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Werner Guth's
Scholarly Papers
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Total Downloads
3,544 |
Total
Citations
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1.
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Dennis Alexis Valin Dittrich Jacobs University Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Boris Maciejovsky Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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25 Jan 02
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01 Sep 04
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812 (6,995)
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4
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Abstract:
We experimentally test overconfidence in investment decisions by offering participants the possibility to substitute their own for alternative investment choices. Overall, 149 subjects participated in two experiments, one with just one risky asset, the other with two risky assets. Overconfidence increases (i) with the absolute deviation from optimal choices, (ii) with task complexity, and (iii) decreases with uncertainty as indicated by the difference between willingness to pay and to accept.
Risky Decision Making, Behavioral Finance, Portfolio Choice, Experimental Economics
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2.
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Thomas Gehrig University of Freiburg Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Rene Levinsky Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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09 Aug 06
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09 Aug 06
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286 (28,947)
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Abstract:
We analyze how transparency affects information acquisition in a bargaining context, where proposers may chose to purchase information about the unknown outside option of their bargaining partner. Although information acquisition is excessive in all our scenarios we find that the bargaining outcome depends crucially on the transparency of the bargaining environment. In transparent games, when responders can observe whether proposers have acquired information, acceptance rates are higher. Accordingly, in transparent bargaining environments information is more valuable, both individually and socially.
information acquisition, ultimatum experiment, transparency
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3.
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Gerlinde Fellner University of Bonn - Institute of Business Administration I Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Boris Maciejovsky Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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16 Jan 02
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01 Sep 04
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257 (32,666)
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Abstract:
Overall, 72 subjects invest their endowment in four risky assets. Each combination of assets yields the same expected return and variance of returns. Illusion of expertise prevails when one prefers nevertheless the self-selected portfolio. After being randomly assigned to groups of four, subjects are asked to elect their "expert" based on responses to a prior decision task. Using the random price mechanism reveals that 64% of the subjects prefer their own portfolio over the average group portfolio or the expert's portfolio. Illusion of expertise is shown to be stable individually, over alternatives, and for both eliciting methods, willingness to pay and to accept.
Investment Decisions, Portfolio Selection, Overconfidence, Unrealistic Optimism, Illusion of Control, Endowment Effect
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4.
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Thomas Gehrig University of Freiburg Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Rene Levinsky Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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02 Oct 07
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23 Oct 07
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178 (47,930)
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Abstract:
In a market with stochastic demand at most one seller can acquire costly information about demand. Other sellers entertain idiosyncratic beliefs about the market demand and whether there exists an informed seller. These idiosyncratic beliefs co-evolve with the potential insider's inclination to acquire information. True demand expectations are not evolutionarily stable when beliefs, via revelation, can be used to commit to more aggressive behavior. The commitment effect fades away in large markets and has the same direction for for both strategic substitutes and complements. Whether one observes an insider, in the long haul, depends on the information costs. For strategic substitutes insider activity benefits the whole population when it is possible that the uniformed sellers gain more than the insider.
co-evolution, idiosyncratic beliefs, inside information, heterogenous markets, information sharing
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5.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Wieland Müller Tilburg University - Department of Economics Yossi Spiegel Tel Aviv University - The Leon Recanati Graduate School of Business Administration
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15 May 02
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24 May 02
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149 (56,856)
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Abstract:
We examine the strategic behavior of leaders and followers in sequential duopoly experiments in which followers either perfectly observe the leaders' actions or else observe nothing. Our experiments show that consistent with the theory, leaders enjoy a greater first-mover advantage when followers observe their actions with higher probability. However, the results also show that (i) leaders do not fully exploit their first-mover advantage, (ii) when informed, followers tend to overreact slightly (i.e., choose quantities above their best-response to the leaders' quantities), and (iii) when uninformed, followers try to predict leaders' quantities and react optimally. This suggests that followers view the symmetric Cournot outcome as "fair" and whenever they observe leaders who are trying to exploit their first-mover advantage, they "punish" them by overreacting. Such punishments in turn induce leaders to behave more softly than the theory predicts.
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6.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel Humboldt University of Berlin - Faculty of Economics Elmar G. Wolfstetter Humboldt University of Berlin - Faculty of Economics
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20 Aug 01
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29 Nov 01
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139 (60,546)
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Abstract:
We review an asymmetric auction experiment. Based on Plum (1992) private valuations of the two bidders are independently drawn from distinct but commonly known distributions, one of which stochastically dominating the other. We test the qualitative properties of that model of asymmetric auctions, in particular whether the weak bidder behaves more aggressively than the strong and then test bidders' preference for first- vs. second-price auctions.
