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Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects on mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of the various structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulation results under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally, in Section 4 we analyze how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks use their own estimates of LGD (as in the "advanced" IRB approach), an increase in the sensitivity of banks' LGD due to the variation in PD over economic cycles is likely to follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities.

credit rating, capital requirements, credit risk, recovery rate, default, procyclicality

Abstract:
The question of which factors are relevant in determining corporate bonds pricing is empirically investigated by analyzing the issuance spreads of eurobonds completed by Canadian, European, Japanese and U.S. companies during the 1991-2001 eleven year period. A unique dataset of spreads, ratings and other relevant bond variables is used for a sample of 3,403 eurobonds issues. Four main results emerge from the empirical analysis. First, the ratings of corporate bonds are the most important determinant of spreads between the yield to maturity of bonds and that of equivalent Treasury securities. Second, bond investors' reliance on rating agencies judgements has increased over time during the sample period. Third, while a bond's expected tax treatment represents a relevant factor explaining spreads cross-sectional variability, the primary market efficiency and the expected secondary market liquidity appear as poor explanatory variables. Finally, empirical evidence shows that rating agencies adopt a different, "through the cycle" evaluation criteria of obligors' creditworthiness with respect to the forward looking one adopted by bond investors.

Eurobond, rating, spread, default risk

Abstract:
This paper analyses the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects of this relationship on the procyclicality of mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of the various structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulation results under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected an unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally, in Section 4 we analyse how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks are let free to use their own estimates of LGD (as in the advanced IRB approach), an increase in their sensitivity to economic cycles would follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (eg securitisations, credit derivatives, etc), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities.

credit rating, capital requirements, credit risk, recovery rate, default, procyclicality

Abstract:
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has recently tested credit risk measurement models used by large international banks to measure the risk of their portfolios in order to measure the risk of default of its insured banks' deposits. Using both balance sheet and equity market data for a sample of 15 large Italian banks, this study applies some of these models to value both individual and portfolio default risks for a deposit insurance agency. The empirical analysis allows to estimate the loss probability distribution which in turn can be used to: (i) evaluate the capital adequacy of the deposit insurance agency; (ii) estimate the marginal contribution to the whole portfolio risk of a single insured bank; (iii) identify a formula for deposit insurance pricing, as an alternative to the one based on option pricing models. Such a formula, based on a value-at-risk framework enables a more accurate risk quantification.

Credit Risk, Bank crisis, Deposit insurance, Value at Risk

Abstract:
We compare the performance and risk of a sample of 181 large banks from 15 European countries over the 1999-2004 period and evaluate the impact of alternative ownership models, together with the degree of ownership concentration, on their profitability, cost efficiency and risk. Three main results emerge. First, after controlling for bank characteristics, country and time effects, mutual banks and government-owned banks exhibit a lower profitability than privately-owned banks, in spite of their lower costs. Second, public sector banks have poorer loan quality and higher insolvency risk than other types of banks while mutual banks have better loan quality and lower asset risk than both private and public sector banks. Finally, while ownership concentration does not significantly affect a bank's profitability, a higher ownership concentration is associated with better loan quality, lower asset risk and lower insolvency risk. These differences, along with differences in asset composition and funding mix, indicate a different financial intermediation model for the different ownership forms.

European banking, Ownership, Governance, Performance

Abstract:
One of the major objectives of the 1988 Basel Accord was that of leveling the international playing field. While evaluating the contribution of the Accord remains a very difficult task because of the many factors involved, it is clear that relevant cross-country differences in the cost of equity capital for internationally active banks would significantly undermine the effectiveness of the current, and future evolvement of the Accord in pursuing this goal. This paper investigates this issue by comparing the cost of tier 1 capital of major banks from twelve countries over the 1993-2001 period. A new methodology based on the use of earnings' forecasts rather than historical earnings has been used to estimate banks' cost of equity. Three main results emerge from the empirical analysis. First, the estimated G-10 countries' major banks' average costs of equity have been decreasing during the nine years period from 1993 to 2001. Second, the differences between G-10 countries' average major banks' costs of equity have been steadily decreasing during the five years period from 1996 to 2001. Finally, multivariate regression results show that the individual banks' estimated costs of equity are strongly related to both microeconomic and macroeconomic variables. These results have relevant policy implications as far as the capital adequacy framework, currently undergoing a major reform process, is concerned.

