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Abstract:

Emerging markets, Stock markets, Investment, Financial crisis

Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the degree of herding and momentum trading among emerging market mutual funds. We use a novel database containing the country holdings of hundreds of individual funds on a monthly basis for the period 1996-2000. Overall, there is substantial heterogeneity in the behavior of funds. We find that the degree of herding computed as in Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny (1992) is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more prevalent among open-end funds than among closed-end funds. We also find some evidence that funds follow momentum strategies. Neither momentum nor herding behavior are more accentuated during crises than during tranquil times.

Abstract:
This paper explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to March 1999. An examination of individual crises shows that, on average, funds withdrew money one month prior to the events. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among open-ended funds than among closed-end funds, but not more prevalent during crises than during tranquil times. Funds tend to follow momentum strategies, selling past losers and buying past winners, but their overall behavior is more complex than often suggested.

Mutual Funds, Contagion, Emerging Markets, Foreign Portfolio Investment, Herding, Financial Crises

Abstract:
We analyze the costs and benefits of full dollarization compared to its closest alternative, a currency board, quantifying for Argentina where possible. Potential advantages include lower borrowing costs and deeper integration into world markets. One cost is the transfer of seigniorage to the United States. The country may also lose the "exit option" to devalue in the face of major shocks. Similarly, even a country with a currency board may lose some ability to act as lender of last resort to the banking system. We review how various country characteristics influence the balance of arguments.

dollarization, exchange rate regimes, currency crises, monetary union

Abstract:
The "traditional structural approach" to the determination of real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the marked and sustained weakness in commodity prices during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper extends that framework in two important directions: First, it incorporates commodity supply in the analysis, capturing the impact on prices of the sharp increase in commodity exports of developing countries during the debt crisis of the 1980s. Second, we take a broader view of "world" demand that extends beyond the industrial countries and includes output developments in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). The empirical results support these extensions, as both the fit of the model improves substantially and, more importantly, its ability to forecast increases markedly.

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We test the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in a cross-country regression framework, utilizing data on FDI flows from industrial countries to 69 developing countries over the last two decades. Our results suggest that FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of technology, contributing relatively more to growth than domestic investment. However, the higher productivity of FDI holds only when the host country has a minimum threshold stock of human capital. In addition, FDI has the effect of increasing total investment in the economy more than one for one, which suggests the predominance of complementarity effects with domestic firms.

Abstract:
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.

Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis

Abstract:
This paper evaluates the effect of foreign debt on investment in a heavily-indebted country, using numerical simulations of a simple rational expectations growth model. Two particular effects are distinguished. First, the effect due to "debt overhang" of pas t accumulated debts; and second, the effect of "credit rationing" or inability to obtain new financing. The results from the simulations indicate the credit rationing may be a powerful disincentive to investment. This suggests that in order to maximize the impact on productive investment, debt reduction plans need to be accompanied by additional foreign lending.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the credit crunch following the recent financial crisis in Korea. Using enterprise-level data, we find that there were big differences in the magnitude of the credit contraction across different types of firms. In particular, chaebol (conglomerate)-affiliated firms appeared to have lost the preferential access to credit they enjoyed in the pre-crisis period, and credit appears to have been reallocated in favor of more efficient firms. This suggests that the credit crunch suffered by certain sectors can be attributed to the adjustment by banks and enterprises to the restructuring of the financial sector, rather than to tight monetary policy or an external credit constraint.

Korea, credit crunch, financial crisis

Abstract:
Although credit rating agencies have gradually moved away from a policy of never rating a private borrower above the sovereign (the sovereign ceiling) it appears that sovereign ratings remain a significant determinant of the credit rating assigned to corporations. We examine this link using data for advanced and emerging economies over the past decade and conclude that the sovereign ratings have a significant and robust effect on private ratings even after controlling for country specific macroeconomic conditions and firm-level performance indicators. This suggests that public debt management affects the private sector through a channel that had not been previously recognized.

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This paper evaluates empirically four types of cost that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.

Sovereign debt, Public debt, External debt, Financial risk, Financial crisis, Political economy, International trade, Bankruptcy

Abstract:
While there is a substantial body of literature on the effects of "debt overhang" on investment in heavily-indebted countries, there is surprisingly little empirical work available on this subject. This paper tests the hypothesis that the stock of foreign debt acts as a disincentive to private investment in the specific case of the Philippines. The empirical estimates provide support for this hypothesis, particularly after 1982. The estimates indicate that a $1.3 billion debt reduction (such as the one completed through the buyback operation in early 1990) would increase investment demand by something between one half and two percentage points of GNP.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes some of the structural problems associated with the Korean financial sector, and investigates whether the financial system has allocated credit in an efficient way over the past three decades. Using data for 32 manufacturing sectors, we find no evidence that credit flows were directed to the relatively more profitable sectors, either before or after the financial reforms. We also find that the flow of credits did not contribute to improve the economic performance of the favored industries over time.

