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Abstract:
We propose a theory based on investor overconfidence and biased self-attribution to explain several of the securities returns patterns that seem anomalous from the perspective of efficient markets with rational investors. The theory is based on two premises derived from evidence in psychological studies. The first is that individuals are overconfident about their ability to evaluate securities, in the sense that they overestimate the precision of their private information signals. The second is that investors' confidence changes in a biased fashion as a function of their decision outcomes. The first premise implies overreaction to private information arrival and underreaction to public information arrival. This is consistent with (1) post-corporate event and post-earnings announcement stock price 'drift', (2) negative long-lag autocorrelations (long-run 'overreaction'), and (3) excess volatility of asset prices. Adding the second premise leads to (4) positive short-lag autocorrelations ('momentum'), and (5) short-run post-earnings announcement 'drift,' and negative correlation between future stock returns and long-term measures of past accounting performance. The model also offers several untested empirical implications and implications for corporate financial policy.

Abstract:
We study the joint time-series of daily liquidity in government bond and stock markets over the period 1991 to 1998. Innovations in liquidity are positively and significantly correlated across stock and bond markets. Further, order imbalances in the stock market impact bond and stock liquidity, even after controlling for order imbalances in the bond market. Both results suggest the existence of a common liquidity factor in stock and bond markets. We consider monetary conditions and mutual fund flows as sources of order flow and as primitive determinants of liquidity. Monetary expansion enhances stock market liquidity during crises. U.S. government bond funds see higher inflows and equity funds see higher outflows during financial crises, and these flows are associated with decreased liquidity in stock and bond markets. Our results establish a link between macro liquidity, or money flows, and micro or transactions liquidity.

Abstract:
We study the joint time-series of daily liquidity in government bond and stock markets over the period 1991 to 1998. Innovations in liquidity are positively and significantly correlated across stock and bond markets. Further, order imbalances in the stock market impact bond and stock liquidity, even after controlling for order imbalances in the bond market. Both results suggest the existence of a common liquidity factor in stock and bond markets. We consider monetary conditions and mutual fund flows as sources of order flow and as primitive determinants of liquidity. Monetary expansion enhances stock market liquidity during crises. U.S. government bond funds see higher inflows and equity funds see higher outflows during financial crises, and these flows are associated with decreased liquidity in stock and bond markets. Our results establish a link between "macro" liquidity, or money flows, and "micro" or transactions liquidity.

Abstract:
Spreads, depths and trading activity for US equities are studied over an extended time sample. Daily changes in market averages of liquidity and trading activity are highly volatile, negatively serially correlated and influenced by a variety of factors. Liquidity plummets significantly in down markets but increases weakly in up markets. Trading activity increases in either up or down markets. Recent market volatility induces less trading activity and reduces spreads. There are strong day-of-the-week effects; Fridays are relatively sluggish while Tuesdays are active. Long and short term interest rates influence liquidity and trading activity. Depth and trading activity increase just prior to major macroeconomic announcements.

Liquidity, spreads, depths, trading activity, transactions data

Abstract:
The market micro-structure literature has typically focussed on single assets. Prior to this paper there has been virtually no empirical work on the common determinants of liquidity. This paper documents that quoted spreads, quoted depth and effective spreads co-move with market-wide and industry-wide liquidity. Significant common influences are documented after controlling for return volatility, trading volume and stock price.

Abstract:
Traditionally and understandably, the microscope of market microstructure has focused on attributes of single assets. Little theoretical attention and virtually no empirical work has been devoted to common determinants of liquidity nor to their empirical manifestation, correlated movements in liquidity. But a wider-angle lens exposes an imposing image of commonality. Quoted spreads, quoted depth, and effective spreads co-move with market- and industry-wide liquidity. After controlling for well-known individual liquidity determinants such as volatility, volume, and price, common influences remain significant and material. Recognizing the existence of commonality is a key to uncovering some suggestive evidence that inventory risks and asymmetric information both affect intertemporal changes in liquidity.

Abstract:
Daily returns for stocks listed on the New York Exchange (NYSE) are not serially dependent. In contrast, order imbalances on the same stocks are highly persistent from day to day. These two empirical facts can be reconciled if sophisticated investors react to order imbalances within the trading day by engaging in countervailing trades sufficient to remove serial dependence over the daily horizon. How long does this actually take? The pattern of intra-day serial dependence, over intervals ranging from five minutes to one hour, reveals traces of efficiency-creating actions. For the actively traded NYSE stocks in our sample, it takes longer than five minutes for astute investors to begin such activities. By thirty minutes, they are well along on their daily quest.

Market efficiency, order imbalances, autocorrelations

Abstract:
Daily returns for stocks listed on the New York Exchange (NYSE) are not serially dependent. In contrast, order imbalances on the same stocks are highly persistent from day to day. These two empirical facts can be reconciled if sophisticated investors react to order imbalances within the trading day by engaging in countervailing trades sufficient to remove serial dependence over the daily horizon. How long does this actually take? The pattern of intra-day serial dependence, over intervals ranging from five minutes to one hour, reveals traces of efficiency-creating actions. For the actively-traded NYSE stocks in our sample, it takes longer than five minutes for astute investors to begin such activities. By thirty minutes, they are well along on their daily quest.

Abstract:
We analyze the relation between expected equity returns and the level as well as the volatility of trading activity. We document a negative cross-sectional relationship between stock returns and the variability of dollar trading volume and share turnover, after controlling for size, book-to-market, momentum, and the level of dollar volume or share turnover. This effect survives a number of robustness checks and is statistically and economically significant. Our analysis highlights the importance of trading activity related variables in the cross-section of expected stock returns.

Abstract:
Given the evidence that the level of liquidity affects asset returns, a reasonable hypothesis is that the second moment of liquidity should be positively related to asset returns, provided agents care about the risk associated with fluctuations in liquidity. Motivated by this observation, we analyze the relation between expected equity returns and the level as well as the volatility of trading activity (a proxy for liquidity). We document a result contrary to our initial hypothesis, namely, a negative and surprisingly strong cross-sectional relationship between stock returns and the variability of dollar trading volume and share turnover, after controlling for size, book-to-market, momentum, and the level of dollar volume or share turnover. This effect survives a number of robustness checks and is statistically and economically significant. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of trading activity-related variables in the cross-section of expected stock returns.

