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Abstract:
This paper discusses what the next few decades could bring for the developing countries in terms of the size and composition of their trade and inward investment flows, as well as a possibly changing policy framework within the global economy in which they have to operate. Both the prospects and implications are clearly different from country to country, but given the breadth of the paper the focus is more on impacts on groups of countries rather than on specific countries.

The bottom line of the paper, is a cautious one. Three nagging questions are repeatedly re-emphasized. Can trade growth really be high enough on the import side in the OECD if now 100 or more developing countries see globalization and increased exports as their primary route to growth, industrialization, and development. Can barrier reductions in OECD markets and future WTO negotiations be relied on to fuel this, as in the past; and is there a more sinister scenario that new barrier increases could even choke off some of the trade growth? And what is to happen to development strategies if this course fails, as it seemingly has done so already for the low income countries? Having posed these questions, there are bright spots; the more rapid growth of South-South trade, even more rapid growth of least-developed to mid-developed country trade; higher growth rates of FDI than trade, and more and more developing country trade being investment driven. The papers? overriding message is perhaps that the world is not static, and country strategies toward the global economy need to reflect this.

Abstract:
Recent literature has explored both physical and policy linkage between trade and environment. Here we explore linkage through leverage in bargaining, whereby developed countries can use trade policy threats to achieve improved developing country environmental management, while developing countries can use environmental concessions to achieve trade disciplines in developed countries. We use a global numerical simulation model to compute bargaining outcomes from linked trade and environment negotiations, comparing developed-developing country bargaining only on trade policy with joint bargaining on both trade and domestic environmental policies. Results indicate joint gains from expanding the trade bargaining set to include environment, opposite to the current developing country reluctance to negotiate in the World Trade Organization on this issue. However, compared to bargaining with cash side payments, linking trade and environment through negotiation on policy instruments provides significantly inferior developing country outcomes. Thus, a trade and environment policy-linked negotiation may be better than an environment-only negotiation, but negotiating compensation to developing countries for environmental restraint would be better. We provide sensitivity and further analysis of our results and indicate what other factors could qualify our main finding, including the erosion of the MFN principle involved with environmentally based trade actions.

Abstract:
This paper discusses China's trade policy stance following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2002. Three broad issues are considered. The first is the extent to which WTO accession helps China in dealing with various key trade issues, including anti-dumping and the textiles and apparel trade. The second is China's participation in regional trade agreements post WTO accession. The third is the implementability of China's accession commitments in key service areas (banking, insurance, telecoms). The issues now for China are less the merits of WTO accession, and rather its trade policy decisions given WTO membership.

China, trade, WTO accession

Abstract:
This paper discusses a central element in globalization debate little addressed by economists, namely the interactions at global, national, and community levels between globalization and societally based values. Social values refer to wider notions of collective identity: religious values, attitudes towards materialism, moral beliefs, and a sense of collective awareness and are a broader and more encompassing concept than social capital discussed in recent economics and sociology literature. Social capital relates to trust, honesty and the social fabric of accepted norms central to the successful implementation of individual optimizing decisions, and denotes a communal asset reflecting strength of joint collective commitment whose amount can be increased or improved upon through investment of time and resources. Social values are much discussed in sociological literature going back to Comte, Durkheim, Parsons, and others. The issues taken up here are how different social values might interact and change as societies and their economies integrate (globalize). Processes of value competition, displacement, joint assimilation occur naturally to economists, but seem little studied by sociologists who seemingly place less stress on analytical comparative statics. Scenarios for how values can interact under globalization are discussed in the text.

Abstract:
This paper contrasts the modern use of the assumption that rationality guides individual economic behaviour, as reflected in simple models of utility and profit maximization, to literature between 1890 and 1930 which sharply challenged the use of such an assumption, as well as to later literature in economic psychology from Herbert Simon onwards which sees economic (and other) cognitive processes in different ways. Some of the earlier literature proposed objective and operational notions of rationality based on the availability of information, ability to reason (cognitive skills), and even morality. Learning played a major role in individuals achieving what was referred to as complete rationality. I draw on these ideas, and suggest that developing models in which economic agents have degrees (or levels) of economic cognition which are endogenously determined could both change the perceptions economists have on policy matters and incorporate findings from recent economic psychology literature. This would remove the issue of whether economic agents are dichotomously rational or irrational, and instead introduce continuous metrics of cognition into economic thinking. Such an approach also poses the two policy issues of whether raising levels of economic cognition should be an objective of policy and whether policy interventions motivated by departures from full economic cognition should be analyzed.

learning, complete rationality

Abstract:
This is a background paper prepared for an informal expert meeting of the Development Assistance Committee of the OECD. It discusses technical assistance on trade for the least developed and poorer countries and tries to explore alternative partnership approaches for building new trade capacity. It focuses on trade policy more than on trade promotion strategies. The paper identifies four different types of technical assistance: 1. Raising the awareness of key policy makers and actors both of how trade policy operates globally, and what the options are. 2. Help with the implementation of multilaterally or regionally agreed trade arrangements. 3. Help to deal with export related implements in foreign markets. 4. Enhancement of negotiating capability, both multilaterally and regionally. It emphasizes how a ranking across these types of assistance needs to be informed by a sense of the trade situation for these countries. The pattern of poorer country trade has been changing in recent years, with sharp export growth in countries such as Bangladesh, and also some African countries (such as Uganda). This is beginning to generate trade conflicts with OECD countries in areas such as textiles and apparel (MEA) and even antidumping. Poorer countries are also increasingly becoming involved in outsourcing trade (relocation of assembly operations to a poorer country by a large OECD company, possibly in an export processing zone); and trade between poorer countries and other developing countries is growing more rapidly. After many years of stagnant trade growth, poorer country trade is now growing at rates which compare to those of all developing countries. Special opportunities seem to be present in services trade (growing globally at rates higher than goods trade), and (in the future) electronic commerce.

Abstract:
In this article we discuss the global negotiations now underway and aimed at achieving new climate change mitigation and other arrangements after 2012 (the end of the Kyoto commitment period). These were initiated in Bali in December 2007 and are scheduled to conclude by the end of 2009 in Copenhagen. As such, this negotiation is effectively the second round in ongoing global negotiations on climate change and further rounds will almost certainly follow. We highlight both the vast scope and vagueness of the negotiating mandate, the many outstanding major issues to be accommodated between negotiating parties, the lack of a mechanism to force collective decision making in the negotiation, and their short time frame. The likely lack of compliance with prior Kyoto commitments by several OECD countries (some to a major degree), the effective absence in Kyoto of compliance/enforcement mechanisms, and growing linkage to non-climate change areas (principally trade) all further complicate the task of bringing the negotiation to conclusion. The major clearage we see that needs to be bridged in the negotiations is between OECD countries on the one hand, and lower wage, large population, rapidly growing countries (China, India, Russia, Brazil) on the other. (JEL codes: F33, F51, F53, Q54, Q56, P28)

climate change, international negotiation, international institutions, transition economies, OECD

Abstract:
In this paper we discuss the global negotiations now underway and aimed at achieving new climate change mitigation and other arrangements after 2012 (the end of the Kyoto commitment period). These were initiated in Bali in December 2007 and are scheduled to conclude by the end of 2009 in Copenhagen. As such, this negotiation is effectively the second round in ongoing global negotiations on climate change and further rounds will almost certainly follow. We highlight both the vast scope and vagueness of the negotiating mandate, the many outstanding major issues to be accommodated between negotiating parties, the lack of a mechanism to force collective decision making in the negotiation, and their short time frame. The likely lack of compliance with prior Kyoto commitments by several OECD countries (some to a major degree), the effective absence in Kyoto of compliance/enforcement mechanisms, and growing linkage to non-climate change areas (principally trade) all further complicate the task of bringing the negotiation to conclusion. The major clearage we see that needs to be bridged in the negotiations is between OECD countries on the one hand, and lower wage, large population, rapidly growing countries (China, India, Russia, Brazil) on the other.

climate change, global negotiation

Abstract:
We combine a model of combined inter-spatial and inter-temporal trade between countries - recently used by Huang, Whalley and Zhang (2004) to analyze the merits of trade liberalization in services when goods trade is restricted - with a model of foreign exchange rationing due to Clarete and Whalley (1991) in which there is a fixed exchange rate with a surrender requirement for foreign exchange generated by exports. In this model, when services remain unliberalized there is an optimal trade intervention, even in the small open price-taking economy case. Given monetary policy and an endogenously determined premium value on foreign exchange, an optimal setting of the exchange rate can provide the optimal trade intervention. We suggest this model has relevance to the current situation in China where services remain unliberalized and tariff rates are bound in the WTO. Since there is an optimal exchange rate, a move to a free Renminbi float can be welfare-worsening. We use numerical simulation methods to explore the properties of the model, since it has no closed-form solution. Our analysis provides an intellectual counter argument to those presently advocating a free Renminbi float for China.

Abstract:
It is widely believed in China that in order to meet the target of tripling gross domestic product (GDP) per capita between 2005 and 2020, as set out in China's 11th five-year plan in 2005, a change in China's growth strategy from FDI promotion and export-led growth towards technology upgrading and higher productivity growth in manufacturing needs to occur. This paper seeks to evaluate the potential effectiveness of recent government initiatives to be taken to achieve these ends. In particular, plans these include increased educational spending, tax incentives, large research and development (R&D) projects, and changes to the regulatory environment. In measuring China's economic growth potential towards 2020, this paper employs an economic analysis of Total Factor Productivity and identifies the importance of continued domestic technical innovation.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the potential role for environmental considerations in agricultural negotiations in the next WTO trade round, from developing country perspective. For now, as a non-trade issue in the new negotiations, environmental considerations are not the dominant concern, which is food security; although conflicts have arisen over the issue of multi functionality (agriculture serving multiple purposes including providing support for the rural environment), whether export subsidies have any rationale on environmental grounds, and the environmental case for the elimination of fishing subsidies. If new agricultural disciplines remain focused on the Uruguay Round issues of tightening the existing structure of bound tariffs, and limitations on domestic supports and export subsidies, then environmental concerns could enter in all of these. I suggest that for the developing countries, available studies seemingly point to substantial gains for them from internalization of externalities related to their own rural/agricultural activities and seemingly, further, environmental concerns should dominate trade concerns. However, the agriculture disciplines from the Uruguay Round seemingly provide relatively inefficient instruments to achieve substantive internalization of their externalities. Also, allowing environmental concerns to enter runs the risk of market restricting justifications (multi functionality) adversely affecting their export access to foreign markets. Finally, among the list of items on the trade and environmental agenda (Art 20 exceptions, MEAs, lax standards, eco-labeling) few or none can be addressed adequately as part of an environmental negotiation, and so environment in an agricultural negotiation is no substitute for a wider trade and environment negotiation. The bottom line is to suggest that developing countries focus heavily on environmental issues, perhaps even more so than trade, but that a WTO negotiation on agriculture is not the best forum to seek a remedy.

