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Abstract:
As applied to the behavior of homeowners with mortgages, option theory predicts that mortgage prepayment or default will be exercised if the call or put option is in the money by some specific amount. Our analysis: tests the extent to which the option approach can explain default and prepayment behavior; evaluates the practical importance of modeling both options simultaneously; and models the unobserved heterogeneity of borrowers in the home mortgage market. The paper presents a unified model of the competing risks of mortgage termination by prepayment and default, considering the two hazards as dependent competing risks which are estimated jointly. It also accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity among borrowers, and estimates the unobserved heterogeneity simultaneously with the parameters and baseline hazards associated with prepayment and default functions. Our results show that the option model, in its most straightforward version, does a good job of explaining default and prepayment; but it is not enough by itself. The simultaneity of the options is very important empirically in explaining behavior. The results also show that there exists significant heterogeneity among mortgage borrowers. Ignoring this heterogeneity results in serious errors in estimating the prepayment behavior of homeowners.

Abstract:
As applied to the behavior of homeowners with mortgages, option theory predicts that mortgage prepayment or default will be exercised if the call or put option is in the money by some specific amount. Our analysis: tests the extent to which the option approach can explain default and prepayment behavior; evaluates the practical importance of modeling both options simultaneously; and models the unobserved heterogeneity of borrowers in the home mortgage market. The paper presents a unified model of the competing risks of mortgage termination by prepayment and default, considering the two hazards as dependent competing risks which are estimated jointly. It also accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity among borrowers, and estimates the unobserved heterogeneity simultaneously with the parameters and baseline hazards associated with prepayment and default functions.

Our results show that the option model, in its most straightforward version, does a good job of explaining default and prepayment; but it is not enough by itself. The simultaneity of the options is very important empirically in explaining behavior. The results also show that there exists significant heterogeneity among mortgage borrowers. Ignoring this heterogeneity results in serious errors in estimating the prepayment behavior of homeowners.

Abstract:
We examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We rely upon a panel of 14 countries observed annually for various periods during the past 25 years and a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the 1980s and 1990s. We impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regressions relating consumption to income and wealth measures, finding a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption.

Consumption, Nonfinancial Wealth, Housing Market, Real Estate

Abstract:
Mortgage terminations arise because borrowers exercise options. This paper investigates the apparently irrational behavior of those borrowers who do not terminate their mortgages even when the exercise value of the option is deeply in the money.

We develop an option-based empirical model to analyze this phenomenon -- the behavior of irrational "woodheads." Of course we do not observe "woodheads" explicitly in any body of data. Instead, we analyze the correlates of unobserved heterogeneity within a large sample of mortgage holders. We develop an error correction maximum likelihood (ECML) estimator using martingale transforms to estimate the competing risks of mortgage prepayment and default, recognizing unobserved heterogeneity which is due in part to the behavior of "woodheads." The extended model is clearly superior to alternatives on statistical grounds.

We then analyze the economic implications of this more powerful model. We analyze the predictions of the model for the valuation and pricing of mortgage pools and mortgage-backed securities. Based upon an extensive Monte Carlo simulation, we find that the ECML model yields prices for seasoned mortgage pools that deviate by 0.3 to almost 3.0 percent from more primitive estimates.

The results indicate the empirical importance of heterogeneity and the implications of non-optimizing behavior for the valuation and pricing of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities.

Mortgage prepayment, heterogeneity, mortgage pricing, behavioral finance, martingale transform

Abstract:
We examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We rely upon a panel of 14 countries observed annually for various periods during the past 25 years and a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the 1980s and 1990s. We impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regressions relating consumption to income and wealth measures, finding a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption.

Abstract:
Option theory predicts that mortgage default or prepayment will be exercised if the call or put option is "in the money." We extend our analysis to commercial mortgages using data from commercial mortgage-backed securities. The paper presents a model of the competing risks of mortgage termination (default and prepayment) using data from commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals.

Our results show that the option model explains both default and prepayment for commercial mortgages. We find that loan specific variables (such as loan-to-value ratio, debt service coverage ratio, loan-rate spread and prepayment prevention) are important explanatory variables for both default and prepayment. We also find that default and prepayment vary rather dramatically across regions of the country; given that regional economies do not move in perfect lock-step, we would expect there to be cross-sectional variation in default rates. However, the degree of variation across regions in terms of prepayments is not as predictable.

