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Abstract: We estimate the impact of foreign aid on corruption using geographical and cultural distance to the donor countries as instrumental variables to assess causality. Aid decreases corruption. Our results are statistically and economically significant and robust to different controls.
International Aid, Corruption, Instrumental Variables
Abstract: We analyze the effect of taxes and government spending on quarterly market returns of stocks, government bonds, and corporate bonds. In US data from 1960 to 2000, a one standard deviation increase in the share of tax receipts in GDP has a statistically and economically significant effect on returns, lowering annualized expected returns by 4% and 9% at quarterly and yearly horizons, respectively. Interestingly, the impact of taxes is quantitatively similar for stock and bond returns. These results can partly be explained by the high persistence of the tax series so that increases today imply permanently higher tax levels in the future. An increase in government spending has a positive impact on expected returns, but the effect is statistically significant only for bonds, at short horizons. Our findings represent a novel test of Ricardian Equivalence, using market returns. Fiscal policy shocks account for 3-4% of the variation in unexpected excess stock returns and 8-10% of the variation in unexpected excess bond returns. When fiscal and monetary policy changes are jointly identified, our results remain qualitatively unchanged and the quantitative results are only reinforced. More importantly, we find that fiscal policy is at least as important a source of return variability as is the policy of the Federal Reserve. The findings are surprisingly robust to various system specifications, such as cointegration assumptions and variable choice. Our results strongly suggest that fiscal policy shocks should be given more serious consideration in asset pricing.
returns, stocks, bonds, taxes, government spending, Ricardian Equivalence, fiscal policy
Abstract: This paper undertakes an empirical assessment of Dollarization versus regional currency union as options for the economies of East Asia, South America and Central America. We use summary indicators of bilateral integration to examine the determinants of real exchange rate volatility within each region and between each region and the United States. While Europe is characterized by a high degree of regional integration, there is evidence of increasing integration in East Asia and persistently low integration in the Americas, especially as compared to the levels of bilateral integration vis-a-vis the United States. Our estimates confirm the patterns of regional integration above and reveal substantial regional differences as to the determinants of real exchange rate volatility.
Exchange Rates, Currency Areas, Dollarization, East Asia, Europe, South America, Central America
Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy shocks over the cross-section of equity returns, differentiating between small and large stocks and value versus growth stocks. Using three different proxies for monetary policy, our results document a contemporaneous impact of changes in the Federal Funds rate that is significantly larger for the returns of small stocks relative to large stocks, and for value stocks relative to growth stocks. In addition, we find that the dispersion in the responses to monetary shocks is mostly explained by the effects on portfolio cash flow news, rather than portfolio discount rate news. We document the dispersion of the impact of monetary shocks on industry returns, with industries that experience stronger responses generally tilted toward smaller firms and value firms. In an asset pricing cross-sectional framework, monetary factors are priced, and to some degree measure the same risks as the Fama-French (1993) factors, although they also contain explanatory power that is not related to those factors.
Monetary policy and stock returns, Federal funds rate, Fed, Size and book-to-market, Asset pricing, Cross-section of stock returns, Fama-French factors, cash flow and discount rate news, predictability of returns, industry returns
Abstract: In this paper we provide, for the first time, empirical estimates of the effect of indicators of bilateral economic integration on the correlation of real stock returns between economies. We concentrate on the role of bilateral real exchange rate volatility, bilateral trade intensity, correlation of output growth and export dissimilarity and find that, when entered in isolation, each indicator has the expected effect. In particular, trade intensity increases the correlation of stock returns and real exchange rate volatility, the asymmetry of output growth and the degree of export dissimilarity decrease it. When we add control variables as determinants of the cross correlation of returns the results change considerably. Only the export dissimilarity and the bilateral trade remain significant in explaining the correlation of stock returns when entered in isolation. Alternatively, we use common membership of a regional trade agreement or the presence of a currency peg or currency band between the currencies of the two countries as indicators of bilateral integration. Now, only common membership in a trade agreement matters for the correlation of stock returns and does so in the expected way, increasing it. When we instrument for participation in these types of agreements we find that, when entered independently, participation in a regional trade agreement or a currency agreement do cause an increase the correlation of stock returns. However, when we instrument for participation in both agreements we cannot uncover a significant effect.
