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Abstract:
We provide a framework for using conditioning information in the process of global asset allocation. While we discuss strategies in a global setting, the same reasoning can be applied to other asset allocation programs with different investment objectives. We examine three levels of asset allocation: unconditional or benchmark allocation, strategic asset allocation, and tactical asset allocation. We show how to use conditioning information in the process of global tactical asset allocation. An important lesson emerges. There is considerable work documenting predictability of returns using past information variables. Many of these variables are related to the stage of the business cycle, and suggest that much of the predictability in these assets, or markets, are common. The fact that returns are predictable means that active asset allocation strategies can outperform passive strategies. Uncovering the predictability is challenging as it but allows managers to beat traditional benchmarks.

Benchmarks, strategic asset allocation, tactical asset allocation, dynamic trading strategies, return predictability, trading strategies, active management, passive management, business cycle, yield curve, term structure

Abstract:
If investors are poorly protected, it is optimal for firms to be closely held because selling shares to minority shareholders is otherwise too expensive. Empirically, most firms in countries with poor investor protection are closely held so that investors cannot hold the market portfolio. We show that the prevalence of closely held firms in countries with poor investor protection explains part of the home bias of U.S. investors. We construct an estimate of the world portfolio of shares available to investors who are not controlling shareholders (the world float portfolio). The world float portfolio differs sharply from the world market portfolio. In regressions explaining the portfolio weights of U.S. investors, the world float portfolio has a positive significant coefficient but the world market portfolio has no additional explanatory power. This result holds when we control for country characteristics. An analysis of foreign investor holdings at the firm level for Sweden confirms the importance of the float portfolio as a determinant of these holdings.

Abstract:
Traditional mean-variance efficient portfolios do not capture the potential wealth creation opportunities provided by predictability of asset returns. We propose a simple method for constructing optimally managed portfolios that exploits the possibility that asset returns are predictable. We implement these portfolios in both single and multi-period horizon settings. We compare alternative portfolio strategies which include both buy-and-hold and fixed weight portfolios. We find that managed portfolios can significantly improve the mean-variance trade-off, in particular, for investors with investment horizons of three to five years. Also, in contrast to popular advice, we show that the buy-and-hold strategy should be avoided.

Abstract:
Traditional mean-variance efficient portfolios do not capture the potential wealth creation opportunities provided by predictability of asset returns. We propose a simple method for constructing optimally managed portfolios that exploits the possibility that asset returns are predictable. We implement these portfolios in both single and multi-period horizon settings. We compare alternative portfolio strategies which include both buy-and-hold and fixed weight portfolios. We find that managed portfolios can significantly improve the mean-variance trade-off, in particular, for investors with investment horizons of three to five years. Also, in contrast to popular advice, we show that the buy-and-hold strategy should be avoided.

Dynamic strategies, mean-variance optimization, multiperiod choice, efficient frontier, buy-and-hold investment

Abstract:
This paper assesses the ability of international asset pricing models to explain the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. All the models considered seem to capture national market returns fairly well. However, global portfolios, sorted on earnings-price ratio and market value, pose a special challenge. We find that an unconditional international CAPM cannot explain the cross-sectional variation in these portfolio returns. Interestingly, a conditional international asset pricing model that includes foreign exchange risk factors is able to explain a large part of the variation in average returns. Our empirical work suggests that this model has the same explanatory ability as an international three-factor model, where zero-cost portfolios based on earnings-price ratios and market values are used in addition to the world market portfolio. Importantly, the loadings associated with the zero-cost portfolios are driven out by the characteristics themselves, indicating a misspecification.

Characteristics, Conditional Information, Foreign Exchange Risk, HML, SMB, World CAPM

Abstract:
This Paper assesses the ability of international asset pricing models to explain the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. All the models considered seem to capture national market returns fairly well. Global portfolios sorted on earnings-price ratio and market value, however, pose a special challenge. We find that an unconditional international CAPM cannot explain the cross-sectional variation in these portfolio returns. Interestingly, a conditional international asset-pricing model that includes foreign exchange risk factors is able to explain a large part of the variation in average returns. Our empirical work suggests that this model has the same explanatory ability as an international three-factor model, where zero-cost portfolios based on earnings-price ratios and market values are used in addition to the world market portfolio. Importantly, the loadings associated with the zero-cost portfolios are driven out by the characteristics themselves, indicating a misspecification.

Characteristics, conditional information, foreign exchange risk, HML, SMB, world CAPM

Abstract:
Standard asset pricing models have difficulty explaining cross-sectional differences in observed equity risk premia of developed and emerging markets. We argue that national equity returns are subject to sample selectivity. The lack of credible commitment to keep capital markets open (risk of expropriation) leads to this bias. We use the world CAPM for systematic risk and develop a model of sample selectivity. We find that after taking account of the sample selectivity bias, our model of systematic risk can account for the differences in risk premia quite well. We estimate the average expropriation risk to be more than 1/2 of the ex-post risk premium for emerging economies and close to zero for developed economies. Further, we argue that the measured selectivity bias in equity premia provide valuable economic information regarding the incentives for sovereigns not to expropriate international investors. We find that the measured expropriation risk is related to reputations in capital markets (as argued in Eaton and Gersowitz, 1981) and to the magnitude of trade that an economy conducts (as argued in Bulow and Rogoff, 1989a, 1989b).

Sample Selectivity, Sovereign Risk, Peso Problem, World CAPM.

Abstract:
The average firm going public or issuing new equity underperforms the market in the long run. This underperformance could be related to the endogeneity of the number of new issues, if new issues cluster after periods of high abnormal returns on new issues. In such a case, ex-post measures of new issue abnormal returns may be negative on average, despite the absence of ex-ante abnormal returns. We evaluate this endogeneity problem in event studies of long-run performance. We argue that it is unlikely that the endogeneity of the number of new issues explains the long-run underperformance of equity issues.

