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Abstract:
Standard formulas for valuing the equity of going concerns require prediction of payoffs "to infinity" but practical analysis requires that they be predicted over finite horizons. This truncation inevitably involves (often troublesome) "terminal value" calculations. This paper contrasts dividend discount techniques, discounted cash flow analysis, and techniques based on accrual earnings when applied to a finite-horizon valuation. Valuations based on average ex-post payoffs over various horizons, with and without terminal value calculations, are compared with (ex-ante) market prices to give an indication of the error introduced by each technique in truncating the horizon. Comparisons of these errors show that accrual earnings techniques dominate free cash flow and dividend discounting approaches. Further, the relevant accounting features of techniques that make them less than ideal for finite horizon analysis are discovered. Conditions where a given technique requires particularly long forecasting horizons are identified and the performance of the alternative techniques under those conditions is examined.

Abstract:
This paper outlines a financial statement analysis for use in equity valuation. Standard profitability analysis is incorporated, and extended, and is complemented with an analysis of growth. The perspective is one of forecasting payoffs to equities. So financial statement analysis is presented first as a matter of pro forma analysis of the future, with forecasted ratios viewed as building blocks of forecasts of payoffs. The analysis of current financial statements is then seen as a matter of identifying current ratios as predictors of the future ratios that drive equity payoffs. The financial statement analysis is hierarchical, with ratios lower in the ordering identified as finer information about those higher up. To provide historical benchmarks for forecasting, typical values for ratios are documented for the period 1963-1996, along with their cross-sectional variation and correlation. And, again with a view to forecasting, the time series behavior of many of the ratios is also described and their typical "long-run, steady-state" levels are documented.

Abstract:
It is common to apply multipliers to earnings and book value to calculate approximate equity values. However, applying a price-earnings multiple or a price-to-book multiple typically produces two valuations and the analyst is left with the question of how to combine these into one valuation. This paper calculates weights that do this. It shows that these weights differ over the difference between earnings and book value and systematically so over time: when earnings are small compared to book value the weights are different from when earnings are large relative to book value, and they vary in a non-linear way over the difference between the two. The weights have the interpretation of combining forecasts of future earnings based on earnings and book value separately into one composite forecast that uses both pieces of information together. So the paper calculates a second set of weights to ascertain how the two numbers are combined to forecast one-year-ahead earnings and three-years-ahead earnings. The calculated weights are applied out of sample to ascertain their predictive ability against other benchmarks.

Abstract:
Quality of earnings questions arise when firms that practice conservative accounting change the level of their investment in net operating assets: increases in net operating assets create "hidden reserves," depressing earnings, and decreases in investment release hidden reserves into earnings. This paper develops diagnostics that capture this joint effect of investment and conservative accounting and finds that the diagnostics forecast differences in future return on net operating assets from the current return on net operating assets. Moreover, the diagnostics forecast stock returns, indicating that the stock market does not appreciate how conservatism and investment combine to raise quality questions about reported earnings.

Abstract:
This paper lays out alternative equity valuation models that involve forecasting for finite periods and shows how they are related to each other. It contrasts dividend discounting models, discounted cash flow modes, and "residual income" models based on accrual accounting. It shows that some models that are apparently different yield the same valuation. It gives the general form of the terminal value calculation in these models and shows how this calculation serves to correct errors in the model. It also shows that all models can be interpreted as providing a particular specification of the terminal value for the dividend discount model and in so doing provides the terminal value calculation for the dividend discount formula.

Abstract:
This paper provides a structured financial statement analysis that informs about the sustainability (or persistence) of earnings and the P/E ratio. The P/E ratio measures the amount that investors pay for a dollar of current earnings. Investors buy future earnings, so should pay less for current earnings if the earnings cannot be sustained in the future. If earnings are temporarily high, investors should pay less per dollar of earnings than if earnings were temporarily depressed. While income statements identify some transitory items, the investor is still left with uncertainty as to whether the remaining earnings are sustainable. This paper estimates a model that supplies probabilities of the sustainability of earnings. The model aggregates information in the financial statements into a composite score that serves as a "red flag" about the sustainability of earnings. In out-of-sample prediction tests, the scoring reliably identifies non-sustainable earnings, and also explains cross-sectional differences in P/E ratios. The paper also finds that stock returns are predictable when traded P/E ratios differ from a line fitted to sustainable earnings scores. So, the analysis either points investors to stocks with different risk (and thus different expected returns) or to stocks where earnings are mispriced given the information about their sustainability.

