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Abstract:
Standard economic models of contract imply that contracts should be highly "complex," by which we mean (1) rich in the expected number of payoff-relevant contingencies; (2) variable in the magnitude of payoffs contracted to flow between parties; and (3) severe in the cognitive load necessary to understand the contract. Yet most real-world contracts are simple along all three of these dimensions. We argue that many factors, often neglected in the literature, account for this discrepancy. The factors are categorized as asymmetric information, monitoring dynamics, evolutionary pressures, conventions, reliance on trust and reputation, enforcement costs, bounded rationality, and renegotiation. This positive analysis has normative implications for how lawyers draft contracts, and for how courts rely on the form of a contract (specifically, its degree of complexity) in order to interpret it.

Abstract:
This paper uses performance-evaluation methodology to estimate the returns earned by insiders when they trade their company's stock. Our methods are designed to estimate the returns earned by insiders themselves and thereby differ from the previous insider-trading literature, which focuses on the informativeness of insider trades for other investors. We find that insider purchases earn abnormal returns of more than 6 percent per year, and insider sales do not earn significant abnormal returns. We compute that the expected costs of insider trading to non-insiders are about 10 cents for a $10,000 transaction.

Abstract:
Fearsome risks are those that stimulate strong emotional responses. Such risks, which usually involve high consequences, tend to have low probabilities, since life today is no longer nasty, brutish and short. In the face of a low-probability fearsome risk, people often exaggerate the benefits of preventive, risk-reducing, or ameliorative measures. In both personal life and politics, the result is damaging overreactions to risks. We offer evidence for the phenomenon of probability neglect, failing to distinguish between high and low-probability risks. Action bias is a likely result.

Abstract:
Whether regulating mutual funds or chemical manufacturers, government's policy decisions depend on information possessed by industry. Yet it is not in any industry's interests to share information that will lead to costly regulations. So how do government regulators secure needed information from industry? Since information disclosed by any firm cannot be retrieved and can be used to regulate the entire sector, industry faces a collective action problem in maintaining silence. While collective silence is easy to maintain if all firms' interests are aligned, individual firms' payoffs for disclosure can vary due to heterogeneous effects of regulation and differing expectations about the regulator's expected actions with or without any given information. This leads to regulators' first strategy: exploit asymmetries in firms' interests in disclosure. Regulators' second strategy comes from their ability to create asymmetries of interest, namely by selectively rewarding or punishing individual firms. Both of these strategies work best when pursued informally, in less visible ways, since other firms can be expected to inflict retribution on a squealer. Although informal relationships have been long deplored due to the risk of regulatory bias or capture, our analysis shows how they can be beneficial to government in playing the information game. This has important implications for regulatory procedure. Since total transparency would detract from government's ability to secure valuable information, administrative law needs to balance between the competing needs of transparency to prevent abuse and opacity to facilitate information exchange.

Regulatory Strategy, Information Asymmetry, Administrative Law

Abstract:
Our survey results demonstrate that targeted screening of airline passengers raises conflicting concerns of efficiency and equity. Support for profiling increases if there is a substantial reduction in avoided delays to other passengers. The time cost and benefit components of targeting affect support for targeted screening in an efficiency-oriented manner. Non-white respondents are more reluctant than whites to support targeting or to be targeted. Terrorism risk assessments are highly diffuse, reflecting considerable risk ambiguity. People fear highly severe worst case terrorism outcomes, but their best estimates of the risk are more closely related to their lower bound estimates than their upper bound estimates. Anomalies evident in other risk perception contexts, such as hindsight biases and embeddedness effects, are particularly evident for terrorism risk beliefs.

Crime and Criminal Justice, Human Rights, International Security, Law and Legal Institutions

Abstract:
As economists, we believe that the Second Circuit's ruling, by not allowing the consideration of important information about the relationships between the benefits and costs of alternatives, is economically unsound. In particular, we believe that, as a general principle, regulators cannot make rational decisions unless they are allowed to compare costs and benefits and to use the results, along with other factors as appropriate, to choose among alternatives.

To the extent permissible under the statute and case law, EPA should be allowed to consider benefits and costs in establishing rules for implementing s316(b). The Court's allowing EPA to consider benefits and costs would improve both the decision making process - by making it more transparent - and the regulatory decisions by allowing important relevant information to be considered explicitly.

Abstract:
Racial profiling is a matter of considerable concern in the U.S., and 'mutatis mutandis' in other countries. Yet, perhaps because of its sensitive nature, there is almost no philosophical reflection on this subject. This essay provides a normative assessment of racial profiling and invites more philosophical discussion of this subject. Our argument rests on two assumptions about the productivity of profiling in curbing crime. First, we posit that there is a significant correlation between membership in certain racial groups and the propensity to commit certain crimes. Second, we assume that given such a propensity, to stop, search, or investigate members of such groups differentially will help curb crime. That is, we assume that such measures eliminate more crime than other measures for equivalent expenditures of resources and disruption. If these assumptions fail (which may well be the case), the question addressed in this paper no longer arises. If our assumptions hold, we argue, police and security measures making race an important characteristic in deciding whom to stop, search, or investigate are morally justified in a broad range of cases, including many cases that tend to be controversial. Most discussions of 'racial profiling' do not distinguish between the use of race in police tactics and some other subjects, in particular police abuse. Such abuse is a serious problem that must be eliminated wherever it occurs. However, we claim that it is indeed a separable problem, that there can be appropriate use of race in police tacts without abuse, and that the discussion would benefit substantially if these matters were kept apart.

Crime and Criminal Justice, Ethics/Political Philosophy, Law and Legal Institutions

Abstract:
Using experiments, we examine whether the decision to trust a stranger in a one-shot interaction is equivalent to taking a risky bet, or if a trust decision entails an additional risk premium to balance the costs of trust betrayal. We compare a binary-choice Trust game with a structurally identical, binary-choice Risky Dictator game with good or bad outcomes. We elicit individuals' minimum acceptable probabilities (MAPs) of getting the good outcome such that they would prefer the chance to the sure payoff. First movers state higher MAPs in the Trust game than in situations where nature determines the outcome.

Advocacy and persuasion, economics, econometric theory, ethics, political philosophy, law and legal Institutions, leadership, conflict management

Abstract:
Using experiments, we examine whether the decision to trust a stranger in a one-shot interaction is equivalent to taking a risky bet, or if a trust decision entails an additional risk premium to balance the costs of trust betrayal. We compare a binary-choice Trust game with a structurally identical, binary-choice Risky Dictator game with good or bad outcomes. We elicit individuals' minimum acceptable probabilities (MAPs) of getting the good outcome such that they would prefer the chance to the sure payoff. First movers state higher MAPs in the Trust game than in situations where nature determines the outcome.

Trust, risk, dictator game, betrayal cost, experiments

Abstract:
From David Ricardo making a fortune buying British government bonds on the eve of the Battle of Waterloo to Warren Buffett selling insurance to the California earthquake authority, the wisest investors have earned extraordinary returns by investing in the unknown and the unknowable (UU). But they have done so on a reasoned, sensible basis. This essay explains some of the central principles that such investors employ. It starts by discussing "ignorance," a widespread situation in the real world of investing, where even the possible states of the world are not known. Traditional finance theory does not apply in UU situations.

Strategic thinking, deducing what other investors might know or not, and assessing whether they might be deterred from investing, for example due to fiduciary requirements, frequently point the way to profitability. Most big investment payouts come when money is combined with complementary skills, such as knowing how to develop real estate or new technologies. Those who lack these skills can look for "sidecar" investments that allow them to put their money alongside that of people they know to be both capable and honest. The reader is asked to consider a number of such investments.

Central concepts in decision analysis, game theory, and behavioral decision are deployed alongside real investment decisions to unearth successful investment strategies. These strategies are distilled into eight investment maxims. Learning to invest more wisely in a UU world may be the most promising way to significantly bolster your prosperity.

Business and Government Policy, Economics - International Economics, Economics - Microeconomics, International Affairs/Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regulation

Abstract:
Many empirical studies assess the effectiveness of reputation mechanisms, such as eBay's Feedback Forum. These investigations involve products ranging from pennies to collector guitars; they vary widely in their conclusions on how well reputation systems perform. Part of the explanation for the disparity among prior studies is that they merely collect samples from the eBay population. Such observational studies significantly increase the number of other variables that are left uncontrolled. This makes it difficult to isolate the effects of reputation on auction outcome.

