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Abstract:
In this paper, I analyze recent findings by Coe and Helpman (1995) on trade-related international R&D spillovers. A Monte Carlo based robustness test is proposed which compares the elasticity of domestic productivity with respect to foreign R&D estimated by Coe and Helpman with an elasticity which is based on counterfactual international trade patterns. I show that also these randomly created trade patterns give rise to positive international R&D spillover estimates, which are larger and explain more of the variation in productivity across countries than if true' bilateral trade patterns are employed. The finding casts doubt on the claim that patterns of international trade are important in driving R&D spillovers.

Abstract:
In this paper, I analyze recent findings by Coe and Helpman (1995) of trade-related international R&D spillovers. I show generally that randomly created bilateral trade shares also give rise to large estimated international R&D spillovers; often, in fact, to larger estimated spillover effects which are more precisely estimated than by employing the 'true' bilateral trade shares. This casts some doubt on the earlier results in the literature.

Abstract:
Re-sampling techniques and theoretically-motivated extraneous information are used to revisit Hummels and Levinsohn's (1995) analysis of the testable implication of the monopolistic competition trade theory for bilateral trade volumes. Confronting this implication with data from over nine-thousand samples, we find a robust relationship between the estimated parameter and the summary statistics of the samples. Using this information, which is extraneous to the estimating equation, we rank the samples according to the likely share of monopolistic competition-inspired trade in total trade volumes. We then conduct a consistency check: to examine whether this testable implication is less refuted in samples where the production structures are more conducive to generating large shares of monopolistic competition-inspired trade. The monopolistic competition trade theory passes this consistency check. Next, we recognize that other trade theories can generate the same estimating equation. We argue that the assumptions, unrelated to these models' production structure, are unlikely to account for the differences in the estimated parameter across the samples. Our estimation results imply that the testable implication performed worse in samples where factor-endowment based trade is more likely to predominate. These findings indicate that the empirical performance of the trade volume predictions of the Helpman- Krugman monopolistic competition trade theory is much better than suggested by previous research.

Abstract:
Convergence in per capita income across countries turns on whether technological knowledge spillover are global or local. This paper estimates the amount of spillover from R&D expenditures in major industrialized countries on a geographic basis. A new data set is used which encompasses most of the world's innovative activity at the industry-level between the years 1970 and 1995. First, I find that technological knowledge is to a substantial degree local, not global, as the benefits from foreign spillover are declining with distance: on average, a 10% higher distance to a major technology-producing country such as the U.S. is associated with a 0.15% lower level of productivity. Second, technological knowledge has become more global over the sample period. As a determinant of productivity, foreign R&D has significantly gained in importance relative to domestic R&D, and the extent to which knowledge spillover decline with distance has fallen by 20%. The finding of a falling but still high degree of localization has important implications for macroeconomics and growth, trade, and regional economics.

Abstract:
This paper examines the evidence on technology diffusion through trade in differentiated intermediate goods. Because intermediates are invented through costly research and development (R&D) investments, employing imported intermediates implies an implicit sharing of the technology that was created in other countries. The model predicts that the import patterns of countries matters for productivity, because a country that imports primarily from technological leaders receives more technology embodied in intermediate goods than another that imports primarily from follower countries. I try to quantify the importance of trade patterns in determining technology flows that affect productivity by using industry level data for machinery goods imports and productivity in eight OECD countries between 1970-91. First evidence that these countries benefit more from domestic R&D than from R&D of the average foreign country. Second, conditional on technology diffusion from domestic R&D composition of a country matters, but only if it is strongly biased towards or away from technological leaders. Third, I estimate that differences in technology inflows related to the countries' patterns of imports explain about 20% of the total variation in the countries' productivity growth. The implications of these findings for developing countries are discussed.

Abstract:
As a factor influencing productivity, a country's own research and development to generate new technology is more important than that of the average foreign country. It is generally difficult to separate the effect of importing intermediate goods with embodied technology from the effect of other channels of international technology transmission. According to this study, international trade contributes 20 percent of the total effect on productivity from foreign research and development investments.

Earlier studies of spillovers from international research and development (R&D) suggest how economies benefit from R&D conducted abroad. To the extent that countries importing new technologies do not pay in full for the increased variety in intermediate inputs in production, they are reaping an external, or spillover, effect.

Keller analyzes a particular mechanism through which economies benefit from foreign R&D. He estimates the extent to which a country benefits from imports of intermediate goods that embody new technology - result of foreign investments in R&D. He distinguishes this mechanism from others unrelated to international trade.

Using industry-level data for eight OECD countries (Sweden and the G-7 countries) between 1970 and 1991, he estimates the underlying model of trade and growth. This empirical analysis leads to several findings about spillovers from international R&D.

First, the productivity effects of foreign R&D vary substantially, depending on which country is conducting the R&D. The quality of newly created technology varies.

Second, as a factor influencing productivity, a country's own R&D is more important than that of the average foreign country. It is difficult to separate the effect of importing intermediate goods with embodied technology from a more general spillover effect; often both are present.

Third, in Keller's sample of industrial countries, international trade contributes about 20 percent of the total effect on productivity from foreign R&D investments. Keller conjectures that this effect could be higher for less industrialized countries importing from OECD countries, but he stresses that alternative mechanisms (such as foreign direct investment) should be included when estimating the effects of international trade in the international diffusion of technology.

This paper - product of the Development Research Group - part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the impact of trade, technology, and foreign direct investment on growth in developing countries.