Abstract:
Over thirty years ago, researchers raised the possibility of an important link between transportation, jobs and prospects for the poor. Decentralized employment, centralized minorities and poor, and inadequate transportation links in between were the context of the urban riots of the 1960's and posited as a causal factor by researchers. Given federal mandates for large-scale movement of welfare recipients into jobs, whether--and to what extent--access affects employment is still of national importance. This paper reviews developments in both the spatial context and our understanding of its importance over the past thirty years.


Based primarily on Census data, we present evidence on changes in the spatial conditions facing the poor in terms of job access, transportation access, and commuting patterns. The trends suggest that some adjustments have alleviated while others heightened the mismatch. The overall picture of spatial isolation persists. We also review, rather selectively, literature on the importance of such access in determining employment outcomes. Our reading of the mixed findings is that we do have credible evidence that access matters, perhaps quite a bit, particularly for youth. Finally, we also review some of the transportation policy attempts to address this issue. From the policy perspective, however, the empirical evidence consistently shows that human capital and labor market conditions play a much more sizable role than does transportation per se.

Abstract:
It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers' large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the U.S., a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agency (The U.S. Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.

repeat sales index, index revision, house price risk, house price derivative

Abstract:
It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers' large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the U.S., a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agency (The U.S. Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.

Repeat sales index, index revision, house price risk, house price derivatives

Abstract:
Today, no economist studying the spatial economy of urban areas would ignore the effects of race on housing markets and labor market opportunities, but this was not always the case. Through what can be seen as a consistent and integrated research plan, John Kain developed many central ideas of urban economics but, more importantly, legitimized and encouraged scholarly consideration of the geography of racial opportunities. His provocative (and prescient) study of the linkage between housing segregation and the labor market opportunities of Blacks was a natural outgrowth of his prior work on employment decentralization and housing constraints on Black households. His more recent program of research on school outcomes employing detailed administrative data was an extension of the same empirical interest in how the economic opportunities of minority households vary with location. This paper identifies the influence of John Kain's ideas on different areas of research and suggests that his scientific work was thoroughly interrelated.

Abstract:
Today, no economist studying the spatial economy of urban areas would ignore the effects of race on housing markets and labor market opportunities, but this was not always the case. Through what can be seen as a consistent and integrated research plan, John Kain developed many central ideas of urban economics but, more importantly, legitimized and encouraged scholarly consideration of the geography of racial opportunities. His provocative (and prescient) study of the linkage between housing segregation and the labor market opportunities of Blacks was a natural outgrowth of his prior work on employment decentralization and housing constraints on Black households. His more recent program of research on school outcomes employing detailed administrative data was an extension of the same empirical interest in how the economic opportunities of minority households vary with location. This paper identifies the influence of John Kain's ideas on different areas of research and suggests that his scientific work was thoroughly interrelated.

Abstract:
Theories about the importance of space in urban labor markets have emphasized the role of employment access, on the one hand, and neighborhood composition, on the other hand, in affecting employment outcomes. This paper presents an empirical analysis which considers both of these factors, together with individual human capital characteristics and household attributes in affecting youth employment. The analysis is based upon an unusually rich sample of micro data on youth in four New Jersey metropolitan areas. The empirical analysis is based on a sample of some 18,000 at home youth, matched to detailed census tract demographic information and specially constructed measures of employment access. The research includes a comparison of the importance of neighborhood access in affecting youth employment when individual and household attributes are also measured. The results demonstrate the overall importance of these spatial factors (particularly neighborhood composition) in affecting youth employment in urban areas.

Abstract:
The Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last September spells the end of an experiment in the public-private hybrid known as the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE). This paper documents the subsidies provided to the enterprises and the public and private benefits generated. The public benefits included somewhat reduced interest rates for borrowers receiving conforming mortgages. The public subsidies allowed the firms to use the implicit guarantee of their debts to borrow at attractive rates to invest in mortgage portfolios and also to provide a fee-based service in issuing mortgage-backed securities.

We suggest reforming the functions provided by the GSEs. In particular we advocate spinning off the portfolio investment activities into a fully private firm. We also advocate conducting the services necessary to issue mortgage-backed securities within a government-owned corporation responsible directly to federal authorities. These reforms would curb excess risk taking in the secondary mortgage market and would provide the liquidity necessary to support the primary mortgage market.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Systemic Risk

Abstract:
The justifications for housing subsidy programs in developing countries often rely upon substantial indirect benefits accruing to program participants (in the form of improved health, earning capacity or employment, or non-market activity). The empirical analysis in this paper suggests that such programs may often be justified solely on the basis of direct impacts. The paper presents a methodology for deriving rigorously the direct Hicksian benefits of housing subsidy programs such as "sites-and-services" and "slum upgrading" projects in developing countries. The methodology is used to evaluate the net benefits of a sites and services project typical of recent urban shelter programs sponsored by the World Bank. The results suggest that the direct benefits of such programs may be substantial. In the particular case analyzed, the rate of return approaches 40 percent.