Sealed Bid Auctions, Asymmetric Bidders, Private-Independent Values, Experiments
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7.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Axel Ockenfels University of Cologne - Department of Economics
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28 Mar 01
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01 Sep 04
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110 (73,450)
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Abstract:
Applying an indirect evolutionary approach with endogenous preference formation, we show that a legal system can induce players to reward trust even if material incentives dictate to exploit trust. By analyzing the crowding out or crowding in of trustworthiness implied by various verdict rules, we can assess how a court influences the share of kept promises of; truly; trustworthy players who evolutionarily evolved as trustworthy and of opportunistic players who are only trustworthy if inspired by material incentives.
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8.
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Rupert Sausgruber University of Innsbruck - Department of Economics & Statistics Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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22 Oct 04
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22 Oct 04
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104 (76,675)
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Abstract:
We study experimentally how taxpayers choose between two tax regimes to fund a public good. The first-best tax regime imposes a general, distortion-free income tax. However, this tax cannot be enforced. The second-best alternative supplements the income tax by a specific commodity tax. This tax cannot be evaded but distorts optimal consumption choices, instead. The result is that a large majority of subjects prefer the general income tax regime. The bulk of votes is consistent with actual payoffs. We isolate tax morale as cause for payoffs above theoretical predictions.
optimal taxation, tax evasion, voting, experiments
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9.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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06 Dec 07
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06 Dec 07
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100 (78,877)
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Abstract:
Economic theory has evolved without paying proper attention to behavioral approaches, especially to social, economic, and cognitive psychology. This has recently changed by including behavioral economics courses in many doctoral study programs. Although this new development is most welcome, the typical topics of the behavioral economics courses are not truly behavioral. More specifically, we question whether neoclassical repairs or game fitting exercises as well as more or less mechanic adaptation processes qualify as behavioral approaches. To avoid criticizing without offering alternatives, we suggest some truly behavioral concepts, especially the satisficing approach.
(Un)Bounded rationality, Satisficing, Learning, Experimental and Behavioral Economics
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10.
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Siegfried Berninghaus Institut fuer Statistik und Mathematische Wirtscha Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Claudia Keser IBM - T. J. Watson Research Center
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11 Jul 00
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11 Jul 00
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96 (81,202)
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Abstract:
We present an experiment where two players bargain with a third player. They can bargain either separately or form a joint venture to bargain collectively. Our theoretical benchmark solution predicts decentralized bargaining, as only one player has an interest in forming a joint venture. However, we observe a significant amount of collective bargaining. Collective bargaining, when compared with decentralized bargaining, has no significant effect on the payoffs of the players in the joint venture but reduces the payoff of the third player.
Bargaining, joint venture, merger, experiments, equilibrium selection
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11.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Theo Offerman University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics (FEE) Jan J.M. Potters Tilburg University - CentER Martin Strobel Maastricht University - Department of Economics Harrie A.A. Verbon Tilburg University - CentER
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12 Dec 00
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12 Jan 01
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92 (83,772)
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Abstract:
We study an overlapping-generations experiment with multiple families in which redistributional transfers can take the form of support to the elderly or grants to children. Supporting the old is a purely inter-generational (intra-family) transfer, whereas grants to children also involve an element of intra-generational (inter-family) solidarity. Our treatment variable is the tax rate determining the amount of redistribution by means of the compulsory pension scheme. We investigate to which degree compulsory solidarity crowds out voluntary solidarity. We also consider whether voluntary solidarity relies more on grants to children or on support to the old aged, and the mechanisms which are used in eliciting transfers from family members from other generations.
Within-Family Transfers, Overlapping Generations, Redistributive Public-Pension System, Crowding Out of Private Transfers, Reciprocity
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12.
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Sven Fischer Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Wieland Müller Tilburg University - Department of Economics Andreas Stiehler Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
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21 Sep 04
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21 Sep 04
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90 (85,027)
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Abstract:
We examine theoretically and experimentally the strategic behavior of first and second movers in a two party bargaining game with uncertain information transmission. When the first mover states her demand, she does not know whether the second mover will be informed about it. If the second mover is informed, she can either accept or reject the offer, and payoffs are determined as in the ultimatum game. If she is not informed, the second mover states her own demand, and payoffs are determined as in the Nash demand game. In the experiment, we vary the commonly known probability of information transmission. Our main finding is that first movers' and uninformed second movers' behavior is qualitatively in line with the game theoretic solution, that is, first movers' (uninformed second movers') demands are lower (higher) the lower the probability of a signal.
Commitment, imperfect observability, ultimatum bargaining game, Nash bargaining game, experiments
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13.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Sabine Kröger University of Laval - Département d'Économique Ernst G. Maug University of Mannheim - Department of Business Administration and Finance
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17 Jun 04
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29 Jul 04
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72 (98,148)
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Abstract:
We present an experimental study of a risky sequential bargaining to model negotiations in risky joint ventures that proceed through multiple stages. Our example is the production of a movie that may give rise to a sequel, so actors and producers negotiate sequentially. We compare the predictions of alternative theoretical approaches to understanding such a game. The game theoretic solution predicts (assuming risk neutrality) that actors are willing to accept wages below their outside option for first films in order to capture the gains from winning lucrative sequel contracts. This prediction is strongly rejected by the data. The data are better explained by either equity theory (equal splits) or by a game theoretic model where actors have uncertain risk aversion. The parameters of the game are calibrated to match data on 99 movies for 1989 available from a case study.