Abstract:
This paper uses a case study approach to explore the effects of NAFTA and GATT membership on innovation and trade in the Mexican soaps, detergents, and surfactants (SDS) industry. Several basic findings emerge. First, the most fundamental effect of the NAFTA and the GATT on the SDS industry was to help induce Wal-Mart to enter Mexico. Once there, Walmex fundamentally changed the retail sector, forcing SDS firms to cut their profit margins and innovate. Those unable to respond to this new environment tended to lose market share and, in some cases, disappear altogether. Second, partly in response to Walmex, many Mexican producers logged impressive efficiency gains during the previous decade. These gains came both from labor-shedding and from innovation, which in turn was fueled by innovative input suppliers and by multinationals bringing new products and processes from their headquarters to Mexico. Finally, although Mexican detergent exports captured an increasing share of the U.S. detergent market over the past decade, Mexican sales in the U.S. were inhibited by a combination of excessive shipping delays at the border and artificially high input prices (due to Mexican protection of domestic caustic soda suppliers). They were also held back by the major re-tooling costs that Mexican producers would have had to incur to establish brand recognition among non-Latin consumers and to comply with zero phosphate laws in many regions of the U.S.

Markets and Market Access, Economic Theory & Research, Transport Economics Policy & Planning, Water and Industry, Access to Markets

Abstract:
This paper uses a case study approach to explore the effects of NAFTA and GATT membership on innovation and trade in the Mexican soaps, detergents, and surfactants (SDS) industry. Several basic findings emerge. First, the most fundamental effect of the NAFTA and the GATT on the SDS industry was to help induce Wal-Mart to enter Mexico. Once there, Walmex fundamentally changed the retail sector, forcing SDS firms to cut their profit margins and innovate. Those unable to respond to this new environment tended to lose market share and, in some cases, disappear altogether. Second, partly in response to Walmex, many Mexican producers logged impressive efficiency gains during the previous decade. These gains came both from labor-shedding and from innovation, which in turn was fueled by innovative input suppliers and by multinationals bringing new products and processes from their headquarters to Mexico. Finally, although Mexican detergent exports captured an increasing share of the U.S. detergent market over the past decade, Mexican sales in the U.S. were inhibited by a combination of excessive shipping delays at the border and artificially high input prices (due to Mexican protection of domestic caustic soda suppliers). They were also held back by the major re-tooling costs that Mexican producers would have had to incur to establish brand recognition among non-Latin consumers and to comply with zero phosphate laws in many regions of the U.S.

Markets and Market Access, Transport Economics Policy & Planning, Access to Markets, Economic Theory & Research, Water and Industry

Abstract:
I discuss the concept and empirical importance of international technology diffusion from the point of view of recent work on endogenous technological change. In this literature, technology is viewed as technological knowledge. I first review major concepts and discuss the relation of international technology diffusion with other mechanisms of economic growth in open economies. The main section of the Paper provides a review of recent empirical results on (i) basic results in international technology diffusion; (ii) the importance of specific channels of diffusion, in particular trade and foreign direct investment; (iii) the spatial distribution of technological knowledge and (iv) other issues.

Convergence, divergence, foreign direct investment, disembodied technology, embodied technology, spillovers, learning externalities, spatial productivity effects, knowledge globalization

Abstract:
I discuss the concept and empirical importance of international technology diffusion from the point of view of recent work on endogenous technological change. In this literature, technology is viewed as technological knowledge. I first review the major concepts, and how international technology diffusion relates to other factors affecting economic growth in open economies. The following main section of the paper provides a review of recent empirical results on (i) basic results in international technology diffusion; (ii) the importance of specific channels of diffusion, in particular trade and foreign direct investment; (iii) the spatial distribution of technological knowledge, and (iv) other issues.

Abstract:
I present a model of R&D-driven growth which predicts that technology, in form of product designs and created through R&D investments, is transmitted to other domestic and foreign sectors by being embodied in differentiated intermediate goods. Empirical results are presented employing data from thirteen manufacturing industries in eight OECD countries over the period of 1970 to 1991. I confirm, first, earlier findings that R&D expenditures are positively related to productivity levels and estimate an elasticity of TFP with respect to own-industry R&D between 7% and 17%. Second, the receiving industry benefits also from other industries' technology investments, an effect which is at least in part due to trade in embodied technology. I find that the benefit derived from foreign R&D in the same industry is in the order of 50-95% of the productivity effect of own R&D. Third, for domestic inter-industry technology flows, the results strongly suggest that trade in goods is not all what matters for technology transmission. I estimate that domestic, outside-industry R&D is one-fifth to one-half as effective in raising productivity as own-industry R&D for these industries.

Abstract:
We estimate international technology spillovers to U.S. manufacturing firms via imports and foreign direct investment (FDI) between the years of 1987 and 1996. In contrast to earlier work, our results suggest that FDI leads to significant productivity gains for domestic firms. The size of FDI spillovers is economically important, accounting for about 14% of productivity growth in U.S. firms between 1987 and 1996. In addition, there is some evidence for imports-related spillovers, but it is weaker than for FDI. The paper also gives a detailed account of why our study leads to results different from those found in previous work. This analysis indicates that our results are likely to generalize to other countries and periods.

