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Abstract:
In this paper we develop an asset allocation model which allocates assets by maximising expected return subject to the constraint that the expected maximum loss should meet the Value-at-Risk limits set by the risk manager. Similar to the mean-variance approach a performance index like the Sharpe index is constructed. Furthermore it is shown that the model nests the mean-variance approach in case of normally distributed expected returns. We provide an empirical analysis using two assets: US stocks and bonds. The results highlight the influence of non-normal characteristics of the expected return distribution on the optimal asset allocation.

Abstract:
The comparatively poor performance of traditional asset classes in recent years has driven the search for greater returns via alternative asset classes. The desire to reap higher risk adjusted returns from diversification into assets which offer low and even negative correlation with equities and bonds is extremely desirable. There has been a huge growth in the traditional alternative investments such as real estate, commodity futures, private equity and hedge fund investments.

Additionally, a number of funds specialising in art have recently emerged. These also appear to offer a highly beneficial diversification strategy with extremely low correlation with traditional asset classes. It is important for investors to understand the risk and return characteristics of this new alternative asset class.

In this paper we take a closer look at art as an alternative asset, and look specifically at how this new alternative asset is expected to perform, also during bear markets, when the benefits of diversification are most needed. We look at the risk and return characteristics of art using art market indices, and the prospects for portfolio diversification in the art market using a variety of data across art market sectors, including the Old Master, European Impressionist, Modern and Contemporary art markets. Due to the low correlation of art with other asset classes, we find opportunities for portfolio diversification across art markets and across asset classes. The results hold, even allowing for the high transaction costs, which are encountered when trading art, when spread over a longer time horizon.

Alternative Investments, Portfolio Allocation, Risk management

Abstract:
The poor performance of traditional asset classes in recent years has driven the search for greater investment into alternative asset classes. The desire to reap higher risk adjusted returns from diversification into assets which offer low and even negative correlation with equities and bonds are extremely desirable. There has been a huge growth in the traditional alternative investments: commodity and hedge fund investments. A number of funds specialising in Art have recently emerged, which also appear to offer a highly beneficial diversification strategy with extremely low correlation with traditional asset classes. But it is important for investors to understand the risk and return characteristics of this new 'alternative' asset class. In this paper we take a closer look at Art as an alternative asset, and look specifically at how this new alternative asset is expected to perform during bear markets, in times when benefits to diversification are most needed.

Alternative Asset Class, Art Investment, Portfolio Management, Risk Management, Conditional Correlation

Abstract:
This research is the first to examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model using a large sample of data on mergers and acquisitions in the European banking industry. We find empirical support for a model that estimates the value of an option to wait in accepting an initial tender offer. Market prices reflect a premium for the option to wait to accept an offer that has a mean value of 14% for a sample of 100 mergers or acquisitions in the European banking industry. We provide evidence that the size of the acquiring banks and the debt to equity ratio of the target bank play a significant role in determining the premium paid in the acquisition process. Our findings have important implications for future M&A behavior in the banking industry.

Option-pricing model, Mergers and acquisitions, European banking industry

Abstract:
It is widely known that the small but looming possibility of default renders the expected return distribution for financial products containing credit risk to be highly skewed and fat tailed. In this paper, we apply recent techniques developed for incorporating the additional risk faced by changes in swap spreads. Using data from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan, we find that the risk faced from large spread widenings and tightenings is grossly underestimated. Estimation of swap spread risk is dramatically improved when the severity of the fat tails is measured and incorporated into current estimation techniques.

Market risk, value-at-risk, extreme value theory, parametric distributions, backtesting

Abstract:
The increasing portion of individuals' wealth in art sets the stage for art-backed lending services. Considering widely used credit default swaps, the paper applies the structure to art-backed loans and develops an extensive pricing model for the derivatives contract, explicitly taking art market characteristics into account. Using a CDS pricing methodology sheds light on current lending spreads and provides a risk management tool for art-backed lending institutions. At the same time, an introduced art credit default swap would offer an ability to transfer the lender's risk with respect to the art price. The results suggest that credit risk accounts for at most 50% of current art-backed lending spreads.

Art Market, Credit Default Swaps, Risk Management

Abstract:
It is widely known that the small but looming possibility of defaultrenders the expected return distribution for financial productscontaining credit risk to be highly skewed and fat tailed. In thispaper we apply recent techniques developed for incorporating theadditional risk faced by changes in swap spreads. Using data from theUS, UK, Germany, and Japan, we find that the risk faced from largespread widenings and tightenings is grossly underestimated. Estimationof swap spread risk is dramatically improved when the severity of thefat tails is measured and incorporated into current estimationtechniques.

Market Risk, value-at-risk, extreme Value theory, parametric distributions, backtesting

Abstract:
Deviations from normality in financial return series have led to the development of alternative portfolio selection models. One such model is the downside risk model, whereby the investor maximizes his return given a downside risk constraint. In this paper we empirically observe the international equity allocation for the downside risk investor using 9 international markets' returns over the last 34 years. Investors may think globally, but instead act locally, due to greater downside risk. The results provide an alternative view of the home bias phenomenon, documented in international financial markets.

