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Abstract:
Many studies of regional disparity in China have focused on the preferential policies received by the coastal provinces. We decomposed the location dummies in provincial growth regressions to obtain estimates of the effects of geography and policy on provincial growth rates in 1996-99. Their respective contributions in percentage points were 2.5 and 3.5 for the province-level metropolises, 0.6 and 2.3 for the northeastern provinces, 2.8 and 2.8 for the coastal provinces, 2.0 and 1.6 for the central provinces, 0 and 1.6 for the northwestern provinces, and 0.1 and 1.8 for the southwestern provinces. Because the so-called preferential policies are largely deregulation policies that allowed coastal Chinese provinces to integrate into the international economy, it is far superior to reduce regional disparity by extending these deregulation policies to the interior provinces than by re-regulating the coastal provinces. Two additional inhibitions to income convergence are the household registration system, which makes the movement of the rural poor to prosperous areas illegal, and the monopoly state bank system that, because of their bureaucratic nature, disburses most of its funds to its large traditional customers, few of whom are located in the western provinces. Improving infrastructure to overcome geographic barriers is fundamental to increasing western growth, but increasing human capital formation (education and medical care) is also crucial because only it can come up with new better ideas to solve centuries-old problems like unbalanced growth.

China's Regional Growth Pattern, Economic Geography, Preferential Policies, China's Western Region Development Strategy

Abstract:
Many studies of regional disparity in China have focused on the preferential policies received by the coastal provinces. We decomposed the location dummies in provincial growth regressions to obtain estimates of the effects of geography and policy on provincial growth rates in 1996?99. Their respective contributions in percentage points were 2.5 and 3.5 for the province-level metropolises, 0.6 and 2.3 for the northeastern provinces, 2.8 and 2.8 for the coastal provinces, 2.0 and 1.6 for the central provinces, 0 and 1.6 for the northwestern provinces, and 0.1 and 1.8 for the southwestern provinces. Because the so-called preferential policies are largely deregulation policies that have allowed coastal Chinese provinces to integrate into the international economy, it is far superior to reduce regional disparity by extending these deregulation policies to the interior provinces than by re-regulating the coastal provinces. Two additional inhibitions to income convergence are the household registration system, which makes the movement of the rural poor to prosperous areas illegal, and the monopoly state bank system that, because of its bureaucratic nature, disburses most of its funds to its large traditional customers, few of whom are located in the western provinces. Improving infrastructure to overcome geographic barriers is fundamental to increasing western growth, but increasing human capital formation (education and medical care) is also crucial because only it can come up with new better ideas to solve centuries-old problems like unbalanced growth.

China's Regional Growth Pattern, Economic Geography, Preferential Policies, China's Western Region Development Strategy

Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between economic reforms and constitutional transition, which has been neglected by many transition economists. It is argued that assessment of reform performance might be very misleading if it is not recognized that economic reforms are just a small part of large scale of constitutional transition. Rivalry and competition between states and between political forces within each country are the driving forces for constitutional transition. We use Russia as an example of economic reforms associated with constitutional transition and China as an example of economic reforms in the absence of constitutional transition to examine features and problems in the two patterns of transition. It is concluded that under political monopoly of the ruling party, economic transition will be hijacked by state opportunism. Dual track approach to economic transition may generate very high long-term cost of constitutional transition that might outweigh its short-term benefit of buying out the vested interests.

Abstract:
This paper reviews the foreign debt burden in Central America with special emphasis on Honduras and Nicaragua, which have a large debt overhang. Several indicators suggest that this foreign debt seriously impedes economic growth in both nations. Honduras and Nicaragua, the poorest countries of Central America, have lagged behind the rest of the region in growth, resulting in an increase in regional income inequality during the 1990s. Analysis suggests that Honduras and Nicaragua require alleviation of their foreign debt as a prerequisite to sustained growth. This paper also evaluates the prospects of these countries to qualify for the new initiative aimed at reducing the debt burden of the highly indebted poor countries (the so-called HIPC Initiative). It concludes that Honduras and Nicaragua have favorable prospects of qualifying for the HIPC Initiative. In general, both countries meet the eligibility criteria. Honduras and Nicaragua face a higher foreign debt burden than three countries that have already qualified for HIPC treatment. The main obstacle, however, is demonstrating successful macroeconomic performance under the supervision of the IMF. The paper ends with a discussion of the strategy that these countries should follow in order to achieve maximum debt relief.

Abstract:
This study investigates the geographic effects on regional economic growth in China under market reforms. We develop a model for the regional growth pattern of the Chinese economy during the period, characterized by foreign direct investment (FDI) and mobilization of rural surplus labor. The FDI and labor migration are directed by the differentials in the expected returns from the capital investment and in the wage rate. The differentials are, to a large extent, explained by geographic factors. In the context of market reforms and the open door policy, the spatial and topographic advantages of the coastal provinces are realized. As a result, the returns to the capital investment in the coastal provinces are higher than in the rest of the country, thus attracting more FDI and migrant labor into the region and causing the growth disparity. Our empirical test supports this hypothesis. It finds that geographic factors are statistically significant in explaining the regional disparity in China. This disparity is mainly a coast versus non-coast gap.

regional diversity, geography, China

Abstract:
One of the surprising features of modern economic growth is that economies with abundant natural resources have tended to grow less rapidly than natural-resource-scarce economies. In this paper we show that economies with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP in 1971 (the base year) tended to have low growth rates during the subsequent period 1971-89. This negative relationship holds true even after controlling for variables found to be important for economic growth, such as initial per capita income, trade policy, government efficiency, investment rates, and other variables. We explore the possible pathways for this negative relationship by studying the cross-country effects of resource endowments on trade policy, bureaucratic efficiency, and other determinants of growth. We also provide a simple theoretical model of endogenous growth that might help to explain the observed negative relationship.

