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Abstract:
This paper explores the credibility of exchange rate arrangements for the five African Portuguese-speaking (PALOP) countries. Our working hypothesis is that credibility necessarily implies low mean exchange market pressure (EMP), low EMP conditional volatility and low-severity EMP crises. In addition, economic fundamentals must account for EMP dynamics. We also seek evidence of a risk-return relationship for mean EMP and of "bad news" (negative shocks) having a greater impact on EMP volatility than "good news" (positive shocks). Using our econometric models, we are able to rank PALOP countries' conditional volatility in ordinal terms. Our main conclusion is that countries with currency pegs, such as Guinea-Bissau (GB) and Cape Verde (CV), clearly have lower volatility when compared to those with managed floats and are therefore more credible.

Moreover, EMP crises episodes under pegs are much less severe. We find that economic fundamentals correctly account for mean EMP in all countries and that the risk-return relationship is much more favourable for investors under currency pegs, as the increase in volatility is lower for the same rate of return. The exception to this finding is Mozambique (MOZ), which apparently has a risk-return profile akin to that enjoyed by countries with pegs. A plausible reason is that MOZ has the only managed float in our sample implementing monetary and exchange rate policy within the confines of an IMF framework, which establishes floors for international reserves and ceilings for the central bank's net domestic assets. This intuition needs to be tested, however. EMP conditional volatility is generally driven by changes in domestic credit (lowers it) and foreign reserve changes (raises it). The first effect is more pronounced under currency pegs, but also under MOZ's managed float. "Bad news" increases volatility more that "good news" only in the case of CV's currency peg, which we take to be another sign of its credibility. A few striking cross-country comparisons also emerge in our analysis. Among countries with managed floats, we find that Angola (ANG) has the most severe EMP crises whilst MOZ has the least severe. São Tomé & Princípe (STP), meanwhile, lies between these two extremes but its EMP crises behaviour is clearly much closer to that of MOZ. STP's credibility may also be improving since its volatility has declined as of 2002 and its level is now much closer to that of MOZ, whose managed float has lowest volatility of such arrangements.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the design of structural policies by relating second-best results and the complementarity of reforms. It computes a complementarity index based on structural reform indicators compiled by the EBRD for transition countries, assuming that the run-up to EU integration corresponds to a nearly complete policy cycle. Using econometric panel estimates, the level of reforms and changes in their complementarity are found to be positively related to output growth, corrected for endogeneity, and given initial conditions and the extent of macroeconomic stabilisation.

Second-best, Complementarity, structural reforms, reform

Abstract:
In this study, we assess the credibility of the currency board arrangement (CBA) of the Macau Special Administrative Region by studying the relationship between exchange market pressure (EMP) and the anchors of a rule-based CBA, namely, interest rate arbitrage, exchange rate arbitrage and economic discipline. A pure CBA signals its credibility by allowing the first two anchors to function automatically and by pursuing sound fiscal policies. The analysis' results suggest that Macau's CBA has been characterised by a state of low volatility since late 1992, with the brief exception of the East Asian financial crisis period. The paper's main finding is that fiscal fundamentals seem to have a more pronounced role in reducing EMP's variability during periods of low volatility whilst interest rate arbitrage is more important in periods of high volatility. We conclude that Macau's CBA is credible at present as reflected in the low frequency of observed EMP, in the narrowing of Macau's interest rate differential vis-à-vis U.S. interest rates and in Macau's substantial fiscal reserves.

Abstract:
Globalization, governance and economic performance affect each other in very complex mutual relationships. In this Paper, we establish a clear and well-circumscribed hypothesis: 'Is there an effect of globalization on governance?' To test this hypothesis or, even more specifically, to test how openness can affect the quality of domestic institutions, we survey available theoretical explanations of causal relationships between globalization and governance. Microeconomic theory helps us identify trade policy, competition by foreign producers and international investors, and openness-related differences in institution building costs and benefits, as three major transmission mechanisms through which openness affects a country's corruption levels. Examining a large sample of countries covering a 20-year long period, we found robust empirical support for the fact that increases in import openness do indeed cause reductions in corruption, a crucial aspect of governance. The magnitude of the effect is also quite strong. After controlling for many cross-country differences, openness' influence on corruption is close to one third of that exercised by the level of development. Some cautious policy conclusions are derived.

Corruption, globalisation, governance, international trade

Abstract:
This paper studies the credibility of the currency peg of Cape Verde (CV) by assessing the impact of economic fundamentals, our explanatory variables, on the stochastic properties of Exchange Market Pressure (EMP), the dependent variable, using EGARCH-M models. Our EMP descriptive analysis finds a substantial reduction in the number of crisis episodes and of (unconditional) volatility after the peg's adoption. Moreover, our estimation results suggest that mean EMP is driven by fundamentals and that conditional variability is more sensitive to negative shocks.

We also find evidence that the expected return from holding CV's assets is lower under the currency peg for the same increase in monthly volatility. The reason is that the return's composition is "more virtuous", as it results from the strengthening of CV's foreign reserve position and is not due to either a larger risk premium or favourable exchange rate movements. We take this to be a sign of the credibility of the peg, which apparently reflects the intertemporal credibility of CV's economic policy and so has successfully withstood international markets' scrutiny.