Bargaining, risk, joint ventures, game theory
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14.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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28 Mar 01
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Last Revised:
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01 Sep 04
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72 (98,148)
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Abstract:
A general framework is described specifying how boundedly rational decision makers generate their choices. Starting from a "Master Module"; which keeps an inventory of previously successful and unsuccessful routines several submodules can be called forth which either allow one to adjust behavior (by "Learning Module" and "Adaptation Procedure") or to generate new decision routines by applying "New Problem Solver"). Our admittedly bold attempt is loosely related to some stylized experimental results.
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15.
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Uwe Cantner University of Jena - Economics Department Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Andreas Nicklisch Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Torsten Weiland Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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05 Oct 07
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16 Oct 07
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66 (103,391)
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Abstract:
We experimentally investigate competition in innovation in a patent race scenario. Pairs of subjects compete as seller firms on a duopoly market, engaging in risky search investments. Successful innovation is rewarded through temporary monopoly rents. Throughout the interaction, subjects receive feedback on own and other's search success and profit margin. Partitioning subjects into subgroups of investor types reveals that the majority of subjects condition investments on the degree of competition as measured by sales shares, while for others no correlation is ascertained. Heterogeneity in individual risk attitudes and differing experiences with related search tasks may explain this finding.
innovation, competition, imitation, patent race
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16.
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Lisa Bruttel Humboldt University of Berlin Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Ulrich Kamecke Humboldt University of Berlin - Faculty of Economics
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06 Dec 07
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Last Revised:
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06 Dec 07
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62 (107,013)
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Abstract:
Using a symmetric 2-person prisoners' dilemma as the base game, each player receives a signal for the number of rounds to be played with the same partner. The actual number of rounds (the length of the supergame) is determined by the maximal signal where each player expects the other's signal to be smaller, respectively larger, by a fixed number of rounds with 50% probability. In the tradition of Folk Theorems we show that both, mutual defection and mutual cooperation until the individually perceived last round, are subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes. We find experimental evidence that many players do in fact cooperate beyond their individual signal peri
Prisoners¿ dilemma, Continuation probability, Uncertainty, Experiment
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17.
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Judith Avrahami affiliation not provided to SSRN Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Yaakov Kareev affiliation not provided to SSRN Tobias Uske affiliation not provided to SSRN
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21 Nov 07
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Last Revised:
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28 Jan 08
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56 (112,663)
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Abstract:
When two or more agents compete for a bonus and the agents' productivity in each of several possible occurrences depends stochastically on (constant) effort, the number of times that are checked to assign the bonus affects the level of uncertainty in the selection process. Uncertainty, in turn, is expected to increase the efforts made by competing agents (Cowen and Glazer (1996), Dubey and Haimanko (2003), Dubey and Wu (2001)). Theoretical predictions were derived and experimental evidence collected for the case of two competing agents, with the bonus awarded to that agent who outperforms the other. Levels of uncertainty (sampling occasions of productions, 1 or 3), cost of production (high or low), cost symmetry (asymmetric or symmetric), and piece-rate reward were manipulated factorially to test the robustness of the effects of uncertainty. For control, a single-agent case was also theoretically analyzed and empirically tested. The results indicate that, for tournaments, greater uncertainty does indeed lead to greater than expected effort and lower unit variable costs.
Monitoring, Tournament, Incentives, Uncertainty, Stochastic Production Technology
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18.
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Jordi Brandts Instituto de Analisis Economico (CSIC) Barcelona Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Andreas Stiehler Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
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25 Mar 03
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25 Mar 03
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56 (112,663)
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1
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Abstract:
We study whether selection affects motivation. In our experiment subjects first answer a personality questionnaire. They then play a 3-person game. One of the three players decides between an outside option assigning him a positive amount, but leaving the two others empty-handed and allowing one of the other two players to distribute a pie. Treatments differ in the procedure by which distributive power is assigned: to a randomly determined or to a knowingly selected partner. Before making her decision the selecting player could consult the personality questionnaire of the other two players. Results show that knowingly selected players keep less for themselves than randomly selected ones and reward the selecting player more generously.
organizational behavior, reciprocity, trust
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19.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Judit Kovacs University of Debrecen
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21 Mar 01
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01 Sep 04
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56 (112,663)
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Abstract:
By vetoing one questions mutually efficient agreements. On the other hand the threat of vetoing may prevent exploitation. Based on a generalization of ultimatum bargaining (Suleiman, 1996) we first elicit the responders; certainty equivalents for three different degrees of veto power. Afterwards the corresponding bargaining rule is implemented. The experimental data reveal that proposers are afraid of more veto power but that responders only care for commanding veto power at all, not for its strength.