Abstract:
Market efficiency, the timely incorporation of information into prices, remains a central and controversial issue in finance. The short-horizon predictability of returns from past order flows is an inverse indicator of efficiency. We analyze this predictability for NYSE stocks that traded every day from 1993 through 2002. Mid-quote return predictability is diminished when bid-ask spreads are narrower. Such predictability has declined over time with the minimum tick size. Variance ratios of five-minute and daily returns suggest that prices were closer to random walk benchmarks during decimal regimes than during regimes with higher tick sizes (and wider spreads). These findings support the notion that liquidity stimulates arbitrage activity, which, in turn, enhances market efficiency. Further, as the tick size decreased, open-close/close-open return variance ratios increased, while return autocorrelations decreased. This suggests an increased incorporation of private information into prices during more liquid regimes.

Market efficiency, liquidity, order imbalance

Abstract:
Deviations from no-arbitrage relations should be related to frictions associated with transacting; in particular to market illiquidity, because frictions impede arbitrage. Thus, financial market liquidity may play a key role in moving prices to fair values. At the same time, a wide futures/cash basis may trigger arbitrage trades and thereby affect liquidity. We test these ideas by studying the joint dynamic structure of aggregate NYSE market liquidity and the NYSE Composite index futures basis for a relatively long time-period, over 3000 trading days. We find that liquidity and the basis forecast each other in addition to being contemporaneously correlated. There is evidence of two-way Granger causality between the short-term absolute basis and effective spreads, and quoted and effective spreads Granger-cause longer-term absolute bases.

These results are preserved after including a proxy for arbitrage financing costs, the Federal Funds rate, which bears an independent positive and significant relation with the short-term absolute basis. Impulse response functions indicate that shocks to the absolute basis predict future stock market liquidity. Overall, the evidence suggests that stock market liquidity enhances the efficiency of the futures/cash pricing system.

Market efficiency, liquidity, arbitrage

Abstract:
We focus on an intuitive measure of trading activity: the aggregate daily order imbalance, buy orders less sell orders, on the NYSE. Order imbalance increases following market declines and vice versa, which reveals that investors are contrarians in aggregate. Order imbalances in either direction, excess buy or sell orders, reduce liquidity. Market-wide returns are strongly affected by contemporaneous and lagged order imbalances. Market returns reverse themselves after high negative imbalance, large negative return days. Even after controlling for aggregate volume and liquidity, market returns are affected by order imbalance.

Order Imbalance, Liquidity, Trading Volume, Transactions

Abstract:
In this paper, we analyze cross-sectional heterogeneity in the time-series variation of liquidity. Average daily changes in liquidity exhibit significant heterogeneity in the cross-section; the liquidity of small firms varies more on a daily basis than that of large firms. A steady increase in aggregate market liquidity over the past decade is more strongly manifest in large firms than in small firms. We investigate cross-sectional differences in the resilience of a firm?s liquidity to information shocks. We use the sensitivity of stock liquidity to absolute stock returns as an inverse measure of this resilience, and find that the measure exhibits considerable cross-sectional variation. Firm size, return volatility, institutional holdings, and volume are all significant cross-sectional determinants of this measure.

Abstract:
This paper offers a model in which asset rices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firms' prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing measures (e.g., fundamental/price ratios). With many securities, mispricing of idiosyncratic value components diminishes but systematic mispricing does not. The theory offers untested empirical implications about volume, volatility, fundamental/price ratios, and mean returns, and is consistent with several empirical findings. These include the ability of fundamental/price ratios and market value to forecast returns, and the domination of beta by these variables in some studies.

Abstract:
This paper offers a multisecurity model in which prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firms' prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade to profit from mispricing. We derive a pricing relationship in which expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing variables. The model thereby implies a multivariate relation between expected return, beta, and variables that proxy for mispricing of idiosyncratic components of value tends to be arbitraged away but systematic mispricing is not. The theory is consistent with several empirical findings regarding the cross-section of equity returns, including: the observed ability of fundamental/price ratios to forecast aggregate and cross-sectional returns, and of market value but not non-market size measures to forecast returns cross-sectionally; and the ability in some studies of fundamental/price ratios and market value to dominate traditional measures of security risk. The model also offers several untested empirical implications for the cross-section of expected returns and for the relation of volume to subsequent volatility.

Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of company brand perceptions on investor incentives to hold stocks. We find that, after controlling for other postulated determinants of stockholdings, there is a negative and significant cross-sectional relation between percentage
institutional holdings and brand visibility. This result is consistent with the notion that individual investors prefer to invest in stocks with easily-recognized products. Furthermore, we find that institutional holdings are positively related to firm size and beta. These results are intertemporally stable. Our analysis supports the notion that institutional portfolios eschew the relatively neglected small firm sector, whereas individual investors prefer holding stocks with high recognition and consequently, greater information flows and smaller parameter estimation risk. The analysis contributes to our understanding of how investors form their equity portfolios.

Institutional holdings, market efficiency

Abstract:
We provide a model in which irrational investors trade based upon considerations that are not inherently related to fundamentals. However, because trading activity affects market prices, and because of feedback from security prices to cash flows, the irrational trades influence underlying cash flows. As a result, irrational investors can, in some situations, earn positive expected profits. These expected profits are not market compensation for bearing risk, and can exceed the expected profits of rational informed investors. The trades of irrational investors can distort real investment choices and lower ex ante firm values, even though stocks prices follow a random walk.