Abstract:
We consider progressive geographical expansion of free trade zones within countries as a form of trade liberalization and compare observationally equivalent liberalization involving changes in the coverage of a free trade zone for a fixed tariff rate, and tariff reductions applying to all trade if there are no free trade zones in the country (in the sense of generating similar changes in trade volumes). Our work is motivated by China's approach to service trade liberalization in banking and other areas of progressive additions of cities to automatic licence treatment for foreign entities. We use numerical simulation methods to compare conventional national tariff reductions to trade liberalization achieved through the geographical expansion of free trade zones in terms of welfare impacts. Either the size of the free trade zone with a fixed tariff, or the tariff rate given the size of the free trade zone can be endogenously determined so as to yield observational equivalence in the sense of trade volume impacts across trade policy changes. Numerical results overwhelmingly indicate larger welfare costs from imposing geographically restrictive schemes since a higher tariff applies to a smaller fraction of trade, and distortions within country trade also apply. Numerical policy analyses using a conventional tariff-equivalent ad valorem modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of liberalizing geographical barriers can thus be highly misleading. We explore both pure exchange and with production cases, and relate our discussion to earlier literature on free trade zones.

Abstract:
We explore the implications of trade liberalization in economies with State Owned enterprises (SOEs) and shirking. SOEs are modelled as controlled by the members of the enterprise who determine output and effort levels, while facing output prices and wage rates set by government. Enterprise members must collectively meet a budget constraint that the value of sales equals the enterprise wage bill plus an exogenous enterprise commitment to the state budget. Labour can shirk either through low on the job effort (leisure), or through moonlighting to second jobs in the private sector. Three alternative formulations of equilibria in SOE economies are explored, and in these trade liberalization can produce effects opposite from conventional competitive models. In particular, the output of competing SOEs increases rather than falls, and negative effects on imports can also occur. These models when calibrated to 1995 data for Vietnam also suggest quantitatively much larger impacts from trade liberalization than is the case for comparable conventional competitive models. This is because departures from Pareto optimality in SOE economies can be large and trade liberalization acts to discipline shirking associated with these inefficiencies. The implication we draw from our analysis is that to evaluate policy initiatives, such as trade liberalization, in developing and transistion economies without explicitly recognizing the role that SOEs can play may be misleading. This is especially the case where SOEs account for a significant fraction of economic activity and shirking is involved.

Shirking, state owned enterprises, trade liberalization

Abstract:
This paper discusses special and differential treatment (SDT) for developing countries in a new WTO trade round. It argues that SDT introduced in the Uruguay Round represented a sharp departure from pre Uruguay Round SDT which had focussed on special rights to protect and preferential market access, and was characterised by a wide range of delays, exemptions, best efforts endeavours from developed countries, technical assistance and other provisions. These new provisions were arrived at late on in negotiation, and were ad hoc in design. They nonetheless represented a new form of SDT relating to special rights needed on adjustment and policy capacity grounds as developing countries integrated into the WTO system. Despite general skepticism as to the value of SDT benefits, the challenge is to more carefully rationalise and target these provisions, and to elaborate on them.

Abstract:
Recent years have seen a sharp growth in the number of regional agreements both concluded and under negotiation. This paper attempts to document and discuss this growth focusing on US, EU, Chinese, Indian and other agreements. The form, coverage and content of these agreements vary considerably from case to case. The paper asks why so many, why the variation in form, and why the recent acceleration. Implications for the trading system are discussed in a final section.

Abstract:
Recent years have seen a sharp growth in the number of regional agreements both concluded and under negotiation. This paper attempts to document and discuss this growth focusing on US, EU, Chinese, Indian and other agreements. The form, coverage, and content of these agreements varies considerably from case to case. The paper asks why so many, why the variation in form, and why the recent acceleration. Implications for the trading system are discussed in a final section.

Abstract:
Recent years have witnessed a sharp increase in the number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) both concluded and under negotiation. This paper attempts to document and discuss this growth focusing on the United States (US), the European Union (EU), China, India, and the agreements of other countries. The form, coverage, and content of these agreements vary considerably from case to case. This paper poses the following questions: why so many, why the variation, and why the recent increase in RTAs? Implications for the trading system are discussed in the final section.

United States, European Union, NAFTA, Regional Trade Agreements

Abstract:
We discuss recent regional trade and economic partnership agreements involving the large population, rapidly growing economies (BRICSAM: Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa, ASEAN, and Mexico). Perhaps 50 out of 300 agreements that exist worldwide involve BRICSAM countries; most are recently concluded and will be implemented over the next few years. Along with extensive bilateral investment treaties, mutual recognition agreements, and other country to country (or region) arrangements they are part of what we term the non-WTO. This paper aims to document and characterize the agreements and analyze their possible impacts. Agreements differ in specificity, coverage and content. In some treaties there are detailed and specific commitments, but these also co-exist with seemingly vague commitments and (at times) opaque dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms. Whether these represent a partial replacement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) process for newly negotiated reciprocity based on global trade liberalization or largely represent diplomatic protocol alongside significant WTO disciplines is the subject of this paper.

WTO, BRICSAM, non WTO, trade agreements, China, India

Abstract:
This paper emphasizes the range of factors which enter country calculations to seek regional trading arrangements. These include conventional access benefits, but extend to safe haven concerns, the use of trade arrangements to underpin security arrangements, and tactical interplay between multilateral and regional trade negotiating positions. In a final section, results from an earlier modelling effort by Perroni and Whalley are used to emphasize that non- traditional objectives may be quantitatively more important than traditionally analyzed objectives.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the recent regional trade agreements that China has concluded rapidly following accession to the WTO in 2002. Agreements are in place with Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand, and are either in negotiation or under discussion with South Africa, Chile, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council. These agreements differ sharply in form and substance, and involve process commitments to ongoing negotiation and cooperation on a wide range of issues. Differences relating to the regional agreements negotiated by the EU and the US are emphasised, as are later potential difficulties these agreements create in moving to an Asian trade bloc centred on them.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the recent regional trade agreements that China has concluded rapidly following accession to the WTO in 2002. Agreements are in place with Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN, Australia, and New Zealand, and are either in negotiation or under discussion with South Africa, Chile, India, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. These agreements differ sharply in form and substance, and involve process commitments to ongoing negotiation and cooperation on a wide range of issues. Differences relating to the regional agreements negotiated by the EU and the US are emphasized, as are later potential difficulties these agreements create in moving to an Asian trade bloc centred on them.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the recent regional trade agreements that China has concluded rapidly following accession to the WTO in 2002. Agreements are in place with Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN, Australia, and New Zealand, and are either in negotiation or under discussion with South Africa, Chile, India, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. These agreements differ sharply in form and substance, and involve process commitments to ongoing negotiation and cooperation on a wide range of issues. Differences relating to the regional agreements negotiated by the EU and the US are emphasized, as are later potential difficulties these agreements create in moving to an Asian trade bloc centred on them.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the recent regional trade agreements that China has concluded rapidly following accession to the WTO in 2002. Agreements are in place with Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN, Australia, and New Zealand, and are either in negotiation or under discussion with South Africa, Chile, India, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. These agreements differ sharply in form and substance, and involve process commitments to ongoing negotiation and cooperation on a wide range of issues. Differences relating to the regional agreements negotiated by the EU and the US are emphasized, as are later potential difficulties these agreements create in moving to an Asian trade bloc centred on them.

Abstract:
The post-Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) trade regime in textile and apparel appears to be emerging in ways which are quite different from what had been widely anticipated before the termination of Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). Since the end of ATC, there has been growing and spreading set of trade restrictions targeted primarily at China, the largest shipper of textile and apparel, through a series of agreements that we term China Containment Agreements. We discuss the evolution of these agreements, their behavioural responses, and then draw their parallels to those under the older MFA. We argue that there is potential for these restrictions to prolong and grow, as well as spread to other products through the product-specific safeguards mechanism included in the conditions of China's World Trade Organization accession.

Multi Fiber Agreement, textile trade, China, Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, World Trade Organization

Abstract:
Currently proposals are actively circulating in China to move to a unified enterprise tax structure with similar tax treatment of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), other private enterprises (OPEs) and foreign investment enterprises (FIEs). FIEs presently receive significant tax preferences through a sharply lower tax rate, tax holidays and other provisions. Here we use analytical representations of SOE behaviour, which differ from that of the competitive firm, to argue that a unified tax structure may not be a desirable tax change and that typically a higher tax rate on SOEs is called for on efficiency grounds. Using a worker control model with endogenously determined shirking, taxes on SOEs reduce shirking and a reduced SOE tax rate under a unified tax relaxes discipline on SOEs and losses result. Our results indicate a 0.26% of GDP welfare loss using 2004 data from a unified tax, and larger loss relative to an optimal tax scheme. Alternatively, if we use a managerial control model variant, we find a 0.19% welfare loss from a unified tax, and larger losses relative to initial higher SOE tax rates.

Abstract:
Currently proposals are actively circulating in China to move to a unified enterprise tax structure with similar tax treatment of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), other private enterprises (OPE) and foreign investment enterprises (FIEs). FIEs presently receive significant tax preferences through a sharply lower tax rate, tax holidays and other provisions. Here we use analytical representations of SOE behavior, which differ from that of the competitive firm, to argue that a unified tax structure may not be a desirable tax change and that typically a higher tax rate on SOEs is called for on efficiency grounds. Using a worker control model with endogenously determined shirking, taxes on SOEs reduce shirking and a reduced SOE tax rate under a unified tax relaxes discipline on SOEs and losses result. Our results indicate a 0.26% of GDP welfare loss using 2004 data from a unified tax, and larger loss relative to an optimal tax scheme. Alternatively, if we use a managerial control model variant, we find a 0.19% welfare loss from a unified tax, and larger losses relative to initial higher SOE tax rates.

