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Abstract:
This paper examines how uncertainty regarding future mortality and life expectancy outcomes, i.e. longevity risk, affects employer-provided defined benefit (DB) private pension plans liabilities. The paper argues that to assess uncertainty and associated risks adequately, a stochastic approach to model mortality and life expectancy is preferable because it permits to attach probabilities to different forecasts. In this regard, the paper provides the results of estimating the Lee-Carter model for several OECD countries. Furthermore, it conveys the uncertainty surrounding future mortality and life expectancy outcomes by means of Monte-Carlo simulations of the Lee-Carter model.

In order to assess the impact of longevity risk on employer-provided DB pension plans, the paper examines the different approaches that private pension plans follow in practice when incorporating longevity risk in their actuarial calculations. Unfortunately, most pension funds do not fully account for future improvements in mortality and life expectancy. The paper then presents estimations of the range of increase in the net present value of annuity payments for a theoretical DB pension fund. Finally, the paper discusses several policy issues on how to deal with longevity risk emphasizing the need for a common approach.

Demographic forecast, mortality and life expectancy, life tables, longevity risk, retirement, private pensions, defined-benefit pension plans, Lee-Carter models, Monte Carlo methods, histograms

Abstract:
This paper examines the channels through which ageing will shape the main economic factors that in turn affect potential growth; identifies current policy settings that may in fact amplify the adverse impact of demographic trends; and sets out policy reforms that will work to temper the effects of ageing on growth. The paper begins with a brief discussion of demographic issues. The analysis first focuses on the impact of these trends on the future level and structure of consumption, which may affect aggregate saving and the structure of the economy, respectively. Then, it explores the main channels through which ageing affects the supply side of the economy following a production function approach: capital markets, labour markets and productivity. The empirical analysis focuses on a subset of large OECD countries with differing ageing patterns and generosity of pension systems. Using a simple general equilibrium overlapping generations model and considering alternative reform scenarios, some illustrative simulations are presented decomposing the effects of ageing on potential GDP per capita growth and economic convergence within OECD countries.

Ageing populations, longevity, overlapping generation model, pension reforms, employability, old workers, economic convergence

Abstract:
This paper provides new projections on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed upon set of assumptions about macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to pension systems have partly offset the impact on spending of an increasingly elderly population, and there has been a major improvement in the underlying fiscal situation in the 1990s. However, further age-related spending (including old age pensions, health and spending associated with children) is still projected to increase on average around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP over the projection period. This calls for maintaining the reform effort and intensifying it in several countries, if fiscal sustainability is to be maintained.

Ageing populations, pensions, health care, long-term projections

Abstract:
This study examines the dynamics of poverty for four OECD countries (Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States). It provides information on patterns of poverty, which groups stay in poverty the longest, and household/individual characteristics and life-course events which appear to be most closely associated with transitions into and out of poverty and the length of time individuals stay in poverty. The analysis finds that the number of people touched by poverty over a six year period is significantly larger that the poverty rate might suggest, but the share of those staying poor for a long time is much smaller. The data suggest that longer-term poor are concentrated among women, lone parents and older single individuals. The study finds that employment status is the main factor affecting transitions into and out of poverty and the duration of poverty.

Abstract:
Uncertainty about length of life, longevity risk, is a growing financial problem for pension funds and annuity providers. They would like to transfer longevity risk away to institutions better placed to deal with it. Unfortunately, there is a lack of financial instruments to hedge against this longevity risk, thereby complicating risk management by pension funds and hindering the expansion of the annuity market. Consequently, this paper examines the role of government in promoting a private market solution for longevity hedging financial products. Governments could improve the market for annuities by issuing longevity indexed bonds and by producing a longevity index. The paper argues though that this public policy role is hampered by the fact that governments are themselves are already exposed to significant longevity risk. However, governments could take other steps such as producing a longevity index.

Uncertainty; longevity risk; pension funds; DB and DC plans; annuities; financial instruments; hedging; longevity-indexed bonds; indices; longevity index

Abstract:
This paper reviews the impact of aging on private pensions, in particular on the payout phase, assesses the part that annuities can play in financing retirement, and examines the role of financial markets in facilitating the allocation on assets accumulated in defined contribution pension plans. A comprehensive set of recommendations for discussion is provided at the end of the paper.

Defined contribution pension plans, annuities, programmed withdrawal, lump-sums, retirement income, annuity providers, insurance companies, annuity markets, deferred life annuities, longevity risk, long-term bonds, longevity-indexed bonds and longevity index

Abstract:
This report provides an analysis of aggregate investment performance by country on a risk adjusted basis using relatively standard investment performance measures. The report also describes privately managed pension funds around the world and the regulatory environment they face. It compares pension funds across countries according to total assets under management and asset allocation, and briefly discusses certain issues surrounding the data reported by pension funds and regulators on investment returns.