sustainable earnings, Price/Earnings ratios, financial statement analysis

Abstract:
A claim is commonly made that cash and accrual accounting methods for valuing equities must always yield equivalent valuations. A recent paper by Lundholm and O'Keefe (Contemporary Accounting Research, Summer, 2001), for example, claims that, because of this equivalence, there is nothing to be learned from empirical comparison of valuation models. So they dismiss recent research that has shown that accrual accounting residual income models and earnings capitalization models perform, over a range of conditions, better than cash flow or dividend discount models. This paper demonstrates, with examples, that the claim is misquided. Practice inevitably involves forecasting over finite,truncated horizons and the accounting specified in a model - cash versus accrual accounting in particular - is pertinent to valuation with finite horizon forecasting. Indeed, the issue of choosing a valuation model is an issue of specifying pro forma accounting, and so, for finite horizon forecasts, one cannot be indifferent to the accounting.

Equity valuation; Dividend discounting; Discounted cash flow; Accrual accounting

Abstract:
A claim is commonly made that cash and accrual accounting methods for valuing equities must always yield equivalent valuations. A recent paper by Lundholm and O'Keefe (Contemporary Accounting Research, Summer, 2001), for example, claims that, because of this equivalence, there is nothing to be learned from empirical comparison of valuation models. So they dismiss recent research that has shown that accrual accounting residual income models and earnings capitalization models perform, over a range of conditions, better than cash flow or dividend discount models. This paper demonstrates, with examples, that the claim is misquided. Practice inevitably involves forecasting over finite,truncated horizons and the accounting specified in a model - cash versus accrual accounting in particular - is pertinent to valuation with finite horizon forecasting. Indeed, the issue of choosing a valuation model is an issue of specifying pro forma accounting, and so, for finite horizon forecasts, one cannot be indifferent to the accounting.

Equity valuation; Dividend discounting; Discounted cash flow; Accrual accounting

Abstract:
This paper presents a financial statement analysis that distinguishes leverage that arises in financing activities from leverage that arises in operations. The analysis yields two leveraging equations, one for borrowing to finance operations and one for borrowing in the course of operations. These leveraging equations describe how the two types of leverage affect book rates of return on equity. An empirical analysis shows that the financial statement analysis explains cross-sectional differences in current and future rates of return as well as in price-to-book ratios, which are based on expected rates of return on equity. The paper therefore concludes that balance sheet line items for operating liabilities are priced differently than those dealing with financing liabilities. Accordingly, financial statement analysis that distinguishes the two types of liabilities aids in the forecasting of future profitability and the evaluation of appropriate price-to-book ratios.

Financing leverage; Operating liability leverage; Rate of return on equity; Price-to-book ratio

Abstract:
During the recent stock market bubble, the traditional financial reporting model was assailed as a backward looking system, out of date in the Information Age. With the bursting of the bubble, the quality of financial reporting is again under scrutiny, but now for not adhering to traditional principles of sound earnings measurement, asset and liability recognition. This paper is a retrospective on the quality of financial reporting during the 1990s. Did reporting under U.S. GAAP perform well during the bubble, or is its quality suspect? My premise is that financial reporting should serve as an anchor during bubbles, to check speculative beliefs. With a focus on the shareholder as customer, the paper asks whether shareholders were well served or whether financial reporting helped to pyramid earnings and stock prices. The scorecard is mixed. A number of quality features of accounting are identified. Inevitable imperfections due to measurement difficulties are recognized, as a quality warning to analysts and investors. And a number of failures of GAAP and financial disclosures are identified which, if not recognized, can promote momentum investing and stock market bubbles.