Abstract:
We discuss metrics of globalization for individual economies as distance measures between fully integrated and trade restricted equilibria in economies initially operating under less than full integration with the global economy. Such metrics can be used to construct country globalization metrics reflecting the distance of economies from full global integration due to trade barriers, barriers to factor flows, barriers to international financial intermediation, solved technological diffusion and other economy specific features yielding less than full integration into the global economy. Many distance metrics present themselves and none are wholly satisfactory since they each behave differently across various displacements from integration. Distance measures can, for instance, be small in goods space but large in price space. We present alternative measures constructed for eight OECD economies and comment in a concluding section on other measures used elsewhere in the literature such as trade/GDP ratios.

Abstract:
This paper presents assesses of the contribution of inward FDI to China’s recent rapid economic growth using a two stage growth accounting approach. Recent econometric literature focuses on testing whether Chinese growth depends on inward FDI rather than measuring the contribution. Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIEs), often (but not exclusively) are joint ventures between foreign companies and Chinese enterprises, and can be thought of as forming a distinctive subpart of the Chinese economy. These enterprises account for over 50% of China’s exports and 60% of China’s imports. Their share in Chinese GDP has been over 20% in the last two years, but they employ only 3% of the workforce, since their average labor productivity exceeds that of Non-FIEs by around 9:1. Their production is more heavily for export rather than the domestic market because FIEs provide access to both distribution systems abroad and product design for export markets. Our decomposition results indicate that China’s FIEs may have contributed over 40% of China’s economic growth in 2003 and 2004, and without this inward FDI, China’s overall GDP growth rate could have been around 3.4 percentage points lower. We suggest that the sustainability of both China’ export and overall economic growth may be questionable if inward FDI plateaus in the future.

Abstract:
China's growth strategy as set out in the 11th 5-year plan in 2005 called for upgrading of product quality, the development of an innovation society, and reduced reliance on foreign intellectual property with high license fees. Consistent with this policy, China has been involved in recent years with the development of a Chinese standard in third generation (3G) mobile phone technology, both in negotiating the standard and seeing it through to commercialization. This is the first case of a developing country both originating and successfully negotiating a telecommunications standard and this experience raises issues for China's future development strategy based on product and process upgrading in manufacturing. We argue that while precedent setting from an international negotiating point of view, the experience has thus far is unproven commercially. But the lessons learned will benefit future related efforts in follow-on technologies if similar Chinese efforts are made.

This paper documents Chinese standard-setting efforts from proposal submission to ITU to the current large-scale trial network deployment in China and overseas trial networks deployment. We discuss the underlying objectives for this initiative, evaluate its effectiveness, and assess its broader implications for Chinese development policy.

Abstract:
This paper explores the use of structural models as an alternative to reduced form methods when decomposing observed joint trade and technology driven wage changes into components attributable to each source. Conventional mobile factors Heckscher-Ohlin models typically reveal problems of specialisation unless price changes accompanying trade shocks are small, and can also produce wide ranges for the decomposition for parameterisations consistent with the joint change. A differentiated goods model which generalises Heckscher-Ohlin removes problems of specialisation and concentrates the range of decompositions more narrowly, but introduces larger demand side responses to trade shocks which greatly reduce the effect of trade. The conclusion offered is that the choice of structural model matters for decomposing observed wage changes into trade and technology components, and that reduced-form methods which do not discriminate between alternative structural models may not be that informative for such decompositions.

Abstract:
We analyze the Hukou system of permanent registration in China which many believe has supported growing relative inequality over the last 20 years by restraining labour migration both between the countryside and urban areas and between regions and cities. Our aim is to inject economic modelling into the debate on sources of inequality in China which thus far has been largely statistical. We first use a model with homogeneous labour in which wage inequality across various geographical divides in China is supported solely by quantity based migration restrictions (urban - rural areas, rich - poor regions, eastern coastal - central and western (noncoastal) zones, eastern and central - western development zones, eastern - central - western zones, more disaggregated 6 regional classifications, and an all 31 provincial classification). We calibrate this model to base case data and when we remove migration restrictions all wage and most income inequality disappears. Results from this model structure point to a significant role for Hukou restrictions in supporting inequality in China, and show how economic rather than statistical modelling can be used to decompose inequality change. We then modify the model to capture labour efficiency differences across regions, calibrating the modified model to estimates of both national and regional Gini coefficients. Removal of migration barriers is again inequality improving but now less so. Finally, we present a further model extension in which urban house price rises retard rural - urban migration. The impacts of removing of migration restrictions on inequality are smaller, but are still significant.

Abstract:
This paper considers liberalization of trade in both inter-temporal intermediation services and goods in a joint spatial-intertemporal trade model. Joint multi-commodity spatial intertemporal models are not (to our knowledge) used in the trade literature as general comparative statics results are unavailable and (in the presence of incomplete markets) existence can also be an issue. Here we use numerical simulation methods. We first consider a world with service trade autarky in which there is no domestic intermediation service provision, and service trade liberalization involves costless inter-temporal intermediation provided by foreign service providers. This simple treatment allows us to model service trade liberalization as removing period by period budget constraints for domestic consumers. In such a world, if nonzero tariffs apply to spatial trade we present an example showing how service trade liberalization can be welfare-worsening. One implication is that negotiations on services in the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) need not be welfare-improving if there are also ongoing tariff negotiations. We then expand the model to capture a more complex world where costly intermediation services can be provided by both within-country and foreign providers. We again illustrate how services liberalization can be welfare-worsening. We finally discuss whether welfare worsening service trade liberalization is likely in a real-world situation of highly restricted services trade and considerably more open goods trade, and when services trade is around 1/3 of total goods and services trade as is often claimed from available global service trade data.

Abstract:
This paper emphasizes the different nature of cross border liberalization in network related services, such as telecoms, compared to liberalization in goods. In the presence of network externalities, it argues that if two disjoint country service networks involving a small and large country are connected as part of international liberalization, the per capita gain for the small country from access to a large network will be large, and the per capita gain for the large country will be small. Benefits of liberalization in network related serv ices, unlike goods, are more likely to be approximately equally divided between large and small countries than is true of trade in goods, where benefits accrue disproportionately to the small country. We also argue that non-cooperation in network related services trade may involve more extreme retaliation than suggested for trade in goods from the optimal tariff literature, so that relative to a non-cooperative outcome, gains from liberalization in network related services become larger than from liberalization in goods. An empirical implementation of global telecoms liberalization for the US, Europe, Canada, and the Rest of the World using the framework developed in the paper shows larger gains to larger regions, consistent with the theme of the paper that goods and services liberalization differ.

Abstract:
East Asia is witnessing the emergence of an informal monetary system which focuses on self-insurance through own reserve accumulation and co-insurance through swaps. The former is concentrated in a small number of large countries (China, Japan, and Korea), while the latter involves informal monetary cooperation among monetary authorities in a large number of countries. The origins of this system lie in the Asian financial crises, and reflect concerns both to avoid repetition of similar events and any spread of further crises through contagion effects. This paper first characterizes and documents this emerging system describing how it works and what its objectives are, and then discusses its performance, its incompleteness, and assesses the system's ability to move towards deeper integration without adopting a single monetary authority as well as the impediments it faces. What is clear is that this type of system among individual countries is incomplete and falls well short of complete monetary integration, but at present it performs well even if it experiences a number of deficiencies. Most countries seem better off with partial reserve pooling, while incremental gains from higher degrees of pooling in the region tend to be small.

ASEAN, APT, East Asia, monetary policy, financial crises, currency, reserve pooling, self-insurance, co-insurance, reserve swaps

Abstract:
This paper discusses the broad orientation of Canada's trade policy relative to two major historical phases of development based on a secure national market behind the National Policy from 1879 until the 1930s, and progressive integration with the United States (US) through Bilateral Agreements (1930s), the Auto Pact (1965), the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (1987) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (1994). Currently, Canada exports approximately 85% to the US, but imports from China account for 8% and are growing at over 20% a year. Sharply unbalanced (surplus) trade with the US is counterbalanced by unbalanced deficit trade with China. A scenario of elevated growth in Asia (principally China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) poses challenges of relative disintegration centered on Asia. Seemingly a series of implications follow; including positioning Canada within the emerging network for regional agreements in Asia, more resource-based and Western Canada focused trade and infrastructure development, and responding to capital market integration with Asia. Broader issues include the potential adjustments facing Central Canada as Asian imports of manufactures displace both imported manufactures from the US and domestic production are raised.

Canada, Trade, China, India, ASEAN

Abstract:
We discuss China's stance in the WTO post-accession, noting the many issues with implementation of China's accession terms by 2007. We evaluate how much benefit China can realistically receive from WTO membership given current problems with dumping actions against China and trade restrictions against textile and apparel exports. We discuss emerging WTO and non-WTO trade disputes involving China, and China's now extensive regional trade initiatives which raise issues of multilateral regional balance on China's trade policy strategy.

Abstract:
We discuss global options for initiatives intended to ameliorate adverse impacts of visa and work permit systems used by national governments around the world. We first describe and document some of their effects, noting the relative lack of other research work on these issues. We then discuss proposals for a new and supplemental global visa structure which have been made as part of the Mode 4 GATS negotiations in the WTO, suggesting that the GATS/WTO may be an imperfect institutional location for negotiating on these matters. We then evaluate other approaches, including what realistically could be possible if a new body specifically created for global negotiation in the area were to be used.

Abstract:
Countries can reduce global emissions by reducing own consumption since they are linked to the total value of consumption world wide. Two effects are at issue: a utility loss from forgone consumption and a utility gain from lowered temperature change. It is thus unclear whether own country emissions reductions are in the self interest; typically they are not for small countries, but may be for larger countries. Here are investigate the incentives for individual large population low wage rapidly growing countries in the BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and the groups of countries as a sub-global coalition. We also assess what level of other countries’ trade measures linked to non participation is needed to induce compliance as an all or nothing discrete choice. We capture induced changes in the global trade equilibrium in our analysis, as well as participation linked to financial transfers. Our results suggest that only very high tariffs over a hundred percent by all other countries, or even higher tariffs by the OECD alone, could induce participation by BRIC countries, especially when the country is a net exporter. Equally, large financial transfers would be needed.

trade sanctions, financial transfers, global emissions, climate change

Abstract:
We discuss recent cases of Chinese buyout activity in the OECD (especially in the US and the EU) in resource and manufacturing sectors. While most of the buyout attempts have been unsuccessful, they can serve as a catalyst for a wider discussion on the implications for global arrangements over cross border acquisitions. Three specific issues are discussed. The first is the subsidization of purchase raised in the OECD in response to the advancing of low- or no-interest loans by the Chinese Central Bank to companies investing abroad. The second is the transparency of entities involved in the buyout attempt. Most Chinese companies have close ties to the multiple levels of government and are not subject to the standard reporting requirements as required of OECD companies. The third involves national security concerns in the OECD and the possibility of acquiring sensitive technology by Chinese companies when they purchase companies abroad. These issues have not been addressed in the existing OECD/WTO investment policy initiatives and have yet to be discussed in the global fora.

