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Abstract:
We analyze with an integrated assessment model of climate change the formation of international environmental agreements (IEAs) by applying the widely used concept of internal & external stability and several modifications of it. We relax the assumptions of a single agreement and open membership rule. It turns out that regional agreements are superior to a single agreement and exclusive is superior to open membership in welfare and ecological terms. Moreover, we show the importance of transfers for successful treaty-making. We relate our results to the design of current and past IEAs as well as to other issues of international policy coordination.

Design of climate treaty protocol, Coalition formation, Non-cooperative game theory

Abstract:
In this paper we present some numerical simulations with the MacGEM model to evaluate the consequences of the recent Marrakesh agreements and the defection of the USA for the Kyoto Protocol. MacGEM is a global marginal abatement cost model for carbon emissions from fossil fuel use based on the GEM-E3-World general equilibrium. Nonparticipation of the USA causes the equilibrium carbon price in Annex B countries to fall by approximately 50% since an important share of permit demand falls out. Carbon sinks enhancement activities enable Parties to fulfil their reduction commitment at lower compliance costs and cause the equilibrium permit price to decrease by 40%. Finally, it is shown that the former Soviet Union and central European countries have substantial monopoly power in the Kyoto carbon permit market. We conclude that the recent accords have eroded completely the Kyoto Protocol's emission targets but that they have the merit to have saved the international climate change negotiation framework.

Environmental Economics, Climate Change, Permit Trade, Kyoto Protocol, Carbon Sinks

Abstract:
In this paper we introduce the CLIMNEG World Simulation (CWS) model for simulating cooperative game theoretic aspects of global climate negotiations. The model is derived from the seminal RICE model by Nordhaus and Yang (1996). We first state the necessary conditions that determine optimal investment and emission abatement paths under alternative cooperation regimes, and then we test empirically with a numerical version of the CWS model whether the cooperative game theoretic "core" property of the transfer scheme advocated by Germain, Toint and Tulkens (1997) holds. Under this transfer scheme no individual country, nor any subset of countries, should have an interest in leaving the international environmental agreement. For the numerical specification of the CWS model used here, we obtain the result that this is indeed the case.

Environmental economics, climate change, burden sharing, simulations, core of cooperative games

Abstract:
We combine the newest concepts o non-cooperative coalition theory with a computable general equilibrium model close to the seminal RICE-model of Nordhaus and Yang (1996) to determine stable coalition structures in a global warming game. We consider three coalition games that allow for the formation of multiple coalitions. The coalition games represent different designs of climate treaty protocols. Counterintuitively, it turns out that treaties based on a unanimous decision rule and exclusive membership lead to superior outcomes than treaties with open membership. We also demonstrate that if coalition formation is not restricted to a single coalition, as this has been done previously in the literature, coalition structures with multiple coalitions will emerge in equilibrium. Most of the regional agreements are superior to single agreements. Moreover, our findings confirmthose derived fromsim pler theoretical models that a cleverly designed transfer scheme can foster cooperation and that fromthe number of participants the success of a treaty cannot be inferred. They also support a conjecture of theory that in the case of greenhouse gases stable coalition structures (partial cooperation) can close the gap between the global optimum (full cooperation) and the Nash equilibrium(no cooperation) by a substantial amount

design of climate treaty protocol, coalition formation, non-cooperative game theory

Abstract:
The literature on international environmental agreements has recognized the role transfers play in encouraging participation in international environmental agreements (IEAs), but the few results achieved so far are overly specific and do not exploit the full potential of transfers for successful treaty-making. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a framework that enables us to study the role of transfers in a more systematic way. We propose a design for transfers using both internal and external financial resources and making 'welfare optimal agreements' self-enforcing. To illustrate the relevance of our transfer scheme for actual treaty-making, we use a well-known integrated assessment model of climate change to show how appropriate transfers may be able to induce almost all countries into signing a self-enforcing climate treaty.

Self-enforcing international environmental agreements, climate policy, transfers, international environmental agreements

Abstract:
Transfers often play a crucial role in encouraging participation in international environmental agreements (IEAs). However, the economic literature on transfers is very limited and results achieved so far do not exploit the full potential of transfers for successful treaty-making. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a framework that enables us to study the role of transfers in a more systematic way. We propose a design for transfers using both internal and external financial resources and making welfare optimal agreements self-enforcing. To illustrate the relevance of our transfer scheme for actual treaty-making, we use a well-known integrated assessment model of climate change to show how appropriate transfers may be able to induce almost all countries into signing a self-enforcing climate treaty.

