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Abstract:
The apparent predictability of stock prices and the related profitability of investment strategies based on it has generated a great deal of research. Since the late eighties, momentum strategies have attracted a lot of the attention and have been found to be very profitable mainly for US stock market (NYSE and AMEX). A few papers (notable exceptions are Rouwenhorst (1998) and Chan, Hameed and Tong (2000)) have investigated this issue from an international perspective. In line with the recent literature this paper documents the profitability of momentum strategies in countries from the G-7 and explores some conjectures about the links existing between the return of these strategies, the business cycle and industries.

Abstract:
To obtain the maximum benefits from diversification, financial theory suggests that investors should invest internationally because of the larger potential for risk reduction. The question that we raise in this paper is how to select the optimal portfolio of countries? This article synthesizes the major international asset allocation methods based on mean-variance analysis that have been proposed so far in the literature. In particular it compares two types of conditional asset allocation with unconditional methods. The different policies are simulated in a truly ex-ante framework that reflects exactly the uncertainty faced by the portfolio manager at the moment he has to decide upon his future investments. The asset allocation methods are implemented from a Swiss perspective over the period 1988-2001. We find that conditional methods based on direct predictability of expected returns outperform all other asset allocation methods.

portfolio management, international diversification, asset pricing models, conditioning information

Abstract:
This paper examines the determinants of stock returns in a small open economy using an APT framework. The analysis is conducted for the Swiss stock market which has the particularity of including a large proportion of firms that are exposed to foreign economic conditions. Both a statistical and a macroeconomic implementation of the model are performed for the period 1986-2002 with monthly returns on industrial sector indices. The results show that the statistically determined factors yield a better representation of the determinants of stock returns than the macroeconomic variables and that stock returns are influenced by both global and local economic conditions. This suggests that the Swiss stock market is an internationally imperfectly integrated market.

Statistical APT; Macroeconomic APT; Market integration; Risk factors

Abstract:
Have the euro and accompanying measures of financial integration had a discernable impact on the degree of diversification of European investors? This is an empirical question that this paper tries to answer by exploring four alternative avenues. First we focus on the final outcome: If European investors are indeed better diversified, their consumption should be increasingly correlated. Second we check more directly what is known about the composition of Europeans' portfolios. A third perspective focuses on the evolution of returns and prices. If indeed European investors are attempting to exploit new arbitrage opportunities opened up by the euro and European financial integration, then it is likely that these behavioral changes will be matched by significant changes in returns or in the nature of the return generating process. Finally, we explore the possibility that the answer to our question may be better revealed by examining the changes that have taken place in the investment process itself.

Risk sharing, Portfolio holdings, financial market integration, cross sectional dispersion

Abstract:
This paper tests if the use of trading rules based on the crossing of moving averages on Swiss stock prices yields proftable results. The use of bands and oscillators such as the relative strength index or the stochastic indicator is also investigated. These rules are tested on daily returns of the SBC General Index for the period 1969-1997. It is found that the most profitable rule is a double moving average with averages computed on one and five days. With this rule, an annual average return on the SBC Index of 24.30% is obtained compared to a buy-and-hold annual return of 6.25%.

Abstract:
Recent evidence by Fama and French (1992,1996) and others shows that betas and returns are not related empirically. They interpret this as evidence against the validity of the capital asset pricing model and they conclude that the beta is not a good measure of risk. This paper claims that usual tests do not leave much opportunity for beta to appear as a useful variable capable of explaining returns, because tests are often performed in periods where the average realised market excess return is not significantly different from zero. In order to assess the usefulness of beta, an alternative approach that dissociates results obtained in periods where the realised market excess is positive from those where it is negative is proposed. These new tests are then applied to a representative sample of the Swiss stock market over the period 1983-1991. The different results unambiguously support the fact that beta is a good measure of risk, because beta is strongly related to the cross section of realised returns. These results also confirm that there are no arbitrage opportunities on this market.

capital asset pricing model, risk, stock market

Abstract:
This paper investigates the relative influences of industrial and country factors in international stock returns. Until very recently, academic research has consistently found that country factors dominate industrial factors. This result is in contradiction with practitioners beliefs. This paper re-examines this issue by analyzing a sample of more than 4000 stocks quoted in 20 developed countries. We find that on average the country effect still dominates stock returns over the period 1997-2000. This result has to be interpreted with caution though, as an analysis that allows for time-varying relative influences demonstrates the rapidly increasing impact of industry effects in recent times. We find, in particular, that this trend is common to all 20 developed countries considered and not only to those that are member of the European Monetary Union. We interpret this result as evidence of the increasing globalization of international equity markets.