Abstract:
We estimate international technology spillovers to U.S. manufacturing firms via imports and foreign direct investment (FDI) between the years of 1987 and 1996. In contrast to earlier work, our results suggest that FDI leads to significant productivity gains for domestic firms. The size of FDI spillovers is economically important, accounting for about 14% of productivity growth in U.S. firms between 1987 and 1996. In addition, there is some evidence for imports-related spillovers, but it is weaker than for FDI. The paper also gives a detailed account of why our study leads to results different from those found in previous work. This analysis indicates that our results are likely to generalize to other countries and periods.

Abstract:
Convergence in per capita income across countries turns on whether technological knowledge spillovers are global or local in a large class of models. This paper estimates the amount of spillovers from R&D expenditures in major industrialized countries on a geographic basis. A new data set is used which encompasses most of the world's innovative activity at the industry-level between the years 1970 and 1995. First, I find that technological knowledge is to a substantial degree local, not global, as the benefits from foreign spillovers are declining with distance. I estimate that the distance at which the amount of technological knowledge is halved is about 1,200 kilometres. Second, while technological knowledge has become considerably more global over time, strong spatial patterns do persist. I also find that language skills are important for diffusion, which suggests that a substantial portion of international technology diffusion is unrelated to trade in high-technology goods.

Agglomeration, convergence, divergence, economic geography, growth, international trade, knowledge spillovers, research and development, technological change, total factor productivity

Abstract:
Convergence in per capita income across countries turns on whether technological knowledge spillover are global or local. This paper estimates the amount of spillover from R&D expenditures in major industrialized countries on a geographic basis. A new data set is used which encompasses most of the world's innovative activity at the industry-level between the years 1970 and 1995. First, I find that technological knowledge is to a substantial degree local, not global, as the benefits from foreign spillover are declining with distance: on average, a 10% higher distance to a major technology-producing country such as the U.S. is associated with a 0.15% lower level of productivity. Second, technological knowledge has become more global over the sample period. As a determinant of productivity, foreign R&D has significantly gained in importance relative to domestic R&D, and the extent to which knowledge spillover decline with distance has fallen by 20%. The finding of a falling but still high degree of localization has important implications for macroeconomics and growth, trade, and regional economics.

Abstract:
In this paper we emphasize the contribution of technical change, broadly defined, towards productivity growth in explaining the relative East Germany-West Germany performance during the post-World War II era. We argue that previous work was excessively focused on physical capital investments determining productivity differentials, which consequently led to an overestimation of the East German performance during the Socialist era, and an overly pessimistic assessment of the East German prospects of catching up with West Germany during the post-reunification era. We show, first, that the rates of technical change in the manufacturing industries of East German states were significantly below those in Western states, helping to account for the fact that East Germany was not the socialist showcase for which it was frequently taken before German reunification. Second, we demonstrate that the rates of technical change in the East German states have been considerably higher than those in the West since German reunification. This suggests that the Mezzogiorno prediction for East Germany--that it will stay persistently behind West Germany as does Italy's South relative to its North--, based on an analysis of the need for physical capital accumulation alone, will prove too pessimistic.

Abstract:
In this paper we emphasize the contribution of technical change, broadly defined, towards productivity growth in explaining the relative East Germany-West Germany performance during the post-World War II era. We argue that previous work was excessively focused on physical capital investments determining productivity differentials, which consequently led to an overestimation of the East German performance during the Socialist era, and an overly pessimistic assessment of the East German prospects of catching up with West Germany during the post-reunification era. We show, first, that the rates of technical change in the manufacturing industries of East German states were significantly below those in Western states, helping to account for the fact that East Germany was not the socialist showcase for which it was frequently taken before German reunification. Second, we demonstrate that the rates of technical change in the East German states have been considerably higher than those in the West since German reunification. This suggests that the Mezzogiorno prediction for East Germany--that it will stay persistently behind West Germany as does Italy's South relative to its North--, based on an analysis of the need for physical capital accumulation alone, will prove too pessimistic.

Abstract:
Prevailing views suggest the Industrial Revolution began in Europe because markets had gradually become more efficient and by the 18th century the scope of economic activity was far larger than in other parts of the world. This paper compares the actual performance of markets in Europe and China, two regions of the world that were relatively advanced in the pre-industrial period, but would start to industrialize about 150 years apart. The analysis covers economies that account for about two-fifths of the world's population in the mid-18th century, and it considers some three centuries of data. Our findings suggest that relative levels of market function in China and Europe were similar prior to the Industrial Revolution. Higher efficiency in Europe is seen only in the nineteenth century when industrialization was already underway. Moreover, these improvements occurred in a dramatic and sudden fashion, further casting doubt on an evolutionary view of market development. Rather than being a key condition for subsequent growth, gains in efficiency appeared simultaneously with the turning point of modern growth. We discuss the implications of these findings for a number of explanations for long-run growth and the Industrial Revolution.

Abstract:
Current orthodoxy suggests that the Industrial Revolution began in Europe because European institutions promoted comparatively high levels of market efficiency. This Paper compares the actual efficiency of markets in Europe and China, two regions of the world that were relatively advanced in the pre-industrial period, but would start to industrialize about 150 years apart. Using data on the spatial dispersion of grain prices from the 17th to the 19th century, the analysis covers economies that, in total, account for about two-fifths of the world's population in the mid-18th century. Our main findings include: first, the efficiency of markets in China and Europe was comparable in the late 18th century, except perhaps for areas of local economic activity, where Europe seems to have been ahead. Second, market efficiency in England was higher than in the Yangzi Delta region; and markets in England also performed better than in Western Europe as a whole. Third, market efficiency in Europe improved between 1780 and 1830 in a dramatic and sudden fashion in comparison to what came before. Rather than being a key condition for subsequent growth, gains in market efficiency and growth might have occurred simultaneously. We discuss the implications of these findings for a number of explanations for long-run growth and the Industrial Revolution.