Asset Pricing, Home Bias, Downside Risk, Prospect Theory

Abstract:
An increase in correlation during turbulent market conditions implies a reduction in the benefits arising from portfolio diversification. Unfortunately, it is exactly then that these benefits are most needed. We investigate the robustness of recent empirical results that indicate correlation breakdown by deriving theoretical truncated and exceedance correlations using alternative distributional assumptions. Analytical results show that the empirical meltdown in diversification could be a result of assuming conditional normally distributed returns. When assuming a popular alternative distribution model - the bivariate Student-t distribution - we find significantly less support for diversification meltdown.

Exceedance correlation, Truncated correlation, Bivariate Student-t correlation

Abstract:
This paper empirically models a number of emotional assets in the optimal investment decision. Using the spanning techniques we analyze how these emotional assets add to the risk-return profile of investors. We find highly significant results for art, wine and books as a significant allocation into the emotional asset sector. Our findings firstly substantiate the current allocation of HNWI in the luxury goods sector, and secondly give rise to substantive evidence for investors choosing to maximize risk and return whilst also being prepared to give up some financial return in some sectors for emotive reasons. This gives insightful evidence that investors tend to integrate both personal and societal values into the portfolio management process and moreover helps us to separate the emotional and investment value when investing into assets in general.

Portfolio Management, Asset pricing, Consumption and Investment decisions

Abstract:
100 years ago this year, Irving Fisher adhered to 'price movements being imperfectly foreseen' resulting in short term deviations from UIP, which in the longer term are averaged away. In this paper, we first review Irving Fisher's seminal work on UIP and on the closely related equation linking interest rates and inflation relation. Like Fisher a century ago, we find that the failures of UIP are tied in with individual episodes in which errors surrounding exchange-rate expectations have been persistent but in the end transitory. The main contribution from our paper to the literature is by observing the UIP parity condition alongside PPP we are able to observe a common component in deviations in the parity conditions, which is highly correlated. To disentangle whether the common component is the risk premia or the size of errors made in forecasting exchange rates we introduce a third parity condition, the real interest equality. We find considerable commonality in deviations from UIP and PPP suggesting that these deviations are both driven by a common factor as the forecasting errors in exchange rates. Using a dynamic latent factor model we find that deviations from UIP are almost completely due to forecasting errors in exchange rates. Using recent developments in econometric techniques we are therefore able to show that Irving Fisher's conjecture to the source of what has become known as the UIP puzzle was in fact correct. We find that our results of expectational errors being the root of the UIP puzzle, rather than any large time variation in the size of the risk premia our extremely robust across countries and using alternative specifications.

UIP, Irving Fisher, Expectations formation, Dynamic Latent Factor Model, Small-sample problems

Abstract:
In this paper, we first review Irving Fisher's seminal work on UIP and on the closely related equation linking interest rates and inflation relation. We go on to re-examine the performance of UIP since the advent of floating exchange rates in the 1970s. Like Fisher a century ago, we find that the failures of UIP are tied in with individual episodes in which errors surrounding exchange-rate expectations have been persistent but in the end transitory. We see evidence of this behavior both in the changed coefficients estimates from rolling regressions. We also find considerable commonality in deviations from UIP and PPP suggesting that these deviations are both driven by a common factor as the forecasting errors in exchange rates. Using a dynamic latent factor model we find that deviations from UIP are almost completely due to forecasting errors in exchange rates. Once the variation in the size of the forecasting errors is taken into account we find empirical support of a unitary value for the implied beta in the Fama regression. Using a number of countries we find unanimous support that deviations from UIP are driven by errors made in forecasting exchange rates, a result which we attribute to Irving Fisher who first mentioned this a century to date.

UIP, Irving Fisher, Expectations formation, small-sample problems

Abstract:
A number of studies have provided evidence of increased correlation in global financial market returns during bear markets. Others, however, have shown that some of this evidence may have been biased. We derive an alternative estimator for implied correlation based on portfolio downside risk measures that does not suffer from this bias. These unbiased quantile correlation estimates are directly applicable to portfolio optimization and to risk management techniques in general. This simple and practical approach captures the increasing correlation in extreme market conditions while providing a pragmatic approach to understanding correlation structure in multivariate return distributions. Based on data for international equity markets we find evidence of significant increased correlation in extreme returns in international equity markets. This proves the importance of providing a tail adjusted mean-variance covariance matrix.

International equity markets, correlation, extreme returns, downside risk

Abstract:
We examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model using a large sample of data on mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. banking sector. We provide estimates for the option value that the target bank has in waiting for a higher bid instead of accepting an initial tender offer. We find empirical support for a model that estimates the value of an option to wait in accepting an initial tender offer. Market prices reflect a premium for the option to wait to accept an offer that has a mean value of almost 12.5% for a sample of 424 mergers and acquisitions between 1997 and 2005 in the U.S. banking industry. Regression analysis reveals that the option price is related to both the price to book market and the free cash flow of target banks. We conclude that it is certainly in the shareholders best interest if subsequent offers are awaited.

