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Abstract:
Using a detailed and large data set on cross-border merger and acquisitions we discuss the relationship between theory and observed empirical characteristics: (i) most FDI is in the form of M&As, (ii) firms engaged in M&As seem to be 'market-seeking', (iii) M&As come in waves (the most recent wave is still unfolding), (iv) economic integration (international deregulation) stimulated M&As, (v) the size of and inequality between M&As grows over time. Our contention in this chapter is that these stylized facts drive and should drive recent theoretical contributions in the field of international economics that try to understand cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Although some models (notably Neary, 2003) explain a number of the characteristics, a full-fledged model of cross-border M&As that, at least in principle, can deal with all the characteristics is still lacking.

Abstract:
By combining two large data sets (on international trade flows and on mergers and acquisitions - M&As), we are able to test two implications of Neary's (2003, 2004a) recent theoretical work. Analyzing M&As in a General Oligopolistic Equilibrium (GOLE) model incorporating strategic interaction between firms in a general equilibrium setting, we argue that: (i) M&As follow revealed comparative advantage as measured by the Balassa index, and (ii) M&As come in waves. We find convincing support for both hypotheses, thus showing for the first time that there is an empirical connection between export performance and mergers and acquisitions.

comparative advantage, cross border mergers and acquisitions, merger waves, general oligopolistic equilibrium model

Abstract:
This paper analyses the impact of share ownership, creditorship and networking by financial institutions on the performance of 94 Dutch non-financial firms in the period 1992-1996. We find a nonlinear relationship between firm performance and ownership by banks. Because of various defense mechanisms the role of the shareholder is very limited in the Netherlands. Financial institutions are, however, in a position to discipline firm management through other channels. It turns out that there is a direct positive link between share ownership by banks and the firms` short-term bank loans, which indicates the existence of a financing channel. Financial institutions are also represented on the supervisory boards of firms and vice versa, which is an example of networking. This suggests that besides creditorship networking may be an additional disciplinary device for financial institutions. Here we find that there is a significant positive relationship between share ownership by insurance companies and pension funds and the probability of networking.

Abstract:
By combining two large data sets (on international trade flows and cross-border mergers and acquisitions - M&As), we test two implications of Neary's (2003, 2007) general oligopolistic equilibrium (GOLE) model (incorporating strategic interaction between firms in a general equilibrium setting). In terms of economic importance, the dominant merger wave variable is a positive global-all effect, indicating that M&A waves are an economy-wide, global phenomenon. Country-specific merger wave variables are of secundary importance. In accordance with the bilateral GOLE model as specified by Neary, we find strong evidence that acquiring firms operate in strong sectors. However, we also find (less pronounced) evidence that target firms are active in strong, not weak sectors, which we label the 'target paradox'. We show how a multi-country extension of the GOLE model that allows for firm heterogeneity can explain this target paradox.

Comparative Advantage, Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions, Merger Waves, General Oligopolistic Equilibrium Trade Model

Abstract:
The Berle-Means problem - information and incentive asymmetries disrupting relations between knowledgeable managers and remote investors - has remained a durable issue engaging researchers since the 1930's. However, the Berle-Means paradigm - widely-dispersed, helpless investors facing strong, entrenched managers - is under stress in the wake of the cross-country evidence presented by La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny and their legal approach to corporate control. This paper continues to investigate the roles of investor protections and concentrated ownership by examining firm behaviour in the Netherlands. Our within country analysis generates two key results. First, the role of investor protections emphasized in the legal approach is not sustained. Rather, we find that performance is enhanced when the firm is freed of equity market constraints, a result that we attribute to the relaxation of the myopia constraints imposed by relatively uninformed investors. Second, ownership concentration does not have a discernible impact on firm performance, which may reflect large shareholders' dual role in lowering the costs of managerial agency problems but raising the agency costs of expropriation.

Abstract:
This paper studies the experiences with fiscal adjustments in the European Union (EU) countries during the transition period to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Using several approaches suggested in the literature on fiscal adjustments and their macroeconomic effects and in the literature on EMU, we analyze the effects of the fiscal adjustments during this period on private consumption. Thereby, we also take the specific context of the transition towards EMU explicitly into consideration. At best mixed evidence for the presence of non-linearities in the relation between fiscal adjustments and private spending is obtained. There is no clear-cut evidence for the hypothesis of "expansionary fiscal contractions" which may have alleviated the burden from fiscal consolidation in the EMU case. The sensitivity of the results for a number of factors is also checked.