quality of earnings, financial reporting, stock market bubbles

Abstract:
During the recent stock market bubble, the traditional financial reporting model was assailed as a backward looking system, out of date in the Information Age. With the bursting of the bubble, the quality of financial reporting is again under scrutiny, but now for not adhering to traditional principles of sound earnings measurement, asset and liability recognition. This paper is a retrospective on the quality of financial reporting during the 1990s. Did reporting under U.S. GAAP perform well during the bubble, or is its quality suspect? My premise is that financial reporting should serve as an anchor during bubbles, to check speculative beliefs. With a focus on the shareholder as customer, the paper asks whether shareholders were well served or whether financial reporting helped to pyramid earnings and stock prices. The scorecard is mixed. A number of quality features of accounting are identified. Inevitable imperfections due to measurement difficulties are recognized, as a quality warning to analysts and investors. And a number of failures of GAAP and financial disclosures are identified which, if not recognized, can promote momentum investing and stock market bubbles.

quality of earnings, financial reporting, stock market bubbles

Abstract:
Under the rules of accrual accounting, free cash flow from operations reduces the book value of operations but does not affect the book value of shareholders' equity. Earnings from operations, on the other hand, increase both the book value of operations and shareholders' equity. In effect, accrual accounting rules prescribe that earnings add to shareholder value but free cash flow is irrelevant to the valuation of equity. This paper documents that the stock market prices equity shares according to this prescription, and thus provides a validation of accrual accounting. While earnings from operations are priced positively in the market, free cash flow is priced negatively; indeed, a dollar more of free cash flow is associated with approximately a dollar less in the market value of the firm. Controlling for the cash investment component of free cash flow, "cash flow from operations" also reduces the market value of the firm dollar-for-dollar. Further, annual equity returns are unrelated to the free cash flow that firms generate.

Equity pricing, accruals, cash flows

Abstract:
This paper lays out a decomposition of book-to-price (B/P) that derives from the accounting for book value and that articulates precisely how B/P absorbs leverage. The B/P ratio can be decomposed into an enterprise book-to-price (that pertains to operations and potentially reflects operating risk) and a leverage component (that reflects financing risk). The empirical analysis shows that the enterprise book-to-price ratio is positively related to subsequent stock returns but, conditional upon the enterprise book-to-price, the leverage component of B/P is negatively associated with future stock returns. Further, both enterprise book-to-price and leverage explain returns over those associated with Fama and French nominated factors including the book-to-price factor albeit negatively so for leverage. The seemingly perverse finding with respect to the leverage component of B/P survives under controls for size, estimated beta, return volatility, momentum, and default risk.

Abstract:
This paper lays out a decomposition of book-to-price (B/P) that articulates precisely how B/P "absorbs" leverage. The B/P ratio can be decomposed into an enterprise book-to-price (that pertains to operations and potentially reflects operating risk) and a leverage component (that reflects financing risk). The empirical analysis shows that the enterprise book-to-price ratio is positively related to subsequent stock returns but, conditional upon the enterprise book-to-price, the leverage component of B/P is negatively associated with future stock returns. Further, both enterprise book-to-price and leverage explain returns over those associated with Fama and French nominated factors - including the book-to-price factor - albeit negatively so for leverage. The seemingly perverse finding with respect to the leverage component of B/P survives under controls for size, estimated beta, return volatility, momentum, and default risk.

Book-to-price, Leverage, Enterprise book-to-price, Stock Returns

Abstract:
This paper examines whether the documented negative correlation between changes in interest rates and stock returns is also observed in the fundamentals on which equity values are based. The negative correlation is often attributed to changes in the discount rate, a denominator effect in a valuation model. However, there may also be a numerator effect on the expected payoffs that are discounted, and it is this effect that the paper examines. The paper documents the effect of changes in interest rates on accounting profitability and asset growth that are tied to expected dividends and value in the residual earnings valuation model. The effects of changes in both real and nominal interest rates are investigated so that the effects of changes in expected inflation (that has been the focus of much of the research on interest rates and stock returns) are isolated. Accordingly, the paper evaluates the Modigliani and Cohn conjecture that investors do not understand the effect of changes in expected inflation on firms. The results show that both real and nominal rates are positively related to subsequent profitability and growth, at least in the near term. So, increases in interest rates are followed by higher profitability and growth. However, the resultant increase in earnings is typically not large enough to cover the increase in the required return from the increase in the interest rate. So the overall effect on equity value is negative, consistent with the results of the research on interest rates and stock returns.

