• Selected
• Entire List

Abstract:
This paper develops a broad concept of systemic risk, the basic economic concept for the understanding of financial crises. It is claimed that any such concept must integrate systemic events in banking and financial markets as well as in the related payment and settlement systems. At the heart of systemic risk are contagion effects, various forms of external effects. The concept also includes simultaneous financial instabilities following aggregate shocks. The quantitative literature on systemic risk, which was evolving swiftly in the last couple of years, is surveyed in the light of this concept. Various rigorous models of bank and payment system contagion have now been developed, although a general theoretical paradigm is still missing. Direct econometric tests of bank contagion effects seem to be mainly limited to the United States. Empirical studies of systemic risk in foreign exchange and security settlement systems appear to be non-existent. Moreover, the literature surveyed reflects the general difficulty to develop empirical tests that can make a clear distinction between contagion in the proper sense and joint crises caused by common shocks, rational revisions of depositor or investor expectations when information is asymmetric ("information-based" contagion) and "pure" contagion as well as between "efficient" and "inefficient" systemic events.
currency crises

Systemic risk, financial stability, banking crises, contagion, financial markets, payment and settlement systems,

Abstract:
This Paper develops a broad concept of systemic risk, the basic economic concept for the understanding of financial crises. It is claimed that any such concept must integrate systemic events in banking and financial markets as well as in the related payment and settlement systems. At the heart of systemic risk are contagion effects, various forms of external effects. The concept also includes simultaneous financial instabilities following aggregate shocks. The quantitative literature on systemic risk, which has evolved swiftly in the last couple of years, is surveyed in the light of this concept. Various rigorous models of bank and payment system contagion have now been developed, although a general theoretical paradigm is still missing. Direct econometric tests of bank contagion effects seem to be mainly limited to the United States. Empirical studies of systemic risk in foreign exchange and security settlement systems appear to be non-existent. Moreover, the literature surveyed reflects the general difficulty in developing empirical tests that can make a clear distinction between contagion in the proper sense and joint crises caused by common shocks, rational revisions of depositor or investor expectations when information is asymmetric ('information-based' contagion) and 'pure' contagion as well as between 'efficient' and 'inefficient' systemic events.

Banking crises, contagion, currency crises, financial markets, financial stability, payment and settlement systems, systemic risk

Abstract:
We model the impact of bank mergers on loan competition, banks' reserve holdings and aggregate liquidity. Banks compete in a differentiated loan market, hold reserves against liquidity shocks, and refinance in the inter-bank market. A merger creates an internal money market that induces financial cost advantages and may increase reserve holdings. We assess changes in liquidity risk and expected liquidity needs for each bank and for the banking system. Large mergers tend to increase expected aggregate liquidity needs, and thus the liquidity provision by the central bank. Comparative statistics suggest that a more competitive environment moderates this effect.

Credit market competition, bank reserves, internal money market, banking system liquidity

Abstract:
We model the impact of bank mergers on loan competition, banks' reserve holdings and aggregate liquidity. Banks compete in a differentiated loan market, hold reserves against liquidity shocks, and refinance in the interbank market. A merger creates an internal money market that induces financial cost advantages and may increase reserve holdings. We assess changes in liquidity risk and expected liquidity needs for each bank and for the banking system. Large mergers tend to increase expected aggregate liquidity needs, and thus the liquidity provision by the central bank. Comparative statics suggest that a more competitive environment moderates this effect.

Credit market competition, bank reserves, internal money market, banking system liquidity

Abstract:
Four years after the introduction of the euro, this paper provides an overview of the current structure and integration of the euro area financial systems and related policy initiatives. We first compare the euro area financial structure with that of the United States and Japan. Using new and comprehensive financial account data, we also describe how the euro area financial structure evolved since 1995. We document the progress towards integration of the major euro area financial segments, namely money markets, bond markets, equity markets and banking. Finally, we discuss recent policy initiatives aimed at further improving European financial integration.

Financial system design, financial structure, financial integration, euro area, financial policy

Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between competition policies and policies to preserve stability in the banking sector. Market structures and the relative importance of the three classical antitrust areas for banking are discussed, showing the predominance of merger review considerations for loan and deposit markets as well as the relevance of cartel considerations for payment systems. A core part of the paper is an analysis of the relative roles of competition and supervisory authorities in the review of bank mergers for the G-7 industrialised countries. A wide variety of approaches emerges, with some countries giving a stronger role to prudential supervisors than to competition authorities and other countries doing it the other way round. In search for explanations for this diversity the theoretical and empirical literature on the competition-stability nexus in banking is surveyed. It turns out that the widely accepted trade-off between competition and stability does not generally hold.