Industrial revolution, growth, trade, trade costs, market efficiency, institutions, geography, religion, vested interests, international comparison, arbitrage, cointegration

Abstract:
We estimate international technology spillovers to U.S. manufacturing firms via imports and foreign direct investment (FDI) between 1987 and 1996. In contrast to earlier work, our results suggest that FDI leads to substantial productivity gains for domestic firms. The size of FDI spillovers is economically important, accounting for about 11 percent of productivity growth in U.S. firms between 1987 and 1996. In addition, there is some evidence for import-related spillovers, but it is weaker than for FDI spillovers. The paper also gives a detailed account of why our study leads to results different from those found in previous work. This analysis indicates that our results are also likely to apply to other countries and periods.

Foreign direct investment technology transfer technology spillovers international trade

Abstract:
How much of China's recent economic performance can be attributed to market-oriented reforms introduced in the last two decades? A long-run perspective may be important for understanding the process of economic development occurring today. This paper compares the integration of rice markets in China today and 270 years ago. In the eighteenth century, transport technology was non-mechanized, but markets were close to being free. We distinguish local harvest and weather from aggregate sources of price variation in a historical sample and in a similarly constructed contemporary sample. Findings indicate the degree of market integration in the 1720s is a very good predictor of per capita income in the 1990s. Moreover, the current pattern of interregional income in China is strongly linked to persistent geographic factors that were already apparent several centuries ago, well before the enactment of modern reform programs.

Abstract:
How much of China's recent economic performance can be attributed to market-oriented reforms introduced in the last two decades? A long-run perspective may be important for understanding the process of economic development occurring today. This Paper compares the integration of rice markets in China today and 270 years ago. In the 18th century, transport technology was non-mechanized, but markets were close to being free markets. We distinguish local harvest and weather from aggregate sources of price variation in a historical sample and in a similarly constructed contemporary sample. Findings indicate the degree of market integration in the 1720s is a very good predictor of per capita income in the 1990s. Moreover, the current pattern of interregional income in China is strongly linked to persistent geographic factors that were already apparent several centuries ago, well before the enactment of modern reform programmes.

Trade, growth, China, economic reforms, geography, distance, risk-sharing, convergence, divergence

Abstract:
How much of China's recent economic performance can be attributed to market-oriented reforms introduced in the last two decades? A long-run perspective may be important for understanding the process of economic development occurring today. This paper compares the integration of rice markets in China today and 270 years ago. In the 18th century, transport technology was non-mechanized, but markets were close to being free markets. We distinguish local harvest and weather from aggregate sources of price variation in a historical sample and in a similarly constructed contemporary sample. Findings indicate the degree of market integration in the 1720s is a very good predictor of per capita income in the 1990s. Moreover, the current pattern of interregional income in China is strongly linked to persistent geographic factors that were already apparent several centuries ago, well before the enactment of modern reform programs.

Abstract:
Convergence in per capita income turns on whether technological knowledge spillovers are global or local. Global spillovers favor convergence, while a geographically limited scope of knowledge diffusion can lead to regional clusters of countries with persistently different levels of income per capita. This paper estimates the importance of geographic distance for technology diffusion, how this changed over time, and whether international trade, foreign direct investment, and communication flows serve as important channels of diffusion. The analysis is based on examining the productivity effects of R&D expenditures in the world's seven major industrialized countries between 1970 and 1995. First, I find that the scope of technology diffusion is severely limited by distance: the geographic half-life of technology, the distance at which half of the technology has disappeared, is estimated to be only 1,200 kilometers. Second, technological knowledge has become a lot more global from the early 1970s to the 1990s. Third, I estimate that trade patterns account for the majority of all differences in bilateral technology diffusion, whereas foreign direct investment and language skills differences contribute circa 15% each. Lastly, these three channels together account for almost the entire localization effect that would otherwise be attributed to geographic distance.

Abstract:
Geography shapes economic outcomes in a major way. This Paper uses spatial empirical methods to detect and analyse trade patterns in a historical dataset on Chinese rice prices. Our results suggest that spatial features were important for the expansion of interregional trade. Geography dictates, first, over what distances trade was possible in different regions, because the costs of ship transport were considerably below those for land transport. Spatial features also influence the direction in which a trading network is expanding. Moreover, our analysis captures the impact of new trade routes both within and outside the trading areas. We also discuss the long-run implications this might have.

Abstract:
Geography shapes economic outcomes in a major way. This paper uses spatial empirical methods to detect and analyze trade patterns in a historical data set on Chinese rice prices. Our results suggest that spatial features were important for the expansion of interregional trade. Geography dictates, first, over what distances trade was possible in different regions, because the costs of ship transport were considerably below those for land transport. Spatial features also influence the direction in which a trading network is expanding. Moreover, our analysis captures the impact of new trade routes both within and outside the trading areas. We also discuss the long-run implications this might have.