Bank, cost of capital, bank regulation, capital ratios, earnings estimates

Abstract:
The question of whether private investors can discriminate between the risk taken by banks is empirically investigated by testing the risk sensitivity of European banks' subordinated notes and debentures (SND) spreads. A unique dataset of spreads, ratings and accounting measures of bank risk is used for a sample of SND issued during the 1991-2000:Q1 period. Moody's Bank Financial Strength (MBFS) and FitchIBCA Individual (FII) ratings, which omit the influence of government and other external support on risk borne by investors, are used as bank risk proxies together with accounting variables to explain the variability of spreads. Empirical results support the hypothesis that SND investors are sensitive to bank risk, with the exception of SND issued by public sector banks, i.e. government owned or guaranteed institutions. Results also show that the sensitivity of SND spreads to measures of stand-alone risk (i.e. measures that do not incorporate external guarantees) has been increasing from the first to the second part of the 1990s, with the perception of TBTF type guarantees by private investors gradually disappearing. This result can be attributed to the joint effect of the loss of monetary policy by national central banks and the public budget constraints imposed by the European Monetary Union (EMU).

Banks, bank regulation, market discipline, subordinated debt, credit ratings

Abstract:
The question of whether private investors can discriminate between the risk taken by banks is empirically investigated by testing the risk sensitivity of European banks? subordinated notes and debentures (SND) spreads. A unique dataset of spreads, ratings and accounting measures of bank risk is used for a sample of SND issued during the 1991-2000:Q1 period. Moody?s Bank Financial Strength (MBFS) and FitchIBCA Individual (FII) ratings, which omit the influence of government and other external support on risk borne by investors, are used as bank risk proxies together with accounting variables to explain the variability of spreads. Empirical results support the hypothesis that SND investors are sensitive to bank risk, with the exception of SND issued by public sector banks, i.e. government owned or guaranteed institutions. Results also show that the sensitivity of SND spreads to measures of stand-alone risk (i.e. measures that do not incorporate external guarantees) has been increasing from the first to the second part of the 1990s, with the perception of TBTF type guarantees by private investors gradually disappearing. This result can be attributed to the joint effect of the loss of monetary policy by national central banks and the public budget constraints imposed by the European Monetary Union (EMU).

Banks, bank regulation, market discipline, subordinated debt, credit ratings

Abstract:
During the last twenty years an increasing number of proposals to improve bank market discipline through the introduction of a mandatory subordinated debt policy (MSDP) have been presented and critically discussed by academic economists and bank regulators. While theoretical issues are key in this debate, a proper understanding of the market for banks' subordinated notes and debentures (SND) and the main features of securities is also considered relevant for the potential introduction, design and goals setting of such a policy. This paper builds on information concerning issuers, investors, markets, pricing and the technical features of securities to critically discuss these aspects. Data on over 1,800 European banks SND issues completed during the 1988-2000:Q1 period together with information on primary and secondary market functioning are presented.

bank, capital regulation, market discipline, subordinated debt

Abstract:
During the last twenty years an increasing number of proposals to improve bank market discipline through the introduction of a mandatory subordinated debt policy (MSDP) have been presented and critically discussed by academic economists and bank regulators. While theoretical issues are key in this debate, a proper understanding of the market for banks? subordinated notes and debentures (SND) and the main features of securities is also considered relevant for the potential introduction, design and goals setting of such a policy. This paper builds on information concerning issuers, investors, markets, pricing and the technical features of securities to critically discuss these aspects. Data on over 1,800 European banks SND issues completed during the 1988-2000:Q1 period together with information on primary and secondary market functioning are presented.

bank, capital regulation, market discipline, subordinated debt

Abstract:
Evidence from many countries in recent years suggests that collateral values and recovery rates on corporate defaults can be volatile and, moreover, that they tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This link between recovery rates and default rates has traditionally been neglected by credit risk models, as most of them focused on default risk and adopted static loss assumptions, treating the recovery rate either as a constant parameter or as a stochastic variable independent from the probability of default. This traditional focus on default analysis has been partly reversed by the recent significant increase in the number of studies dedicated to the subject of recovery rate estimation and the relationship between default and recovery rates. This paper presents a detailed review of the way credit risk models, developed during the last thirty years, treat the recovery rate and, more specifically, its relationship with the probability of default of an obligor. Recent empirical evidence concerning this issue is also presented and discussed.

credit rating, credit risk, recovery rate, default rate

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.) which depend on recovery rates as a key variable.

credit rating, capital requirements, credit risk, recovery rate, default, procyclicality

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.) which depend on recovery rates as a key variable.

credit rating, capital requirements, credit risk, recovery rate, default, procyclicality

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives) that depend on recovery rates as a key variable.

credit rating, capital requirements, credit risk, recovery rate, default, procyclicality

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregaterecovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g.,securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.) which depend on recovery rates as a key variable.

credit rating, capital requirements, credit risk, recovery rate, defaul, procyclicality

Abstract:
We evaluate the impact of government ownership on the issuer and individual ratings of a sample of 224 large European banks over the 1999-2004 period. Individual ratings differ from traditional ones in that they focus on banks' economic and financial conditions and do not take into account any external support from banks' owners, local or national governments, monetary authorities or other official institutions. Two main results emerge from our analysis. First, after controlling for accounting variables, government-owned banks have a better average issuer rating than privately owned ones, indicating that government-owned banks benefit from a lower cost of debt funding. Second, privately-owned banks have a lower risk of insolvency, as reflected in a better individual rating, than government-owned banks. This result, which remains even after controlling for banks' economic and financial conditions, indicates that government-owned banks benefit from a government protection mechanism in the form of explicit and/or implicit guarantees.

