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Abstract:
In this paper we use a model of vertical product differentiation to cast doubt on the general validity of the import demand function as specified in macroeconomic models. The empirical importance of our theoretical concerns is then established. According to our first hypothesis, the share of a good's imports in total imports is non-increasing in domestic wages if the country has comparative advantage in high-quality varieties of this good. The second hypothesis states that the share of a good's imports is increasing in non-wage domestic income if the country has comparative advantage in high-quality varieties of this good.

Abstract:
In this paper we use a model of vertical product differentiation to cast doubt on the general validity of the import demand function as specified in macroeconomic models. The empirical importance of our theoretical concerns is then examined with the aid of two hypotheses. According to the first hypothesis, an increase in domestic wages is expected to reduce the share in total imports for goods in which the domestic comparative advantage is in high quality varieties of these goods. The second hypothesis states that an increase in non-wage income will increase the share of a good's imports if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good. We find considerable empirical support for both hypotheses in the data for Germany, Japan and the United States.

Abstract:
In this paper we develop an open economy model of firms' pricing behaviour under imperfect competition. This allows us to introduce various terms of trade effects influencing the firm's pricing decision, in addition to labour costs which dominate most closed-economy specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips (NKPC) curve. Our analysis gives rise to a hybrid open economy NKPC which nests existing closed and open economy specifications adopted in empirical work. We estimate this specification for the G7 economies and find that the US, UK and Canada typically enjoy less inertia in price setting than the European G7 economies and Japan and that these estimates are both plausible and in line with survey evidence. We also find that the proportion of firms which use simple backward-looking rules of thumb in price setting is greater when the frequency of price change is smaller. Finally there is evidence of significant asymmetries in price setting amongst EMU members.

Abstract:
This paper searches for a general equilibrium model of optimal growth and endogenous fiscal policy with the aim of explaining the interaction between private agents and fiscal authorities in the U.S., West Germany, Japan and the U.K. over the period 1960-1996. Our search is conducted in the context of popular models with closed-form analytical solutions since this is necessary to formally test the models' theoretical restrictions. In West Germany and Japan there is evidence that the fiscal authorities act as optimizing Stackelberg leaders who are concerned about the current welfare of private agents. In contrast, the fiscal authorities in the U.S. and U.K. do not appear to act as optimizing agents; instead, they follow simple rule-of-thumb policy rules. In all countries, the tax smoothing model, according to which policymakers find it optimal not to react to the state of the economy, is rejected.

Abstract:
In this paper we study the quantitative macroeconomic effects of public education spending in USA for the post-war period. Using comparable measures of human and physical capital, from Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1989, 1992a,b), we calibrate a standard dynamic general equilibrium model where human capital is the engine of long-run endogenous growth and government education spending is justified by externalities in human capital. Our base calibration, based on moderate sized human capital externalities, suggests that public spending on education is both growth and welfare promoting. However, given that public education spending crowds-out private consumption, the welfare maximising size of the government is less than the growth maximising one. Our results further suggest that welfare gains, as high as four percent of consumption, are obtainable if the composition of public spending can be altered in favour of education spending relative to the other components of total government spending.

Abstract:
A persistent criticism of general equilibrium models of monetary policy which incorporate nominal inertia in the form of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is that they fail to capture the extent of inflation inertia in the data. In this paper we derive a general equilibrium model based on optimising behaviour, but which also implies a data consistent NKPC. Specifically our model accounts for nominal inertia in both price and wage setting as well for habits in consumption. Using US and European data from 1970 to 1998 our parameter estimates reveal that (i) there is relatively more inertia in price-setting in Europe; (ii) wage contracts last longer in the US; (iii) the extent of backward-looking behaviour in price and wage setting is statistically significant but small in both the US and Europe; and (iv) significant habits effects are present in European consumption. Finally we simulate the effects of monetary policy and find that while the magnitude of the impact of monetary policy on the endogenous variables in our estimated models are similar to other econometric studies, the dynamic paths for variables display less inertia than is typically found in studies which use output gaps to proxy changes in marginal costs.