Abstract:
This paper provides the first systematic analysis of the choice by organizations to occupy green office space. We develop a framework of ecological responsiveness, and we formulate five propositions to explain why specific firms and industries may be more likely to lease green space. We test these propositions by analyzing the decisions of more than 11,000 tenants to choose office space in green buildings or in otherwise comparable non-green buildings located nearby. We find that corporations in the oil and banking industries, as well as government-related and non-profit organizations, are among the most prominent green tenants. After appropriately controlling for building quality and for location within one quarter mile, our empirical analysis shows that firms in mining and construction and organizations in public administration are relatively more likely to lease green rather than conventional office space. Furthermore, organizations employing higher levels of human capital (as measured by skills and compensation) are more likely to lease green office space.

Abstract:
This paper presents a unified model of the default and prepayment behavior of homeowners in a proportional hazard framework. The model uses the option-based approach to analyze default and prepayment and considers these two interdependent hazards as competing risks. The results indicate the sensitivity of default to the initial loan-to-value ratio of the loan and the course of housing equity. The latter is a measure of the extent to which the default option is in the money. The results also indicate the importance of trigger events, namely unemployment and divorce, in affecting prepayment and default behavior. The empirical results are used to analyze the costs of a current policy proposal -- stimulating homeownership by offering low downpayment loans. We simulate default probabilities and costs on zero-downpayment loans and compare them to conventional loans with conventional underwriting standards. The results indicate that if zero-downpayment loans were priced as if they were mortgages with ten percent downpayments, then the additional program costs would be two to four percent of funds made available -- when housing prices increase steadily. If housing prices remained constant, the costs of the program would be much larger indeed. Our estimates suggest that additional program costs could be between $74,000 and $87,000 per million dollars of lending. If the expected losses from such a program were not priced at all, the losses from default alone could exceed ten percent of the funds made available for loans.

Abstract:
Books Reviewed:

Michael L. Lahr and Ronald E. Miller (eds.), Regional Science Perspectives in Economic Analysis: A Festschrift in Memory of Benjamin H. Stevens

Graham Clarke and Moss Madden (eds.), Regional Science in Business

Luis Suarez-Villa, Invention and the Rise of Technocapitalism

Sam Bass Warner, Jr., Greater Boston: Adapting Regional Traditions to the Present

Jameson W. Doig, Empire on the Hudson: Entrepreneurial Vision and Political Power at the Port of New York Authority

Alex Hirschfield and Kate Bowers (eds.), Mapping and Analysing Crime Data: Lessons from Research and Practice

Aura Reggiani and Daniele Fabbri (eds.), Network Developments in Economic Spatial Systems: New Perspectives

Joseph Persky and Wim Wiewel, When Corporations Leave Town: The Costs and Benefits of Metropolitan Job Sprawl

Koichi Mera and Bertrand Renaud (eds.), Asia's Financial Crisis and the Role of Real Estate

Massimo Livi Bacci, The Population of Europe: A History

Byron A. Miller, Geography and Social Movements: Comparing Antinuclear Activism in the Boston Area

Rosalind Greenstein and Wim Wiewel (eds.), Urban-Suburban Interdependencies

Heather Nicol and Greg Halseth (eds.), (Re)Development at the Urban Edge: Reflections on the Canadian Experience

Marco Verweij, Transboundary Environmental Problems and Cultural Theory: The Protection of the Rhine and the Great Lakes

Jonathan Raper, Multidimensional Geographic Information Science

Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of national and regional economic conditions on outcomes in the single-family housing market: housing prices, vacancies, and residential construction activity. Our three-equation model confirms the importance of changes in regional economic conditions, income, and employment on local housing markets. The results also provide the first detailed evidence on the importance of vacancies in the owner-occupied housing market on housing prices and supplier activities. The results also document the importance of variations in materials, labor and capital costs, and regulation in affecting new supply. Simulation exercises, using standard impulse response models, document the lags in market responses to exogenous shocks and the variations arising from differences in local parameters. The results also suggest the importance of local regulation in affecting the pattern of market responses to regional income shocks.

Abstract:
This article examines index revision in measuring the prices for owner-occupied housing. We consider revision in the context of equity insurance and the settlement of futures contracts. The usefulness of aggregate housing price indexes in these contexts requires stability as they are extended. Methods that are subject to substantial revision raise questions about the viability of derivatives markets. We find that the most widely used house price indexes are not equally exposed to volatility in revision. Hedonic indexes appear to be substantially more stable than repeat-sales indexes and are not prone to the systematic downward revision found in the repeat-sales indexes.

