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Abstract:
The economic analysis of corporate governance is en vogue. In addition to a host of theoretical papers, an increasing number of empirical studies analyze how ownership structure, capital structure, the structure of the board and the market for corporate control influence firm performance. This is not an easy task, and indeed, for reasons explained in this survey, empirical studies on corporate governance have more than the usual share of econometric problems. Aim of this paper is a critical survey of the recent empirical literature on corporate governance - in order to show which methodological lessons can be learned for future empirical research in the field of corporate governance, paying particular attention to German institutions and data availability.

Corporate governance

Abstract:
The economic analysis of corporate governance is in vogue. In addition to a host of theoretical papers, an increasing number of empirical studies analyze how ownership structure, capital structure, board structure, and the market for corporate control influence firm performance. This is not an easy task, and indeed, for reasons explained in this survey, empirical studies on corporate governance have more than the usual share of econometric problems. This paper is a critical survey of the recent empirical literature on corporate governance - to show which methodological lessons can be learned for future empirical research in the field of corporate governance, paying particular attention to German institutions and data availability.

Corporate governance

Abstract:
Germany still has a very generous public pay-as-you-go pension system. It is characterized by early effective retirement ages and very high effective replacement rates. Most workers receive virtually all of their retirement income from this public retirement insurance. Costs are almost 12% of GDP, more than 2.5 times as much as the U.S. Social Security System. The pressures exerted by population aging on this monolithic system, amplified by negative incentive effects, have induced a reform process that began in 1992 and is still ongoing. This paper has two parts. Part A describes the German pension system as it has shaped the labor market from 1972 until today. Part B describes the reform process, which will convert the exemplary and monolithic Bismarckian public insurance system to a complex multi-pillar system. We provide a survey of the main features of the future German retirement system introduced by the so called "Riester Reform" in 2001 and an assessment in how far this last reform step will solve the pressing problems of the German system of old age provision.

Abstract:
Germany still has a very generous public pay-as-you-go pension system. It is characterized by early effective retirement ages and very high effective replacement rates. Most workers receive virtually all of their retirement income from this public retirement insurance. Costs are almost 12 percent of GDP, more than 2.5 times as much as the U.S. Social Security System. The pressures exerted by population aging on this monolithic system, amplified by negative incentive effects, have induced a reform process that began in 1992 and is still ongoing. This process is the topic of this paper. It has two parts. Part A describes the German pension system as it has shaped the labor market until about the year 2000. Part B describes the three staged reform process that will convert the exemplary and monolithic Bismarckian public insurance system after the year 2000 into a complex multipillar system. The paper delivers an assessment in how far these reform steps will solve the pressing problems of a prototypical pay-as-you-go system of old age provision, hopefully with lessons for other countries with similar problems.

Abstract:
This paper describes how German households save and how their saving behavior is linked to public policy, notably pension policy. The analysis is based on a synthetic panel of four cross sections of the German Income and Expenditure Survey ("Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichproben," EVS, 1978, 1983, 1988, and 1993). The paper carefully distinguishes between several saving measures and concepts. It separates discretionary savings from mandatory savings and uses two flow measures: first, the sum of purchases of assets minus the sum of sales of assets and, second, the residual of income minus consumption. Our main finding is a hump-shaped age-saving profile with a high overall saving rate. However, savings remain positive in old age, even for most low-income households. How can we explain what may be termed the "German savings puzzle"? Germany has one of the most generous public pension and health insurance systems in the world, yet private savings are high until old age. We provide a complicated answer that combines historical facts with capital market imperfections and a distinction between the role of discretionary and mandatory savings.

Abstract:
This paper analyses effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed, demographically-determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn, will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order to accommodate these structural changes.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed, demographically-determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn, will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order to accommodate these structural changes.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper examines the generosity of the European welfare state toward the elderly. It shows how various dimensions of the welfare regimes have changed during the past 10 to 15 years and how this evolution is related to the process of economic integration. Dimensions include general generosity toward the elderly and, more specifically, generosity toward early retirement and generosity toward the poor. Using aggregate data (EUROSTAT, OECD) as well as individual data (SHARE, the new Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe), the paper looks at the statistical correlations among those types of system generosity and actual policy outcomes, such as unemployment and poverty rates among the young and the elderly, and the inequality in wealth, income and consumption. While the paper is largely descriptive, it also tries to explain which economic and political forces drive social expenditures for the elderly in the European Union and whether spending for the elderly crowds out spending for the young.