Currency Peg, Exchange Market Pressure, EGARCH-M

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper

Abstract:
A framework is developed for macroeconomic policy analysis in four countries of Central Europe (CE) in transition to EU membership (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia). A Multi-Annual Fiscal Adjustment Strategy (MAFAS) and a Pre-Pegging Exchange Rate Regime (PPERR) appropriate for maintaining internal and external balance are described and evidence on budgetary procedures is presented, in comparison with those prevailing in EU member states. The comparison suggests that the four CE countries are better fit for fiscal stabilization than Greece, Spain and Portugal were in the 1970s. Nevertheless, there is still much room for institutional improvement. A stronger commitment mechanism to fiscal targets at the preparatory stage would improve fiscal performance in all four countries. The adoption of a kind of convergence program would also be made easier if some group procedures can be adopted among them. The four countries also appear to have moved closer to sustainability in their external and internal balance in the last few years so that a MAFAS and a PPERR become credible. The fact that they established CEFTA (which Slovenia since joined) also helps set them apart from other EU associates in the region.

Abstract:
In the framework of continuous-time finance theory, this paper derives the optimal consumption and portfolio rules for an international investor with constant expenditure shares alpha subscript j and constant relative risk aversion 1-gamma in a dynamic context. The index of value obtained from the consumption rule is used to obtain real returns on N different currencies in terms of their purchasing power over N goods. The portfolio rule is expressed in terms of the determinants of the purchasing powers, namely exchange rates and prices expressed in the numeraire currency. The optimal portfolio is interpreted as a capital position given by the expenditure shares and hedging zero net-worth portfolios depending on unanticipated inflation and risk aversion. It is shown that the minimum variance portfolio is independent of returns, but depends on expenditure patterns while the speculative portfolio depends on risk aversion and real return differentials. When the effect of preferences on real return differentials is made explicit, it is shown that the minimum variance portfolio is affected by risk aversion. In that case, the effect of an increase in alpha subscript i on the portfolio proportions chi subscript i will be positive when relative risk aversion is greater than one, as generally presumed.

Actual data from eight major countries is used to compute optimal portfolios based on real return differentials for different weighting schemes, degrees of risk aversion and sample periods when exchange rates and prices are assumed to be Brownian.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the design of structural policies by relating second-best results and the complementarity of reforms. It computes a complementarity index based on structural reform indicators compiled by the EBRD for transition countries, assuming that the run-up to EU integration corresponds to a nearly complete policy cycle. Using econometric panel estimates, the level of reforms and changes in their complementarity are found to be positively related to output growth, corrected for endogeneity, and given initial conditions and the extent of macroeconomic stabilisation.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper analyses policy interdependence under flexible exchange rates and its implications for middle-income countries in the Pacific area. In the first part of the paper, the consequences of strategic behavior among industrial countries are illustrated by means of a simple diagram. It is argued that in the absence of incentives to coordinate macroeconomic policies among major countries, exchange rates will tend to be volatile. Evidence on the world value of the dollar in the flexible rate period is then presented and interpreted.The second part describes exchange rate policies in the Pacific area. It is found that the widespread policy of pegging to the U.S. dollar has implied occasional large devaluations against the numeraire (Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia). An alternative, which requires higher Pacific trade and financial interdependence than the one prevailing during the last decade, would be a joint float along the lines of the policies seemingly pursued by Malaysia and Singapore.The two-country macroeconomic model presented in the Appendix can be used to assess the costs and benefits of policy coordination both at the world and at the regional level.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of currency inconvertibility, building on the role of relative prices in a portfolio balance model. The relationship between black markets for foreign exchange and smuggling is first analyzed from the perspective of an individual importer. According to the portfolio view, the black market rate behaves like the financial rate in a dual market. The premium of the black marlet rate over the official rate is thus related to the probability of success in smuggling and the tariff. Then the black market is analyzed using a simple three-good,two-asset general equilibrium model. Under the assumption of regressive exchange rate expectations, the portfolio view is contrasted with a monetary approach to the black market. The short-run and long-run effects of monetary and exchange rate policies on relative prices are assessed. Different assumptions about expected returns are contrasted, but emphasis is placed on the perfect foresight case. Unless expectations are static, official exchange rate policy has to adjust to the private valuation of foreign exchange, as stressed in the conclusion.

