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Abstract:
We extend the analysis in Sloan (1996) to identify the source of information in accruals about earnings quality. Our results indicate that information in accruals about earnings quality is not limited to the current accruals analyzed by Sloan, but extends to non-current accruals. We also show that while information in accruals originates almost exclusively from asset accruals, liability accruals play a useful role in helping to isolate information in asset accruals about earnings quality. Finally, we show that information in accruals about earnings quality originates from both growth in the scale of operations and deterioration in the efficiency of asset usage. Overall, our results indicate that total accruals, defined as the difference between earnings and free cash flows, provide an intuitive, robust and parsimonious measure of earnings quality. Contrary to existing studies, our results also indicate that the information in accruals about earnings quality is not attributable to a single factor, such as 'discretionary' accruals or firm growth.

Accruals; Growth; Efficiency; Abnormal returns

Abstract:
It is well-established that the realized returns of ?growth? stocks have been low relative to other stocks. We show that this phenomenon is explained by a large and asymmetric response to negative earnings surprises for growth stocks. After controlling for this effect, there is no longer evidence of a stock return differential between growth stocks and other stocks. Our evidence is more consistent with investors having naively optimistic expectations about the prospects of growth stocks (e.g., Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny, 1994) than with the existence of unidentified risk factors that are lower for growth stocks (e.g., Fama and French, 1992).

Abstract:
We examine 2,190 SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAERs) issued between 1982 and 2005. We obtain 676 firms that are alleged to have misstated their quarterly or annual financial statements. We examine the characteristics of misstating firms along five dimensions: accrual quality; financial performance; non-financial measures; off-balance sheet activities; and market-based measures. We compare misstating firms to themselves during non-misstatement years and misstating firms to the broader population of all publicly listed firms. The results reveal that during misstatement years, accruals and cash and credit sales are unusually high, while return on assets and the number of employees are declining. In addition, misstating firms finance more of their assets through operating leases and have relatively less PP&E. We find that market pressures appear to affect incentives to misstate. Misstating firms are raising new financing, have higher market-to-book ratios, and strong prior stock price performance. We develop a model to predict accounting misstatements. The output of this model is a scaled logistic probability that we term the F-Score, where values greater than one suggest a greater likelihood of a misstatement.

earnings quality, accounting misstatement, fraud prediction, accrual quality, F-Score

Abstract:
This paper extends the work of Sloan (1996) by linking accrual reliability to earnings persistence. We construct a model showing that less reliable accruals lead to lower earnings persistence. We then develop a comprehensive balance sheet categorization of accruals and rate each category according to the reliability of the underlying accruals. Empirical tests generally confirm that less reliable categories of accruals lead to lower earnings persistence and that investors do not fully anticipate the lower earnings persistence, leading to significant security mispricing. We conclude that there are significant costs associated with the recognition of unreliable information in financial statements.

Accruals, reliability, earnings persistence, capital markets, market efficiency

Abstract:
Existing research indicates that firms with high accruals are more likely to experience future earnings reversals and SEC enforcement actions for GAAP violations, but that investors do not appear to anticipate these consequences. In this paper, we directly examine the published opinions of two types of professional investor intermediaries to see if they anticipate the consequences of high accruals. First, we examine the earnings forecasts of sell-side analysts. We show that analysts' earnings forecasts do not anticipate the future earnings reversals associated with high accruals. Second, we examine the audit opinions of independent auditors. We find no evidence that auditors signal the higher likelihood of GAAP violations through their audit opinions. Overall, our evidence indicates that even professional investor intermediaries act as if they do not anticipate the consequences of high accruals.

Abstract:
Firms with low ratios of fundamentals (such as earnings and book values) to market values are known to have systematically lower future stock returns. We document that short-sellers position themselves in the stock of such firms, and then cover their positions as the ratios revert to normal levels. We also show that short-sellers avoid firms where the transaction costs of short-selling are high and where the low ratios are due to temporarily low fundamentals, rather than temporarily high prices. Our evidence suggest that short-sellers use information in these ratios about either (i) temporary mispricing, or (ii) unknown risk factors, to boost their investment returns.

