Charles F. Manski

Northwestern University - Department of Economics

Professor

2003 Sheridan Road

Evanston, IL 60208

United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

  • Northwestern University - Department of Economics

    • Email
    • Tel: 847-491-8223
    • Fax: 847-491-7001
SCHOLARLY PAPERS

59

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920

CROSSREF CITATIONS

1,146

Scholarly Papers (59)

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1.

Economic Analysis of Social Interactions

NBER Working Paper No. w7580
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 05 May 2000 Last Revised: 20 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 196 (281,962)
Citation 69

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2.

Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

NBER Working Paper No. w11978
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 20 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2022
Joseph Engelberg, Charles F. Manski and Jared Williams
University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Rady School of Management, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of South Florida
Downloads 102 (476,388)
Citation 43

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3.

First- and Second-Order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence

Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 81, 2013
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 22 Mar 2012 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2015
Charles F. Manski and Claudia Neri
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of St. Gallen
Downloads 87 (527,862)
Citation 8

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decision-making, beliefs, subjective expectations, experiments

4.

Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets

NBER Working Paper No. w10359
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 87 (527,862)
Citation 8

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5.

Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972

NBER Working Paper No. w1539
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 28 Dec 2001 Last Revised: 17 Sep 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 87 (527,862)

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6.

How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

NBER Working Paper No. w9926
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 29 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 83 (543,251)
Citation 13

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7.

Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns

NBER Working Paper No. w11313
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 09 Jun 2005 Last Revised: 07 Apr 2023
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 82 (547,206)
Citation 208

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8.

Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling

NBER Working Paper No. t0224
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 19 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 12 Feb 2023
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 71 (594,022)
Citation 11

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9.

Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude

NBER Working Paper No. w16207
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 26 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 15 Apr 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 69 (603,351)

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10.

Measuring Consumer Uncertainty about Future Inflation

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 415
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 21 Dec 2009
Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Charles F. Manski, Giorgio Topa and Wilbert van der Klaauw
University of Southern California, Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 69 (603,351)
Citation 29

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inflation expectations, forecast uncertainty, wage expectations, probabilistic survey questions

11.

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

Downloads 69 (603,351)
Citation 61

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 28 Oct 2008
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 35 (831,353)
Citation 1

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

NBER Working Paper No. w14451
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 03 Nov 2008 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2022
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (856,842)

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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7030
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 18 Dec 2008
Asher Blass, Saul Lach and Charles F. Manski
Bank of Israel - Research Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (1,149,502)
Citation 17
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Choice probabilities, stated choices, WTP for electricity reliability

12.

Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions

NBER Working Paper No. w8718
Number of pages: 54 Posted: 17 Jan 2002 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2022
Jeff Dominitz, Charles F. Manski and Jordan Heinz
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 69 (603,351)
Citation 1

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13.

"Will Social Security Be There for You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits

NBER Working Paper No. w9798
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 23 Jun 2003 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2022
Jeff Dominitz, Jordan Heinz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Independent and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 58 (658,660)
Citation 1

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14.

Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-Onset Dementia

NBER Working Paper No. w26125
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 05 Aug 2019 Last Revised: 21 May 2023
Pamela Giustinelli, Pamela Giustinelli, Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Bocconi Universityaffiliation not provided to SSRN, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University
Downloads 55 (675,336)
Citation 7

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15.

Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks

NBER Working Paper No. w11675
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 12 Dec 2005 Last Revised: 27 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 55 (675,336)

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16.

Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w6908
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 03 May 1999 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski and John D. Straub
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 52 (692,630)
Citation 2

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17.

Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment

NBER Working Paper No. w14378
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 08 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 16 Oct 2022
William A. Brock and Charles F. Manski
University of Wisconsin, Madison - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 47 (723,898)

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18.

Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w4937
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 25 May 2006 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 46 (730,277)
Citation 41

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19.

Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w5690
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 19 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 46 (730,277)
Citation 6

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20.

The Lure of Incredible Certitude

NBER Working Paper No. w24905
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 22 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 45 (736,819)
Citation 3

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21.

Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence

NBER Working Paper No. w11848
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 04 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 17 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 45 (736,819)
Citation 4

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22.

The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation

NBER Working Paper No. t0148
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 29 May 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 45 (736,819)
Citation 1

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23.

Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections

NBER Working Paper No. w17455
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 23 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 13 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 43 (750,413)

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24.

Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling

NBER Working Paper No. w4936
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 18 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 29 Dec 2022
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 43 (750,413)
Citation 12

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25.

Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w17755
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 21 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 08 Jul 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 42 (757,328)
Citation 4

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26.

Partial Prescriptions for Decisions with Partial Knowledge

NBER Working Paper No. w14396
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 10 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 42 (757,328)

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27.

Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations

NBER Working Paper No. t0263
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 03 Nov 2000 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 41 (764,383)
Citation 10

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28.

Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: with Application to Randomized Experiments

NBER Working Paper No. t0242
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 17 Mar 2000 Last Revised: 02 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 41 (764,383)
Citation 37

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29.

Bounding the Predictive Values of Covid-19 Antibody Tests

NBER Working Paper No. w27226
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 26 May 2020 Last Revised: 24 May 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 40 (771,763)

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30.

Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, with Application to Drug Approval

NBER Working Paper No. w13312
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 24 Aug 2007 Last Revised: 17 Nov 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 40 (771,763)

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31.

Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise

NBER Working Paper No. w23418
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 24 May 2017 Last Revised: 28 Jun 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 38 (786,071)
Citation 21

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32.

Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles

NBER Working Paper No. w8984
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 07 Jun 2002 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2022
Charles F. Manski and Joram Mayshar
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Department of Economics
Downloads 38 (786,071)

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33.

