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Abstract:
We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume when agents face fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large "no-trade" regions for each agent's optimal trading policy. The inability to trade more frequently reduces the agents' asset demand and in equilibrium gives rise to a significant illiquidity discount in asset prices.

Abstract:
We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume with heterogeneous agents facing fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large 'no-trade' regions for each agent's optimal trading policy and a significant illiquidity discount in asset prices. We perform a calibration exercise to illustrate the empirical relevance of our model for aggregate data. Our model also has implications for the dynamics of order flow, bid/ask spreads, market depth, the allocation of trading costs between buyers and sellers, and other aspects of market microstructure, including a square-root power law between trading volume and fixed costs which we confirm using historical US stock market data from 1993 to 1997.

Abstract:
We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume with heterogeneous agents fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large "no-trade" regions for each agent's optimal trading policy and a significant illiquidity discount in asset prices. We perform a calibration exercise to illustrate the empirical relevance of our model for aggregate data. Our model also has implications for the dynamics of order flow, bid/ask spreads, market depth, the allocation of trading costs between buyers and sellers, and other aspects of market microstructure, including a square-root power law between trading volume and fixed costs which we confirm using historical US stock market data from 1993 to 1997.

Asset Pricing, Liquidity, Trading Volume, Transaction Costs

Abstract:
Milton Friedman argued that irrational traders will consistently lose money, won't survive and, therefore, cannot influence long run asset prices. Since his work, survival and price impact have been assumed to be the same. In this paper, we demonstrate that survival and price impact are two independent concepts. The price impact of irrational traders does not rely on their long-run survival and they can have a significant impact on asset prices even when their wealth becomes negligible. We also show that irrational traders' portfolio policies can deviate from their limits long after the price process approaches its long-run limit. In contrast to a partial equilibrium analysis, these general equilibrium considerations matter for the irrational traders' long-run survival.

Irrational Traders, Price Impact, Price Influence, Survival, Irrationality, Long Run Prices

Abstract:
Milton Friedman argued that irrational traders will consistently lose money, won't survive and, therefore, cannot influence long run asset prices. Since his work, survival and price impact have been assumed to be the same. In this paper, we demonstrate that survival and price impact are two independent concepts. The price impact of irrational traders does not rely on their long-run survival and they can have a significant impact on asset prices even when their wealth becomes negligible. We also show that irrational traders' portfolio policies can deviate from their limits long after the price process approaches its long-run limit. In contrast to a partial equilibrium analysis, these general equilibrium considerations matter for the irrational traders' long-run survival.

Irrational Traders, Price Impact, Price Influence, Survival, Irrationality, Long Run Prices

Abstract:
Milton Friedman argued that irrational traders will consistently lose money, won't survive and, therefore, cannot influence long run equilibrium asset prices. Since his work, survival and price influence have been assumed to be the same. Often partial equilibrium analysis has been relied upon to examine the survival of irrational traders and to make inferences on their influence on prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that survival and influence on prices are two independent concepts. The price impact of irrational traders does not rely on their long-run survival and they can have a significant impact on asset prices even when their wealth becomes negligible. In addition, in contrast to a partial equilibrium analysis, general equilibrium considerations matter since the ability of irrational traders to impact prices even when their wealth is diminishing can significantly affect their chances for long-run survival. In sum, in a long-run equilibrium, we explicitly show that price impact can occur whether or not the irrational traders survive. In related work, we show that even if the irrational traders survive they may have no price impact.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
The supply/demand of a security in the market is an intertemporal, not a static, object and its dynamics is crucial in determining market participants' trading behavior. Previous studies on the optimal trading strategy to execute a given order focuses mostly on the static properties of the supply/demand. In this paper, we show that the dynamics of the supply/demand is of critical importance to the optimal execution strategy, especially when trading times are endogenously chosen. Using a limit-order-book market, we develop a simple framework to model the dynamics of supply/demand and its impact on execution cost. We show that the optimal execution strategy involves both discrete and continuous trades, not only continuous trades as previous work suggested. The cost savings from the optimal strategy over the simple continuous strategy can be substantial. We also show that the predictions about the optimal trading behavior can have interesting implications on the observed behavior of intraday volume, volatility and prices.

