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Abstract:

Emerging markets, Stock markets, Investment, Financial crisis

Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the degree of herding and momentum trading among emerging market mutual funds. We use a novel database containing the country holdings of hundreds of individual funds on a monthly basis for the period 1996-2000. Overall, there is substantial heterogeneity in the behavior of funds. We find that the degree of herding computed as in Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny (1992) is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more prevalent among open-end funds than among closed-end funds. We also find some evidence that funds follow momentum strategies. Neither momentum nor herding behavior are more accentuated during crises than during tranquil times.

Abstract:
This paper explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to March 1999. An examination of individual crises shows that, on average, funds withdrew money one month prior to the events. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among open-ended funds than among closed-end funds, but not more prevalent during crises than during tranquil times. Funds tend to follow momentum strategies, selling past losers and buying past winners, but their overall behavior is more complex than often suggested.

Mutual Funds, Contagion, Emerging Markets, Foreign Portfolio Investment, Herding, Financial Crises

Abstract:
Does country "transparency" affect international portfolio investment? We examine this and related questions using a unique micro dataset on international portfolio holdings. We employ various indices of government and corporate transparency, focusing on the availability and quality of information. We find that emerging market equity funds hold fewer assets in less transparent countries. Herding among funds is somewhat less prevalent in more transparent countries. During the Asian and Russian crises, emerging market funds withdrew more strongly from less transparent countries after controlling for other risk factors. However, funds tend to react less strongly to news from more opaque markets.

financial crises transparency portfolio investment emerging markets international investors international financial architecture contagion

Abstract:
Does country transparency affect international portfolio investment? We examine this and related questions using some new measures of transparency and a unique micro dataset on international portfolio holdings. We distinguish between government and corporate transparency. There is clear evidence that international funds invest systematically less in less transparent countries. Herding among funds tends to be more prevalent in less transparent countries. There is also some evidence that during crises, funds flee nontransparent countries by a greater amount.

financial crises, transparency, portfolio investment, emerging markets, international investors, international financial architecture, contagion

Abstract:
Does country transparency affect international portfolio investment? We examine this and related questions using some new measures of transparency and a unique micro dataset on international portfolio holdings. We distinguish between government and corporate transparency. There is clear evidence that international funds invest systematically less in less transparent countries. On the other hand, herding among funds tends to be more prevalent in less transparent countries. There is also some evidence that during crises, funds flee non-transparent countries by a greater amount.

Abstract:
Benchmark following and portfolio rebalancing effects have often been cited when trying to explain international contagion phenomena. Using a dataset containing the country allocation of individual dedicated emerging market equity funds, we assess the relevance of mean-variance optimization and benchmark following, finding strong evidence for both. We also present a framework to systematically extract useful information about market expectations from funds' holdings.

Asset allocation, portfolio choice, contagion, emerging markets

Abstract:
This paper examines the evolution of market structure in emerging markets banking systems during the 1990s. While a significant process of bank consolidation has been taking place in these countries, reflected in a sharp decline in the number of banks, this process has not systematically been associated with increased concentration as measured by standard indices. Moreover, econometric estimates based on the Panzar-Rosse (1987) methodology suggest that, overall, markets have not become less competitive in a sample of eight European and Latin American countries. Lowering barriers to entry, such as allowing increased participation of foreign banks, appears to have prevented a decline in competitive pressures associated with consolidation.