Hospitalization Rates in a Longitudinal US Cohort of Insured Patients with Cirrhosis

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 27 Jun 2023
Praneet Polineni, Bima J. Hasjim, Michael Gmeiner, Eleena Koep, Alexandra Harris, Filip Obradovic, Federico Crippa, Jonathan Jung, Alexander A. Huang, Zachary C. Dietch, Andres Duarte-Rojo, Vinayak S. Rohan, Laura Kulik, Julianna M. Doll, Therese Banea, Gwen E. McNatt, Mitchell Paukner, Lihui Zhao, Daniel Borja-Cacho, Lisa B. VanWagner, Charles F. Manski and Daniela P. Ladner
Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), London School of Economics, UnitedHealth Group, Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), University of Iowa - Organ Transplant Center, Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC), University of Texas at Dallas - Southwestern Medical Center, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Northwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative (NUTORC)
Downloads 34 (816,807)

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Cirrhosis, hospitalizations, heart failure, COPD, epidemiology

34.

How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions

NBER Working Paper No. w21701
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 09 Nov 2015 Last Revised: 19 Apr 2023
Charles F. Manski and John V. Pepper
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (832,840)
Citation 8

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35.

Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics

NBER Working Paper No. w20098
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 06 May 2014 Last Revised: 02 Jun 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (832,840)

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36.

Estimating the Covid-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem

NBER Working Paper No. w27023
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 20 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 04 May 2023
Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University
Downloads 31 (841,023)
Citation 36

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37.

Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation

NBER Working Paper No. w18204
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 07 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 30 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 30 (849,364)
Citation 1

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38.

Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 16 Feb 2022
Stephen DeCanio, Charles F. Manski and Alan Sanstad
University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 28 (866,298)

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Climate policy, minimax regret, discount rate, model uncertainty, integrated assessment

39.

Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics

NBER Working Paper No. w20432
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 01 May 2022
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 27 (875,105)

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40.

Vaccination Planning Under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19

NBER Working Paper No. w28446
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 08 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (893,277)

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41.

When Consensus Choice Dominates Individualism: Jensen's Inequality and Collective Decisions Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w15172
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 21 Jul 2009 Last Revised: 17 Jun 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 25 (893,277)

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42.

Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study

NBER Working Paper No. w24559
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 02 May 2018 Last Revised: 08 Feb 2023
Pamela Giustinelli, Pamela Giustinelli, Charles F. Manski and Francesca Molinari
Bocconi Universityaffiliation not provided to SSRN, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Cornell University - Department of Economics
Downloads 23 (911,856)
Citation 10

Abstract:

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43.

Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w23915
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 09 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 07 May 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (921,306)

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44.

Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing Covid-19 Drugs

NBER Working Paper No. w27293
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 10 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 28 Jan 2023
Charles F. Manski and Aleksey Tetenov
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Geneva
Downloads 21 (930,904)

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45.

Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald

NBER Working Paper No. w26596
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 31 Dec 2019 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 21 (930,904)

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46.

Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions

NBER Working Paper No. w25504
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 04 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 10 Mar 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 20 (940,839)

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47.

Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment

NBER Working Paper No. w22643
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 15 May 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 19 (950,647)

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48.

Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting

NBER Working Paper No. w29716
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 07 Feb 2022 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2022
Stephen DeCanio, Charles F. Manski and Alan Sanstad
University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Independent
Downloads 15 (990,891)

Abstract:

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49.

Addressing Partial Identification in Climate Modeling and Policy Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w28449
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 08 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2022
Charles F. Manski, Alan Sanstad and Stephen DeCanio
Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)
Downloads 13 (1,011,052)
Citation 1

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50.

Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: With Focus on Personalized Medicine

NBER Working Paper No. w29358
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 11 Oct 2021 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 12 (1,020,761)
Citation 1

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51.

Comprehensive Oos Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory

NBER Working Paper No. w32269
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 25 Mar 2024
Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski
NORC at the University of Chicago and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 6 (1,074,259)
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52.

Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality: With Focus on Discrete Choice

NBER Working Paper No. w31349
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 12 Jun 2023 Last Revised: 26 Jun 2023
Charles F. Manski and Eytan Sheshinski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Downloads 6 (1,074,259)
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53.

Using Measures of Race to Make Clinical Predictions: Decision Making, Patient Health, and Fairness

NBER Working Paper No. w30700
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 06 Dec 2022 Last Revised: 21 May 2023
Charles F. Manski, John Mullahy and Atheendar Venkataramani
Northwestern University - Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin - Madison - Department of Population Health Sciences and University of Pennsylvania
Downloads 5 (1,081,959)
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54.

Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-Reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups

NBER Working Paper No. w30461
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 19 Sep 2022 Last Revised: 14 Apr 2023
Sheyu Li, Valentyn Litvin and Charles F. Manski
Sichuan University - Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Centre, Northwestern University and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 3 (1,096,585)
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55.

Using Limited Trial Evidence to Credibly Choose Treatment Dosage When Efficacy and Adverse Effects Weakly Increase with Dose

NBER Working Paper No. w31305
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 05 Jun 2023 Last Revised: 16 Jul 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 2 (1,103,661)
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56.

Credible Social Planning Under Uncertainty

NBER Working Paper No. w31456
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 17 Jul 2023
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (1,111,108)
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57.

Choosing Treatment Policies Under Ambiguity

Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 25-49, 2011
Posted: 31 Aug 2011
Charles F. Manski
Northwestern University - Department of Economics

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58.

Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome

Posted: 17 Jul 2002
Charles F. Manski and Elie T. Tamer
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Harvard University

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59.

Regressions, Short and Long

Posted: 17 Jul 2002
Philip J. Cross and Charles F. Manski
Georgetown University - Department of Economics and Northwestern University - Department of Economics

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