Abstract:
In this paper we study the link between elections, fiscal policy and economic growth/fluctuations. The set-up is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of growth and endogenously chosen fiscal policy, in which two political parties can alternate in power. The party in office chooses jointly how much to tax and how to allocate its total expenditure between public consumption and production services. The main theoretical prediction is that forward-looking incumbents, with uncertain prospects of re-election, find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies, and that this lowers economic growth. The model is estimated using quarterly data for Germany, the UK and the US from 1960 to 1999. Our econometric results provide clear support for the main theoretical prediction. They also give plausible and significant estimates for the productivity of public production services, the weight which households place on public consumption services relative to private consumption and the time discount rate. Moreover, we find that changes in electoral uncertainty produce the longest lasting fluctuations in the European economies followed by the US.

political uncertainty, economic growth and fluctuations, optimal policy

Abstract:
In the time domain, the observed cyclical behavior of the real wage hides a range of economic influences that give rise to cycles of differing lengths and strengths. This may serve to produce a distorted picture of wage cyclicality. Here, we develop frequency domain methods that allow us decompose wages into cyclical components and to assess the relative contribution of each component to overall variation. These are discussed in relation to wages alone (the univariate case) and to wages in relation to production or employment-based measures of the cycle (multivariate). In the multivariate dimension, we derive methods for testing (i)lead-lag relationships and (ii) time dependency of lengths of cycles. We establish that real wages are strongly pro-cyclical and that the business cycle is the dominant associated influence.

Real Wages, Frequency Domain, Univariate Measure, Multivariate Measures, Phase Shift, Business Cycle

Abstract:
In this paper we construct a stylised general equilibrium macromodel to show that demand led expansions may have unexpected effects when market imperfections lead to changes in labour productivity. We find some empirical support, from a number of European countries, for the main predictions of this model that unemployment and output are positively related when unemployment is low and inversely related when unemployment is high. An important policy insight that emerges from this study is that an exogenous stimulation of aggregate demand can only raise output and reduce unemployment provided the economy is operating relatively efficiently. However, when an economy is trapped in an inefficient equilibrium, positive demand shocks can lead, perversely, to an increase in unemployment.

Efficiency Wages, Effort Supply, Monopolistic Competition, Multiple Equilibria, Stability, Fiscal Multiplier

Abstract:
In contrast to much recent work regarding the causes of European unemployment, in this paper, we emphasise the importance of capital accumulation. But unlike the few previous studies which have examined the relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment, we argue that what matters for the evolution of employment [and the unemployment rate] is not the absolute growth rate of a country's capital stock, but its evolution relative to other countries' capital stock. The empirical validity of the above statement is demonstrated for almost all OECD countries using quarterly time-series data from 1961-1995. More detailed evidence is also presented for Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.

Abstract:
In this paper we develop a multi-sector model of firms' pricing behaviour under imperfect competition. We allow for the fact that some goods sold will be for final consumption, while others will be used as intermediate goods in further production. We assume that price setters are constrained by the existence of Calvo (1983) contracts which enables us to measure the extent of price inertia across industrial sectors. We further allow for the possibility that some firms set prices to maximise the discounted value of profits, while others set prices according to a backward-looking rule-of-thumb. We then estimate the resulting price-setting equations for 18 US manufacturing industries defined at the SIC 2-digit level over the period 1959 to 1996. We find that there is statistically significant variability in estimates of price stickiness, ranging from 4 months to almost 1.5 years with significantly more inertia in the setting of durable goods prices. We also find that estimates of backward-looking price-setting behaviour vary, with some industries acting in a purely forward-looking manner, while others are characterized by almost 50 per cent of firms setting prices in a backward-looking fashion. Finally we find that firms in less competitive industries (characterized by higher average mark-ups) tend to adjust prices less frequently and are less likely to do so in a forward-looking manner.

Abstract:
We show in this paper that important insights into the cyclical behaviour of wages can be gained by dividing (real) average hourly earnings into their straight-time hourly wage and overtime components. Our motivation is based on the idea of employment-contingent contracts. BLS published and unpublished statistics are used to decompose average earnings into (i) the straight-time wage rate, (ii) the "mark-up" needed to achieve an overtime worker's earnings rate, and (iii) the proportion of workers working overtime. Using monthly manufacturing data from 1962?1997, cyclicality measures of these components are based on contemporaneous bivariate correlations using four alternative detrending methods while stability is examined using recursive estimation and testing methods. While the wage rate is generally acyclical and unstable, the other two components are highly pro-cyclical and relatively stable.