Abstract:
Trade between the whole of Africa and China (imports and exports summed) grew from $10.6 billion to $73.3 billion between 2000 and 2007, and between Sub-Saharan Africa and China from $7 billion to $59 billion over the same period. China is now Africa's third largest trading partner behind the EU and the US. The Chinese FDI stock in Africa has grown from $49 million in 1990 to $2.6 billion in 2006. On the basis of these data, one frequently hears the claim that China is now a dominant influence in Africa. Here we both evaluate such claims, and assess what factors underlay this phenomenon. We suggest that while the annual growth rates of trade and investment flows are high (around 30% per year sine the late 1990's), the levels are still considerably smaller than such claims might suggest. China in 2006 accounted for only $520 million of inward FDI compared to a total from all sources of $36 billion, around 1.4% of total FDI inflows to Africa; and only 8.6% of African exports and 9.6% of African imports. African interdependence with China thus remains proportionally smaller than that for most other geographical areas, but is growing rapidly. Factors behind this growth are discussed in the text.

Abstract:
This paper documents and assesses the significance of the policy changes in China that WTO accession implies in 3 key service categories (banking, insurance, and telecoms), asking whether it is likely they will really be fully implemented in their entirety as undertaken at signature in 2002. While it would seem that China will have extraordinarily open markets for these services by 2007 (and for banking, perhaps in the world), the starting point for implementing these policy changes seems so highly restricted that doubts have been raised about the feasibility of implementing such changes over such a short time even if threats of eventual retaliation from WTO partners speeds things along. WTO members are monitoring the implementation of China's WTO commitments, and following dispute settlement might retaliate in the future were these agreed changes not to be implemented. I discuss what scenarios this liberalization might follow, and ask whether these commitments can really be implemented as undertaken.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to revalue, there is a need to examine commercial policy in more than a pure barter model. Here we evaluate the joint impacts of exchange rate appreciation on trade flows and country surpluses using a general equilibrium trade model with a simple monetary structure in which the trade surplus is endogenously determined in the exchange rate setting country and the exchange rate is exogenous. We illustrate its application to the Chinese case using calibration to 2005 data. Our results, while elasticity dependent, suggest that the impacts of Renminbi (RMB) revaluation on the surplus are proportionally larger than on trade flows, and that changes in trade flows can be substantial. Different treatments of China's processing trade have small impact on changes in China's trade flow under RMB appreciation, but significant impacts on the change in the surplus. Results are elasticity dependent; larger substitution elasticities in preferences yield larger effects on trade flows and the surplus.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalization on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production, and welfare.

Abstract:
This paper documents the major transformation of higher education that has been underway in China since 1999 and evaluates its potential global impacts. Reflecting China's commitment to continued high growth through quality upgrading and the production of ideas and intellectual property as set out in both the 10th (2001-2005) and 11th (2006-2010) five-year plans, this transformation focuses on major new resource commitments to tertiary education and also embodies significant changes in organizational form. This focus on tertiary education differentiates the Chinese case from other countries who earlier at similar stages of development instead stressed primary and secondary education. The number of undergraduate and graduate students in China has been grown at approximately 30% per year since 1999, and the number of graduates at all levels of higher education in China has approximately quadrupled in the last 6 years. The size of entering classes of new students and total student enrollments have risen even faster, and have approximately quintupled. Prior to 1999 increases in these areas were much smaller. Much of the increased spending is focused on elite universities, and new academic contracts differ sharply from earlier ones with no tenure and annual publication quotas often used. All of these changes have already had large impacts on China's higher educational system and are beginning to be felt by the wider global educational structure. We suggest that even more major impacts will follow in the years to come and there are implications for global trade both directly in ideas, and in idea derived products. These changes, for now, seem relatively poorly documented in literature.

Abstract:
In theoretical literature it is common to make the assumption that in a multi-country, multi-good world, the direction of trade (import and export by commodity) is predetermined and fixed for each good for each country. We consider a simple three-country, three-good, pure-exchange model with CES preferences. We compute free trade competitive equilibria, three-country non-cooperative Nash equilibria, and customs union equilibria for randomised parameterizations, and find that trade pattern changes between free trade and customs union equilibria in around 35% of cases.

Abstract:
Numerical simulation exercises to analyze the impacts of potential changes in non-tariff policies commonly use ad valorem equivalent tariff treatment even though estimated impacts using explicit model representation and ad valorem equivalent treatments will differ. The difficulty for modellers is that the detail and subtlety embodied in a wide array of policy interventions means that some simplification is appealing, but no meaningful general propositions exist in the theoretical literature as to the sign or size of the differences in predicted effects. All that can seemingly be done is to investigate the differences case by case, but even here the findings are sensitive both to the particular form of model used as well as the model parameterization employed. As a result, there is relatively little in the literature that provides guidance as to how serious the pitfalls may be, and how misleading ad valorem tariff equivalent treatment is. Here I draw on three examples of numerical modelling where explicit representation of policy interventions are used. The picture that emerges is one of large quantitative and even qualitative differences in predicted impacts. These examples suggest that where interventions differ from a tariff, ad valorem representation should be undertaken in numerical trade modelling only with substantial caveats.

Abstract:
We explore how outcomes of trade policy retaliation (Nash tariff games) are affected when trade simultaneously takes places geographically across countries and through time via financial intermediation. In such models deficits and surpluses in goods trade are endogenously determined, and retaliatory trade policy towards goods can affect these and monetary trade models show different retaliatory trade outcomes from conventional goods only models. We use a general equilibrium goods trade model which also captures trade through time in the form of inside money as used in macro literature on one good overlapping generations models. In this model the deficit or surplus of any country in goods trade is endogenous determined. Optimal trade policy differs from that in a conventional goods only trade model in that countries which run trade deficits in goods will have more strategic power through tariff policy (and surplus countries less) than in models with balanced trade. We calibrate such a model to China's trade with the rest of the world and explore two country tariff games using 2005 data. Results show the significant impacts on Nash outcomes of endogenizing the Chinese trade surplus in the model in this way.

inside money, general equilibrium, Nash equilibrium, numerical analysis, tariff rate

Abstract:
This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for next several decades will be growth more so than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition given differences in emission intensity between tradables and nontradables. We also note that differences in emissions intensity across countries are larger than across products or sectors and so issues of country discrimination in trade policy (and violations of MFN) arises.

We next discuss both unilateral and regional carbon motivated trade policy arrangements, including three potential variants of carbon emission reduction based free trade area arrangements. One is regional trade agreements with varying types of trade preferences towards low carbon intensive products, low carbon new technologies and inputs to low carbon processes. A second is the use of joint border measures against third parties to counteract anti-competitive effects from groups of countries taking on deeper emission reduction commitments. A third is third country trade barriers along with free trade or other regional trade agreements as penalty mechanisms to pressure other countries to join emission reducing environmental agreements. We differentiate among the objectives, forms and possible impacts of each variant. We also speculate as to how the world trading system may evolve in the next few decades as trade policy potentially becomes increasingly dominated by environmental concerns. We suggest that the future evolution of the trading system will likely be with environmentally motivated arrangements acting as an overlay on prevailing trade and financial arrangements in the WTO and IMF, and eventually movement to linked global trade and environmental policy bargaining.

Abstract:
Using a general-equilibrium model of world trade, this paper evaluates the benefits of most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment to developing countries in multilateral relative to bilateral or regional trade agreements, from three sources. First, developing countries may be able to free-ride on bilateral tariff concessions exchanged between larger countries in MFN-based GATT/WTO rounds. Second, MFN benefits developing countries by restricting discriminatory retaliatory actions by other countries, evaluated here by a non-cooperative Nash tariff game. Finally, MFN changes threat points in bargaining and hence affects the bargaining solution of multilateral MFN-based trade negotiation compared to a bilateral/regional arrangement. The authors find that the benefits to developing countries are small in the first case as the tariff rates are already low, and the benefits are small in the second case as the optimal tariffs under unconstrained retaliation are not very asymmetric. Benefits from the third case are large as large countries can extract large side-payments if they bargain bilaterally.

Abstract:
We discuss recent bilateral, regional, and country trade, partnership, and economic agreements involving both ASEAN as a single entity and individual ASEAN countries (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia) focusing on their reach beyond conventional trade in goods and services issues. What emerges is of a picture of ill-defined general commitments and precise undertaking, which vary from element to element and country pair to country pair. These agreements are recent, but they are numerous and more are under negotiation. We separately synthesize and evaluate provisions in five areas: competition policy, investment, mutual recognition, movement of persons, and broader cooperation.

Abstract:
We evaluate the possibilities for a new World Environmental Organisation (WEO), with our discussion motivated both by recent calls for such an organisation in light of WTO trade and environment conflicts and the relative absence of internalisation of global externalities. We propose an organisation building upon the idea of facilitating Coasian deal on the global environment. We motivate the establishment of such an organisation by itemising the ways in which global environmental deals are presently restrained by various impediments, including free riding, property right ambiguities, and mechanisms for authentification and verification. We indicate how such a WEO might help in each of these areas, stressing the differences from the WTO which is a much narrower bargaining framework.

Abstract:
This paper presents ex post decomposition analysis of wage inequality change using multi-sector general equilibrium models. The analytical structure used is a specific-factors model of trade, which we calibrate to UK data for the two years 1979 and 1975. We first calibrate our general equilibrium trade model to observations on wage inequality, trade, production and consumption spanning these years, capturing the separate influences of trade, technology and demographics on inequality. Between these years wage inequality changed, but multiple changes in exogenous variables occurred (world prices, technology, endowments). We use calibration techniques to determine parameter values consistent with both the equilibria and the changes in exogenous variables contributing to the wage inequality change being decomposed. We then compute counterfactual equilibria in which only some of the changes in exogenous variables are present to allow us to assess what portion of the observed change is attributable to the various contributing factors. Our findings are that the roles of trade and factor-biased technological change are relatively larger than in earlier literature. We also find that changes in factor endowments to offset increased inequality generated by trade and skilled-biased technological changes, a feature that seems to have gone relatively unnoticed in earlier literature.