Investment performance, pension funds, returns on investment, asset allocation, Sharpe ratio, Markowitz mean-variance portfolio maximization

Abstract:
This paper provides estimates of the implicit fiscal assets as well as of the evolution over time of fiscal costs and revenues related to tax-favoured retirement saving regimes in 17 OECD countries, taking into account current and future contributions, asset accumulation and withdrawals, all of which will be strongly influenced by future demographic developments. The main results show that in the case where tax incentives are assumed to lead essentially to saving diversion rather than creation, the net budgetary cost of tax-favoured schemes would remain large, despite the sharp rise in revenues collected from withdrawals as population ages. The paper shows that this cost would significantly be reduced if tax-favoured schemes succeed in promoting additional private savings. It then explores a number of policy options to maximise the amount of additional saving.

Ageing, tax-favoured, tax-deferred, private pensions, retirement savings, fiscal revenues, public deficits

Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact of different quantitative approaches to regulate investment risk on the retirement income stemming from defined contribution (DC) pension plans. It looks at how such regulations affect the spectrum of investment policies available and, through this channel, how they affect the retirement income that an individual may expect from a DC pension plan. The analysis shows that there is a trade-off between potential retirement income and protection from bad outcomes. Reducing the downside risk on retirement income from DC pension plans requires moving into relatively conservative investment policies where the share of assets allocated to bonds may be quite large. However, this comes at the cost of renouncing potentially higher replacement rates that are attainable but at a higher risk of unfavourable retirement income outcomes. Less risk adverse regulators and supervisors would aim at lower probability requirements as regard the downside risk, which will increase the range of investment policies available and thus the share of riskier assets.

investment, regulations, defined contribution pension plans, retirement income, replacement

Abstract:
This paper assesses how countries' pension arrangements and regulation shape the appropriate structure and flexibility of retirement payout options. The paper aims at providing a guide to policy makers on how to address the diverse questions posed when designing the payout phase or promoting DC pension arrangements, as well as encouraging a market for annuities. The paper addresses questions concerning the type of retirement payout options for accumulated assets in DC plans a country should allow, which entities should provide annuities, and the type of annuity products that could be allowed. The main recommendation is for policy makers to consider mandating deferred life annuities that start paying at very old ages (e.g. at age 85) and allow for the remaining assets accumulated in DC accounts to be allocated as programmed withdrawals (preferably with flexibility to face contingencies).

Annuities, programmed withdrawal, lump-sums, retirement income, annuity providers, insurance companies, annuity markets, longevity risk, and deferred life annuities

Abstract:
The current generation of workers can expect lower pension benefits in retirement than the current generation of pensioners. Private, voluntary pension savings will therefore play a greater role in providing for old age. This paper calculates the size of the "pension gap": the difference between the benefits from mandatory retirement-income provision and a target pension level. It then computes the amount that people would need to save to achieve the target.

Data on coverage of private, voluntary pension schemes in a range of OECD countries are then presented. The paper also shows how coverage varies with age and earnings. The results show significant gaps in coverage, particularly among low earners and younger workers. The effect could be a resurgence of old-age poverty when these generations reach retirement. Data on contributions to private pensions show that these are, on average, at a level likely to fill the pension gap. Expanding coverage rather than raising contribution rates should therefore be the policy priority.

Five policy options for increasing coverage are assessed: (i) mandating private pensions; (ii) "soft compulsion", which is automatic enrollment in private pensions but with an opt-out; (iii) facilitating access to the means for saving for retirement; (iv) preferential tax treatment of retirement savings; and (v) improving financial awareness.

Abstract:
This paper focuses on describing the international practice on the various forms of retirement benefit payment currently allowed in countries throughout the world and the regulatory environment surrounding these different forms of benefit payment. The analysis suggests considerable variance between countries. Some countries only allow one form of retirement payment, while others allow several forms or even a combination of them. Examining country practices as regard the providers of benefit payments, suggest that lump-sums and programmed withdrawals are generally provided by pension funds; while, as regard life annuities, providers varied from insurance companies, to pension funds, financial intermediaries and a centralized annuity fund. The paper ends by examining the role of taxation where a choice between different types of benefit payments is allowed. Tax provision plays a key direct or indirect role in influencing payout options. Cross country evidence is varied but suggests that there is often an unequal tax treatment of the various forms of retirement payout options

benefit payments at retirement, lump-sums, programmed withdrawals, life annuities, regulatory environment, pension funds, insurance companies, financial intermediaries, centralized annuity fund, taxation

Abstract:
This paper presents comparable and standardized data on coverage in voluntary funded pension plans for several OECD countries using household survey data by age, income level, and labor market status for occupational and personal pension plans. The analysis suggests that coverage is unevenly distributed across individuals and there is therefore a need to increase it, at least among the young and the mid-to-low income. The paper ends assessing different policies to increase coverage.

Pension funds, coverage, household survey data