Abstract:
We examine whether two important theories of trade, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and the increasing returns theory, can account for the empirical success of the so-called gravity equation. Since versions of both theories can predict this equation, we tackle the model identification problem by conditioning bilateral trade relations on factor endowment differences and on the share of intraindustry trade. Only for large factor endowment differences does the Heckscher-Ohlin model predict perfect production specialization in different countries as well as the gravity equation, and trade is purely in goods produced with different factor intensities. Our empirical analysis yields three findings. First, the predictions of the perfect specialization versions of both theories are rejected by the data and so are unlikely explanations for the empirical success of the gravity equation. Second, a model of imperfect specialization that includes both increasing returns and factor endowments as sources of trade has a mixed performance: it correctly predicts production of more differentiated goods when the level of intraindustry trade is greater; however, the predicted link to factor proportions is tenuous. Third, the predictions of a model with imperfect specialization that relies solely on factor endowment differences find support in the data. These results suggest that factor endowments and increasing returns explain different components of the international variation of production patterns and trade volumes.

Abstract:
We analyze two main theories of international trade, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and the Increasing Returns trade theory, by examining whether they can account for the empirical success of the so-called Gravity Equation. Since versions of both models can generate this prediction, we tackle the model identification problem by conditioning bilateral trade relations on factor endowment differences and the share of intra-industry trade, because only for large factor endowment differences does the Heckscher-Ohlin model generate specialization of production and the Gravity Equation, and it predicts inter-, not intra-industry trade. There are three major findings: First, little production is perfectly specialized due to factor endowment differences, making the perfect specialization version of the Heckscher-Ohlin model an unlikely candidate to explain the empirical success of the Gravity Equation. Second, increasing returns are important causes for perfect product specialization and the Gravity Equation, especially among industrialized countries. Third, to the extent that production is not perfectly specialized across countries, we find support for both Heckscher-Ohlin and Increasing Returns models. Based on these findings, we argue that both models explain different components of the international variation of production patterns and trade volumes, with important implications for productivity growth, labor and macroeconomics.

Abstract:
This paper presents and tests a new model of multinational firms to explain a rich array of multinational behaviour. In contrast to most approaches, here the multinational faces costs to transferring its knowhow that are increasing in technological complexity. Costly technology transfer gives rise to increasing marginal costs of serving foreign markets, which explains why multinational firms are often much more successful in their home market compared to foreign markets. The model has four key predictions.

First, as transport costs between multinational parent and affiliate increase, firms with complex production technologies find it relatively difficult to substitute local production for imports from the parent, because complex technologies are relatively costly to transfer. Second, the activity of affiliates with complex technologies declines relatively strongly as transport costs from the home market increase, both at the intensive and the extensive margin. We also show that as transport costs from the home market increase, affiliates concentrate their imports from the parent on intermediates that are technologically more complex. We test these hypotheses by employing information on the activities of individual multinational firms, on the nature of intra-firm trade at the product level, and on the skills required for occupations with different complexity. The empirical analysis finds strong evidence in support of the model by confirming all four hypotheses. The analysis shows that accounting for costly technology transfer within multinational firms is important for explaining the structure of trade and multinational production.

Abstract:
This paper presents and tests a new model of multinational firms to explain a rich array of multinational behavior. In contrast to most approaches, here the multinational faces costs to transferring its know-how that are increasing in technological complexity. Costly technology transfer gives rise to increasing marginal costs of serving foreign markets, which explains why multinational firms are often much more successful in their home market compared to foreign markets. The model has four key predictions. First, as transport costs between multinational parent and affiliate increase, firms with complex production technologies and it relatively difficult to substitute local production for imports from the parent, because complex technologies are relatively costly to transfer. Second, the activity of affiliates with complex technologies declines relatively strongly as transport costs from the home market increase, both at the intensive and the extensive margin. We also show that as transport costs from the home market increase, affiliates concentrate their imports from the parent on intermediates that are technologically more complex. We test these hypotheses by employing information on the activities of individual multinational firms, on the nature of intra-firm trade at the product level, and on the skills required for occupations with different complexity. The empirical analysis finds strong evidence in support of the model by confirming all four hypotheses. The analysis shows that accounting for costly technology transfer within multinational firms is important for explaining the structure of trade and multinational production.

Factor cost differences, Firm heterogeneity, Intermediate inputs, Offshoring, Tasks, Technological complexity, Technology transfer

Abstract:
This paper presents and tests a new model of multinational firms to explain a rich array of multinational behavior. In contrast to most approaches, here the multinational faces costs to transferring its know-how that are increasing in technological complexity. Costly technology transfer gives rise to increasing marginal costs of serving foreign markets, which explains why multinational firms are often much more successful in their home market compared to foreign markets. The model has several key predictions. First, as transport costs between multinational parent and affiliate increase, firms with complex production technologies find it relatively difficult to substitute local production for imports from the parent, because complex technologies are relatively costly to transfer. Second, the activity of affiliates with complex technologies declines relatively strongly as transport costs from the home market increase, both at the intensive and the extensive margin. We also show that as transport costs from the home market increase, affiliates concentrate their imports from the parent on intermediates that are technologically more complex. We test these hypotheses by employing information on the activities of individual multinational firms, on the nature of intra-firm trade at the product level, and on the skills required for occupations with different complexity. The empirical analysis finds strong evidence in support of the model by confirming all four hypotheses. The analysis shows that accounting for costly technology transfer within multinational firms is important for explaining the structure of trade and multinational production.