In our main experiment, we worked with an established eBay auctioneer to sell matched pairs of items - batches of vintage postcards - under his extremely high reputation identity, and under newcomer identities with little reputation. Our second experiment followed the same format, but compared sales under newcomer identities with and without negative feedback. Having controlled the content of the auctions, and the presentation of item information, we were able to minimize the effects of variables other than reputation. As expected, the established identity fared better. The price difference was 7.6% of the selling price. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that this amount is reasonable, given the level of risk that buyers incur. Surprisingly, one or two negative feedbacks for our new IDs had no price effects, even though these sellers had few positives.

Economics - Microeconomics, Information Technology, Regulation

Abstract:
Early application programs have turned the college admissions process into a highly strategic arena. It is widely believed, but seldom acknowledged by colleges, that early applicants are favored in admissions decisions. This report is a brief summary of a book that will be published by Harvard University Press. We analyze admission records from 14 highly selective colleges, finding that early applicants are significantly more likely to be admitted than are regular applicants with similar qualifications. Our interviews with college students and high school counselors demonstrate a wide range of knowledge about the nature of early applications.

Education Policy

Abstract:
Over 250 respondents--graduate students in law and public policy--assessed the risks of climate change and valued climate-change mitigation policies. Many aspects of their behavior were consistent with rational behavior. For example, respondents successfully estimated distributions of temperature increases in Boston by 2100. The median value of best estimates was 1-3 degrees Fahrenheit. In addition, people with higher risk estimates, whether for temperature or related risks (e.g., hurricane intensities) offered more to avoid warming. Median willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid global warming was $0.50/gallon, and 3% of income. And important scope tests (e.g., respondents paid more for bigger accomplishments) were passed. However, significant behavioral propensities also emerged. For example, accessibility of neutral information on global warming boosted risk estimates. Warming projections correlated with estimates for unrelated risks, such as earthquakes and heart attacks. The implied WTP for avoidance was much greater when asked as a percent of income than as a gas tax, a percent thinking bias. Home team betting showed itself; individuals predicting a Bush victory predicted smaller temperature increases. In the climate-change arena, behavioral decision tendencies are like a fun-house mirror: They magnify some estimates and shrink others, but the contours of rational decision remain recognizable.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
Over 250 respondents - graduate students in law and public policy - assessed the risks of climate change and valued climate-change mitigation policies. Many aspects of their behavior were consistent with rational behavior. For example, respondents successfully estimated distributions of temperature increases in Boston by 2100. The median value of best estimates was 1-3 degrees Fahrenheit. In addition, people with higher risk estimates, whether for temperature or related risks (e.g., hurricane intensities) offered more to avoid warming. Median willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid global warming was $0.50/gallon, and 3% of income. And important scope tests (e.g., respondents paid more for bigger accomplishments) were passed. However, significant behavioral propensities also emerged. For example, accessibility of neutral information on global warming boosted risk estimates. Warming projections correlated with estimates for unrelated risks, such as earthquakes and heart attacks. The implied WTP for avoidance was much greater when asked as a percent of income than as a gas tax, a percent thinking bias. Home team betting showed itself; individuals predicting a Bush victory predicted smaller temperature increases. In the climate-change arena, behavioral decision tendencies are like a fun-house mirror: They magnify some estimates and shrink others, but the contours of rational decision remain recognizable.

Economics - Economic and Econometric Theory, Economics - Microeconomics, Environment and Natural Resources, Regulation

Abstract:
Policymaking for posterity involves current decisions with distant consequences. Contrary to conventional prescriptions, we conclude that the greater wealth of future generations may strengthen the case for preserving environmental amenities; lower discount rates should be applied to the far future, and special effort should be made to avoid actions that impose costs on future generations. Posterity brings great uncertainties. Even massive losses, such as human extinction, however, do not merit infinite negative utility. Given learning, greater uncertainties about damages could increase or decrease the optimal level of current mitigation activities. Policies for posterity should anticipate effects on: alternative investments, both public and private; the actions of other nations; and the behaviors of future generations. Such effects may surprise. This analysis blends traditional public finance and behavioral economics with a number of hypothetical choice problems.

Business and Government Policy, International Economics, Microeconomics, Environment and Natural Resources, International Affairs/Globalization, Science¿ Technology and Public Policy

Abstract:
A lie involves three elements: deceptive intent, an inaccurate message, and a harmful effect. When only one or two of these elements is present we do not call the activity lying, even when the practice is no less morally questionable or socially detrimental. This essay explores this area of "less-than-lying," in particular intentionally deceptive practices such as fudging, twisting, shading, bending, stretching, slanting, exaggerating, distorting, whitewashing, and selective reporting. Such deceptive practices are occasionally called "paltering," which the American Heritage Dictionary defines as acting insincerely or misleadingly.

The analysis assesses the motivations for, effective modes of, and possible remedies against paltering. It considers the strategic interaction between those who palter and those who interpret messages, with both sides adjusting their strategies to account for the general frequency of misleading messages. The moral standing of paltering is discussed. So too are reputational mechanisms - such as gossip - that might discourage its use.

Paltering frequently produces consequences as harmful to others as lying. But while lying has been studied throughout the ages, with penalties prescribed by authorities ranging from parents to philosophers, paltering - despite being widespread - has received little systematic study, and penalties for it even less. Given the subtleties of paltering, it is often difficult to detect or troubling to punish, implying that it is also hard to deter. This suggests that when harmful paltering is established, the sanctions against it should be at least as stiff as those against lying.

Advocacy and Persuasion, Ethics/Political Philosophy, Law and Legal Institutions, Press and Public Policy, Regulation

Abstract:
We analyze the risk level chosen by agents that have private information regarding their quality. We show that even risk-neutral agents will choose risk strategically to enhance their reputation in the market, in a manner determined by the risk choices of other agents.

Our model employs the following sequence: (1) an agent learns his type, which determines the opportunity locus relating risk and expected payoff; (2) the agent selects a level of risk; (3) a period payoff is reaped; (4) the market draws inferences from the period payoff; and (5) the agent receives a reward that is positively related both to his period payoff and to his reputation.

We analyze separately the cases of observable and unobservable choice of risk. When the choice of risk level cannot be observed, good agents will choose low levels of risk, and bad agents high levels, provided the market has no strong prior about whether agents are good or bad. Good agents are seeking to reduce noise so as to stand out; bad agents are seeking to increase noise in the hope of producing the results of good agents. When the choice of risk level is observable, pooling behavior is to be expected: Agents of different qualities choose identical, low levels of risk.

Empirical evidence is gathered on 2462 firms over 24 years. In the corporate context, risk choices are likely to have a significant unobservable component. As conjectured, the evidence rejects the model where risk choice is observable and bad firms thus mimic good firms. Our results support the unobservable risk choice model, and its prediction that agents of higher quality will have less variable performance.

Risk Asymmetric Information

Abstract:
Both criminal and regulatory law have traditionally been skeptical of what Jeremy Bentham referred to as evidentiary offenses - the prohibition (or regulation) of some activity not because it is wrong, but because it probabilistically (but not universally) indicates that a real wrong has occurred. From Bentham to the present, courts and theorists have worried about this form of regulation, believing that certainly in the criminal law context but even with respect to regulation it is wrong to impose sanctions on a "where there's smoke there's fire" theory of governmental intervention. Yet although this kind punishment by proxy continues to be held in disrepute, both in courts and in the literature, we argue that this distaste is unwarranted. Regulating - even through the criminal law - by regulating intrinsically innocent activities that probabilistically but not inexorably indicate not-so-innocent activities is no different from the vast number of other probabilistic elements that pervade the regulatory process. Once we recognize the frequency with which we accept probabilistic but not certain burdens of proof, probabilistic but not certain substantive rules, and probabilistic but not certain pieces of evidence, we can see that defining offenses and regulatory targets in terms of non-wrongful behavior that is evidence of wrongful behavior is neither surprising nor inadvisable.

Business and Government Policy, Crime and Criminal Justice, Economics - Microeconomics, Environment and Natural Resources, Law and Legal Institutions, Regulation

Abstract:
As we understand it, the D.C. Circuit did not allow the EPA to consider the costs of complying with ozone and PM NAAQS. As we further understand it, this legal ruling can be overturned only by this Court. As economists, we believe that the D.C. Circuit's ruling not allowing the EPA to consider important information relating to the consequences of its regulatory actions is economically unsound. Without delving into the legal aspects of the case, we present below why we think the Court should allow the EPA to consider costs in setting standards. In particular, we believe that, as a general principle, regulators should be allowed to consider explicitly the full consequences of their regulatory decisions. These consequences include the regulation's benefits, costs, and any other relevant factors.

