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Abstract:
We document strong persistence in the performance of trades of individual investors. The correlation of the risk-adjusted performance of an individual across sample periods is about 10 percent. Investors classified in the top performance decile in the first half of our sample subsequently outperform those in the bottom decile by about 8 percent per year. Strategies long in firms purchased by previously successful investors and short in firms purchased by previously unsuccessful investors earn abnormal returns of 5 basis points per day. These returns are not confined to small stocks nor to stocks in which the investors are likely to have inside information. Our results suggest that skillful individual investors exploit market inefficiencies to earn abnormal profits, above and beyond any profits available from well-known strategies based upon size, value, or momentum.

Individual Investors, Market Efficiency, Performance Persistence

Abstract:
The essence of structured finance activities is the pooling of economic assets (e.g. loans, bonds, mortgages) and subsequent issuance of a prioritized capital structure of claims, known as tranches, against these collateral pools. As a result of the prioritization scheme used in structuring claims, many of the manufactured tranches are far safer than the average asset in the underlying pool. We examine how the process of securitization allowed trillions of dollars of risky assets to be transformed into securities that were widely considered to be safe, and argue that two key features of the structured finance machinery fueled its spectacular growth. At the core of the recent financial market crisis has been the discovery that these securities are actually far riskier than originally advertised.

CDO, Structured Finance, Rating Agency

Abstract:
We develop a performance evaluation approach in which a fund manager's skill is judged by the extent to which his investment decisions resemble the decisions of managers with distinguished performance records. The proposed performance measures are estimated more precisely than standard measures, because they use historical returns and holdings of many funds to evaluate the performance of a single fund. According to one of our measures, funds with significantly positive ability considerably outnumber funds with significantly negative ability at the end of our sample. Simulations demonstrate that our measures are particularly useful in ranking managers. In an application that relies on such ranking, we find only weak persistence in the performance of US equity funds after accounting for momentum in stock returns.

Mutual funds, performance evaluation, persistence

Abstract:
We develop a performance evaluation approach in which a fund manager's skill is judged by the extent to which his investment decisions resemble the decisions of managers with distinguished performance records. The proposed performance measures are estimated more precisely than standard measures, because they use historical returns and holdings of many funds to evaluate the performance of a single fund. According to one of our measures, funds with significantly positive ability considerably outnumber funds with significantly negative ability at the end of our sample. Simulations demonstrate that our measures are particularly useful in ranking managers. In an application that relies on such ranking, we find only weak persistence in the performance of U.S. equity funds after accounting for momentum in stock returns.

Abstract:
We develop a performance evaluation approach in which a fund manager's skill is judged by the extent to which his investment decisions resemble the decisions of managers with distinguished performance records. The proposed performance measures are estimated more precisely than standard measures, because they use historical returns and holdings of many funds to evaluate the performance of a single fund. According to one of our measures, funds with significantly positive ability considerably outnumber funds with significantly negative ability at the end of our sample. Simulations demonstrate that our measures are particularly useful in ranking managers. In an application that relies on such ranking, we find only weak persistence in the performance of U.S. equity funds after accounting for momentum in stock returns.

Abstract:
The central insight of asset pricing is that a security's value depends on both its distribution of payoffs across economic states and state prices. In fixed income markets, many investors focus exclusively on estimates of expected payoffs, such as credit ratings, without considering the state of the economy in which default is likely to occur. Such investors are likely to be attracted to securities whose payoffs resemble those of economic catastrophe bonds - bonds that default only under severe economic conditions. We show that many structured finance instruments can be characterized as economic catastrophe bonds, but offer far less compensation than alternatives with comparable payoff profiles. We argue that this difference arises from the willingness of rating agencies to certify structured products with a low default likelihood as safe and from a large supply of investors who view them as such.

bond pricing, structured finance, credit derivatives, collateralized debt obligation (CDO), state price density, Arrow-Debreu

Abstract:
This paper examines asset fire sales, and institutional price pressure more generally, in equity markets, using market prices of mutual fund transactions caused by capital flows from 1980 to 2003. Funds experiencing large outflows (inflows) tend to decrease (increase) existing positions, which creates price pressure in the securities held in common by these funds. Forced transactions represent a significant cost of financial distress for mutual funds. We find that investors who trade against constrained mutual funds earn highly significant returns for providing liquidity when few others are willing or able. In addition, future flow-driven transactions are predictable, creating an incentive to front-run the anticipated forced trades by funds experiencing extreme capital flows.

Abstract:
This paper examines asset fire sales, and institutional price pressure more generally, in equity markets, using market prices of mutual fund transactions caused by capital flows from 1980 to 2003. Funds experiencing large outflows (inflows) tend to decrease (increase) existing positions, which creates price pressure in the securities held in common by these funds. Forced transactions represent a significant cost of financial distress for mutual funds. We find that investors who trade against constrained mutual funds earn highly significant returns for providing liquidity when few others are willing or able. In addition, future flow-driven transactions are predictable, creating an incentive to front-run the anticipated forced trades by funds experiencing extreme capital flows.