Abstract:
The paper presents a model of a monetary union designed to illuminate monetary and exchange rate policy in the West African Monetary Union (UMOA). Emphasis is placed on the interaction of the members of UMOA with each other, through the common central bank, and on their interaction with France and the rest of the world. As a consequence, the structure of the national economies depends essentially on their size.The relative size of the partners is reflected in the source and type of disturbances as well as in the trade pattern: large countries are not affected by disturbances originating in small countries. Small countries are affected by all external disturbances. The collective nature of the pegging becomes important because the small countries are taken to be of equal size.Using a four-country, two-tier macroeconomic model, it is shown that the pseudo-exchange rate union with the large partner has no effect on the real exchange rates of the small countries but affect their price levels, whereas a full monetary union requires in principle a transfer whose allocation between the two small countries by their common central bank may have real effects. This transfer is precisely provided by the large country, as guarantor of the fixed exchange rate arrangement. When both small countries are in surplus, there is a reverse transfer to the large country, with no monetary consequences. In line with the findings of the model, evidence is provided on monetary allocations in UMOA and on the real exchange rates of its major members, as compared to ot her African countries.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
This paper presents a very simple model of the effects of flexible exchange rates in the transmission of business cycles. The starting point is the traditional "locomotive" effect, through exports and imports. Aside from this horizontal transmission, the intertemporal exchange rate model presented here allows for the effect of future internal shocks on home income (horizontal transmission) as well as for the effect of future external shocks on home income (diagonal transmission). These channels highlight the role of flexible rates and follow from an intertemporal constraint on the trade balance. In the presence of foreign-held debt, furthermore, the locomotive effect can be reversed, so that a foreign boom can cause a recession at home. The determinants of the debt ceiling are derived. The model is simulated in the case of two symmetric countries with constant values for the policy variables and the interest rates at home and abroad.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes regimes of currency inconvertibility in the frame-work of a simple general equilibrium model where an officially-traded good,a smuggled good and a non-traded good are produced and consumed by residents,who hold domestic and foreign currency in their portfolios. It is shown that stability requires the effect of relative prices on demand for traded and non-traded goods to dominate their effect on asset demands and that a once-and-for-all devaluation does not change the currency substitution ratio.To the extent that the monetary authorities wish to change the currency composition of private financial wealth, a crawling peg is therefore the appropriate instrument. The direction of change depends on the nature of expectations about relative asset returns. Under perfect foresight, an increase in the rate of crawl increases the currency substitution ratio whereas, if expectations are static, it reduces it.

Abstract:
In this paper, we present a dynamic model which explains output, enployment and energy consumption in the French manufacturing sector in terms of the expectedand actual path of wage rates and energy prices in units of output. The modelhas two distinguishing features: First, the rate of capacity utilization isdetermined explicitly from profit-maximizing behavior and it is viewed as the crucial adjusting variable in the short run. Second, we assume complete lack of substitutability between capital, labor and energy inputs ex post.The model is motivated by a brief discussion of French growth, focusing on the decline of profitability and employment in manufacturing, and simulated using annual data from 1950 to 1979. The wage explosion and the energy shock of the early seventies are interpreted (in a model allowing for overhead labor) in terms of changes in expected real factor prices,and their effects on the utilizationand the profitability of each vintage are quantified. Aggregating over vintages,the model generates the observed decline in profitability and utilization of existing capacity. The results of the simulation are very encouraging, and a simultaneous estimation of the model under static expectations is rejected by the data. There are two limitations of the analysis which will be relaxed in further work. Investment is exogenous and open-economy aspects only appear indirectly, say via constraints on the energy price and the price of output.

Abstract:
No abstract is available for this paper.

Abstract:
In order to assess the growth implications of policy complementarities, this paper applies second-best results to reform indicators. During the transition from central planning to EU integration, which corresponds to a policy cycle, a complementarity index based on structural indicators compiled by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) decreases and then increases while the level of reforms tends to rise throughout. Corrected for initial conditions, the extent of macroeconomic stabilization and endogeneity, the level of reforms and changes in their complementarity are found to be positively related to output growth. The study uses panel data for 27 countries between 1989 and 2004.

Abstract:
This paper derives optimal weights for current-account and reserve indicators for adjusting the exchange rate (a "crawling peg"). Even (1975) showed that use of a current account indicator alone would not stabilize reserves, while a reserve indicator results in unstable fluctuations in the exchange rate. his paper begins by analyzing the problem in the framework of Phillips (1954), in which the current account indicator is "proportional" and the reserve indicator is "integral". We then analyze the problem in a deterministic optimal control framework, and finally as a problem in stochastic control. In all cases the optimal combination is a weighted average, which we call the Keven-Phillips formula. With a fairly low variance of the current account, its weight falls in the range 0.47-0.65. Rising variance reduces its weight in the optimal formula.

Abstract:
For Portugal, the transition to the Euro began in September 1989 and featured three successive institutional arrangements related to the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System: shadowing it, belonging to it with 6% and then with 15% fluctuation bands. Using daily data, we study how the degree of mean reversion of the exchange rate and central bank intervention reflect the change in economic regime towards stability and convertibility. Our Markov regime-switching framework with an EGARCH specification allows for deviations from central party and intervention to affect the mean, the conditional variance and the state transition probabilities in the different policy regimes. Mean reversion is significant even when volatility is high in ERM-6, unlike central bank intervention, which almost disappears in ERM_15. Intervention affects the mean and the variance of the exchange rate when volatility is low, and the variance in ERM-S, even when volatility is high.

Central bank intervention, target zones, exchange rate mechanism, regime-switching