Abstract:
I review the recent literature on cross-sectional predictors of stock returns. Predictive variables used emanate from informal arguments, alternative tests of risk-return models, behavioral biases, and frictions. More than fifty variables have been used to predict returns. The overall picture, however, remains murky, because more needs to be done to consider the correlational structure amongst the variables, use a comprehensive set of controls, and discern whether the results survive simple variations in methodology.

market efficiency, cross-section of stock returns

Abstract:
We study the collapse of the market for perpetual floating rate notes (perps). The perp market was launched in 1984, and its first two years were characterized by explosive growth in which issues by high quality borrowers were placed with institutional investors and traded in liquid secondary markets. However, the perp market began collapsing precipitously in December 1986, due to the withdrawal of market intermediaries prompted by large order imbalances. Although most of the original perps remain outstanding, prices and liquidity have not recovered. We develop a model to explain the events observed in the perp market and to draw lessons on how commonality in liquidity can affect market performance and intermediary incentives. We provide new insights into how markets can collapse even in the absence of information asymmetry or bubbles. We also contribute to the corporate governance literature by providing a new rationale for placing securities with a broad investor base -- to minimize the possibility that common liquidity shocks will cause a market to fail.

ownership structure, monitoring, market liquidity, common liquidity risk, market collapse

Abstract:
We analyze the relation between the price reaction to analysts' revisions and the attributes (years of experience, reputation of the analysts' brokerage houses) of the analysts making the recommendations. These attributes form proxies for analyst ability that we validate by documenting that revisions by high-ability analysts outperform those by low-ability ones. In addition, we find evidence of return persistence following small revisions by high-ability analysts and the opposite return pattern following large revisions of low-ability analysts. These results are consistent with the Griffin and Tversky (1992) argument that agents place emphasis on the strength of the signal (the dramatic nature of the event) and may de-emphasize the weight (the ability of the analyst making the recommendation). Our study provides an empirical link between evidence on individual decision-making and stock market returns, and also helps promote an understanding of the analyst industry as well as its interaction with the investing population.

Analysts, return reactions, stock recommendations

Abstract:
We provide a model with overconfident risk neutral investors, and therefore no risk premia, in which a price-based portfolio such as HML earns positive expected returns and loads on fundamental macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, loadings on such portfolios are proxies for mispricing, and therefore forecast cross-sectional returns, even after controlling for characteristics such as book-to-market. Thus, an empirical finding that covariances incrementally predict returns does not distinguish rational factor pricing from a setting with no risk premia. The analysis reconciles the high risk (market betas) of low book-to-market firms with their low expected returns, and offers new empirical implications to distinguish alternative theories.

factor models, overconfidence, Fama-French factors, covariance risk

Abstract:
This paper studies the relation between order imbalances and daily returns of individual stocks. Our tests are motivated by a theoretical framework, whose distinguishing feature is that it explicitly considers how market makers with inventory concerns dynamically accommodate autocorrelated imbalances. Persistence in imbalances arises because agents split their orders over time to minimize expected trading costs. In equilibrium, continuing price pressures caused by autocorrelated imbalances cause a positive relation between lagged imbalances and returns over daily horizons. However, this positive relation reverses sign after controlling for the current imbalance. We find empirical evidence consistent with all of these implications of the model. We also find that imbalance-based trading strategies yield statistically significant returns, the magnitude of which is moderate enough to be consistent with an equilibrium wherein intermediaries with inventory concerns accommodate persistent trader demands. Our results shed light on the role of inventory effects in daily stock price movements.

Microstructure, Order Imbalance, Individual Stock Returns

Abstract:
In this paper, we shed theoretical and empirical light on short-horizon return reversals. We provide a model of price formation where risk averse agents absorb the order flow from outside investors. This framework captures both behavioral and inventory effects, and allows us to obtain analytical implications for the conditions required to obtain reversals in returns. Key to distinguishing between inventory and overreaction explanations for such reversals is the role of order flow. The inventory rationale requires a relation between returns and past order flow, whereas a reversion in beliefs of biased agents can cause reversal in returns independent of order flow. Our theoretical analysis further implies that lagged returns dominate lagged order flows in explaining current returns only if belief reversion is the dominant driver of return reversals. The empirical results indicate that, at monthly horizons, current returns are more strongly related to lagged returns than to lagged order imbalances. This suggests that monthly reversals are not completely captured by inventory effects and may be driven, in part, by belief reversion. We do find that returns are related to lagged imbalance innovations at horizons longer than a month. Finally, while the statistical significance of the reversal is quite strong, its magnitude is modest enough to not present substantial profit opportunities for individual investors.

microstructure, market efficiency, behavioral finance

Abstract:
I analyze how disclosure policies and managerial cognitive abilities interact to influence stock prices, firm values, and the liquidity of financial markets. High cognitive ability assists in valuecreation within private corporations, but also may enhance the success odds of strategies which mislead large numbers of financial market agents who have access to firms' disclosure statements. Thus, the equilibrium degree of misrepresentation in disclosures can increase with managerial cognitive capacity (or intellect). Equilibrium efforts at improving true expected values of firms are limited by expected gains from misrepresentation. I argue that agents may face very high costs of acquiring information in firms run by managers who are effective at misrepresenting their firms in disclosure statements. This indicates that contrary to extant theoretical literature, there may be a positive relation between liquidity and the degree of information asymmetry between management and outside investors.

Abstract:
I analyze how disclosure policies and managerial attributes interact to influence stock prices, firm values, and the liquidity of financial markets. I adopt the reasonable premises that high cognitive ability assists in value-creation within private corporations, and psychic costs in the sense of Becker (1976) limit (but do not eliminate) the extent of misrepresentation in disclosures. Managerial cognitive ability, the attribute which facilitates the successful functioning of firms, also enhances the odds of success of strategies which mislead large numbers of agents who observe the firm's disclosure statements. Further, agents with greater cognitive ability have higher reservation wages which increases their incentives to overstate firm value. These features cause the equilibrium degree of misrepresentation in disclosures to increase with managerial cognitive capacity (or intellect). Equilibrium efforts at improving true expected values of firms are limited by expected gains from misrepresentation. In a setting where stock prices influence real investment, I show that such confounding disclosures may actually improve ex post firm values. I then argue that agents may have inadequate incentives to acquire information in firms run by managers who are effective at misrepresenting their firms in disclosure statements. This indicates that contrary to findings in the extant theoretical literature, there may be a positive relation between liquidity and the degree of information asymmetry between management and outside investors.

