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Abstract:
This study explores an additional factor that is associated with differential levels of the post-earnings-announcement drift (henceforth drift) the contemporaneous surprise in revenues. Consistent with prior evidence about greater persistence of revenues and greater noise caused by heterogeneity of expenses, this study shows that the earnings drift is stronger when the revenue surprise is in the same direction as the earnings surprise. Moreover, the study provides direct evidence that the drift is stronger when the earnings persistence is greater. The results are robust to various controls, including the proportions of stock held by institutional investors, trading liquidity, and arbitrage risk.

Abstract:
This study explores an additional factor that is associated with differential levels of the post-earnings-announcement drift (henceforth drift) - the contemporaneous surprise in revenues. Consistent with prior evidence about greater persistence of revenues and greater noise caused by heterogeneity of expenses, this study shows that the earnings drift is stronger when the revenue surprise is in the same direction as the earnings surprise. Moreover, the study provides direct evidence that the drift is stronger when the earnings persistence is greater. The results are robust to various controls, including the proportions of stock held by institutional investors, trading liquidity, and arbitrage risk.

revenue forecasts, revenue surprises, post-earnings announcement drift, persistence

Abstract:
This study examines the disclosure of labor-related costs by US firms, and estimates the proportion of these costs that are valued as an asset (human capital) by the market. Separate identification of labor-related costs in US financial reports is voluntary, and is made consistently only by about 10% of all US Compustat firms. The probability of disclosure is found to be positively related to firm size, labor intensity and membership in regulated industries and is inversely related to industry concentration.

Using a modification of Ohlson's (1995) framework the study finds that on average about 16% of all such costs are valued by the market as an investment in human capital, and that this human capital asset amortizes at a rate of about 34% per year. Further, the human capital asset averages about 5% of the total market value of the firm and accounts for about 16% of the difference between market and book value. The ratio of the human capital asset to market value is found to be positively related to average salary paid to employees, operating uncertainty, and the ratio of labor expenses to sales, but inversely related to the firm size.

Abstract:
This study examines the disclosure of labor-related costs by US firms, and estimates the proportion of these costs that are valued as an asset (human capital) by the market. Separate identification of labor-related costs in US financial reports is voluntary, and is made consistently only by about 10% of all US Compustat firms. The probability of disclosure is found to be positively related to firm size, labor intensity and membership in regulated industries and is inversely related to industry concentration.

Using a modification of Ohlson's (1995) framework the study finds that on average about 16% of all such costs are valued by the market as an investment in human capital, and that this human capital asset amortizes at a rate of about 34% per year. Further, the human capital asset averages about 5% of the total market value of the firm and accounts for about 16% of the difference between market and book value. The ratio of the human capital asset to market value is found to be positively related to average salary paid to employees, operating uncertainty, and the ratio of labor expenses to sales, but inversely related to the firm?s size.

Abstract:
This study investigates a large sample of financial statement restatements over the period 1986-2001, and compares restatements caused by changes in accounting principles to those caused by errors. Typically, investors perceive restatements as negative signals due to three potential reasons: (i) the restatement indicates problems with the accounting system that may be manifestations of broader operational (and managerial) problems, (ii) the restatement causes downward revisions in future cash flows expectations, and (iii) the restatement indicates managerial attempts to cover up income decline through cooking the books.

We provide evidence that market reactions to restatements due to errors are generally negative. We show that these restatements come in periods of declining profits and lower profits than industry peers for the restating firms, consistent with both opportunistic managerial behavior and operational problems. However, investors' reactions to income-increasing restatements due to errors are not different from zero, suggesting that the perceived failure of the accounting system is just offset by the upward revisions in future cash flow expectations in these cases of income-increasing errors. Thus, our combined results show that not all restatements are alike; users of the information need to carefully assess the existence and potential effects of the three factors that typically cause the downward revisions in stock prices on a case by case basis.