Abstract:
The supply/demand of a security in the market is an intertemporal, not a static, object and its dynamics are crucial in determining market participants' trading behavior. Previous studies on the optimal trading strategy to execute a given order focuses mostly on the static properties of the supply/demand. In this paper, we show that the dynamics of the supply/demand are of critical importance to the optimal execution strategy, especially when trading times are endogenously chosen. Using the limit-order-book market, we develop a simple framework to model the dynamics of supply/demand and their impact on execution cost. We show that the optimal execution strategy involves both discrete and continuous trades, not only continuous trades as previous work suggested. The cost savings from the optimal strategy over the simple continuous strategy can be substantial. We also show that the predictions about the optimal trading behavior can have interesting implications on the observed behavior of intraday volume, volatility and prices.

price impact; limit order book; optimal execution

Abstract:
The supply/demand of a security in the market is an intertemporal, not a static, object and its dynamics is crucial in determining market participants' trading behavior. Previous studies on the optimal trading strategy to execute a given order focuses mostly on the static properties of the supply/demand. In this paper, we show that the dynamics of the supply/demand is of critical importance to the optimal execution strategy, especially when trading times are endogenously chosen. Using the limit-order-book market, we develop a simple framework to model the dynamics of supply/demand and its impact on execution cost. We show that the optimal execution strategy involves both discrete and continuous trades, not only continuous trades as previous work suggested. The cost savings from the optimal strategy over the simple continuous strategy can be substantial. We also show that the predictions about the optimal trading behavior can have interesting implications on the observed behavior of intraday volume, volatility and prices.

Market impact, trading strategy, optimal execution, limit order market, liquidity modeling

Abstract:
We derive an intertemporal capital asset pricing model with multiple assets and heterogeneous investors, and explore its implications for the behavior of trading volume and asset returns. Assets contain two types of risks: market risk and the risk of changing market conditions. We show that investors trade only in two portfolios: the market portfolio, and a hedging portfolio, which allows them to hedge the dynamic risk. This implies that trading volume of individual assets exhibit a two-factor structure, and their factor loadings depend on their weights in the hedging portfolio. This allows us to empirically identify the hedging portfolio using volume data. We then test the two properties of the hedging portfolio: its return provides the best predictor of future market returns and its return together with the return of the market portfolio are the two risk factors determining the cross-section of asset returns.

Abstract:
We derive an intertemporal capital asset pricing model with multiple assets and heterogeneous investors, and explore its implications for the behavior of trading volume and asset returns. Assets contain two types of risks: market risk and the risk of changing market conditions. We show that investors trade only in two portfolios: the market portfolio, and a hedging portfolio, which allows them to hedge the dynamic risk. This implies that trading volume of individual assets exhibit a two-factor structure, and their factor loadings depend on their weights in the hedging portfolio. This allows us to empirically identify the hedging portfolio using volume data. We then test the two properties of the hedging portfolio: its return provides the best predictor of future market returns and its return together with the return of the market portfolio are the two risk factors determining the cross-section of asset returns.

Trading Volume, Asset Pricing, Market Microstructure, Market Efficiency

Abstract:
We examine the dynamic relation between return and volume of individual stocks. Using a simple model in which investors trade to share risk or speculate on private information, we show that returns generated by risk-sharing trades tend to reverse themselves while returns generated by speculative trades tend to continue themselves. We test this theoretical prediction by analyzing the relation between daily volume and first-order return autocorrelation for individual stocks listed on the NYSE and AMEX. We find that the cross-sectional variation in the relation between volume and return autocorrelation is related to the extent of informed trading in a manner consistent with the theoretical prediction.

Abstract:
We examine the dynamic relation between return and volume of individual stocks. Using a simple model in which investors trade to share risk or speculate on private information, we show that returns generated by risk-sharing trades tend to reverse themselves while returns generated by speculative trades tend to continue themselves. We test this theoretical prediction by analyzing the relation between daily volume and first-order return autocorrelation for individual stocks listed on the NYSE and AMEX. We find that the cross-sectional variation in the relation between volume and return autocorrelation is related to the extent of informed trading in a manner consistent with the theoretical prediction.

Abstract:
In this paper, we develop an equilibrium model for stock market liquidity and its impact on asset prices when constant market presence is costly. We show that even when agents' trading needs are perfectly matched, costly market presence prevents them from synchronizing their trades and hence gives rise to endogenous order imbalances and the need for liquidity. Moreover, the endogenous liquidity need, when it occurs, is characterized by excessive selling of significant magnitudes. Such liquidity-driven selling leads to market crashes in the absence of any aggregate shocks. Finally, we show that illiquidity in the market leads to high expected returns, negative and asymmetric return serial correlation, and a positive relation between trading volume and future returns. We also propose new measures of liquidity based on its asymmetric impact on prices and demonstrate a negative relation between these measures and expected stock returns.