European banking, Ownership, Market Discipline, Credit Ratings

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects on mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of the various structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulation results under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally, in Section 4 we analyze how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks use their own estimates of LGD (as in the "advanced" IRB approach), an increase in the sensitivity of banks LGD due to the variation in PD over economic cycles is likely to follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects on mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of thevarious structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulationresults under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally,in Section 4 we analyze how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks use their own estimates of LGD (as in the â¬Sadvancedâ¬? IRB approach), an increase in the sensitivity ofbanksâ¬" LGD due to the variation in PD over economic cycles is likely to follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities.

credit rating, capital requirements, credit risk, recovery rate, default, procyclicality

Abstract:
While extensive research on the relationship between credit risk and spreads has been produced for bonds and loans separately, few studies have analyzed them jointly. We derive a simple structural model where a stochastic default barrier accounts for informational noise, and differences between bond and loan spreads are explained through the different screening ability of bankers and bond-holders. We then test the model on a sample of 7,926 Eurobonds and 5,469 syndicated loans. Empirical results confirm the key finding of the model: while spreads increase as ratings worsen for both bonds and loans, the former show a steeper spread/rating relationship.

Eurobonds, syndicated loans, credit ratings, spreads, default risk

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives) that depend on recovery rates as a key variable.

credit rating, capital requirements, credit risk, recovery rate, default, procyclicality

Abstract:
We evaluate the impact of government ownership on the issuer and individual ratings of a sample of 224 large European banks over the 1999-2004 period. Individual ratings differ from traditional ones in that they focus on banks' economic and financial conditions and do not take into account any external support from banks' owners, local or national governments, monetary authorities or other official institutions. Two main results emerge from our analysis. First, after controlling for accounting variables, government-owned banks have a better average issuer rating than privately owned ones, indicating that government-owned banks benefit from a lower cost of debt funding. Second, privately-owned banks have a lower risk of insolvency, as reflected in a better individual rating, than government-owned banks. This result, which remains even after controlling for banks' economic and financial conditions, indicates that government-owned banks benefit from a government protection mechanism in the form of explicit and/or implicit guarantees

European banking, Ownership, Market Discipline, Credit Ratings

Abstract:
Evidence from many countries in recent years suggests that collateral values and recovery rates (RRs) on corporate defaults can be volatile and, moreover, that they tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This link between RRs and default rates has traditionally been neglected by credit risk models, as most of them focused on default risk and adopted static loss assumptions, treating the RR either as a constant parameter or as a stochastic variable independent from the probability of default (PD). This traditional focus on default analysis has been partly reversed by the recent significant increase in the number of studies dedicated to the subject of recovery-rate estimation and the relationship between default and RRs. This paper presents a detailed review of the way credit risk models, developed during the last 30 years, treat the RR and, more specifically, its relationship with the PD of an obligor. Recent empirical evidence concerning this issue is also presented and discussed.

Abstract:
We evaluate the impact of government ownership on the issuer and individual ratings of a sample of 224 large European banks over the 1999-2004 period. Individual ratings differ from traditional ones in that they focus on banks’ economic and financial conditions and do not take into account any external support from banks’ owners, local or national governments, monetary authorities or other official institutions. Two main results emerge from our analysis. First, after controlling for accounting variables, government-owned banks have a better average issuer rating than privately owned ones, indicating that government-owned banks benefit from a lower cost of debt funding. Second, privately-owned banks have a lower risk of insolvency, as reflected in a better individual rating, than government-owned banks. This result, which remains even after controlling for banks’ economic and financial conditions, indicates that government-owned banks benefit from a government protection mechanism in the form of explicit and/or implicit guarantees.

European banking, Ownership, Market Discipline, Credit Ratings

Abstract:
The Basel Committee designed a system of risk weights ("standardised approach") to measure the riskiness of banks' loan portfolios. We investigate its ability to adequately reflect risk through an analysis of the economic capital implied in corporate bond spreads. This is based on a dataset of issuance spreads, ratings and other relevant bond variables including 7,232 eurobonds issued by an internationally-diversified sample during 1991-2003. Three main results emerge: the spread/rating relationship is strongly significant; the estimated spreads per rating class indicate a steeper risk/rating relationship than the one approved by the Basel Committee; no significant difference appears in the spread/rating relation of banks and non-financial firms issuers.

eurobonds, credit ratings, spreads, structural models, capital regulation, deposit insurance, banks