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20.
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Vital Anderhub Humboldt University of Berlin - Faculty of Economics Dennis Alexis Valin Dittrich Jacobs University Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Nadege Marchand Groupe d' Analyse et de Theorie Economique (GATE)
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13 Sep 02
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13 Sep 02
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51 (117,670)
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Abstract:
We investigate the intertemporal allocation behavior of spouses with different deterministic life expectations in an experiment. In each period of their life both partners propose a consumption level of which one is then randomly implemented. Thus both partners must anticipate their partner's and their own future choices when deciding how much to consume today. To allow for learning one experiences many "lives". In spite of the complex dynamics optimal behavior is rather simple and straightforward in the sense of conditional consumption smoothing. Participants achieve a rather high degree of efficiency that does not change over time. A substantial number of participants does not care whether their partner receives any payoff. This extremely selfish behavior is punished by their respective partners.
intra-household behavior, experimental economics, other regarding attitudes, reputation formation
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21.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Sandra Gueth University of Bielefeld
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21 Mar 01
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01 Sep 04
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50 (118,748)
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Abstract:
Endogenous timing can help to derive the time structure of decision making instead of assuming it as exogenously given. In our study we consider a homogeneous market where, like in the model of Kreps and Scheinkman (1983), sellers determine sales capacities before prices. Sellers must serve customers, but at higher costs when demand exceeds capacitiy. Our model allows for preemption in capacity as well as in price determination. Since preemption means to decide before the random choice of cost parameters reflecting the stochastic nature of (excess) capacity costs, preemptive commitments are no obviously better timing dispositions.
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22.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics M. Vittoria Levati Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Strategic Interaction Group Torsten Weiland Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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17 Oct 07
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26 Jun 09
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49 (119,862)
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Abstract:
In a public goods experiment, subjects can vary over a period of stochastic length two contribution levels: one is publicly observable (their cheap talk stated intention), while the other is not seen by the others (their secret intention). When the period suddenly stops, participants are restricted to choose as actual contribution either current alternative. Based on the two types of choice data for a partners and a perfect strangers condition, we confirm that final outcomes strongly depend on the matching protocol. As to choice dynamics, we distinguish different types of adaptations.
Public goods game, Cheap talk communication, Real-time protocol
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23.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Maria Vittoria Levati Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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06 Dec 07
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06 Dec 07
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44 (125,409)
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Abstract:
We report on an experiment designed to explore whether allowing individuals to voice their anger prevents costly punishment. For this sake, we use an ultimatum minigame and distinguish two treatments: one in which responders can only accept or reject the offer, and the other in which they can also scold the proposer. By an unannounced successive two-person public goods game, with either the same partner or a different one, we additionally explore how "having a voice" affects later behavior. The evidence supports the conclusion that voicing one's outrage crowds out the need to harm oneself and the other. Yet, this emotional reaction does not lead to increased future cooperation.
Ultimatum bargaining, Public goods game, Outrage, Punishment
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24.
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Thomas Gehrig University of Freiburg Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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13 Oct 06
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13 Oct 06
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39 (131,447)
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Abstract:
We analyze how transparency affects information acquisition in a bargaining context, where proposers may chose to purchase information about the unknown outside option of their bargaining partner. Although information acquisition is excessive in all our scenarios we find that the bargaining outcome depends crucially on the transparency of the bargaining environment. In transparent games, when responders can observe whether proposers have acquired information, acceptance rates are higher. Accordingly, in transparent bargaining environments information is more valuable, both individually and socially.
Information acquisition, ultimatum experiment, transparency
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25.
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Dorothea Alewell Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena Colette Friedrich Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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13 Jul 07
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13 Jul 07
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38 (132,722)
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2
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Abstract:
We study the relevance of fairness norms in an experimental scenario in which hired and rented hands are co-employed and stochastic influences and multiple reference points for fairness further increase complexity. Co-employment of hired and rented hands is an example out of a broader class of situations with multiple fairness standards. Co-employment has high political relevance and topicality in Europe, and especially in Germany, where a new equal payment rule affecting temporary work agencies has become law. To shed new light on the relevance of fairness norms in complex settings, we explore theoretically and experimentally the possible fairness considerations of the participants.
Fairness, Principal-agent Problem, Temporary Agency Work, Wage Discrimination
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26.