Welfare state, intergenerational redistribution, pension systems

Abstract:
As wives generally are younger than their husbands, and as they also have a higher life expectancy, wives generally have larger incentives to save for old age than their husbands. This paper analyses the household members' attitudes towards saving for old age, and the relation with the household saving and portfolio choice behaviour. Based on a panel of two-person households (e.g. with a husband and a wife) from the Dutch CentER Savings Survey, we find that wives find saving for old age more important than their husbands. In a special high-income subsample we find that for this group the household members find saving for old age equally important. The major determinant of both household members' attitudes is the husband's mandatory pension rights. Both household members' attitude relate to the probability of holding annuity and endowment insurances, while only the husband's attitude relates to the probability of holding stocks. Concerning discretionary household wealth we find evidence for an impact of the husband's attitude, but no evidence for an impact of the wife?s attitude.

Savings, pensions, intra-household behaviour

Abstract:
Global aging will be a major determinant of long run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic and will deeply affect future labor, financial and goods markets. The expected strain on public budgets and especially social security has already received prominent attention, but the aging poses many other economic challenges that threaten productivity and growth if they remain unaddressed.

While aging is global, there are marked differences in the speed and the extent of the aging processes across countries. These differences are likely to generate different growth paths and change the international pecking order, e.g. within the G8 countries. Due to the globalization of labor, financial and goods markets, however, these differential demographic developments will also precipitate trade and factor movements. Exploiting these movements offers large chances during the aging process.

The purpose of this paper is to review the most important economic chances and challenges due to global aging. It summarizes what we know and identifies research areas where it is important to know more.

Abstract:
Population aging is just beginning to hit the industrialized countries in full force, and it will have a tremendous impact on capital markets. In this paper, we argue that the capital market effects of population aging are particularly strong in continental European economies such as Germany, France, and Italy, with their large and ailing pay-as-you-go public pension systems, relatively thin capital markets, and poor capital performance. The younger generations in these countries are quite aware of the need to provide for more retirement income through own private saving, and these effects will be accentuated by fundamental pension reforms that aim at more pre-funding. Population aging changes households' savings behavior and portfolio composition, and much more assets will be invested on the stock market. Capital markets will grow in size, and active institutional investors such as pension funds will become more important in continental European countries. These changes are likely to have beneficial side effects in terms of improved capital efficiency, total factor productivity, and growth. Looking at the effects of population aging on savings behavior and capital markets therefore adds a new dimension to the continuing debate about advantages and disadvantages of pay-as-you-go and fully funded pension systems.

Abstract:
This paper uses the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to investigate the role of pension and social security institutions in shaping the European patterns of work and retirement. We provide evidence on the extent of "unused capacity" in labor force, on pathways to retirement and on the relationship between actual health status and disability take up. We find that institutional differences between countries explain much of the cross-national differences in work and retirement, while differences in health and demographics play only a minor role.

Aging, employment, retirement, health, disability, social security institutions, SHARE

Abstract:
Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these international capital flows, we employ a multi-country overlapping generations model and combine it with long-term demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year horizon. Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries (such as Germany and Italy) to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closed-economy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

aging, capital mobility, pension reform

Abstract:
This paper develops a general multiperiod-multinomial probit model for panel data to estimate the living arrangements of the elderly. The model has the following features:

(a) In each period choices do not necessarily obey the assumption of independence of irrelevant alternatives.

(b) Unobserved person-specific attributes are treated as random effects. These random effects may also be correlated across alternatives.

(c) In addition, unobserved choice-specific utility components may persist over some time, creating an autoregressive and/or heteroscedastic errorstructure.

The model is estimated by simulating the choice probabilities in the likelihood function. We examine several variants of the specification of the correlation structure and investigate the extent the biases created byignoring intertemporal correlations.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper studies the relation between workers' age and their productivity in work teams. We explore a unique data set that combines data on errors occurring in the production process of a large car manufacturer with detailed information on the personal characteristics of workers responsible for the errors. We do not find evidence that productivity declines with age.

