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Abstract:
We examine the risk and return characteristics of publicly-traded real estate companies from 14 countries over the period 1990 to 2001. Our data are monthly country-level commercial real estate indexes constructed by the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA). We find substantial variation in mean real estate returns and standard deviations across countries. Using various global and country-level factor models, we find that there is evidence of a strong global market risk component, measured relative to the Morgan Stanley Capital International world index, in most countries. However, even after controlling for the effects of global market risk, an orthogonalized country-specific market risk factor is highly significant, especially for real estate indexes in Asia-Pacific markets. We find that a country-specific value risk factor has some explanatory power in addition to the country-specific market factor, but U.S.-based market, value and size risk factors do not provide any additional explanatory power. These findings imply that the international diversification opportunities with real estate companies are more complex than previously thought.

Abstract:
The two main theories of capital structure are tested on a sample of 18 UK listed real estate companies, over a seven year period to 2004. Using dynamic specifications of the models inferences about firm financing behaviour can be made. Specifically: (1) Where firms turn to external financing, debt constitutes the majority of securities issued. Debt issuance tracks the need for external finance closely, and is robust to periods when firms run financing 'surpluses' - debt is paid down during these periods. (2) The pecking order specification dominates the trade-off theory in a direct comparison of the dynamic models. The power of this result is much higher than any previous studies. Real estate financing appears to sit comfortably as part of a broader capital structure framework in which information asymmetries drive firm financing behaviour.

Capital structure, pecking order, trade off theory, property companies, real estate.

Abstract:
This work analyzes the performance and diversification characteristics of European public real estate markets. There are three overall findings and one key observation. First, real estate has added significantly to overall portfolio outcomes in terms of increasing return and decreasing risk. Second, as found by others, real estate is a low beta investment and performs well during periods of market change - it was especially useful during the general market adjustment in 2000. Third, European real estate has performed very strongly since the 2000 stock market decline.

Finally, our assessment of why there is not more real estate in institutional portfolios requires an answer beyond examining just risk and return measures. This report will show that public real estate markets have provided strong performance for investors and warrant consideration for inclusion in institutional portfolios. Given these desirable characteristic it is likely that other features of the sector may have impacted on desired asset allocation (e.g liquidity, small market capitalisations, etc). Hence, the question of why institutions do not hold more real estate, is not about the attributes of return and risk per se, but about its legal form of ownership and the lack of market depth in terms of trading.

real estate, diversification benefits, europe

Abstract:
A recent paper by Knight, Satchell and Tran (1995) suggested that the double gamma distribution may provide an eective means of modelling asymmetry in financial data. This paper evaluates that claim in the context of the conditional distribution of exchange rate data. To do this, the model proposed by Knight, Satchell and Tran is first extended to incorporate conditional heteroscedasticity and is then applied to ten exchange rate series covering mature and emerging market countries.

A second contribution of this paper is to highlight the link between the double gamma distribution and the measurement of the second lower partial moment (or semi-variance). It is shown that the conditional semi-variance of a series can be easily calculated from the parameters of the double gamma distribution. The resulting empirical performance of the double gamma model is found to be mixed when compared to a symmetric GARCH-t model applied to a range of foreign exchange rates. Estimates of conditional downside risk based on the double gamma model were then constructed for each series. The results for the Malaysian Riggit, Zimbabwe Dollar and the Korean Won demonstrate the extreme downside volatility experienced by these countries during the recent emerging markets currency crisis.

Double-gamma, skewness, lower partial moments, garch

Abstract:
The role of selling (or marketing) period uncertainty in understanding risk associated with property investment is examined in this paper. Using an approach developed by Lin and Vandell [2001, 2005] and Lin [2004], combined with a statistical model of UK commercial property transactions, we show that the ex ante level of risk exposure for a commercial real estate investor is aroundone and a half times that obtained from historical statistics. The risk related to marketing time uncertainty can be reduced by constructing a portfolio. We find that at least 10 properties are necessary to reduce this risk, assuming independence between marketing period risk and price risk. These findings have important implications for mixed-asset portfolio allocation decisions.

liquidity risk, commercial real estate, time on market, transaction process, UK

Abstract:
The role of selling (or marketing) period uncertainty in understanding risk associated with property investment is examined in this paper. Using an approach developed by Lin and Vandell [2001, 2005] and Lin [2004], combined with a statistical model of UK commercial property transactions, we show that the ex ante level of risk exposure for a commercial real estate investor is around one and a half times that obtained from historical statistics. The risk related to marketing time uncertainty can be reduced by constructing a portfolio. We find that at least 10 properties are necessary to reduce this risk, assuming independence between marketing period risk and price risk. These findings have important implications for mixed-asset portfolio allocation decisions.