Abstract:
I discuss the tax treatment of transborder capital income, focussing on prevailing arrangements rather than de novo design of optimal tax arrangements. These comprise unilateral reliefs from double taxation under credit or exemption systems, and treaty reliefs (largely following the OECD model treaty) which jointly lower withholding tax rates on interest, dividends, and royalties in both host and source countries. I suggest that these arrangements involve both seemingly non-strategic unilateral actions and cooperative arrangements which are difficult to reconcile both with tax competition literature and with national interest. I pose four puzzles in this regard. The first is that from a national welfare point of view, the unilateral reliefs in use seem inferior to no relief since with competitive markets investors equate the private return on investments at home and abroad, while tax revenues largely accrue to the foreign government. Private returns are equated, but national returns are not. The second is that tax treaties only have lump sum effects between national governments if the more common credit arrangements of unilateral reliefs apply and if tax rates are similar in host and source countries (approximately the OECD situation). This raises the issue of why governments negotiate them. The third is the sharp contrast to international treaty arrangements for goods flows under the WTO; and the fourth is the absence of side payments in tax treaties. The picture emerging is that making sense of present arrangements from a national welfare point of view and in terms of efficient instrument design seems difficult. The gap relative to optimal tax considerations also seems large.

Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact thus far that the termination of trade restrictions under the Multi Fibre Arrangement (MFA) which up to the end of 2004 applied to exports of clothing and textiles in key OECD markets has had on Asian suppliers. The speculation prior to MFA termination had been that large increases of Chinese exports would ensue, and at the expense of other Asian suppliers. Using data from US, EU Chinese and other sources, the picture that emerges is only small impacts on aggregate US and EU imports of clothing and textiles, and equally only small impacts on aggregate Chinese exports of clothing and textiles. There are, however, large changes in the country pattern of trade, and also within more narrowly defined product categories. There are large increases in shipments from China to both the US and the EU, and for the US proportionally more so in textiles than in clothing. But the US accounts for only 20% of China`s exports of clothing and textiles, and exports to Japan (comparable in size to the US) hardly change, and to Hong Kong fall sharply. There are also large price falls for shipments to the US and to certain EU countries (Germany). The shares of other Asian suppliers in US markets generally hold up well, with the largest falls occurring in preferentially treated non Asian suppliers such as Mexico. In EU markets, with the exception of India, all non Chinese Asian suppliers experience falls in their market share.

Abstract:
We discuss how social considerations can affect the desirability of trade liberalization in a conventional small open economy model. We consider a representative family in which there are location specific network effects from interactions with other family members, such as joint consumption, joint emotional support, and coinsurance. The benefits an individual receives from the network they participate in are nonlinearly related to the number of family members located in urban and rural areas. Family members choose whether to locate in urban or rural areas and average and marginal network benefits differ. With differential network effects in urban and rural areas, in a model with traded urban and rural goods, free trade will no longer be the best policy. We show this through a numerical example, and suggest that the conventional economists case for free trade may need to be more nuanced once social considerations of this type are taken into account.

Abstract:
We compare the welfare costs of tax distortions of labor supply in one- and two-member household discrete and continuous choice labor supply (leisure consumption) models calibrated to the same aggregate uncompensated labor supply elasticities. In the discrete models, taxes induce a large response from a subset of the population, whereas the majority of the population exhibits unchanged behavior. In contrast, the majority of the population reacts to tax changes in continuous models. Discrete choice matters as the welfare costs of similar taxes vary significantly when individuals face discrete labor supply choices from when they choose working hours continuously.

Abstract:
We discuss the role played by discrete labor supply (leisure consumption) choice in" affecting measures of the welfare cost of labor supply tax distortions. We construct comparable" continuous and discrete choice models, each calibrated to have similar aggregate" (uncompensated) labor supply elasticities. In the former, there is a single representative" consumer; in the latter there is a distribution of individuals across preference parameters. In the" discrete model, taxes induce a large response from a subset of the population of the population shows unchanged behavior. Welfare costs of similar taxes in continuous" models can substantially exceed those in discrete models or vice versa formulation used. Experiments are also reported for a two labor type household model with one" continuous variable (secondary labor) and one discrete variable (primary labor) are also made using an empirically based model specification calibrated to UK data. Model" results clearly show that discrete choice matters in the assessment of the cost of labor supply tax" distortions.

Abstract:
This paper highlights the potential for joint OECD (or non-OPEC) carbon taxes to reduce OPEC’s monopoly rent and provide benefit to non-OPEC countries provided jointly agreed trigger strategies are adhered to. In traditional economic theory, the primary purpose of a carbon tax is to internalize a global negative externality. A second benefit for individual countries is that the revenue raised by carbon tax can be used to reduce other tax rates and so lower the deadweight loss of tax system. In this paper, we discuss a third benefit of carbon taxes: transferring rents from OPEC to the oil importing countries.

We develop a multi-region general equilibrium structure with endogenously determined oil supply for the purpose in which emissions are endogenously determined. We calibrate our model to 2006 data. Our analytics and numerical simulation results highlight how a uniform carbon tax used by all non-OPEC countries will increase the buyer’s price of oil but decrease the supplier’s price of oil, thus decreasing non-OPEC countries’ oil demand, and transferring OPEC monopoly rent to non-OPEC countries. Carbon taxes reduce the welfare of OPEC and increase the welfare of non-OPEC countries. Results also show how carbon taxes reduce global emissions, but the effect is small.

carbon taxes, OECD, monopoly rent

Abstract:
In the paper we discuss China's participation in both the 2009 Copenhagen negotiations on a post-Kyoto global climate change regime currently under way and out beyond Copenhagen in further negotiations likely to follow. China is now both the largest and most rapidly growing carbon emitter, and has much higher emission intensity relative to GDP than OECD countries. In the Copenhagen negotiation, there will be strong pressure on China to take on emissions reduction commitments and China's concern will be to do so in ways that allow continuation of a high growth rate and fast development. Central to this will be maintaining access to OECD markets for manufactured exports in face of potential environmental protectionism. Thus the broad approach seems likely to be to take on environmental commitments in part in return for stronger guarantees of access to export markets abroad. This involves directly linked trade and environmental commitments although how linkage can be made explicit is a major issue. More narrowly, the issues that seem likely to dominate the climate change negotiating agenda from China's viewpoint are the interpretation of the common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) principle adopted in Kyoto, the choice of negotiating instruments and form of emission commitments, and the size (and form) of accompanying financial funds for adaptation and innovation. We suggest that a possible interpretation of CBDR reflecting China's desire to leave room to grow when undertaking emission reduction commitments might be for China to take on emission intensity commitments while OECD countries take on emission level commitments. Larger funds and flexibility in their use will also raise China's willingness to make commitments.

Abstract:
Recent trade and wages literature focuses on whether trade or technology has been the major source of increases in wage inequality in OECD countries since the 1980s. In this literature, no attention has been paid to demand side considerations. Using a simple heterogeneous goods trade model of the Armington type, and UK data, we show how trade shocks affecting the price of unskilled-intensive goods can be absorbed on the demand side, with little or no impact on relative wage rates. No wage impact occurs if the elasticity of substitution in preferences between imports and import substitutes is one. As this elasticity increases, trade plays an ever larger role in explaining wage inequality changes, and as the elasticity goes below one the sign of the effect changes. We suggest that since many import demand elasticity estimates are in the neighbourhood of one, there is a prima facie case that demand side considerations further lower the significance of trade as an explanation of recent trends in OECD wage inequality - beyond that reported in recent literature.

Abstract:
We discuss biases in preferences and their trade effects in terms of impacts on non-neutral trade flows motivated by recent literature on both home bias and the border effect. These terms take on multiple definitions in the literature and are often used interchangeably even though they differ. The border effect refers to a higher proclivity to trade behind rather than across national borders and is usually defined by the coefficients of regional dummies from an estimated gravity model. It can be present both in data and in counterfactual model solutions. Sometimes the reduced form of the gravity model used is asserted to reflect an Armington type model. For the border effect to occur as a model outcome, a structural model with at least 2 home regions and 1 country abroad is needed. In contrast to current literature, we offer a characterization of various forms of preference bias in trade models and measures of their associated trade effects based on a concept we term trade neutrality. These effects go beyond conventional border effects, and can be both across and within borders. Home bias is typically specified as an Armington preference for domestic over comparable foreign products in a trade model where goods are heterogeneous across countries. It is reflected in both model structure and parameterization, but defined in several different ways in the literature. We assess the contribution of each form of bias to the set of possible trade effects using a calibrated model with 3 Canadian regions, the U.S., and the rest of the world using 2001 data. We also evaluate how much of the conventional border effect is accounted for when model biases are modified in various ways.

Abstract:
If two disjoint country service networks involving a small and large country are connected as part of international liberalization in the presence of network externalities, the per capita gain for the small country from access to a large network will be large, and the per capita gain for the large country will be small. In contrast to goods, the benefits of liberalization in network-related services are more likely to be approximately equally divided between large and small countries than is true of trade in goods, where benefits accrue disproportionately to the small country. We also argue that non-cooperation in network-related services trade may involve more extreme retaliation than suggested for trade in goods by the optimal tariff literature, so that relative to a non-cooperative outcome, gains from liberalization in network-related services become larger than from liberalization in goods. We develop simple models which we use for numerical examples showing these points, along with an empirical implementation for global telecoms liberalization for the US, Europe, Canada, and the rest of the world using the framework developed in the paper. This shows similar proportional gains to regions, consistent with the theme of the paper that goods and services liberalization differ.

Abstract:
No abstract available.

Abstract:
Available data indicates a growing urban-rural income gap (the ratio of mean urban to rural incomes) with a significant increase from around 1.8 in the late 1980's to over 3 today. These estimates do not take into account the higher volatility of rural incomes in China. Current literature based on analyses of rural income volatility in China decomposes poverty into chronic and transient components using longitudinal survey data and assesses the fraction of the Foster, Greer and Thorbecke poverty gap attributable to mean income over time being below the poverty line. Resulting estimates of 40-50% transient poverty point to the policy conclusion that poverty may be a less serious social problem than it appears in annual data due to rural income volatility. Here we use a direct method instead to adjust rural income for volatility using a certainty equivalent income measure and recompute summary statistics for the distribution of volatility corrected incomes, including the urban-rural income gap on which much of current poverty debate in China focuses. Since an uncertain income stream is worth less in utility terms than a certain income stream we argue that heightened rural volatility increases the effective urban-rural income gap and intensifies not weakens poverty concerns. Using Chinese longitudinal rural survey data for which current decompositions can be replicated, we make adjustments for certainty equivalence of rural household income streams which not only widen the urban-rural income gap in China but also increases other distributional summary statistics. Depending upon values used for the coefficient of relative risk aversion, the measured urban-rural income gap increases by 20-30% using a certainty equivalent measure to adjust rural incomes for volatility. We also conduct similar analyses using consumption data, for which slightly larger increases occur.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear.

