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Abstract:
Many studies have addressed the effect of migration on both home and host countries, but few have focused on the effect of the economic flows derived from migration, especially for the Central and East European (CEE) countries. In this paper we analyze the effect of remittances on employment performance for CEE economies. To model the macro effects of remittances on the source country we proceed along the lines of Mancellari et al (1996) who extended the model of Aghion and Blanchard (1994) by adding migration. The impact of remittances on unemployment depends on its effect on productivity growth and entrepreneurial investment. In order to empirically analyze the impact of remittances we estimated a productivity equation using a set of 11 transition countries during the 1990-1999 period. We also analyze the impact of remittances on investment and consumption. Our results show support for the view that remittances have a positive impact on productivity and employment both directly and indirectly through its effect on investment.

Unemployment, migration, remittances

Abstract:
The derivation of the Balassa-Samuelson effect allows for different empirical specifications that may have important economic implications. Problems related to spurious regression could arise from the mixed order of integration of the series used and from the lack of a long run stable relationship among the variables of the model. This paper addresses these problems by using the bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1999). Our empirical results do not show supportive evidence for the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the long run. This seems to suggest that PPP holds. However, one of the implications of PPP is that the real exchange rate does not have any real impact on the economy. Further empirical analysis rejects this implication. In fact, the real exchange rate seems to have a long run impact on relative growth rates.

Real Exchange Rate, Output, Causality

Abstract:
There is considerable debate regarding the relative contribution of international migrants' remittances to sustainable economic development. While the rates and levels of officially recorded remittances to developing countries has increased enormously over the last decade, academic and policy-oriented research has not come to a consensus over whether remittances contribute to longer-term growth by building human and financial capital or degrade long-run growth by creating labor substitution and "Dutch disease" effects. This paper suggests that contradictory findings have emerged when looking at the remittances-growth link because previous studies have not correctly controlled for endogeneity. Using Dynamic Data Panel estimates we find that remittances exert a weakly positive impact on long-term macroeconomic growth. The paper also considers the proposition that the longer-term developmental impact of remittances is increased in the presence of sound economic policies and institutions.

International migration, remittances, growth, institutions

Abstract:
Evidence is presented on the Real Interest Parity Hypothesis for a set of emerging and developed countries. This is done by carrying out a set of unit-root tests on the real interest differentials with respect to Germany and the US. Our results support the hypothesis of a rapid reversion towards a zero differential for developed countries and towards a positive one for emerging markets. An important result is that this adjustment tends to be highly asymmetric and markedly different for developed and emerging countries. Our evidence reveals a high degree of market integration for developed countries and highlights the importance of risk premia for emerging markets.

Real Interest Rate Differentials, Market Integration, Unit Roots, Asymmetric adjustment

Abstract:
We analyse the consequences of US real interest rate rises on the real exchange rate (RER) in a two-good overlapping generations model of a semi-small open economy. The equilibrium RER depreciates (appreciates) when the world interest rate increases in a debtor (creditor) country. We then study empirically the reaction of the RER in a set of South East Asian (SEA) countries to shocks in US real interest rates. The results support the conclusions of the theory model at least for Singapore, Thailand and South Korea during the period 1980-2001.

Real exchange rate, overlapping generations, world interest rate shock

Abstract:
We revisit the debate on the sustainability of the current account dynamics in the US. Using the concept of sustainability as the ability to meet the long run intertemporal budget constraint, we test for unit roots in the US current account for the 1960-2004 period. We argue that there are several reasons to believe that the current account may follow a non-linear behavior under the null of stationarity. This is confirmed by a set of non-linearity tests. We then fit an ESTAR model to the current account dynamics and reject the null of non-stationarity. Hence, we conclude in favor of sustainability. Furthermore, our results reveal that only for the period 1974-1992 we can find significant deviations of the current account from equilibrium and a slower speed of mean reversion.

Current account sustainability, stationarity, non-linear models

Abstract:
Recent empirical literature on trade performance has emphasised the role played by domestic R&D in boosting international competitiveness. These models, based on technology-related theories of trade, find empirical support for this hypothesis. In this paper we go further and test whether trading partners' R&D has a positive effect on domestic exports through trade-related international R&D spillovers. We find support for the hypothesis that R&D spillovers increase competitiveness of the trading partners. This has important implications for recent theories of growth that emphasise the role of international trade as the main factor promoting technology diffusion and growth.

R&D spillovers, export functions, panel cointegration.

Abstract:
This paper applies the panel unit root test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) to test for unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results show that hysteresis for the EU and the natural rate for the US states are the most plausible hypotheses.

Unemployment Hysteresis, Unit Roots, Panel Tests

Abstract:
This paper applies the panel unit root test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) to test for unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results show that hysteresis for the EU and the natural rate for the US states are the most plausible hypotheses.