Economic integration, Correlation of stock returns, Real exchange rate volatility, Regional trade agreements, Exchange rate agreements
Abstract: This paper characterizes monetary and exchange-rate policies during successful and unsuccessful fiscal adjustments by analyzing the OECD economies over the period 1970 to 1998. We find that successful adjustments are almost always preceded by large nominal and real exchange rate depreciations while unsuccessful adjustments are preceded by revaluations and followed by depreciations. The extreme adjustments of Ireland and Denmark in the 1990s fit this pattern of depreciation for success very closely. Early depreciation is a significant and quantitatively important predictor of the persistence of adjustment: each 1 percent of depreciation in the two years preceding a fiscal adjustment leads to approximately 2 percent increase in the probability of success. Since the size of the typical pre-adjustment depreciation is 5%, this is an important effect. When compared to an indicator of the composition of the fiscal adjustment, the reliance on spending cuts, the two variables have similar quantitative impacts on the likelihood of persistence. Our results are robust to alternative definitions of the depreciation period, the persistence of the adjustment, and whether we use effective, DM or US$ exchange rates. Monetary policy does not play a significant role in fiscal adjustments. Our results suggest that attaining persistent fiscal adjustment within EMU is likely to become a more "costly" endeavor than it was beforehand, as EMU members have adopted a single currency and therefore abandoned the use of exchange rate policies vis-a-vis each other.
Abstract: In this paper we use the widely held assumption that left-wing cabinets favor a larger size of government to answer the question: does the pair cabinet ideology-fiscal action affect the persistence of major fiscal adjustments? For a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 1995, we find that left and right-wing cabinets are partisan: when cutting the budget deficit, the left relies mostly on tax increases and the right on spending cuts. Our testable hypothesis is that cabinets signal commitment and gain credibility by undertaking fiscal adjustments in ways not favored by its natural constituency: specifically, the left cuts expenditures and the right increases taxes. Probit estimates of the determinants of persistence in fiscal adjustments provide evidence that cuts in spending by the left and tax increases by the right lead to more persistent adjustments. These results are consistent with the literature on fiscal adjustments that has revealed that adjustments pursued by spending cuts are more persistent. We identify other adjustment characteristics that influence the persistence of the deficit cut: coalition cabinets, as well as majority cabinets, are less likely to be successful; a high level or rising public debt tend to make the adjustment more credible. We find evidence that output and specially private investment respond to the pair cabinet ideology-fiscal action in a way that is consistent with our credibility hypothesis: cuts in spending by the left have a stronger expansionary effect on investment than cuts by the right, whereas increases in taxes by the left have a contractionary effect.
Fiscal Adjustments, Cabinet Ideology, Credibility, OECD.
Abstract: This paper tests the implication of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem that capital-poor individuals prefer more trade openness in poor (capital-scarce) countries and less trade in rich (labor-scarce) countries, by using a broad panel of countries and new exogenous determinants of trade openness. According to the seminal work in Mayer (1984), capital-poor individuals prefer more trade openness in poor (capital-scarce) countries and less trade openness in rich (labor-scarce) countries. We use the level of political rights as a proxy for the relative capital-labor endowment of the median voter so that an increase in political rights should have asymmetric effects in poor and rich countries: an increase in political rights should lead to more openness in capital poor countries and less openness in capital rich countries. Our results show that, while both income per capita and political rights are positively associated with import intensity, their interaction has a negative and very robust negative association with openness. Increases in political rights lead to sizeable decreases in import intensity after a given income per capita threshold has been surpassed. Our results are robust to the inclusion of structural, geography and cultural determinants of openness, different estimation methods and different proxies for country endowments.
Trade Openness, Factor Proportions, Political Rights, Stolper-Samuelson Effects
Abstract: The increase in income per capita is accompanied, in virtually all countries, by two changes in the structure of the economy, namely an increase in the share of government spending in GDP and an increase in female labour force participation. This paper suggests that these two changes are causally related. We develop a growth model where the structure of the economy is endogenous so that participation in market activities and government size are causally related. Economic growth and rising incomes are accompanied by a greater incentive for women to engage in labour market activities as the opportunity cost of staying at home increases. We hypothesize that government spending decreases the cost of performing household chores such as, but not limited to, child rearing and child care so that couples decide to engage further in the labour market and chose a higher tax rate to finance more government spending. Using a wide cross-section of data for developed and developing countries, we show that higher participation by women in the labour market are indeed positively associated with larger governments. Furthermore, we investigate the causal link between the two variables using as instrumental variables a unique and novel dataset on the relative price of home appliances across OECD countries and over time. We find strong evidence of a causal link between participation in the labour market and government size: a 10 percent rise in participation in the labour market leads to a 7 to 8 percent rise in government size. This effect is robust to the country sample, time period, and a set of controls in the spirit of Rodrik (1998). The inclusion of an endogenous choice of government spending allows a considerable extension of the model in Galor and Weil (2000) so fertility can either rise or fall and phenomena like the baby boom and baby bust in Greenwood at el. (2002) can be addressed. In addition, the paper has important implications for the analysis of the secular as well as cross-country determinants of government size.