Abstract:
Numerous studies have documented that stock returns are negatively related to changes in interest rates, but there has been little corroborating research on the information in interest rate changes about the fundamentals which the stock market prices. The negative correlation is often attributed to changes in the discount rate, a denominator effect in a valuation model. However, there may also be a numerator effect on the expected payoffs that are discounted. This paper shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to subsequent earnings, but the change in earnings is typically not large enough to cover the change in the required return. Hence the net (numerator and denominator) effect on equity value is negative, consistent with the results of the research on interest rates and stock returns.

interest rates, expected inflation, earnings, equity valuation

Abstract:
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a call for comment on a proposal to adopt a Roadmap for potential use of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) by U.S. Companies. We comment on five key issues raised by the SEC proposal. First, we propose that the need for a global regulator is overstated. A global regulator is unlikely to help achieve the stated goals of comparability and consistency of financial reporting on a global basis. We favor allowing U.S. companies to choose use of U.S. GAAP or IFRS rather than mandating one global monopoly set of standards. Second, we agree that the focus on auditing is a very relevant issue that deserves more attention from standard setters. Gains from adopting principles based accounting standards such as IFRS are likely to be realized only if auditors are also principles based. Third, while we have serious concerns about governance and financing mechanisms of IASB, we recommend that all regulatory actions cannot be held to a standstill while structural changes are made to the IASB. Fourth, we are not in favor of requiring reconciliation schedules from U.S. companies using IFRS. We view such reconciliations as being costly and unnecessary. Fifth, we recommend that the SEC pay more explicit attention to the educational and professional judgment consequences of its proposals.

This comment was developed by the Financial Accounting Standards Committee of the American Accounting Association and does not represent an official position of the American Accounting Association.

U.S. GAAP, IFRS, SEC, Reconciliation, Roadmap

Abstract:
Standard setters and most academics maintain that accounting standards ought to rest on a set of guiding principles stated explicitly in a “conceptual framework.” The FASB and IASB are currently involved in a project to refine conceptual framework documents developed earlier. At this point, it is not clear what their final product will look like; its defining characteristics as well as the substantive content can only be surmised. This paper addresses the issues that FASB and IASB face, including the question of what a conceptual framework should be all about. First, we suggest characteristics that a conceptual framework ought to exhibit. Most of these suggestions are based on our critique of the existing framework and the FASB-IASB work in progress. Second, we present a model framework that meets our criteria. We emphasize up front that this framework is quite explicit. It goes to the heart of what a framework document should do: it places specific restrictions on what constitutes admissible accounting standards. The purpose of our effort is to stimulate broad discussion of alternative approaches to foundational documents and to offer a specific example of such an alternative approach.

FASB, IASB, Conceptual Framework, Accounting Standards, Financial Reporting

Abstract:
The FASB and the IASB recently issued a joint discussion paper entitled, Preliminary Views on Revenue Recognition in Contracts with Customers. The Boards requested comments on whether their proposed model for revenue recognition would improve the usefulness of the financial statement information for financial decision makers. This paper sets forth the AAA's Financial Accounting Standards Committee's responses to several of the Boards' specific questions. In summary, we support the Boards' proposed comprehensive revenue recognition standard based on the following options: (1) the customer consideration approach (based on initial contract price measurement); (2) no recognition of revenue at contract inception (by assigning the initial contract price to performance obligations); (3) allocation of the transaction price to multiple performance obligations based on the relative stand-alone prices of each performance obligation. We also recommend that the Boards carefully consider the following clarifications as they develop the final exposure draft. The definition of a contract should include the words legally enforceable to describe the contract. A performance obligation must be verifiable. While the transfer of an asset to the customer or the acceptance of a service by the customer normally signals the recognition of revenue, we encourage the Boards to carefully consider situations (like long-term construction or mining) when the completion of intermediate performance obligations could trigger revenue recognition prior to the transfer of title. Absent special consideration of these situations, companies may be forced to re-write contracts in sub-optimal ways in an effort to recognize revenue continuously throughout a long-term construction project or in the process of mining or farming. Consider the difficulties that may arise in allocating the initial transaction price to multiple performance obligation contracts when the individual performance obligations are not normally sold on a stand-alone basis.