EPA, D.C. Circuit, regulatory actions

Abstract:
This article describes the anatomy of health insurance. It begins by considering the optimal design of health insurance policies. Such policies must make tradeoffs appropriately between risk sharing on the one hand and agency problems such as moral hazard (the incentive of people to seek more care when they are insured) and supplier-induced demand (the incentive of physicians to provide more care when they are well reimbursed) on the other. Optimal coinsurance arrangements make patients pay for care up to the point where the marginal gains from less risk sharing are just offset by the marginal benefits from less wasteful care being provided. Empirical evidence shows that both moral hazard and demand-inducement are quantitatively important. Coinsurance based on expenditure is a crude control mechanism. Moreover, it places no direct incentives on physicians, who are responsible for most expenditure decisions. To place such incentives on physicians is the goal of supply-side cost containment measures, such as utilization review and capitation. This goal motivates the surge in managed care in the United States, which unites the functions of insurance and provision, and allows for active management of the care that is delivered. The analysis then turns to the operation of health insurance markets. Economists generally favor choice in health insurance for the same reasons they favor choice in other markets: choice allows people to opt for the plan that is best for them and encourages plans to provide services efficiently. But choice in health insurance is a mixed blessing because of adverse selection -- the tendency for the sick to choose more generous insurance than the healthy. When sick and healthy enroll in different plans, plans disproportionately composed of poor risks have to charge more than they would if they insured an average mix of people. The resulting high premiums create two adverse effects: they discourage those who are healthier but would prefer generous care from enrolling in those plans (because the premiums are so high), and they encourage plans to adopt measures that deter the sick from enrolling (to reduce their overall costs). The welfare losses from adverse selection are large in practice. Added to them are further losses from having premiums vary with observable health status. Because insurance is contracted for annually, people are denied a valuable form of intertemporal insurance -- the right to buy health coverage at average rates in the future should they get sick today. As the ability to predict future health status increases, the lack of intertemporal insurance will become more problematic. The article concludes by relating health insurance to the central goal of medical care expenditures - better health. Studies to date are not clear on which approaches to health insurance promote health in the most cost-efficient manner. Resolving this question is the central policy concern in health economics.

Abstract:
The Maxwell School's Government Performance Project rated the management successes of the 50 states in several areas, such as capital management, human resources and information technology in 1998 and 2000. Variability among the states was significant. Viewing the Maxwell School data as something to be explained, we focus on political institutions, social characteristics and the economic environments in the states. We review hypotheses that predict management performance, and we test them empirically. We find that states high in social capital, states with professional legislatures, and states with vibrant entrepreneurial economies are more likely to be better managed. A state's tax burden and the governor's powers seem unrelated to the Maxwell School scores. States with a high density of "good government" groups tend to be poor performers, presumably because citizens join such groups hoping to improve their unsatisfactory state governments.

Public Management

Abstract:
Recommender and reputation systems seek to inform potential customers by securing current consumers' feedback about products and sellers. This paper proposes a payment-based system to induce honest reporting of feedback. The system applies proper scoring rules to each buyer's report, looking to how well it predicts the report of a later buyer. Honest reporting proves to be a Nash Equilibrium. To balance the budget, the incentive payment to each buyer is charged to someone other than the one whose report that buyer is asked to predict. In addition, payment schemes can be scaled to induce appropriate effort by raters.

Economics - Economic and Econometric Theory, Economics - Microeconomics

Abstract:
Experiments are used to examine the effects of social comparisons in ultimatum bargaining. We inform responders about the average offer before they decide whether to accept or reject their specific offer. This significantly increases offers and offer-specific rejection probabilities. For comparison, we consider another change in informational conditions: telling responders the total pie is $30 - it was either $15 or $30 - affects offers and rejection probabilities roughly as much. Our results are consistent with people's dislike for deviations from the norm of equity but inconsistent with fairness theories, where people dislike income disparity between themselves and their referents.

Abstract:
This paper experimentally examines the effect of social comparisons in ultimatum bargaining. While previous experiments and the theoretical models on fairness focus on the two bargaining counterparts, we address a new reference group - others in like circumstances. We inform responders on how much other responders are offered before they decide whether to accept or reject their specific offer. Such information has a sizable positive effect on offers, rejection and equal split rates. This result is consistent with people disliking deviations from the norm of equity but inconsistent with fairness theories, where people dislike income disparity between themselves and their referents.

Fairness, social comparisons, information

Abstract:
People seriously misjudge accident risks because they routinely neglect relevant information about exposure. Such risk judgments affect both personal and public policy decisions, e.g., choice of a transport mode, but also play a vital role in legal determinations, such as assessments of recklessness. Experimental evidence for a sample of 422 jury-eligible adults indicates that people incorporate information on the number of accidents, which is the numerator of the risk frequency calculation. However, they appear blind to information on exposure, such as the scale of a firm's operations, which is the risk frequency denominator. Hence, the actual observed accident frequency of accidents/exposure is not influential.

Abstract:
Survey respondents assessed the risks of terrorist attacks and their consequences, and were asked how their assessments changed after 9/11/2001. This paper analyzes those risk assessments, and then uses respondents' patterns of risk assessments to explain their willingness to sacrifice civil liberties to combat terrorism.

More than half of the respondents exhibited hindsight bias, i.e., reported that risk assessments did not rise after 9/11. Estimates should have risen given that a major attack was an event with a low and highly uncertain probability. Equivalent numbers showed hindsight bias surrounding space shuttle risks and the Challenger accident.

There is general willingness to support airplane passenger profiling if the time costs of alternative policies are great, and there is support for surveillance policies to address terrorism risks as well. However, individuals suffering from hindsight bias are much less supportive. Interestingly, people exhibiting hindsight bias with respect to space shuttle accidents are also less supportive of these anti-terrorism policies. We explain these results as the phenomenon we label hindsight-choice bias: People assessing past decisions in which they are invested - such as the protective decisions the government made on behalf of its citizens - do not favor a change in policy after an unlikely event if they believe their risk estimates have not changed. Despite claiming that risks were not above their pre-9/11 levels, individuals exhibiting hindsight-choice bias do not have significantly lower terrorism risk beliefs than others. Yet, they are less supportive of anti-terrorism policies, which is consistent with continuing to favor policies that were previously desirable.

Abstract:
We examine the investment decision problem of a group whose members have heterogeneous time preferences. In particular, they have different discount factors for utility, possibly not exponential. We characterize the properties of efficient allocations of resources and of shadow prices that would decentralize such allocations. We show in particular that the term structure of interest rates is decreasing when all members have DARA preferences. Heterogeneous groups should not use exponential discounting for their collective investment decisions even if all agents discount exponentially. We also exhibit conditions that lead the representative agent to have a rate of impatience that decreases with GDP per capita.

Aggregation of Preferences, Hyperbolic Discounting, Impatience, Time Preference, Investment and Consumption

Abstract:
Due to betrayal aversion, people take risks less willingly when the agent of uncertainty is another person rather than nature. Individuals in four countries (Brazil, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates and the United States) confronted either a binary-choice trust game or a risky decision offering the same payoffs and probabilities. Risk acceptance was calibrated by asking individuals their "minimal acceptable probability" (MAP) for securing the high payoff that would make them just willing to accept the risky rather than the sure payoff. People's MAPs are significantly higher when another person rather than nature determines the outcome. This indicates betrayal aversion.

Risk aversion, betrayal aversion, social risk, cross-cultural experiments, Economics - Microeconomics, Leadership/Conflict Management

Abstract:
A seller faces a buyer with unknown reservation value. We show that buyer risk aversion can make it in the seller's interest to haggle. That is, the seller should make an initial offer and then, if it is rejected, make a second offer with some probability strictly less than one. This is true regardless of whether the seller haggles over price, quality, or price and quality simultaneously. The results are extended to contexts with multiple types of buyers and multiple dimensions for haggling.

Economics, Microeconomics, Economics, Economic and Econometric Theory

Abstract:
Proposition 2.5, a ballot initiative approved by Massachusetts voters in 1980 sharply reduced local property taxes and restricted their future growth. We examine the effects of Proposition 2.5 on municipal finances and assess voter satisfaction with these effects. We find that Proposition 2.5 had a smaller impact on local revenues and spending than expected; amendments to the law and a strong economy combined to boost both property tax revenue and state aid above forecasted amounts. Proposition 2.5 did reduce local revenues substantially during the recession of the early 1990s. There were two reasons for voter discontent with the pre-Proposition 2.5 financing system: agency losses from inability to monitor government were perceived to be high, and individuals viewed government as inefficient because their own tax burden was high. Through override votes, voters approved substantial amounts of taxes above the limits imposed by the Proposition.