Abstract:
Convergence in per capita income turns on whether technological knowledge spillovers are global or local. Global spillovers favour convergence, while a geographically limited scope of knowledge diffusion can lead to regional clusters of countries with persistently different levels of income per capita. This Paper estimates the importance of geographic distance for technology diffusion, how this has changed over time, and whether international trade, foreign direct investment, and communication flows serve as important channels of diffusion. The analysis is based on examining the productivity effects of R&D expenditures in the world's seven major industrialized countries between 1970 and 1995. First, I find that the scope of technology diffusion is severely limited by distance: the geographic half-life of technology, the distance at which half of the technology has disappeared, is estimated to be only 1,200 kilometres. Second, technological knowledge has become much more global from the early 1970s to the 1990s. Third, I estimate that trade patterns account for the majority of all differences in bilateral technology diffusion, whereas foreign direct investment and language skills differences contribute circa 15% each. Lastly, these three channels together account for almost the entire localization effect that would otherwise be attributed to geographic distance.

Agglomeration, communication, convergence, divergence, economic geography, FDI, growth, international trade, language skills, R&D, technology diffusion, total factor productivity

Abstract:
While there is general agreement that technology differences must figure prominently in any successful account of the cross-country income variation, not much is known on the source of these technology differences. This paper examines cross-country income differences in terms of factor accumulation, domestic R&D, and foreign technological spillovers. The empirical analysis encompasses seventeen industrialized countries in four continents over three decades, at a level disaggregated enough to identify innovations in a number of key high-tech sectors. International technology transfer is found to play a crucial part in accounting for income differences. We also relate technology transfer to imports, showing that imports are often a major channel. At the same time, our analysis highlights that international technology transfer varies importantly across industries and countries.

Abstract:
This paper estimates the extent to which changing environmental standards have altered patterns of international investment. Our analysis goes beyond the existing literature in three ways. First, we avoid comparing regulations in different countries by using data on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) to the U.S. and on differences in the regulatory stringency of U.S. states. This approach has the advantage that data on environmental stringency in U.S. states are more comparable than that for different countries, and that U.S. states are more similar than countries in other difficult-to-measure dimensions. Second, our measure of environmental stringency accounts for differences in states' industrial compositions for earlier studies. Third, we employ a panel of annual measures of relative regulatory stringency from 1977 to 1994, allowing us to control for unobserved state characteristics that may be correlated with both FDI and compliance costs. We find some evidence of small deterrent effects of environmental regulations in particularly pollution-intensive industries large or widespread effects. While the broad conclusions are consistent with the existing literature, this paper does address three important concerns with that literature.

Abstract:
We estimate international technology spillovers to US manufacturing firms via imports and foreign direct investment (FDI) between the years 1987-96. In contrast to earlier work, our results suggest that FDI leads to significant productivity gains for domestic firms. The size of FDI spillovers is economically important, accounting for about 14% of productivity growth in US firms between 1987-96. In addition, there is some evidence for imports-related spillovers, but it is weaker than for FDI. The Paper also gives a detailed account of why our study leads to results different from those found in previous work. This analysis indicates that our results are likely to generalize to other countries and periods.

Technology spillovers, foreign direct investment, learning externalities

Abstract:
We present a model of R&D-driven growth which predicts that technology, in the form of product designs and created through R&D investments, is transmitted to other domestic and foreign sectors by being embodied in differentiated intermediate goods. Empirical results are presented employing data from thirteen manufacturing industries in eight OECD countries over the period of 1970 to 1991. We confirm, first, earlier findings that R&D expenditures are positively related to productivity levels, and estimate an elasticity of TFP with respect to own-industry R&D between 7% and 17%. Second, the receiving industry benefits also from other industries' technology investments, an effect which is at least in part due to trade in embodied technology. We find that the benefit derived from foreign R&D in the same industry is in the order of 50%-95% of the productivity effect of own R&D. Third, for domestic interindustry technology flows, the results strongly suggest that trade in goods is not all that matters for technology transmission. We estimate that domestic, outside-industry R&D is one-fifth to one-half as effective in raising" productivity as own-industry R&D for these industries.

Abstract:
This paper uses a case study approach to explore the effects of NAFTA and GATT membership on innovation and trade in the Mexican soaps, detergents and surfactants (SDS) industry. Several basic findings emerge. First, the most fundamental effect of NAFTA and the GATT on the SDS industry was to help induce Wal-Mart to enter Mexico. Once there, Walmex fundamentally changed the retail sector, forcing SDS firms to cut their profit margins and/or innovate. Those unable to respond to this new environment tended to lose market share and, in some cases, disappear altogether. Second, partly in response to Walmex, many Mexican producers logged impressive efficiency gains during the previous decade. These gains came both from labor-shedding and from innovation, which in turn was fueled by innovative input suppliers and by multinationals bringing new products and processes from their headquarters to Mexico. Finally, although Mexican detergent exports captured an increasing share of the U.S. detergent market over the past decade, Mexican sales in the U.S. were inhibited by a combination of excessive shipping delays at the border and artificially high input prices (due to Mexican protection of domestic caustic soda suppliers). They were also held back by the major re-tooling costs that Mexican producers would have had to incur in order to establish brand recognition among non-Latin consumers, and in order to comply with zero phosphate laws in many regions of the United States.