Abstract:
This paper addresses the complex relationship between geography and macroeconomic growth. We investigate the ways in which geography may matter directly for growth, controlling for economic policies and institutions, as well as the effects of geography on policy choices and institutions. We find that location and climate have large effects on income levels and income growth, through their effects on transport costs, disease burdens, and agricultural productivity, among other channels. Furthermore, geography seems to be a factor in the choice of economic policy itself. When we identify geographical regions that are not conducive to modern economic growth, we find that many of these regions have high population density and rapid population increase. This is especially true of populations that are located far from the coast, and thus that face large transport costs for international trade, as well as populations in tropical regions of high disease burden. Furthermore, much of the population increase in the next thirty years is likely to take place in these geographically disadvantaged regions.

Abstract:
In this paper we examine closely the financial events following the Mexican peso devaluation to uncover new lessons about the nature of financial crises. We explore the question of why, during 1995, some emerging markets were hit by financial crises while others were not. To this end, we ask whether there are some fundamentals that help explain the variation in financial crises across countries or whether the variation just reflects contagion. We present a simple model identifying three factors that determine whether a country is more vulnerable to suffer a financial crisis: a high real exchange rate appreciation, a recent lending boom, and low reserves. We find that for a set of 20 emerging markets, differences in these fundamentals go far in explaining why during 1995 some emerging markets were hit by financial crises while others were not. We also find that alternative hypotheses that have been put forth to explain such crises often do not seem to be supported by the data, such as high current account deficits, excessive capital inflows and loose fiscal policies.

Abstract:
Most recent cross-country analyses of economic growth have neglected the importance of physical geography. This paper reviews the distinctive development challenges faced by economies situated in tropical climates. Using geographic information system (GIS) mapping, the paper presents evidence that production technology in the tropics has lagged behind temperate zone technology in the two critical areas of agriculture and health, and this in turn opened a substantial income gap between climate zones. The difficulty of mobilizing energy resources in tropical economies is emphasized as another significant contributor to the income gap. These factors have been amplified by geopolitical power imbalances and by the difficulty of applying temperate-zone technological advances in the tropical setting. The income gap has also been amplified because poor public health and weak agricultural technology in the tropics have combined to slow the demographic transition from high fertility and mortality rates to low fertility and mortality rates. The analysis suggests that economic development in tropical ecozones would benefit from a concerted international effort to develop health and agricultural technologies specific to the needs of the tropical economies.

Abstract:
In a series of papers, my colleagues and I have demonstrated that levels of per capita income, economic growth, and other economic and demographic dimensions are strongly correlated with geographical and ecological variables such as climate zone, disease ecology, and distance from the coast. Three recent papers purport to show that the role of geography in explaining cross-country patterns of income per capita operates predominantly or exclusively through the choice of institutions, with little direct effect of geography on income after controlling for the quality institutions. This note shows that malaria transmission, which is strongly affected by ecological conditions, directly affects the level of per capita income after controlling for the quality of institutions.

Abstract:
This paper provides an early diagnosis of the financial crisis in Asia, focusing on the empirical record in the lead-up to the crisis. The main goal is to emphasize the role of financial panic as an essential element of the Asian crisis. At the core of the crisis were large-scale foreign capital inflows into financial systems that became vulnerable to panic. The paper finds that while there were significant underlying problems and weak fundamentals besetting the Asian economies at both a macroeconomic and a microeconomic level, the imbalances were not severe enough to warrant a financial crisis of the magnitude that took place in the latter half of 1997. A combination of panic on the part of the international investment community, policy mistakes at the onset of the crisis by Asian governments, and poorly designed international rescue programs turned the withdrawal of foreign capital into a full-fledged financial panic, and deepened the crisis more than was either necessary or inevitable.

Abstract:
In the first quarter of 1995 Mexico found itself in the grip of an intense financial panic. Foreign investors fled Mexico despite very high interest rates on Mexican securities, an undervalued currency, and financial indicators that pointed to long-term solvency. The fundamental conditions of the Mexican economy cannot account for the entire crisis. The crisis was due to unexpected shocks that occurred in 1994, and the inadequate policy response to those shocks. In the aftermath of the March assassination the exchange rate experienced a nominal devaluation of around 10 percent and interest rates increased by around 7 percentage points. However, the capital outflow continued. The policy response to this was to maintain the exchange rate rule, and to prevent further increases in interest rates by expanding domestic credit and by converting short-term peso- denominated government liabilities (Cetes) falling due into dollar- denominated bonds (Tesobonos). A fall in international reserves and an increase in short-term dollar-denominated debt resulted. The government simply ended up illiquid, and therefore financially vulnerable. Illiquidity exposed Mexico to a self-fulfilling panic.