Bank competition, antitrust policies, mergers & acquisitions, financial stability, banking supervision

Abstract:
This paper provides the first empirical examination of the microstructure of the euro money market, using tick data from brokers located in 6 countries. Special emphasis is put on the institutional environment (monetary policy decisions and their implementation, payment systems and private market structures) and its implications for intraday volatility, quoting activity, trading volume and bid-ask spreads in the overnight deposit segment. Volatility and spreads increase right after ECB monetary policy decisions, but market expectations of the interest rate changes were relatively precise during the sample period. Main refinancing operations with the open market are associated with active liquidity re-allocation, little volatility and no signs of market power or adverse selection. Spreads and volatility were high at the end of the reserve maintenance periods and during the year 2000 changeover. Even intraday, overnight rate levels hardly differ across euro area countries, reflecting active arbitrage and a high degree of integration.

euro; financial market microstructure; high-frequency data; liquidity; money market; monetary policy instruments; overnight deposit rates; payment systems; reserve requirements; trading volume; transaction costs; volatility

Abstract:
This Paper provides the first empirical examination of the microstructure of the euro money market, using tick data from brokers located in six countries. Special emphasis is put on the institutional environment (monetary policy decisions and their implementation, payment systems and private market structures) and its implications for intraday volatility, quoting activity, trading volume and bid-ask spreads in the overnight deposit segment. Volatility and spreads increase right after ECB monetary policy decisions, but market expectations of the interest rate changes were relatively precise during the sample period. Main refinancing operations with the open market are associated with active liquidity re-allocation, little volatility and no signs of market power or adverse selection. Spreads and volatility were high at the end of the reserve maintenance periods and during the year 2000 changeover. Even intraday, overnight rate levels hardly differ across euro area countries, reflecting active arbitrage and a high degree of integration.

Auctions, financial market microstructure, high-frequency data, monetary policy instruments, overnight deposit rates, payment systems, reserve requirements, trading volume, transaction costs

Abstract:
This paper provides the first empirical examination of the microstructure of the euro money market, using tick data from brokers located in 6 countries. Special emphasis is put on the institutional environment (monetary policy decisions and their implementation, payment systems and private market structures) and its implications for intraday volatility, quoting activity, trading volume and bid-ask spreads in the overnight deposit segment. Volatility and spreads increase right after ECB monetary policy decisions, but market expectations of the interest rate changes were relatively precise during the sample period. Main refinancing operations with the open market are associated with active liquidity re-allocation, little volatility and no signs of market power or adverse selection. Spreads and volatility were high at the end of the reserve maintenance periods and during the year 2000 changeover. Even intraday, overnight rate levels hardly differ across euro area countries, reflecting active arbitrage and a high degree of integration.

brokers, euro, financial market microstructure, high-frequency data, liquidity, money market, monetary policy instruments, overnight deposit rates, payment systems, reserve requirements, trading volume, transaction costs, volatility

Abstract:
We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure. Contrary to correlation analysis, this non-parametric measure is not predisposed towards the normal distribution and can account for non-linear relationships. Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes between stock markets are much more likely than between bond markets. However, for the assessment of financial system stability the widely disregarded cross-asset perspective is particularly important. For example, our data show that stock-bond contagion is about as frequent as flight-to-quality from stocks into bonds. Extreme cross-border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages, illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration.

Financial crises, systemic risk, contagion, market crashes, flight to quality, bivariate extreme value analysis, extreme co-movements

Abstract:
We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure. Contrary to correlation analysis, this non-parametric measure is not predisposed towards the normal distribution and can account for non-linear relationships. Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes in stock markets are about two times more likely than in bond markets. Moreover, stock-bond contagion is about as frequent as flight to quality from stocks into bonds. Extreme cross-border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages, illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration.

Financial crises, systemic risk, contagion, market crashes, flight to quality, bivariate extreme value analysis, extreme co-movements

Abstract:
We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure. Contrary to correlation analysis, this non-parametric measure is not predisposed towards the normal distribution and can account for non-linear relationships. Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes in stock markets are about two times more likely than in bond markets. Moreover, stock-bond contagion is about as frequent as flight to quality from stocks into bonds. Extreme cross-border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages, illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration.