Option-pricing model, Mergers and acquisitions, U.S. banking industry

Abstract:
We review Irving Fisher's seminal work on UIP and on the closely related equation linking interest rates and inflation. Like Fisher, we find that the failures of UIP are connected to individual episodes in which errors surrounding exchange rate expectations are persistent, but eventually transitory. We find considerable commonality in deviations from UIP and PPP, suggesting that both of these deviations are driven by a common factor. Using a dynamic latent factor model, we find that deviations from UIP are almost entirely due to expectational errors in exchange rates, rather than attributable to the risk premium; a result consistent with those reported by Fisher a century ago.

Irving Fisher, UIP, PPP, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates

Abstract:
This paper proposes an alternative specification for the second stage of the Case-Shiller repeat sales method. This specification is based on serial correlation in the deviations from the mean one-period returns on the underlying individual assets, whereas the original Case-Shiller method assumes that the deviations from mean returns by the underlying individual assets are i.i.d. The methodology proposed in this paper is easy to implement and provides more accurate estimates of the standard errors of returns under serial correlation. The repeat sales methodology is generally used to construct an index of prices or returns for unique, infrequently traded assets such as houses, art, and musical instruments which are likely to be prone to exhibit serial correlation in returns. We demonstrate our methodology on a dataset of art prices and on a dataset of real estate prices from the city of Amsterdam.

art, index, real estate, repeat sales

Abstract:
We review Irving Fisher's seminal work on UIP and on the closely related equation linking interest rates and inflation. Like Fisher, we find that the failures of UIP are connected to individual episodes in which errors surrounding exchange rate expectations are persistent, but eventually transitory. We find considerable commonality in deviations from UIP and PPP, suggesting that both of these deviations are driven by a common factor. Using a dynamic latent factor model, we find that deviations from UIP are almost entirely due to forecasting errors in exchange rates, a result consistent with those reported by Fisher a century ago.

Expectations formation, Irving Fisher, small-sample problems, UIP

Abstract:
A number of studies have provided evidence of increased correlations in global financial market returns during bear markets. Other studies, however, have shown that some of this evidence may be biased. We derive an alternative to previous estimators for implied correlation that is based on measures of portfolio downside risk and that does not suffer from bias. The unbiased quantile correlation estimates are directly applicable to portfolio optimization and to risk management techniques in general. This simple and practical method captures the increasing correlation in extreme market conditions while providing a pragmatic approach to understanding correlation structure in multivariate return distributions. Based on data for international equity markets, we found evidence of significant increased correlation in international equity returns in bear markets. This finding proves the importance of providing a tail-adjusted mean-variance covariance matrix.

Abstract:
Benefits to portfolio diversification depend crucially on correct correlation estimates, hence it is of great importance to both risk management and portfolio optimisation that the exact nature of the correlation structure between international financial assets is understood. Recent discussion on the correlation of international equity returns has focussed on the issue of whether extreme movements in international financial markets are more highly correlated than usual returns. This implies a reduction in the benefits from portfolio diversification since extreme returns are more likely to occur with greater simultaneity. Using the Value-at-Risk methodology we are able to measure the quantile correlation structure implicit in international asset returns in a simple manner without having to resort to fully parametric modelling. We illustrate that the extraction of the quantile covariance structure from this quantile correlation structure is non-trivial. Using daily data on stock market indices for a variety of countries we observe how the correlation and covariance structure changes as we move into the tails of the return distribution. We find for extreme stock market movements the benefits to international diversification are significantly curtailed even after discarding spurious correlation changes.

Abstract:
Using data on Asian equity markets, we observe that during periods of financial turmoil, deviations from the mean-variance framework become more severe, resulting in periods with additional downside risk to investors. Current risk management techniques failing to take this additional downside risk into account will underestimate the true Value-at-Risk with greater severity during periods of financial turnoil. We provide a conditional approach to the Value-at-Risk methodology, known as conditional VaR-x, which to capture the time variation of non-normalities allows for additional tail fatness in the distribution of expected returns. These conditional VaR-x estimates are then compared to those based on the RiskMetricsTM methodology from J.P. Morgan, where we find that the model provides improved forecasts of the Value-at-Risk. We are therefore able to show that our conditional VaR-x estimates are better able to capture the nature of downside risk, particularly crucial in times of financial crises.

Abstract:
To ensure a competent regulatory framework with respect to Value-at-Risk for establishing Bank's capital adequacy requirements, as promoted by the Basle Committee, then the parametrical approach to estimate VaR needs to incorporate fat tails, apparent in the return distributions of financial assets. This paper provides a simple method to obtain accurate parametric VaR measures by including a specific measure for the tail fatness of an asset's return distribution. We provide evidence for the accuracy of these VaR+ estimates by comparing different parametric VaR estimators for bi-weekly returns on US stock and bond returns.