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Abstract:
This paper reviews the experience of economic growth during the twentieth century with a view to highlighting implications for both growth economists and policy-makers. The unprecedented divergence in income levels between the OECD economies and many developing countries is documented but so too is a more optimistic picture of widespread progress in terms of the Human Development Index. Various aspects of the changes in economic structure are explored in terms of their implications for growth performance both in retrospect and prospect. The possibility that the growth process will lead to another globalization backlash reminiscent of the 1930s is analyzed.

Growth, convergence, globalization

Abstract:
The paper evaluates the impact of HIV/AIDS on welfare in several countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Unlike studies focusing on the impact of HIV/AIDS on GDP per capita, we evaluate the impact of increased mortality using estimates of the value of statistical life. Our results illustrate the catastrophic impact of HIV/AIDS in the worst-affected countries and suggest that studies focusing on GDP and income per capita capture only a very small proportion of the welfare impact of HIV/AIDS.

Welfare, HIV/AIDS, value of statistical life, Africa

Abstract:
This paper surveys the literature on the growth performance of the east Asian economies in recent decades, evaluates the sustainability of that performance, and provides a preliminary assessment of their long-term growth prospects in the aftermath of the current crisis. It highlights three special aspects of east Asian growth: unusually high factor accumulation, a favorable demographic transition, and the impact of rapid growth on financial and other institutions. The paper argues that there are downside risks to the east Asian "developmental state" model, despite its favorable attributes, and that an alternative model may become more attractive as these economies mature.

Abstract:
This Paper argues that a geographical perspective is fundamental to understanding comparative economic development in the context of globalization. Central to this view is the role of agglomeration in productivity performance; size and location matter. The tools of the new economic geography are used to illuminate important episodes when the relative position of major economies radically changed: the rise of the United States at the beginning and of East Asia at the end of the 20th century. It is suggested that while lack of high quality institutions has been a major reason for falling behind geographic disadvantages also merit attention.

Globalization, economic geography, economic history

Abstract:
A growth accounting methodology is used to compare the contributions to growth in terms of capital-deepening and total factor productivity growth of three general-purpose technologies, namely, steam in Britain during 1780-1860, electricity and information and communications technology in the United States during 1899-1929 and 1974-2000, respectively. The format permits explicit comparison of earlier episodes with the results for ICT obtained by Oliner and Sichel. The results suggest that the contribution of ICT was already relatively large before 1995 and it is suggested that the true productivity paradox is why economists expected more sooner from ICT.

Growth accounting, general purpose technologies, productivity paradox

Abstract:
This paper considers the accuracy of traditional TFP growth estimates using a methodology that takes account of scale economies, fixed factors of production and adjustment costs to reveal underlying 'pure technological change'. The results suggest that these biases vary substantially over time but do not impact heavily on Anglo-German comparisons. In both countries the early postwar years are a period when adjustment costs from a rising supply price of capital goods hold down TFP growth below that which could have accrued from pure technological progress. As might be expected, this problem largely disappeared in the later globalisation period.

Abstract:
This paper reviews the historical evidence on the relationship between globalisation and economic growth. Divergence in the growth of income and industrialisation in the twentieth century is documented but it is also noted that international income inequality appears to have decreased since about 1870 and that long-run trends in the Human Development Index are much less pessimistic about the experience of developing countries. It is argued that trade liberalisation has been good for growth on average but that successful capital liberalisation requires high institutional quality and that the developmental state may have an important role to play in the early stages of development. The recent claim by Robert Lucas that the 21st century will see a massive reduction in income inequality across countries in a globalised world economy is sceptically discussed in the context of empirical evidence that bad institutions are often persistent and that geography is still a major factor in explaining international income differences.

Abstract:
The Paper considers the accuracy of traditional TFP growth estimates using an econometric methodology which takes account of scale economies, fixed factors of production and adjustment costs to reveal underlying 'pure technological change'. The results suggest that these biases vary substantially over time but do not impact heavily on Anglo-German comparisons. In both countries the early post-war years are a period when adjustment costs from a rising supply price of capital goods hold down TFP growth below that which could have accrued from pure technological progress. As might be expected, this problem largely disappeared in the later globalization period.

Total factor productivity, manufacturing, adjustment costs

Abstract:
Where transport costs were falling, were the new economic geography forces for industry agglomeration and dispersion at work in the location of industry in pre-1931 Britain? This paper examines the issue empirically using a general model that nests the Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowment with new economic geography models. The evidence suggests that while the location of pre-1931 British industry was mainly driven by the former, the scale economies aspect of the latter also played a role.

JEL classifications: N23, O18, O52

Abstract:
The contribution of steam to British economic growth in the nineteenth century is estimated using growth accounting methods similar to those recently employed to examine the role of ICT. The results indicate that steam contributed little to growth before 1830 and had its peak impact about a hundred years after Watt's famous invention. Only with the advent of high-pressure steam after 1850 did the technology realise its potential. Compared with ICT, steam's impact on the annual rate of growth was modest. It is unlikely that these conclusions are vulnerable to quantification of hitherto unmeasured TFP spillovers.

Abstract:
Where transport costs were falling, were the new economic geography forces for industry agglomeration and dispersion at work in the movement of industry in pre-1931 Britain? This Paper examines the issue empirically using a general model that nests the Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowment with new economic geography models. The evidence suggests that while the former mainly drove the location of pre-1931 British industry, the scale economies aspect of the latter also played a role.

Industry location, British manufacturing, transport costs, agglomeration economies

Abstract:
The paper reviews theory and evidence on the ways in which regulation affects productivity outcomes. In a context of endogenous growth, it is argued that traditional measures of compliance costs miss the potentially most important impacts of regulation on productivity which occur through changes in incentives to invest and to innovate. Recent attempts to measure cross-country variations in the strength of product-market and employment regulation are considered and some weaknesses are highlighted. Nevertheless, consistent with endogenous growth models, there appears to be quite strong evidence that regulations which inhibit entry into product markets have an adverse effect on TFP growth in OECD countries. Although there are some discrepancies in the evidence, on most measures the UK appears lightly regulated relative to France and Germany, and this may have contributed to a reduction in the recent past in the UK's TFP gap.

Abstract:
No abstract available.

Abstract:
The paper builds on a method proposed by Geary and Stark for estimating regional incomes in Victorian Britain. This is modified by using tax data to allocate non-wage income across regions. The results suggest that the coefficient of variation of regional GDP per head was rising rapidly prior to World War I in similar fashion to the late 20th century such that its level in 1901 and 2001 was about the same. In both episodes of globalization there were big winners and big losers among British regions.

Abstract:
This paper examines major privately owned British railway companies before the First World War. Quantitative evidence is presented on return on capital employed (ROCE), total factor productivity (TFP) growth, cost inefficiency, and speed of passenger services. There were discrepancies in performance across companies but ROCE and TFP typically fell during our period. Cost inefficiency rose before 1900 but then was brought under control as a profits collapse loomed. Without the discipline of either strong competition or effective regulation, managerial failure was common. This sector is an important qualification to the conventional wisdom that late Victorian Britain did not fail.