Abstract:
We develop a comprehensive and parsimonious measure of the extent to which a firm is raising (distributing) capital from (to) capital market participants. We show that the relation between our measure of net external financing and future stock returns is stronger than has been documented in previous research focusing on individual categories of financing transactions. Decompositions of our measure reveal additional insights. First, the weaker results of previous research are attributable to 'refinancing' transactions having no change on net external financing. Second, after controlling for refinancing transactions, there is a consistently strong and negative relation between all major categories of external financing transactions and future stock returns. Third, the negative relation between external financing and future stock returns is most consistent with a combination of over-investment and aggressive accounting.

External financing, Capital structure, Capital markets, Market efficiency

Abstract:
Bushman and Smith (2000) provide a useful review of research on the role of accounting in management compensation contracts and an appealing future research agenda that builds on recent research using a cross-country approach. This paper rounds out their discussion by highlighting some limitations of their research agenda, providing a critical review of the contributions of accounting scholars to governance research and highlighting research opportunities on the role of financial accounting in governance mechanisms other than managerial incentive contracts.

Corporate governance; Accounting; Contracting

Abstract:
Bushman and Smith (2000) provide a useful review of research on the role of accounting in management compensation contracts and an appealing future research agenda that builds on recent research using a cross-country approach. This paper rounds out their discussion by highlighting some limitations of their research agenda, providing a critical review of the contributions of accounting scholars to governance research and highlighting research opportunities on the role of financial accounting in governance mechanisms other than managerial incentive contracts.

Corporate governance; Accounting; Contracting

Abstract:
We derive a measure of implied equity duration as a natural extension of the traditional measure of bond duration and develop an algorithm for the empirical estimation of implied equity duration. We show that the standard empirical predictions and results for bond duration hold for our measure of implied equity duration and that implied equity duration represents an important common factor in stock returns. We also show that the book-to-market factor advocated by Fama and French (1993) acts as a noisy proxy for an underlying duration factor. Finally, we provide evidence that the long-run equity yield curve is downward sloping for durations up to 20 years. Our results suggest that existing empirical tests of asset pricing models using short holding period equity returns are misspecified.

Duration, risk, factors, premium, valuation, returns

Abstract:
We derive a measure of implied equity duration as a natural extension of the traditional measure of bond duration and develop an algorithm for the empirical estimation of implied equity duration. We show that the standard empirical predictions and results for bond duration hold for our measure of implied equity duration and that implied equity duration represents an important common factor in stock returns. We also show that the book-to-market factor advocated by Fama and French (1993) acts as a noisy proxy for an underlying duration factor. Finally, we provide evidence that the long-run equity yield curve is downward sloping for durations up to 20 years. Our results suggest that existing empirical tests of asset pricing models using short holding period equity returns are misspecified.

Duration, risk, factors, premium, valuation, returns

Abstract:
Managers, security analysts, investors, and the press rely increasingly on modified definitions of GAAP net income, known by such names as 'operating' and 'pro forma' earnings. We document this phenomenon and discuss competing explanations for the recent rise in the use of such modified earnings numbers and implications for the interpretation of related accounting research. Our results show that over the past 20 years there has been a dramatic increase in the frequency and magnitude of cases where 'GAAP' and 'Street' earnings differ. Further, there is a very strong bias toward the reporting of a Street earnings number that exceeds the GAAP earnings number. We also show that the market response to the Street earnings number has displaced GAAP earnings as a primary determinant of stock prices. Finally, through an analysis of earnings releases, we show that management has taken a proactive role in defining and emphasizing the Street number when communicating to analysts and investors.

Abstract:
Security analysts, investors and the press are increasingly relying on modified definitions of GAAP net income, known by such names as 'operating EPS' and 'pro forma EPS.' These new 'Street' definitions of EPS exclude items such as 'non-recurring' and 'non-cash' charges. Moreover, this move to Street definitions of EPS has been accompanied by a dramatic increase in the proportion of corporate expenses that are classified as excluded items. The outcome has been a large and growing gap between the GAAP EPS that is reported in firms' financial statements and the Street EPS that is tracked by analysts and priced by investors. This increasing use of 'Street' definitions of earnings represents a subtle form of earnings management and has important implications for both academics and practitioners.