Abstract:
This paper responds to findings by Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2000) that suggest weak institutions, but not physical geography and correlates like disease burden, explain current variation in levels of economic development across former colonies. Using similar data and expanding the sample of countries analyzed, our regression analysis shows that both institutions and geographically-related variables such as malaria incidence or life expectancy at birth are strongly linked to gross national product per capita. We argue that the evidence presented in Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson is likely limited by the inherently small sample of ex-colonies and the limited geographic dispersion of those countries.

Abstract:
Many of the crucial debates in development economics are encapsulated in the question of economic convergence. Is there a tendency for the poorer countries to grow more rapidly than the richer countries, and thereby to converge in living standards? Or instead, are there tendencies for the "rich to get richer, and the poor to get poorer," so that the gap between rich and poor nations tends to widen over time?

economic convergence, economic policy

Abstract:
Many of the crucial debates in development economics are encapsulated in the question of economic convergence. Is there a tendency for the poorer countries to grow more rapidly than the richer countries, and thereby to converge in living standards? Some recent research on endogenous growth has emphasized increasing returns as a possible reason not to expect convergence. Other research has suggested that convergence may be achieved only after poor countries attain a threshold level of income or human capital. This paper presents evidence that a sufficient condition for higher-than-average growth of poorer countries, and therefore convergence, is that poorer countries follow reasonably efficient economic policies, mainly open trade and protection of private property rights.

Abstract:
Broadly speaking, two schools of thought have emerged to interpret China's rapid growth since 1978:the experimentalist school and the convergence school. The experimentalist school attributes China's successes to the evolutionary, experimental, and incremental nature of China's reforms. Specifically, the resulting non-capitalist institutions are said to be successful in (a) agri- culture where land is not owned by the farmers; (b) township and village en- terprises (TVEs) which are owned collectively by rural communities; and (c) state owned enterprises (SOEs) where increased competition and increased wage incentive, not privatization, have been emphasized. The convergence school holds that China's successes are the result of its institutions being allowed to converge with those of non-socialist market economies, and that China's economic structure at the start of reforms is a major reason for the fast growth. China had a high population density heavily concentrated in low-wage agriculture which was favorable for labor-intensive export-led growth in other parts of East Asia. The convergence school also holds that China's gradualism results mainly from a lack of consensus over the proper course, with power divided between market reformers and old-style socialists; and that the 'inno- ative economic circumstances. Perhaps the best test of the two approaches is whether China's policy choices are in fact leading to institutions harmonized with normal market economies or to more distinctive innovations. The recent policy trend has been towards institutional harmonization rather than institutional innovation, suggesting that the government accepts that the ingredients for a dynamic market economy are already well-known.

Abstract:
Two schools of thought have emerged to interpret China's rapid growth. The experimentalist school attributes the successes to incremental experimentation, and claims that resulting non-capitalist institutions have been successful in agriculture where land is not owned by the farmers; in township and village enterprises which are owned collectively by rural communities; and in state owned enterprises where increased competition and not privatization has been emphasized.The convergence school holds that China's successes comes from its institutions being allowed to converge with those of non-socialist economies, and that China's economic structure at the start of reforms is a major explanation for the rapid growth. China's gradualism and "innovative" non- capitalist institutions are responses to its political circumstances.Interestingly, China's recent policy trend is toward institutional harmonization rather than institutional innovation, suggesting that the government accepts that the ingredients for a dynamic market economy are already well- known.

Abstract:
This paper raises several cautionary notes regarding high-conditionality lending by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in the context of international debt crisis. It is argued that the role for high-conditionality lending is more restricted than generally believed, because enforcement of conditionality is rather weak. Moreover, the incentives for a country to abide by conditionality terms are also likely to be reduced by a large overhang of external indebtedness. Given the limited ability to enforce conditionality agreements, modesty and realism should be a cornerstone of each program. The experience with conditionality suggests two major lessons for the design of high-conditionality lending. First, debt forgiveness rather than mere debt rescheduling may increase a debtor country's compliance with conditionality, and thereby increase the actual stream of repayments by the indebted countries. Second, given the complexity of the needed adjustments, and the difficulty of enforcing conditionality agreements, programs are most likely to be successful when macroeconomic stabilization is given priority over large-scale liberalization.

Abstract:
Many studies of regional disparity in China have focused on the preferential policies received by the coastal provinces. We decomposed the location dummies in provincial growth regressions to obtain estimates of the effects of geography and policy on provincial growth rates in 1996-99. Their respective contributions in percentage points were 2.5 and 3.5 for the province-level metropolises, 0.6 and 2.3 for the northeastern provinces, 2.8 and 2.8 for the coastal provinces, 2.0 and 1.6 for the central provinces, 0 and 1.6 for the northwestern provinces, and 0.1 and 1.8 for the southwestern provinces. Because the so-called preferential policies are largely deregulation policies that have allowed coastal Chinese provinces to integrate into the international economy, it is far superior to reduce regional disparity by extending these deregulation policies to the interior provinces than by re-regulating the coastal provinces. Two additional inhibitions to income convergence are the household registration system, which makes the movement of the rural poor to prosperous areas illegal, and the monopoly state bank system that, because of its bureaucratic nature, disburses most of its funds to its large traditional customers, few of whom are located in the western provinces. Improving infrastructure to overcome geographic barriers is fundamental to increasing western growth, but increasing human capital formation (education and medical care) is also crucial because only it can come up with new better ideas to solve centuries-old problems like unbalanced growth.

