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Abstract:
Recent advances in the theory of credit risk allow the use of standard term structure machinery for default risk modeling and estimation. The empirical literature in this area often interprets the drift adjustments of the default intensity's diffusion state variables as the only default risk premium. We show that this interpretation implies a restriction on the form of possible default risk premia, which can be justified through exact and approximate notions of "diversifiable default risk." The equivalence between the empirical and martingale default intensities that follows from diversifiable default risk greatly facilitates the pricing and management of credit risk. We emphasize that this is not an equivalence in distribution, and illustrate its importance using credit spread dynamics estimated in Duffee (1999). We also argue that the assumption of diversifiability is implicitly used in certain existing models of mortgage-backed securities.

Abstract:
Recent advances in the theory of credit risk allow the use of standard term structure machinery for default risk modeling and estimation. The empirical literature in this area often interprets the drift adjustments of the default intensity's diffusion state variables as the only default risk premium. We show that this interpretation implies a restriction on the form of possible default risk premia, which can be justified through exact and approximate notions of ``diversifiable default risk.'' The equivalence between the empirical and martingale default intensities that follows from diversifiable default risk greatly facilitates the pricing and management of credit risk. We emphasize that this is not an equivalence in distribution, and illustrate its importance using credit spread dynamics estimated in Duffee (1999). We also argue that the assumption of diversifiability is implicitly used in certain existing models of mortgage-backed securities.

Abstract:
We conduct an analysis of the risk and return characteristics of a number of widely used fixed income arbitrage strategies. We find that the strategies requiring more "intellectual capital" to implement tend to produce significant alphas after controlling for bond and equity market risk factors. These positive alphas remain significant even after taking into account typical hedge fund fees. In contrast with other hedge fund strategies, many of the fixed income arbitrage strategies produce positively skewed returns. These results suggest that there may be more economic substance to fixed income arbitrage than simply "picking up nickels in front of a steamroller."

Abstract:
This paper examines the risk and return of the so-called capital structure arbitrage, which exploits the mispricing between a company's debt and equity. Specifically, a structural model connects a company's equity price with its credit default swap (CDS) spread. Based on the deviation of CDS market spreads from their theoretical counterparts, a convergence-type trading strategy is proposed and analyzed using 135,759 daily CDS spreads on 261 obligors. At the level of individual trades, the risk of the strategy arises when the arbitrageur shorts CDS and the market spread subsequently skyrockets, forcing the arbitrageur into early liquidation and engendering large losses. An equally-weighted portfolio of all trades produces Sharpe ratios similar to those of other fixed-income arbitrage strategies and hedge fund industry benchmarks. However, the monthly excess returns on this portfolio are not significantly correlated with either equity or bond market factors.

Abstract:
Motivated by recent financial crises in East Asia and the U.S. where the downfall of a small number of firms had an economy-wide impact, this paper generalizes existing reduced-form models to include default intensities dependent on the default of a counterparty. In this model, firms have correlated defaults due not only to an exposure to common risk factors, but also to firm-specific risks that are termed ``counterparty risks.'' Numerical examples illustrate the effect of counterparty risk on the pricing of defaultable bonds and credit derivatives such as default swaps.

Abstract:
We explore the connection between the market for single-name credit default swaps (CDS) and the market for individual stock options. We find that the contemporaneous link between CDS spreads and option-implied volatilities is stronger among firms with lower credit ratings, higher CDS spread volatilities, and more actively traded options. Among such firms, the changes in both CDS spreads and implied volatilities forecast future stock returns. Although the changes in implied volatility consistently forecast future CDS spread changes, the reverse does not hold. We interpret these findings as broadly consistent with informed traders preferentially using the options market, and to some extent the CDS market, to exploit their information advantage. Although implied volatility dominates historical volatility in forecasting the future realized volatility on individual stocks, the volatility risk premium embedded in option prices also plays a crucial role in explaining CDS spreads. Our results are robust under a pricing analysis using a structural credit risk model. They are also unaffected by historical volatilities estimated at short or long horizons.

Credit default swap spread, option-implied volatility, volatility risk premium, informed trading

Abstract:
Reduced-form models have proven to be a useful tool for analyzing the dynamics of credit spreads. However, some have recently questioned their ability to match the level of empirical default correlation. The key concern appears to be the assumption that defaults are independent conditional on the state variables driving the default intensity. In this paper, I use a "thought experiment" as well as numerical examples calibrated to recent studies to show that the model-implied default correlation can be quite sensitive to the common factor structure imposed on the default intensity. Therefore, the "inability" of reduced-form models to generate sufficient default correlation has more to do with a restrictive common factor structure than the assumption of conditional independence.