Fiscal Retrenchment, EMU

Abstract:
This paper is about the impact of globalisation on (low-skilled) labour. We build a new economic geography model in which two types of labour (low and high-skilled) are distinguished and in which, due to wage rigidities, unemployment may arise. We also introduce two types of transportation costs (for goods and services) to allow for a more intricate analysis of the effect of globalisation. A first conclusion is that the impact on wages and unemployment depends critically on the level and type of the transportation costs that is being reduced, the distribution of low and high skilled labour and notably also on the degree of wage flexibility. Globalisation is by no means always bad news for the low-skilled. On the contrary, in some of the simulations that we performed, the low-skilled are better off in terms of their relative wage or the unemployment outcome as globalisation progresses. A final conclusion is that it matters a great deal for the effects of globalisation whether or not wages are rigid.

Abstract:
We construct a unique data set to analyze whether or not a large temporary shock had an impact on German city growth and city size distribution. Following recent work by Davis and Weinstein (2001) on Japan, we take the strategic bombing of German cities during WWII as our example of such a shock. The goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of this shock on German city growth and the resulting city size distribution. If city growth follows a random walk this would imply that the war shock had a permanent impact on German city growth. If, however, as a second group of theories predicts, the random walk hypothesis is not confirmed, this would mean that the war shock had at most a temporary effect on the city growth process. Our main finding is that city growth in western Germany did not follow a random walk, while in eastern Germany it did. Different post-war economic systems are most likely responsible for this outcome.

Abstract:
In this paper we want to shed some light on the empirical relevance of the new economic geography. Using one of the central features of the core new economic geography models, namely that wages have the tendency to fall the further one moves away from centres of economic activity, we investigate the existence of a spatial wage structure for post-unification Germany. We find support for a spatial wage structure for German city-district wages, and hence indirectly for the relevance of a new economic geography model for Germany. We also find that demand linkages in Germany are strongly localised and that the "old" border still matters to the extent that economic interactions between western and eastern Germany are still limited compared to the situation within these two parts of Germany.

New Economic Geography, Spatial Wage Structure, Germany

Abstract:
The 2008 Nobel prize for economics was awarded to Paul Krugman for three papers - Krugman (1979, 1980, 1991). In this paper we illustrate that, indeed, these three papers are closely connected. We present - a summary of - the papers using a unified framework. Central in the discussion is the so-called home market effect that was already alluded to in Krugman (1979). We evaluate his work and conclude that these three papers changed and improved the way economists think about trade and geography.

Abstract:
Most FDI takes place between the developed countries, which suggests that the market-seeking motive is important for understanding FDI. However, given the stylized fact that trade barriers (e.g. transportation costs and financial barriers) have declined over the past 20 years, models that aim to explain market-seeking FDI tend to predict a decline in FDI. Neary (2008) offers two explanations for this puzzle: (1) the export platform motive (where firms gain access to an integrated market by investing in one of the "integrated" countries); (2) Neary's (2007) GOLE model, which explains cross-border mergers and acquisitions (this model is of interest since most FDI comes in the form of M&As). By using a gravity framework, where we also deal with the "zero gravity problem", we confirm the predictions of the GOLE model.

cross-border M&As, financial openness, economic integration

Abstract:
With the completion of EMU, tax competition and, more in general, locational competition is high on the EU policy agenda. In contrast to the standard neo-classical reasoning, recent advances in the theory of trade and location have shown that tax competition does not necessarily lead to a "race to the bottom". In these recent discussions the relevance of government spending as an instrument for locational competition is unduly neglected. We therefore introduce a more elaborate government sector in a geographical economics model by analyzing government spending and government production. By changing the relative size, direction or efficiency of the production of public goods, our simulation results show that governments can change the equilibrium between agglomerating and spreading forces. In addition, we show analytically that the introduction of public goods fosters agglomeration. Ultimately, our paper shows that by restricting attention to taxes, one ignores that government spending also determines the attractiveness of a country as a location for the mobile factors of production.

Abstract:
To explain cross-country income differences, research has recently focused on the so-called deep determinants of economic development, notably institutions and geography. This paper sheds a different light on these determinants. We use spatial econometrics to analyse the importance of the geography of institutions. We show that it is not only absolute geography, in terms of for instance climate, but also relative geography, the spatial linkages between countries, that matters for a country's gdp per capita. Apart from a country's own institutions, institutions in neighboring countries turn out to be relevant as well. This finding is robust to various alternative specifications.