Abstract:
Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the Bolivian economy. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the political economy of macroeconomic policymaking in Bolivia since the 1952 Revolution. Great stress is put on the weakness of fiscal institutions in the face of heavy social and sectoral demands. Chapter 3 highlights some of the main directions of development policy during 1952-85, especially involving public investment spending and trade policy. In chapter 4 we consider important characteristics of Bolivia`s international trade, focusing both on structural features (e.g., the heavy dependence on a small number of primary commodities), as well as policy choices. Chapter 5 describes the process of foreign debt accumulation, which was the counterpart of the large budget deficits of the public sector in the 1970s and early 1980s. Chapter 6 lays out the dynamics of the hyperinflation during 1982-85, focusing on the complex causal links among the budget deficit, the money supply, the exchange rate, and the price level. In chapter 7 we detail the process of stabilization since 1985 and discuss some of the general lessons about ending high inflation that might be applied to other economies in the region. Chapter 8 describes the novel arrangements that Bolivia has negotiated in order to escape the severe overhang of external debt. In the concluding chapter 9, we discuss briefly the challenges facing Bolivia in the future, once stabilization has been accomplished.

Abstract:
This paper focuses on the management of fiscal deficits and the public debt in the industrial democracies. Given the large deficits in many OECD countries in recent years, and the resulting sharp rise in the public debt, it is important to determine the economic and political forces leading to such large deficits. We find that only partial support for the "equilibrium approach to fiscal policy", which assumes that tax rates are set over time in order to minimize the excess burden of taxation. Tax rates do not seem to be smoothed, and budget deficits in many countries in recent years appear to be too large to be explained by appeal to transitory increases in government spending. We suggest that in several countries the slow rate at which the post-'73 fiscal deficits were reduced resulted from the difficulties of political management in coalition governments. There is a clear tendency for larger deficits in countries characterized by a short average tenure of government and by the presence of many political parties in a ruling coalition.

Abstract:
This paper provides a formal analysis of the current account balance in a dynamic model with optimizing agents. Two analytical ideas are stressed. First, an economy's current account balance depends as much on fixture economic trends as on the current economic environment. A shift in fiscal policy, for example, will have one effect on the current account if it is perceived to be temporary and another if it is seen to be permanent. Second, temporary disturbances in the economy have permanent effects, by altering the entire future path of the economy's international indebtedness.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper tests the existence and the extent of a politically induced business cycle in the U.S. in the post-World War II period. The cycle described in this paper is different from the traditional "political business cycle" of Nordhaus. It is based on a systematic difference between the monetary policies of the two parties in a model with labor contracts. From an explicit optimization problem we derive a system of equations for output and money growth. Then we successfully test the non-linear restriction imposed by the theory on the parameters of the system of equations. We cannot reject the hypothesis that money growth has been systematically different under the two types of administration and that this difference contributes to explain output fluctuations.

Abstract:
We argue that allowing for the possibility of a self-fulfilling panic helps in understanding several features of the recent Mexican crisis. Self-fulfilling expectations became decisive in generating a panic only after the government ran down gross reserves and ran up short-term dollar debt. We present a simple model to explain how and why multiple equilibria can occur for some levels of reserves or debt, but not for others. Lastly, we argue that the imperfect credibility of Mexican exchange rate policy made it advisable to follow more contractionary fiscal and monetary policies in 1994. Our model formalizes the reasons why this is so.

Abstract:
The current crisis in international lending points up a lesson re-learned several times in the past 150 years: the international loan markets function very differently from the textbook model of competitive lending. This paper discusses various extensions of the basic model.First, we amend the textbook model to show how limitations on a government`staxing authority may greatly affect its optimal borrowing strategy.Second, we explore the implications of adebtor country`s option to repudiate debt.Third, we show that efficient lending may require collective actions by bank syndicates, and that a breakdown in collective action can result in serious inefficiencies and even financial panics.

Abstract:
This paper presents a theoretical model to describe the effects of default risk on international lending to LDC sovereign borrowers. The threat of defaults in international lending is shown to give rise to many characteristics of the syndicated loan market: (1) quantity rationing of loans; (2) LDC policies designed to enhance creditworthiness; (3) prevalence of short maturities on international loans; and (4) a prevalence of bank lending relative to bond-market lending

Abstract:
We analyze the pattern of growth of a nation which borrows abroad and which has the option of repudiating its foreign debt. We show that the equilibrium strategy of competitive lenders is to make the growth of the foreign debt contingent on the growth of the borrowing country. We give a closed-form solution to a linear version of our model. The economy, in that case, follows a two-stage pattern of growth. During the first stage, the debt grows more rapidly than the economy. During the second stage, both the debt and the economy grow at the same rate, and more slowly than in the first stage. During this second stage, the total interest falling due on the debt is never entirely repaid; only an amount proportional to the difference of the rate of interest and the rate of growth of the economy is repaid each period.

