Asian Crises: Theory, Evidence, Warning-Signals

41 Pages Posted: 13 Apr 2004

See all articles by Jerome L. Stein

Jerome L. Stein

Brown University - Division of Applied Mathematics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Guay C. Lim

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research

Date Written: March 2004

Abstract

In July 1997, the economies of East Asia became embroiled in one of the worst financial crises of the postwar period. Yet, prior to the crisis, these economies were seen as models of economic growth experiencing sustained growth rates that exceeded those earlier thought unattainable. Why did the market not anticipate the crises? To this end, we review the Asian financial crisis from two related perspectives - whether the crisis was precipitated by a failure of the real exchange rate to be aligned with its fundamental determinants and/or whether the crisis was precipitated by a divergence of the foreign debt from its optimal path. The first perspective is based on a coherent theory of the equilibrium real exchange rate - the NATREX model - that shows how "misalignments" lead to currency crises. The second perspective is based on a model of optimal foreign debt ratio - derived from stochastic optimal control - which shows why "divergences" lead to debt crises. The important point here is that these models suggest important variables which may serve as warning signals to predict crises.

Keywords: asian crises, optimal debt, equilibrium exchange rates, NATREX, stochastic optimal control, warning signals of crises, exchange rate misalignment

JEL Classification: F3, F31, F32, F34, F4

Suggested Citation

Stein, Jerome L. and Lim, Guay C., Asian Crises: Theory, Evidence, Warning-Signals (March 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=528185 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.528185

Jerome L. Stein (Contact Author)

Brown University - Division of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Providence, RI 02912
United States
401-863-2143 (Phone)
401-863-1355 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Guay C. Lim

University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research ( email )

Level 5, FBE Building, 111 Barry Street
161 Barry Street
Carlton, VIC 3053
Australia

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