Keywords: Disclosure, liquidity, information asymmetry

Disclosure, liquidity, information asymmetry

Abstract:
This paper studies cross-sectional variations in stock trading activity for a comprehensive sample of NYSE/AMEX and Nasdaq stocks over a period of thirty-six years. Our theoretical framework indicates that trading activity depends on the extent of liquidity trading, the mass of informed agents, and dispersion of opinion about the stock's fundamental value. We further postulate that liquidity or noise trading depends both on a stock's visibility and on portfolio rebalancing needs triggered by past stock price performance. We use size, firm age, price, and the book-to-market ratio as proxies for a firm's visibility. The mass of informed agents is proxied by the number of analysts following the stock, while analyst forecast dispersion, systematic risk, and firm leverage proxy for divergence of opinion. Past return is by far the most significant predictor of stock turnover. Forecast dispersion and systematic risk also play important roles in predicting the cross-section of expected trading activity. Stocks that have performed well in a given year experience aggressive buying pressure in the subsequent year, which points to the presence of momentum investing. Overall, the results support theories of trading based on differences of opinion and stock visibility.

Volume, Market Efficiency, Liquidity

Abstract:
We study common determinants of daily bid-ask spreads and trading volume for the bond and stock markets over the 1991-98 period. We find that spread changes in one market are affected by lagged spread and volume changes in both markets. Further, spread and volume changes are predictable to a considerable degree using lagged market returns, lagged interest rates, lagged spreads, and lagged volume. During periods of financial crisis, stock and bond spreads and volume are more volatile and become more highly correlated; moreover, at these times, money supply positively affects financial market liquidity, albeit with a lag of two weeks. During normal times, increases in mutual fund flows enhance stock market liquidity and trading volume, but during financial crises, U.S. government bond funds see higher inflows, resulting in increased bond market liquidity. Overall, this study deepens our understanding of the dynamics of liquidity in financial markets and suggests how asset allocation strategies might be designed to reduce trading costs.

stock bond liquidity, crises, money supply

Abstract:
In this study, we employ order imbalance measures to provide evidence that there is cross-sectional heterogeneity in investor reactions to seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). The normally positive relation between imbalances and returns disappears for trade number imbalances but remains intact for dollar imbalances following SEOs. The return-imbalance delinkage is most pronounced for SEO stocks in which institutions (non-institutions) are net sellers (buyers). We also find that the SEO portfolio in which large institutional investors are net sellers strongly underperforms the complementary portfolio in which they are net buyers.

Abstract:
In this study, we employ order imbalance measures to provide evidence that there exists an individual/institutional dichotomy in reactions to seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). The normally positive relation between imbalances and returns disappears for trade number imbalances but remains intact for dollar imbalances following SEOs. Further analysis supports the notion that small, possibly naive, individual investors keep buying SEO stocks actively while the returns of these stocks reverse in the post-issue period. It seems to take more than two years for small individual investors to adequately revise their overoptimistic views. Consequently, the SEO portfolios that individual investors buy on net strongly underperform relative to size-matching nonissuer portfolios as well as to SEO portfolios that institutional investors buy on net in the post-issue period.

SEOs, order imbalance, market efficiency

Abstract:
Previous studies of Treasury market illiquidity span short time-periods and focus on particular maturities. In contrast, we study the joint time-series of illiquidity for different maturities over an extended time sample. We also compare time series determinants of on-the-run and off-the-run illiquidity. Illiquidity increases and the difference between spreads of long- and short-term bonds significantly widens during recessions, suggesting a "flight to liquidity" phenomenon wherein investors shift into the more liquid short-term bonds during economic contractions. We also document that macroeconomic variables such as inflation and federal fund rates forecast off-the-run illiquidity significantly but have only modest forecasting ability for on-the-run illiquidity. Bond returns across all maturities are forecastable by off-the-run short-term illiquidity but not by illiquidity of other maturities or by on-the-run bond illiquidity. Thus, short-term off-the-run liquidity, by reflecting macro shocks first, is the primary source of the liquidity premium in the Treasury bond market.

Abstract:
This paper sheds empirical light on whether investor sentiment affects the profitability of price momentum strategies. We hypothesize that when investors are optimistic, their expectations will be more miscalibrated relative to those obtained from objective probabilities, and arbitrage will be more difficult with short-selling constraints. Our results show that momentum rises only when investors are optimistic, and that optimistic momentum portfolios experience long-run reversals. These results provide support to the behavioral theories, suggesting that short-run momentum and long-run reversal commonly arise from investors’ behavioral biases.

behavioral finance, investor sentiment, momentum, market efficiency

Abstract:
We study the consumption-investment problem of an agent with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) preferences who possesses private information about the future prospects of a stock. We examine the value of the information to the agent by comparing the utility equivalent with and without the information of the agent. The value of private of information to the agent depends linearly on the wealth of agents and decreases with both the propensity to intermediate consumption and the risk aversion. Agents with low coefficients of relative risk aversion value private information more highly. Highly risk averse informed agents consume a greater fraction of their wealth when they are informed than when they are uninformed, but the opposite is true of agents with low degrees of risk aversion. Consistent with the empirical literature, the optimal portfolio holdings of informed agents are correlated with expected returns on the risky asset.

Information, portfolio choice

Abstract:
Given the lack of any clear evidence on the informational contributions of market intermediaries vis-à-vis their clients in the extant literature, an important but unanswered question is whether intermediaries behave as passive traders or whether they actively seek and trade on information. In this paper, we explicitly compare the informational advantages of intermediaries with those of other investors in the market. We also analyze whether intermediaries trade ahead of their clients to buttress their profits. Using confidential trades data from the Toronto Stock Exchange, we find that intermediaries account for greater price discovery than other institutional and individual investors, in spite of initiating fewer trades and volume. Our estimates of price discovery attributable to market intermediaries range between 55% and 62%, although these traders are responsible for only 37% of trades, representing less than 41% of total volume. Our analysis indicates that the informational advantage of intermediaries is greater in stocks with low analyst following (and hence less competition for information). This advantage does not appear to stem from inappropriate handling of customer orders by intermediaries, such as frontrunning or stepping ahead of their clients.

Price discovery, intermediaries

Abstract:
Share turnover has increased dramatically over the past few years. We explore patterns in the microstructure of trading activity underlying this increase, and analyze possible causes and consequences of this trend. Higher turnover has been associated with more frequent smaller trades. Lower trading costs play an important role in causing these trends. An increase in institutional trading seems to be a key contributor. Turnover and serial dependence in large trades have increased the most for stocks with the greatest level of institutional holdings. An increase in the volatility of equity fund flows also appears to be related to the increase in turnover. Variance ratio tests suggest that greater institutional trading has led to increased information production. The sensitivity of turnover to past returns has increased in recent years, revealing a more widespread use of quantitative trading strategies.