Credit Allocation, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets

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Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has one of the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability of Belize's public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize's debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US $120 million per year.

Insurance, Belize, Public finance, Debt

Abstract:
This paper compares the impact of shocks to U.S. interest rates and emerging market bond spreads on domestic interest rates and exchange rates across several emerging market economies with different exchange rate regimes. Consistent with conventional priors, the results indicate that interest rates in Hong Kong react much more to U.S. interest rate shocks and shocks to international risk premia than interest rates in Singapore. The results are less clearcut in the comparison of Argentina and Mexico: while interest rates (and the exchange rate) in Mexico seem to react less to U.S. interest rate shocks, they react about the same to bond spread shocks, in addition to a significant impact on the exchange rate.

Monetary policy, exchange rate regime, interest rates, risk premium

Abstract:
Even modest investment rates may achieve satisfactory rates of growth in the reforming economies of Eastern Europe because their relative capital scarcity implies high rates of productivity for capital. The most serious obstacle to private investment is uncertainty about the reform process, which can potentially rule out all but the most profitable projects. This problem sharply increases the payoff from accelerating the structural reform process. Regarding savings, critical aspects are the changes in methods of financing resulting from economic reform, and the availability of foreign savings, both in the form of loans and foreign direct investment.

Abstract:
We examine the implications of high degrees of dollarization for the choice of exchange rate regime and the information content of various monetary aggregates in developing countries. We conclude that a high degree of currency substitution argues for a more fixed exchange rate regime, while asset substitution may imply that either more rigid or more flexible regimes may be appropriate. We also ask whether the most informative monetary aggregates include dollar assets. Based on an analysis of five countries, we conclude inter alia that broader aggregates that include dollar assets perform better than those that do not.

Dollarization, currency substitution, exchange rates, financial programming, money demand

Abstract:
We examine the implications of high degrees of dollarization for the choice of exchange rate regime and the information content of various monetary aggregates in developing countries. We conclude that a high degree of currency substitution argues for a more fixed exchange rate regime, while asset substitution may imply that either more rigid or more flexible regimes may be appropriate. We also ask whether the most informative monetary aggregates include dollar assets. Based on an analysis of five countries, we conclude inter alia that broader aggregates that include dollar assets perform better than those that do not.

Dollarization, currency substitution, exchange rates, financial programming, money demand

Abstract:
This paper tests alternative assumptions concerning the time series behavior of foreign exchange rates. Data for about 20,000 individual trades on foreign exchange options for dollar exchange rates against six major currencies carried out from February 1983 to June 1985 are analyzed. The tests carried out suggest that, judging from the predictions of a model of options prices based on the assumption that exchange rates follow a diffusion process, market participants paid too high a price for call options that would have been profitable only if the dollar depreciated substantially within a short time period. An alternative model which allows for discrete jumps in exchange rates is found to be more consistent with the data.

Abstract:
This paper uses a difference-in-difference methodology similar to the one originally proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998) to test whether defaulting hurts the more export-oriented industries. Strong support for this hypothesis was found, but contrary to the findings of previous studies, our estimations suggest that the effect of defaults is short-lived.

Sovereign Debt, Default, International Trade, Difference in Difference, Exports

Abstract:
This paper discusses several proposals for a wholesale privatization of public enterprises in Eastern Europe. These proposals include the distribution of "vouchers" to private citizens as well as the use of mutual funds, privatization companies and other forms of financial intermediaries. The paper analyzes the implications for economic efficiency of the different forms of ownership and control that would emerge from the proposals as well as their main macroeconomic consequences.

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This paper considers the problem of allocation of investment for a debtor country that faces a ceiling on the amount of foreign debt it can accumulate. It shows that it is optimal for the debtor country to create a more open economy by favoring investment in the export sector over investment in the import-competing sector. The reason is that a more open economy is more sensitive to trade sanctions and therefore more creditworthy in international markets. Because international creditworthiness is basically an externality, there is a role for policy to provide higher returns to export producing activities.

Abstract:
This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. The introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path. Second, by reducing the country's need to hold foreign assets as precautionary savings (or by improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income). Under plausibly calibrated parameters, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.

Commodities, Commodity price fluctuations, Cross country analysis, Developing countries, Economic models, Export earnings, Export markets, Financial instruments, Financial risk, Hedge funds, International trade, Risk management

Abstract:
We assess monetary regime options for Latin American countries. The costs of a common currency are likely to outweigh its benefits, as those countries face diverse economic shocks, do not trade much with each other, and are affected by common international financial shocks only to the same extent as the average pair of emerging markets. Unilateral dollarization would be desirable only for those countries where there are strong links to the U.S. economy, the credibility of the monetary authorities is irreversibly lost, and there is keen demand for dollar-denominated financial assets. Finally, some countries in the region seem to be good candidates for meaningful and useful floating.

exchange rate regimes, currency union, dollarization

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the Czechoslovak reform program which was launched on January 1, 1991. Under this program, Czechoslovakia has taken decisive steps to establish a market economy, while achieving price stability and a viable external position through restrictive financial policies. But there has been a sharp decline in output. The eventual output recovery is predicated on completing structural market reforms, such as the development of financial markets and the safeguard of their stability, privatization of large enterprises, minimizing government interference with economic signals, and the imposition of the "hard" budget constraint.