Mutual fund flows, financial distress, price pressure

Abstract:
This paper examines expected option returns in the context of mainstream asset pricing theory. Under mild assumptions, expected call returns exceed those of the underlying security and increase with the strike price. Likewise, expected put returns are below the risk-free rate and increase with the strike price. S&P index option returns consistently exhibit these characteristics. Under stronger assumptions, expected option returns vary linearly with option betas. However, zero-beta, at-the-money straddle positions produce average losses of approximately three percent per week. This suggests that some additional factor, such as systematic stochastic volatility, is priced in option returns.

Abstract:
This paper examines expected option returns in the context of mainstream asset pricing theory. Under mild assumptions, call options have expected returns which exceed those of their underlying security and which are increasing in their strike prices. Likewise, put options have expected returns which are below the risk-free rate and which are also increasing in their strike prices. Across a variety of time periods and return frequencies, S&P 500 and 100 index option returns strongly exhibit these characteristics. Under stronger assumptions, expected option returns are a linear function of option betas. Fama-MacBeth-style option return regressions produce risk premia close to the expected market return. However, the regression intercepts are significantly below zero. As a result, zero-beta, at-the-money straddle positions produce average losses of approximately three percent per week. Zero-beta straddles in other markets also lose money consistently. These findings suggest that some additional factor, such as systematic stochastic volatility, is priced in option returns.

Abstract:
This paper documents strong evidence of behavioral biases among Chicago Board of Trade proprietary traders and investigates the effect these biases have on prices. Our traders appear highly loss-averse. Traders who experience morning losses are about 16 percent more likely to assume above-average afternoon risk than traders with morning gains. This behavior has important short-term consequences for afternoon prices, as losing traders are prepared to purchase contracts at higher prices and sell contracts at lower prices than those that prevailed previously. However, during the ten minutes that follow these trades, prices revert strongly to their earlier levels. Consistent with these findings, short-term afternoon price volatility is positively related to the prevalence of morning losses among locals, but overall afternoon price volatility is not.

Loss Aversion

Abstract:
This paper uses geography to shed light on the role of asymmetric information in asset pricing. Demonstrating that investors possess significant informational advantages in evaluating nearby investments, we find that active mutual fund managers overweight proximate firms in their portfolios and earn substantial abnormal returns in local holdings. These findings are more pronounced among funds which are small, have few holdings, and operate out of remote locations. Aggregating across all funds, we use the fraction of a stock's shares held by local investors as a measure of the information asymmetry in its investor base. We find that a firm's degree of local ownership is positively related to the cross-section of expected returns, even when controlling for other factors known to explain return variation. The results document new evidence of informed trading and establish a link between such trading and asset prices.

Abstract:
This document describes how interactive market simulations are used to teach finance in the Dynamic Markets course at Harvard Business School. The course is organized around hands-on application in a wide variety of capital market settings with the goal of producing experts in financial decision-making. The essential aspects of this pedagogy are dynamic decision settings, a strong reliance on competitive markets, and derivation of core concepts through active student decision-making.

simulations, teaching finance, education

Abstract:
This paper studies information blockages and the asymmetric release of information in a security market with fixed setup costs of trading. In this setting, 'sidelined' investors may delay trading until price movements validate their private signals. Trading thereby internally generates the arrival of further news to the market. This leads to 1) negative skewness following price runups and positive skewness following price rundowns (even though the model is ex ante symmetric), 2) a lack of correspondence between large price changes and the arrival of external information, and 3) increases in volatility following large price changes.

Abstract:
We argue that inertial behavior on the part of investors can have significant consequences for corporate financial policy. One implication of investor inertia is that it improves the terms for the acquiring firm in a stock-for-stock merger, because acquirer shares are placed in the hands of investors, who, independent of their beliefs, do not resell these shares on the open market. In the presence of a downward-sloping demand curve, this leads to a reduction in price pressure and, hence, to cheaper equity financing. We develop a simple model to illustrate this idea and present supporting empirical evidence.

mergers, inertia, equity issuance

Abstract:
We explore the consequences for corporate financial policy that arise when investors exhibit inertial behavior. One implication of investor inertia is that, all else equal, a firm pursuing a strategy of equity-financed growth will prefer a stock-for-stock merger to greenfield investment financed with an SEO. With a merger, acquirer stock is placed in the hands of investors, who, because of inertia, do not resell it all on the open market. If there is downward-sloping demand for acquirer shares, this leads to less price pressure than an SEO, and cheaper equity financing as a result. We develop a simple model to illustrate this idea, and present supporting empirical evidence. Both individual and institutional investors tend to hang on to shares granted them in mergers, with this tendency being much stronger for individuals. Consistent with the model and with this cross-sectional pattern in inertia, acquirers targeting firms with high institutional ownership experience more negative announcement effects and greater announcement volume. Moreover, the results are strongest when the overlap in target and acquirer institutional ownership is low and when the demand curve for the acquirer's shares appears to be steep.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
We argue that inertial behavior on the part of investors can have significant consequences for corporate financial policy. One implication of investor inertia is that it improves the terms for the acquiring firm in a stock-for-stock merger, because acquirer shares are placed in the hands of investors, who, independent of their beliefs, do not resell these shares on the open market. In the presence of a downward-sloping demand curve, this leads to a reduction in price pressure and, hence, to cheaper equity financing. We develop a simple model to illustrate this idea and present supporting empirical evidence.

