Ability of Accounting and Audit Quality Variables to Predict Bank Failure During the Financial Crisis
29 Pages Posted: 2 Mar 2011 Last revised: 10 Feb 2020
Date Written: January 1, 2011
Abstract
We examine the ability of selected accounting and audit quality variables measured in a period prior to the financial crisis (i.e., the four quarters of 2006), to predict banks that subsequently failed during the financial crisis. These predictor variables include balance sheet strength, loan characteristics, financial reporting discretion, and auditor type and auditor industry specialization. We employ two sets of samples from the US: a troubled banks sample that includes banks that failed in or after 2007 as well as banks classified as being troubled based on profitability, loan quality, and balance sheet position in 2007, and a full sample that includes all banks with available required data. Using the troubled banks sample, we identify five reliable predictors of bank failure: auditor type, Tier 1 capital ratio, proportion of securitized loans, growth in loans, and loan mix. For the larger full sample of banks, we identify ten predictors of bank failure: auditor type, Tier 1 capital ratio, proportion of securitized loans, nonperforming loans, loan loss provisions, growth in commercial loans, growth in real estate loans, growth in overall loans, loan mix, and whether the bank is a public bank.
Keywords: Bank Failure, Troubled Banks, Loan Quality, Loan Loss Provisions, Auditor Reputation, Financial Crisis
JEL Classification: G14, G21, M41, M42
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around
By Rebel A. Cole and Lawrence J. White
-
Financial Crises and Bank Failures: A Review of Prediction Methods
By Yuliya Demyanyk and Iftekhar Hasan
-
Financial Crises and Bank Failures: A Review of Prediction Methods
By Yuliya Demyanyk and Iftekhar Hasan
-
Anatomy of the 2008 Financial Crisis: An Economic Analysis Postmortem
-
Auditor Reputation and Earnings Management: International Evidence from the Banking Industry
-
Religiosity and Earnings Management: International Evidence from the Banking Industry
-
Earnings Management and Initial Public Offerings: The Case of the Depository Industry
By Brian John Adams, Kenneth A. Carow, ...
-
Predicting Failure in the Commercial Banking Industry
By John Tatom and Reza Houston