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Abstract:
We develop the approach of Gokhale, Kotlikoff & Sabelhaus (1996), based on the lifecycle model of savings, to decompose the differences in the national saving rates between the UK, US and Italy. Our work suggests that the US saving rate is lower principally because Americans on average retire later. In contrast, the Italian saving rate is higher predominantly because Italians are credit constrained, particularly when young. We also found that demography and the different tax and benefit systems are able to explain little of the cross-sectional differences in saving rates. The study accounts for the possible importance of intergenerational private transfers in determining saving rates.

Saving Rates, International Comparisons, Intergenerational Transfers, Borrowing Constraints

Abstract:
This paper develops, calibrates, and simulates a dynamic 88-period OLG model to study the intergenerational transmission of U.S. wealth inequality via bequests. The model features marriage, realistic fertility patterns, random death, assortative mating based on skills, heterogeneous skill endowments, heterogeneous rates of return, skill inheritability, progressive income taxation, and resource annuitization via social security. All bequests arise from imperfect annuitization. Nonetheless, the model generates a realistic ration of aggregate wealth to aggregate labor income, a realistic bequest flow relative to the stock of wealth, and a realistic wealth distribution at retirement. Skill differences, assortative mating, social security, and the time preference are the primary determinants of wealth inequality. Bequests do propagate wealth inequality, but only in the presence of social security, which disproportionately disinherits the lifetime poor. Intergenerational wealth immobility, also considered here, is primarily determined by the inheritance of skills from one's parents and the magnification of the impact of this inheritance by marital sorting.

Abstract:
This Paper considers the optimal design of public pension provision for the retired and income support for those of working age. We consider social security systems that differ in terms of the level of benefits, degree of means testing and the nature of contributions. We aim to find which system maximises the expected utility of agents behind an initial veil of ignorance about their future labour productivity. We also explore whether systems which differ from the (ex-ante) optimal one could be reformed. We ask whether agents who already know what their productivity is would vote for a move towards a system that they would have found optimal from behind a veil of ignorance about their own position on the wages ladder. We also consider which systems could be sustained in an economy where reform is decided by majority voting. We find a substantial role for means testing in optimal welfare systems. We also find the possibility of multiple equilbria in welfare systems.

Social Security, pensions, optimal taxes

Abstract:
This paper derives a concept of aggregate real income for a competitive economy in general equilibrium consisting of heterogeneous infinitely lived people and relates it to current and future consumption possibilities. An important characteristic of our measure of income, which we call Real Income, is that deflation is carried out using a consumption deflator rather than any price index of output. We suggest that it may be inappropriate to regard capital gains as income. We also present a coherent treatment of the effects of changes to the terms of trade on Real Income and explain the implications of this for resource-exporting economies.

Abstract:
The extensive literature on price momentum effects is a potential source of confusion for portfolio managers because conflicting explanations give rise to different implications for portfolio strategy. Analysis of the value-weighted large-capitalization universe represented by the MSCI World Index indicates that price momentum is driven largely by industry momentum, not individual-stock momentum, and that it is not a result of cross-sectional dispersion in industry mean returns or varying industry exposure to systematic risk. In a small-cap universe, stock-specific effects assume greater importance. For sample periods 1992-2003 and 1980-2003, value investors would have reduced risk by imposing sector neutrality on their portfolios whereas growth managers could have profited by relaxing sector constraints.

Equity investments, technical analysis, portfolio management, equity strategies

Abstract:
This paper develops, calibrates, and simulates a dynamic 88-period OLG model to study the intergenerational transmission of U.S. wealth inequality via bequests. The model features marriage, realistic fertility patterns, random death, assortative mating based on skills, heterogeneous skill endowments, heterogeneous rates of return, skill inheritability, progressive income taxation, and resource annuitization via social security. All bequests arise from imperfect annuitization. Nonetheless, the model generates a realistic ratio of aggregate wealth to aggregate labor income, a realistic bequest flow relative to the stock of wealth, and a realistic wealth distribution at retirement. Skill differences, assortative mating, social security, and the time preference are the primary determinants of wealth inequality. Bequests do propagate wealth inequality, but only in the presence of social security, which disproportionately disinherits the lifetime poor. Intergenerational wealth immobility, also considered here, is primarily determined by the inheritance of skills from one's parents and the magnification of the impact of this inheritance by marital sorting.