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Abstract:
Using data on the monthly returns of hedge funds during the period 1990:01 through 1998:08, we estimate six-factor Jensen alphas for individual hedge funds employing eight different investment styles. We find that about 25 percent of hedge funds earn positive excess returns, and that the frequency and magnitude of funds' excess returns differ markedly by investment style. Using six-factor alphas as a measure of performance, we also analyze performance persistence over one- and two-year horizons and find evidence of significant persistence among both winners and losers. These findings together with our finding that hedge funds that pay managers higher incentive fees also have higher excess returns are consistent with the view that fund manager skill may be a partial explanation for the positive excess returns earned by hedge funds.

Hedge Funds, Hedge Fund Performance, Manager Skill

Abstract:
Using data on the monthly returns of hedge funds during the period 1990:01 through 1998:08, we estimate six-factor Jensen alphas for individual hedge funds employing eight different investment styles. We find that about 25 percent of hedge funds earn positive excess returns, and that the frequency and magnitude of funds' excess returns differ markedly by investment style. Using six-factor alphas as a measure of performance, we also analyze performance persistence over one- and two-year horizons and find evidence of significant persistence among both winners and losers. These findings together with our finding that hedge funds that pay managers higher incentive fees also have higher excess returns are consistent with the view that fund manager skill may be a partial explanation for the positive excess returns earned by hedge funds.

Hedge Funds, Hedge Fund Performance, Manager Skill

Abstract:
This study examines the performance of sixteen different hedge fund and commodity fund investment styles during rising and falling stock prices over the period 1990:01 through 1998:08. Since a primary motivation for investing in hedge funds and commodity funds is to diversify against falling stock prices, it is important to examine the performance of these funds during bear stock markets. The study evaluates hedge funds and commodity funds both as stand-alone assets and as portfolio assets, and in both bull and bear stock markets. In addition, it utilizes the Sharpe ratio as well as alternative safety-first performance criteria to evaluate the funds. We conclude that commodity funds generally provide greater downside protection than do hedge funds. Commodity funds have higher returns in bear markets than do hedge funds, and generally have an inverse correlation with stock returns in bear markets, while hedge funds typically exhibit a higher positive correlation with stock returns in bear markets than in bull markets. However, three hedge fund styles - market-neutral, event-driven, and global macro - provide fairly good downside protection while still providing more attractive returns over all markets than do commodity funds.

Abstract:
This study examines the performance of sixteen different hedge fund and commodity fund investment styles during rising and falling stock prices over the period 1990:01 through 1998:08. Since a primary motivation for investing in hedge funds and commodity funds is to diversify against falling stock prices, it is important to examine the performance of these funds during bear stock markets. The study evaluates hedge funds and commodity funds both as stand-alone assets and as portfolio assets, and in both bull and bear stock markets. In addition, it utilizes the Sharpe ratio as well as alternative safety-first performance criteria to evaluate the funds. We conclude that commodity funds generally provide greater downside protection than do hedge funds. Commodity funds have higher returns in bear markets than do hedge funds, and generally have an inverse correlation with stock returns in bear markets, while hedge funds typically exhibit a higher positive correlation with stock returns in bear markets than in bull markets. However, three hedge fund styles - market-neutral, event-driven, and global macro - provide fairly good downside protection while still providing more attractive returns over all markets than do commodity funds.

Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic volatility on nonfinancial firms' cash holding behavior. Using an augmented cash buffer-stock model, we demonstrate that an increase in macroeconomic volatility will cause the cross-sectional distribution of firms' cash-to-asset ratios to narrow. We test this prediction on a panel of non-financial firms drawn from the annual COMPUSTAT database covering the period 1957-2000, and find that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, firms behave more homogeneously. Our results are shown to be robust to the inclusion of the levels of several macroeconomic factors.

Cash holdings, macroeconomic uncertainty, time series, ARCH, non-financial firms

Abstract:
In this paper, we use a novel data set containing prices from bazaars, convenience stores, and supermarkets in Istanbul to re-examine the relationship between price dispersion and inflation. Although existing evidence is mixed, we find positive and significant relationships between dispersion, on the one hand, and lagged dispersion and unexpected product-specific inflation on the other. We also find evidence that dispersion is initially decreasing in anticipated aggregate inflation but is eventually increasing. Finally, average price duration and dispersion are lowest in the bazaar. This is intuitive, since menu and search costs should be minimal in that market structure.

inflation, market structure, menu cost models, micro panel data, price dispersion

Abstract:
We study strategic trade policy design when governments are incompletely informed about the market demand. Two symmetric, homogeneous product Cournot firms, one in each country, compete in a third country market. Contrary to what common sense would suggest, we show that if governments are less informed on the stochastic market demand both countries will be better off. Also contrary to findings in the literature, we show that when the government is partially informed, although quantity controls would be optimal for both high and low levels of demand uncertainty, subsidies are preferred for intermediate levels.

Abstract:
This paper empirically investigates the link between political patronage and bank performance for Ukraine during 2003-2005. We find significant differences between politically affiliated and non-affiliated banks. The data suggest that affiliated banks have significantly lower interest rate margins and increase their capitalization. Furthermore, we show that the level of activity of affiliated deputies in parliament has a positive (negative) impact on banks capitalization ratio (interest rate margin). Our findings imply, in line with the related literature, that political affiliation has important effects on banks behaviour.

Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of permanent and transitory components of the exchange rate on firms' profitability under imperfect information. Utilizing a signal extraction framework, we show that the variances of these components of the exchange rate process will have indeterminate effects on the firm's growth rate of profits, but will have predictable effects on its volatility. An increase in the variance of the permanent (transitory) component in the exchange rate process leads to greater (lesser) variability in the growth rate of the firm's profits, thus establishing that the source of exchange rate volatility matters in analyzing its effects. Implications of our theoretical findings for the empirical modeling of the underlying relationships are discussed.

Abstract:
This paper investigates a government's choice of strategic trade policy when the domestic firm observes a private noisy signal about the stochastic market demand while in competition with a rival firm. The government chooses between quantity controls and subsidies to maximize profits of the domestic firm. Assuming that firms compete a la Cournot in a third country, we show that the optimal trade policy depends not only on demand uncertainty but also on the predictability of the true market demand by the firms.