Abstract:
We study the relative importance of technology and institutions as factors determining the size of markets. The setting of 19th century Europe presents a unique opportunity to address this issue, since it witnessed fundamental change in both dimensions. First, Germany went from around 1,800 customs borders to none through the Zollverein customs treaties. Second, it moved from a situation of monetary disorder to currency unification. And third, the 19th century saw the introduction of steam trains, the key technology that revolutionized transportation between markets. Changes in market integration are studied in terms of the spatial dispersion of grain prices in 68 markets with more than 10,000 observations, located in five different countries and fifteen different German states. We find that the emergence of integrated commodity markets in 19th century Europe is in major part due to the transportation revolution in form of the railways. There is evidence that also customs liberalizations and, more so, currency agreements improved trade possibilities. However, the impact of trains was larger than the effect of these institutions: about three times larger over the long horizon, and around 50% larger for the relatively short time horizon of twenty-five years. These results suggest that as significant as institutional factors were for the expansion of markets, technology factors may have been even more important.

Currency Agreement, Customs Liberalization, Market Size, Steam Train, Trade, Transportation Technology

Abstract:
We study the importance of technology and institutions in determining the size of markets in five different countries and fifteen different German states. The setting of 19th century Europe presents a unique opportunity to address this issue, since it witnessed fundamental change in both dimensions. At the beginning of the century, numerous customs borders, separate currencies with different monetary systems, and poor transportation facilities were major obstacles that held back trade. Important institutional change, through the Zollverein customs treaties and currency unification, and major technological innovations in the steam train all had a role in increasing market size as measured in terms of the spatial dispersion of grain prices across 68 markets. However, we find that the impact of steam trains is substantially larger than the effects from customs liberalizations and currency agreements in increasing market size, where correcting for the potential endogeneity in institutional and technological changes are crucial for this result. We also find that a state's institutions influence the rate of adoption of steam trains, thereby identifying an important indirect effect from institutions on economic performance. The institutional and technological changes account for almost all of the decline in price gaps over this period.

Abstract:
This paper uses a case study approach to explore the effects of NAFTA and GATT membership on innovation and trade in the Mexican soaps, detergents and surfactants (SDS) industry. Several basic findings emerge. First, the most fundamental effect of NAFTA and the GATT on the SDS industry was to help induce Wal-Mart to enter Mexico. Once there, Walmex fundamentally changed the retail sector, forcing SDS firms to cut their profit margins and/or innovate. Those unable to respond to this new environment tended to lose market share and, in some cases, disappear altogether. Second, partly in response to Walmex, many Mexican producers logged impressive efficiency gains during the previous decade. These gains came both from labour-shedding and from innovation, which in turn was fuelled by innovative input suppliers and by multinationals bringing new products and processes from their headquarters to Mexico. Finally, although Mexican detergent exports captured an increasing share of the U.S. detergent market over the past decade, Mexican sales in the U.S. were inhibited by a combination of excessive shipping delays at the border and artificially high input prices (due to Mexican protection of domestic caustic soda suppliers). They were also held back by the major re-tooling costs that Mexican producers would have had to incur in order to establish brand recognition among non-Latin consumers, and in order to comply with zero phosphate laws in many regions of the United States.

Trade liberalization, FDI liberalization, NAFTA, GATT, WTO, Wal-Mart, retail sector reform, technology transfer, trucking, multinational enterprises, detergent industry

Abstract:
In the wake of falling trade costs, two central consequences in the importing economy are, first, that stronger competition through increased imports can lead to market share reallocations among domestic firms with different productivity levels (selection). Second, the increase in imports might improve domestic technologies through learning externalities (spillovers). Each of these channels may have a major impact on aggregate productivity. This paper presents comparative evidence from a sample of OECD countries. We find that the average long run effect of an increase in imports on domestic productivity is close to zero. If the scope for technological learning is limited, the selection effect dominates and imports lead to lower productivity. If, however, imports are relatively technology-intensive, imports also generate learning that can on net raise domestic productivity. Moreover, there is somewhat less selection when the typical domestic firm is large. The results support models in which trade triggers both substantial selection and technological learning.

Market shares, R&D, Technology investments

Abstract:
Economists emphasize two channels through which import liberalization affects productivity, one operating between and the other within firms. According to the former, import competition triggers market share reallocations between domestic firms with different technological capabilities (selection). At the same time, imports can also improve firms' technologies through learning externalities (spillovers). We present evidence for a sample of industrialized countries over the period 1973 to 2002. First, in the long run, import liberalization lowers productivity in domestic industries through selection. This finding confirms the prediction of models with firm heterogeneity, including Melitz and Ottaviano (2008), in which unilateral liberalization lowers the profits of domestic relative to foreign exporters. Second, if imports involve advanced foreign technologies, liberalization also generates technological learning that can on net raise domestic productivity. Third, for short time horizons of up to three years, a surge in imports typically raises domestic productivity. Because the number of firms at home and abroad does not change much in the short-run, new competition from foreign firms has a pro-competitive effect. We also find that high entry barriers, especially regulation, slow down the process of market share reallocation between firms. Over- all, the results support models in which trade triggers both substantial selection and technological learning.