restatements, accounting errors, accounting principles

Abstract:
There is growing evidence in the finance literature that investor sentiment affects stock prices. We examine whether stock price reactions to earnings surprises and accruals vary systematically with the level of investor sentiment. Using quarterly drift tests and monthly trading strategy (calendar time) tests, we find evidence that holding extreme good news firms following pessimistic sentiment periods earns significantly higher abnormal returns than holding extreme good news firms following optimistic sentiment periods. Similarly, our results suggest that holding low accrual firms following pessimistic sentiment periods earns significantly higher abnormal returns than holding low accrual firms following optimistic sentiment periods. We also document that abnormal returns in the short-window around preliminary earnings announcements for extreme good news firms are significantly higher during periods of low sentiment than during periods of high sentiment. Overall, our results indicate that investor sentiment influences the source of excess returns from earnings-based trading strategies.

investor sentiment, post-earnings announcement drift, accruals, anomalies

Abstract:
This study investigates market reactions to voluntary earnings guidance provided by managers after the enactment of Regulation FD, which requires companies to disseminate material news to all investors simultaneously. More managers now issue their guidance to the public instead of disclosure to a selective group of analysts, in conformity with Regulation FD. We examine a very large set of earnings guidance disclosures based on identification of these announcements using text mining techniques.

Our results indicate that guidance provided with the disclosure of earnings is not associated with significant market reactions, but guidance provided between earnings releases is associated with significant negative reactions. We further show that market reactions are consistent with the trend implied by management even when it is in the form of qualitative disclosure. Finally, we show that market reactions are stronger (more negative, typically) for NASDAQ firms than NYSE or AMEX firms, larger firms, and when the disclosure involves revenues and not earnings.

management forecast, earnings guidance, text mining, regulation FD

Abstract:
Consistent with prior studies, this study shows that extremely negative and extremely positive earnings surprises in the fourth quarter have lower levels of persistence than those in the first through third fiscal quarters. Furthermore, extremely negative earnings surprises in the fourth fiscal quarter have lower levels of persistence than extremely positive earnings surprises in that quarter.

Similar to the patterns of persistence, the post-earnings-announcement drift in prices is declining through the four quarters of the fiscal year, with the smallest drift occurring after the announcement of the fourth fiscal quarter. The drift after the fourth quarter is virtually nonexistent for extremely negative earnings surprises and smaller than extremely positive surprises, in line with the differential persistence of these surprises. The combined evidence in the study is consistent with investors who under-react to extreme earnings surprises because they seek further information. When the new information confirms the initial surprise, prices move in the same direction, creating a drift. The results of the study are robust to earnings surprises based on time-series properties of earnings or analyst forecasts.

Post-earnings-announcement-drift, fourth quarter, persistence

Abstract:
This study evaluates the impact of earnings on credit risk in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market using levels, changes, and event study analyses. We find that earnings (cash flows, accruals) of reference firms are negatively and significantly correlated with the level of CDS premia, consistent with earnings (cash flows, accruals) conveying information about default risk. Based on the changes analysis, a 1 percent increase in ROA decreases CDS rates significantly by about 5 percent. We also find that (i) CDS premia are more highly correlated with below-median earnings than with above-median earnings and (ii) CDS premia are more highly correlated with earnings of low rated firms than with earnings of high rated firms. Evidence indicates further that short-window earnings surprises are negatively and significantly correlated with CDS premia changes in the three-day window surrounding the preliminary earnings announcement, although the impact is concentrated in the shorter maturities.

Credit Default Swaps, Earnings, Default Risk, Cash Flows, Accruals

Abstract:
This study evaluates the impact of earnings on firm credit risk as captured by Credit Default Swaps (CDS). We find that earnings (changes) are negatively correlated with one-year swap premia (changes) after controlling for equity returns but not with longer term premia (changes). We also find that earnings surprises are significantly correlated with one-year CDS premia changes in the short window surrounding preliminary earnings dates and that absolute earnings surprises are significantly correlated with absolute one-year CDS premia changes in the short window surrounding SEC filing dates. These results suggest that high earnings convey favorable information about the short-term default risk of firms but not about the long term default risk. We further document that accruals/cash flow information conveyed by SEC filings provides information about long-term credit risk. Furthermore, the empirical results are consistent with structural and hybrid model-driven implications of CDS pricing.

Credit Default Swaps, credit risk, earnings

Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship among trading volume around earnings announcements, earnings forecast errors, and subsequent returns. Prior research finds a positive relation between earnings announcement period trading volume and subsequent returns (the high-volume return premium) and between earnings forecast errors and subsequent returns (post-earnings announcement drift). We find that for a sample of firms followed by analysts these effects are complementary, i.e., each retains incremental ability to predict post-earnings announcement returns. Prior research provides two competing explanations for the high-volume return premium: changes in firm visibility versus differences in risk. We provide evidence that seems to rule out risk-based explanations while supporting the visibility hypothesis.