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Siegfried Berninghaus Institut fuer Statistik und Mathematische Wirtscha Sabrina Bleich University of Karlsruhe Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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23 Oct 07
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04 Nov 07
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35 (136,567)
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Abstract:
Facing a stochastic market wage, which is independent of their own hiring policy, employers offer contracts specifying fixed wage, revenue share and employment duration. In ongoing employment relations it depends on the treatment whether fixed wages can be only increased or also decreased. Will the uncertainty of the future market wage and less wage flexibility lead to temporary employment? And, if not, will employers adjust wages to changing market wages and will workers in ongoing employment relations react to wage decreases via effort choices? Our results partly question empirical claims, e.g. of Bewley (1995), and confirm the tendency to establish ongoing employment relations. Granting more wage flexibility to employers altogether questions rather than enhances efficiency since it induces opportunistic wage cuts to which employees react with lower efforts.
noncooperative game, labor contracts, labor market flexibility, principal-agent theory, experimental economics
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27.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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18 Oct 07
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28 Oct 07
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34 (137,966)
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Abstract:
Can one define and test the hypothesis of (un)bounded rationality in stochastic choice tasks without endorsing Bayesianism? Similar to the state specificity of assets, we rely on state-specific goal formation. In a given choice task, the list of state-specific goal levels is optimal if one cannot increase the goal level for one state without having to decrease that for other states. We show that this allows to relate optimality more easily to bounded rationality where we interpret goal levels as aspirations. If for the latter there exist choices satisfying all state-specific aspirations and if one such choice is used, we speak of satisficing which may or may not be optimal.
satisficing, bounded rationality, optimality
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28.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics M. Vittoria Levati Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Strategic Interaction Group Matteo Ploner Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Strategic Interaction Group
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19 Oct 07
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04 Dec 07
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33 (139,387)
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Abstract:
Contrary to the models of deterministic life cycle saving, we take it for granted that uncertainty of one's future is the essential problem of saving decisions. However, unlike the stochastic life cycle models, we capture this crucial uncertainty by a non-Bayesian scenario-based satisficing approach. Decision makers first form aspirations for a few relevant scenarios, and then search for saving plans satisficing these aspirations. In addition to formally specifying scenario-based satisficing in saving, we explore it experimentally. The results confirm that optimal intertemporal allocations are difficult to derive, and suggest that satisficing allocations can be reached easily when aspirations are incentivized.
Intertemporal allocation decisions, Bayesian updating, Satisficing behavior
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29.
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Sebastian J. Goerg University of Bonn - Laboratory for Experimental Economics Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Gari Walkowitz University of Bonn - Laboratory for Experimental Economics Torsten Weiland Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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05 Oct 07
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05 Oct 07
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33 (139,387)
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Abstract:
Does geographic distance or the perceived social distance between subjects significantly affect proposer and responder behavior in ultimatum bargaining? To answer this question, subjects play a one-shot ultimatum game with three players (proposer, responder, and a passive dummy player) and asymmetric information (only the proposer knows what can be distributed). Treatments differ in their geographic scope by involving either one or three different locations in Germany. Observed behavior reflects the robust stylized facts of this class of ultimatum experiments and can be adequately explained by other-regarding preferences. While responder behavior does not condition on co-players' location of residence, self-interest of proposers varies significantly with the latter. Altogether, we do not detect strong discrimination based on geographic distance.
ultimatum bargaining, cross-cultural experiments, social preferences
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30.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics M. Vittoria Levati Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Strategic Interaction Group Matteo Ploner Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Strategic Interaction Group
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04 Oct 07
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Last Revised:
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09 Oct 07
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32 (140,809)
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Abstract:
Previous studies have shown that decision makers are less other-regarding when their own payoff is risky than when it is sure. Empirical observations also indicate that people care more about identifiable than unidentifiable others. In this paper, we report on an experiment designed to explore whether rendering the other identifiable − via a short speechless video − can affect the relation between other-regarding concerns and attitudes toward social risk. For this sake, we elicit risk attitudes under two treatments differing in whether the actor can see the other or not. We find that seeing the other does not affect behavior significantly: regardless of the treatment, individuals are mainly self-oriented as to social allocation of risk, though they are other-regarding with respect to expected payoff levels.
Risk attitudes, other-regarding concerns, identifiability
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31.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Matthias Sutter University of Innsbruck - Department of Public Economics Sabine Straub University of Innsbruck - Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences
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| Posted: |
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19 Jan 05
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Last Revised:
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29 Mar 05
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30 (143,850)
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Abstract:
In an overlapping generations experiment with multiple families participants can support their parents directly and thereby reduce their tax burden or rely on tax-financed old-age support. State productivity is captured by the factor with which total tax revenues are multiplied to determine old-age support. This factor is systematically varied from 0.75 to 1.25. Tax payments depend on declared endowment. Tax evasion is possible, but monitored. Our results suggest that state productivity influences neither direct support of own parents nor tax evasion. The main effect is that rich endowment triggers relatively low support of own parents and high (and more frequent) tax evasion.
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32.