Financial crises, systemic risk, contagion, market crashes, flight to quality, bivariate extreme value analysis, extreme co-movements

Abstract:
This paper discusses the factors determining the international use of the euro, the relation of it with the ECB monetary policy and the overall use of the euro in the international monetary system since its introduction. The euro has become the second most important international currency after the dollar and in advance of the yen. Changes in this role could have an impact on the monetary policy strategy of the ECB, notably the interpretation of monetary aggregates and the behaviour of other indicators such as the exchange rate. The ECB strategy is well designed to deal with these effects.

international currencies, euro, dollar, yen, monetary policy, monetary aggregates, exchange rate, international monetary system, EMU, European Central Bank

Abstract:
This paper discusses the factors determining the international use of the euro, the relation of it with the ECB monetary policy and the overall use of the euro in the international monetary system since its introduction. The euro has become the second most important international currency after the dollar and in advance of the yen. Changes in this role could have an impact on the monetary policy strategy of the ECB, notably the interpretation of monetary aggregates and the behaviour of other indicators such as the exchange rate. The ECB strategy is well designed to deal with these effects.

international currencies, euro, dollar, yen, monetary policy, monetary aggregates, exchange rate, international monetary system, EMU, European Central Bank

Abstract:
This paper provides a broad empirical examination of the major currencies' roles in international capital markets, with a special emphasis on the first year of the euro. A contribution is made as to how to measure these roles, both from the viewpoint of international financing as well as from the one of international investment activities. Time series of these new measures are presented, including euro aggregates calculated up to five years back in time. The data allow for the identification of changes in the role of the euro (or other main currencies) during 1999 compared to the aggregate of euro predecessor currencies, net of intra-euro area assets/ liabilities, before stage 3 of EMU. A number of key factors determining the currency distribution of international portfolio investments, such as relative market liquidity and relative risk characteristics of assets, are also examined empirically. It turns out that for almost all important market segments for which data are available, the euro immediately became the second most widely used currency for international financing and investment. For the flow of international bond and note issuance it has even slightly overtaken the US dollar in the second half of 1999. The data also suggest that this early supply of euro bonds by non-euro area residents, clearly exceeding the euro-predecessor currency aggregate, is actually absorbed by euro area residents and not y outside investors so far.

International Capital Markets, International Currencies, Euro, Dollar, Yen, EMU, Capital Flows, International Monetary System, Portfolio Selection, Money Markets, Bond Markets, Equity Markets, Bank Lending

Abstract:
Long before the introduction of the euro there was an active debate among researchers, policy-makers and financial market participants over how the new European money would change the relative roles of currencies in the international monetary and financial system. A widely held view was that the european's use in international capital markets would be the key element. Therefore, this paper provides a broad empirical examination of the major currencies' roles in international capital markets, with a special emphasis on the first year of the euro. A contribution is made as to how to measure these roles, both from the viewpoint of international financing and from that of international investment activities. Time series of these new measures are presented, including euro aggregates calculated up to six years back in time. The data allow for the identification of changes in the role of the euro during 1999 compared to the aggregate of euro predecessor currencies, net of intra-euro area assets/liabilities, since the start of stage 2 of EMU in 1994. A number of key factors determining the currency distribution of international portfolio investments, such as relative market liquidity and relative risk characteristics of assets, are also examined empirically. It turns out that for almost all important market segments for which data are available, the euro immediately became the second most widely used currency for international financing and investment. For the flow of international bond and note issuance it even slightly overtook the US dollar in the second half of 1999. The data also suggest that most of this early supply of euro bonds by non-euro area residents, clearly exceeding the euro-predecessor currency aggregate, is actually absorbed by euro area residents and not by outside investors so far.

international capital markets, international currencies, euro, dollar, yen, EMU, capital flows, international monetary system, portfolio selection, bond markets, equity markets, bank lending