A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two-sided (OECD/non-OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour-intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross-border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liberalisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two-sided (OECD/non-OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one-sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.

Abstract:
This paper evaluates a possible US-SACU (Southern African Customs Union) free trade agreement as part of a US approach to new preferential trade agreements characterized by the term competitive liberalization.' This is the idea that competition among large countries (US/EU) to negotiate preferential arrangements with smaller countries or regions will lower barriers, and eventually add fresh impulse to new multilateral WTO negotiations. In commercial policy terms, the US interest in such an arrangement lies in improved access to a smaller but more protected market where the EU already has preferential arrangements, and the SACU interest lies in improved access to a much larger but less protected market. There is also a SACU interest in weakening the trade restrictive effects of MFA quotas in the US for apparel imports. The risk of entrapment in extremely complex rules of origin arrangements which at times close markets (as in NAFTA and other US bilaterals) is a concern for SACU. Also, gains to SACU may be only temporary because of the US proposal to eliminate non agricultural tariffs entirely in the WTO by 2015. In key non commodity trade areas (services, investment, intellectual property, temporary entry of business persons), if other US bilaterals are any guide most liberalization requested will be heavily asymmetric if not unilateral on the SACU side. SACU does not currently cover any of these items since it is only a customs union, and prior negotiation will be needed among SACU countries. SACU also clearly has an interest in coordinating its negotiation with other US bilateral negotiating partners. These and other barriers to negotiation (including negotiating capacity constraints in several SACU members) will influence the outcome of negotiations.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
Using a general equilibrium model of the United States economy,we examine the combined welfare cost of all taxes in the U.S. revenue system.We find that the welfare losses caused by distortionary taxation can be very large, both on average and at the margin.The marginal welfare loss to consumers from raising an additional dollar of revenue is in the range of 34 cents to 48 cents, depending on certain elasticities. This has very important implications for cost-benefit analysis.If a public project must be financed by distortionary taxes which cause dead-weight loss, this excess burden must be taken into account when we decide whether to undertake the project. Our calculations indicate that the marginal deadweight loss is between one-third and one-half of marginal revenues. This large wedge could cause us to approve many fewer projects than we would approve if we were to use the simple condition that the sum of the marginal rates of substitution should equal the marginal rate of transformation.The average deadweight loss per dollar of revenue is smaller than the marginal deadweight loss, but it is still substantial. We estimate that the present value of the gain from replacing the distortionary tax system with certain lump sum taxes would be in the range of $1.8 trillion to $3.1 trillion,or 13 cents to 22 cents per dollar of revenue. The gains would be about 60 percent as great if the existing system were replaced with a proportional income tax. Replacing the existing system with a consumption-type value-added tax would give even greater gains than those from switching to a proportional income tax.

Abstract:
This paper uses computational techniques to assess whether or not various propositions that have been advanced as plausible in the literature on Customs Unions (or other regional trade agreements) may actually hold. The idea is to make probabilistic statements as to whether propositions of interest might hold, rather than to restrict assumptions so they unambiguously hold. Our aim is to blend theory and numerical simulation and go beyond the ambiguous analytically derived propositions that dominate the theoretical literature so as to assess the likelihood of propositions holding for particular model specifications.

Abstract:
We develop a general equilibrium tax model to evaluate the impacts of equal yield base broadening in indirect taxes from high rate narrow based (typically manufactures) taxes to broad based taxes (including services) such as a VAT. We capture differences in choice of mode of supply between market goods, such as manufactures, which cannot be supplied other than through the market, and self-suppliable services and informal sector supplied products. Using this formulation, we are able to provide numerical examples of welfare worsening VAT base broadening, which expands the tax base from market based manufactures, in which there are few (or no) non taxed supply possibilities, to all goods and services where such possibilities exist. We show that the usual presumption that there are welfare benefits from equal yield VAT base broadening breaks down once tax induced increases in self supply of previously non taxed goods and services and in informal sector activity (in small scale construction and other areas) are taken into account. Moreover, since untaxed informal sector supply is typically from lower income to higher income households, they gain as comparable informal sector activity is taxed under the base broadening change. We provide a calibrated version of the model, which captures Canadian base broadening accompanying the introduction of the Canadian VAT (GST) in 1990. Results show the change to have been welfare worsening in aggregate but progressive; opposite to conventional belief. Aggregate welfare losses increase sharply if pre-existing income taxes enter the analysis, since VAT induced supply side losses compound with the income tax, while consumption side tax rate variance reducing gains do not

Abstract:
We discuss emerging proposals for border tax adjustments (BTAs) to accompany commitments to reduce carbon emissions in the EU, the US and other OECD economies. The rationale offered for such border adjustment is that various entities, such as the EU, if making commitments to reduce emissions which go beyond those undertaken in other regions of the world, impose added costs on domestic producers which create a competitive disadvantage for them. Some form of remedy is viewed as reasonable to maintain the competitiveness of domestic industries when responding to global environmental problems. In this paper, we argue that despite its current carbon manifestation, the issue of border tax adjustments and both their rationale and their effects on trade are not new and, despite the present debate (which seems to overlook older literature), have arisen before. Earlier debate on border tax adjustments occurred at the time of the adoption of the Value Added Tax (VAT) in the EU as a tax harmonization target in the early 1960's. But academic literature of the time showed that a change between origin and destination basis in the VAT would be neutral and hence the use of a destination based tax in the EU to accompany the VAT offered no trade advantage to Europe. Here we argue that essentially the same arguments also apply for carbon motivated BTAs, and in the current debate there seems to be a misconception between price level effects and relative price effects stemming from a BTA, which needs correcting. We also argue that the impact of border tax adjustments should be viewed as independent of the motivation of the adjustments.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
In countries, such as Singapore, that have implemented vehicle congestion policies, recent years have seen a shift towards motor vehicle taxes based on car use. Ownership taxes reduce the number of cars on the road, leaving the price per trip largely unaffected. Use taxes such as fuel taxes and road use charges decrease the price of trips without necessarily penalising vehicle ownership per se. This paper presents a simple general equilibrium model involving trips from residential areas to a central business district, along with modal choice between cars and public transit. Car trips involve fixed costs but have lower variable costs per trip (including convenience costs) then bus trips. Using a calibrated numerical model, we investigate the relative merits of ownership and use taxes. We compare full internalisation of congestion externalities to optimal tax outcomes for the different tax types. In our framework, use taxes restore Pareto optimality since congestion damage rises with more trips. Ownership taxes only partially internalise congestion externalities. However, in terms of revenue-raising ability, the marginal excess burdens of ownership taxes in the neighbourhood of optimal taxes are typically lower than use taxes. This is because marginal increases in ownership taxes take away part of the surplus accruing to consumers who still choose to travel by car, and thus have less distortion at the margin.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the medium to long-term implications of global warming for the evolution of global financial structures. Stern (2007) and other related scientific literature reports that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activities will very possibly lead to global temperature increase of 1-5 degrees C by 2050. This will cause a dramatic increase in global risks to human life. The response to this will be the seeking-out of financial innovation by major forms, primarily in the area of insurance, but also in the diversification of asset holdings. We suggest in this paper that, with modest climate changes of 1-2 degrees C, the global insurance market will expand dramatically. However, under more extreme climate change scenarios, the entire global financial structure will undergo major changes, with a re-focusing of major financial activity away from intermediation between borrowers and lenders and the facilitation of the accumulation of assets, and towards a focus on insurance arrangements and the diversification of risks associated with climate change.

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Abstract:
This paper presents estimates of static and dynamic general equilibrium resource allocation effects for four alternative plans for corporate and personal income tax integration in the U.S. A mediumscale numerical general equilibrium model is used which integrates the U.S. tax system with consumer demand behavior by household and producer behavior by industry. Results indicate that total integration of personal and corporate taxes would yield an annual static efficiency gain of around $4 billion (1973 dollars). Partial integration plans yield less. Dynamic effects are larger, and our analysis indicates that full integration may yield gains whose present value is as large as $400 billion or 0.8% of the discounted present value of the GNP stream to the U.S. economy after correction for population growth. Plans differ in their distributional impacts, although these findings depend on the nature of replacement taxes used to preserve government revenues. The size of dynamic resource allocation effects are sensitive to the choice of the replacement tax, while static gains are reasonably robust.

Abstract:
How to best utilize the wide range of estimates of elasticities that characterize econometric literature when using calibrated models is the issue we address here through a blending of econometrics and calibration into calibmetrics. Econometrically generated literature based elasticity parameters are typically used in calibrated models a very simple manner, appealing to a single value. Here we explicitly incorporate the full range of values of elasticities yielded by econometric studies in both the calibration procedure employed and the uses made of a calibrated model. This is important because the ranges for such values can be large. This allows us to assess how uncertainty in exogenously specified parameter values affects the performance of calibrated models, and how much added information is obtained by using the full range of literature estimates of key parameters in calibration.

Abstract:
Several of the recently negotiated regional trade agreements contain significantly fewer concessions by the large countries to smaller countries than vice versa. In this paper, we compute post-retaliation Nash tariffs by region under various regional trade arrangements using a calibrated numerical general equilibrium model of world trade. Regional agreements constrain strategic behaviour within each trading area, and (in the Customs Union case) enhance it outside the bloc. Results confirm the intuition that without side payments large-small country regional agreements (such as the Canada-U.S. agreement) would not have occurred.