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Jürgen Eichberger University of Heidelberg - Alfred Weber Institute for Economics Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Wieland Müller Tilburg University - Department of Economics
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| Posted: |
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09 Aug 03
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Last Revised:
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09 Aug 03
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30 (143,850)
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2
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Abstract:
The evaluations of a repeated lottery with and without the option to sell the second-stage lottery are compared theoretically and experimentally. Comparing individuals' risk attitudes, we find that risk attitudes differ depending on the measure of risk attitude applied. We also find that subjects show low or no risk aversion, but put very high value on the opportunity to sell the lottery in the second stage of the decision problem. These findings cast doubts on the suitability of the random price mechanism for truthful revelation of willingness to pay in sequential decision problems.
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33.
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Anthony de Jasay Independent Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Harmut Kliemt University of Duisberg Axel Ockenfels University of Cologne - Department of Economics
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| Posted: |
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04 Jul 04
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Last Revised:
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21 Jul 04
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27 (149,304)
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Abstract:
Most social scientists' views of conflict and cooperation in society are shaped by very elementary, one-off, two by two symmetric simultaneous move games like prisoner's dilemma, chicken, assurance or stag hunt. We think that this diet of examples leads to biased accounts in particular of distributional conflict, and therefore suggest that asymmetry in payoffs and move structure be taken into account systematically. In this paper a new paradigm of asymmetric games to study basic distributional conflicts is introduced, illustrated numerically and discussed theoretically. The results of exploratory experiments on the empirical side of the matter are also reported.
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34.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Wieland Müller Tilburg University - Department of Economics Jan J.M. Potters Tilburg University - CentER
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| Posted: |
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27 Sep 05
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Last Revised:
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13 Oct 05
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23 (158,653)
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Abstract:
We study a market in which both buyers and sellers can decide to preempt and set their quantities before market clearing. Will this lead to preemption on both sides of the market, only one side of the market, or to no preemption at all? We find that preemption tends to be asymmetric in the sense that it is restricted to only one side of the market (buyers or sellers).
preemptio,; endogenous timing
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35.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Theo Offerman University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics (FEE) Jan J.M. Potters Tilburg University - CentER Martin Strobel Maastricht University - Department of Economics Harrie A.A. Verbon Tilburg University - CentER
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| Posted: |
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19 May 03
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Last Revised:
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19 May 03
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23 (158,653)
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Abstract:
We give an account of an overlapping-generations experiment with multiple families in which voluntary transfers can take the form of support to the elderly or grants to children. Support to the old is a purely intergenerational (intra-family) transfer, whereas grants to children also involve an element of intra-generational (inter-family) redistribution through a compulsory pension system. Our data show that higher compulsory inter-family transfers lead subjects to place relatively more emphasis on support instead of grants: Grants are crowded out, but support is not significantly affected. The efficiency of voluntary transfers increases, however. Furthermore, if subjects give transfers, they do not use tokens of direct reciprocity; evidence of indirect reciprocity in transfer behavior can only be obtained for the case where compulsory transfers are high.
Experiments, with-in family transfers, overlapping generations, redistributive public-pension system, crowding out, reciprocity
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36.
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Sandra Gueth University of Bielefeld Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Harmut Kliemt University of Duisberg
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| Posted: |
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10 Feb 03
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Last Revised:
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10 Feb 03
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23 (158,653)
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Abstract:
Conventional stochastic models of evolutionary processes with infinitely many agents are deterministic models in disguise. Only finite population models become truly stochastic. Therefore this paper focuses on an indirect evolutionary model of pair wise interaction in a pool of three (corresponding to analysing oligopolies in terms of duopoly markets). The outcomes of the process over the long haul are characterized by the stationary distribution of the underlying Markov process. Our example indicates that intermediate cases cannot be seen as convex combinations of the two polar non-stochastic cases of two or infinitely many individuals.
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37.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Carsten Schmidt University of Mannheim - Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Matthias Sutter University of Innsbruck - Department of Public Economics
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| Posted: |
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11 Apr 07
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Last Revised:
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18 Aug 07
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21 (164,193)
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Abstract:
5,132 readers of the German weekly, Die Zeit, participated in a three-person bargaining experiment. In our data analysis we focus on (1) the influence of age, gender, profession and medium chosen for participation and (2) the external validity of student behaviour (inside and outside the lab). We find that older participants and women care more about equal distributions and that Internet users are more self-regarding than those using mail or fax. Decisions made by students in the lab are rather similar to those made by participants in the newspaper experiment, indicating a high degree of external validity of student data.
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38.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel Humboldt University of Berlin - Faculty of Economics Steve Tjotta University of Bergen - Department of Economics
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| Posted: |
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01 Apr 04
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Last Revised:
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13 Oct 04
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20 (167,067)
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Abstract:
Empirical studies in family economics usually rely on questionnaires, statistical data or panel data. Here we try to study experimentally some crucial aspects of engaging in a marriage. The female partner can end the relationship or suggest one of two forms of joint venture where more labor division makes her more exploitable by her partner. More specifically, the random profit of the joint venture is allocated by ultimatum bargaining in the case of a full engagement whereas marriage bargaining is procedurally fair in the case of a low engagement. Our treatment variables are her and his outside options representing different attitudes to investing in human capital.