Earnings, analyst forecasts, earnings management, managerial discretion

Abstract:
Following Sloan (1996), numerous studies document that the accrual component of earnings is less persistent than the cash flow component of earnings. Disagreement exists, however, as to the explanation for this result. One stream of literature follows Sloan's lead in arguing that this result is attributable to accounting distortions (Xie, 2001; Dechow and Dichev, 2002; Richardson et al., 2005). A second stream of literature argues that this result is attributable to a more general growth effect and that growth-related factors such as diminishing returns to new investment explain the lower persistence of accruals (e.g., Fairfield, Whisenant and Yohn, 2003a; Cooper, Gulen and Schill, 2005). We provide new evidence indicating that temporary accounting distortions are a significant contributing factor to the lower persistence of the accrual component of earnings. Our evidence indicates that the lower persistence of accruals extends to accruals that are unrelated to sales growth and that extreme accruals are systematically associated with alleged cases of earnings manipulation.

accruals, earnings management, conservative accounting, aggressive accounting

Abstract:
Following Sloan (1996), numerous studies show that the accrual component of earnings is less persistent than the cash flow component of earnings. Disagreement exists, however, as to the explanation for this result. Xie (2001) attributes the result to managerial discretion. Fairfield et al. (2003a) argue that it is a special case of a more general growth anomaly that is attributable to the widespread use of conservative accounting methods and/or diminishing marginal returns to new investment. Finally, Dechow and Dichev (2002) and Richardson et al. (2004) argue that it is attributable to transitory accrual estimation error. In this paper, we provide theory and evidence to discriminate between these alternative explanations. Our analysis suggests that transitory accrual estimation error provides the most consistent explanation for the lower persistence of the accrual component of earnings. Further, our results suggest the accrual estimation error is at least partially attributable to managerial discretion.

Accruals, earnings management, conservative accounting, aggressive accounting

Abstract:
Prior research shows that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component of earnings. We investigate whether the persistence of the cash component is influenced by management's decision to retain or distribute cash flows. We find that when firms retain the cash flows, the cash component has low persistence almost identical to that of accruals. Only when the cash flows are distributed to equity holders does the cash component have high persistence. We investigate whether investors understand the differential implications of each use of cash flows for future earnings. Inconsistent with a naïve fixation on earnings, we find that investors correctly price cash flows relating to equity and debt distributions. However, we find that retained cash flows are mispriced in a similar manner to accruals. Our results are consistent with a combination of investors misunderstanding diminishing marginal returns to new investments and/or over-investment. Our results also suggest that discounted free cash flows valuation models should explicitly forecast retained cash flows.

Accruals, free cash flow, capital markets, earnings persistence

Abstract:
We analyze the relation between corporate financing activities and sell-side analysts' investment research. We document pervasive evidence of overoptimism in sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts, stock recommendations and target prices that is systematically related to corporate financing activities. Overoptimism is greatest for firms issuing equity and debt and least for firms repurchasing equity and debt. Our evidence is consistent with allegations that sell-side analysts routinely manipulate their investment advice in response to investment banking pressures in order to temporarily inflate stock prices around securities issuances.

External Financing, Sell-side Analysts, Capital Markets, Market Efficiency

Abstract:
We evaluate the role of sell-side analysts' long-term earnings growth forecasts in the pricing of common equity offerings. We find that, in general, sell-side analysts' long-term growth forecasts are systematically overly optimistic around equity offerings and that analysts employed by the lead managers of the offerings make the most optimistic growth forecasts. Additionally, we find a positive relation between the fees paid to the affiliated analysts' employers and the level of the affiliated analysts' growth forecasts. We also document that the post-offering under performance is most pronounced for firms with the highest growth forecasts made by affiliated analysts. Finally, we demonstrate that the post-offering under performance disappears once we control for the over optimism in earnings growth expectations. Thus, the evidence presented in this paper is consistent with the 'equity issue puzzle' arising from overly optimistic earnings growth expectations held at the time of the offerings.