Abstract:
The extended period of limited growth experienced until recently in many European countries raises the issue as to which policies could be most effective in improving their economic performance. This paper argues that further financial sector reforms may be a valuable complement to ongoing efforts to reform labour and product markets. There is a long-standing view in the economic literature that well-functioning financial systems allow economies to exploit the benefits of innovation in terms of productivity and growth. Moreover, measured productivity differentials between Europe and the United States seem to originate particularly in the financial sector and from sectors that are particularly dependent on external financing. Building on and summarising the existing literature, this paper first introduces a number of concepts that are important for financial sector analyses and policies. Second, it presents a selection of indicators describing the efficiency and development of the European financial system from the perspective of a variety of dimensions. Third, an attempt is made to estimate the extent to which greater financial efficiency might improve the allocation of productive capital in Europe. While in the recent past the research and policy debate in Europe has focused on fostering financial integration, the present paper puts the main emphasis on financial development or modernisation in the context of the finance and growth literature. The results suggest that there are a number of ways in which the financial market framework conditions in Europe can be improved to increase the contribution of the financial system to innovation, productivity and growth. The most robust conclusions can be drawn for certain aspects of corporate governance, the efficiency of legal systems in resolving conflicts in financial transactions and some structural features of European bank sectors. For example, econometric estimations indicate that improving these conditions is likely to increase the size of capital markets - a summary measure of overall financial development - and thereby enhance the speed with which the financial system helps to reallocate capital from declining sectors to sectors with good growth potentials.

Abstract:
There is a long-standing debate about the special nature of banks. Based on a unique dataset of legislative changes in industrial countries, we identify events that strengthen competition policy, analyze their impact on banks and non-financial firms and explain the reactions observed with institutional features that distinguish banking from non-financial sectors. Covering nineteen countries for the period 1987 to 2004, we find that banks are special in that a more competition-oriented regime for merger control increases banks' stock prices, whereas it decreases those of non-financial firms. Moreover, bank merger targets become more profitable and larger. A major determinant of the positive bank returns, after controlling inter alia for the general quality of institutions and individual bank characteristics, is the opaqueness that characterizes the institutional setup for supervisory bank merger reviews. Thus strengthening competition policy in banking may generate positive externalities in the financial system that offset unintended adverse side effects on efficiency introduced through supervisory policies focusing on prudential considerations and financial stability. Legal arrangements governing competition and supervisory control of bank mergers may therefore have important implications for real activity.

specialness of banks, mergers and acquisitions, competition policy, legal institutions, financial specialness of banks, mergers and acquisitions, competition policy, legal institutions, financial regulation

Abstract:
This paper derives indicators of the severity and structure of banking system risk from asymptotic interdependencies between banks' equity prices. We use new tools available from multivariate extreme value theory to estimate individual banks' exposure to each other (contagion risk) and to systematic risk. Moreover, by applying structural break tests to those measures we study whether capital markets indicate changes in the importance of systemic risk over time. Using data for the United States and the euro area, we can also compare banking system stability between the two largest economies in the world. Finally, for Europe we assess the relative importance of cross-border bank spillovers as compared to domestic bank spillovers. The results suggest, inter alia, that systemic risk in the US is higher than in the euro area, mainly as cross-border risks are still relatively mild in Europe. On both sides of the Atlantic systemic risk has increased during the 1990s.

Abstract:
This paper derives indicators of the severity and structure of banking system risk from asymptotic interdependencies between banks' equity prices. We use new tools available from multivariate extreme value theory to estimate individual banks' exposure to each other ("contagion risk") and to systematic risk. By applying structural break tests to those measures we study whether capital markets indicate changes in the importance of systemic risk over time. Using data for the United States and the euro area, we can also compare banking system stability between the two largest economies in the world. For Europe we assess the relative importance of cross-border bank spillovers as compared to domestic bank spillovers. The results suggest, inter alia, that systemic risk in the US is higher than in the euro area, mainly as cross-border risks are still relatively mild in Europe. On both sides of the Atlantic systemic risk has increased during the 1990s.

Banking, Systemic Risk, Asymptotic Dependence, Multivariate Extreme Value Theory, Structural Change Tests

Abstract:
This paper studies the stability implications of the cross-border integration of interbank markets. Integration enhances the diversification options of banks across borders and improves the resilience of the banking sector to idiosyncratic shocks. At the same time integration also increases the risk of contagion across borders given aggregate asymmetric shocks: A default of one bank due to a severe regional shock is transmitted over an integrated interbank market to banks across borders and might ultimately destabilize banks that were initially not affect be the regional shock. When analyzing this trade-off this paper takes into account that improved diversification options of idiosyncratic risks affect banks investment decisions leading to more specialization in lending. Apparently, the greater the specialization the larger is the need for risk sharing and the more reliant are regional financial institutions on the integrated financial market. Thus due to financial integration the exposure to other regions rises and increases the systemic risk.