Abstract:
Several recent studies have examined the tendency of regions within a nation to exhibit long-term convergence in per capita income levels. Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1991, 1992, 1995) have found a tendency towards convergence among the U.S. states, among Japanese prefectures, and among regions within Western Europe. In this paper we examine the tendency towards convergence among the provinces of China during the period 1952-1993. We find that real income convergence of provinces in China has been a relatively recent phenomenon, emerging strongly only since the reform period began in 1978. During the initial phase of central planning, 1952-1965, there is some evidence for convergence, but it is weak and sensitive to the time period being analyzed. During the cultural revolution, 1965- 1978, there is strong evidence of divergence rather than convergence. We find strong evidence for convergence during the reform period is associated with rural reforms, and is especially strong within the coastal regions where there has been liberalization of international trade and investment flows. However, since 1990 regional incomes have begun to diverge. Such a divergence is entirely explained by the variance between the coastal and interior provinces, rather than increase in variance within each other. Therefore, it seems that China is now on a dual track, with a prosperous and fast growing coastal region and a poor interior growing at a lower rate.

Abstract:
The search for "growth-oriented adjustment programs" reflects a widespread malaise concerning IMF stabilization programs in countries suffering from external debt crises. A new orthodoxy is emerging from this search, which links recovery in the debtor countries to a shift to "outward-oriented" development, based on trade liberalization. This paper describes many important limitations of this new orthodoxy. The heavy emphasis on liberalization is a historical, and indeed runs contrary to the experiences of the successful East Asian economies. It also distracts attention from more pressing needs of the debtor economies.

Abstract:
The paper introduces differences in production and transaction conditions between countries into a model of monopolistic competition. It applies inframarginal analysis to show that, as transaction conditions are improved, the general equilibrium may jump discontinuously across different patterns of trade and economic development. A country may export a good in which it has exogenous comparative disadvantage if its endogenous comparative advantage dominates this disadvantage. Countries will choose a trade and development pattern to utilize their net exogenous and endogenous comparative advantages in production as well as in transactions.

Abstract:
This paper estimates the number of people at risk of contracting malaria in Africa using GIS methods and the disease's epidemiologic characteristics. It then estimates yearly costs of covering the population at risk with the package of interventions (differing by level of malaria endemicity and differing for rural and urban populations) for malaria as recommended by the UN Millennium Project. These projected costs are calculated assuming a ramp-up of coverage to full coverage by 2008, and then projected out through 2015 to give a year-by-year cost of meeting the Millennium Development Goal for reducing the burden of malaria by 75% We conclude that the cost of comprehensive malaria control for Africa is US$3.0 billion per year on average, or around US$4.02 per African at risk.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Much of Africa has not yet gone through a demographic transition to reduced mortality and fertility rates. The fact that the continent's countries remain mired in a Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high fertility, and rapid population growth (with an accompanying state of chronic extreme poverty) has been attributed to many factors ranging from the status of women, pro-natalist policies, poverty itself, and social institutions. There remains, however, a large degree of uncertainty among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors on a comparative or historical basis. Moreover, econometric estimation is complicated by endogeneity among fertility and other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation (particularly of the effect of the child mortality variable) by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission and in agricultural productivity through the staggered introduction of Green Revolution, high-yield seed varieties. Results show that child mortality (proxied by infant mortality) is by far the most important factor among those explaining aggregate total fertility rates, followed by farm productivity. Female literacy (or schooling) and aggregate income do not seem to matter as much, comparatively.

Abstract:
The major theme of this paper is that the commercial banks have weathered the debt crisis, while many debtor countries remain in economic paralysis or worse. There is a growing consensus that much of the LDC debt will not be fully serviced in the future, and that consensus is reflected in at least two ways: in the discounts observed in the secondary market prices for LDC debt, and in the discounts in the stock market pricing of banks with exposure in the LDCs.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper develops a framework for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy on the real exchange rate. The short-run impact of various types of fiscal measures are considered as well as the dynamics of adjustment to long-run steady states. The analysis and related simulations suggest that the effect of fiscal policy changes on the real exchange rate can vary widely and will depend closely on a number of structural features, including the degree of asset substitutability,the composition of government spending, and the initial size of the public debt and net external position.

Abstract:
This paper examines the patterns of defaults, renegotiations, and final settlements on foreign borrowing of several Latin American governments in the interwar period. One goal of the paper is to provide a detailed historical account of the borrowing and renegotiation experience of five Latin borrowers (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, and Peru). Another goal is to provide a quantitative assessment of the amount of debt relief that was implicit in the negotiated settlements of the defaults that were reached in the 1930s and 1940s. In general, the pattern of default and renegotiation resulted in substantial, though not complete, debt relief, in the sense of reducing the present value of debt repayments from the sovereign borrower to the bondholders.

Abstract:
The sustained rise in German unemployment since 1973 poses a problem of critical importance for the world economy. Fewer than two decades ago, Germany boasted an average unemployment rate of under 1% and imported labor to relieve chronic labor shortages. By the mid-1980s, unemployment had risen to over 8 percent of the labor force. This paper investigates some of the reasons for the secular rise in unemployment. We find that while deficient aggregate demand can probably explain some of the current joblessness, the secular rise in unemployment has consisted primarily of an increase in the equilibrium rate of unemployment. We also find little evidence that this increase is due to changes in frictional unemployment. Rather, after reviewing institutional details of the labor market in Germany, we identify various impediments to the kinds of structural adjustments that have operated to maintain a fairly constant equilibrium rate of unemployment in the United States.