Self-enforcing international environmental agreements, Climate policy, Transfers

Abstract:
In this paper we test empirically with the Nordhaus and Yang (1996) RICE model the core property of the transfer scheme advocated by Germain, Toint and Tulkens (1997). This scheme is designed to sustain full cooperation in a voluntary international environmental agreement by making all countries at least as well off as they would be by joining coalitions adopting emission abatement policies that maximize their coalition payoff; under the scheme no individual country, nor any subset of countries would have an interest in leaving the international environmental agreement. The simulations show that the transfer scheme yields an allocation in the core of the carbon emission abatement game associated with the RICE model. Finally, we discuss some practical implications of the transfer scheme for current climate negotiations.

Abstract:
We propose a class of sharing schemes for the distribution of the gains from cooperation for coalition games with externalities. In the context of the partition function, it is shown that any member of this class of sharing schemes leads to the same set of stable coalitions in the sense of d'Aspremont et al. (1983). These schemes are "almost ideal" in that they stabilize these coalitions which generate the highest global welfare among the set of "potentially stable coalitions." Our sharing scheme is particularly powerful for economic problems that are characterized by positive externalities from coalition formation and which therefore are likely to suffer from severe free-riding.

Coalition games, Partition function, Externalities, Sharing schemes

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of statistical techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of voluntary policy instruments for waste management. The voluntary character of these instruments implies that latent characteristics, unobserved by the analyst, might influence the participation decision and might lead to biased estimates of the effectiveness of the policy instrument if standard techniques are used. We propose an extension of the Difference-in-Differences estimator to evaluate the effectiveness of voluntary policy instruments. We illustrate the technique by estimating the effectiveness of voluntary cooperation agreements between the Flemish environmental administration and individual municipalities. We focus on agreements which aim at curbing residential solid waste. Using a dataset covering all 308 Flemish municipalities for the period 2000-2005, our results indicate that municipalities subscribing to the agreement reduced their waste level by less than what could be expected on the basis of their own performance prior to subscription and the performance of the non-subscribers. This result might be explained by rising marginal cost of extra residential solid waste reduction policies. In addition, there are indications that subscribing municipalities refrain from additional reduction efforts once the target waste level of the program is achieved.

Residential solid waste, difference-in-differences, voluntary agreements, municipalities, endogeneity bias

Abstract:
We investigate how moral concerns about permit trading affect an endogenous pollution permit trading equilibrium, where governments choose non-cooperatively the amount of permits they allocate to domestic industries. Politicians may feel reluctant to allow permit trading and/or may prefer that abatement is undertaken domestically due to moral concerns. This will have an effect on the initial permit allocations, and, therefore, on global emissions. The impact on global emissions depends on the precise formulation of the moral concerns, but under reasonable assumptions, we show that global emissions may increase. Thus, doing what is perceived as good does not always yield the desired outcome. However, this can be offset by restrictions on permit trading when governments have moral concerns about this trade.

Tradable emission permits, international environmental agreements, non-cooperative game theory, moral motivation, identity

Abstract:
We investigate how moral concerns about permit trading affect an endogenous pollution permit trading equilibrium, where governments choose non-cooperatively the amount of permits they allocate to domestic industries. Politicians may feel reluctant to allow permit trading and/or may prefer that abatement is undertaken domestically due to moral concerns. This will have an effect on the initial permit allocations, and, therefore, on global emissions. The impact on global emissions depends on the precise formulation of the moral concerns, but under reasonable assumptions, we show that global emissions may increase. Thus, doing what is perceived as good does not always yield the desired outcome. However, this can be offset by restrictions on permit trading when governments have moral concerns about this trade.

Tradable emission permits, international environmental agreements, non-cooperative game theory, moral motivation, identity.

Abstract:
Strategic market behavior by permit sellers will harm the European Union as the EU as a whole is expected to become a large net buyer of permits in a follow-up agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In this paper we explore how the EU could benefit from making permit trade agreements with non-EU countries. These trade agreements involve a minimum permit sales requirement complemented by a financial transfer from the EU to the other contract party. Such agreements enable the EU to act strategically in the permit market on behalf of its member states, although each member state is assumed to behave as a price taker in the permit market. Using a stylized numerical simulation model we show that an appropriately designed permit trade agreement between the EU and China can cut EU’s total compliance cost significantly. This result is robust for a wide range of parameterizations of the simulation model.

emissions permit, post-Kyoto climate agreement, strategic permit trade