Growth, structural transformation, government size
Abstract: The secular rise in female labour force participation, highlighted in the recent macroeconomics literature on growth and structural change, has been associated with the declining price and wider availability of home appliances. This paper uses a new and unique country dataset on the price of home appliances to test its impact on female labour supply. We assess the role of the price of appliances in raising participation by comparing it to other structural determinants such as average male income. A decrease in the relative price of appliances - the ratio of the price of appliances to the consumer price index - leads to a substantial and statistically significant increase in female labour force participation. In the United Kingdom, for instance, the decline in the relative price of home appliances accounts alone for about 10 to 15 percent of the increase in female labour force participation from 1975 to 1999. This result is robust to the inclusion of additional controls, such as country dummies, time trend, government spending, capital to output ratio, and the growth rate of real GDP. To assess causality, we test for exogeneity and use the manufactured price index as an instrumental variable, confirming that lower appliance prices lead to increased female participation.
Female labour force participation, home appliances, structural changes, business cycles
Abstract: This paper investigates whether monetary and exchange rate policies are important for the success of major fiscal adjustments. We assess their role controlling for other determinants of success identified in the literature, including the size and composition of the deficit cut, the level of public debt and the rate of economic growth. We find that successful adjustments are preceded by exchange rate depreciations. Empirically, a depreciation of the nominal effective exchange of one standard deviation of the sample mean in the two years before an adjustment increases the probability of success by 2 percentage points. The size and composition of the deficit cut are also important determinants of success: an increase of one standard deviation of the sample mean raises the probability of success by 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively. One implication of our results is that it may be more difficult to attain persistent fiscal adjustments within the Economic and Monetary Union of Europe, since the adoption of a single currency rules out the use of exchange rate policy among member countries.
exchange rate, fiscal adjustment, monetary policy, EMU
Abstract: In this paper we organize the literature on the economics of terrorism around seven different topics, offering a comprehensive view of the literature with a view to identifying questions that remain unanswered. The chosen topic areas are: The Measurement of Terrorist Activity, The Nature of Terrorists, The Utility Cost of Terrorism, The Impact of Terrorism on Aggregate Output, Terrorism and Specific Sectors of Activity, Terrorism and Economic Policy, and Counter-Terrorism. In a sense, we proceed from measurement issues to studies of the characteristics of terrorists and terrorist organizations, the consequences of terrorism on individual utility and, aggregate output and on specific sectors of activity, as well as the impact of terrorism on fiscal and monetary policies. We conclude with an examination of the economics literature on counter-terrorism measures. For each of the topics above, we present what the literature has achieved, the important questions that remain open and the type of data that would help researchers make progress. In our discussion, we identify the main papers in the literature and the issue(s) where each made a contribution, presenting a brief individual summary for these papers, organized along the topic areas.
Counter-Terrorism, Economics of Terrorism, Nature of Terrorists, Output Costs, Utility Costs
Abstract: The economics literature provides ample evidence that higher corruption discourages FDI inflows. In this paper we address, for the first time in the literature in a systematic way, the exact reverse link, i.e., the empirical effect of FDI inflows on corruption. We present a simple model that illustrates the two-way relationship between foreign direct investment and corruption, identifying exactly the direction of causality that we address: how do "exogenous" variations in FDI affect the degree of corruption in the host country. Our dataset covers a wide group of countries for the period 1981-2000, and we confront the issue of causality by constructing an original set of instrumental variables relying on geographical and cultural distance between FDI source and host countries to measure exogenous time-varying changes in FDI inflows. We find that FDI inflows (as a share of GDP) significantly decrease corruption in the host country. The quantitative impact of FDI inflows on corruption is stronger than the impact of trade openness and tariff rates on corruption and is validated by the use of instrumental variables. The results are robust to the inclusion of several determinants of openness, in addition to trade intensity and the average tariff level, including dependence on natural resources, ethnic fractionalization, size of the economy and government expenditure. Quantitatively, the impact of FDI inflows on corruption is of the same order of magnitude as the impact of per capita income on corruption.
