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Abstract:
We examine whether market and operating performance affect corporate financing behavior because they are related to target leverage. Our focus on firms that issue both debt and equity enhances our ability to draw inferences. Consistent with dynamic tradeoff theories, dual issuers offset the deviation from the target resulting from accumulation of earnings and losses. Our results also imply that high market-to-book firms have low target debt ratios. On the other hand, consistent with market timing, high stock returns increase the probability of equity issuance, but have no effect on target leverage.

Target leverage, target capital structure, debt issues, equity issues

Abstract:
We examine the relation between expected future volatility (options' implied volatility) and the cross-section of expected returns. A trading strategy buying stocks in the highest implied volatility quintile and shorting stocks in the lowest implied volatility quintile generates insignificant returns. A similar strategy using one-month lagged realized volatility generates significantly negative returns. To investigate the differences and interactions between alternative measures of total risk, we estimate three principal components based on realized volatility, call implied and put implied volatility. Long-short trading strategies generate significant returns only for the second and the third principal components. We find that the second principal component is related to the realized-implied volatility spread which can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. We find that the third principal component is related to the call-put implied volatility spread that reflects future price increase of the underlying stock.

expected returns, implied volatility, realized volatility, volatility spread

Abstract:
This paper examines the returns to investment strategies based on the interactions between value-to-market indicators and corporate financing transactions that increase or decrease the firm's outstanding equity, i.e., equity issues and repurchases. Portfolio-level analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate that the well-documented contrarian profits soar when value stocks which repurchase shares (value repurchasers) and growth stocks which issue shares (growth issuers) are considered. The results also show that value-to-market ratios cannot capture the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns when value issuers and growth repurchasers are considered. Based on various risk measures, we find that value repurchasers are not riskier than growth issuers. Furthermore, value repurchasers (growth issuers) experience the highest increase (decrease) in future growth rates. Our findings are consistent with the misvaluation explanation for the superior returns of value stocks.

Share issues, share repurchases, contrarian investment, expected stock returns, value-to-market ratios

Abstract:
Investment cash flow sensitivity is associated with both undervestment when cash flows are low and overinvestment when cash flows are high. The accessibility of external capital is positively correlated with cash flows, intensifying investment cash flow sensitivity. Managers actively counteract the variations in internal and external liquidity by accumulating working capital when liquidity is high and draining it when liquidity is low. These results imply that cash flow sensitive firms face financial constraints, which are binding in low cash flow years. While financial constraints have an economically significant impact on investment timing, cash flow sensitive firms alleviate their effects and, actually, overinvest, on aggregate.

Investment cash flow sensitivity, financial constraints, investment, managerial overconfidence

Abstract:
Contrary to Baker and Wurgler (2002), we find that the importance of historical average market-to-book in leverage regressions is not due to past equity market timing. We find that only equity issues may be timed to conditions in equity market, but they do not have significant long-lasting effects on capital structure. Other transactions exhibit timing patterns that are unlikely to induce a negative relation between market-to-book and leverage. We also find that historical average market-to-book has a significant effect on current financing and investment decisions, implying that it contains information about growth opportunities not captured by current market-to-book.

equity market timing, equity issues, capital structure, leverage

Abstract:
The paper examines whether security issues and repurchases adjust the capital structure toward the target. The time-series patterns of debt ratios imply that only debt reductions are initiated to offset the accumulated deviation from target leverage. Debt issues, equity issues, and equity repurchases do not offset the deviation from the target. The importance of target leverage in earlier debt-equity choice studies is driven by the sub-sample of equity issues that are accompanied by debt reductions. The timing of equity transactions is driven by market conditions. Firms issuing or repurchasing equity can pursue market-timing strategies because their target debt ratios are low and because equity transactions induce only small deviations from these targets.

leverage, target leverage, capital structure, equity issues, equity repurchases, debt issues, debt reductions

Abstract:
Credit ratings can be viewed as a summary statistic that captures various elements of a firm’s capital structure. They incorporate a firm’s debt ratio, the maturity and priority structure of its debt, as well as the volatility of its cash flows. However, regressions of credit ratings on firm characteristics provide inferences that are not always consistent with the interpretations of extant regressions that include various debt ratios as independent variables. In particular, we find that coefficients of variables that have been viewed as proxies for the uniqueness and the extent that assets can be redeployed, e.g., R&D expenses and asset tangibility, have different effects in the credit rating regressions than in the debt ratio regressions. In addition, we find that after controlling for whether or not firms have debt ratings, the extant evidence of a positive relation between debt ratios and size is reversed. Finally, using regression-based proxies for target ratings and debt ratios, we find that deviations from rating targets as well as debt ratio targets influence subsequent corporate finance choices. When observed ratings are below (above) the target, firms tend to make security issuance and repurchase decisions that reduce (increase) leverage. In addition, firms are more likely to decrease (increase) dividend payouts when they have below (above) target ratings and make more (fewer) acquisitions when they have above (below) target ratings.

credit rating, leverage, capital structure, target capital structure, tradeoff theory

Abstract:
Recent efforts of regulators have helped neutralize analysts’ conflict of interest. Analysts tended to make overly optimistic earnings forecasts prior to Regulation FD and the Global Analyst Research Settlement. Regulation FD made analysts less dependent on insider information and, thereby, diminished analysts’ motives to inflate their forecasts. The impact of Regulation FD is more apparent for firms with less informational transparency. The Global Settlement had an even bigger impact on analyst behavior. After the Global Settlement, the mean forecast bias declined significantly, whereas the median forecast bias essentially disappeared. These results are not limited to 12 banks covered by the Global Settlement, but are similar for all analysts.