Abstract:
We examine the effects of Proposition 2-1/2--a property tax limitation law approved by Massachusetts voters in 1980--and assess voter satisfaction with these effects. We find that the Proposition had a smaller effect on local revenues and spending than expected, as a result of both amendments to the law and a strong economy. Voters in 1980 believed there was significant waste in local government, partly because of an inability to monitor local officials. Proposition 2-1/2 curbed these agency losses, but direct local override votes and municipal expenditure patterns imply that the Proposition initially reduced spending more than voters wanted.

Abstract:
Are market and voting institutions capable of producing optimal intergenerational risk-sharing? To study this question, we consider a simple endowment economy with uncertainty and overlapping generations. Endowments are stochastic; thus it is possible to increase the welfare of every generation using intergenerational transfers that might depend on the state of the world. We characterize the transfers that are necessary to restore efficiency and compare them to the transfers that take place in markets and voting institutions. Unlike most of that literature, we study both ex-ante and interim risk-sharing. Our main conclusion is that both types of institutions have serious problems. Markets cannot generate ex-ante risk-sharing because agents can trade only after they are born. Furthermore, markets generate interim efficient insurance in some but not all economies because they cannot generate forward (old to young) intergenerational transfers. This market failure, in theory, could be corrected by government intervention. However, as long as government policy is determined by voting, intergenerational transfers might by driven more by redistributive politics than by risk sharing considerations. Successful government intervention can arise, even though agents can only vote after they are born, but only if the young determine policy in every election.

Abstract:
Are market and voting institutions capable of producing optimal intergenerational risk-sharing? To study this question we consider a simple endowment economy with uncertainty and overlapping generations. Endowments are stochastic; thus it is possible to increase the welfare of every generation using intergenerational transfers that might depend on the state of the world. We characterize the transfers that are necessary to restore efficiency and compare them to the transfers that take place in markets and voting institutions. Unlike most of the literature, we study both ex-ante and interim risk-sharing.

Our main conclusion is that both types of institutions have serious problems. Markets cannot generate ex-ante risk-sharing because agents can trade only after they are born. Furthermore, markets generate interim efficient insurance in some, but not all economies because they cannot generate forward (old to young) intergenerational transfers. This market failure, in theory, could be corrected by government intervention. However, as long as government policy is determined by voting, intergenerational transfers might be driven more by redistributive politics than by risk-sharing considerations. Successful government intervention can arise, even though agents can only vote after they are born, but only if the young determine policy in every election.

Abstract:
Hurricane Katrina did massive damage because New Orleans and the Gulf Coast were not appropriately protected. Wherever natural disasters threaten, the government -- in its traditional role as public goods provider -- must decide what level of protection to provide to an area. It does so by purchasing protective capital, such as levees for a low-lying city. We show that if private capital is more likely to locate in better-protected areas, then the marginal social value of protection will increase with the level of protection provided. That is, the benefit function is convex, contrary to the normal assumption of concavity. When the government protects and the private sector invests, due to the ill-behaved nature of the benefit function, there may be multiple Nash equilibria. Policy makers must compare them, rather than merely follow local optimality conditions, to find the equilibrium offering the highest social welfare. There is usually considerable uncertainty about the amount of investment that will accompany any level of protection, further complicating the government's choice problem. We show that when deciding on the current level of protection, the government must take account of the option value of increasing the level of protection in the future.

Abstract:
Hurricane Katrina did massive damage because New Orleans and the Gulf Coast were not appropriately protected. Wherever natural disasters threaten, the government - in its traditional role as public goods provider - must decide what level of protection to provide to an area. It does so by purchasing protective capital, such as levees for a low-lying city. ("Protection" also consists of not imposing threats that raise risk levels, such as draining swamps, or enhance losses, such as building in high-risk areas.) We show that if private capital is more likely to locate in better-protected areas, then the marginal social value of protection will increase with the level of protection provided. That is, the benefit function is convex, contrary to the normal assumption of concavity. When the government protects and the private sector invests, due to the ill-behaved nature of the benefit function, there may be multiple Nash equilibria. Policy makers must compare them, rather than merely follow local optimality conditions, to find the equilibrium offering the highest social welfare. There is usually considerable uncertainty about the amount of investment that will accompany any level of protection, further complicating the government's choice problem. We show that when deciding on the current level of protection, the government must take account of the option value of increasing the level of protection in the future. We briefly examine but dismiss the value of rules of thumb, such as building for 1000-year floods or other rules that ignore benefits and costs.

Business and Government Policy, Economics - Microeconomics, Environment and Natural Resources

Abstract:
We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Even risk-neutral agents will choose risk strategically to enhance their expected reputation. We show that conspicuous conservatism is to be expected: agents of different qualities choose levels below those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level. Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.

risk choice, signaling, conservatism

Abstract:
For several decades now a debate has raged about policy-making by litigation. Spurred by the way in which tobacco, environmental, and other litigation has functioned as an alternative form of regulation, the debate asks whether policy-making or regulation by litigation is more or less socially desirable than more traditional policy-making by ex ante rule-making by legislatures or administrative agencies. In this paper we step into this debate, but not to come down on one side or another, all things considered. Rather, we seek to show that any form of regulation that is dominated by high-salience particular cases is highly likely, to make necessarily general policy on the basis of unwarranted assumptions about the typicality of one or a few high-salience cases or events. Two cornerstone concepts of behavioral decision – the availability heuristic and related problems of representativeness – explain this bias. This problem is virtually inevitable in regulation by litigation, yet it is commonly found as well in ex ante rule-making, because such rule-making increasingly takes place in the wake of, and dominated by, particularly notorious and often unrepresentative outlier events. In weighing the net advantages of regulation by ex ante rule-making against those of regulation by litigation, society must recognize that any regulatory form is less effective insofar as it is unable to transcend the distorting effect of high-salience unrepresentative examples.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
For several decades now a debate has raged about policy-making by litigation. Spurred by the way in which tobacco, environmental, and other litigation has functioned as an alternative form of regulation, the debate is about whether policy-making or regulation by litigation is more or less socially desirable than more traditional policy-making by ex ante rule-making by legislatures or administrative agencies. In this paper we enter the debate, but not to come down on one side or another, all things considered, of the litigation versus ex ante rule-making regulatory debate. Rather, we seek to show that any form of regulation that is dominated by high-salience particular cases is highly likely, because of the availability heuristic and related problems of representativeness, to make necessarily general policy on the basis of unwarranted assumptions about the typicality of one or a few high-salience cases or events. And although this problem is virtually inevitable in regulation by litigation, it is far from absent even in ex ante rule-making, because such rule-making increasingly takes place in the wake of, and dominated by, particularly notorious and often unrepresentative outlier events. In weighing the value of regulation by ex ante rule-making against the value of regulation by litigation, it is important for society to recognize that any regulatory form is less effective just insofar as it is unable to transcend the distorting effect of high-salience unrepresentative examples.

regulation, rule-making, litigation, availability

Abstract:
Individual choice over health insurance policies may result in risk-based sorting across plans. Such adverse selection induces three types of losses: efficiency losses from individuals being allocated to the wrong plans; risk sharing losses since premium variability is increased; and losses from insurers distorting their policies to improve their mix of insureds. We discuss the potential for these losses, and present empirical evidence on adverse selection in two groups of employees: Harvard University, and the Group Insurance Commission of Massachusetts (serving state and local employees). In both groups, adverse selection is a significant concern. At Harvard, the University's decision to contribute an equal amount to all insurance plans led to the disappearance of the most generous policy within 3 years. At the GIC, adverse selection has been contained by subsidizing premiums on a proportional basis and managing the most generous policy very tightly. A combination of prospective or retrospective risk adjustment, coupled with reinsurance for high cost cases, seems promising as a way to provide appropriate incentives for enrollees and to reduce losses from adverse selection.

Abstract:
We characterize environmental quality as a stock, and its rate of deterioration as a flow. We consider a class of problems, which we call "SFQ" problems, in which both stocks and flows can be controlled to promote the quality of a resource stock. Abatement (curbing the flow) and restoration (restoring the stock) are interdependent tools in such problems. Under the optimal policy, periodic restoration complements positive but variable abatement that partly stems the quality decline. The preferred balance between the two strategies depends on environmental and economic factors. If flows are low enough, or if abatement is sufficiently inexpensive relative to restoration, optimal abatement may be sufficiently intense to offset the expected deterioration and produce an equilibrium in expectation. When deterioration is more rapid or more variable, when abatement is more expensive, or when restoration is less costly, the optimal policy relies more on restoration. We apply the analysis to the restoration of an endangered species, and show how it could illuminate a range of other problems in the environmental arena. But the lessons are general, and we briefly discuss how they apply to the management of both physical and human capital stocks.