Abstract:
During the past five years, there has been an important international debate over the style of market reforms in the former centrally planned economies of East Asia, Eastern Europe, and the former Soviet Union. The economic performance across regions, summarized in Table 1, could not be more disparate, with rapid economic growth and low inflation in the East Asia transition economies, compared with sharp declines in GDP and high inflation in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (hereafter combined as EEFSU). This disparity has given rise to a plethora of theories about the underlying differences in the two regions, ranging over cultural, political, and economic factors.

Eastern Europe, reforms, East Asia

Abstract:
During the past five years, there has been an important debate over the differing styles of market reforms in the formerly planned economies in East Asia versus Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EEFSU). This paper puts forward three related propositions. First, the rapid growth of East Asia, compared with economic contraction in EEFSU, reflects differences in economic structure and initial conditions, rather than differences in economic policymaking. Second, East Asian gradualism could not, and did not, work in EEFSU. Third, EEFSU continues to face serious problems with an overextended welfare state inherited from the socialist period.

Abstract:
The main goal of this paper is to estimate to what extent the federal government of the United States insures member states against regional income shocks. We find that a one dollar reduction in a region's per capita personal income triggers a decrease in federal taxes of about 34 cents and an increase in federal transfers of about 6 cents. Hence, the final reduction in disposable per capita income is on the order of 60 cents. That is, between one third and one half of the initial shock is absorbed by the federal government.

The much larger reaction of taxes than transfers to these regional imbalances reflects the fact that the main mechanism at work is the federal income tax system which in turn means that the stabilization process is automatic rather than specifically designed each time there is a cyclical movement in income.

Some economists may want to argue that this regional insurance scheme provided by the federal government is an important reason why the system of fixed exchange rates that exists within the United States today has survived without major problems. Under this view, the creation of a European Central Bank that issues unified european currency without the simultaneous introduction (or expansion) of a fiscal federalist system could put the project at risk.

Rough calculations of the impact of the existing european tax system on regional income suggests that a one dollar shock to regional GDP will reduce tax payments to the EEC government by half a cent!. Hence, the current European tax system has a long way to go before it reaches the 34 cents of the U.S. Federal Government.

Abstract:
Recent analyses of the gains to policy coordination have focussed on the strategic aspects of macroeconomic policy making in a static setting. A major theme is that noncooperative policy making is likely to be Pareto inefficient because of the presence of beggar-thy-neighbor policies. This paper extends the analysis to a dynamic setting, thereby introducing three important points of realism to the static game. First, the payoffs to beggar-thy-neighbor policies look very different in one-period and multiperiod games, and thus so do the gains to coordination. Second, we show that policy coordination may reduce economic welfare if governments are nyopic in their policy making, as is sometimes claimed. Third, governments act under a fundamental constraint that they cannot bind the actions of later governments, and we investigate how this constraint alters the gains to policy coordination.

Abstract:
This paper addresses the question of external borrowing from the perspective of the borrowing country. The first section sketches a formal framework for optimal borrowing by a developing country, as seen from the planner`s point of view. The next three sections use this framework for the development of three important limits on external borrowing: the problem of solvency, the problem of liquidity and the problem created by the possibility of repudiation. The fifth section relates external borrowing to macroeconomic management of the borrowing country, and the sixth section pulls together the many factors that suggest that external debt of a country should be subject to central management or at least surveillance. Following that, we offer some guidelines for limits to the magnitude of external debt, and then discuss the character or mix of external debt. In an appendix, we present various simulation exercises for optimal debt management in a discrete-time infinite-horizon setting.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper offers a theoretical framework for studying the interactions of energy prices and economic growth. The incorporation of energy prices and quantities in a macroeconomic setting focuses on (1) the aggregate technology; (2) the interdependence of energy producers and consumers in the world economy; and (3) the asset markets as the channel through which energy price changes affect output and capital accumulation. While several existing studies consider aspects of these issues, none provides a synthesis. In this analysis, a theoretically sound model of an oil price increase in the world economy is presented, carefully treating topics (1) - (3). The model is solved with computer simulation, as it is far too complex to yield analytical solutions.

Abstract:
In this paper we explore in detail the various ways by which the introduction of intermediate imports affects the comparative statics and the dynamics of adjustment in an open economy. The importance of integrating the role of intermediate imports into a theory of macro-economic adjustment derives from the particular set of events that have affected the industrial economies in the 1970`s -- the unprecedented rise in raw materials prices, in particular the oil price shock, and the concomitant inflation and widespread unemployment. The analysis lays out in detail the separate workings of the commodity labor and exchange rate markets, under various adjustment mechanisms, with the objective of obtaining empirically quantifiable hypotheses. An empirical study based on the present formulation has been prepared by the authors (see Bruno and Sachs (1979) ) .