Age-Productivity Profiles

Abstract:
This paper describes the German public old age social security program (,Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung') and its incentive effects on retirement decisions. The paper presents the key features of the system and expresses retirement incentives in the form of accrual rates of social security wealth and implicit tax rates on earnings. It summarizes labor market behavior of older persons in Germany during the last 35 years and surveys the empirical literature on the effects of the social security system on retirement in Germany. The paper shows that even after the 1992 reform the German system is actuarially unfair. This generates a substantial redistribution from late to early retirees and creates incentives to early retirement. Indeed, average retirement age is very low in West Germany (about age 59) and even lower in East Germany. This tendency towards early retirement is particularly hurting in times of population aging when the German social security contribution rate is expected to increase dramatically and will substantially exceed the rates in other industrialized countries.

Abstract:
Germans retire early. On the one hand, early retirement is very costly and amplifies the burden which the German public pension system has to carry due to population aging. On the other hand, however, early retirement is also seen as a much appreciated social achievement which increases the well-being especially of those workers who suffer from work-related health problems.

This paper investigates the relation between early retirement and well-being using the GSOEP panel data. The general picture that emerges from our analysis is that early retirement as such seems to be related to subjective well-being, in fact more so than normal retirement. Early retirement most probably is a reaction to a health shock. Individuals are less happy in the year of early retirement than in the years before and after retirement. After retirement, individuals attain their pre-retirement satisfaction levels after a relatively short while. Hence, the early retirement effect on well-being appears to be negative and short-lived rather than positive and long. Whether this is an effect of retirement itself or a psychological adaptation to an underlying shock cannot be identified in our data and remains an open research issue waiting for a more objective measurement of health.

Abstract:
This paper investigates the relation between early retirement and well-being using the GSOEP panel data. The general picture that emerges from our analysis is that early retirement as such seems to be related to subjective well-being, in fact more so than normal retirement. Early retirement most probably is a reaction to a health shock. Individuals are less happy in the year of early retirement than in the years before and after retirement. After retirement, individuals attain their pre-retirement satisfaction levels after a relatively short while. Hence, the early retirement effect on well-being appears to be negative and short-lived rather than positive and long. Whether this is an effect of retirement itself or a psychological adaptation to an underlying shock cannot be identified in our data and remains an open research issue waiting for a more objective measurement of health.

Abstract:
Health, wealth and where one lives are important, if not the three most important material living conditions. There are many mechanisms that suggest that living arrangements and well-being derived from health and economic status are closely related. This paper investigates the joint evolution of the three conditions, using a microeconometric approach similar to what is known as 'vector autoregressions' (VAR) in the macroeconomics literature.

Abstract:
The financing problems beleaguering the public pension system have again shifted the spotlight onto the retirement age. This paper examines the impact of various reform options on the actual retirement choices of older workers. The paper focuses in particular on the long-term implications of the changes implemented in pension legislation since 1992 and the reform options discussed by the German Social Security Reform Commission installed in 2002, the so called R?rup Commission'. Our simulations show that the early-retirement pension adjustment factors introduced by the 1992 pension reform will, in the long term, raise the average effective age of retirement for men by somewhat less than two years. The across-the-board two-year increase in all the relevant age limits proposed by the R?rup Commission' would raise the effective average age of retirement of men by about eight months. If the actuarial adjustment factor is increased from 3.6% to 6% per year, the effective average retirement age rises by almost two years. The effects are considerably weaker for women.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
Germany is an interesting country to study saving among older households since nearly everyone - whether in the middle income bracket or richer - saves substantial amounts in old age. Only households in the lowest quarter of the income distribution spend more between the ages of 60 and 75 than they save. Our paper exploits newly collected data, the first wave of the so-called SAVE panel, specifically collected to understand economic, psychological and sociological determinants of saving. Overall, we find extraordinarily stable savings patterns. More than 40% of German households save regularly a fixed amount. About 25% of German households plan their savings and have a clearly defined savings target in mind. Most of German household saving is in the form of contractual saving, such as saving plans, whole life insurance and building society contracts. This makes the flow of saving rather unresponsive to economic fluctuations, such as income shocks. Most households prefer to cut consumption if ends do not meet. In particular the elderly do not like to use credit cards, and they eschew debt. We suspect large cohort differences and will study them once further waves of the SAVE panel will become available.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding. Third, while the patterns of population aging are similar in most countries, timing and initial conditions differ substantially. Hence, to the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will induce capital flows between countries. All three effects influence the rate of return to capital and interact with the demand for capital in production and with labor supply. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from fast-aging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

Abstract:
Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding. Third, while the patterns of population aging are similar in most countries, timing and initial conditions differ substantially. Hence, to the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will induce capital flows between countries. All three effects influence the rate of return to capital and interact with the demand for capital in production and with labor supply.