Corruption, Foreign Direct Investment, Instrumental Variables, International Trade, Tariffs
Abstract: Gender-based discrimination is a pervasive and costly phenomenon. To a greater or lesser extent, all economies present a gender wage gap, associated with lower female labour force participation rates and higher fertility. This paper presents a growth model where saving, fertility and labour market participation are endogenously determined, and there is wage discrimination. The model is calibrated to mimic the performance of the U.S. economy, including the gender wage gap and relative female labour force participation. We then compute the output cost of an increase in discrimination, to find that a 50 percent increase in the gender wage gap leads to a decrease in income per capita of a quarter of the original output. We then compile independent estimates of the female to male earnings ratio for a wide cross-section of countries to construct a new economy, in line with the benchmark U.S. economy, except for the degree of discrimination. We compare the level of output per capita predicted by this model economy with the actual output per capita for each country. Higher discrimination leads to lower output per capita for two reasons: a direct decrease in female labour market participation and an indirect effect through an increase in fertility. We find that for several countries a large fraction of the actual difference in output per capita between the U.S. and the different economies is due to gender inequality. For countries such as Ireland and Saudi Arabia, wage discrimination actually explains all of the output difference with the U.S. Moreover, we find that the increase in fertility due to discrimination is responsible for almost half of the decrease in output per capita, and equivalent to the direct decrease in output due to lower female participation. Our basic model suggests the costs of gender discrimination are indeed quite substantial and should be a central concern in any macroeconomic policy aimed at increasing output per capita in the long-run.
Economic Development, Female Labour Force Participation, Fertility, Gender Inequality
Abstract: Several authors claim that voters in new democracies reward deficits at the polls and this fact is due to a lack of 'voter sophistication'. We test this claim for gubernatorial elections in Brazil, an important case study since it is the fourth most populous democracy in the world, displays a high variance in economic and social characteristics across states, and effectively imposes mandatory voting. Our evidence shows that voters are fiscally conservative, that is, they reward lower deficits, which is in contradiction to the literature. We do find that, when we use state income per capita, education and income inequality as proxies for 'voter sophistication', 'naïve' voters do not reward low deficits as opposed to 'sophisticated' voters, and education is the key element for this distinction. We propose that education rather than the youth of the democracy, is the key element for assessing voter 'sophistication'.
Budget Deficits, Elections, Fiscal Conservatism, Political Cycles
Abstract: In this paper we analyze the determinants of co-movements in stock returns among 40 developed and emerging markets, from the 1970s to the 1990s. We provide empirical estimates of the impact of bilateral indicators of economic integration such as bilateral trade intensity, the dissimilarity of export structures, the asymmetry of output growth and bilateral real exchange rate volatility. We find that each indicator has the expected effect on the correlation of stock returns: trade intensity increases the correlation of stock returns, while real exchange rate volatility, the asymmetry of output growth and the degree of export dissimilarity decrease it. We also find that countries with more developed and more analogous institutions - in terms of either rule of law or civil liberties - display a higher correlation of stock returns.
Bilateral Trade Intensity, Co-movement of Stock Returns, Economic Integration, Real Exchange Rate Volatility
Abstract: The increase in income per capita is accompanied, in virtually all countries, by two changes in the structure of the economy: an increase in the share of government spending in GDP and an increase in female labor force participation. This paper suggests that the changes in female labor force participation and government size are not just coincident in time, they are causally related. We develop a growth model with endogenous fertility, labor force participation and government size to illustrate this causal link. When government consumption and/or subsidies decrease the cost of performing household chores - including, but not limited to child rearing and child care - an increase in the female market wage leads to an increase in labor force participation by women and a demand for higher government spending. As women make the decision to work outside the home, they increase their demand for services typically provided by the government, such as education and health care, which, in turn, decrease the cost of home and family activities that are overwhelmingly performed by women. We show, for a wide cross-section of developed and developing countries, that higher female participation rates in the labor market are positively associated with larger governments. We investigate the causal link by instrumenting for female labor force participation with the prevalence of contraceptive methods and the relative price of household appliances. Female labor force participation is found to cause an increase in government size, with a 10 percent rise in the former leading to a 6.5 to 9 percent rise in the latter. This e.ect is stronger for government consumption than for government subsidies and is robust to the country sample, time period, and a set of controls in the spirit of Rodrik (1998).
Economic Development, Female Labor Supply, Government Size, Home Activities
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