liquidity risk, commercial real estate

Abstract:
In this paper three econometric issues related to private-equity return indices, such as real estate indices, are explored (smoothing, nonsynchronous appraisal, and cross-sectional aggregation). Under certain assumptions, it is found that index returns based on appraisals follow an ARFIMA(0,d,1) process, where the long memory parameter (d) explains the level of smoothing and the MA parameter explains the nonsynchronous appraisal problem. The empirical results show that: 1) the level of smoothing in appraisal based real estate indices is far less than assumed in many academic studies; 2) nonsynchronous appraisal problem exists and becomes a more serious problem for higher frequency returns; and, 3) the level of volatility of real estate securities is higher than that recovered from an appraisal based index by around 50 percent. We interpret this difference as the level of noise in stock markets.

Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal, Long Memory

Abstract:
The behaviour of real estate markets during the 1997-98 financial crisis in Asian economies has received little attention despite the extensive research on other asset markets over this time. This paper examines the transmission of shocks across national real estate markets prior to and during the Asian crisis using a multivariate latent factor framework. The results reveal that diversification opportunities prior to the crisis are much reduced during the crisis. A comparison with regional equity markets shows that the transmission of shocks differs across the real estate and equity markets, providing evidence that investment in multiple asset classes provides some protection from large market downturns.

Latent factor, contagion, indirect estimation, real estate

Abstract:
In this paper we investigate whether fund managers investing in the direct real estate market can consistently maintain their performance. The question of whether the performance of fund managers persists over time has been the focus of a long line of research in financial economics. Surprisingly, despite its importance to property investors and fund managers, and the widely held view that real estate markets are "inefficient", there has been comparatively little research on the extent to which real estate fund managers can systematically and persistently deliver superior risk-adjusted returns. The research that has been published has tended to focus on the performance of managers trading public real estate securities. Our study draws on a unique data set of commercial real estate funds collated by the Investment Property Databank (IPD) in the United Kingdom. The widespread finding is that very few managers appear to be able to maintain consistency in their performance rankings.

commercial real estate investment, fund manager performance

Abstract:
In this article three econometric issues related to private-equity return indices, such as real estate indices, are explored (smoothing, nonsynchronous appraisal and cross-sectional aggregation). Under certain assumptions, it is found that index returns based on appraisals follow an ARFIMA(1, d, 1) (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) process, where the long memory parameter (d) explains the level of smoothing and the AR and MA parameters represent the level of persistence in marketwide fundamentals and the nonsynchronous appraisal, respectively. The empirical results show that: (1) the level of smoothing in appraisal-based real estate indices is far less than assumed in many academic studies (2) there is weak evidence of nonsynchronous appraisal in the UK, IPD (Investment Property Databank) index and (3) marketwide fundamentals are highly persistent for the IPD index returns. On the other hand, there is no evidence of nonsynchronous appraisal or a persistent common factor in the U.S. NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) index.

Abstract:
In this paper we investigate the commonly used autoregressive filter method of adjusting appraisal-based real estate returns to correct for the perceived biases induced in the appraisal process. Since the early work by Geltner (1989), many papers have been written on this topic but remarkably few have considered the relationship between smoothing at the individual property level and the amount of persistence in the aggregate appraised-based index. To investigate this issue in more detail we analyse a sample of individualproperty level appraisal data from the Investment Property Database (IPD). We find that commonly used unsmoothing estimates overstate the extent of smoothing that takes place at the individual property level. The is also strong support for an ARFIMA representation of appraisal returns.

Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal, Long Memory

Abstract:
Seminal work by Grenadier (1995) derived a set of hypotheses about the pricing of different lease lengths in different market conditions. Whilst there is a compelling theoretical case for and a strong intuitive expectation of differential pricing of different lease maturities, to date the empirical evidence is inconclusive. Drawing upon a substantial database of commercial lettings in central London (West End and City of London) over the last decade, we investigate the relationship between rent and lease maturity. In particular, we test whether building quality, credit risk and micro-location variables omitted in previous studies provide empirical results that are more consistent with the theoretical and intuitive a priori expectations. It is found that initial leases rates are upward sloping with the lease term and that this relationship is constant over time.

term structure of leases, office rents, London

Abstract:
The behavior of real estate markets during the 1997-1998 financial crisis in Asian economies has received little attention despite the extensive research on other asset markets over this time. This paper examines the transmission of shocks across national real estate markets prior to and during the Asian crisis using a multivariate latent factor framework. The results reveal that diversification opportunities prior to the crises are much reduced during the crisis. A comparison with regional equity markets shows that the transmission of shocks differs across the real estate and equity markets, providing evidence that investment in multiple asset classes provides some protection from large market downturns.

Latent factor, contagion, indirect estimation, real estate