International stock markets, industries, global factors, diversification

Abstract:
This paper studies a unique buyback method allowing firms to reacquire their own shares on a separate trading line where only the firm is allowed to buy shares. This temporary trading platform is opened concurrently with the original trading line on the stock exchange. This share repurchase method is called the Second Trading Line and has been extensively used by Swiss companies since 1997. This type of repurchase is unique for two reasons. First, unlike open market programs, the repurchasing company does not trade under the cover of anonymity. Second, all transactions made by the repurchasing firm are publicly available in real time to every market participant. This is a case of instantaneous disclosure which contrasts sharply with other markets characterized by delayed or no disclosure. Using actual repurchase data from all buybacks implemented through second trading lines, we find that managers exhibit timing ability for the majority of programs. We also document that the daily repurchase decision is statistically associated with short-term price changes. However, we reject the opportunistic repurchase hypothesis and find no evidence that managers exploit their information advantage when reacquiring shares. We also find that repurchases on the second trading line have a beneficial impact on the liquidity of repurchasing firms (i.e., higher trading volumes, smaller bid-ask spreads, and thicker total depths). Exchanges and regulators may consider the second trading line an attractive share reacquisition mechanism because of its transparency and positive liquidity effects.

Share Repurchases, Disclosure Environment, Information Asymmetry, Liquidity

Abstract:
This paper investigates the performance of a global investment strategy that combines diversification and option strategies, in particular the covered call strategy, on the Swiss Exchange over the period 1989-1996. As the return distributions of portfolios including options are possibly non-normal, the mean-variance framework may not be appropriate to assess the relative performance of such portfolios. Stochastic dominance and modified betas are the alternative approaches, robust to departure from normality, used in this paper to compare the performance of portfolios. The results show that the use of option strategies consistently improves the performance of stock portfolios, even in the presence of transaction costs.

Abstract:
This paper investigates the performance of a global investment strategy that combines diversification and option strategies, in particular the covered call strategy, on the Swiss Exchange over the period 1989-1996. As the return distributions of portfolios including options are possibly non-normal, the mean-variance framework may not be appropriate to assess the relative performance of such portfolios. Stochastic dominance and modified betas are the alternative approaches, robust to departure from normality, used in this paper to compare the performance of portfolios. The results show that the use of option strategies consistently improves the performance of stock portfolios, even in the presence of transaction costs.

Covered Call Options, Portfolio Management, Stochastic dominance

Abstract:
This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the dynamics of the implied volatility (or implied standard deviation - ISD) around earnings announcements dates. The volatility implied by option prices can be interpreted as the level of volatility expected by the market over the remaining life of the option. We propose a theoretical framework for the evolution of the ISD that takes into account two well-known features of the instantaneous volatility: volatility clustering and the leverage effect. In this context, the ISD should decrease after an earnings announcement but the post-announcement ISD path depends on the content of the earnings announcement: good news or bad news. An empirical investigation is conducted on the Swiss market over the period 1989-1998.

implied volatility, earnings announcements, leverage effect

Abstract:
This paper investigates the optimal bidding strategy for the initial bidder in takeover contests. In the theoretical model, the initial bidder has the choice between making a low or a high preemptive initial bid. Both types of bids can lead to a competitive auction process among bidders, and both information and bidding costs are included in the analysis. Optimal strategies are specified following the Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium. The model predicts notably that the optimal strategy for the initial bidder is to make a high preemptive initial bid. This strategy deters potential bidders to compete for the same target. The empirical implications of the theoretical model are then examined on US data over the period 1990-1995. Among other results, the relation between the level of bid premiums and the degree of competition is found to be dependent on the type of offer, i.e. hostile or friendly.