Abstract:
We analyze the relation between investor recognition and stock returns. Consistent with Merton's (1987) theoretical analysis, we show that (i) contemporaneous stock returns are positively related to changes in investor recognition, (ii) future stock returns are negatively related to changes in investor recognition, (iii) the above relations are stronger for stocks with greater idiosyncratic risk and (iv) corporate investment and financing activities are both positively related to changes in investor recognition. Our results indicate that investor recognition is an important determinant of both stock returns and real corporate activity.

Investor Recognition, Stock Returns, Asset Pricing

Abstract:
Numerous studies have documented that the most recent annual change in net operating assets is negatively related to future stock returns. In recent work, Hirshleifer, Hou, Teoh and Zhang (2004) show that the level of net operating assets scaled by the previous year's total assets is also negatively related to future returns. They argue that their levels variable is superior to the change variable used in prior research because it picks up cumulative past changes, rather than just the most recent annual change. We point out that deflation of a level by a lagged level produces a change. As such, their level variable is similar to the change variable used in prior research, and their claim that it picks up cumulative past changes in net operating assets is misleading.

accounting information, balance sheet, market efficiency

Abstract:
We develop a comprehensive and parsimonious measure of corporate financing activities and document a negative relation between this measure and both future stock returns and future profitability. The economic and statistical significance of the results using our comprehensive measure of external financing is stronger than in previous research focusing on individual categories of corporate financing activities. To discriminate between risk versus misvaluation as explanations for this relation, we analyze the association between our measure of external financing and sell-side analysts' forecasts. Consistent with the misvaluation explanation, we find that our measure of external financing is positively related to overoptimism in sell-side analysts' forecasts.

Financing, Sell-side analysts, Capital markets, Market efficiency

Abstract:
An inherent property of accrual accounting is that accrual estimation errors must reverse. To the extent that extreme accruals are attributable to estimation errors, extreme accruals should be followed by extreme accrual reversals. We show that extreme accruals are followed by a disproportionately high frequency of extreme reversals. We also show that the predictable earnings changes and stock returns following extreme accruals (see Sloan, 1996) are explained by extreme accrual reversals. Finally, using a hand-collected sample of inventory write-downs, we provide direct evidence that the extreme reversals following extreme positive inventory accruals represent the reversal of estimation errors.

Accruals, Accrual Reversals, Earnings, Stock Returns, Inventory

Abstract:
Duration is an important and well-established risk characteristic for fixed income securities. We use recent developments in financial statement analysis research to construct a measure of duration for equity securities. We find that the standard empirical predictions and results for fixed income securities extend to equity securities. We show that stock price volatility and stock beta are both positively correlated with equity duration. Moreover, estimates of common shocks to expected equity returns extracted using our measure of equity duration capture a strong common factor in stock returns. Additional analysis shows that the book-to-market ratio provides a crude measure of equity duration and that our more refined measure of equity duration subsumes the Fama and French (1993) book-to-market factor in stock returns. Our research shows how structured financial statement analysis can be used to construct superior measures of equity security risk.

Duration, asset pricing, risk, financial statement analysis

Abstract:
Accounting for employee stock options (ESOs) is controversial, with many arguing that it has substantial economic consequences. Such arguments rely on the assumption that one or more interested parties fixate on accounting numbers and fail to understand the real costs and benefits of ESOs. We review the various accounting issues and economic consequence arguments created by ESOs. We conclude that the accounting should facilitate a clear and consistent understanding of the costs of doing business, and that expensing ESOs best achieves this objective.

Accounting for Employee Stock Options, Stock Option Expense, Diluted Earnings Per Share

Abstract:
Existing research indicates that firms with high accruals are more likely to experience future earnings problems, but that investors' expectations, as reflected in stock prices, do not appear to anticipate these problems. In this paper, we directly examine the published opinions of two types of professional investor intermediaries to see if they provide investors with information concerning the future earnings problems experienced by firms with high accruals. First, we examine the earnings forecasts of sell-side analysts. We show that analysts' earnings forecasts do not incorporate the predictable future earnings declines associated with high accruals. Second, we examine the behavior of independent auditors. We find no evidence that auditors signal the higher likelihood of GAAP violations associated with high accruals through either their audit opinions or through auditor changes. Overall, our evidence indicates that analysts and auditors do not alert investors to the future earnings problems associated with high accruals, thus corroborating previous findings that investors do not appear to anticipate these problems.