Abstract:
Theory predicts that the quality of a firm's information disclosure can affect the term structure of its corporate bond yield spreads. Using cross-sectional regression and Nelson-Siegel yield curve estimation, I find that firms with higher AIMR disclosure rankings tend to have lower credit spreads. Moreover, this ``transparency spread'' is especially large among short-term bonds. These findings are consistent with the theory of discretionary disclosure as well as the incomplete accounting information model of Duffie and Lando (2001). The presence of a sizable short-term transparency spread can attenuate some of the empirical problems associated with structural credit risk models.

Abstract:
The existing literature on credit risk focuses on fitting bond prices and explaining yield spreads, while largely skirting the issue of expected return. The unique feature of credit risk, however, implies that the expected return on defaultable bonds is not synonymous with the (pre-default) price process as in the case of default-free bonds. In this paper, the expected return on defaultable bonds is examined within the framework of intensity-based credit risk models. It is shown that a defaultable bond's instantaneous expected return can be decomposed into three parts: a default-free component, a compensation for variations in default risk, and a compensation for investors' risk-aversion towards the default event. The methodology for estimating these components as well as the practical difficulties one might encounter in this estimation are discussed. Easily extended to include a non-default component, this decomposition can enrich our understanding of many empirical observations concerning credit risk.

Abstract:
This paper presents an intensity-based model of correlated defaults with application to the valuation of defaultable securities. The model assumes that the intensities of the default times are driven by common factors as well as other defaults in the system. A recursive procedure called the "total hazard construction" is used to generate default times with a broad class of correlation structures. This approach is compared to standard reduced-form models based on conditional independence as well as alternative approaches involving copula functions. Examples are given for the pricing of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps of the regular and basket type.

Abstract:
This paper presents an intensity-based model of correlated defaults with application to the valuation of defaultable securities. The model assumes that the intensities of the default times are driven by common factors as well as other defaults in the system. A recursive procedure called the total hazard construction is used to generate default times with a broad class of correlation structures. This approach is compared to standard reduced-form models based on conditional independence as well as alternative approaches involving copula functions. Examples are given for the pricing of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps of the regular and basket type.

Abstract:
This study explores a number of alternative explanations for the relation between credit spreads and governance. These include the overinvestment story in Li (2007), the information quality story of Duffie and Lando (2001) and an information asymmetry hypothesis based on the findings in Ferreira and Laux (2007). First, we find an economically weak negative relation between overinvestment and CDS spreads. This is consistent with Li (2007). Second, we find that credit spreads are increasing in information imprecision, as measured by analyst forecast errors. This is consistent with the notion that poor governance increases firms' disclosure quality and thus decreases credit spreads by the channel suggested in Duffie and Lando (2001). However, neither overinvestment nor information quality appear to explain the relation between governance and credit spreads. Finally, we find that proxies for liquidity in the CDS market are strongly related to CDS spreads. More significantly, we find that in the presence of our CDS market liquidity variables, the G-index has neither an economically nor statistically significant relation to CDS spreads. We argue, based on the findings in Ferreira and Laux (2007), that this consistent with the notion that the increased information production associated with low G-index firms makes bond dealers reluctant to post quotes for these firms, thereby reducing the liquidity of the CDS market and raising the level of the CDS spreads.

Credit Spreads, Information Asymmetry, Corporate Governance

Abstract:
How do bondholders view the existence of an open market for corporate control? Between 1985 and 1991, 30 states in the U.S. enacted business combination (BC) laws, raising the cost of corporate takeovers. Relying on these exogenous events, we estimate the influence of the market for corporate control on the cost of debt. We identify different channels through which an open market for corporate control can benefit or harm bondholders: a reduction in managerial slack or the "quiet life," resulting in higher profitability and firm value; a coinsurance effect, in which firms become less risky after being acquired; and an increasing leverage effect, in which bondholder wealth is expropriated through leverage-increasing takeovers. Consistent with the first two mechanisms, we find that the cost of debt rose after the passage of the BC laws; moreover, it rose sharply for firms in non-competitive industries, and for firms rated speculative-grade. In contrast, there is virtually no effect for firms in competitive industries, or firms rated investment-grade.

Abstract:
Several recent studies present evidence of investor misreaction in the options market. While the interpretation of their results is still controversial, we note that the important question of economic significance has not been fully addressed. We fill in this gap by formulating regression-based tests to identify misreaction and its duration and constructing trading strategies to exploit the empirical patterns of misreaction. Using regular S&P 500 index options and long-dated S&P 500 LEAPS, we find an underreaction that on average dissipates over the course of three trading days and an increasing misreaction that peaks after four consecutive daily variance shocks of the same sign. Option trading strategies based on these findings produce economically significant abnormal returns in the range of one to three percent per day. However, they are not profitable in the presence of transaction costs.