Abstract:
In this paper we study the link between elections, fiscal policy and aggregate fluctuations. The set-up is a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating both technology and political re-election shocks. The later are incorporated via a two-party model with elections. The main theoretical prediction is that forward-looking incumbents, with uncertain prospects of re-election, find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies, and that this hurts capital accumulation. Our econometric estimation, using U.S. data, finds a statistically significant link between electoral uncertainty and policy instruments and in turn macroeconomic outcomes.

political uncertainty, business cycles & growth, optimal policy, hybrid maximum likelihood estimation

Abstract:
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of countercyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity which is the particular market failure justifying policy intervention. We subject the model to productivity shocks and use either government consumption or investment to react to the output gap or the public debt-to-output ratio. If the object of fiscal policy is purely to stabilize output or debt volatility, then our results suggest substantial reductions can be obtained, especially with respect to output. In stark contrast, however, a formal general equilibrium welfare assessment of the volatility implications of these alternative instrument/target combinations reveals the welfare gains from active policy, measured as a share of consumption, to be very modest.

Fiscal Policy, Welfare, Europe

Abstract:
Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate cycles in output, consumption, investment and hours. To contextualize our findings, we also assess whether the human capital model or the standard real business cycle (RBC) model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. We find that while neither of the workhorse growth models uniformly dominates the other across all variables and forecast horizons, the two-sector model provides a far better fit to the data. Some other key results are first, that Hicks-neutral shocks explain a greater share of output and consumption variation at shorter-forecast horizons whereas human capital productivity innovations dominate at longer ones. Second, the combined explanatory power of the two technology shocks in the human capital model is greater than the Hicks-neutral shock in the RBC model in the medium- and long-term for output and consumption. Finally, the RBC model outperforms the two-sector model with respect to explaining the observed variation in investment and hours.

endogenous growth, human capital, real business cycles, Bayesian estimation, VAR errors

Abstract:
Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate cycles in output, consumption, investment and hours. To contextualize our findings, we also assess whether the human capital model or the standard real business cycle (RBC) model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. We find that while neither of the workhorse growth models uniformly dominates the other across all variables and forecast horizons, the two-sector model provides a far better fit to the data. Some other key results are first, that Hicks-neutral shocks explain a greater share of output and consumption variation at shorter-forecast horizons whereas human capital productivity innovations dominate at longer ones. Second, the combined explanatory power of the two technology shocks in the human capital model is greater than the Hicks-neutral shock in the RBC model in the medium- and long-term for output and consumption. Finally, the RBC model outperforms the two-sector model with respect to explaining the observed variation in
investment and hours.

endogenous growth, human capital, real business cycles, Bayesian estimation, VAR errors

Abstract:
This paper uses a model of trade in vertically differentiated products to examine the effects of "excessive wage" increases (i.e. above productivity) on the volume of commodity imports. The model predicts that for commodities, in which the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties, an increase in "excessive wages" may result in a decrease in the volume of imports. The empirical validity of the model's predictions is demonstrated with the use of disaggregated Japanese import data for the period 1967-95. We also find that the aggregate volume of Japanese imports is not responsive to "excessive wage" changes.

Abstract:
In this paper, we quantitatively assess the welfare implications of alternative public education spending rules. To this end, we employ a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which human capital externalities and public education expenditures, financed by distorting taxes, enhance the productivity of private education choices. We allow public education spending, as share of output, to respond to various aggregate indicators in an attempt to minimize the market imperfection due to human capital externalities. We also expose the economy to varying degrees of uncertainty via changes in the variance of total factor productivity shocks. Our results indicate that, in the face of increasing aggregate uncertainty, active policy can significantly outperform passive policy (i.e. maintaining a constant public education to output ratio) but only when the policy instrument is successful in smoothing the growth rate of human capital.

education spending, growth, welfare

Abstract:
This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland's (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model's errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model's fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.

Real Business Cycle, Bayesian estimation, VARMA errors

Abstract:
This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model's posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland's (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model's errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model's fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.

Real Business Cycle, Bayesian estimation, VARMA errors

Abstract:
This article studies the growth and welfare effects of public education spending in the USA for the post-war period. We calibrate a standard dynamic general equilibrium model, where human capital is the engine of long-run endogenous growth. Our results suggest that while increases in public education spending raise growth, these increases are not necessarily welfare promoting. Welfare gains however can be realized if increases in public education spending are accompanied by changes in the government tax-spending mix. (JEL codes: H52, E62)

Abstract:
In this paper we estimate the marginal rate of substitution between aggregate per-capita consumption and per-capita government expenditure on goods and services using U.S. quarterly data over the period 1953 to 1993. This estimate is an important input to any attempt to assess the overall effectiveness of fiscal policy. Other recent consumption studies which incorporate the effects of government expenditure have failed to establish a stable estimate of the marginal rate of substitution. We argue that this failure results from imposing the unrealistic assumption that this parameter is constant. In contrast, we allow themarginal rate of substitution to depend on both the level and composition of government spending and provide strong econometric evidence in support of this claim.