Accruals, Analysts, Auditors, Capital markets

Abstract:
This paper evaluates alternative models for detecting earnings management. The paper restricts itself to models that assume the construct being managed is discretionary accruals, since such models are commonly used in the extant accounting literature. Existing models range from simple models in which discretionary accruals are measured as total accruals, to more sophisticated models that separate total accruals into a discretionary and a non-discretionary component. Prior to this paper, there had been no systematic evidence bearing on the relative performance of these alternative models at detecting earnings management. This paper evaluates the relative performance of the competing models by comparing the specification and power of commonly used test statistics across the measures of discretionary accruals generated by each model. The specification of the test statistics is evaluated by examining the frequency with which they generate type I errors for a random sample of firm-years and for samples of firm-years with extreme financial performance. We focus on samples with extreme financial performance because the stimuli investigated in previous research are frequently correlated with financial performance. The first sample of firms are targeted by the Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly overstating annual earnings and the second sample is created by artificially introducing earnings management into a random sample of firms.

Abstract:
This paper investigates the motivations for managers' decisions to overstate earnings and examines the consequences of such decisions. We examine firms subject to enforcement actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission for having violated the financial reporting requirements of the securities laws. In addition to considering the traditional bonus and debt hypotheses as motivations for earnings management, we also investigate the hypothesis that earnings management is systematically related to firms' demands for external financing. We argue that by employing aggressive accounting policies, firms temporarily inflate their market values and temporarily reduce their costs of capital. Thus, managers of firms with high current demands for external financing have incentives to increase reported earnings. Further, we argue that aggressive reporting is more likely to occur in firms with poor governance structures. The empirical evidence supports our predictions. Relative to a matched control sample, aggressive reporters are in greater need of external financing and have poor governance structures. They have fewer outsiders on their boards of directors; are more likely to have their chief executive officers be chairmen of their boards; are less likely to have audit committees; and are less likely to have large outside blockholders. We also investigate the consequences of aggressive reporting. When management are identified as aggressive reporters, their firms' stock prices fall and they face less liquid markets for their securities and higher costs of capital.

Abstract:
Our examination of the cross-section of expected returns reveals economically and statistically significant compensation (about 6 to 9% per annum) for beta risk when betas are estimated from time-series regressions of annual portfolio returns on the annual return on the equal-weighted market index. The relation between book-to-market equity and returns is weaker than that in Fama and French (1992a). We conjecture that book-to-market results using COMPUSTAT data are affected by a selection bias and provide indirect evidence.

Abstract:
We provide evidence that the auto-regressive structure of seasonally differenced quarterly earnings is consistent with the requirements of the integral approach to interim reporting. In particular, we show that the auto-regressive coefficients for standardized seasonally differenced quarterly earnings are larger when the quarters employed in the auto-regressions belong to the same fiscal year than when they belong to different fiscal years. We then show that the signs and magnitudes of abnormal stock returns following earnings announcements are systematically related to these differences in the auto-regressive structure of seasonally differenced quarterly earnings. Specifically, stock returns act as if investors underestimate the larger auto-regressive coefficients between quarters in the same fiscal year. Thus, we corroborate and extend the Bernard and Thomas (1990) hypothesis that stock prices fail to reflect the extent to which quarterly earnings series differ from a seasonal random walk.

Abstract:
What does it mean to assert that the CAPM is "dead?" Like Fama and French (1995), we focus on the practical issue of whether betas defined with respect to commonly-employed market proxies provide useful information about expected returns. The possibility that a more comprehensive market index might yield different results is recognized, but not pursued here. We present evidence on the ability of beta and size to explain cross-sectional variation in average returns for 100 portfolios ranked on size and then beta. In particular, the extent to which size is incrementally helpful in explaining average portfolio returns is assessed. We find that, the incremental benefit of size, given beta, while statistically significant, is economically small in estimating expected portfolio returns. We review the evidence indicating that the book-to-market (B/M) effect documented in previous research is exaggerated due to selection biases. Survivor biases are unlikely in large firm samples. Among these firms, the B/M effect is considerably smaller than that observed by Fama and French (1992), consistent with survivor/selection biases leading to an overstated B/M effect. The B/M effect is correlated with past returns, firm size, bid-ask spreads and, possibly, shifts in the investment opportunity set. Therefore, B/M might proxy for rationally priced factors not modeled in the basic CAPM, and average returns will likely continue to be related to B/M in future, although less strongly than in the historical relation.