Market efficiency, Trading volume, High-volume return premium, Post-earnings announcement drift

Abstract:
We confirm the value of accruals information to investors and propose a trading strategy, using earnings surprises and accruals, that outperforms prior strategies. Given the usefulness of accruals levels, investors should trade on it as soon as it becomes available. While the vast majority of investors seem to ignore accruals information when it becomes public, investors initiating trades of at least 5,000 shares tend to trade in the correct direction immediately upon the 10-K/Q filing date when accruals information is released. This tendency is limited, however, to cases where earnings convey non-negative news. We provide evidence suggesting that rational behavior combined with short sales constraints may explain large traders' asymmetric response to accruals information. Those investors initiating the smallest trades appear to respond to accruals in the wrong direction. Additional tests suggest that their behavior might be explained by their attraction to attention grabbing stocks.

Market efficiency, Anomalies, Accruals, Earnings

Abstract:
This study explores whether the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of Form 10-Q and 10-K has incremental information content beyond financial measures such as earnings surprises, accruals and operating cash flows (OCF). It uses a well-established classification scheme of words into positive and negative categories to measure the tone change in a specific MD&A section as compared to those of the prior four filings. Our results indicate that short window market reactions around the SEC filing are significantly associated with the tone of the MD&A section, even after controlling for accruals, OCF and earnings surprises. We also show that the tone of the MD&A section adds significantly to portfolio drift returns in the window of two days after the SEC filing date through one day after the subsequent quarter's preliminary earnings announcement, beyond financial information conveyed by accruals, OCF and earnings surprises. The incremental information of tone change is larger the weaker is the firm's information environment.

Tone, SEC filings, MD&A, Earnings surprises, Accruals

Abstract:
This study explores whether the management discussion and analysis (MD&A) section of Forms 10-Q and 10-K has incremental information content beyond financial measures such as earnings surprises and accruals. It uses a classification scheme of words into positive and negative categories to measure the tone change in the MD&A section relative to prior periodic SEC filings. Our results indicate that short window market reactions around the SEC filing are significantly associated with the tone change of the MD&A section, even after controlling for accruals and earnings surprises. We show that management’s tone change adds significantly to portfolio drift returns in the window of two days after the SEC filing date through one day after the subsequent quarter’s preliminary earnings announcement, beyond financial information conveyed by accruals and earnings surprises. The drift returns are affected by the ability of the tone change signals to help predict the subsequent quarter’s earnings surprise but cannot be completely attributed to this ability. We also find that the incremental information of management’s tone change depends on the strength of the firm’s information environment.

Textual analysis, earnings drift, accruals, earnings surprises, management tone change, MD&A

Abstract:
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has mandated new disclosure requirements in Form 8-K, which became effective on August 23, 2004. The SEC expanded the list of items that have to be reported and accelerated the timeliness of these reports. This study examines the market reactions to 8-Ks filed under the new SEC regime and investigates whether periodic reports (10-K/Qs) became less informative under the new 8-K disclosure rules. We observe that the newly required 8-K items constitute over half of all filings and that most firms disclose the required items within the new shortened period (four business days). We find that all disclosed items (old and new) are associated with abnormal volume and return volatility around both the event and the SEC filing dates, and some items have significant return drifts after the SEC filings. Surprisingly, we find that the information content of periodic reports has not diminished by the more expansive and timely 8-K disclosures under the new guidance, possibly indicating that investors may use periodic filings to interpret the effects of material events that had been disclosed earlier.

