Valoración de empresas estacionales por descuento de flujos (How to Value a Seasonal Company Discounting Cash Flows)

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: Se pueden valorar empresas estacionales por descuento de flujos utilizando datos anuales, pero éstos requieren algunos ajustes. La forma correcta de valorarlas es utilizando datos mensuales. Los errores debidos a la utilización de datos anuales sin ajustar son grandes. Utilizar la deuda media y las NOF medias no proporciona una buena aproximación al valor de la empresa.

English Abstract: The correct way of valuing seasonal companies by cash flow discounting is to use monthly data. We may use annual data, but it requires some adjustments. To adjust only by using average debt and average working capital requirements does not provide a good approximation.

This paper values a company in which the seasonality is due to the purchases of raw materials: the company buys and pays all raw materials in the moth of December. We show that the equity value calculated using annual data without doing the adjustments understates the true value in a 45% if the valuation is done at the end of December, and overstates the true value in a 38% if the valuation is done at the end of November. The error of adjusting only by using average debt and average working capital requirements ranges from -17.9% to 8.5%.

Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.

Keywords: Cash flow, seasonal companies, monthly data

JEL Classification: G12, G31, M21