Economics - Economic and Econometric Theory, Economics - Microeconomics, Environment and Natural Resources, Regulation

Abstract:
Thomas Schelling, winner of the 2005 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, was a Founding Father of the Kennedy School of Government. He served the School warmly and well for many years. Schelling always served as an inspiration for his creativity, and as an exemplar for his ability to make his writings scholarly, broadly general, and of great policy import. His path breaking essays and books provide an anatomy of human behavior in the individual, the dyad, and the larger group. This essay was written as the preface for a forthcoming biography by Robert Dodge, titled "The Strategist, The Life and Times of Thomas Schelling".

Economics - Economic and Econometric Theory, Economics - Microeconomics, Environment and Natural Resources, Housing¸ Urban Development and Transportation, International Security

Abstract:
We analyze the informational content of more than 1.2 million stock picks provided by more than 60,000 individuals from November 1, 2006 to October 31, 2007 on the CAPS open access website created by the Motley Fool company (www.caps.fool.com). On average, an individual pick in CAPS outperformed the S&P 500 index by 4 percentage points in the twelve months after the pick. We use a four-factor regression framework to estimate the excess returns associated with portfolios that aggregate these picks; a portfolio of the most popular CAPS stocks yielded excess returns of more than 18 percentage points annually relative to the portfolio of the least popular stocks.

Economics, Microeconomics, Information Technology

Abstract:
We consider the mechanism design problem when agents' types are multidimensional and continuous, and their valuations are interdependent. If there are at least three agents whose types satisfy a weak correlation condition, then for any decision rule there exist balanced transfers that render truthful revelation a Bayesian ε-equilibrium. A slightly stronger correlation condition ensures balanced transfers exist that induce a Bayesian Nash equilibrium in which agents' strategies are nearly truthful.

This paper extends the analysis of KSG RWP03-020.

Mechanism Design, Interdependent Valuations, Multidimensional Types, Economics - Economic and Econometric Theory

Abstract:
The net returns of no-load mutual growth funds exhibit a hot-hands phenomenon during 1974-87. When performance is measured by Jensen's alpha, mutual funds that perform well in a one year evaluation period continue to generate superior performance in the following year. Underperformers also display short-run persistence. Hot hands persists in 1988 and 1989.

The success of the hot hands strategy does not derive from selecting superior funds over the sample period. The timing component - knowing when to pick which fund ? is significant. These results are robust to alternative equity portfolio benchmarks, such as those that account for firm-size effects and mean reversion in returns. Capitalizing on the hot hands phenomenon, an investor could have generated a significant, risk-adjusted excess return of 10% per year.

Abstract:
This paper estimates the profits to insiders when they trade their company's stock. We construct a rolling "purchase portfolio" that holds all shares purchased by insiders over the previous year and an analogous "sale portfolio" that holds all shares sold by insiders over the previous year. We then analyze the returns to these value-weighted portfolios using performance-evaluation methods. This approach allows us to study the returns to insider transactions beginning on the day after their execution, and is free of the statistical difficulties that plague event studies on long-horizon returns. Using a comprehensive sample of reported insider transactions from 1975-1996, we find that the purchase portfolio earns abnormal returns of about 40 basis points per month, with about one-sixth of these abnormal returns accruing within the first five days after the initial transaction, and one-third within the first month. The sale portfolio does not earn abnormal returns. Our portfolio-based approach also allows for straightforward decompositions of the purchase and sale portfolios by various characteristics. We find that the abnormal returns to insider trades in small firms are not significantly different from those in large firms, and that top executives do not earn higher abnormal returns than do other insiders.

Abstract:
This paper identifies a novel function for permits: they can be used by the government as an instrument to elicit information about the intentions of private investors to put capital into an area. Such information is a crucial input for the government's decision on how much infrastructure to build in an area, such as the capacity of an elementary school or a public transit system in an expanding community. Decisions on infrastructure that protects against natural disasters require precisely this information. For example, a levee should be built higher and stronger the more capital it will protect. Current experience in New Orleans makes this evident, particularly given the considerable uncertainties about the private sector's intention of returning to or investing in areas at risk. Permits can replace unreliable "cheap talk" elicitation devices, such as surveys or town meetings, and can be used as an input into prediction or futures markets. An important innovation in our procedure is to use markets to elicit information separately from hedgers (the investors in our model) and speculators.

Economics, Econometric Theory, Economics - Microeconomics, Housing, Urban Development and Transportation, Regulation

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
We examine why managed care plans are less expensive than traditional indemnity insurance plans. Our database consists of the insurance experiences of over 200,000 state and local employees in Massachusetts and their families, who are insured in a single pool. Within this group, average HMO costs are 40 percent below those of the indemnity plan. We evaluate cost differences for 8 conditions representing over 10 percent of total health expenditures. They are: heart attacks, cancers (breast, cervical, colon, prostate), diabetes (type I and II), and live births. For each condition, we identify the portions of the cost differential arising from differences in treatment intensity, enrollee mix, and prices paid for the same treatment. Surprisingly, treatment intensity differs hardly at all between the HMOs and the indemnity plan. That is, relative to their fee-for-service competitor, HMOs do not curb the use of expensive treatments. Across the 8 conditions, roughly half of the HMO cost savings is due to the lower incidence of the diseases in the HMOs. Virtually all of the remaining savings come because HMOs pay lower prices for the same treatment.

Abstract:
We consider mechanism design in social choice problems in which agents' types are mutually payoff-relevant, multidimensional, and take on a continuum of possible values. If the center receives a signal that is stochastically related to the agents' types and direct returns are bounded, for any decision rule there is a balanced transfer scheme that ensures that any strategy that is not arbitrarily close to truthful is dominated by one that is. If direct returns are also continuous, truthful revelation becomes a nearly dominant strategy, all Bayes-Nash equilibrium strategies are nearly truthful, and at least one such strategy exists. If the center's information is not informative but agents' types are stochastically related, then there are balanced transfers under which truthful revelation is a Bayesian epsilon-equilibrium, again for any decision rule. Analogous results hold when agents also take mutually payoff-relevant actions in advance of any action by the center.

Economics - Economic and Econometric Theory, Economics - Microeconomics

Abstract:
How should an organization's center allocate resources to units under its control which are better informed? Even with conscientious productivity reviews, important information will remain asymmetrically held. If units value their own expenditures more than those of their peers, they will seek excess budgets and expenditures. Fortunately, budget authorities can infer productivities from units' expenditure patterns across spending categories and over time. Optimal screening budgets reward more productive units with greater overall budgets. Such screening provides significant welfare gains over traditional fixed or reallocable budgets. Empirical results for a large electricity and infrastructure provider fit an important version of the model.

Budgeting, screening, asymmetric information

Abstract:
One unusual feature of the U.S. property-casualty insurance industry is the coexistence of stock and mutual companies. This paper explores the performance of these forms in the industry through a dynamic assessment of how mutual and stock insurance companies respond to differences in their underwriting environment. Agency theories suggest that the stock company may be more 'opportunistic' and less obligated to their insureds than mutuals. This article assesses the responses by stock and mutual firms to changes in the underwriting environment from 1984 to 1991, using measures of individual firms' performance, by state and by line, in eight different lines of insurance. Stock companies are more likely than mutuals to reduce their business in unprofitable situations, and have higher losses than mutuals for a given amount of premiums.

Abstract:
The behavioral revolution in economics has demonstrated that human beings often have difficulty making wise choices. The most widely chronicled difficulties arise for decisions made under conditions of uncertainty, those whose consequences unfold over significant amounts of time, and decisions made in complex environments. Unfortunately, these are precisely the elements involved when individuals choose a health insurance policy, or decide whether to consume health care services. In this paper, we argue that traditional economic models of insurance are woefully insufficient for analyzing the tradeoffs inherent when giving consumers responsibility for making health care choices. We show that behavioral economics provides a stronger normative justification for many features of our existing health care policy than do the models of traditional economics. We then demonstrate that policy analyses of the wide range of subsidies that permeate the health care system change substantially when viewed from the behavioral perspective. In closing, we discuss how recent policy trends can be fruitfully assessed using a behavioral lens.