Trading Volume, Turnover, Liquidity, Institutions, Hedge Funds

Abstract:
Many proxies of illiquidity have been used in the literature that relates illiquidity to asset prices. These proxies have been motivated from an empirical standpoint. In this study, we approach liquidity estimation from a theoretical perspective. Our method explicitly recognizes the analytic dependence of illiquidity on more primitive drivers such as trading activity and information asymmetry. More specifically, we estimate illiquidity using structural formulae in line with Kyle's (1985) lambda for a comprehensive sample of stocks. The empirical results provide evidence that theory-based estimates of illiquidity are priced in the cross-section of expected stock returns, even after accounting for risk factors, firm characteristics known to influence returns, and other illiquidity proxies prevalent in the literature.

illiquidity, Kyle lambda, theory-based illiquidity, asset pricing

Abstract:
This paper explores liquidity spillovers in market-capitalization based portfolios of NYSE stocks as well as the value-weighted Nasdaq portfolio to gain insight about dynamic movements in returns, volatility, and liquidity. We find that lead and lag patterns across small and large cap stocks are stronger when spreads in the large cap sector are wider.

Consistent with the notion that trading on common information in large cap stocks is transmitted to other stocks with a lag, order flows in large cap stocks significantly predict both transaction price-based and mid-quote returns of small cap deciles when large-cap spreads are high. Impulse response functions indicate the existence of persistent liquidity,
return, and volatility spillovers across large and small cap stocks.

Liquidity dynamics, small firms, large firms, cross-autocorrelations

Abstract:
We study the effect of options trading volume on the value of the underlying firm after controlling for other variables that may affect firm value. The volume of options trading might have an effect on firm value because it helps to complete the market (allocational efficiency) and because the options market impounds information faster than the stock market (informational efficiency). We find that firms with more options trading have higher values. This result holds for all sample firms and for the subset of firms with positive options volume.

Abstract:
This paper examines the mechanism through which the incorporation of information into prices leads to cross-autocorrelations in stock returns. The lead-lag relation between large and small stocks increases with lagged spreads of large stocks. Further, order flows in large stocks significantly predict the returns of small stocks when large stock spreads are high. This effect is consistent with the notion that trading on common information takes place first in the large stocks and is then transmitted to smaller stocks with a lag, suggesting that price discovery takes place in the large stocks.

lead-lag, returns, small stocks, large stocks, microstructure, information

Abstract:
The demand for immediacy is likely to be stronger for sellers of securities than for buyers since investors are more likely to have a pressing need to raise cash than to exchange cash for securities. Secondly, previous literature suggests that market makers will react asymmetrically to orders for the purchase and sale of securities. We estimate separate buy- and sell-side price impact measures for a large cross-section of stocks over more than 20 years, and find pervasive evidence that sell-side illiquidity exceeds buy-side illiquidity. Thus, the time-series of the value weighted average difference between buy- and sell-side illiquidity is overwhelmingly positive over our sample period. Further, both illiquidity measures co-move significantly with the TED spread, a measure of funding liquidity. In the cross-section, sell-side illiquidity is priced far more strongly than buy-side illiquidity. Indeed, our evidence indicates that the illiquidity premium in asset returns emanates almost entirely from the sell side.

Liquidity, Kyle Lambda, Trading costs, Asset pricing

Abstract:
Executive compensation has increased dramatically in recent times, but so has trading volume and individual investor access to financial markets. We provide a model in which some managers obfuscate financial statements in order to extract additional compensation. Owing to a lack of sophistication or naivete, possibly arising from high opportunity costs of learning about accounting conventions and financial markets, small investors do not ascertain the extent of this behavior. Expected compensation is therefore higher when small investors form a more significant clientele in the market for a firm's stock. Our model further suggests that increased information asymmetry between large and small traders may deter the entry of small investors and keep executive compensation in check. Technologies that lower the cost of trading facilitate entry of small investors and raise expected compensation. Such compensation can in general be reduced through appropriate regulation and transparent disclosures. Empirical tests provide support to the key implication of the model that indirect executive compensation is higher in stocks with more retail investor participation.

executive compensation, corporate governance

Abstract:
We show how a high degree of commonality in investor liquidity shocks can diminish incentives for intermediaries to keep markets open and lead to market collapse, even without information asymmetry or news affecting fundamentals. We motivate our model using the perpetual floating rate note market where two years of explosive growth - in which issues by high quality borrowers were placed with institutional investors and traded in a liquid secondary market - were followed by a precipitous collapse when market intermediaries withdrew due to large order imbalances. We shed new light on the trade-off between ownership concentration and market liquidity.

ownership concentration, intermediation, market liquidity, common liquidity shocks, market collapse

Abstract:
Relatively little is known about the trading volume in derivatives relative to the volume in underlying stocks. We study time-series properties and the determinants of the options/stock trading volume ratio (O/S) using a comprehensive cross-section and time-series of data on equities and their listed options. O/S is related to many intuitive determinants such as delta and trading costs, and it also varies with institutional holdings, analyst following, and analyst forecast dispersion. O/S is higher around earnings announcements (suggesting increased trading in the options market), and higher O/S predicts lower abnormal returns after the earnings announcement, suggesting that options trading improves market efficiency.

derivatives volume, stock volume, market efficiency

Abstract:
Several studies on the expiration of IPO lockups document a strong negative reaction even though the unlock event is devoid of any informational content. The empirical finding has remained a conundrum. In this paper, we find that changes in liquidity can account for the observed stock price reaction around lockup expiration. Specifically, firms which show improvement in liquidity subsequent to the unlock day experience positive abnormal returns in the post-expiration period, and vice versa. Another interesting conclusion that emerges from our research is that liquidity changes can predict future abnormal returns. Our results remain robust to the use of alternate procedures to characterize unexpected changes in liquidity.

Lockup expiration, Illiquidity

Abstract:
In this paper, we shed further light on cross-sectional predictors of stock return performance. Specifically, we explore whether the cross-section of expected stock returns is robust within stock groups sorted by past monthly return. We find that the book/market and momentum effects are remarkably robust to sorting on past returns. However, share turnover is negatively related to future returns for stocks with abnormally low stock price performance in the recent past, but postively related to returns for well-performing stocks. This casts doubt on the use of turnover as a liquidity proxy, but is consistent with turnover being a proxy for momentum trading which pushes prices in the direction of past price movements. Our results are robust to both NYSE/AMEX and Nasdaq stocks, and also robust to stratifying the sample by time period.