In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from fast aging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

aging, pension reform, capital mobility

Abstract:
Incentive effects of pension systems are usually estimated under the assumption that the institutional environment provides a single optimal 'pathway' for retirement. However, many countries provide competing pathways which may include several early retirement options in addition to normal retirement. Moreover, early retirement options often comprise special provisions for disabled and unemployed workers that can be strategically manipulated by the employer and the employee while ultimate eligibility for such provisions is uncertain in advance. This paper shows that ignoring the endogeneity and/or uncertainty in the relevant institutional setting can severely bias the estimates of incentive effects. Ignoring the endogeneity leads to overestimated incentive effects that unduly exaggerate the 'pull' view of early retirement. In turn, when the uncertain option set is specified too generously, incentive effects are underestimated. The paper proposes several estimates to bound the true incentive effects of social security on early retirement, and applies them to the German public pension system.

Abstract:
This paper reports on a set of international comparisons of how the German and the U.S. economies are affected by population aging. The paper's main focus is on the influence of institutional arrangements such as government regulations and subsidies on retirement, savings and housing choices in the two countries. Germany faces a particularly pronounced aging process. Her dependency ratio is already now as large as it will be in the year 2015 in the U.S., and it is predicted to exceed 43 percent at its peak in 2030. In this respect, changes that are occurring in Germany now may be regarded as indicative for changes to come in the United States. Retirement, savings and housing behavior differ quite markedly between Germany and the United States, and I will show that most of these differences are consistent with the incentives applicable to each country.

Abstract:
This paper uses matched data on the elderly and their children to study the provision of time by children to the elderly. It develops a Tobit model as well as a structural model to analyze the determinants of this decision. The main determinants of the amount of time given to parents appear to be the parent's age, reported health, and institutionalization status, and the children's age, health and sex. Older parents, less healthy parents, and non-institutionalized parents receive more time from their children, while younger children, healthier children, and female children provide more time. In contrast to these demographic determinants, economic variables, such as children's wage rate and income levels, appear to play a rather insignificant role in the provision of time. In addition, the evidence does not support the hypothesis that parents purchase time from their children.

Abstract:
Demographic change has differential impacts on the welfare of current and future generations. In a simple closed economy, aging - a relative scarcity of young workers - increases wages, increasing the welfare of the young. At the same time, population aging will reduce rates of return to capital, thereby reducing the welfare of asset holders who are usually older than the population average. In a global world with pension systems, however, these effects are less straightforward, since international capital flows dampen the factor price changes. Moreover, pay-as-you-go pension systems financed by payroll taxes create a wedge between net and gross wages, and their intergenerational redistribution has important additional effects on the welfare of generations. To quantify these effects, we develop a large-scale multi-country overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk. Due to the predicted relative abundance of the factor capital, the rate of return falls between 2005 and 2050 by roughly 90 basis points. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from rapidly ageing regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial, but that trends are reversed when households de-cumulate savings. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young individuals with little assets and currently low labor productivity indeed gain from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to loose because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper uses a new data set to study the choice of living arrangements of some 3000 Massachusetts elderly between 1982 and 1986. The data have a number of unique features; they are longitudinal and combine detailed information on health with information on economic status and family relations. This paper considers the influence on living arrangements of alternative measures of health (subjective versus functional abilities versus diagnosed condition), incomes and marital status of parents, and the number and sexes of children. It also examines the extent to which changes in health and the death of a spouse trigger changes in living arrangements and how rapidly such changes occur.

The main findings of the paper are:

Functional ability indices are very good predictors of living arrangements.

Subjective health reports are poor predictors of living arrangements.

The probability of institutionalization declines rapidly with the income of the elderly.

In the cases of the older old daughters are much more likely than sons to share living quarters.

Living arrangements are fairly stable. When changes in living arrangements occur they are often triggered by changes in health status or the death of a spouse.

When deterioration in health status of the death of a spouse leads to a change in living arrangements, such changes typically occur within a year of the triggering event.

Abstract:
All across Europe, old age labor force participation has declined dramatically during the last decades. This secular trend coincides with population aging. The European social security systems therefore face a double threat: retirees receive pensions for a longer time while there are less workers per retiree to shoulder the financial burden of the pension systems.