Abstract:
This study investigates a large sample of financial statement restatements over theperiod 1986-2001, and compares restatements caused by changes in accounting principlesto those caused by errors. Typically, investors perceive restatements as negative signals due to three potential reasons: (i) the restatement indicates problems with the accounting system that may be manifestations of broader operational (and managerial) problems, (ii) the restatement causes downward revisions in future cash flows expectations, and (iii) the restatement indicates managerial attempts to cover up income decline through â¬Scookingthe booksâ¬?. We provide evidence that market reactions to restatements due to errors aregenerally negative. We show that these restatements come in periods of declining profits and lower profits than industry peers for the restating firms, consistent with bothopportunistic managerial behavior and operational problems. However, investorsâ¬"reactions to income-increasing restatements due to errors are not different from zero,suggesting that the perceived failure of the accounting system is just offset by the upward revisions in future cash flow expectations in these cases of income-increasing errors. Thus, our combined results show that not all restatements are alike; users of theinformation need to carefully assess the existence and potential effects of the three factors that typically cause the downward revisions in stock prices on a case by case basis.

Abstract:
This study evaluates the impact of earnings on firm credit risk as captured by CreditDefault Swaps (CDS). We find that earnings (changes) are negatively correlated withone-year swap premia (changes) after controlling for equity returns but not with longer term premia (changes). We also find that earnings surprises are significantly correlated with one-year CDS premia changes in the short window surrounding preliminaryearnings dates and that absolute earnings surprises are significantly correlated withabsolute one-year CDS premia changes in the short window surrounding SEC filingdates. These results suggest that high earnings convey favorable information about the short-term default risk of firms but not about the long term default risk. We furtherdocument that accruals/cash flow information conveyed by SEC filings providesinformation about long-term credit risk. Furthermore, the empirical results are consistent with structural and hybrid model-driven implications of CDS pricing.

Abstract:
This study examines the disclosure of labor-related costs by US firms, and estimates the proportion of these costs that are valued as an asset (human capital) by the market. Separate identification of labor-related costs in US financial reports is voluntary, and is made consistentlyonly by about 10% of all US Compustat firms. The probability of disclosure is found to bepositively related to firm size, labor intensity and membership in regulated industries and is inversely related to industry concentration.Using a modification of Ohlson's (1995) framework the study finds that on average about 16% of all such costs are valued by the market as an investment in human capital, and that this human capital asset amortizes at a rate of about 34% per year. Further, the human capital asset averages about 5% of the total market value of the firm and accounts for about 16% of the difference between market and book value. The ratio of the human capital asset to market value is found to be positively related to average salary paid to employees, operating uncertainty, andthe ratio of labor expenses to sales, but inversely related to the firm s size.

Abstract:
This study provides evidence that investors perceive analysts’ prompt revisions after public corporate public disclosure as more valuable than non-prompt revisions. To the extent that prompt revisions are more likely to reflect analysts’ ability to interpret public information, rather than their ability to develop private information, our results suggest that investors value more highly analysts’ ability to interpret public disclosure. Unlike Ivkovic and Jegadeesh (2004) which reach the opposite conclusion, we use not only preliminary earnings announcements but also SEC filings of 10-Q, 10-K and 8-K forms to capture corporate public disclosures. We show that market reactions are stronger in the short window around those revisions promptly following preliminary earnings announcements or 8-K filings, and that market reactions in the long-window that spans the revisions and the subsequent 90 days are stronger for revisions promptly following 8-K filings. These results are robust to various sensitivity tests.

Abstract:
This study investigates market reactions to voluntary earnings guidance provided by managers after the enactment of Regulation FD, which requires companies to disseminate material news to all investors simultaneously. More managers now issue their guidance to the public instead of disclosure to a selective group of analysts, in conformity with Regulation FD. We examine a very large set of earnings guidance disclosures based on identification of these announcements using text mining techniques.Our results indicate that guidance provided with the disclosure of earnings is not associated with significant market reactions, but guidance provided between earnings releases is associated with significant negative reactions. We further show that market reactions are consistent with the trend implied by management even when it is in the form of qualitative disclosure. Finally, we show that market reactions are stronger (more negative, typically) for NASDAQ firms than NYSE or AMEX firms, larger firms, and when the disclosure involves revenues and not earnings.

Abstract:
This study examines the motives for asset revaluations in a sample drawn from 35 countries that permit asset revaluations. Prior studies that examined this issue concentrated on one or two countries, the UK and Australia, and showed that revaluations are related to financing needs, the capital intensity of the firm as well as issues related to political costs. The previous literature also found that revaluations were indicators of improved future performance and that performance was related to the magnitude of the revaluations. This study shows that although the conclusions drawn from the previous studies are applicable to countries that are similar to the UK and Australia, they do not hold when applied to a much larger set of countries and that the motivations for and effects of revaluation are not uniform across various country classifications.