Abstract:
Discontent with the functioning of the world monetary system has led to many proposals for international monetary reform. These proposals range from enhanced consultations under the current regime of floating exchange rates to a regime of fixed exchange rates, as proposed by Ronald McKinnon. In this paper we examine the implications of several alternative monetary arrangements for fiscal policy in the world economy. In particular we focus upon two issues. The first is the effects of alternative monetary arrangements on the international transmission of fiscal policy. The second is the implications of the alternative regimes for strategic aspects of fiscal policymaking.

As is generally the case in the discussion of exchange regimes we find that the choice of the monetary system is crucially dependent upon the source and nature of the shocks hitting the world economy. In this paper we show that the monetary regime also has important implications for the transmission of fiscal policy in the world economy and for the nature of the strategic games played by fiscal authorities. Rigid rules of the game, as under fixed exchange rates, do not necessarily eliminate the inefficient equilibria that can occur when fiscal authorities behave non-cooperatively.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper illustrates the role for macroeconomic policy coordination when interdependent economies are pursuing disinflationary policies. Under flexible exchangerates, policy makers have an incentive to reduce inflation by pursuing contractionary policies that yield a currency appreciation. In a Nash, perfect foresight equilibrium,policy authorities in the model pursue contractionary policies to achieve currency appreciation, but these attempts cancel out, with the result that all countries end up pursuing excessively contractionary policies (relative to asymmetric Pareto optimum). The paper presents these resultsin a two-country, infinite-horizon difference game.

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No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper presents an intertemporal disequilibrium model with rational expectations, i.e. a model in which agents anticipate the future rationally, but in which prices and wages may not adjust fast enough to maintain continuous market clearing. Therefore, optimizing firms and households base their intertemporal plans on anticipations of both future quantity constraints and future prices. Such a model shows clearly that the effect of a policy depends not only on its current values but its anticipated path, After a presentation of the model and its basic dynamics, we therefore consider the effects of various paths of fiscal policy on the economy.

Abstract:
The behavior of real wages has complicated macroeconomic policy in the industrialized world during the 1970s. Many commentators have discussed the extraordinary increase in wage inflation in Europe and Japan at the end of the last decade. Few have noted that the nominal wage gains resulted in remarkable increased in real wages. The five large economies outside North America in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had rapid growth of real hourly compensation in 1969-73, along with high rates of increase of nominal compensation. In most large OECD economies, real wages in the late 1960s grew faster than productivity, so that the distribution of income shifted toward labor, while the rate of return on capital was substantially reduced.

Abstract:
In this paper, the authors describe a simulation model for analyzing the effects of macroeconomic policies in the OECD on global macroeconomic equilibrium. Particular attention is paid to the effects on developing countries of alternative mixes of monetary and fiscal policies in the OECD.Though the model is quite small, it has several properties which make it attractive for policy analysis. First, the important stock-flow relationships and intertemporal budget constraints are carefully observed, so that the modelis useful for short-run and long-run analysis. Budget deficits, for example,cumulate into a stock of public debt which must be serviced, while current account deficits cumulate into a stock of foreign debt. Second, the asset markets are forward looking, so that the exchange rate is conditioned by the entire future path of policies rather than by a set of short-run expectations. Third, the model is amenable to policy optimization exercises, and in particular can be used to study the effects of policy coordination versus non-coordination in the OECD, on global macroeconomic equilibrium.

Abstract:
Policy discussions in Japan have increasingly recognized the important role of land values and land-use patterns in Japanese macroeconomic adjustment. In Japan in recent years, land wealth constitutes more than half of financial wealth, a proportion that is much higher than in the United States and other industrialized economies. Consequently, shifts in land-use patterns can have important effects on Japanese savings and investment patterns, and thereby on the Japanese trade balance and current account. This papers studies the implications of land-use policies for the Japanese macroeconomy using both a theoretical model and a multi- sectoral dynamic simulation model.

Abstract:
The effect on commercial banks of exposure to large amounts of developing country debt has been a topic of increasing concern in recent years. Fear of default on the part of the debtor countries has led to fears for the solvency of the creditor banks since in many cases the total of outstanding exposure to risky debtors exceeds the entire capital base of the banks involved. The paper presents a first effort towards measuring the effects of LDC debt exposure on the market value of large commercial value banks in the United States. Our results indicate that exposure to developing country debt has exerted a measurable and significant negative effect on the ratio of market to book value for these banks.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes saving and capital accumulation in a two-good growth model of two market economies in which economic agents optimize with perfect foresight. The goal is to present a model in which short-run dynamics and the steady-state are soundly integrated. We stress the importance of asset markets as the linkage that transmits disturbances both internationally and intertemporally. While many components of the model described below can be found in the literature on optimal consumption, investment and international growth models, we provide a consistent synthesis. Our framework permits the analysis of structural adjustment in the global economy, and the dynamic effects of a wide range of public policies.

Abstract:
This paper investigates the nature of balance of payments crises in regimes with capital controls. It extends earlier work on capital controls by assuming that households manage their consumption and asset portfolios to maximize intertemporal utility. Our main result is that capital controls are effective in delaying, but not preventing, a breakdown of a fixed exchange rate regime in the presence of money-financed fiscal deficits.