Abstract:
This article represents the first exploration of liquidity and order flow spillovers across New York Stock Exchange stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs). Impulse response functions and Granger causality tests indicate the existence of persistent liquidity spillovers running from REITs to non-REITs. Specifically, REIT liquidity indicators are forecastable from non-REIT ones, at both daily and monthly horizons. I also provide evidence of a liquidity premium inherent in REIT returns. While REIT prices appear to be set efficiently in that neither REIT nor non-REIT order flows forecast REIT returns, I find that order flows and returns in the stock market negatively forecast REIT order flows. This result is consistent with the notion that real estate markets are viewed as substitute investments for the stock market, which causes down-moves in the stock market to increase money flows to the REIT market.

Abstract:
We study one-year post-listing prices and returns to equity issuing ADRs that listed in the US between January 1991 and October 2000. ADRs from countries that impose restrictions on capital flows are priced at a premium to their home market ordinaries. While the mean premium for the full sample is statistically indistinguishable from zero, after an adjustment for asynchronous trading, the magnitude of the premium to ADRs from restricted markets is 11.33% at the 300-day post listing interval, which is statistically significant. In the short run (30 days) following listing, the magnitude of the premium is larger for ADRs with larger excess demand from US investors. At the longer 300-day horizon, Nasdaq listed ADRs earn a larger premium than their NYSE/AMEX listed counterparts. Time-series regressions and two-stage cross-sectional regressions establish that the premium to foreign equity issuers is greater if the US listing attracts liquidity and if US returns have a lower correlation with the local country index.

Abstract:
We analyse a sample of foreign firms issuing equity in the USA to determine the factors that affect IPO and SEO pricing. The average SEO discount, defined as the percentage difference between the price in the local market on the offering date and the SEO offer price, is 2.07%, and is significantly lower for stocks that are ultimately listed on the NYSE/AMEX than for stocks that are listed on the Nasdaq. Foreign equity issues are under-priced; the traditional under-pricing discount, which is defined as the percentage difference between the closing price on the first day of trading and the offer price, is 18.75% on average. Equity issuers from industry groups with the largest six-month pre-IPO return in the US market experience a higher level of under-pricing. For the sub-sample of emerging market issues, we document that, in the after-market, the ADR price remains persistently above the dollar denominated price in the domestic market for up to 90 days following the date of the issue.

Abstract:
I provide a synthesis of the Behavioral finance literature over the past two decades. I review the literature in three parts, namely, (i) empirical and theoretical analyzes of patterns in the cross-section of average stock returns, (ii) studies on trading activity, and (iii) research in corporate finance. Behavioral finance is an exciting new field because it presents a number of normative implications for both individual investors and CEOs. The papers reviewed here allow us to learn more about these specific implications.

Abstract:
In this paper, we analyse cross-sectional heterogeneity in the time-series variation of liquidity in equity markets. Our analysis uses a broad time-series and cross-section of liquidity data. We find that average daily changes in liquidity exhibit significant heterogeneity in the cross-section; the liquidity of small firms varies more on a daily basis than that of large firms. A steady increase in aggregate market liquidity over the past decade is more strongly manifest in large firms than in small firms. Absolute stock returns are an important determinant of liquidity. We investigate cross-sectional differences in the resilience of a firm's liquidity to information shocks. We use the sensitivity of stock liquidity to absolute stock returns as an inverse measure of this resilience, and find that the measure exhibits considerable cross-sectional variation. Firm size, return volatility, institutional holdings, and volume are all significant cross-sectional determinants of this measure.

Abstract:
We analyse frameworks that link corporate governance and firm values to governing boards' social networks and innovations in technology. Because agents create social networks with individuals with whom they share commonalities along the dimensions of social status and income, among other attributes, CEOs may participate in board members' social networks, which interferes with the quality of governance. At the same time, social connections with members of a board can allow for better evaluation of the members' abilities. Thus, in choosing whether to have board members with social ties to management, one must trade off the benefit of members successfully identifying high ability CEOs against the cost of inadequate monitoring due to social connections. Further, technologies like the Internet and electronic mail that reduce the extent of face-to-face networking cause agents to seek satisfaction of their social needs at the workplace, which exacerbates the impact of social networks on governance. The predictions of our model are consistent with recent episodes that appear to signify inadequate monitoring of corporate disclosures as well as with high levels of executive compensation. Additionally, empirical tests support the model's key implication that there is better governance and lower executive compensation in firms where networks are less likely to form.

Abstract:
Many proxies of illiquidity have been used in the literature that relates illiquidity to asset prices. These proxies have been motivated from an empirical standpoint. In this study, we approach liquidity estimation from a theoretical perspective. Our method explicitly recognizes the analytic dependence of illiquidity on more primitive drivers such as trading activity and information asymmetry. More specifically, we estimate illiquidity using structural formulae in line with Kyle's (1985) lambda for a comprehensive sample of stocks. The empirical results provide evidence that theory-based estimates of illiquidity are priced in the cross-section of expected stock returns, even after accounting for risk factors, firm characteristics known to influence returns, and other illiquidity proxies prevalent in the literature.

G12, G14

Abstract:
Two means by which commodity producers can reduce their exposure to quantity risk are share contracting and futures hedging. This paper explains the coexistence of these arrangements by showing that these will normally be complementary means of transferring risk. Share contracting by a purchaser with many producers can help diversify imperfectly correlated quantity risks. Futures contracts, on the other hand, hedge the systematic but not the idiosyncratic components of output risk. Thus, futures hedging helps to ameliorate the main disadvantage of multiple share contracting, an excessive loading of systematic risk on the purchaser.

Abstract:
In existing models of information acquisition, all informed investors receive their information at the same time. This article analyzes trading behavior and equilibrium information acquisition when some investors receive common private information before others. The model implies that, under some conditions, investors will focus only on a subset of securities ("herding"), while neglecting other securities with identical exogenous characteristics. In addition, the model is consistent with empirical correlations that are suggestive of oft-cited trading strategies such as profit taking (short-term position reversal) and following the leader (mimicking earlier trades).