Takeovers, Competitive bidding, Bid premium

Abstract:
This paper studies the links existing between the Swiss stock market and the five largest stock markets in the world (USA, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany and France) in terms of return and volatility. We find that conditional heteroskedasticity is present in every market and also that conditional volatility responds asymmetrically to past shocks. In order to properly take account of these phenomena we estimate a series of bivariate asymmetric AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) models to measure the links existing between the Swiss stock market and the five other stock markets. The results indicate that the US market has the strongest influence on the Swiss market in terms of returns and volatility. Links with other markets in terms of returns are relatively weak. The German and British markets strongly influence the volatility of the Swiss market. On the other hand, we find that the Swiss market has a statistically significant but economically weak influence on the foreign markets.

Abstract:
Les rachats d'actions sont autorisés depuis plus de quinze ans en Suisse. Cet article propose une analyse des rachats dans le contexte institutionnel, fiscal et juridique helvétique. Après avoir décrit les principales techniques de rachat à disposition des entreprises et les objectifs visés par une telle opération, ce travail analyse l'effet des rachats sur les ratios financiers et la valeur de l'entreprise dans un cadre théorique classique. Il montre notamment que, contrairement à ce que pensent certains professionnels, un rachat n'augmente pas mécaniquement les ratios financiers mais a plutôt tendance à les faire baisser. Un rachat a généralement aussi un impact négatif sur la valeur de l'entreprise. La dernière partie de cet article se penche sur les pratiques des entreprises suisses en matière de rachats, montrant à cette occasion que les contextes institutionnels et fiscaux joue un rôle prépondérant.

Share repurchases, taxes, EPS increase, institutional framework, Switzerland

Abstract:
Recent research has documented that family-controlled firms are very common around the world. This paper provides new evidence on the accounting and market performance of this type of companies. The empirical investigation is conducted on a market in which family firms are well-established and represent the most widespread form of ownership, namely Switzerland. Using panel data for the period 2003 to 2007 on companies listed on the Swiss exchange, we find evidence that family firms have a 1.19 higher Tobin’s Q and a 3% higher return on assets than non-family firms. A finer analysis reveals that the outperformance depends on the characteristics of the family business. First, we find evidence that family firms in which a second blockholder is present are even more profitable with a 5% higher return on assets and a 1.27 higher Tobin’s Q than non-family firms. In this case not only agency costs between management and shareholders are reduced but also between majority and minority shareholders by limiting private benefit extraction. Second, family firms in which a family is only an investor do not perform better than non-family firms. Only if family members are actively involved in management, as either CEO, Chairman or both do they add value and thus perform significantly better than outsiders. This indicates that family members have superior knowledge on their companies that is lost when they solely hold a financial participation in the firm. Finally, our results also show that these skills are not confined to the founder but are also present in heir-managed family firms. In particular we find that firms with descendant-CEO or founders acting as Chairman have better accounting and market performances.

family firms, ownership structure, corporate governance

Abstract:
The deterring role of the medium of payment in a takeover contest is analyzed from the point of view of the bidder. Cash, debt and equity are considered as alternative mediums of payment, and the bidder equilibrium strategies are specified following the Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium requirements for a signaling game. The model predicts notably that cash offers signal a high-valuing bidder, strongly determined to acquire the target firm. Moreover, cash offers deter competition better than debt or equity offers. The theoretical results are validated with data from the U.K. over 1995-96.

Takeover, Competition, Medium of Payment

Abstract:
The deterring role of the medium of payment in a takeover contest is analyzed from the point of view of the bidder. Cash, debt and equity are considered as alternative mediums of payment, and the bidder equilibrium strategies are specified following the Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium requirements for a signaling game. The model predicts notably that cash offers signal a high-valuing bidder, strongly determined to acquire the target firm. Moreover, cash offers deter competition better than debt or equity offers. The theoretical results are validated with data from the U.K. over 1995-96.

Takeover, competition, medium of payment

Abstract:
To obtain the maximum benefits from diversification, financial theory suggests that investors should invest internationally because of the larger potential for risk reduction. The question that we raise in this paper is how to select the optimal portfolio of countries? This article synthesizes the major international asset allocation methods based on mean-variance analysis that have been proposed so far in the literature. In particular it compares two types of conditional asset allocation with unconditional methods. The different policies are simulated in a truly ex-ante framework that reflects exactly the uncertainty faced by the portfolio manager at the moment he has to decide upon his future investments. The asset allocation methods are implemented from a Swiss perspective over the period 1988-2001. We find that conditional methods based on direct predictability of expected returns outperform all other asset allocation methods.