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39.
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Sven Fischer Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Kerstin Pull University of Trier - Institut of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the EC (IAAEG)
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| Posted: |
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02 May 07
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Last Revised:
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10 Sep 07
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17 (175,656)
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1
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Abstract:
To commit in bargaining is crucial: in the ultimatum game with its one-sided commitment power the 'proposer' (almost) receives the whole pie while the 'responder' is left with (almost) nothing. When bargaining parties commit simultaneously the symmetric Nash (Econometrica, 1950, vol. 18, pp. 155-162) bargaining solution predicts equal shares. Continuously connecting these two games yields a one-parameter family of games (Fischer etal., Experimental Economics, 2006, vol. 9, pp. 17-33) for which we distinguish two behavioral dispositions, namely (1) neglecting commitment power and (2) reacting to it strategically. Their pay-off implications define the evolutionary set-up for which we derive the evolutionarily stable behavioral disposition. Our analysis sheds light on the hypothesis that in experiments participants neglect strategic aspects such as commitment power.
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40.
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Dennis Alexis Valin Dittrich Jacobs University Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Martin G. G. Kocher University of Innsbruck - Institute of Public Finance Paul Pezanis-Christou University of Strasbourg - Bureau of Economic Theory and Application (BETA)
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| Posted: |
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27 Oct 09
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Last Revised:
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27 Oct 09
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14 (184,290)
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1
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Abstract:
Bidding challenges learning theories, since with the same bid, experiences vary stochastically: the same choice can result in either a gain or a loss. In such an environment the question arises how the nearly universally documented phenomenon of loss aversion affects the adaptive dynamics. We analyse the impact of loss aversion in a simple auction using the experienced-weighted attraction model. Our experimental results suggest that individual learning dynamics are highly heterogeneous and affected by loss aversion to different degrees. In any case, the experiment shows that loss aversion is not specific to rare decision making.
loss aversion, bidding, auction, experiment, EWA learning
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41.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Stefan Napel University of Hamburg - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
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| Posted: |
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13 Oct 06
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Last Revised:
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08 Feb 07
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13 (187,181)
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Abstract:
The indirect evolutionary approach integrates forward-looking evaluation of opportunities and adaptation in the light of the past. Subjective motivation determines behaviour, but long-run evolutionary success of motivational types depends on objective factors only. This can justify intrinsic aversion to inequality in reward allocation games. Whereas earlier analysis was restricted to specific games, this article considers a more complex environment comprising different games which - studied in isolation - yield opposite implications. Persistent divergence between intrinsic motivation and true material success is possible depending on the definition of inequality aversion as well as on agents ability to discriminate between games.
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42.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel Humboldt University of Berlin - Faculty of Economics Sabine Kröger University of Laval - Département d'Économique
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| Posted: |
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12 Jun 06
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Last Revised:
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10 Jan 07
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10 (195,905)
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Abstract:
We experimentally examine the efficiency and profitability of two different procurement auctions allowing for quality differences across products. We compare the vector auction with more competition on the sellers' side with a half-auction, reflecting actual procurement practice - an auction for the cheaper variant and bargaining with the contractor about the additional cost of the better quality variant. Our main hypothesis, that buyers are better off when using the vector auction instead of the half-auction, is confirmed when quality differences of variants are large and the uncertainty of the cost difference is also large.
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43.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics M. Vittoria Levati Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Strategic Interaction Group Matteo Ploner Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
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| Posted: |
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18 Apr 08
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Last Revised:
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18 Apr 08
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2 (213,727)
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Abstract:
When explaining risk taking, inter-temporal allocation, and distributing behavior, economists rely on risk, time, and other-regarding preferences but offer no guidance on how these three crucial aspects are interrelated. We report on an experiment exploring such interrelation. For this sake, we compare evaluations of several prospects, each of which allocates certain or risky and immediate or delayed payoffs to the actor and to another participant. We find that individuals are self-oriented as to social allocation of risk and delay and other-regarding with respect to expected payoffs.
C91, D63, D81
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44.
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Siegfried Berninghaus Institut fuer Statistik und Mathematische Wirtscha Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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| Posted: |
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13 Oct 09
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Last Revised:
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13 Oct 09
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0 (0)
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Abstract:
On a symmetric homogeneous oligopoly market with stochastic demand, firms can either hire employees or buy their labor input on a competitive labor market. Whereas the wage of hired labor does not depend on the realization of stochastic demand, the price of ‘bought’ labor reacts positively to product demand. We derive the equilibrium price vector to define an evolutionary process, assuming that the number of hiring firms increases when they earn more than buying firms. We then derive and discuss the stationary distribution of this stochastic adaptation process.
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45.