Abstract:
This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing measures (e.g., fundamental/price ratios). With many securities, mispricing of idiosyncratic value components diminishes but systematic mispricing does not. The theory offers untested empirical implications about volume, volatility, fundamental/price ratios, and mean returns, and is consistent with several empirical findings. These include the ability of fundamental/price ratios and market value to forecast returns, and the domination of beta by these variables in some studies.

Abstract:
We propose a theory of securities market under- and overreactions based on two well-known psychological biases: investor overconfidence about the precision of private information; and biased self-attribution, which causes asymmetric shifts in investors' confidence as a function of their investment outcomes. We show that overconfidence implies negative long-lag autocorrelations, excess volatility, and, when managerial actions are correlated with stock mispricing, public-event-based return predictability. Biased self-attribution adds positive short-lag autocorrelations ("momentum"), short-run earnings "drift," but negative correlation between future returns and long-term past stock market and accounting performance. The theory also offers several untested implications and implications for corporate financial policy.

Abstract:
In this paper, we shed light on short-horizon return reversals. We show theoretically that a risk-based rationale for reversals implies a relation between returns and past order flow, whereas a reversion in beliefs of biased agents does not do so. The empirical results indicate that returns are more strongly related to own-return lags than to lagged order imbalances. Thus, the evidence suggests that monthly reversals are not completely captured by inventory effects and may be driven, in part, by belief reversion. We do find that returns are cross-sectionally related to lagged imbalance innovations at horizons longer than a month.

Market efficiency, order imbalance, trading activity

Abstract:
This study addressed U.S. stock daily returns and volume around days when the market is open that correspond to religious or cultural occasions - specifically, St. Patrick's Day and the Jewish High Holy Days of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur. On Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur, volume was found to be down relative to volume on all trading days in the sample. The reason may be that the nonfinancial opportunity cost of trading is high for a considerable number of traders on these days. Returns were significantly higher on the days preceding St. Patrick's Day and Rosh Hashanah, which is consistent with the notion that market returns reflect the festive nature of these occasions. Evidence was also found of significantly negative returns after Yom Kippur in the second half of the sample period, which accords with the idea that the market reflects the solemn nature of this occasion. Overall, the results are consistent with the view that mood is a viable explanation for some market movements.

Portfolio Management: Equity Strategies

Abstract:
This paper studies the relation between order imbalances and daily returns of individual stocks. Our tests are motivated by a theoretical framework, whose distinguishing feature is that it explicitly considers how market makers with inventory concerns dynamically accommodate autocorrelated imbalances. Persistence in imbalances arises because agents split their orders over time to minimize expected trading costs. In equilibrium, continuing price pressures caused by autocorrelated imbalances cause a positive relation between lagged imbalances and returns over daily horizons. However, this positive relation reverses sign after controlling for the current imbalance. We find empirical evidence consistent with all of these implications of the model. We also find that imbalance-based trading strategies yield statistically significant returns, the magnitude of which is moderate enough to be consistent with an equilibrium wherein intermediaries with inventory concerns accommodate persistent trader demands.

Order Imbalance, Inventory Models, Market Makers, Autocorrelation in Order Flow

Abstract:
We develop a model that accounts for medium-term continuation (momentum) in asset returns by analyzing information acquisition about news events (such as earnings announcements) in a multiperiod setting. As more and more agents become informed about news events, temporal uncertainty is resolved endogenously through market prices over time, which leads to positive autocorrelations in asset returns. We empirically estimate serial correlations over medium-term horizons for portfolios sorted by firm size and past stock performance and find that calibration of serial correlations in our model spans the range of empirically estimated correlations.

Abstract:
In this paper, we focus on a previously unexplored but an intuitive measure of trading activity: the aggregate daily order imbalance, buy orders less sell orders, on the NYSE. Order imbalance increases following market declines and vice versa, which reveals that investors are contrarians on aggregate. Order imbalances in either direction reduce liquidity. Market-wide returns are strongly affected by contemporaneous and lagged order imbalances. Market returns reverse themselves after high negative imbalance, large negative return days. Even after controlling for aggregate volume and liquidity, market returns are affected by order imbalance.

Market Order Imbalance, Liquidity, Trading Volume, Contrarian

Abstract:
When the imminence of news announcements is not public knowledge, many traders will lack information on both the mean and variance of private information. Our analysis of such a setting in both single and multi-security contexts implies that disclosure of impending information events by firms can bound variance uncertainty and thereby improve investor welfare by mitigating the market breakdown problem. We also find that the equilibrium pricing functions are non-linear; specifically, convex for small trades and concave for larger ones. In addition, we predict that large transactions will be followed by large levels of volatility.

Abstract:
In existing models of information acquisition, all informed investors receive their information at the same time. This paper analyzes trading behavior and equilibrium information acquisition when some investors receive common private information before others. The model implies that under some conditions, investors will focus only on a subset of securities (herding), while neglecting other securities withidentical exogenous characteristics. In addition, the model is consistent with empirical correlations that are suggestive of the oft-cited trading strategies such as profit-taking (short-term position reversal) and following- the-leader (mimicking earlier trades).

Abstract:
Models of price formation in securities markets suggest that privately informed investors are a significant source of market illiquidity. Since illiquidity increases the round-trip trading cost of an investor, this implies that uninformed investors will demand higher rates of return from securities in which informational asymmetries are more severe. In this paper we derive a simple relationship between expected stock returns and market illiquidity in a model with a single representative investor. Using CRSP data for the period 1984-1992, and ISSM intraday data for the year 1988, we investigate the empirical relation between stock returns and measures of market illiquidity. We find a significant relation between required rates of return and our measure of market illiquidity using two types of test. First, following Amihud and Mendelson (1986), we control for the effects of firm size and systematic risk, as well as the quoted spread; and secondly, following Fama and French (1993), we adjust for risk factors related to the overall market, firm size, and the book-to-market ratio.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of a finite tick size and the practice of 'payment-for-order-flow' on competition between NYSE and non-NYSE market makers. Due to the presence of non-specialist market makers, order submitters find that their NYSE orders are sometimes executed at better than quoted prices. Our analysis implies that even if the NYSE reservation price is superior to its non-NYSE counterpart, brokers may, due to payment-for-order-flow, prefer to execute orders off the NYSE floor. Further, if, unlike NYSE specialists, non-NYSE market makers can more easily offset their inventory exposure (using, for example, options markets), they offer more competitive prices. In accordance with the implications of the model, we provide empirical evidence that non-NYSE market makers trade a larger fraction of the smaller order sizes and offer fewer price improvement opportunities. Also, large companies appear to have enhanced price improvement opportunities on the NYSE, suggesting that the number of non-specialist market positively affects such opportunities.