Abstract:
Several of the recently negotiated regional trade agreements (Canada-U.S., NAFTA, E.C.-Hungary/Poland/Czeck and Slovak Republics) contain significantly fewer concessions by the large countries to smaller countries than vice versa. Yet, it is small countries that have sought them and see themselves as the main beneficiaries. In this paper we attempt to resolve this seeming paradox by interpreting such agreements as insurance arrangements for smaller countries, which partially protect them against the consequences of a global trade war. What they offer to the large countries in return is largely non-trade benefits (such as restraints on domestic policies in the smaller countries, firmer intellectual property protection, firmer guarantees of royalty arrangements affecting resources on state-owned lands). When evaluated alongside the regional trade arrangements of the 1960s (such as the E.C.), these agreements may appear to produce little or no benefit relative to the status quo for smaller countries; but when evaluated relative to a post-retaliation tariff equilibrium, the value of these agreements to small countries is large because they help preserve existing access to larger foreign markets. There is little incentive for large countries to negotiate such arrangements without side payments of the non-trade variety, because these agreements constrain their ability to play strategically against smaller neighbouring countries (who are still important trade partners) in a trade war. Such regional agreements compared across constrained and unconstrained Nash outcomes will typically be welfare worsening for large countries, and side payments are needed for the

Abstract:
The implications of national security related procedures for trade flows at border points in OECD countries has become a major topic of commentary in popular press. We discuss whether the economic costs of border delays are represented solely by time spent in awaiting processing. This has been the basis of calculations in Canada-US-Ontario (2004) and Ontario Chamber of Commerce (2004, 2005) of advalorem equivalent tariff representations of the time delays involved. While time can be a significant part of the social cost of security related delays in customs clearance, added costs also arise from the behavioral response to delays and looking only at the time delays at the border can be misleading. We use a formulation where border delays occur with certainty and add to the fixed costs of importing in any period. We develop analytics for the case where there is endogeneity both in the frequency of transactions and in the size of individual transactions across the border in the tradition of the well known Baumol (1952) and Tobin (1952) inventory theoretical analysis of the demand for money.

Abstract:
We discuss a simple model of choices of joint consumption by a working couple who place maintenance of their marriage (relationship) above all else. Any proposal made by one partner seeking to provide maximal utility to the other so as to preserve the marriage, in the case where preferences of partners are unknown, will be accepted. In this sense consumption is arbitrary. In a concluding section we suggest that while overly simple; this structure may characterize to some degree significant amounts of observed consumption, emphasizing how social arrangements and the value placed on them by individuals can impact on observed economic behavior.

values, preferences, lexicographic, relationship, partners

Abstract:
China's VAT while seemingly conventional has two major impurities. One is that a separate export rebate system exists where rebate rates are linked from rates paid on creditable inputs. The other is the use of an income base for which there is no crediting of taxes on capital good, rather than the more conventional consumption base with expensing of investment expenditures. Here we argue that in a conventional competitive model both impurities would typically involve a welfare loss, but if we use a numerical calibrated equilibrium model with a monetary structure capturing by these Chinese features in which the trade surplus is endogenously determined and the exchange rate is exogenously set, things are different. These impurities effectively act as added taxes on domestic production (lowed export rebate rates, taxes on a larger VAT base) and tax exporting. Tax exporting reduces exports which lowers the surplus and accumulation of foreign currency. In a static model, a reduced surplus is welfare improving. Using 2002 data, we thus find that China's impure VAT system yields welfare gains in contrast to what a conventional model would show. These results are important since there are arguments being made inside and outside China for changes to be made and move closer to a pure VAT. Our results suggest that unless there are wider changes first in macro-structure, such changes may not be welfare preferred.

Abstract:
In this paper we analyze income tax design in a two member household labor supply model where time spent on consumption together by the two household members is valued differently from time spent apart. We treat consumption as a non excludable public good to members of the household; one example would be where all household members or one alone can watch TV. When jointly consumed, however, TV services are valued more highly than the same consumption undertaken separately. We use this model to numerically investigate the welfare implications of different tax structures. In sharp contrast to existing literature, our results suggest the desirability of subsidizing secondary worker's labor supply. We also relate our discussion to existing individual-household tax unit literature.

Abstract:
In this paper we use numerical modeling methods to quantitatively assess the impacts of changes in home bias within regions on the growth of world trade among major blocs over the last three decades. Existing work focuses on the impacts of trade barrier, transport cost and income changes on trade growth, rather than preferences. Removing changes in home bias over the last three decades from our global general equilibrium model reduces world trade by 27% compared to actual world trade in 2004 in our central case scenario. These results support the view that world trade among major blocs has became more regionalized rather than internationalized which we suggest may be due to a proliferation of free trade agreements. We calibrate a simple global trade model of inter bloc trade to both 1975 and 2004 data and substitute different calibrated parameters from the two data sets between model parameterizations. Our results suggest that if changes over time in home bias involving different regionally sourced goods in a multi-region multi product model are removed, substantial effects follow for the growth of world trade in the last three decades. Home bias changes in developed and developing economies reduce world trade by 8% and 19% respectively, suggesting that regionalization is more pronounced in developing country trade. Our results also indicate that income growth, income convergence, and falling trade costs explain 76%, 4%, and 7% respectively of the growth of world trade over the last three decades.

Abstract:
We note the absence of prior literature on analytical structures to be used for China and other economies with extensive SOEs when evaluating behavioural responses of SOEs to trade policy and other changes. This is despite both the large empirical literature discussing the productivity effects of Chinese SOE enterprise reform, and wider policy discussion of the potential impacts of various reform initiatives. We present two simple analytical formulations of SOE behaviour in response to trade policy change with the aim of investigating how traditional competitive models of enterprise behaviour can mislead when used in policy debate. One formulation centres on SOE managerial control. In this enterprise managers are politically appointed, expect any non performing loans to be recapitalized by state banks andhence capital is centrally allocated by credit rationing. The managers are assured to maximize the size of the enterprise rather than profits since this yields maximal networking benefits to managers. This implies labour is priced at its average rather than its marginal product, and with a competitive non-manufacturing (agricultural) industry free trade is not optimal policy. The other assumes worker control of SOEs and that workers satisfice in their supply of effort to the enterprise given both fixed wage rates and enterprise employment and otherwise shirk or pursue second jobs. In this formulation the enterprise meets their budget constraint and covers costs. With leisure in the preferences of enterprise members, their leisure consumption will be implied by the satisfying behaviour of the enterprise and will be non optimal. In both model variants, implications for trade policy are different from those of a standard competitive model, and computations using models calibrated to 2003 Chinese data suggest the differences can be large.

Abstract:
Delays at the border for customs clearance are seemingly a central feature of the trade regime in the CIS states. Here, we argue that with queuing costs being endogenously determined in such circumstances tariff liberalization (even in the small economy case) can be welfare worsening since tariff revenues are replaced by resource using queuing costs. On the other hand, corruption can be welfare improving if queuing costs are replaced by resource transferring bribes. We also show how added distortions between perishable and non-perishable, or between light and heavy goods can also arise. We show these outcomes using a simple general equilibrium model, and explore the numerical implications using Russian data. The orders of magnitude are both significant and opposite in sign to conventional analyses.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the likely evolution of the trade and environment issue in the World Trade Organization after the upcoming ministerial meeting in Singapore this December. It makes a number of points. Progress within the GATT/WTO on this issue looks likely to be slow and painfully incremental rather than bold as environmental groups would wish to see. The paper also argues that despite (and beyond) Singapore, one has to go further than the GATT/WTO to see the potential evolution of the trade and environment issue. Developments seem likely to be driven in the next few years as much by factors outside the GATT/WTO as well as within it, as new global environmental arrangements, some with potentially large trade implications (such as carbon emission limitation agreements), emerge.

Abstract:
This paper focuses on the causes of increased wage inequality in OECD countries in recent years and its decomposition into the component factors of trade surges in low wage products and technological change that has preoccupied the trade and wages literature. It argues that the length of production run and degree of fixity of factors is crucial in such analyses. In particular, if the observed wage inequality response to price and technology shocks reflects a short-run response in which factors and output have not adjustedfully across industries, then decomposition analysis of the causes of the observed increases in inequality is substantially altered relative to a long-run factors mobile world. This conclusion applies both when one type of labour has mobility costs and in the Ricardo-Viner case where there is an additional, sectorally immobile factor. Furthermore, only small departures from the fully mobile model can greatly change decompositions. This finding is important because most data used in earlier work are interpreted as reflective of a long-run full mobility response, when this may not be the case. Incorrect conclusions as to how trade surges and technology contribute to wage inequality can be easily drawn, if the data are in fact generated by a short-run adjustment process.

Abstract:
This paper documents recent external sector liberalization in developing countries, evaluates what is behind it, and assesses whether it is likely to persist, accelerate or reverse itself. It draws heavily upon material collected during a recent Ford Foundation-supported research project on developing countries and the global trading system (see Whalley (1989)) covering eleven developing countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, Costa Rica, India, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, The Philippines, Republic of Korea and Tanzania). Many factors underlie these liberalizations. These include rethinking of the basic approach towards trade policy in a number of countries, with less commitment than earlier to import substitution and more interest in outward-oriented development strategies. Conditionality in World Bank and IMF lending programs appears important in Africa, and in some of the Asian and Latin American countries. In some cases, sector-specific liberalization has also been the result of bilateral pressure from the U.S. and the European Community. Recent strong macro performance in the developed world has also generated substantial growth in foreign exchange earnings for developing countries, and facilitated this liberslization. The paper concludes by suggesting that, in the short to medium term, some reciprocal actions by the developed countries in the GATT Uruguay Round would help in keeping domestic political support for these liberalizations alive.

Abstract:
We explore the implications of trade liberalization in economies with State Owned enterprises (SOEs) and shirking. SOEs are modelled as controlled by the members of the enterprise who determine output and effort levels, while facing output prices and wage rates set by government. Enterprise members must collectively meet a budget constraint that the value of sales equals the enterprise wage bill plus an exogenous enterprise commitment to the state budget. Labour can shirk either through low on the job effort (leisure), or through moonlighting to second jobs in the private sector. Three alternative formulations of equilibria in SOE economies are explored, and in these trade liberalization can produce effects opposite from conventional competitive models. In particular, the output of import competing SOEs increases rather than falls, and negative effects on imports can also occur. These models when calibrated to 1995 data for Vietnam also suggest quantitatively much larger impacts from trade liberalization than is the case for comparable conventional competitive models. This is because departures from Pareto optimality in SOE economies can be large and trade liberalization acts to discipline shirking associated with these inefficiencies. The implication we draw from our analysis is that to evaluate policy initiatives, such as trade liberalization, in developing and transition economies without explicitly recognizing the role that SOE's can play may be misleading. This is especially the case where SOEs account for a significant fraction of economic activity and shirking is involved.

