Stock Valuation and Investment Strategies

55 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2001

See all articles by Ming Dong

Ming Dong

York University - Schulich School of Business

Zhiwu Chen

University of Hong Kong, Faculty of Business Economics (HKU Business School); Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong

Date Written: June 30, 2001

Abstract

This article studies the relative investment performance of several stock-valuation measures. The first is mispricing based on the valuation model developed by Bakshe and Chen (1998)and extended by Dong (1998) (hereafter, the BCD model). The BCD model relates, in closed form, a stock's fair value to (i) the firm's net earnings per share (EPS). (ii) the expected future EPS growth and (iii) long-term rate. The second is a value/ price (V/P) ratio based on the Lee-Myers-Swaminathan (1999) residual-income model. The other measures are all indirect valuation indicators, including book/market (B/M), earnings/price (E/P), size, and past return momentum. These measures are shown to possess distinct properties. For example, the B/M, E/P and V/P ratios are highly persistent over time: high (low) B/M stocks tend to maintain high (low) B/M ratios. But, the BCD model mispricing is highly mean-reverting: an overpriced group will eventually become underpriced (in about 1.5 years on average), and vice versa. More importantly, the BCD model mispricing, momentum, size V/P and B/M are, in decreasing order, significant ex ante predictors of future returns. The best investment strategy is to combine the BCD model mispricing with momentum rankings. Indeed, if one would hold an equally-weighted portfolio of stocks that are the most underpriced and that have top momentum, the average monthly return from 1979 to 1996 would have been 3.18 percent, with a monthly Jensen's alpha of about 1.5 percent.

Keywords: Stock Valuation, Book/Market, Earnings/Price, Firm Size, Price Momentum, Stock Returns, Investment Management

JEL Classification: G10, G12, G131

Suggested Citation

Dong, Ming and Chen, Zhiwu, Stock Valuation and Investment Strategies (June 30, 2001). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=277008 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.277008

Ming Dong

York University - Schulich School of Business ( email )

4700 Keele Street
Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3
Canada
416-736-2100 ext. 77945 (Phone)
416-736-5687 (Fax)

Zhiwu Chen (Contact Author)

University of Hong Kong, Faculty of Business Economics (HKU Business School) ( email )

Pokfulam Road
Hong Kong
Hong Kong

Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong ( email )

Room 328-348, Main Building
The University of Hong Kong
Pokfulam
Hong Kong

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