Financial Accounting Standards Board, International Accounting Standards Board, Revenue Recognition, Contracts

Abstract:
The Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB's) and the International Accounting Standard Board's (IASB's) issued a joint Discussion Paper entitled, Preliminary Views on Financial Statement Presentation. The Boards are seeking comments on whether their proposed model for financial statement presentation would improve the usefulness of the financial statement information for financial decision makers. This paper sets forth the AAA's Financial Accounting Standards Committee's summary comments as well as responses to several of the Boards' specific objectives and principles-related questions. Overall, we believe that the model has several appealing qualities, but also has several potential problems. Many of the problems that we discuss related to potential learning impediments for users to adapt to the new presentation format.

Financial Accounting Standards Board, International Accounting Standards Board, Exposure Draft, Financial Statement Presentation

Abstract:
The Canadian Accounting Standards Board (AcSB) issued an exposure draft on a proposal to adopt a separate 'Made in Canada' GAAP for private enterprises. This new GAAP is justified as being consistent with the current FASB/IASB conceptual framework, but as being responsive to the different cost/benefit considerations facing private entities vis-à-vis public entities. We viewed this proposal as being innovative and responsive to the differential financial reporting needs of private entities. We proposed that the AcSB should develop a separate conceptual framework to guide the future evolution of this new GAAP and not rely only on cost-benefit considerations. We sketched a preliminary conceptual framework that could be used to develop and justify the type of changes proposed in this exposure draft. We then responded to the specific questions asked in the exposure draft and were very supportive of the concepts proposed. First, we support the proposed GAAP which is based on historical cost with very minimal reliance on fair values. Second, we expressed agreement with the proposal to reduce the amount of required disclosures for private enterprises given their significant economic differences from public companies. Third, we agreed with the proposal to drop provision of significant guidance and especially (ex-post) emerging issues committee interpretations (EIC’s). We are in favour of a principles based GAAP and the provision of detailed authoritative guidance is not conducive to professional judgment. We also suggested a series of transition issues that the AcSB should consider including the mechanism for financing the standard setting board, the need to ensure compatibility between accounting and auditing standards, and a process for adjusting the education system (both in Universities and professional exams) to support this new private enterprise GAAP. This comment was developed by the Financial Accounting Standards Committee of the American Accounting Association and does not represent an official position of the American Accounting Association.

accounting standards, private GAAP

Abstract:
Valuation models are useful tools, but they need to be handled with care. When taking the form of mathematical formulas, they can easily be made to convey a false sense of precision. In particular, selective choice of long-term growth rates and discount rates can be used to justify almost any desired valuation.The author shows how relatively simple valuation models can be applied by active investors in a way that honors the fundamentalist dictum of building valuations on the foundation of "what we know" and avoiding speculation about long-term growth rates. The article also emphasizes the role of accounting in discovering what we know, and shows how to use accounting results in a way that not only minimizes speculation about growth rates and discount rates, but actually challenges the speculation about those rates that is implicit in current stock prices. Accounting-based valuation models are "reverse-engineered" to discover the forecasts of future operating performance that are effectively built into current prices, so the plausibility of such forecasts can be evaluated with fundamental analysis. In this sense, valuation models are used not so much to discover the "right" price as to identify, and then subject to critical examination, the market's current expectations about future performance.