Analyst forecasts, Bias, Optimism, Regulations, Conflicts of interest, Regulation FD, Global Settlement

Abstract:
Risk-shifting occurs when creditors or guarantors are exposed to loss without receiving adequate compensation. This paper seeks to measure and compare how well authorities in 56 countries controlled bank risk shifting during the 1990s. Although significant risk shifting occurs on average, substantial variation exists in the effectiveness of risk control across countries. We find that the tendency for explicit deposit insurance to exacerbate risk shifting is tempered by incorporating loss-control features such as risk-sensitive premiums, coverage limits, and coinsurance. Introducing explicit deposit insurance has had adverse effects in environments that are low in political and economic freedom and high in corruption.

deposit insurance, risk shifting

Abstract:
The estimates of the speed of adjustment to target leverage tend to be significant but low. One interpretation for the slow adjustment is that firms fully adjust to target only infrequently, when the benefits of adjustment exceed its costs. Using both ex-ante and ex-post information to identify situations when the adjustment should be full, we find no evidence of full adjustment. We find that adjustments to target are rarely full, with many firms adjusting beyond or away from the target. The results imply that firms may have target ranges but no unique target debt ratios to which they ever want to fully adjust. One implication of this is that empirical analyses, such as partial adjustment regressions, that rely on the existence of a well-defined target debt ratio may be ill-suited for quantifying the importance of dynamic tradeoff behavior vis-a-vis alternative theories.

target capital structure, target leverage, target adjustment, partial adjustment, speed of adjustment

Abstract:
Higher first-year post-issue returns are associated with a significantly higher probability of follow-on equity issuance over the next five years. This result holds when we control for pre-issue returns and other factors known to affect the probability of equity issuance. The result is most consistent with the market feedback hypothesis that a high post-issue return encourages managers to increase the firm's investment because it implies that, in the market's view, the marginal return to the project is high.

seasoned equity offering, equity issue, market timing, market feedback

Abstract:
In this paper we explore and find support for IPOs motivated by subsequent acquisition activity. Over a third of newly public firms enter the market for corporate control as acquirers within three years of the IPO. We find that the role of an IPO in facilitating subsequent acquisitions is twofold. Newly-public firms benefit from the cash funding provided by the IPO, subsequent access to public financing and publicly traded stock, which facilitates stock-based acquisitions. IPO firms also benefit from obtaining public valuations. We find that these firms take advantage of high-post IPO stock values in making stock-based acquisitions at favorable terms and obtain market feedback.

IPO, merger, market timing, market feedback

Abstract:
We test the pecking order theory by examining how firms finance maturing long-term debt. This allows us to resolve the issues of debt capacity and endogeneity of financing deficit, to examine the role of internal financing, and to generate evidence regarding the order in which different sources of financing are used. We find that firms use internal funds before they issue new debt to refinance maturing long-term debt. Firms with more cash on hand are less likely to issue new debt to refinance. On average, each marginal dollar of maturing long-term debt is fully financed with new debt issuance.

capital structure, pecking order theory, corporate financing, debt financing, maturing debt

Abstract:
We examine the spillover effects of the Global Analyst Research Settlement on analysts’ earnings forecasts in forty developed and emerging markets. Prior to the Global Settlement, analysts around the world generally make overly optimistic forecasts. The forecast bias tends to be higher in countries with less investor protection. The forecast bias declines and practically disappears after the Global Settlement. This spillover effect is stronger for countries with lower investor protection. The spillover effect is also stronger for countries with more significant presence by the analysts of the twelve banks directly involved in the Global Settlement.

analyst regulation, investor protection, cross-country spillover, analyst forecast bias, analyst conflicts of interest

Abstract:
This paper investigates the risk versus mispricing explanation of superior returns to contrarian strategies using the interactions between value-to-market indicators and corporate financing transactions that increase or decrease a firm's outstanding equity. Portfolio-level analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate that the well-documented contrarian profits soar when value stocks which repurchase shares (value repurchasers) and growth stocks which issue shares (growth issuers) are considered. Various risk measures indicate that value repurchasers are not riskier than growth issuers. Furthermore, time-series of realized growth rates, analysts' long-term growth estimates, and sensitivity of portfolio returns to investor sentiment support the misvaluation explanation.