This paper shows that a significant part of this problem is homemade: most European pension systems provide strong incentives to retire early. The correlation between the force of these incentives with old age labor force participation is strongly negative. The paper provides qualitative and econometric evidence for the strength of the incentive effects on old age labor supply across Europe and for the German public pension program.

Abstract:
Disability insurance - the insurance against the loss of the ability to work - is a substantial part of social security expenditures in many countries. The enrolment rates in disability insurance vary strikingly across European countries and the US. This paper investigates the extent of, and the causes for, this variation, using data from SHARE, ELSA and HRS.

We show that even after controlling for differences in the demographic structure and health status these differences remain. In turn, indicators of disability insurance generosity explain 75% of the cross-national variation. We conclude that country-specific disability insurance rules are a prime candidate to explain the observed cross-country variation in disability insurance enrolment.

Abstract:
Population ageing and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping-generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from rapidly ageing regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial, but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

Abstract:
This paper studies the influence of education on labor and geographic mobility. Mobility is an important equilibrating factor in a changing economy. Therefore, any factor that induces mobility also alleviates the symptoms of disequilibrium, and any factor that inhibits mobility also impedes economic adjustments. Does the high level of education in modern industrial societies help or hurt economic transitions? Economic theory provides conflicting arguments. On the one side, the theory of firm-specific capital predicts that education increases job duration and therefore inhibits job mobility (Jovanovic, 1979). On the other side, education should increase mobility in markets with imperfect information because better educated persons should be better able to collect and process information, reducing search and transactions costs. In a PSID subsample consisting of 736 individuals, we observed labor and geographic mobility from 1968 to 1982 and related it to the level of education at 1968. It appears that labor and geographic mobility are governed by quite different behavioral mechanism. Education strongly affects future labor and geographic mobility, but in opposite ways. A high level of education inhibits labor mobility, but increases geographic mobility.

Abstract:
For the elderly, housing choices are more complex than merely the choice of housing expenditure, dwelling size, and tenure. They also include the choice among alternative living arrangements such as living in one household with their adult children or sharing accommodations with other related or unrelated elderly. We first contrast living arrangements of elderly Americans with the population under age 65 and describe the changes from 1974 to 1983. We detect a growing discrepancy in household formation/dissolution patterns between the elderly and the younger population: after a steady decline in the 1970s, we observe a rapid increase in the rate of "doubled-up" young families in the beginning of the 1980s. No such development can be found among elderly Americans. Instead, the proportion of elderly living in- dependently steadily increases from 1974 to 1983. To explain this discrepancy, we estimate a multinomial choice model among living independently and six categories of alternative living arrangements. The main finding is the predominance of demographic determinants as opposed to economic variables. The difference in income growth between the young and the elderly -- real income declined for the young but increased for the elderly -- can explain only part of the discrepancy in household dissolution decisions. The remaining discrepancy must be attributed to inertia and low mobility rates.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
Retrospective data play an important role in social science research. This paper provides an overview of problems arising during the process and also presents the solutions found in the field. It also shows details of the collection of retrospective data in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) in the SHARELIFE project.

Abstract:
In response to population aging, pay-as-you-go pensions are being reduced in almost all developed countries. In many countries, governments aim to fill the resulting gap with subsidized private pensions. This paper exploits the recent German pension reform to shed new light on the uptake of voluntary, but heavily subsidized private pension schemes. Specifically, we investigate how the uptake of the recently introduced “Riester pensions” depends on state-provided saving incentives, and how well the targeting to families and low-income households works in practice.

We show that, after a slow start, private pension plans took off very quickly. While saving incentives were effective in reaching parents, they were less successful in attracting low-income earners, although Riester pensions exhibit a more equal pattern by income than occupational pensions and unsubsidized private pension plans.

We also provide circumstantial evidence on displacement effects between saving for old-age provision and other purposes. Households who plan to purchase housing are less likely to have a Riester pension. The same holds for households who attach high importance to a bequest motive. Occupational pensions and other forms of private pensions, however, act as complements rather than as substitutes.

Abstract:
This study evaluates the positive and negative features of the German public pension system and discusses three reasons for its increasing perceived and real difficulties: maturation, negative incentive effects, and the problems of demographic change. The German system in its current form may be able to limp through the coming decades but will cease to be the exemplary Bismarckian machine that has created generous retirement incomes at reasonable tax rates. Current policy proposals are insufficient and a few but incisive design changes and some degree of prefunding could rescue the many positive aspects of the German retirement insurance system.