Abstract:
An important element in financial analysis is decomposing variables into components, as is the case in the DuPont decomposition of return on net operating assets (RNOA). Prior studies find that RNOA and its components - Operating Profit Margin (OPM) and Asset Turnover (ATO) - are important for valuation and that ATO is more persistent than OPM. We extend the literature by making a distinction between a variable's unconditional and conditional persistence. We define unconditional persistence as the autocorrelation coefficient obtained from a variable’s time series, and conditional persistence as the power of a variable’s persistence (e.g., OPM) to explain the persistence of a higher hierarchy variable (e.g., RNOA). This distinction allows us to ex-ante measure the relative magnitude of the market reaction to a ratio depending on its hierarchy in the analysis. We use these definitions to examine the market reaction to the DuPont ratios and find that while the unconditional persistence of ATO is larger than that of OPM, the persistence of OPM is more powerful than that of ATO in explaining the persistence of RNOA. Because the conditional persistence of OPM is larger than that of ATO, we predict and find that the market’s reaction to OPM is stronger than that to ATO. We further decompose OPM and ATO into their second-order components and show that when a component's conditional persistence is larger, the market reaction to it is stronger, regardless of its unconditional persistence.

Return on Net Operating Assets, DuPont Decomposition, Persistence, Market Reaction

Abstract:
Using quarterly and rolling four-quarter data, this study explores the incremental roles of accruals and net operating cash flows in generating abnormal returns for the full population of U.S. listed companies and specific industries. Quarterly net operating cash flow (OCF) is a stronger signal of the next quarter's returns than are accruals. When rolling four-quarter OCF and accruals were used to construct portfolios held for a whole year, however, OCF dominated accruals only in the first three fiscal quarters. The industry-specific results are consistent with the results for the full population. For most industries, investment managers and financial analysts should focus on OCF more than on accruals.

Portfolio Management: Equity Strategies, Equity Investments, Fundamental Analysis and Valuation Models, Industry Analysis, Financial Statement Analysis, Financial and Ratio Analysis

Abstract:
This study investigates whether stock market reactions to earnings information of firms that release their earnings close to quarter-end (Early) are systematically different from their industry peers which report later during the quarter (Late). Unexpectedly, we find that immediate market reactions to early reporters are weaker than those to late or middle reporters. We also find that stock market returns subsequent to the earnings announcements are stronger for positive earnings surprises of early reporters than late reporters, indicating that the market systematically under reacts to the positive surprises of early reporters. These results have implications for investors who can use this systematic under reaction in their trading strategies and academics who can understand better how market participants gather and process earnings information.

Standardized unexpected earnings, drift, abnormal returns, timelines of earnings, industry information transfer

Abstract:
Post-earnings-announcement drift is the well-documented ability of earnings surprises to predict future stock returns. Despite nearly four decades of research, little has been written about the importance of how earnings surprise is actually measured. We compare the magnitude of the drift when historical time-series data are used to estimate earnings surprise with the magnitude when analyst forecasts are used. We show that the drift is significantly larger when analyst forecasts are used. Furthermore, we show that using the two models together does a better job of predicting future stock returns than using either model alone.

Equity Investments, Research Sources, Fundamental Analysis and Valuation Models, Portfolio Management: Equity Strategies

Abstract:
The study reported here consisted of estimating earnings and sales (or revenue) surprises either with historical time-series data or with analyst forecasts. Post-earnings-announcement drift was found to be stronger when the revenue surprise was in the same direction as the earnings surprise. This result proved to be robust to various controls, including the proportions of stock held by institutional investors, arbitrage risk, and turnover (prior 60-month average trading volume). This finding is consistent with prior evidence that earnings surprises have a more persistent effect on future earnings growth when they consist of higher revenue surprises than when they consist of lower expense surprises.

Equity Investments, Fundamental Analysis and Valuation Models, Portfolio Management, Equity Strategies

Abstract:
Using the Vuolteenaho (2002) variance decomposition methodology, this study assesses the relative value relevance of cash flow, accrual (earnings) and expected return news on SEC and preliminary earnings filing dates, as measured by their contribution to the volatility of unexpected returns. Cash flow news is found to be more value relevant than accrual news. Although expected return (risk) news is the least value relevant, it is significantly correlated with changes in betas and returns at the preliminary and SEC filing dates, indicating association with changes in firm risk and discount rates. This study also documents that these informational components contain less (more) value relevant information at the SEC filing date for firms with a higher proportion of long-term (transient momentum) sophisticated investors after controlling for other dimensions of the information environment.