D53, G12

Abstract:
In this paper, we develop an equilibrium model for stock market liquidity and its impact on asset prices when constant market presence is costly. We show that even when agents' trading needs are perfectly matched, costly market presence prevents them from synchronizing their trades and hence gives rise to endogenous order imbalances and the need for liquidity. Moreover, the endogenous liquidity need, when it occurs, is characterized by excessive selling of significant magnitudes. Such liquidity-driven selling leads to market crashes in the absence of any aggregate shocks. Finally, we show that illiquidity in the market leads to high expected returns, negative and asymmetric return serial correlation, and a positive relation between trading volume and future returns. We also propose new measures of liquidity based on its asymmetric impact on prices and demonstrate a negative relation between these measures and expected stock returns.

Abstract:
In this paper, we develop an equilibrium model for stock market liquidity and its impact on asset prices when constant market presence is costly. We show that even when agents' trading needs are perfectly matched, costly market presence prevents them from synchronizing their trades and hence gives rise to endogenous order imbalances and the need for liquidity. Moreover, the endogenous liquidity need, when it occurs, is characterized by excessive selling of significant magnitudes. Such liquidity-driven selling leads to market crashes in the absence of any aggregate shocks. Finally, we show that illiquidity in the market leads to high expected returns, negative and asymmetric return serial correlation, and a positive relation between trading volume and future returns. We also propose new measures of liquidity based on its asymmetric impact on prices and demonstrate a negative relation between these measures and expected stock returns.

liquidity, asset prices, crash

Abstract:
If price and quantity are the fundamental building blocks of any theory of market interactions, the importance of trading volume in understanding the behavior of financial markets is clear. However, while many economic models of financial markets have been developed to explain the behavior of prices - predictability, variability, and information content - far less attention has been devoted to explaining the behavior of trading volume. In this chapter, we hope to expand our understanding of trading volume by developing well-articulated economic models of asset prices and volume and empirically estimating them using recently available daily volume data for individual securities from the University of Chicago's Center for Research in Securities Prices. Our theoretical contributions include: (1) an economic definition of volume that is most consistent with theoretical models of trading activity; (2) the derivation of volume implications of basic portfolio theory; and (3) the development of an intertemporal equilibrium model of asset market in which the trading process is determined endogenously by liquidity needs and risk-sharing motives. Our empirical contributions include: (1) the construction of a volume/returns database extract of the CRSP volume data; (2) comprehensive exploratory data analysis of both the time-series and cross-sectional properties of trading volume; (3) estimation and inference for price/volume relations implied by asset-pricing models; and (4) a new approach for empirically identifying factors to be included in a linear-factor model of asset returns using volume data.

Trading Volume, Asset Pricing, Portfolio Theory, Mean-Variance Optimization

Abstract:
This paper examines the liquidity of corporate bonds and its asset-pricing implications using a novel measure of illiquidity based on the magnitude of transitory price movements. Using transaction-level data for a broad cross-section of corporate bonds from 2003 through 2007, we find the illiquidity in corporate bonds to be significant, substantially greater than what can be explained by bid-ask bounce, and closely linked to liquidity-related bond characteristics. More importantly, we find a strong commonality in the time variation of bond illiquidity, which rises sharply during market crises and reaches an all-time high during the recent sub-prime mortgage crisis. Monthly changes in this aggregate bond illiquidity are strongly related to changes in the CBOE VIX Index and lagged stock market returns. Examining its relation with bond pricing, we find that our measure of illiquidity explains the cross-sectional variation in average bond yield spreads with large economic significance.

Abstract:
Technical analysis, also known as "charting," has been part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder. In this paper, we propose a systematic and automatic approach to technical pattern recognition using nonparametric kernel regression, and apply this method to a large number of U.S. stocks from 1962 to 1996 to evaluate the effectiveness to technical analysis. By comparing the unconditional empirical distribution of daily stock returns to the conditional distribution conditioned on specific technical indicators such as head-and-shoulders or double-bottoms we find that over the 31-year sample period, several technical indicators do provide incremental information and may have some practical value.