Abstract:
Why is private investment so low in Gulf compared to Western countries? We investigate cross-regional differences in trust and reference points for trustworthiness as possible factors. Experiments controlling for cross-regional differences in institutions and beliefs about trustworthiness reveal that Gulf citizens pay much more than Westerners to avoid trusting, and hardly respond when returns to trusting change. These differences can be explained by subjects’ gain/loss utility relative to their region’s reference point for trustworthiness. The relation-based production of trust in the Gulf induces higher levels of trustworthiness, albeit within groups, than the rule-based interactions prevalent in the West.

microeconomics, conflict management

Abstract:
Generic drug utilization has risen dramatically, from 19% of scrips in 1984 to 47% in 2001, thus bringing significant direct dollar savings. Generic drug use may also yield indirect savings if it lowers the average price of those brand-name drugs that are still purchased. Prior work indicates - and we confirm - that generic competition does not induce brand-name producers to lower prices. However, consumer choices between generic and brand-name drugs could affect the average price of those brand-name drugs that are purchased. We use nationally representative panel data on drug utilization and costs for the years 1996-2001 to examine how the share of an individual's prescriptions filled by generics affects his average out-of-pocket cost for brand-name drugs. Our principal finding is that a higher generic scrip share lowers average brand-name prices to consumers, presumably because consumers are more likely to substitute generics when the price gap is great. This effect is substantial: a 10% increase in the consumer's generic scrip share is associated with a 15.6% decline in the average price he pays for brand-name drugs.

Abstract:
This paper examines the optimal design of insurance and reinsurance policies. We first consider reinsurance for catastrophes: risks which are large for any one insurer but not for the reinsurance market as a whole. Reinsurance for catastrophes is complicated by adverse selection. Optimal reinsurnace in the presence of adverse selection depends critically on the source of information asymmetry. When information on the probability of a loss is private but the magnitude of the loss is public optimal reinsurance employs a deductible-style deductible-style excess-of-loss policy, and when is is private but the proba- bility of a loss is common, optimal reinsurance covers small and large risks, but makes the primary insurer responsible for moderate risks. There is a dramatic divergence between these designs, which suggests that traditional approaches to design may be misguided. We then consider reinsurance for cata- clysms: risks that are so large that a loss can threaten the solvency of re- insurance such as a major earthquake, while others derive from common risks-changes in conditions that affect many individuals-such as the liability revolution or or escalating medical care costs. We argue that cataclysms must be reinsured in either broad securities markets or by the government. Beyond their one- period loss potential, cataclysms pose another risk: risk levels change over time. A simulation model traces the implications of evolving risk levels for long-term patterns of losses and premiums, where the latter reflect learning learning about loss distributions. Premium risk emerges as an important part of risk, which reinsurance and primary insurance markets do not adequately diversify."

Abstract:
We investigate dividend payments of companies prior to their IPOs. Our data sample consists of U.S companies conducting an IPO between 1980 through 2006. These dividend payments are significant both in number and size. We find support for the hypothesis that insiders seeking to exit use dividends as a means to avoid selling a large number of secondary shares in the IPO. Furthermore are managers actively managing their cash holdings prior the IPO. They try to avoid very high cash holdings. We reject the hypothesis that insiders try to strip the company off its hard assets in order to bring the overvalued part to the market.

initial public offerings, dividend payments

Abstract:
A fixed budget must be allocated to a finite number of different projects with uncertain outputs. The expected marginal productivity of capital in a project first increases then decreases with the amount of capital invested. Such behavior is common when output is a probability (of escaping infection, succeeding with an R&D project...). When the total budget is below some threshold, it is invested in a single project. Above this cutoff, the share invested in a project can be discontinuous and non-monotone in the total budget. Above an upper cutoff, all projects receive more capital as the budget increases.

capital allocation, increasing returns, probabilistic returns, egalitarian allocation, complete specialization

Abstract:
Our analysis melds two traditional approaches to promoting quality. The first is restoring the stock of quality. The second is curbing its flow of deterioration. Although both approaches are widely used in real world settings, analytic models have tended to focus on one strategy or the other. We consider a class of problems, which we call 'SFQ' problems, in which both stocks and flows can be controlled to promote quality. We develop our results in the context of environmental quality, drawing on real-world examples from atomic wastes to zebra mussels. But the lessons are general, and we show how they apply to promoting the quality of both physical and human capital. We first study optimal policies in the limiting cases when only abatement or restoration is possible. We then focus on the full SFQ world, where both approaches can be used. We show that the optimal policy employs both instruments. Moreover, when combined optimally, neither strategy takes the form it would in the absence of the other.

Abstract:
Fearsome risks are those that stimulate strong emotional responses. Such risks, which usually involve high consequences, tend to have low probabilities, since life today is no longer nasty, brutish and short. In the face of a low-probability fearsome risk, people often exaggerate the benefits of preventive, risk-reducing, or ameliorative measures. In both personal life and politics, the result is damaging overreactions to risks. We offer evidence for the phenomenon of probability neglect, failing to distinguish between high and low-probability risks. Action bias is a likely result.

Business and Government Policy, Microeconomics, Ethics/Political Philosophy, Law and Legal Institutions, Science¿ Technology and Public Policy

Abstract:
Catholic churches in Renaissance Florence supported themselves overwhelmingly from the contributions of wealthy citizens. The sale of private chapels within churches to individuals was a significant source of church funds, and facilitated a church construction boom. Chapel sales offered three benefits to churches: prices were usually far above cost; donor/purchasers purchased masses and other tie-in services; and they added to the magnificence of the church because donors were required to decorate chapels expensively. Donors purchased chapels for two primary reasons: to facilitate services for themselves and their families, such as masses and church burials, that would speed their departure from Purgatory; and to gain status in the community. Chapels were private property within churches, but were only occasionally used directly by their owners. The expense of chapels and their decorations made them an ideal signal for wealth, particularly since sumptuary laws limited most displays of wealth. To overcome the contributions free-rider problem, these churches sold private benefits not readily available elsewhere, namely status and salvation.

Abstract:
Consumerism arises when patients acquire and use medical information from sources other than their physicians. This practice has been hailed as a means of improving quality. This need not be the result. Our theoretical model identifies a channel through which consumerism may reduce quality: consumerist patients place additional demands on their doctors' time, thus imposing a negative externality on other patients. Relative to a world in which consumerism does not exist, consumerism may harm other consumerists, non-consumerists, or both. Data from a large national survey of physicians confirm the negative effects of consumerism: high levels of consumerist patients are associated with lower perceived quality among physicians.

consumerism, health care quality, physician time, time allocation, time budget, Microeconomics, Regulation, Health Care

Abstract:
Consumerism arises when patients acquire and use medical information from sources apart from their physicians, such as the Internet and direct-to-patient advertising. Consumerism has been hailed as a means of improving quality. This need not be the result. Consumerist patients place additional demands on their doctors' time, thus imposing a negative externality on other patients. Our theoretical model has the physician treat both consumerist and ordinary patient under a binding time budget. Relative to a world in which consumerism does not exist, consumerism is never Pareto improving, and in some cases harms both consumerist and ordinary patients. Data from a large national survey of physicians shows that high levels of consumerism are associated with lower perceived quality. Three different measures of quality were employed. The analysis uses instrumental variables to control for the endogeneity of consumerism. A control function approach is employed, since our dependent variable is ordered and categorical, not continuous.

Abstract:
The insights of descriptive decision theorists and psychologists, we believe, have much to contribute to our understanding of financial market macrophenomena. We propose an analytic agenda that distinguishes those individual idiosyncrasies that prove consequential at the macro-level from those that are neutralized by market processes such as poaching. We discuss five behavioral traits - barn-door closing, expert/reliance effects, status quo bias, framing, and herding - that we employ in explaining financial flows. Patterns in flows to mutual funds, to new equities, across national boundaries, as well as movements in debt-equity ratios are shown to be consistent with deviations from rationality.

Abstract:
Among political practitioners, there is conventional wisdom about the outcomes of critical and salient legislative votes. 'This vote,' we hear, ' will either win by a little or lose by a lot.' Real-world examples suggest coalition leaders purchase 'hip-pocket' votes and "if you need me" pledges, which are converted to favorable votes when they will yield a victory. When the outcome is uncertain, such a process -- securing commitments in advance and calling them in if necessary -- is advantageous relative to traditional vote buying. Excess votes are not bought, nor are votes purchased for a losing effort. In effect, the leader secures options on votes. Given uncertainty, buying vote options yields two outcomes in conceivably winnable situations, one a narrow victory, the other a substantial loss. Such a distribution of outcomes is not explicable in a traditional vote-buying framework. We look for evidence of this pattern -- the tracings of 'if you need me pledges' -- by examining all Congressional Quarterly key votes from 1975 through 1998. On these critical and salient votes, narrow victories are much more frequent than narrow losses. Furthermore, when leaders lose key votes, as predicted, they lose by bigger margins than when they win. Finally, we discuss leadership strategies for keeping 'narrow wins' from unraveling into 'big losses.'