SEC Filings, Value Relevance, Variance Decomposition

Abstract:
This study utilizes firm-specific time-series data to estimate the economic value of the Research and Development (R&D) expenditures that investors consider an asset to the firm. The study uses a modification of the Ohlson (1995) model to estimate the persistence of abnormal earnings, the proportion of current R&D expenditures that represents a source of future benefits to the firm, and the amortization rate of that asset. The parameters are estimated from time-series data of market and book values of equity, earnings, and R&D expenditures. The study further compares the firm-specific estimates with those resulting from an application of a cross-sectional estimation procedure based on all available companies in the sample and industry-specific subsamples. Results indicate the existence of significant differences in some 2-digit SIC code industries between the time-series and the cross-sectional estimates of the parameters and the economic value of the R&D asset. Differences in the capitalization parameter are associated with the growth in R&D, the profitability of the firm, R&D intensity and the concentration of the industry. Differences in the persistence of earnings are related to the concentration ratio. Finally, differences in the estimated economic value of the R&D asset are associated with the profitability of the company as measured by its return on assets. We further compare the associations between the three different estimates of the R&D asset and subsequent stock returns, as well as the contemporaneous difference between the market and book value of companies. Results indicate that the time-series estimates of the R&D asset show stronger associations with both variables, followed by the intra-industry and the cross-industry cross-sectional estimates. Overall, our results provide evidence that market participants behave as if R&D expenditures have significant future economic benefits to the firm, and show that the cross-sectional and time-series approaches followed when assessing its economic value provide significantly different estimates.

R&D, Valuation Models, Intangibles, Fundamental Analysis

Abstract:
We examined whether traffic data on sites owned by publicly listed Internet companies provide information about the future of those companies that is useful in portfolio management. The study shows that when Internet companies are classified into portfolios according to above-median and below-median traffic data, the more popular sites provide significantly better stock returns than the less popular sites. These results may be explained by the superior ability of popular sites to attract advertising revenues and extract greater compensation from affiliated sites. They may also indicate investors' perceptions that the more popular sites have greater network externalities (in which the value of being a part of the network increases with the number of members already in the network) and have the ability to generate higher future profits and cash flows. These results carried through to offline companies with Internet sites in 1999 but not in 2000, possibly because the online operations of offline companies were still not a material component of the companies' revenues and cash flows.

Abstract:
This paper examines an investment strategy based on free cash flows. The strategy selects securities into a "long" portfolio that outperforms the market index, returns of similar size securities, and returns of similar risk (beta and book-to-market) securities. The portfolio includes firms that are consistent free cash flow generators, that have low financial leverage, and that sell at low free cash flow multiples.

Abstract:
This study empirically documents that firms with large ratios of current capital expenditures to prior four-year average capital expenditures enjoy positive contemporaneous abnormal returns. It further documents that average capital expenditures across Compustat-covered U.S. corporations are significantly greater (smaller) in the fourth (first) quarter of the fiscal year than in other quarters. This capital expenditure timing effect holds consistently across years, industries, fiscal year ends, and a variety of firm attributes. The study tests a number of potential economic and accounting explanations for the capital expenditure timing effect, including "use it or lose it", uncertainty resolution, taxes and income smoothing. It reports evidence consistent with "use it or lose it" and to a lesser degree with taxes and income smoothing. It finds weak or no evidence for uncertainty resolution and other explanations. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for financial statement analysis.

Abstract:
This study empirically investigates the information dynamics of the Ohlson valuation framework. Single-period lagged linear autoregressive relationships among dividends, earnings, and book values of equity are estimated for a sample of stochastically stationary firms and are found not to support the valuation framework. This study further extends the empirical analysis to a multi-lagged vector autoregressive linear information system. Consistent with the Ohlson valuation framework, the past time series of all three variables are generally found to be relevant for firm valuation. This study brings into question empirical research utilizing the Ohlson framework that presupposes a single-period lagged information dynamic.