Abstract:
Country incentives to participate in cooperative arrangements which either fully or partially internalize climate change externalities from carbon emissions involve critical asymmetries. Small countries trade off own country costs of carbon mitigation actions against their own benefits from global improvements in climate which benefit all. Small countries thus have limited incentive to participate as their actions, while costly to them, have a significant impact on global temperature change which mainly benefits others. Here we build on the work of Shapley and Shubik (1969) which suggests that the core of a global warming game without transferable utility may be empty and use numerical simulation methods to analyse country incentives to participate in carbon emission limitation negotiations using a micro global warming structure related to that used by Uzawa(2003).We discuss how the presence of international trade in goods affects the willingness of countries to join international negotiations on climate change. We calibrate our simulation structure to business as usual scenarios for the period 2006-2036. We go significantly beyond the PAGE model relied on in the Stern (2006) report in capturing multi-country interactive effects on the benefit side of climate change mitigation. We show how the perceived severity of global climate change damage influences participation decisions, and importantly how international trade makes participation more likely.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper sets out alternatives to the traditional model of labour supply used to analyse the welfare costs of income and/or sales taxes when preferences are defined over goods and leisure and the market wage yields the slope of the budget constraint. The innovation in our work is to assume that some or all of non market time is used to regenerate the productivity of labour through rest and relaxation. This model has no closed form solution, but we can work with the first order conditions numerically for specific functional forms using non linear solution software. We generate a number of alternative parameterizations of this model through a series of calibrations to the same synthetic base case data set. Across the resulting parameterizations the welfare costs of taxes vary substantially (by a factor of twenty fold in some counterfactual analyses), even though they all involve calibration to the same base case data and labour supply elasticity. These results thus suggest that a small and seemingly plausible departure from a standard model (even if not in closed form) that has dominated the economic literature for many years can yield substantial change for perspectives on policy interventions.

Abstract:
We evaluate efficiency considerations underlying the widespread exemption of food from sales and value added taxes and the implications for tax policy. Household and restaurant meals and both constant and increasing returns cases are examined. Higher taxes on food offset the non-taxation of time inputs into household production, even under constant returns to scale. With increasing returns, gains from taxing food are higher and amplified by subsidizing restaurant food and all marginal cost components of restaurant meals. On efficiency grounds, exemption of food from sales and value added taxes emerges as socially costly policy, especially under increasing returns.

Considerations d'efficacite et l'exemption de la nourriture dans les taxes de vente et les taxes sur la valeur ajoutee. Les auteurs examinent les questions d'efficacite qui soustendent l'exemption generalisee de la nourriture des taxes de vente ou des taxes sur la valeur ajoutee, ainsi que les implications qui en decoulent pour la politique de taxation. On examine la consommation par les menages et dans les restaurants a la fois pour le cas ou les rendements sont constants et croissants. Des taxes plus elevees sur la nourriture compensent pour la non-imposition du temps en tant qu'intrant dans la production des menages meme quand il y a rendements constants a l'echelle. Quand on a des rendements croissants, les gains provenant de l'imposition de la taxe sur la nourriture sont accrus et amplifies par la subvention a la nourriture de restaurant et toutes les composantes du cout marginal des repas au restaurant. Au plan de l'efficacite, l'exemption de la nourriture des taxes de vente ou des taxes sur la valeur ajoutee apparait comme une politique socialement couteuse, particulierement quand les rendements sont croissants.

Abstract:
This paper provides estimates of both national and global welfare costs of bilateral quotas on textiles and apparel using an applied general equilibrium model which covers bilateral quotas on exports of textiles and apparel negotiated between three major developed importing countries (the US, Canada and the EEC) and 34 supplying developing countries under the provisions of the Multifibre Arrangement applying in mid-1980s (MFA 111). Results using 1986 data clearly show that the vast majority of developing countries gain from MFA removal, with some gaining proportionately more than others. This suggests that despite foregone rent transfers, developing countries would receive gains by eliminating the MFA. In the central variant analysis, all developing countries gain by eliminating tariff and MFA restrictions because, contrary to popular belief, the developing countries (including Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan) are relatively small compared to developed countries even in apparel production. Rather than losing share to other developing countries under an MFA elimination, higher Income developing countries (like other developing countries) gain market share at the expense of reduced developed country production.

Abstract:
This paper presents a general equilibrium approach to calculating labour adjustment costs induced by trade policy changes or external sector shocks, which we illustrate by analyzing the adjustment consequences of eliminating quotas and tariffs on U.S. imports. In our approach, factor adjustments in the presence of transactions costs are endogenously determined within the equilibrium structure. The conventional way of calculating such labour adjustment costs is to use full equilibrium models which exclude adjustment costs, and apply exogenous estimates of duration of unemployment to implied intersectoral labour reallocations. By using an equilibrium model in which adjustment costs are absent, the conventional approach tends to overstate the amount of labour that moves to other sectors and hence introduces an upward bias to estimates of adjustment costs. As well, such an approach tends to ignore the impact on intersectoral wage rates. Our results suggest that concerns over adjustment problems should focus as much on the consequences of adjustment costs in impeding factor mobility, as on the magnitude of the adjustment costs themselves. Compared to the redistributive effects they induce by inhibiting labour movement in response to policy or other changes, these costs may be small.

Abstract:
This paper focuses on the decomposition of observed increases in UK wage inequality since 1979 into the component factors of competition from low-wage imports and technological change. Building on recent work by Abrego and Whalley, we argue that the length of production run and degree of fixity of factors is crucial in such analyses. If the response of labour markets to date is a short-run response, in which factors and output have not adjusted fully, then analysis of the causes of increased inequality is substantially altered relative to a long-run factors mobile world.

Abstract:
This paper explores how explicit incorporation of human capital affects dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the effects of taxes on capital formation and welfare in a life-cycle growth model. In contrast to the results of partial equilibrium analysis, we find that estimates of the full dynamic welfare costs of capital income taxes are little affected by incorporating human capital. While the short-run impact effects of replacing income taxes with wage or consumption taxes are significantly affected by endogenizing human capital, these effects are short-lived. In the long-run the rate of return on non-human capital falls to approximately its initial net of tax level, and steady-state human capital investment plans are therefore little affected by the tax changes. Although incorporating human capital thus does not greatly alter results in our numerical simulations, a wide range of extensions and modifications of the model are discussed which could in principle modify this conclusion.

Abstract:
There is a growing recognition among public finance economists of the inappropriateness of closed economy models for analyzing alternative U.S. tax policies. In response to this, this paper reports on four different external sector specifications for the Fullerton-Shoven-Whalley general equilibrium tax model of the U.S. The alternative formulations permit an assessment of their impact on model findings and provide the enhanced capability for analysis of tax policies which connect closely with foreign trade issues (such as a VAT). Results indicate that the different external sector formulations can substantially affect the model`s findings. When the model permits international capital flows, the effect of a tax policy can be quite different from what a closed economy model would predict. Capital mobility substantially increases the efficiency gain implied by corporate tax integration, while it more than eliminates the efficiency advantage of moving from an income tax to a consumption tax (unless adjustments are made in the foreign tax credit). The sensitivity of the efficiency evaluation of domestic tax policies to the functioning of international capital markets suggests the need for further research to determine precisely how those markets operate.

Abstract:
Since the Earth Summit in Rio 1992, several calls have been made for a world environmental organisation (WEO), and only during the last year, in the run-up to Rio+10, five more have been added. In total, we have found 17 proposals for a WEO. We review, compare, and briefly discuss rationales, models, tasks, organisational set-up, relations to multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and organisations such as UNEP and the WTO, as well as the role of principles, compliance and the interest of developing countries. We conclude that a majority of proposers is in favour of an autonomous coordinating agency, that is, a medium level of integration. Frequently the WTO is mentioned as a precursor agency on which a WEO should be based. We question the effectiveness of a 'WTO for the environment' and suggest that other models ought to be considered.

Abstract:
We discuss most favoured nation (MFN) treatment in trade agreements, suggesting that its value to individual countries depends critically on the relevant model solution concept used to evaluate it. We analyze both rights to MFN treatment in foreign markets, and the obligation to grant MFN treatment in home markets; the heart of the post-war GATT/WTO multilateral trading system. In a traditional competitive equilibrium framework, MFN gives benefits to small countries in being able to free ride on bilateral tariff concessions exchanged between larger countries in GATT/WTO negotiating rounds. In a non-cooperative Nash equilibrium framework, MFN restrains retaliatory actions to be non-discriminatory. In a co-operative bargaining framework in which trade policies are jointly set, MFN changes the threat point and hence affects the bargaining solution. We use a calibrated numerical model of global trade in which we compute all three solution concepts and compare MFN and non MFN equilibria for each. We use the GTAP (1992) data base, concluding that quantitatively the most significant effect of MFN seems to be in its impact on bargaining rather than on competitive and Nash equilibrium solutions; being beneficial to smaller countries.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the relative importance of the major factors underlying the post-1978 increase in China's agricultural productivity. We present a method for assessing the role of price increases and strenghthened individual incentives due to the introduction of the responsibilty system. Data on pre- and post-1978 Chinese agricultural performance are used to calculate incentive indices, giving the fraction of their marginal product that peasants received under the pre-1978 regime.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Existing literature assessing the impacts of transfers on low income households assumes that transfer program participants benefit by the full amount of cash transfers received. We argue that because tax-back arrangements accompany such transfer programmes, and endogenous participantion decisions (regime choices) are involved, a money-metric measure of the utility generated by transfers will typically be substantially less than the cash value of transfers received. We use a conditional choice general equilibrium model of the UK, calibrated to literature based labor supply and labor demand elasticities, with a leisure-consumption choice for household and production involving heterogeneous labor inputs. In the model households face non-convex budgets set due to differences in tax rates and tax-back schemes in transfer programmes. Household demands for leisure and consumption goods are evaluated numerically using optimization techniques within a larger equilibrium structure including the production side of the economy since demand are non-analytic. Model results suggest that a money-metric measure of the utility equivalent of transfers received by the bottom deciles of UK households in the early 1990s was only 32 percent of cash transfers received due to the conditionality in these programmes.

Abstract:
This paper presents both analytics and numerical simulation results relevant to proposals for carbon motivated regional trade agreements summarized in Dong & Whalley(2008). Unlike traditional regional trade agreements, by lowing tariffs on participant’s low carbon emission goods and setting penalties on outsiders to force them to join such agreements, carbon motivated regional trade agreements reflect an effective merging of trade and climate change regimes, and are rising in profile as part of the post 2012 Copenhagen UNFCC negotiation. By adding country energy extraction cost functions, we develop a multi-region general equilibrium structure with endogenously determined energy supply. We calibrate our model to business as usual scenarios for the period 2006-2036. Our results show that carbon motivated regional agreements can reduce global emissions, but the effect is very small and even with penalty mechanisms used, the effects are still small. This supports the basic idea in our previous policy paper that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.