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Uwe Cantner Friedrich Schiller University Jena Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Andreas Nicklisch Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Torsten Weiland Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Economics
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| Posted: |
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13 Oct 09
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Last Revised:
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13 Oct 09
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0 (0)
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Abstract:
We experimentally investigate competition for innovations in a patent race scenario. Pairs of subjects compete as seller firms on a duopoly market, investing in risky search. Successful innovations resulting thereof are rewarded via temporary monopoly rents. Classifying investor types reveals that most of them invest according to objective investment criteria, such as probability of search success and cash flow, as well as to non-pecuniary criteria, such as intensity of competition and relative performance. For a minority, however, no such correlation is ascertained.
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46.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Nikos Nikiforakis University of Melbourne - Department of Economics Hans Theo Normann Goethe University Frankfurt
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| Posted: |
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21 Dec 06
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Last Revised:
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21 Dec 06
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0 (0)
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Abstract:
This paper analyzes vertical cross-shareholding, that is, the mutual holding of a minority of shares between vertically related firms. First, we explore the issue in a game-theoretic model and show that cross-shareholding is sufficient to obtain efficient outcomes. We then test the model's predictions in an experiment. Theory predicts the seller decisions accurately but the buyer decisions only to a small extent. Buyers are more likely to agree on cross-shareholding than sellers in an attempt to avoid the winner's curse. Cross-shareholding occurs more frequently than predicted, and it increases the likelihood of trade.
cross-shareholding, winner's curse, experiments, vertical merger
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47.
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Judit Kovacs University of Debrecen Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Manfred Königstein University of Erfurt
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| Posted: |
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20 Nov 03
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Last Revised:
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20 Nov 03
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0 (0)
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Abstract:
Many experimental studies report evidence of fairness in bargaining games. More recently fairness and its consequences for productive efficiency have been explored in principal-agent games, in which a single principal meets a single agent. However, in most organizations, there are usually many agents in one layer of a firm's hierarchy. Consequently, fairness considerations may be based on a comparison between layers (vertical fairness) as well as within a layer (horizontal fairness). In this paper we report an experiment in which a principal faces two agents with deterministic but unequal productivity. The experimental treatment variable is the information that one agent has about the other agent's contract offer. When work contracts are observable, the principal offers less asymmetric contracts (pay compression) than when contracts are not observable, i.e., horizontal fairness matters.
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48.
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Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel Humboldt University of Berlin - Faculty of Economics Manfred Königstein University of Erfurt Martin Strobel Maastricht University - Department of Economics
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| Posted: |
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26 Aug 03
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Last Revised:
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01 Mar 04
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0 (0)
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Abstract:
In auctions a seller offers a commodity for sale and collects the revenue. In fair division games the object is collectively owned by the group of bidders who equally share the revenue. We run an experiment in which the participants face four types of allocation games (auctions and fair division game under two price rules, first- versus second-price rule). We collect entire bid functions rather than bids for single values and investigate price and efficiency of the different trading institutions. We find that the first-price auction is more efficient than the second-price auction, whereas economic rationality assuming heterogeneous bidders suggests the opposite. Furthermore, we study the structure of individual bid functions.
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49.
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Robert J. Aumann Hebrew University of Jerusalem Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics
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| Posted: |
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20 Sep 00
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Last Revised:
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20 Sep 00
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0 (0)
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Abstract:
Whoever exists belongs to a species, which did not become extinct, has a (geno-)type, which should be well adjusted, and lives in a habitat which has been sustainable for a long time. We do not only analyze interspecies competition and the conditions for species survival, but also intraspecies competition of (geno-)types as in evolutionary biology and game theory. Survival in inter- and intraspecies competition together with sustainability define ecological stability, a concept which we illustrate by an example of solitary and social grazers who compete for food supply and who are endangered by the same predators. Although our approach is inspired by empirical evidence, no systematic attempt is made to apply it to some specific ecology.
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50.
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M. Burda Tilburg University, CentER Werner Guth Max Planck Institute of Economics Georg Kirchsteiger Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES) Harald Uhlig Humboldt University of Berlin - Faculty of Economics
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| Posted: |
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08 Feb 00
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Last Revised:
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18 Nov 08
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0 (0)
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Abstract:
One of the long-standing puzzles in economics is why wages do not fall sufficiently in recessions so as to avoid increases in unemployment. Put differently, if the competitive market wage declines, why don't employers simply force their employees to accept lower wages as well? As an alternative to reviewing statistical data we have performed an experiment with a lower competitive wage in the second phase of an employment relationship that is known to both parties. Our hypothesis is that employers will not lower wages correspondingly and that employees will resist such wage cuts. Our experiment casts two subjects in the highly stylized roles of employer and employee. We find at most mild evidence for resistance to wage declines. Instead, the experimental results can be more fruitfully interpreted in terms of an "ultimatum game", in which some surplus between employers and employees is split. In this view, wages and their lack of decline are simply the mechanical tool for accomplishing this split.
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