Abstract:
This paper investigates empirically the relation between the number of analysts following a security and the cost of transacting in the security, using intraday data for the year 1988. Using single and simultaneous equation specifications, it is found that the quoted bid-ask spreads on a large sample of securities are positively related to the number analysts following the security. On the other hand, estimates of the measure of market illiquidity introduced by Kyle (1985) are negatively related to analyst following. The former result is consistent with the model of Glosten and Milgrom (1985), while the latter is consistent with that of Admati and Pfleiderer (1988). Estimates of structural parameters of a model of endogenous information acquisition developed by Admati and Pfleiderer (1988) provide limited support for the model.

Abstract:
This paper examines ex ante effects of "circuit breakers" (mandated trading halts). We show that circuit breakers, by causing agents to suhoptimally advance trades in time, may have the perverse effect of increasing price variability and exacerbating price movements. We next consider a situation in which a circuit breaker causes trading to be halted in both a "dominant" (more liquid) and a "satellite" market. As agents switch from the dominant market to the satellite market, price variability and market liquidity decline on the dominant market and increase on the satellite market.

Abstract:
This article analyzes the effects of a finite tick size and the practice of "payment-for-order flow" on market maker competition. Even if the NYSE reservation price is superior to its non-NYSE counterpart, brokers may, due to payment-for-order flow, prefer to execute orders off the NYSE floor. In accordance with the implications of the model, empirical analysis suggests that the non-NYSE market makers trade a larger fraction of the smaller order sizes and offer fewer price improvement opportunities; and large companies appear to have enhanced price improvement opportunities on the NYSE.

Abstract:
We analyze the relation between equity returns, risk, and a rich set of security characteristics that includes institutional ownership, S&P 500 index membership, analyst following, and dispersion in analyst forecasts, in addition to previously examined variables such as the book-to-market ratio, firm size, the bid-ask spread, and lagged returns. Our primary objective is to determine whether these characteristics have marginal explanatory power relative to the Connor and Korajczyk (1988) risk factors. We also compare the different approaches that have been used to test asset pricing models against specific alternatives. We find that inferences are extremely sensitive to the sorting criteria used for portfolio formation, so that results based on regressions using portfolio returns should be interpreted with caution. Fama-MacBeth type regressions for individual securities suggest some new findings: risk-adjusted stock returns show a puzzling negative (and strongly significant) relation to the bid-ask spread, a negative relation with both size and share turnover, and a positive relation with both S&P 500 membership and analyst following. However, previously noted book-to-market and size effects are eliminated once account is taken of the above characteristics.

Abstract:
This paper explores the linkages between the informational efficiency of stock prices, corporate investment and financing decisions, and the development of equity markets in emerging economies. We begin with the premise that investors obtain information costlessly and purely by chance (i.e., "serendipitously"), as well as by expending scarce resources, and show that publicly financed firms generally make better investment decisions than privately financed firms when the influence of serendipitous information on firm values is sufficiently strong. In this case, resources are allocated more efficiently in an economy where most firms are publicly rather than privately financed. However, because of externalities, an inferior equilibrium can exist where most firms remain privately financed.

Abstract:
I explore the effects of trade-size dependent transaction taxes on market liquidity and information acquisition. Transaction taxes cause strategic informed traders to scale back their aggregate trading, which, surprisingly, causes both market liquidity and informed investor profits to decline in the level of the tax. Taxes on trading can reduce rent-seeking behavior when agents engage in a "race" to obtain private information earlier than others. Such taxes also generally reduce (increase) the proportion of agents acquiring short-term (long-term) information and thus can lead to greater firm values.

Abstract:
We explore the effects of transaction taxes in financial markets with asymmetric information. We show that transaction taxes cause competing informed traders to scale back their aggregate trading towards the quantity traded by a monopolist informed trader. Surprisingly, this causes both market liquidity and informed investor profits to decline in the level of the transaction tax. We also analyze the effect of a transaction tax on the welfare of risk averse, informed hedgers. In the context of a dynamic, competitive model in which agents expend scarce resources to influence early receipt of an information signal, we find that transaction taxes generally cause the proportion of informed agents who choose to acquire information early to decline. Thus, our analysis suggests that transaction taxes can have the beneficial effect of reducing wasteful rent seeking in the "race" to obtain information early. We also show that transaction taxes can reduce (increase) the equilibrium proportion of agents who are short-term (long-term) oriented in their information acquisition decisions, and thus can enhance long-term informational efficiency and resource allocation.

Abstract:
We analyze a competitive model in which different information signals get reflected in value at different points in time. If investors are sufficiently risk averse, we obtain an equilibrium in which all investors focus exclusively on the short-term. In addition, we show that increasing the variance of informationless trading increases market depth but causes a greater proportion of investors to focus on the short-term signal, which decreases the informativeness of prices about the long-run. Finally, we also explore parameter spaces under which long-term informed agents wish to voluntarily disclose their information.

Abstract:
We analyze trading behavior and information acquisition in a competitive rational expectations model in which different information signals get reflected in value at different points in time (in the short-term and in the long-term). If investors are sufficiently risk averse, we obtain a unique equilibrium in which the entire mass of investors endogenously focuses on the short-term and thereby neglects long-run fundamentals. We also show that ``too much'' market liquidity (in the form of a large variance of informationless trading) causes a greater proportion of investors to focus on the short-term signal, which decreases the informativeness of prices about long-run determinants of value. Further, we show that long-term informed agents optimally postpone heavy trading until after the disclosure of public signals which partly resolve the uncertainty surrounding true value. This is consistent with empirical evidence of increases in trading volume immediately following quarterly earnings announcements. Finally, we explore an alternative framework in which informed agents may voluntarily and credibly disclose their information following an initial round of trade. We explore parameter spaces under which such disclosure is optimal.