Abstract:
The evolution of city growth is usually studied for relatively short time periods. The rise and decline of cities is, however, typically a process that takes many decades or even centuries. In this paper we study the evolution of Italian cities over the period 1300-1861. The first contribution of our paper is that we use various descriptive statistics on individual city sizes and the city-size distribution as a whole to highlight the main characteristics of Italy's urban system such as the differences between northern and southern Italy. Our second, and main, contribution is that our data allow for panel estimation where city-size is regressed on various geographical, political and other determinants of city size for the period 1300-1861. We show that, although large shocks such as the plague epidemics are clearly visible in the data, the main determinants of Italy's city growth invariably are physical geography and political predominance. Also the North-South difference turns out to be important.

Abstract:
For reasons of analytical tractability, new economic geography (NEG) models treat geography in a very simple way: attention is either confined to a simple 2-region or to an equidistant multi-region world. As a result, the main predictions regarding the impact of e.g. diminishing trade costs are based on these simple models. When doing empirical or policy work these simplifying assumptions become problematic and it may very well be that the conclusions from the simple models do not carry over to the heterogeneous geographical setting faced by the empirical researcher or policy maker. This paper tries to fill this gap by adding more realistic geography structures to the Puga (1999) model that encompasses several benchmark NEG models. By using extensive simulations we show that many, although not all, conclusions from the simple models do carry over to our multi-region setting with more realistic geography structures. Given these results, we then simulate the impact of increased EU integration on the spatial distribution of regional economic activity for a sample of 194-NUTSII regions and find that further integration will most likely be accompanied by higher levels of agglomeration.

Abstract:
Based on a new economic geography (NEG) model by Puga (1999), we use the equilibrium wage equation to estimate two key structural model parameters for the NUTS II EU regions. These estimations enable us to come up with an empirically grounded free-ness of trade parameter. In line with NEG theory, the estimation results show that a spatial wage structure exists for the EU regions. By going back to the theoretical model we then analyze the implications of the free-ness of trade parameter for the degree of agglomeration. Our main findings suggest that agglomeration forces still have only a limited spatial reach in the EU. Agglomeration forces appear to be rather localized. At the same time, confronting our empirical results with the underlying new economic geography model also brings out the limitations of empirical research in new economic geography.

Abstract:
This paper studies the design, effects and interactions of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro-area and between the euro-area and the non euro-area. To do so, a stylized three-country model of monetary and fiscal policy rules is constructed. It is analyzed how monetary and fiscal rules affect the adjustment dynamics in the individual euro-area countries, the aggregate euro-area and the US, which is used as a proxy of the non euro-area. Four aspects play an important role in the analysis: (i) the consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policy rules, (ii) transatlantic spillovers and policy interactions, and the dynamics of the euro and euro-area current account, (iii) the consequences of asymmetries between euro-area countries - asymmetries in macroeconomic shocks, macroeconomic structures or policy preferences - and between the euro-area and the US, (iv) the role of alternative degrees of backward and forward looking (expectations) in output and inflation.

EMU, fiscal policy, monetary policy

Abstract:
The physical or absolute geography of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is often blamed for its poor economic performance. A country's location however not only determines its absolute geography, it also pins down its relative position on the globe vis-a-vis other countries. This paper assesses the importance of relative geography, and access to foreign markets in particular, in explaining the substantial income differences between SSA countries. We base our empirical analysis on a new economic geography model. We first construct a measure of each SSA country's market access based on bilateral trade flows and then assess the relevance of market access for economic development. In doing so, we explicitly distinguish between the importance of access to other SSA markets and to the rest of world respectively. We find that market access, and notably intra-SSA market access, has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita. This indicates that improving SSA market access (e.g. by investing in intra-SSA infrastructure or through increased SSA integration) will have substantial positive effects on its future economic development.

Sub Saharan Africa, economic development, economic geography, market access

Abstract:
In Bulgaria and other transition economies, liquidity constraints and hence access to external funds must be seen in the context of soft budget constraints and the financial system's failure to enforce the efficient allocation of funds. Liquidity constraints in Bulgaria may be seen as a sign of financial weakness. Budina, Garretsen, and de Jong use firm level data on Bulgaria to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on firms' investment performance.

Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrial economies. The authors use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in Bulgaria's case. Their estimates are based on data for 1993-95, before Bulgaria's financial crisis of 1996-97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity-constrained and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity-constrained.

In the authors' view, liquidity constraints in transition economies should be interpreted in different ways than those in industrial economies. In Bulgaria, liquidity constraints and hence access to external funds should be seen in the context of soft budget constraints and the financial system's failure to enforce the efficient allocation of funds. The relationship between liquidity constraints and firm characteristics may actually be the opposite of what is normally the case in industrial countries. In Bulgaria, lack of liquidity constraints may be a sign of financial weakness.

This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study transition economies.

Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to test for the relevance of spatial linkages for Dutch (outbound) FDI. To do so, and based on recent FDI theories, we estimate a spatial lag model to assess the importance of spatial linkages for Dutch FDI to 18 host countries. As a determinant of FDI, space or geography also enters our empirical analysis through the market size and a corporate income tax variable. Our paper is among the few to date to take spatial linkages with respect to FDI into account. The Dutch case is also interesting because Dutch firms account for a large part of global FDI and related research has so far focused mainly on US FDI. After controlling for fixed effects, we find for our sample period 1984-2004 that third country effects matter, but the results are somewhat sensitive to sample and model selection. Apart from our benchmark spatial lag model, we discuss and estimate various alternative models notably by looking at European host FDI countries only, by dividing FDI into industry and services FDI and by estimating a spatial error model as well.

Abstract:
Trade costs are crucial in new economic geography (NEG) models. The unavailability of actual trade costs data requires the approximation of trade costs. Most NEG studies do not deal with the ramifications of the particular trade costs specification used. This paper shows that the specification of trade costs matters. Estimations of a NEG wage equation for a sample of 80 countries show how the relevance of the key NEG variable, market access, depends upon the trade costs specification. Our conclusion is that NEG needs to (re-)examine the sensitivity of its empirical findings to the handling of trade costs.

Abstract:
The empirical literature on city size distributions has mainly focused on the USA. The first major contribution of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the evolution and structure of the West-German city size distribution. Using a unique annual data set that covers most of the 20th century for 62 of West-Germany's largest cities, we look at the evolution of both the city size distribution as a whole and each city separately. The West-German case is of particular interest as it has undergone major shocks, most notably WWII. Our data set allows us to identify these shocks and provide evidence on the effects of these 'quasi-natural experiments' on the city size distribution. The second major contribution of this paper is that we perform unit-root tests on individual German city sizes using a substantial number of observations to analyze the evolution of the individual cities that make up the German city size distribution. Our main findings are twofold. First, WWII has had a major and lasting impact on the city size distribution. Second, the overall city size distribution does not adhere to Zipf's Law. This second finding is largely based on the results of unit root tests for individual cities to test for Gibrat's Law, the latter being a requirement for Zipf's Law to hold for the overall city-size distribution. Together these two findings are consistent with theories emphasizing increasing returns to scale in city growth.

Abstract:
In explaining the uneven spatial distribution of economic activity, urban economics and new economic geography (NEG) dominate recent research in economics. A main difference between these two approaches is that NEG stresses the role of spatial linkages whereas urban economics does not do so. We estimate simple versions of these two views on economic geography and also establish if the relevance of spatial linkages varies across aggregation levels or time. For our sample of 14 European countries and 213 corresponding regions, we find that spatial linkages are more important at the country level and that its relevance varies across time.

Abstract:
Many modern trade and growth models are characterized by multiple equilibria. In theory the analysis of multiple equilibria is possible, but in practice it is difficult to test for the presence of multiple equilibria. Based on the methodology developed by Davis and Weinstein (2004) for the case of Japanese cities and WWII, we look for multiple equilibria in a model of German city growth. The strategic bombing of Germany during WWII enables us to assess the empirical relevance of multiple equilibria in a model of city-growth. In doing so, and in addition to the Davis and Weinstein framework, we look at the spatial inter-dependencies between cities. The main findings are twofold. First, multiple equilibria seem to be present in German city growth. Our evidence supports a model with 2 stable equilibria. Second, the explicit inclusion of geography matters. Evidence for multiple equilibria is weaker when spatial interdependencies are not taken into account.

Abstract:
Recent studies of border effects have focused on the intra-country and inter-country comparison of trade flows. It is found that borders have a negative impact on the size of cross-border trade. In order to estimate border effects on a regional level one needs not only data on inter-country but also on intra-country trade. For many countries (regional) data on intra-country trade are simply lacking, which makes an analysis of border effects and border regions cumbersome. In this paper we take a different approach to measure the impact of borders. We estimate a market potential function for German regional wages and by analysing whether German border regions can be distinguished from the other regions in terms of their wages. We use a market potential function because its basic idea (regional wages fall the further one moves away from economic centers) can be grounded on different trade theories and also because the resulting wage equation is related to border effect studies based on trade flows. We use a data set for 441 German districts for the years 1992 and 1995. In general, we find some evidence that is consistent with the existence of border effects but this evidence is probably better looked upon as an indication of a strong localisation of demand spillovers on regional wages in general. Even though border effects can not be ruled out, the overriding outcome is that of a strong localization of demand spill-overs for all German regions.