Financial integration, interbank market, specialization, financial contagion

Abstract:
Based on a unique dataset of legislative changes in industrial countries, we identify events that strengthen the competition control of mergers and acquisitions, analyze their impact on banks and non-financial firms and explain the different reactions observed with specific regulatory characteristics of the banking sector. Covering nineteen countries for the period 1987 to 2004, we find that more competition-oriented merger control increases the stock prices of banks and decreases the stock prices of non-financial firms. Bank targets become more profitable and larger, while those of non-financial firms remain mostly unaffected. A major determinant of the positive bank returns is the degree of opaqueness that characterizes the institutional setup for supervisory bank merger reviews. The legal design of the supervisory control of bank mergers may therefore have important implications for real activity.

mergers and acquisitions, competition policy, legal institutions, financial regulation

Abstract:
Capital adequacy regulations or quantity restrictions on bank portfolios put forward by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision have virtually become an international standard of prudential regulation. Recent proposals aim at extending this approach to market risks, in particular to foreign exchange risk. The present paper provides a critical analysis of proposals to introduce foreign exchange position limits on a uniform cross-country basis, focusing on their effectiveness and their possible impact on the functioning of both mature and developing foreign exchange markets. Theoretical considerations are underpinned in the paper with descriptions of existing or proposed regulations, in a broad range of both industrial and developing countries. Experiences with the use of foreign exchange position limits in developing countries provide insight into their widespread use for other than prudential purposes, in particular to support exchange rate and exchange control policies.

Abstract:
In this note, we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distribution. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or vanishes asymptotically. We show that if one currency return reaches crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals' distributions exhibit light tails (like, for example, the normal). If, however, the marginal distributions exhibit heavy tails, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well remains strictly positive even in the limit. This result implies that linearity and heavy tails are sufficient conditions for joint or contagious currency crises to happen systematically through fundamentals.

Financial crises, currency market linkages, fundamentals, heavy tails, asymptotic dependence

Abstract:
In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or vanishes asymptotically. We show that if one currency return reaches crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals' distributions exhibit light tails (like e.g. the normal). However, if the marginal distributions exhibit heavy tails, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well remains strictly positive even in the limit. This result implies that linearity and heavy tails are sufficient conditions for joint or contagious currency crises to happen systematically through fundamentals.

Financial crises, currency market linkages, fundamentals, heavy tails, asymptotic dependence

Abstract:
This paper provides a broad empirical examination of the major currencies' roles in international capital markets, with a special emphasis on the first year of the Euro. A contribution is made as to how to measure these roles, both for international financing as well as for international investment. The times series collected for these measures allow for the identification of changes in the role of the Euro during 1999 compared to the aggregate of Euro predecessor currencies, net of intra-Euro area assets/liabilities, before stage 3 of EMU. A number of key factors determining the currency distribution of international portfolio investments, such as relative market liquidity and relative risk characteristics of assets, are also examined empirically. It turns out that for almost all important market segments for which data are available, the Euro immediately became the second most widely used currency for international financing and investment. For the flow of international bond and note issuance it experienced significant growth in 1999 even slightly overtaking the US dollar in the second half of the year. The Euro's international investment role appears more static though, since most of the early external asset supply in Euro is actually absorbed by Euro area residents.

Abstract:
This paper compares four forms of inter-regional financial risk sharing: (i) segmentation, (ii) integration trough the secured interbank market, (ii) integration trough the unsecured interbank market, (iv) integration of retail markets. The secured interbank market is an optimal risk-sharing device when banks report liquidity needs truthfully. It allows diversification without the risk of cross-regional financial contagion. However, free-riding on the liquidity provision in this market restrains the achievable risk-sharing as the number of integrated regions increases. In too large an area this moral hazard problem becomes so severe that either unsecured interbank lending or, ultimately, the penetration of retail markets is preferable. Even though this deeper financial integration entails the risk of contagion it may be beneficial for large economic areas, because it can implement an efficient sharing of idiosyncratic regional shocks. Therefore, the enlargement of a monetary union, for example, extending the common interbank market might increase the benefits of also integrating retail banking markets through cross-border transactions or bank mergers. We discuss these results in the context of the ongoing debate on European financial integration and the removal of bank branching restrictions in the United States during the 1990s, and we derive implications for the relationship between financial integration and financial stability. Last we illustrate the scope for cross-regional risk sharing with data on non-performing loans for the European Union, Switzerland and the United States.

cross border lending, financial contagion, financial integration, interbank market