Abstract:
This paper develops a technique to value guarantees on interest payments on developing-country debt, and provides some preliminary estimates of the cost of such guarantees. The cost of interest payment guarantees is not directly observable because a guarantee is a contingent obligation that becomes effective only if the debtor fails to make a certain payment. The strategy adopted in this paper is to estimate the market price that an interest payment guarantee would have if such a contract existed and were traded in financial markets. Using results from option pricing theory it is possible to calculate the price that an "interest guarantee contract" would carry in financial markets on the basis of the price of developing-country debt in secondary markets.

Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to identify conditions under which renewed international lending will benefit both the developed and the developing countries. Our analysis will evaluate how the presence of terms of trade adjustment and distorted credit markets affect the conditions for the existence of beneficial lending. We demonstrate that in the presence of endogenous terms of trade adjustment, there are cases in which a competitive international banking system may not revitalize lending for investment purposes, even if such renewed lending is socially desirable. Renewed lending may require the appropriate conditionally, and the presence of endogenous terms of trade adjustment puts greater weight on investment conditionality.

Abstract:
A consistent set of disaggregated industrial output data for four Eastern European countries is examined in order to determine the extent to which structural adjustment has taken place since the initiation of market-oriented reform. The latter created a massive relative price shock whose effects on the structure of the industrial sectors of these economies is shown to have been relatively small, at least one to two years after the reforms. An implication is that one argument in favor of more gradualist reform--based on the premise that more gradualism implies a smaller output cost in the short run--is questionable. By and large in these economies, the output cost associated with the removal of relative price distortions may still have to be faced.

Abstract:
This paper seeks to revive the case for countries to insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing bonds indexed to the rate of growth of GDP. We show that GDP-indexed bonds could provide substantial benefits in reducing the likelihood of default crises and allowing countries to avoid pro-cyclical fiscal policies. We simulate the effects of GDP-indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could substantially reduce the likelihood of debt/GDP paths becoming explosive. The insurance premium would likely be small, because cross-country comovement of GDP growth rates is low and cross-country GDP growth risk is, thus, largely diversifiable for an investor holding a portfolio of GDP-indexed bonds. Potential obstacles to the emergence of a market for these bonds include the verifiability of GDP data, the trade-off between insurance and moral hazard, and the need for liquidity. Theory and past experience suggest that financial innovation often requires official intervention and its timing and form are difficult to predict. We discuss institutional fixes and suggest an approach for attempting to start up a market.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the strategic role of investment from a debtor country`s perspective. The framework is one in which, if the debtor country is unable to meet debt obligations, a bargaining regime determines the amount of debt repayment. In the context of a two-country real trade model, debt repayment is equal to the trade surplus of the debtor. The outcome of the bargaining game will therefore be dependent (among other things) on the level of production in the debtor country. In this framework, the paper shows that productive investment may increase or decrease the bargaining power of the debtor country. This ambiguity appears to be fairly robust.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. We show that the introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path. Second, by reducing the country's need to hold foreign assets as precautionary savings (or by improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income). Under plausibly calibrated parameters, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.

commodity exports, default, futures, hedging, international reserves, options, precautionary savings

Abstract:
This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. We show that the introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path. Second, by reducing the country's need to hold foreign assets as precautionary savings (or by improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income). Under plausibly calibrated parameters, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
Recent episodes of capital market volatility and contagion have brought up many questions about the behavior of international investors. We address some of these questions, exploring the behavior of different types of emerging market equity funds with monthly data on individual country holdings. Consistent with the notion that fund behavior can largely be traced to redemptions by individual investors, we find that open-end funds withdraw more from vulnerable countries around crises than their closed-end counterparts. We show that open-end funds' flows Granger-cause closed-end funds investments, possibly because the closed-end funds are forced to follow their more fickle open-end counterparts. Single-country fund flows precede those of global funds, suggesting an informational advantage of the former. The evidence does not support the notion that small funds are at a disadvantage in gathering country information.

Emerging markets, crises, contagion, investor behavior

Abstract:
What are the relative roles of macroeconomic variables, structural policies, and initial conditions in explaining the time path of output in transition and the large observed differences in output performance across transition economics? Using a sample of 26 countries, this paper follows a general-to-specific modeling approach that allows for differential effects of policies and initial conditions on the private and state sectors and for time-dependent effects of initial conditions. While showing some fragility to model specification, the results point to the preeminence of structural reforms over both initial conditions and macroeconomic variables in explaining cross-country differences in performance and the timing of the recovery.

transition economies, growth, output decline, recovery, structural reforms