Abstract:
The persistence of inflation during periods of high unemployment poses the central problem for macroeconomic policy in coming years. The extent of success in reducing both inflation and unemployment will depend strongly on the short-run responsiveness of wage inflation to unemployment and excess capacity. This paper studies changes in the cyclical responsiveness of inflation from 1890-1976, and concludes that a given shortfall in production relative to potential now "buys" a smaller reduction in the rate of inflation than in the past. From 1890-1929, a one percent decline in industrial production reduced inflation about .45%; for 1950-1976, the same output decline is estimated to slow inflation only about .l%. The analysis makes use of two methods to study the changing cyclical behavior of inflation. Following an innovative study by Cagan, calculations are made for wage and price inflation before and after eighteen business cycle peaks. While inflation slows in almost every recession, the declines in inflation in recent years are less pronounced than earlier, even when controlling for business cycle severity. In a second section of the study, econometric evidence is provided that also strongly supports the hypothesis of increasing rigidity of wage and price Inflation over the business cycle. In the last section of the paper, some possible reasons are cited for the declining responsiveness of inflation to unemployment. Ironically, successful macroeconomic policy might be in part responsible. To the extent that activist macroeconomic policy breaks the link between current unemployment and expectations of future unemployment, it is argued, unemployment today will not induce wage cuts in contracts for future periods. Also, the tremendous increase in duration and coverage of collective bargaining agreements is suggested as an important force behind the shifting behavior of wages and prices during the period of study.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

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No abstract is available for this paper.

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No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Recent macroeconomic models of developing countries have emphasized the possibility of contactionary devaluations, stressing that domestic aggregate demand is likely to be reduced by the devaluations while aggregate supply may respond only slowly to the change in relative prices brought about by the devaluation. These results have been obtained in static models. In this paper we add wage and export-sector dynamics to the models of contractionary devaluation, and show that the effects which produce contractionary devaluations in the short term can produce limit cycles in the long run. The economy never returns to long-run equilibrium following a devaluation, but rather moves with fixed periodicity through successive phases of boom and bust.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper describes ways that the CEEs can speed their convergence with the EU by emulating the growth strategies of the very fast growing economies. In Section II, we introduce the VFGEs, and discuss some of the sources of their superior growth performance. In Section III, we demonstrate the role of key policy variables in the context of cross-country growth equations. In Section IV, we examine how the CEEs can emulate key aspects of the economic policies of the VFGEs, in order to raise their growth in the coming years.

economic transition, Central Eastern Europe, economic growth

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This study investigates the geographic effects on regional economic growth in China under market reforms. We develop a model for the regional growth pattern of the Chinese economy during the period, characterized by foreign direct investment (FDI) and mobilization of rural surplus labor. The FDI and labor migration are directed by the differentials in the expected returns from the capital investment and in the wage rate. The differentials are, to a large extent, explained by geographic factors. In the context of market reforms and the open door policy, the spatial and topographic advantages of the coastal provinces are realized. As a result, the returns to the capital investment in the coastal provinces are higher than in the rest of the country, thus attracting more FDI and migrant labor into the region and causing the growth disparity. Our empirical test supports this hypothesis. It finds that geographic factors are statistically significant in explaining the regional disparity in China. This disparity is mainly a coast versus non-coast gap.

regional diversity, geography, China

Abstract:
U.S. economic activity is overwhelmingly concentrated at its ocean and Great Lakes coasts, reflecting a large contribution from coastal proximity to productivity and quality of life. Extensively controlling for correlated natural attributes and initial conditions decisively rejects that the coastal concentration of economic activity is spurious or just derives from historical forces long since dissipated. Measuring proximity based on coastal attributes that contribute to either productivity or quality of life, but not to both, suggests that the coastal concentration derives primarily from a productivity effect but also, increasingly, from a quality-of-life effect.

Economic Growth, Population Density, Productivity, Quality of Life

Abstract:
This paper constructs an indicator for the current level of international competitiveness of countries in transition. We find that Hungary is the most competitive country in the group while Turkmenistan is the least. Competitiveness measurement, in our view, is a way to use uniform criteria to gauge the extent to which a country makes use of various levers to promote sustained improvements in its well-being. We construct our measure of competitiveness drawing upon both the popular literature on competitiveness as well as modern economic theory. The approach acknowledges the importance of synergies between firms, markets, and government and, above all, the crucial role of institutions. Our choice of variables stresses the special characteristics of transition countries. By bringing to bear all the existing data on these countries, together with new survey data collected for the purpose, we are able to go beyond the mere ranking of countries to decompose the sources of competitiveness into their constituent parts. This allows policy makers to identify areas where their countries are lagging behind relative to other countries in their region. Our indicator is also compatible with the Global Competitiveness Report series categories, thus allowing us to benchmark transition countries against the rest of the world.

competitiveness, transition, institutions, indicator construction

Abstract:
This paper shows that a 2 x 2 Ricardian model has a unique general equilibrium, and the comparative statics of the equilibrium involve discontinuous jumps. If partial division of labor occurs in equilibrium, the country producing both goods would impose a tariff, whereas the country producing a single good would prefer unilateral free trade. If complete division of labor occurs in equilibrium, both countries would negotiate to achieve free trade. In a model with three countries, the country which does not have a comparative advantage relative to the other two countries and/or which has low transaction efficiency may be excluded from trade.