Inertia, mergers, equity issuance

Abstract:
This Paper analyzes the information content of the ambient noise level in the Chicago Board of Trade's 30-year Treasury Bond futures trading pit. Controlling for a variety of other variables, including lagged price changes, trading volumes, and news announcements, we find that the sound level conveys information which is highly economically and statistically significant. In particular, we find increases in the sound level precede periods of high price volatility and increased trading volumes. Increases in the sound level also presage the placement of block trades and relative increases in customer-driven trading. Our results add to our understanding of the market price formation process and offer important implications for the future of open outcry and floor-based trading mechanisms.

Abstract:
This paper proposes a new framework for understanding financial intermediation. In contrast to previous research, we consider a setting in which intermediaries possess no inherent information processing or monitoring advantages. Instead, in an economy with overly optimistic entrepreneurs who require funding from overly skeptical (pessimistic) investors, we show that intermediaries can arise endogenously. In such a setting, only a rational intermediary will be sufficiently optimistic to find it worthwhile to invest in a technology for screening entrepreneurs' projects, and yet be pessimistic enough to use this technology. Our framework produces implications consistent with, heretofore unexplained, stylized facts, and a number of others which are, as of yet, untested.

Financial intermediation, optimism, pessimism

Abstract:
This paper employs a new empirical approach for identifying the impact of government spending on the private sector. Our key innovation is to use changes in congressional committee chairmanship as a source of exogenous variation in state-level federal expenditures. In doing so, we show that fiscal spending shocks appear to significantly dampen corporate sector investment and employment activity. These corporate behaviors follow both Senate and House committee chair changes, are partially reversed when the congressman resigns, and are most pronounced among geographically-concentrated firms. The effects are economically meaningful and the mechanism - entirely distinct from the more traditional interest rate and tax channels - suggests new considerations in assessing the impact of government spending on private sector economic activity.

government spending, seniority, corporate behavior, investment, earmarks

Abstract:
This paper studies information blockages and the asymmetric release of information in a security market with fixed setup costs of trading. In this setting, 'sidelined' investors may delay trading until price movements validate their private signals. Trading thereby internally generates the arrival of further news to the market. This leads to 1) negative skewness following price runups and positive skewness following price rundowns (even though the model is ex ante symmetric), 2) a lack of correspondence between large price changes and the arrival of external information, and 3) increases in volatility following large price changes.

Abstract:
We argue that self-deception underlies various aspects of the behavior of investors and of prices in capital markets. We examine the implications of self-deception for investor overconfidence, and how firms and financial institutions can exploit the overconfidence of investors in a predatory fashion. These ideas link self-deception to deception by others. We also examine how investor self-deception and overconfidence can affect financial reporting and disclosure policy.

Abstract:
SUBJECT AREAS: Analysis, Capital markets, Portfolio management

CASE SETTINGS: 2005

Focuses on the portfolio allocation decision of a passive fund manager. Provides a setting to study portfolio theory, including mean-variance analysis, the capital market line, and the efficient frontier. Includes color exhibits.

Abstract:
Applying a geographic lens to mutual fund performance, this study finds that fund managers earn substantial abnormal returns in nearby investments. These returns are particularly strong among funds that are small and old, focus on few holdings, and operate out of remote areas. Furthermore, we find that while the average fund exhibits only a modest bias toward local stocks, certain funds strongly bias their holdings locally and exhibit even greater local performance. Finally, we demonstrate that the extent to which a firm is held by nearby investors is positively related to its future expected return. Our results suggest that investors trade local securities at an informational advantage and point toward a link between such trading and asset prices.

Abstract:
We show that an optimal tax management strategy for financing of subsidiaries by multinational corporations, that takes into account exploitation of tax-loss credits, may involve the use of both intra-firm parent debt as well as intra-firm parent equity. This is in contrast to the textbook argument that suggests a knife-edged subsidiary capital structure that, depending on the tax-rate differential between countries, uses either all debt or all equity. We develop a formal multi-period dynamic model to characterize the optimal dividend repatriation policy and the optimal choice of debt-equity mix. The model generates several testable empirical implications that are consistent with available empirical evidence and several others that have not been either discussed or empirically tested in the literature.