Banking, market structure, competition, emerging markets, Panzar and Rosse methodology, contestability

Abstract:
This paper examines the evolution of market structure in emerging market banking systems during the 1990s. While significant bank consolidation has been taking place in these countries, reflected in a sharp decline in the number of banks, this process has not systematically been associated with increased concentration as measured by standard indices. Moreover, econometric estimates based on the Panzar-Rosse (1987) methodology suggest that, overall, markets have not become less competitive in a sample of eight European and Latin American countries. Lowering barriers to entry, by doing such things as allowing increased participation of foreign banks, appears to have prevented a decline in competitive pressures associated with consolidation.

banking, market structure, competition, emerging markets, Panzar and Rosse methodology, contestability

Abstract:
This paper examines financial market comovements across European transition economies and compares their experience to that of other regions. Correlations in monthly indices of exchange market pressures can partly be explained by direct trade linkages, but not by measures of other fundamentals. Higher-frequency data during three crisis periods reveals the presence of structural breaks in the relationship between exchange-, but not stock markets. While the reaction of markets during the Asian and Czech crises is muted, the pattern of high-frequency spillovers during the Russian crisis looks very similar to that observed in other regions during turbulent times. With greater financial market integration, the financial markets of the more advanced transition economies can be expected to behave more and more like their Asian and Latin American counterparts.

transition, currency crises, contagion, financial spillover

Abstract:
This paper examines financial market comovements across European transition economies and compares their experience to that of other regions. Correlations in monthly indices of exchange market pressures can partly be explained by direct trade linkages, but not by measures of other fundamentals. A look at higher-frequency data during three crisis periods reveals the presence of structural breaks in the relationship between exchange-, but not stock markets. While the reaction of markets during the Asian and Czech crises is muted, the pattern of high-frequency spillovers during the Russian crisis looks very similar to that observed in other regions during turbulent times.

Abstract:
Intermediation spreads in Latin America are high by international standards. This paper examines the determinants of bank interest margins in that region using bank- and country-level data from 85 countries, including 14 Latin American economies. The results suggest that Latin America has higher interest rates, less efficient banks, and larger reserve requirements than other regions and that these factors have a significant impact on spreads. However, Latin American countries do not differ markedly from their peers in other aspects that are found important in determining the cost of financial intermediation, such as inflation and bank profit taxation.

Banking spreads, financial intermediation

Abstract:
This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of survey inflation expectations in Brazil since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999. The results suggest that the inflation targeting framework has helped anchor expectations, with the dispersion of inflation expectations declining considerably, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that apart from the inflation target, the stance of fiscal policy, as proxied by the ratio of the consolidated primary surplus to GDP, has been instrumental in shaping expectations. The importance of past inflation in determining expectations appears to be relatively low, and the overall empirical evidence does not suggest the presence of substantial inertia in the inflation process.

Inflation, inflation expectations, inflation targeting, Brazil

Abstract:
This paper assesses Brazil's growth performance from a long-term perspective, using crosscountry and panel estimation techniques, building on the vast empirical literature on growth. The empirical evidence presented in this paper confirms that macroeconomic stability and several reforms have helped raise per capita growth in Brazil since the mid-1990s. The results also show that some long-standing structural weaknesses continue to weigh negatively on per capita growth. Reducing the high level of government consumption would help lower the overall consumption level in the economy and lower its intertemporal price - the real interest rate - thus helping to foster investment and growth.

Economic growth, Brazil, Economic stabilization, Economic reforms, Economic models

Abstract:
We examine the impact of financial liberalization on fixed investment in Mexico using establishment-level data from the manufacturing sector. In addition to analyzing changes in cash-flow sensitivities, an innovative approach explores the role of real estate as collateral and addresses a potential censoring problem. The results suggest that financial constraints were eased for the smallest firms, but not for larger ones. However, the importance of real estate as collateral increased, given banks' reliance on collateral in their lending. The results also provide microeconomic evidence consistent with the role attributed to "financial accelerator" mechanisms during lending booms and post-crisis recessions.

Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of financial liberalization on fixed investment in Mexico, using establishment-level data from the manufacturing sector. It analyzes changes in cash-flow sensitivities and uses an innovative approach to explore the role of real estate as collateral and deal with a potential censoring problem. The results suggest that financial constraints were eased for small firms but not for large ones. However, banks' reliance on collateral in their lending operations increased the importance of real estate. The results provide microeconomic evidence consistent with the role attributed to financial accelerator mechanisms during lending booms and during recessions that stem from financal crises.

investment, financial constraints, collateral, real estate, lending booms, panel data, fixed-effects tobit

Abstract:
Is backward-looking behavior in pricing or imperfect credibility of stabilization efforts responsible for the failure of inflation rates to decline to targeted levels during many disinflation programs? This paper assesses the relative importance of these two factors during a number of disinflation attempts in developing and transition economies. Using survey data, we find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. We also find that an improvement in primary fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This suggests that during stabilization episodes, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility by strengthening public finances.

Disinflation, stabilization, inflation dynamics, emerging markets, expectation formation

Abstract:
Persistently high expected inflation often makes it difficult for policy-makers to recover from inflationary episodes without substantial output losses. Using survey data from eleven disinflation episodes, we can assess whether the more or less sluggish decline of inflation rates towards lower target levels is related to backward-looking pricing behavior or to imperfect credibility of the stabilization efforts. We find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. Second, we find that an improvement in various measures of fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This evidence suggests that, when attempting to stabilize inflation, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility.

Abstract:
Is backward-looking behavior in pricing or imperfect credibility of stabilization efforts responsible for the failure of inflation rates to decline to targeted levels during many disinflation programs? This paper assesses the relative importance of these two factors during a number of disinflation attempts in developing and transition economies. Using survey data, we find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. We also find that an improvement in primary fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This suggests that during stabilization episodes, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility by strengthening public finances.

Disinflation, Credibility, Inflation inertia, Inflation dynamics, Expectations formation, Stabilization, Phillips Curve

Abstract:
One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors` risk aversion. We first present a simple model on how heterogeneous changes in investors` risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, we empirically show that, when funds` returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were "overweight," increasing their exposure to countries in which they were "underweight." Based on this insight, we construct a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. This index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

Contagion, risk aversion, emerging markets, portfolio choice, financial crises

Abstract:
One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors' risk aversion. The paper first presents a simple model examining how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion affects portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, the paper shows empirically that, when funds' returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were "overweight", increasing their exposure to countries in which they were "underweight". Based on this insight, the paper discusses a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. Comparing this measure to indices of trade or bank linkages indicates that our index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

Abstract:
One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors' risk aversion. The paper first presents a simple model examining how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion affects portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, the paper shows empirically that, when funds' returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were overweight, increasing their exposure to countries in which they were underweight. Based on this insight, the paper discusses a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. Comparing this measure to indices of trade or bank linkages indicates that our index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

Contagion, international investors, risk aversion, emerging markets, portfolio choice, financial crises

Abstract:
Using company-level data, this paper examines the relative stock-market performance of firms with different foreign-exchange exposures around the time of the 1994/95 Mexican crisis. Contrary to what one might have expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, exporting firms outperformed the market beginning in late 1993. Although interest rates fail to show a clear confidence loss in the exchange rate regime, the relative performance of net exporters suggests that expectations of devaluation increased continuously. The methodology presented is relevant beyond the Mexican case: sectoral differences in stock market performance may constitute valuable leading indicators of exchange rate changes in emerging markets.

Stock market, Mexican peso devaluations, event study, exchange rate exposure, credibility of exchange rate regimes, leading crisis indicators

Abstract:
Using company-level data, this paper examines the relative stock-market performance of firms with different foreign-exchange exposures around the time of the 1994/95 Mexican crisis. Contrary to what one might have expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, exporting firms outperformed the market beginning in late 1993. Although interest rates fail to show a clear confidence loss in the exchange rate regime, the relative performance of net exporters suggests that expectations of devaluation increased continuously. The methodology presented is relevant beyond the Mexican case: sectoral differences in stock market performance may constitute valuable leading indicators of exchange rate changes in emerging markets.