Abstract:

Abstract:
This paper explores the relationship between the demographic characteristics of a community and the quantities of goods and services provided by its government. We consider three models of public spending: a traditional "selfish" public choice model in which individuals care only about themselves, a "community preference" model in which an individual's preferred spending depends on the characteristics of his or her community, and a sorting process through which individuals choose communities according to their tastes for public spending.
To evaluate these models of spending, we examine how county and state spending in the United States is affected by the age and racial composition, and the total size of a jurisdiction. The estimated effects of demographic characteristics in the state equations are strikingly different from the estimated effects in the county equations, apparently because jurisdiction's spending is affected differently by its own demographic characteristics and by the characteristics of the surrounding area.

Abstract:
This study assesses the factors influencing the movement of people across health plans. We distinguish three types of cost-related transitions: adverse selection, the movement of the less healthy to more generous plans; adverse retention, the tendency for people to stay where they are when they get sick; and aging in place, where lack of all movement makes plans with initially older enrollees increase in cost over time. Using data from the Group Insurance Commission in Massachusetts, we show that aging in place and adverse selection are both quantitatively important. Each can materially impact equilibrium enrollments, especially when premiums to enrollees reflect these costs.

Welfare, Health Care, Social Policy, Microeconomics

Abstract:
This study assesses the factors influencing the movement of people across health plans. We distinguish three types of cost-related transitions: adverse selection, the movement of the less healthy to more generous plans; adverse retention, the tendency for people to stay where they are when they get sick; and aging in place, where lack of all movement makes plans with initially older enrollees increase in cost over time. Using data from the Group Insurance Commission in Massachusetts, we show that aging in place and adverse selection are both quantitatively important. Each can materially impact equilibrium enrollments, especially when premiums to enrollees reflect these costs.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
High-quality producers in a vertically differentiated market can reap superior profits by charging higher prices, selling greater quantities, or both. If qualities are known by consumers and production costs are constant, then having a higher quality secures the producer both higher price and higher quantity; if marginal costs are rising, having a higher quality assures only higher price. If only some consumers can discern quality but others cannot, then high- and low-quality producers may set a common price, but the high-quality producer will sell more. In this context, quality begets quantity. Empirical analyses suggest that in both the mutual fund and automobile industries, high-quality producers sell more units than their low-quality competitors, but at no higher price (or markup) per unit.

Abstract:
An important risk facing agents in a monetary economy arises from inflation uncertainty: in the U.S. for the 1953-84 period, unexpected quarterly inflation had a standard deviation of 2.1%. The costs of such uncertainty are likely to be even higher for multi-year contracts, since we estimate that a 1% unexpected inflation this year implies an upward revision of 0.43% for expected inflation for the forthcoming year and 1% for the years beyond that. The prospect of hedging inflation risk exposure using conventional financial instruments is bleak, as has been widely documented. We develop a theoretical case for Treasury bill futures as a inflation risk hedge by jointly assuming that (1) the Fisher Hypothesis applies to Treasury bill yields, (2) the Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis (UEH) applies to futures prices, and (3) inflation is an autoregressive process. Our empirical analysis shows that Treasury bill futures can reduce single-period inflation risk by about 30-40%. The expected cost of using such futures is close to zero, since we find that the Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis for Treasury bill futures cannot be rejected. Our results provide new indirect support for the Fisher Hypothesis.

Abstract:
Policymaking for posterity involves current decisions with distant consequences. Contrary to conventional prescriptions, we conclude that the greater wealth of future generations may strengthen the case for preserving environmental amenities; lower discount rates should be applied to the far future, and special effort should be made to avoid actions that impose costs on future generations. -- Posterity brings great uncertainties. Even massive losses, such as human extinction, however, do not merit infinite negative utility. Given learning, greater uncertainties about damages could increase or decrease the optimal level of current mitigation activities. -- Policies for posterity should anticipate effects on: alternative investments, both public and private; the actions of other nations; and the behaviors of future generations. Such effects may surprise. -- This analysis blends traditional public finance and behavioral economics with a number of hypothetical choice problems.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
We examine the investment decision problem of a group whose members have heterogeneous time preferences. In particular, they have different discount factors for utility, possibly not exponential. We characterize the properties of efficient allocations of resources and of shadow prices that would decentralize such allocations. We show in particular that the term structure of interest rates is decreasing when all members have DARA preferences. Heterogeneous groups should not use exponential discounting for their collective investment decisions even if all agents discount exponentially. We also exhibit conditions that lead the representative agent to have a rate of impatience that decreases with GDP per capita.

Abstract:
In this paper, we compare the attitude towards current risk of two expected-utility-maximizing investors that are identical except that the first investor will live longer than the" second one. In one of the models under consideration, there are two assets at every period. The" first asset has a zero sure return, whereas the second asset is risky without serial correlation of" yields. It is often suggested that the young investor should purchase more of the risky asset than" the old investor in such circumstances. We show that a necessary and sufficient condition to get" this property is that the Arrow-Pratt index of absolute tolerance (Tu) be convex. If we allow for a" positive risk-free rate, the necessary and sufficient condition is Tu convex extends the well-known result that investors are myopic in this model if and only if the utility" function exhibits constant relative risk aversion.

Abstract:
The pecuniary effects of cash and in-kind programs differ. A program that builds housing for the poor, for example, is likely to result in a lower price of existing low-income housing that would an equally costly cash transfer program. Low-income renters in general would benefit; landlords would lose. The process we label Robin-Hooding rents employs in-kind programs to transfer rents from one group in society to another.

Direct taxation of "donor" groups may be infeasible because their incomes can't be monitored, they are engaged in illegal activities, they are foreign, or the government's administrative apparatus is ineffective. A general equilibrium analysis reveals that absent the ability to target taxation, Robin-Hooding may be a valuable second-best transfer instrument.

Robin-Hooding also has drawbacks. Its incentive effects are significant, for today's rents flow from yesterday's investment activities. Moreover, even when Robin-Hooding is undesirable, parochial government agencies may be tempted to employ it as a means to escape the scrutiny of the budget process.

The real world use of Robin-Hooding in both developed and developing nations is discussed.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
To customize treatments to individual patients entails costs of coordination and cognition. Thus, providers sometimes choose treatments based on norms for broad classes of patients. We develop behavioral hypotheses explaining when and why doctors customize to the particular patient, and when instead they employ ready-to-wear treatments. Our empirical studies examining length of office visits and physician prescribing behavior find evidence of norm-following behavior. Some such behavior, from our studies and from the literature, proves sensible; but other behavior seems far from optimal.

Abstract:
A price-setting seller faces a buyer with unknown reservation value. We show that if the buyer is sufficiently risk averse, the seller can benefit from employing a Possibly-Final Offer (PFO) strategy. In a PFO, if the buyer rejects the seller's initial offer the seller sometimes terminates the interaction. If the seller does not terminate, he follows up with a subsequent, more attractive offer. As the buyer's risk aversion increases, the seller's expected profit under the optimal PFO approaches the full-information profit. These results extend to contexts with endogenous commitment, multiple types of buyers, multidimensional objects, and nonseparable utility functions.

Abstract:
A nationally representative sample of respondents estimated their fatality risks from four types of natural disasters, and indicated whether they favored governmental disaster relief. For all hazards, including auto accident risks, most respondents assessed their risks as being below average, with one-third assessing them as average. Individuals from high-risk states, or with experience with disasters, estimate risks higher, though by less than reasonable calculations require. Four-fifths of our respondents favor government relief for disaster victims, but only one-third do for victims in high-risk areas. Individuals who perceive themselves at higher risk are more supportive of government assistance.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Pensions influence retirement decisions. The analysis provides a framework for assessing the phenomenon. The qualitative features of most defined benefit pension plans in the United States, as the first section demonstrates, can be used to induce optimal retirement choices. Pensions are viewed as a form of forced savings; their purposeis to enable the worker to "commit himself" by making it in his own self-interest to retire at an appropriate age. The remaining sections examine the use of pensions in populations that are heterogeneous with respect to such features as disutility of work or expected lifespan.Given heterogeneity, a major policy concern is whether pensions are actuarially fair to different groups, retirement cohorts,etc. It is proven that optimal pension plans cannot be actuarially more than fair, in the sense that someone who retires later must impose a smaller cost on the pension pool than he would were he to retire earlier. However, there are differences in life expectancy among cohorts defined by retirement age: late retirees generallyl ive longer. Late retirees may thus impose a greater expected cost on the pension fund under an optimal plan; interestingly, they do impose a higher cost than those retiring earlier under most common pension funds.In a first-best world, a separate pension plan would be designed for each group of workers. But, government-mandated retirement programs and legislation regulating private pensions require common treatment of different workers. Such homogenization is shown to work to the possible detriment of workers as a whole. Pensions are a workhorse compensation mechanism. They provide an additional instrument beyond wages for attracting, motivating, sorting, and retaining workers, while facilitating appropriate retirement decisions.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Requiring agents with private information to select from a menu of incentive schedules can yield efficiency gains. It will do so if, and only if, agents will receive further private information after selecting the incentive schedule but before taking the action that determines where on the incentive schedule they end up. We argue that this information structure is relevant in many applications. We develop the theory underlying optimal menus of non-linear schedules and prove that there exists a menu of schedules that offers a strict first-order interim Pareto improvement over the optimal single non-linear schedule. We quantify the gains from schedule selection in two settings. The first is a stylized example of a monopolistic utility company increasing profits by offering a menu of price plans. The second is a simulation based on U.S. earnings data, which shows that moving to a tax system that allows individuals to choose their tax schedule increases social welfare by the same amount as would occur from a 4.0 percent windfall gain in the government budget (or about $600 per filer per year). The resulting reduction in distortions accounts for about two thirds of the increase in social welfare while the remainder comes from an increase in redistribution.

