Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes
39 Pages Posted: 30 Jan 2006
Date Written: January 2002
Abstract
This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on whether crash probabilities are low or high. When we estimate the model on part of the data and then use the parameter estimates to generate predictions for the remainder of the sample, we find that substantial profits may be made. Furthermore, the model correctly forecasts major crashes even on an out-of-sample basis.
Keywords: Exchange rates, emerging market crises, trading strategies
JEL Classification: C33, F32, F37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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