Multifactor Efficiency and Bayesian Inference
53 Pages Posted: 19 Oct 2006
Date Written: February 2005
Abstract
This paper reinvestigates the performance of risk-based multifactor models. In particular, we generalize the Bayesian methodology of Shanken (1987b) and Kandel, McCulloch and Stambaugh (1995) from mean-variance efficiency to the ICAPM notion of multifactor efficiency. This methodology uses informative priors and provides a flexible framework to deal with the severe small sample problems that arise when estimating performance measures. We also introduce and theoretically justify a new inefficiency metric that measures the maximum correlation between the market portfolio and any multifactor efficient portfolio, which is used in conjunction with three other existing inefficiency measures. Finally, we present new empirical evidence that neither the two additional Fama-French (1992) factors nor the momentum factor move the market portfolio robustly closer to being multifactor efficient or robustly decrease pricing errors relative to the CAPM.
Keywords: market measures, multifactor efficiency, market portfolios
JEL Classification: G1
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns
By Martin Lettau and Sydney C. Ludvigson
-
Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles
By Ravi Bansal and Amir Yaron
-
Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Interference and Measurement
-
Resurrecting the (C)Capm: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia are Time-Varying
By Martin Lettau and Sydney C. Ludvigson
-
Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?
By Geert Bekaert and Andrew Ang
-
Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?
By Geert Bekaert and Andrew Ang
-
Resurrecting the (C)Capm: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Wre Time-Varying
By Martin Lettau and Sydney C. Ludvigson