Abstract:
Technical analysis, also known as "charting," has been a part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis - the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder. In this paper, we propose a systematic and automatic approach to technical pattern recognition using nonparametric kernel regression, and apply this method to a large number of U.S. stocks from 1962 to 1996 to evaluate the effectiveness of technical analysis. By comparing the unconditional empirical distribution of daily stock returns to the conditional distribution - conditioned on specific technical indicators such as head-and-shoulders or double-bottoms - we find that over the 31-year sample period, several technical indicators do provide incremental information and may have some practical value.

Abstract:
The performance of a given portfolio policy can in principle be evaluated by comparing its expected utility with that of the optimal policy. Unfortunately, the optimal policy is usually not computable in which case a direct comparison is impossible. In this paper we solve this problem by using the given portfolio policy to construct an upper bound on the unknown maximum expected utility. This construction is based on a dual formulation of the portfolio optimization problem. When the upper bound is close to the expected utility achieved by the given portfolio policy, the potential utility loss of this policy is guaranteed to be small. Our algorithm can be used to evaluate portfolio policies in models with incomplete markets and position constraints. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing the static and myopic policies in markets with return predictability and constraints on short sales and borrowing.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
The performance of a given portfolio policy can in principle be evaluated by comparing its expected utility with that of the optimal policy. Unfortunately, the optimal policy is usually not computable in which case a direct comparison is impossible. In this paper we solve this problem by using the given portfolio policy to construct an upper bound on the unknown maximum expected utility. This construction is based on a dual formulation of the portfolio optimization problem. When the upper bound is close to the expected utility achieved by the given portfolio policy, the potential utility loss of this policy is guaranteed to be small. Our algorithm can be used to evaluate portfolio policies in models with incomplete markets and position constraints. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing the static and myopic policies in markets with return predictability and constraints on short sales and borrowing.

Portfolio Choice, Duality, Dynamic Programming, Constraints, Monte Carlo, Simulation

Abstract:
The hypothesis that financial markets punish traders who make relatively inaccurate forecasts and eventually eliminate the effect of their beliefs on prices is of fundamental importance to the standard modeling paradigm in asset pricing. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for agents making inferior forecasts to survive and to affect prices in the long run in a general setting with minimal restrictions on endowments, beliefs, or utility functions. We show that the market selection hypothesis is valid for economies with bounded endowments or bounded relative risk aversion, but it cannot be substantially generalized to a broader class of models. Instead, survival is determined by a comparison of the forecast errors to risk attitudes. The price impact of inaccurate forecasts is distinct from survival because price impact is determined by the volatility of traders' consumption shares rather than by their level. Our results also apply to economies with state-dependent preferences, such as habit formation.

Market Selection, Heterogeneous Beliefs, State-Dependent Utility, Survival, Price Impact

Abstract:
This paper presents an equilibrium model for the demand and supply of liquidity and its impact on asset prices and welfare. We show that when constant market presence is costly, purely idiosyncratic shocks lead to endogenous demand of liquidity and large price deviations from fundamentals. Moreover, market forces fail to lead to efficient supply of liquidity, which calls for potential policy interventions. However, we demonstrate that different policy tools can yield different efficiency consequences. For example, lowering the cost of supplying liquidity on the spot (e.g., through direct injection of liquidity or relaxation of ex post margin constraints) can decrease welfare while forcing more liquidity supply (e.g., through coordination of market participants) can improve welfare.

liquidity, transaction costs, asset prices, welfare

Abstract:
We develop a model to explore the effects of firms being buyers of last resort on stock returns and liquidity. Those with more ability to repurchase shares when prices drop far below fundamental value (less financially constrained ones) should have lower short horizon relative to long-horizon return variance and more positively skewed returns than other firms. Using standard proxies for financing constraints such as past repurchases and firm age, we find support for both of these predicted relations in the U.S. stock market. Consistent with our theory, these relations are stronger in the U.S. after 1982 when regulatory reforms lowered the legal cost of conducting repurchases; and among the ten largest stock markets in the world, they are stronger in countries where share repurchases are legally easier to execute. Using data on bid-ask spreads and price impact costs, we also find some support for the proposition that firm intervention makes it less risky for other traders to provide liquidity for its stock.

financing constraint, payout, asset price, mean reversion, volatility, skewness, liquidity