Abstract:
This paper investigates whether stock prices reflect information about future earnings contained in the accrual and cash flow components of current earnings. The extent to which current earnings performance persists into the future is shown to depend on the relative magnitudes of the cash and accrual components of current earnings. However, stock prices are found to act as if investors "fixate" on earnings, failing to fully reflect information in the accrual and cash flow components of current earnings until it impacts future earnings.

Abstract:
This study investigates firms subject to accounting enforcement actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for alleged violations of GAAP. We investigate: (i) the extent to which the alleged earnings manipulations can be explained by extant earnings management hypotheses; (ii) the relation between the earnings manipulations and weaknesses in the firms' internal governance structures; and (iii) the capital market consequences experienced by the firms when the alleged earnings manipulations are made public. We find that an important motivation for earnings manipulation is the desire to attract external financing at low cost. We show that this motivation remains significant after controlling for contracting motives proposed in the academic literature. We also find that firms manipulating earnings are: (i) more likely to have boards of directors dominated by management; (ii) more likely to have a CEO who simultaneously serves as Chairman of the Board; (iii) more likely to have a CEO who is also the firm's founder; (iv) less likely to have an audit committee; and (v) less likely to have an outside blockholder. Finally, we document that firms manipulating earnings experience significant increases in their costs of capital when the manipulations are made public.

Abstract:
We assess earnings lack of timeliness and value- irrelevant noise in earnings as explanations for the weak contemporaneous return-earnings association. Earnings lack timeliness because objectivity, verifiability, and conservatism conventions underlie the accounting measurement process. Noise in earnings is uncorrelated with returns in all periods. It likely gets introduced when estimates of future cash flows that differ from the markets estimates are included in earnings determined by accounting rules. Consistent with earnings lacking timeliness, we find current and future return earnings adjusted for expectational errors explain roughly 3-6 times as much of the annual return variation than current earnings alone.

Abstract:
This paper evaluates the implications of nondiscretionary accruals for earnings management and market-based accounting research. We develop a simple model in which earnings management is absent and nondiscretionary accruals perform their intended function of insulating earnings from non-cash working capital shocks. Our analysis indicates that existing techniques for measuring earnings management are likely to misclassify some nondiscretionary accruals as discretionary accruals. Further, we show that certain 'significant' results in existing earnings management research are consistent with the misclassification of nondiscretionary accruals. Finally, we provide a framework for understanding the pricing of cash flow and nondiscretionary accrual components of earnings.

Abstract:
This paper examines the ability of hypotheses based on naive investor expectations to explain the higher returns to contrarian investment strategies. Inconsistent with Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1995), we find no systematic evidence that stock prices naively reflect extrapolation of past trends in earnings and sales growth. Consistent with Bauman and Dowen (1988) and La Porta (1994), we find that stock prices appear to naively reflect analysts' biased forecasts of future earnings growth. Further, we show that naive reliance on analysts' forecasts of future earnings growth can explain over half the higher returns to contrarian investment strategies.

Abstract:
This study investigates the economic consequences of the FASB's 1993 Exposure Draft requiring the expensing of employee stock options. We examine (i) a sample of firms in industries that are intensive users of employee stock options; (ii) a sample of firms in an emerging 'high-tech' industry (biotechnology); and (iii) a sample of firms submitting comment letters to the FASB opposing the expensing of employee stock options. Our results indicate that investors do not share corporate America's concerns that expensing employee stock options would have negative economic consequences. Additional tests show that corporate America's opposition to expensing is concentrated in firms that use options extensively for top executives rather than in firms with high overall levels of option usage.