The author shows how relatively simple valuation models can be applied by active investors in a way that honors the fundamentalist dictum of building valuations on the foundation of what we know and avoiding speculation about long-term growth rates. The article also emphasizes the role of accounting in discovering what we know, and shows how to use accounting results in a way that not only minimizes speculation about growth rates and discount rates, but actually challenges the speculation about those rates that is implicit in current stock prices. Accounting-based valuation models are reverse-engineered to discover the forecasts of future operating performance that are effectively built into current prices, so the plausibility of such forecasts can be evaluated with fundamental analysis. In this sense, valuation models are used not so much to discover the right price as to identify, and then subject to critical examination, the market's current expectations about future performance.

Abstract:
The SEC has proposed a strategic plan which sets out its mission, vision, and values, identifies four strategic goals, a set of desired outcomes associated with each strategic goal, and a list of performance measures for assessing the SEC’s effectiveness in attaining its goals. We affirm the need for vigorous enforcement of securities law and offer some research based insights and performance indicators. We also acknowledge the importance of disclosure, but propose that the SEC needs to develop a disclosure framework and develop better operational indicators of quality of disclosure. It is important to appreciate the benefits of disclosure as well as its limits and potential dysfunctional consequences. We also discuss the need for an independent accounting standard setter and recommend that the SEC take a greater role in enhancing the independence of FASB.


This comment was developed by American Accounting Association’s Financial Accounting Standards Committee and does not represent an official position of the American Accounting Association.

SEC Plan, Disclosure Accounting Standards, Enforcement

Abstract:
Accounting is often criticized for omitting intangible assets from the balance sheet. This paper points out that the omission is not necessarily a deficiency. There is also an income statement, and the value of intangible (and other) assets can be ascertained from the income statement. Thus, calls for the recognition of ‘intangible assets’ on the balance sheet may be misconceived. The paper lays out the property whereby the income statement corrects for deficiencies in the balance sheet. It then explores the case where the income statement perfectly corrects for a deficient balance sheet and the case where it does so imperfectly. In the latter case, the paper then asks whether accounting in the balance sheet - by capitalization and amortization of intangible assets or carrying them at fair value - could remedy the deficiency in the income statement (or makes it worse). The investigation involves an analysis and valuation of Microsoft Corporation and Dell Inc., two companies presumed to posses a good deal of ‘intangibles assets’. The paper is instructive, not only to those concerned with accounting issues but also to analysts attempting to value firms, like Microsoft and Dell, with assets missing from the balance sheet.

Abstract:
The Canadian Accounting Standards Board (AcSB) recently issued an exposure draft to adopt separate GAAP for private enterprises. This new GAAP is justified as being consistent with the current FASB/IASB conceptual framework, but is sensitive to the different cost/benefit considerations facing private entities. We view this proposal as being innovative and responsive to the differential reporting needs of private entities. In this article we explain our reasoning and conclusions on several issues raised by the exposure draft starting with a discussion about the need for a separate conceptual framework for private enterprises. We sketch a preliminary conceptual framework that could be used to develop and justify the type of changes proposed in this exposure draft. We then discuss key issues raised in the exposure draft such as reliance on historical cost as the key basis of measurement, the significant reduction in disclosure requirements for private enterprises, and stopping the emerging issues committee from providing implementation guidance (no EIC’s). We also comment on the mechanism for financing the standard setting board, the need to ensure compatibility between accounting and auditing standards, and a process for adjusting the education system to support this new private enterprise GAAP.

Regulatory Competition, Private Enterprises, GAAP

Abstract:
The paper demonstrates empirically that GAAP earnings have properties to serve as a substitute for dividends in equity valuation analysis. Dividends reduce subsequent GAAP earnings, and "intrinsic" equity prices calculated by forecasting earnings are thus reduced by current dividends. This is in accordance with the Miller and Modigliani principle -- the displacement property -- which states that the payment of dividends reduces prices, dollar for dollar. Further, the paper demonstrates that if this displacement is accommodated in calculating equity prices from forecasted GAAP earnings, those prices exhibit the dividend irrelevance property, that is, calculated prices are insensitive to future dividends. The accommodation involves adding the displacement value of dividends to earnings forecasts. Forecasted GAAP earnings cannot be substituted for dividends, dollar for dollar, but the two are substitutes in the sense that the replacement value of expected dividends reduces forecasted earnings, dollar for dollar.