Abstract:
We study asset pricing and trading behavior in an exchange economy populated by two agents with different risk aversion. We show that the credit market plays a central role in the risk sharing between the two agents. It allows the less-risk-averse agent to borrow in order to take on levered positions in the stock and thus bear more risk. Optimal risk sharing results in the more-risk-averse agent effectively selling covered call" options to the less-risk-averse agent. As the state of the economy changes, the equilibrium amount of credit in the market also fluctuates, which in turn influences expected stock returns, stock return volatility, the term structure of interest rates, and trading activity in the stock market. We further explore the immediate empirical implication that variation in the size of the credit market is related to variation in expected stock returns. Using various measures of changes in the size of the credit market, we find that they have significant power in forecasting one-year excess returns of the stock market. Our results suggests that the credit sector is of fundamental importance to the behavior of asset prices.

Asset pricing, Credit market, Leverage

Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between stock market trading volume and the autocorrelations of daily stock index returns. The paper finds that stock return autocorrelations tend to decline with trading volume. The paper explains this phenomenon using a model in which risk-averse "market makers" accommodate buying or selling pressure from "liquidity" or "non-informational" traders. Changing expected stock returns reward market makers for playing this role. The model implies that a stock price decline on a high-volume day is more likely than a stock price decline on a low-volume day to be associated with an increase in the expected stock return.

Abstract:
We examine how liquidity and asset prices are affected by the following market imperfections: asymmetric information, participation costs, transaction costs, leverage constraints, non-competitive behavior and search. Our model has three periods: agents are identical in the first, become heterogeneous and trade in the second, and consume asset payoffs in the third. We examine how imperfections in the second period affect different measures of illiquidity, as well as asset prices in the first period. Besides nesting multiple imperfections in a single model, we derive new results on the effects of each imperfection. Our results imply, in particular, that imperfections do not always raise expected returns, and can influence common measures of illiquidity in opposite directions.

Asset prices, Liquidity, Market imperfections

Abstract:
We examine how liquidity and asset prices are affected by the following market imperfections: asymmetric information, participation costs, transaction costs, leverage constraints, non-competitive behavior and search. Our model has three periods: agents are identical in the first, become heterogeneous and trade in the second, and consume asset payoffs in the third. We examine how imperfections in the second period affect different measures of illiquidity, as well as asset prices in the first period. Besides nesting multiple imperfections in a single model, we derive new results on the effects of each imperfection. Our results imply, in particular, that imperfections do not always raise expected returns, and can influence common measures of illiquidity in opposite directions.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
We examine how liquidity and asset prices are affected by the following market imperfections: asymmetric information, participation costs, transaction costs, leverage constraints, non-competitive behavior and search. Our model has three periods: agents are identical in the first, become heterogeneous and trade in the second, and consume asset payoffs in the third. We examine how imperfections in the second period affect different measures of illiquidity, as well as asset prices in the first period. Besides nesting multiple imperfections in a single model, we derive new results on the effects of each imperfection. Our results imply, in particular, that imperfections do not always raise expected returns, and can influence common measures of illiquidity in opposite directions.

liquidity, asset prices, market imperfections

Abstract:
Option pricing formulas obtained from continuous-time no-arbitrage arguments such as the Black-Scholes formula generally do not depend on the drift term of the underlying asset's diffusion equation. However, the drift is essential for properly implementing such formulas empirically, since the numerical values of the parameters that do appear in the option pricing formula can depend intimately on the drift. In particular, if the underlying asset's returns are predictable, this will influence the theoretical value and the empirical estimate of the diffusion coefficient ?. We develop an adjustment to the Black-Scholes formula that accounts for predictability and show that this adjustment can be important even for small levels of predictability, especially for longer-maturity options. We propose a class of continuous-time linear diffusion processes for asset prices that can capture a wider variety of predictability, and provide several numerical examples that illustrate their importance for pricing options and other derivative assets.

Abstract:
The predictability of an asset's returns will affect option prices on that asset, even though predictability is typically induced by the drift which does not enter the option pricing formula. For discretely sampled data, predictability is linked to the parameters that do enter the option pricing formula. We construct an adjustment for predictability to the Black Scholes formula and show that this adjustment can be important even for small levels of predictability, especially for longer maturity options. We propose several continuous time linear diffusion processes that can capture broader forms of predictability, and provide numerical examples that illustrate their importance for pricing options.