Abstract:
This paper investigates whether realized and implied volatilities of individual stocks can predict the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. Although the levels of volatilities from the physical and risk-neutral distributions cannot predict future returns, there is a significant relation between volatility spreads and expected stock returns. Portfolio level analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a negative and significant relation between expected returns and the realized-implied volatility spread that can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. The results also provide evidence for a significantly positive link between expected returns and the call-put options’ implied volatility spread that can be considered as a proxy for jump risk. The parameter estimates from the VAR-bivariate- GARCH model indicate significant information flow from individual equity options to individual stocks, implying informed trading in options by investors with private information.

realized volatility, implied volatility, volatility risk, jump risk, stock returns

Abstract:
Investment bankers focus on narrow, industry-based peer groups for individual stock valuation. And some market-neutral equity hedge fund managers restrict their portfolios to be sector-neutral as well. Yet, academic research into contrarian strategy investment performance has typically invoked full universe valuation and ignored industry effects. Here, we find in favor of the bankers’ and hedge fund managers’ approach. Industry effects matter. Narrow industry-based peer groups improve stock valuation precision for three key valuation ratios. While our analysis of the dynamics of these ratios indicates substantial inertia in relative value rankings, we find that average returns to industry-based contrarian portfolio strategies are positive, statistically significant, and persistent. And over a sample that extends through the “new economy/old economy” and boom/bust period of the late 1990s, contrarian strategies were particularly profitable for NASDAQ-listed stocks. Most importantly, using our full sample of stocks, we show that an industry-neutral strategy is far superior to an industry-exposed, full universe strategy in Sharpe ratio terms over every horizon for each valuation ratio. Thus, contrarian strategy portfolio performance is significantly improved in risk-adjusted terms when implemented in its industry-neutral hedging form.

Abstract:
Mispriced and misadministered deposit insurance imparts risk-shifting incentives to U.S. banks. Regulators are expected to monitor and discipline increases in bank risk exposure that would transfer wealth from the FDIC to bank stockholders. This paper assesses the success regulators had in controlling risk-shifting by U.S. banks during 1985-1994. In contrast to single-equation estimates developed from the option model by others, our simultaneous-equation evidence indicates that regulators failed to prevent large U.S. banks from shifting risk to the FDIC. Moreover, at the margin, banks that are undercapitalized shifted risk more effectively than other sample banks.

Abstract:
Risk-shifting occurs when creditors or guarantors are exposed to loss without receiving adequate compensation. This paper seeks to measure and compare how well authorities in 56 countries controlled bank risk shifting during the 1990s. Although significant risk shifting occurs on average, substantial variation exists in the effectiveness of risk control across countries. We find that the tendency for explicit deposit insurance to exacerbate risk shifting is tempered by incorporating loss-control features such as risk-sensitive premiums, coverage limits, and coinsurance. Introducing explicit deposit insurance has had adverse effects in environments that are low in political and economic freedom and high in corruption.

Abstract:
Simulation experiments show that both partial adjustment and debt-equity choice models can generate spuriously significant estimates that are consistent with the hypothesis that firms have target debt ratios to which they periodically adjust. Regressions relying on full-sample fixed effects models of target leverage, in particular, produce results severely biased in favor of the target adjustment hypothesis. Various target proxies and modifications to the standard methodologies are examined to identify partial-adjustment and debt-equity choice models that have power to reject the target adjustment hypothesis. The resulting estimates of the speed of adjustment are in the range of five-thirteen percent per year.

capital structure, target debt ratio, target leverage, target adjustment, partial adjustment

Abstract:
Credit ratings can be viewed as a summary statistic that captures various elements of a firm’s capital structure. They incorporate a firm’s debt ratio, the maturity and priority structure of its debt, as well as the volatility of its cash flows. However, regressions of credit ratings on firm characteristics provide inferences that are not always consistent with the interpretations of extant regressions that include various debt ratios as independent variables. In particular, we find that coefficients of variables that have been viewed as proxies for the uniqueness and the extent that assets can be redeployed, e.g., R&D expenses and asset tangibility, have different effects in the credit rating regressions than in the debt ratio regressions. In addition, we find that after controlling for whether or not firms have debt ratings, the extant evidence of a positive relation between debt ratios and size is reversed. Finally, using regression-based proxies for target ratings and debt ratios, we find that deviations from rating targets as well as debt ratio targets influence subsequent corporate finance choices. When observed ratings are below (above) the target, firms tend to make security issuance and repurchase decisions that reduce (increase) leverage. In addition, firms are more likely to decrease (increase) dividend payouts when they have below (above) target ratings and make more (fewer) acquisitions when they have above (below) target ratings.

credit rating, capital structure, target capital structure, tradeoff theory, managerial discretion, governance

Abstract:
Investment cash flow sensitivity is associated with both underinvestment when cash flows are low and overinvestment when cash flows are high. The accessibility of external capital is positively correlated with cash flows, intensifying investment cash flow sensitivity. Managers actively counteract the variations in internal and external liquidity by accumulating working capital when liquidity is high and draining it when liquidity is low. These results imply that cash flow sensitive firms face financial constraints, which are binding in low cash flow years. Traditional indicators of financial constraints, such as size and dividend payout, successfully distinguish firms that may potentially face constraints, but are less successful in distinguishing between periods of tight and relaxed constraints. These periods are much more clearly separated by the KZ index, which, on the other hand, is less successful in identifying firms that are likely to face liquidity constraints.