Abstract:
We examine an economy whose consumers have different discount factors for utility, possibly not exponential. We characterize the properties of efficient allocations of resources and of the shadow prices that would decentralize such allocations. We show in particular that the representative agent has a decreasing discount rate when, as is usually posited, all of a group's members have a constant discount rate and decreasing absolute risk aversion preferences. We also identify conditions that lead the representative agent to have a rate of impatience that decreases with gross domestic product per capita.

Abstract:
This paper employs experiments to determine how effectively arrangements decreasing the expected cost of trust betrayal foster trust in three Gulf countries (Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates), and two Western countries (Switzerland and the United States). Our basic instrument elicits subjects' minimum acceptable probabilities for trustworthiness that would make them just willing to trust. Trust proves more elastic to the likelihood and the cost of betrayal in the West than in the Gulf. Risk aversion and betrayal aversion contribute to this difference. The disparities between the West and the Gulf are driven more by men than by women.

Economics, Microeconomics, Leadership, Conflict Management, Trust, betrayal aversion, gender differences, in-group preferences

Abstract:
Survivorship in a panel sample may depend on performance. The lack of randomness introduced challenges unbiased robust inference. If variance of performance over time is heterogeneous, spurious performance persistence may be observed in samples of survivors (Brown, Goetzmann, Ibbotson and Ross, 1992). However, we show that if the categorization of performance is sufficiently fine, the spurious persistence will be J-shaped. This pattern can be distinguished from the monotonic increasing pattern produced by true performance persistence (which has been observed with mutual funds). We confirm the emergence of the J-shape with simulations. A simple t-test applied to the quadratic coefficient in a regression enables us to distinguish between the J-shaped and monotonic patterns.

Abstract:
Willingness to pay (WTP), most economists believe, is an appropriate benefits metric for government expenditure and regulatory policies that reduce risks to human life. It depends, however, on the distribution of risk and wealth. Currently, society's expenditures overemphasize concentrated risks, say after-the-fact treatment as opposed to prevention. A "dead-anyway" effect complements excess attention to intense interests in explaining this. Our normative criterion for spending on risk reduction is what a rational, albeit uninsured, individual confronting lotteries on future risks to life and wealth would choose for himself. This requires correcting WTP to eliminate the dead-anyway effect but continues to reflect that wealth enhances the utility of living.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the nature of wage changes over a decade of labor market experience. Discontinuous changes (jumps) account for the preponderance of wage increases, as wage falls do for declines. A worker's jump and fall history also influences the likelihood of both promotions and quits leading to higher wages. Wage jumps and falls are more prevalent among black workers and less prevalent among females and union workers. Cumulative real wage changes over the decade are distributed unevenly in the population, and long-term real wage changes are largely due to wage jumps. Wage jumps are consistent with both internal labor market theories and recent theories of incentives and contests.

Abstract:
Economics typically assumes that injured natural resources are restored along a fixed path of increasing marginal costs. By contrast, many restoration efforts -- such as cleaning a contaminated aquifer or replacing the sand on an oil-tarnished beach -- are characterized by destination-driven costs, which depend mainly on final quality, not the pre-restoration quality. Given the resulting non-convexities in cost, the optimal level of restoration may be a discontinuous and non-monotonic function of post-injury quality. Regulatory rules should reflect these patterns, as should liability rules, since restoration plans and costs determine the expected cost of putting a resource at risk.

Abstract:
Earnings provide important information for investment decisions. Thus executives--who are monitored by investors, directors, customers, and suppliers--acting in self-interest and at times for shareholders, have strong incentives to manage earnings. We introduce behavioral thresholds for earnings management. A model shows how thresholds induce specific types of earnings management. Empirical explorations identify earnings management to exceed each of three thresholds: report of positive profits, sustain recent performance, and meet analysts' expectations. The positive profits threshold proves predominant. The future performance of firms that have possibly boosted earnings just across a threshold appears poorer than that of less suspect control groups.

Abstract:
Investors are keenly interested in financial reports of earnings because earnings provide important information for investment decisions. Thus, executives who are monitored by investors and directors face strong incentives to manage earnings. We introduce consideration of behavioural/institutional thresholds for earnings in this mix of incentives and governance. A model illustrates how thresholds induce specific types of earnings management. Empirical explorations find clear support for earnings management to exceed each of the three thresholds that we consider: positive profits, sustain-recent-performance, and meet-market-expectations. The thresholds are hierarchically ranked. The future performance of firms that possibly boost earnings to just cross a threshold appears to be poorer than that of less suspect control groups.

Abstract:
Catastrophes provide a principal justification for insurance. Traditional conceptions of catastrophes miss three critical elements: (1) Many catastrophes, the liability revolution in the United States for example, are not bolts from the blue. Rather, they develop over many years and result from human activity. (2) Conventional, experienced-based models for assessing losses often smudge the distinction, so critical for catastrophes, between probability and magnitude of loss. (3) Normal insurance contracts, with heavy copayments for small losses but little charge at the margin for large ones, perform poorly when the insured can tradeoff probability and size of loss, a phenomenon we label distribution distortion.

Abstract:
The U.S. hospital industry is unusual in that for-profit, private nonprofit, and public entities compete side-by-side. We evaluate alternate theories of the nonprofit form employing three approaches: an historical review, a case study, and an econometric analysis. The metaphor of an ecosystem, bringing to mind disparate organizations in coadapting relationships, helps explain the historical ebbs and flows of ownership structures in the U.S. hospital industry. The entry and exit of for-profit hospitals appears consistent with dynamic efficiency in resource allocation. Our econometric analysis focuses on hospital behaviors in California and Florida during 1982-1990, a period corresponding to a shift in the reimbursement system from cost-pass-through to fixed price. The reimbursement change does not lead to differences in the mix of services provided by different ownership forms. While for-profits reduce their level of uncompensated care, their payer mix of Medicare, Medicaid and private patients continues to be similar to that of nonprofit non-teaching hospitals. No absolute cost advantages to for-profits emerge, not even relative success in cost containment by large-chain for-profits. The main response of large-chain for-profits to reimbursement pressures has been reorganizations.

Abstract:
This paper analyses corporate risk choice when firms and their managers have private information regarding firm quality. Managers representing themselves or shareholders have a short time horizon and wish to boost the firm's reputation in the market. Investors observe the firm's current earnings to assess firm quality. Each firm has an opportunity locus for trading off risk and expected return. We show that even risk-neutral managers will choose risk strategically to influence market perceptions. Our model employs the following sequence: (1) a manager learns the firm's type (good or bad), which determines its opportunity locus relating to risk and expected return; (2) the manager selects a level of risk; (3) a period payoff is reaped; (4) potential purchasers of the firm draw inferences from the period payoff; and (5) the firm is sold in a competitive auction. If firms' choices of risk are observed by the market, pooling behavior results. Among the pooling equilibria, we show that good firms prefer those with lower variance, which reveal more information, whereas bad firms prefer higher variance equilibria. If risk level choices can only be partially observed, as we expect, and if the market has no strong prior belief about whether firms are good or bad, then good firms will hedge and bad firms will gamble. The latter seek to masquerade as good firms; good firms in turn seek to distinguish themselves. If the markets prior beliefs are highly unfavorable (favorable), both types gamble (hedge) hoping to alter (avoid refuting) these beliefs. Our empirical evidence confirms our theoretical results when risk choices are not fully observed. Firms with higher returns on assets have less variable performance.