Abstract:
We examine the implications of portfolio theory for the cross-sectional behavior of equity trading volume. Two-fund separation theorems suggest a natural definition for trading activity: share turnover. If two-fund separation holds, share turnover must be identical for all securities. If (K+1)-fund separation holds, we show that turnover satisfies an approximately linear K-factor structure. These implications are examined empirically using individual weekly turnover data for NYSE and AMEX securities from 1962 to 1996. We find strong evidence against two-fund separation, and a principal-components decomposition suggests that turnover is well approximated by a two-factor linear model.

Abstract:
We examine the implications of portfolio theory for the cross-sectional behavior of equity trading volume. Two-fund separation theorems suggest a natural definition for trading activity: share turnover. If two-fund separation holds, share turnover must be identical for all securities. If (K+1)-fund separation holds, we show that turnover satisfies an approximately linear K-factor structure. These implications are examined empirically using individual weekly turnover data for NYSE and AMEX securities from 1962 to 1996. We find strong evidence against two-fund separation, and a principal-components decomposition suggests that turnover is well approximated by a two-factor linear model.

Abstract:
We examine the dynamic relation between return and volume of individual stocks. Using a simple model in which investors trade to share risk or speculate on private information, we show that returns generated by risk-sharing trades tend to reverse themselves while returns generated by speculative trades tend to continue themselves. We test this theoretical prediction by analyzing the relation between daily volume and first-order return autocorrelation for individual stocks listed on the NYSE and AMEX. We find that the cross-sectional variation in the relation between volume and return autocorrelationis related to the extent of informed trading in a manner consistent with the theoretical prediction.

Abstract:
This paper develops a multi-period rational expectations model of stock trading in which investors have differential information concerning the underlying value of the stock. Investors trade competitively in the stock market based on their private information and the information revealed by the market-clearing prices, as well as other public news. We examine how trading volume is related to the information flow in the market and how investors' trading reveals their private information.

Abstract:
This paper develops a multi-period rational expectations model of stock trading in which investors have differential information concerning the underlying value of the stock. Investors trade competitively in the stock market based on their private information and the information revealed by the market-clearing prices, as well as other public news. We examine how trading volume is related to the information flow in the market and how investors' trading reveals their private information.

Abstract:
In this paper, we develop a methodology to identify money managers who have private information about future asset returns. The methodology does not rely on a specific risk model, such as the Sharpe ratio, CAPM, or APT. Instead, it relies on the observation that returns generated by managers with private information cannot be replicated by those without it. Using managers' trading records, we develop distribution-free tests that can identify such managers. We show that our approach is general with regard to the nature of private information the managers may have, and with regard to the trading strategies they may follow.

Abstract:
This paper presents an equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates when investors have heterogeneous preferences. The basic model considers a pure exchange economy of two classes of investors with different (but constant) relative risk-aversion and gives closed-form solutions to bond prices. We use the model to examine the effect of preference heterogeneity on the behavior of bond yields. Extensions to cases of more than two investors are also considered.

Abstract:
The hypothesis that financial markets punish traders who make relatively inaccurate forecasts and eventually eliminate the effect of their beliefs on prices is of fundamental importance to the standard modeling paradigm in asset pricing. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for agents making inferior forecasts to survive and to affect prices in the long run in a general setting with minimal restrictions on endowments, beliefs, or utility functions. We show that the market selection hypothesis is valid for economies with bounded endowments or bounded relative risk aversion, but it cannot be substantially generalized to a broader class of models. Instead, survival is determined by a comparison of the forecast errors to risk attitudes. The price impact of inaccurate forecasts is distinct from survival because price impact is determined by the volatility of traders’ consumption shares rather than by their level. Our results also apply to economies with state-dependent preferences, such as habit formation.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper presents an equilibrium model for the demand and supply of liquidity and its impact on asset prices and welfare. We show that when constant market presence is costly, purely idiosyncratic shocks lead to endogenous demand of liquidity and large price deviations from fundamentals. Moreover, market forces fail to lead to efficient supply of liquidity, which calls for potential policy interventions. However, we demonstrate that different policy tools can yield different efficiency consequences. For example, lowering the cost of supplying liquidity on the spot (e.g., through direct injection of liquidity or relaxation of ex post margin constraints) can decrease welfare while forcing more liquidity supply (e.g., through coordination of market participants) can improve welfare.