Abstract:
Studies of the “stated preferences” of households generally report public and political opposition by urban commuters to congestion pricing. It is thought that this opposition inhibits or precludes tolls and pricing systems that would enhance efficiency in the use of scarce roadways. This paper analyzes the only case in which road pricing was decided by a citizen referendum on the basis of experience with a specific pricing system. The city of Stockholm introduced a toll system for seven months in 2006, after which citizens voted on its permanent adoption. We match precinct voting records to citizen commute times and costs by traffic zone, and we analyze patterns of voting in response to economic and political incentives. We document political and ideological incentives for citizen choice, but we also find that the pattern of time savings and incremental costs exerts a powerful influence on voting behavior. In this instance, at least, citizen voters behave as if they value commute time highly. When they have experienced first-hand the out-of-pocket costs and time-savings of a specific pricing scheme, they are prepared to adopt freely policies which reduce congestion on urban motorways.

highway tolls, voting behavior, commuting costs

Abstract:
This article compares the level and distribution of the welfare changes from restricting land available for residential development in a city. We compare the economic costs when residential capital is durable with the costs when capital is perfectly malleable and those when population is also freely mobile. Our simulation, based on the stylized specification of an urban location model, suggests that in a more realistic setting with durable capital, the costs of regulation are substantially higher than they are when capital is assumed to be malleable or when households are assumed to be fully mobile. Importantly, the extent of wealth redistribution attributable to these regulations is much larger when these more realistic factors are recognized. When capital is durable, the results also imply that far more new development takes place on previously undeveloped land at the urban boundary, sometimes resulting in an increase in total land under development.

malleable capital, durable capital, open city, closed city

Abstract:
This paper compares the level and distribution of the welfare changes from restricting land available for residential development in a city. We compare the economic costs when residential capital is durable with the costs when capital is perfectly malleable and those when population is also freely mobile. Our simulation, based on the stylized specification of an urban location model, suggests that in a more realistic setting with durable capital, the costs of regulation are substantially higher than they are when capital is assumed to be malleable or when households are assumed to be fully mobile. Importantly, the extent of wealth redistribution attributable to these regulations is much larger when these more realistic factors are recognized. When capital is durable, the results also imply that far more new development takes place on previously undeveloped land at the urban boundary, sometimes resulting in an increase in land under development.

Abstract:
In many developed countries, the most significant housing subsidy programs are funded by tax expenditures rather than direct appropriations. Beyond the subsidy to homeownership under the personal income tax, the U.S. tax code provides additional subsidies to specific groups of homeowners. For example, the Mortgage Revenue Bond program (MRB) permits lower levels of government to issue tax-exempt debt, using the proceeds to supply mortgages at below-market interest rates to deserving households. States are also permitted to issue and distribute Mortgage Credit Certificates (MCCs) which entitle recipient homeowners to claim a tax credit for some portion of the mortgage interest paid rather than the tax deduction claimed by other homeowners.

This paper documents the wide variations in reliance upon MCCs and MRBs across U.S. states and the emergence of Mortgage Credit Certificates as the largest housing program administered by California, the largest U.S. state.

The paper also provides an economic analysis of the MCC program using micro data on more than 12 thousand program recipients in California. We estimate the extent and distribution of MCC subsidies across income and demographic groups, measuring the dollar amount of federal subsidies and their effects upon the user cost of residential capital and the demand price of housing. We estimate Poisson models of the geographic incidence of MCC subsidies across neighborhoods of varying socio-demographic composition and deprivation. Finally, we note differences in the administrative and programmatic costs of MCCs and MRBs, suggesting that there are clear reasons to favor Mortgage Credit Certificates as a means of subsidizing deserving households.

Housing subsidy, tax policy, tax credit

Abstract:
During the past two decades, Swedish government policy has decentralized post-secondary education throughout the country. We investigate the economic effects of this decentralization policy on the level of productivity and innovation and their spatial distribution in the national economy. We find important and significant effects of this investment policy upon economic output and the locus of knowledge production, suggesting that the decentralization has affected regional development through local innovation and increased creativity. Our evidence also suggests that aggregate productivity was increased by the deliberate policy of decentralization. Finally, we estimate the spillovers of university investment over space, finding that they are substantial, but that they are greatly attenuated. Agglomerative effects decline rapidly; roughly half of the productivity gains from these investments are manifest within 5–8 km of the community in which they are made.