Abstract:
This paper studies the international mobility of technology through the lens of multinational firms. We show that gravity applies to the activity of multinational firms, and the strength of gravity is greatest in technologically-complex, research and development intensive industries. To explain gravity in the weightless economy, we develop a model in which a multinational's production can be fragmented into intermediates that vary in the codifiability of their technology. Poorly codified technology requires face-to-face communication to transfer accurately, leading to production inefficiencies that can be avoided if an affiliate instead imports intermediates embodying this technology from its parent firm. Because intermediate input trade incurs shipping costs, affiliates' sales are subject to the force of gravity, and this force is strongest in technologically complex industries. An additional implication of this mechanism is that affiliates are more constrained in their ability to substitute local production for intermediate imports in technologically complex industries. We confirm these predictions and show that trade costs increase the average technological complexity of intra-firm trade. Our analysis offers a new perspective on the mobility of technology, which is a topic crucial to a wide range of fields in economics.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper examines how international flows of technological knowledge affect economic performance across industries and firms in different countries. Motivated by the large share of the world's technology investments made by firms that are active across borders, we focus on international trade and multinational enterprise activity as conduits for technological externalities, or spillovers. In addition to reviewing the recent empirical research on technology spillovers, the discussion is guided by a new model of foreign direct investment, trade, and endogenous technology transfer. We find evidence for technology spillovers through international trade and the activity of multinational enterprises. The analysis also highlights challenges for future empirical research, as well as the need for additional data on technology and innovation.

Intra-firm trade, Learning-by-exporting, Multinational firms, Tacit knowledge, Technological externalities, Technology diffusion, Total factor productivity

Abstract:
This paper examines how international flows of technological knowledge affect economic performance across industries and firms in different countries. Motivated by the large share of the world's technology investments made by firms that are active across borders, we focus on international trade and multinational enterprise activity as conduits for technological externalities, or spillovers. In addition to reviewing the recent empirical research on technology spillovers, the discussion is guided by a new model of foreign direct investment, trade, and endogenous technology transfer. We find evidence for technology spillovers through international trade and the activity of multinational enterprises. The analysis also highlights challenges for future empirical research, as well as the need for additional data on technology and innovation.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper uses a case study approach to explore the effects of NAFTA and GATT membership on innovation and trade in the Mexican soaps, detergents and surfactants (SDS) industry. Several basic findings emerge. First, the most fundamental effect of NAFTA and the GATT on the SDS industry was to help induce Wal-Mart to enter Mexico. Once there, Walmex fundamentally changed the retail sector, forcing SDS firms to cut their profit margins and/or innovate. Those unable to respond to this new environment tended to lose market share and, in some cases, disappear altogether. Second, partly in response to Walmex, many Mexican producers logged impressive efficiency gains during the previous decade. These gains came both from labour-shedding and from innovation, which in turn was fuelled by innovative input suppliers and by multinationals bringing new products and processes from their headquarters to Mexico. Finally, although Mexican detergent exports captured an increasing share of the US detergent market over the past decade, Mexican sales in the US were inhibited by a combination of excessive shipping delays at the border and artificially high input prices (due to Mexican protection of domestic caustic soda suppliers). They were also held back by the major re-tooling costs that Mexican producers would have had to incur in order to establish brand recognition among non-Latin consumers, and in order to comply with zero phosphate laws in many regions of the US.

Abstract:
We study international technology transfer through R&D spillovers in sixteen countries’ manufacturing industries since the early 1970s. The analysis shows that the productivity impact of international technology transfer often exceeds that of domestic technological change, more so in high-technology industries. Moreover, technology transfer is found to be strongly varying across country-pairs and tends to decline in geographic distance, pointing to goods trade as the transfer channel. We directly evaluate this hypothesis, and results suggest that trade is crucial for technology transfer from Germany, France, and the UK, while for the US, Japan, and Canada non-trade channels are more important.

(Les auteurs étudient le transfert international de technologie à travers les effets de retombée de la R&D dans les industries manufacturières de seize pays depuis le début des années 1970. L’analyse montre que l’impact sur la productivité du transfert international de technologie excède souvent celui du changement technologique domestique, et c’est encore plus net dans les industries de haute technologie. De plus le transfert de technologie varie fortement entre paires de pays et tend à décliner à proportion que la distance géographique s’accroît, indiquant que le commerce de biens est le canal de transfert. Les auteurs évaluent cette hypothèse et les résultats suggèrent que ce commerce est crucial pour le transfert de technologie en provenance de l’Allemagne, la France et le Royaume-Uni, alors que pour les États-Unis, le Japon et le Canada les canaux non-commerciaux sont plus importants.)

Abstract:
While there is general agreement that technology differences must figure prominently in any successful account of the cross-country income variation, not much is known on the source of these technology differences. This paper examines cross-country income differences in terms of factor accumulation, domestic R&D, and foreign technological spillovers. The empirical analysis encompasses seventeen industrialized countries in four continents over three decades, at a level disaggregated enough to identify innovations in a number of key high-tech sectors. International technology transfer is found to play a crucial part in accounting for income differences. We also relate technology transfer to imports, showing that imports are often a major channel. At the same time, our analysis highlights that international technology transfer varies importantly across industries and countries.

cross-country income distribution, international technology spillovers, productivity growth, technical change

Abstract:
Examining the accuracy of the monopolistic competition theory's predictions for import volumes, we assess whether this theory accounts for the empirical success of the gravity equation. Since certain factor-endowment based theories have the same prediction for import volumes, we employ resampling techniques to address this model identification problem. We use extraneous information on the allocation of factor endowments in a given sample to identify which model is driving trade flows. We find that the accuracy of the monopolistic competition theory's prediction improves in samples where the factor endowment allocations generate a higher share of differentiated goods trade. By an analogous criterion, the Heckscher-Ohlin models make a much less accurate prediction. We conclude that the monopolistic competition theory is more likely to account for the gravity equation's success, especially in explaining trade among industrial nations.