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Abstract:
We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In both markets exposure to this factor is priced, and in the Japanese case, we document evidence of negative correlations between â¬SBullâ¬? and â¬SBearâ¬? domestic funds. The flows to bear foreign funds in Japan display some evidence of negative correlation to domestic and foreign equity funds, suggesting that there is a foreign vs. domestic sentiment factor in Japan that does not appear in the contemporaneous U.S. data. By contrast, U.S. mutual fund investors appear to regard domestic and foreign equity mutual funds as economic substitutes.

Abstract:
We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In both markets exposure to this factor is priced, and in the Japanese case, we document evidence of negative correlations between â¬SBullâ¬? and â¬SBearâ¬? domestic funds. The flows to bear foreign funds in Japan display some evidence of negative correlation to domestic and foreign equity funds, suggesting that there is a foreign vs. domestic sentiment factor in Japan that does not appear in the contemporaneous U.S. data. By contrast, U.S.mutual fund investors appear to regard domestic and foreign equity mutual funds aseconomic substitutes.

Abstract:
We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In both markets exposure to this factor is priced, and in the Japanese case, we document evidence of negative correlations between 'Bull' and 'Bear' domestic funds. The flows to bear foreign funds in Japan display some evidence of negative correlation to domestic and foreign equity funds, suggesting that there is a foreign vs. domestic sentiment factor in Japan that does not appear in the contemporaneous U.S. data. By contrast, U.S. mutual fund investors appear to regard domestic and foreign equity mutual funds as economic substitutes.

Abstract:
We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In both markets exposure to this factor is priced, and in the Japanese case, we document evidence of negative correlations between "Bull" and "Bear" domestic funds. The flows to bear foreign funds in Japan display some evidence of negative correlation to foreign bull and equity funds. They appear to be independent of domestic bull and bear fund flows, suggesting that there is a foreign vs. domestic sentiment factor in Japan that does not appear in the contemporaneous U.S. data. By contrast, U.S. mutual fund investors appear to regard domestic and foreign equity mutual funds as economic complements.

Investor Sentiment, Mutual Fund Flows, Bull and Bear Funds, Factor Pricing Mod

Abstract:
This paper investigates whether one can profit from the size, book-to-market, or momentum anomaly, when price-impact costs are taken into account. A non-linear price-impact function is individually estimated for 5173 stocks to assess the magnitude of trading costs. Compared to constant proportional transaction costs (as typically assumed in the literature), a concave price-impact function tends to assign a higher impact cost to mid-size trades and a lower impact to large-size trades. We implement long-short arbitrage strategies based on each such anomaly, and estimate the maximal fund size possible before excess returns become negative. For all anomalies, the maximal fund sizes are small in order to remain profitable. Markets are therefore bounded-rational: price-impact costs deter agents from exploiting the anomalies.

Stock market anomaly, Price-impact function, Arbitrage, Fund size limit

Abstract:
This paper studies whether stock returns' sensitivities to aggregate liquidity fluctuations and the pricing of liquidity risk vary over time. We find that liquidity betas vary across two distinct states: one with high liquidity betas and the other with low betas. The high liquidity-beta state is short lived and characterized by heavy trade, high volatility, and a wide cross-sectional dispersion in liquidity betas. It also delivers a disproportionately large liquidity risk premium, amounting to more than twice the value premium. Our results are consistent with a model of liquidity risk in which investors face uncertainty about their trading counterparties' preferences.

G12

Abstract:
This paper studies whether stock returns' sensitivities to aggregate liquidity fluctuations and the pricing of liquidity risk vary over time. We find that liquidity betas vary across two distinct states, one with high liquidity betas and the other with low betas. The high liquidity-beta state is short lived and characterized by heavy trade, high volatility, and a wide cross-sectional dispersion in liquidity betas. It also delivers a disproportionately large liquidity risk premium, amounting to more than twice the value premium. Our results are consistent with a model of liquidity risk in which investors face uncertainty about their trading counterparties' preferences.

time-varying liquidity beta, liquidity risk premium, preference uncertainty, cross-sectional asset pricing test, regime switching model

Abstract:
This paper studies whether stock returns' sensitivities to aggregate liquidity fluctuations and the pricing of liquidity risk vary over time. We find that liquidity betas vary across two distinct states: one with high liquidity betas and the other with low betas. The high liquidity-beta state is short lived and characterized by heavy trade, high volatility, and a wide cross-sectional dispersion in liquidity betas. It also delivers a disproportionately large liquidity risk premium, amounting to more than twice the value premium. Our results are consistent with a model of liquidity risk in which investors face uncertainty about their trading counterparties' preferences.