Abnormal return measures, Endogenous events, Event studies, Initial public offerings, Long-run underperformance

Abstract:
We study a large data set of stock portfolios held by individuals and organizations in the Swedish stock market. The dividend yields on these portfolios are systematically related to investors' relative tax preferences for dividends versus capital gains. Tax-neutral investors earn 40 basis points higher dividend yield on their portfolios than investors which face higher effective taxation of dividends than capital gains. We conclude that there are dividend tax clienteles in the market. We also argue that the abundant portfolio holdings by closely-held corporations, despite triple taxation at a combined marginal tax rate as high as 77.5%, is a consequence of taxation.

Capital gains tax, dividend tax clienteles, stock ownership, tax incidence

Abstract:
We evaluate the dividend tax clientele hypothesis using a data set of all stock portfolios in the market. Consistent with the predictions of Tax-CAPM, we find that tax-neutral investors tilt their stock portfolios towards dividend-paying stocks and earn about 40 basis points higher dividend yield than investment funds that prefer capital gains over dividends. We also document that private corporations, foundations, and partnerships have deviating dividend preferences, and discuss how these portfolio behaviors relate to special tax or charter provisions.

Tax-CAPM, stock ownership, institutional investors, private corporations, foundations, partnerships

Abstract:
We study the investment behavior of foreign investors in association with an equity market liberalization, and find a strong link between foreigners' trading and local market returns. In the period following the liberalization, foreigners' net purchases led to a permanent increase in prices, or equivalently, a permanent reduction of the cost of equity capital. We also find a strong link between a firm's fraction of foreign ownership and the magnitude of the reduction of cost of capital. Foreign investors seem to prefer large and well-known firms, and these firms realize the most sizeable cuts in capital costs. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that foreigners act like non-informed feedback traders. In particular, they increase their net holding in firms that have recently performed well. Analyzing foreigners' performance, we find very little evidence of informed trading, suggesting that risk sharing is the most plausible explanation for the reduction in the cost of equity capital.

Feedback Trading, Momentum, Portfolio Flows

Abstract:
Standard asset pricing models have difficulty explaining cross-sectional differences in observed equity risk premia of developed and emerging markets. We argue that national equity returns are subject to sample selectivity and peso biases. The lack of credible commitment to keep capital markets open (risk of expropriation) leads to these biases. We develop a general equilibrium model for systematic risk (related to market risk and volatility risk) and sample selectivity. We find that after taking account of the sample selectivity bias, our model of systematic risk can account for the differences in risk premia quite well. We estimate the average expropriation risk to be about two-thirds of the ex-post risk premium for emerging economies and close to zero for developed economies. Further, we argue that the measured selectivity bias in equity premia provide valuable economic information regarding the incentives for sovereigns not to expropriate international investors. We find that the measured expropriation risk is related to reputations in capital markets (as argued in Eaton and Gersowitz, 1981) and to the magnitude of trade that an economy conducts (as argued in Bulow and Rogoff, 1989a, 1989b).

Credibility, dynamic general equilibrium model, international CAPM, sample selectivity, peso problems

Abstract:
This paper studies the relation between fund performance and fund attributes in the Swedish market. Performance is measured as the alpha in a linear regression of fund returns on several benchmark assets, allowing for time-varying betas. The estimated performance is then used in a cross-sectional analysis of the relation between performance and fund attributes such as past performance, flows, size, turnover, and proxies for expenses and trading activity. The results show, among other things, that good performance is to be found among small equity funds, low-fee funds, funds whose trading activity is high, and in some cases, funds with good past performance.

flows, persistence, portfolio evaluation, survivorship bias, style analysis

Abstract:
We study the investment behaviour of foreign investors in association with an equity market liberalization, and find a strong link between foreigners' trading and local market returns. In the period following the liberalization, foreigners' net purchases led to a permanent increase in prices, or equivalently, a permanent reduction of the cost of equity capital. We also find a strong link between a firm's fraction of foreign ownership and the magnitude of the reduction of cost of capital. Foreign investors seem to prefer large and well-known firms, and these firms realize the most sizeable cuts in capital costs. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that foreigners act like non-informed feedback traders. In particular, they increase their net holding in firms that have recently performed well. Analysing foreigners' performance, we find very little evidence of informed trading, suggesting that risk sharing is the most plausible explanation for the reduction in the cost of equity capital.

Feedback trading, momentum, portfolio flows

Abstract:
The average firm going public or issuing new equity underperforms the market in the long run. A potential explanation of this long-run underperformance has to do with the endogeneity of the number of new issues. That is, due to the clustering of events after periods of high abnormal returns in issues, ex post measures of average abnormal returns may be negative on average despite zero ex ante abnormal returns. This could lead one to incorrectly infer underperformance. We provide a thorough evaluation of the endogeneity problem in event studies as it relates to long-run underperformance and undertake both theoretical and simulation analyses. We argue that it is unlikely that the endogeneity of the number of new issues explains the long-run underperformance in equity issuances.

Abnormal return measures, endogenous events, event studies, initial public offerings, long-run underperformance, pseudo market timing

Abstract:
We first discuss performance evaluation using stochastic discount factors and relate it to traditional mean-variance analysis. We then use Monte Carlo experiments to examine the properties of various general method of moment (GMM) estimators. The test statistics are fairly well behaved although serious size distortions are found in some cases. The simulations also show that significant excess return, or a long sample, is needed to reject neutral performance. Finally, we offer an evaluation of Swedish-based mutual funds. The conditional evaluation indicates that funds have had nonneutral performance as revealed by the predictability of the unconditional performance measure.