Abstract:
Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We assess the empirical validity of this argument. We find that the current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs. More significantly, expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior. Using survey data, we find that inflation expectations, in turn, depend largely on the evolution of fiscal variables.

Abstract:
What determines the ability of governments from developing countries to access international credit markets? We examine this question using detailed data on sovereign bond issuances and public syndicated bank loans since 1982. We find that traditional measures of a country`s links with the rest of the world (such as trade openness) and traditional liquidity and macroeconomic indicators do not help much in explaining market access. However, a country`s vulnerability to shocks and the perceived quality of its policies and institutions appear to be important determinants of its government`s ability to tap the markets. We are unable to detect strong punishment of defaulting countries by credit markets.

Sovereign debt, international capital markets, syndicated bank loans, bond markets, developing countries

Abstract:
Does country transparency affect international portfolio investment? We examine this question by constructing new measures of transparency and by making use of a unique micro dataset on portfolio holdings of emerging market funds around the world. We distinguish between government and corporate transparency. There is clear evidence that funds invest systematically less in less transparent countries. There is also some evidence that during crises, funds flee from non-transparent countries to a greater extent.

Opacity, international portfolio investment

Abstract:
This paper examines capital adjustment patterns using two large and largely novel data sets from the manufacturing sectors of Colombia and Mexico. The findings show that investment patterns in these countries resemble those reported for the United States to a surprising extent. Capital adjustments beyond maintenance investment occur only rarely, but large spikes account for a significant fraction of total investment. Although duration models do not provide strong evidence for the presence of substantial fixed costs, nonparametric adjustment function estimates reveal the presence of irreversibilities in investment. These irreversibilities are important for understanding aggregate investment behavior.

Investment, lumpiness, irreversibilities, nonconvexities, manufacturing, panel data

Abstract:
Intermediation spreads in Latin America are high by international standards. This paper examines the determinants of bank interest margins in that region using bank- and country-level data from 85 countries, including 14 Latin American economies. The results suggest that Latin America has higher interest rates, less efficient banks, and larger reserve requirements than other regions and that these factors have a significant impact on spreads. However, Latin American countries do not differ markedly from their peers in other aspects that are found important in determining the cost of financial intermediation, such as inflation and bank profit taxation.

Abstract:
Recent episodes of capital market volatility and contagion have brought up many questions about the behavior of international investors. We address some of these questions, exploring the behavior of different types of emerging market equity funds with monthly data on individual country holdings. Consistent with the notion that fund behavior can largely be traced to redemptions by individual investors, we find that open-end funds withdraw more from vulnerable countries around crises than their closed-end counterparts. We show that open-end funds' flows Granger-cause closed-end funds investments, possibly because the closed-end funds are forced to follow their more fickle open-end counterparts. Single-country fund flows precede those of global funds, suggesting an informational advantage of the former. The evidence does not support the notion that small funds are at a disadvantage in gathering country information.

Emerging markets, crises, contagion, investor behavior

Abstract:
Using a database of over 500 Mexican companies, we examine the determinants of the share of foreign-currency denominated debt in total debt, finding that it is positively correlated with imports, exports, and the size of the firm.

moral hazard, financial crises, hedging, exposure

Abstract:
We examine capital adjustment patterns using two large and largely novel plant-level data sets from the manufacturing sectors of Colombia and Mexico. The data suggest that irreversibilities play a more important role than in more advanced economies. However, we do not find support for the presence of increasing returns in the adjustment cost technology, such as arising from fixed costs. Firms go through periods of inaction and rarely sell capital, but they do not invest at discrete times only. An examinaion of the dynamic patterns of adjustment of factors differing in their flexibility supports this interpretation.

Abstract:
Using two largely novel datasets, we examine how Colombian and Mexican plants invest in response to imbalances between actual and "desired" capital stock levels. Nonparametric estimates of the average adjustment function support the presence of irreversibilities, but not of nonconvexities.

Adjustment costs, investment, irreversibilities, plant-level evidence