Abstract:
This paper provides the first credible evidence on the economic value of the certification of “green buildings” - derived from impersonal market transactions rather than engineering estimates. Our analysis of clusters of certified green buildings and nearby comparables establishes that buildings with “green ratings” command substantially higher rents and selling prices than otherwise identical buildings.

Moreover, variations in the premium for green office buildings are systematically related to their energy-saving characteristics. An increase in the energy efficiency of a green building is associated with a substantial increase in selling price - over and above the premium for a labeled building. Further evidence suggests that the intangible effects of the label itself may also play a role in determining the values of green buildings in the marketplace.

environmental sustainability, energy efficiency, green labels, real estate

Abstract:
It is generally conceded that dividend pricing models are poor predictors of asset prices. This finding is sometimes attributed to excess volatility or to a dividend process manipulated by firm managers. In this paper, we present rather powerful panel tests of the dividend pricing relation using a unique data set in which dividends are set by market forces independent of managers' preferences. We rely on observations on the market for condominium dwellings in Korea - perhaps the only market in which information on dividends and prices is publicly and continuously available to consumers and investors. We extend the dividend-price ratio model to panels of housing returns and rents differentiated by type and location. We find broad support for the dividend pricing model during periods both before and after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-1998, suggesting that the market for housing assets in Korea has been remarkably efficient.

Housing price, rent, present value, asset prices

Abstract:
This paper develops a model of price formation in the housing market which accounts for the non-random selection of those dwellings sold on the market from the stock of existing houses. The model we develop also accounts for changes in the quality of dwellings themselves and tests for mean reversion in individual house prices. The model is applied to a unique body of data representing all dwellings sold in Sweden's largest metropolitan area during the period 1982-1999. The analysis compares house price indices that account for selectivity, quality change and mean reversion with the conventional repeat sales models used to describe the course of metropolitan housing prices. We find that the repeat sales method yields systematically large biased estimates of the value of the housing stock. Our comparison suggests that the more general approach to the estimation of housing prices or housing wealth yields substantially improved estimates of the course of housing prices and housing wealth.

house price index, selectivity, mean reversion, hybrid model

Abstract:
An unusually rich souce of data on housing prices in Stockholm is used to analyze the investment implications of housing choices. This empirical analysis derives market-wide price and return series for housing investment during a 13-year period, and it also provides estimates of the individual-specific, idiosyncratic, variation in housing returns. Because the idiosyncratic component follows an autocorrelated process, the analysis of portfolio choice is dependent upon the holding period. We analyze the composition of household investment portfolios containing housing, common stocks, stocks in real estate holding companies, bonds, and t-bills. For short holding periods, the efficient portfolio contains essentially no housing. For longer periods, low risk portfolios contain 15 to 50 percent housing. These results suggest that there are large potential gains from policies or institutions that would permit households to hedge their lumpy investments in housing. We estimate the potential value of hedges in reducing risk to households, yet yielding the same investment returns. The value is surprisingly large, especially to poorer homeowners.

portfolio risk, house price index, hedging

Abstract:
Housing transactions are executed and recorded daily but are routinely pooled into longer time periods for the measurement and analysis of housing price trends. We utilize an unusually rich data set, covering essentially all arm's length housing sales in Sweden for a dozen years, in an attempt to understand the effect of temporal aggregation upon estimates of housing prices and their volatilities. This rich data set also provides a unique opportunity to compare the results using the conventional weighted repeat sales model (WRS) to those based on a research strategy which incorporates all available information on house sales. The results indicate the clear importance of temporal disaggregation in the estimation of housing prices and volatilities--regardless of the model employed. The appropriately disaggregated mode is then used as benchmark to compare estimates of the course of housing prices produced by the two models during the twelve year period 1981-1993. These results indicate that much of the difference between estimates of price movements can be attributed to the data limitations which are inherent in the repeat sales approach. The results, thus, suggest caution in the interpretation of government-produced price indices or those produced by private firms based on the repeated sales model.

Abstract:
This paper tests the importance of the spatial isolation of minority and poverty households for youth employment in large metropolitan areas. We estimate a model relating youth employment probabilities to individual and family characteristics, race and metropolitan location. We then investigate the determinants of the systematic differences in employment probabilities by race and metropolitan area. A substantial fraction of differences in youth employment can be attributed to the isolation of minorities and poor households. Minority youth residing in more segregated cities or cities in which minorities have less contact with nonpoor households have lower employment probabilities than otherwise comparable youth. Simulations suggest that these spatial effects explain a substantial fraction of the existing differences in youth employment rates by race.