economic geography, empirical estimation, Germany

Abstract:
A key issue in development economics is the explanation of core-periphery patterns around the world. Combining this issue with that of analyzing unilateral transfers (e.g. foreign aid) points in the direction of the use of New Economic Geography (NEG) models which, so far, has not been done explicitly. This paper tries to fill this gap in the literature by studying the (possibly 'catastrophic') effects of aid around the so-called break-points and sustain-points in a NEG model. We also analyze the effects of a 'bystander', that is a country which is not directly involved in the transfer. In the traditional transfer literature a bystander is known to potentially cause transfer paradoxes. Our findings in this NEG setting are as follows. First, direct transfer paradoxes are not possible in a symmetric setting even if a bystander is present. Second, the effects of foreign aid depend on the level of economic integration between donor and recipient. Third, if the equilibrium from which aid is given is stable, aid only has a temporary effect (even if there is a bystander present). Fourth, if the donor is relatively large, not only the recipient but also the bystander benefits from foreign aid.

Abstract:
Using German district data we estimate the structural parameters of a new economic geography model as developed by Helpman (1998) and Hanson (1998, 2001a). The advantage of the Helpman-Hanson model is that it incorporates the fact that agglomeration of economic activity increases the prices of local (nontradable) services, like housing. This model thereby provides an intuitively appealing spreading force that allows for less extreme agglomeration patterns than predicted by the bulk of new economic geography models. Generalizing the Helpman-Hanson model, we also analyze the implications for the spatial distribution of wages once the assumption of real wage equalization is dropped. If we no longer assume real wage equalization we find support for a spatial wage structure as well as for the relevance of the structural parameters of the theoretical model.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) using a stylized two-country model. First, it is shown how asymmetries between countries might matter in terms of the resulting business cycle fluctuations. More specifically, country-specific shocks are allowed for, as well as cross-national differences in wage behavior. Second, it is shown by means of numerical simulations how national and federal fiscal stabilization policies can be used to dampen business cycle fluctuations in various (a)symmetric settings. The main innovation of the paper is to illustrate how structural differences between countries help to determine the impact of macroeconomic shocks and the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

Abstract:
In explaining the uneven spatial distribution of economic activity, urban economics, and new economic geography (NEG) dominate recent research in economics. A main difference between these two approaches is that NEG stresses the role of spatial linkages whereas urban economics does not do so. We estimate simple versions of these two views on economic geography and also establish if the relevance of spatial linkages varies across aggregation levels or time. For our sample of 14 European countries and 213 corresponding regions, we find that spatial linkages are more important at the country level and that its relevance varies across time.

Abstract:
To explain cross-country income differences, research has recently focused on the so-called deep determinants of economic development, notably institutions and geography. This article shows that it is not only absolute geography, in terms of for instance climate or being landlocked, but also relative geography, the spatial linkages between countries, that matters for a country's GDP per capita. More specifically, we analyze the importance of the geography of institutions. We show that apart from its own institutions, the institutional quality in neighboring countries is also important for a country's economic development. This finding is robust to various alternative specifications of relative geography, sample size and the inclusion of additional controls.

relative geography, economic development, institutions

Abstract:
Based on a data set for 19 OECD countries for the period 1981 2001, we estimate the impact of FDI on corporate tax rates, where changes in FDI are a measure for changes in capital mobility. So far the literature has been concerned with the related but rather different question as to the sensitivity of FDI to tax rates. Our article takes an opposite perspective and asks what the impact of capital mobility is on corporate tax rates. In doing so, we explicitly take the role of agglomeration into account. In theory, core countries can afford a higher tax rate compared to peripheral countries. In our estimation strategy, we instrument capital mobility to deal with reverse causality. The main conclusion is that increased international capital mobility, measured by FDI flows, implies a lower corporate tax rate. But we also find that agglomeration matters: core countries have a higher corporate tax rate than peripheral countries. If there is a race to the bottom, it seems that it is more real for some countries than others. (JEL code: H25)

corporate taxes, capital mobility, agglomeration, new economic geography

Abstract:
We use Bulgarian firm-level data to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrialized countries. We test whether internal funds are important for firm investment during the current transition process in Bulgaria. We use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in the case of Bulgaria. Our estimations are based on data for the period 1993-95, prior to the Bulgarian financial crisis in 1996-97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity constrained, and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity constrained. In our view, liquidity constraints can be given a different interpretation in the case of transition economies as compared to Western economies. A more in depth analysis of the data reveals that liquidity constraints, and consequently the access to external funds for Bulgarian firm investment, are to be seen against the background of soft-budget constraints and the failure of the financial system to enforce an efficient allocation of funds. In our view, the lack of liquidity constraints may actually be seen as a sign of financial weakness in the case of Bulgaria.