Time-varying liquidity beta, liquidity risk premium, preference uncertainty, cross-sectional asset pricing test, regime switching model

Abstract:
This paper proposes a dynamic multi-security model in which liquidity reflects stochastic variation, persistence, and commonality of underlying information variance. Illiquidity, price-change variance, and trading volume all increase in the size of information. Using high frequency data, I perform structural estimation of the model by Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo simulation, with the conditional volatility of underlying information modeled as stochastic volatility or realized volatility controlling for microstructure noise. I find that a Dow stock's liquidity decreases in the size of information about not only itself but also about other Dow stocks, demonstrating a significant cross-sectional effect of information on liquidity.

Kyle model, liquidity, stochastic and realized volatility, Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC), GARCH, trading volume

Abstract:
This paper examines the pricing implications of time-variation in assets' market betas over the business cycle in a conditional CAPM framework. We use a half century of real GDP growth expectations from economists' surveys to determine forecasted economic states. This approach largely avoids the confounding effects of econometric forecasting model error. The expectation measure forecasts the market return controlling for existing predictive variables. The loadings on the expectation measure explain a significant fraction of cross-sectional variation in stock returns. A fully tradable, ex ante mimicking portfolio generates positive risk-adjusted returns during good economic times over four decades.

conditional CAPM, beta-instability risk, value and growth betas, time-varying premium, business cycle, Livingston Survey, investor expectations

Abstract:
This paper studies an overlapping-generations model with multiple securities and heterogeneously informed agents. The model produces multiple equilibria, including highly volatile equilibria that can exhibit strong or weak correlations between asset returns--even when asset supplies and future dividends are uncorrelated across assets. Less informed agents rationally behave like trend-followers, while better informed agents follow contrarian strategies. Trading volume has a hump-shaped relation with information precision and is positively correlated with absolute price changes. Accurate information increases the stock-return volatility and correlation in the highly volatile, strongly correlated equilibrium.

overlapping generations, noisy rational expectations equilibrium, excessive volatility, comovement, trend-following behavior, contrarians

Abstract:
This paper studies an overlapping generations model with multiple securities and heterogeneously informed agents. The model produces multiple equilibria, including highly volatile equilibria that can exhibit strong or weak correlations between asset returns - even when asset supplies and future dividends are uncorrelated across assets. Less informed agents rationally behave like trend-followers, while better informed agents follow contrarian strategies. Trading volume has a hump-shaped relation with information precision and is positively correlated with absolute price changes. Finally, accurate information increases the volatility and correlation of stock returns in the highly volatile, strongly correlated equilibrium.

overlapping generations, noisy rational expectations equilibrium, excessive volatility, comovement, trend-following behavior, contrarians

Abstract:
When a firm exercises discretion to disclose or withhold information (strategic disclosure), risk-averse investors command higher expected returns when expected cash flows decrease, producing a negative correlation between these expectations. Moreover, stock returns exhibit stronger reversal than they do when full disclosure is enforced. We propose a model that makes these predictions and provide consistent evidence using a panel of foreign firms that list ADRs. We find significant shifts in the time-series properties of stock returns for firms that undergo large changes in disclosure environments, such as those cross-listing on the NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ and those from less-developed/emerging markets and code-law countries.

Strategic disclosure, international financial markets, ADR cross-listing, return-news decomposition, panel VAR

Abstract:
This paper finds a significant positive relation between illiquidity and conditional variance of stock returns, both at the individual and aggregate levels. For each of the largest two hundred stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ, we estimate a GARCH model in which share turnover and proportional spread enter the conditional variance equitation. We find that, for 75% of the stocks examined, proportional spread is a significant and positive determinant of conditional heteroscedasticity after orthogonalization against share turnover and return. Alternative measures of illiquidity also have a strong positive effect on the variability of aggregate market return. In support of these findings, we present a simple market microstructural model in which conditional return variance is a positive and nonlinear function of stochastic Kyle's lambda.

liquidity, volume and conditional heteroscedasticity, GARCH models, stochastic Kyle's lambda

Abstract:
We investigate a general multiple security equilibrium model in which firms adjust their capital stock in response to economic shocks. Asset values are determined by competitive risk-averse investors. When corporate capital increases in value, firms react by creating more of it. This leads to additional risk that must be borne by investors. Overall, the model generates a VAR(1) structure for the state variables determining the cross-section of expected returns, and is broadly consistent with stylized facts (e.g., the value premium, size premium, earnings momentum, and investment premium). In addition, the paper tests a new prediction of the model and finds support for it in the data.

capital investment, profitability of capital, equity issuance, expected return, overlapping generations model, supply shocks

Abstract:
When a firm exercises discretion to disclose or withhold information (strategic disclosure), risk-averse investors command higher expected returns when expected cash flows decrease, producing a negative correlation between these expectations. Moreover, stock returns exhibit stronger reversal than they do when full disclosure is enforced. We propose a model that makes these predictions and provide consistent evidence using a panel of foreign firms that list American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). We find significant shifts in the time-series properties of stock returns for firms that undergo large changes in disclosure environments, such as those cross-listing on the NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ and those from less-developed/emerging markets and code-law countries.

G14, G15, F30