Unemployment Hysteresis, Unit Roots, Panel Tests

Abstract:
Empirical studies on aggregate export behavior have recently emphasized the role played by innovation as the main force driving product differentiation and competitiveness for developed countries. These studies treat foreign innovation as a variable that affects negatively national export shares. We incorporate the impact of foreign innovation in a standard new trade theory model and find that, if knowledge spillovers exist, foreign knowledge accumulation could even have a positive effect on national exports. We then test the model using aggregate export data for a set of 21 OECD economies and find that the foreign stock of knowledge affects exports positively for the less advanced countries in the sample and has no impact on exports for the G7 economies.

knowledge spillovers, product differentiation, export functions, panel cointegration

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the empirical relevance of real convergence on the process of nominal convergence for the new EU Member States. We discuss two of the main channels through which real convergence could affect relative prices with respect to the euro area: productivity growth and increased trade openness. Productivity growth can have a positive effect on price levels via the Balassa-Samuelson effect, whereas increased openness leads to reductions in mark-ups and costs and therefore can have a negative impact on prices. In order to assess their empirical relevance, we used a Structural VAR model to which we applied a model reduction algorithm. This method accounts for endogeneity and simultaneity and circumvents the problem of limited data availability. Our findings show that, in general, openness has had a negative impact and productivity growth a positive one on price level convergence with respect to the euro area.

real convergence, nominal convergence, inflation, new EU Member States

Abstract:
The intertemporal substitution model of labor supply has been based on closed economy models. This paper studies the intertemporal substitution hypothesis in an open economy. It derives the long run labor supply as a function of the real wage, real interest rate and real exchange rate from a standard open economy optimizing representative agent model. The paper tests the steady state solution of the model for the US and, in order to avoid the Lucas critique, it tests for the superexogeneity of the interest rate and exchange rate. In accordance with the theory, the empirical evidence is supportive of the intertemporal substitution hypothesis, the significant impact of the real exchange rate, and is robust to the Lucas critique.

Intertemporal substitution, Labor supply, Interest rate, Exchange rate

Abstract:
In this paper we argue that both statistics and economic theory-based evidence largely indicate the absence of long run relationships between the real output and the most relevant monetary indicator for the U.K. and the U.S, short term interest rates. These findings are not only a full sample result, but also valid in most of the sub-samples throughout the second half of the 20th century and are robust to the inclusion of possible omitted real variables.

information value, long term relationship, cointegration, bounds tests

Abstract:
Work ethics affects labor supply. This idea is modeled assuming that work is habit forming. This paper introduces working habits in a neoclassical growth model and compares its outcomes with a model without habit formation. In addition, it analyzes the impact of different forms of technical progress. The findings are that i) labor supply in the habit formation case is higher than in the neoclassical case; ii) unlike in the neoclassical case, labor supply in the presence of habit formation will depend on the kind of technical progress experienced by the economy and iii) the kind of technical progress will hence affect the steady state levels of consumption, capital stock and output.

labour supply, habit formation, work ethics, technological progress

Abstract:
We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and non-linear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria: if it remains locked into a new level whenever a structural change occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.

Unemployment, Hysteresis, Unit Root, Transition, Markov Switching

Abstract:
In this paper we address the following important question: would a fully integrated world economy eliminate the widely reported decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities? We address the question by looking at the terms of trade (ToT) within the US (a highly integrated economy). Our findings show two results. First, US internal real commodities' ToT over the 1947-1998 period experienced slowly declining but significant trends. Second, once we control for the effect of US prices on international internal ToT, we find a long-run relationship between the US and international relative prices. These findings support the view that the decline of commodities' terms of trade bears no relationship with the process of globalisation. This seems to indicate that, if world ToT behaved as the US internal ToT, neither increased integration nor protectionist measures would eliminate this trend.

Economic Integration, Globalisation, Prebisch-Singer

Abstract:
We carry out a meta-analysis on the frequency of unit-roots in macroeconomic time series with a dataset covering 249 variables for the G7 countries. We use linear tests and the three popular non-linear tests (TAR, ESTAR and Markov Switching). In general, the evidence in favour of the random walk hypothesis is weaker than in previous studies. This evidence against unit roots is stronger for real and nominal asset prices. Our results show that rejection of the null of a unit root in the macro dataset is substantially higher for non-linear than linear models. Finally, the results from a Monte Carlo experiment show that rejection frequencies are very close to the nominal size of the test when the DGP is a linear unit root process. This leads us to reject the hypothesis that overfitting deterministic components explains the higher rejection frequencies of nonlinear tests.

overfitting, nonlinear models, unit root

Abstract:
Despite being critical parameters in many economic fields, the received wisdom, in theoretical and empirical literatures, states that joint identification of the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and technical bias is infeasible. This paper challenges that pessimistic interpretation. Putting the new approach of "normalized" production functions at the heart of a Monte Carlo analysis we identify the conditions under which identification is feasible and robust. The key result is that the jointly modeling the production function and first-order conditions is superior to single-equation approaches in terms of robustly capturing production and technical parameters, especially when merged with "normalization". Our results will have fundamental implications for production-function estimation under non-neutral technical change, for understanding the empirical relevance of normalization and the variability underlying past empirical studies.

Constant Elasticity of Substitution, Factor-Augmenting Technical Change, Normalization, Factor Income share, Identification, Monte Carlo

Abstract:
This paper applies the panel unit root test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) to test for unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results show that hysteresis for the EU and the natural rate for the US states are the most plausible hypotheses.

Abstract:
Empirical evidence suggests that real exchange rates (RER) behave differently in developed and developing countries. We develop an exogenous 2-sector growth model in which RER determination depends on the country's capacity to borrow from international capital markets. The country faces a constraint on capital inflows. With high domestic savings, the country converges to the world per capita income and RER only depends on productivity spread between sectors (Balassa-Samuelson effect). If the constraint is too tight and/or domestic savings too low, RER depends on both net foreign assets (transfer effect) and productivity. We then analyze the empirical implications of the model and find that, in accordance with the theory, RER is mainly driven by productivity and net foreign assets in constrained countries and exclusively by productivity in unconstrained countries.

Real exchange rate, capital inflows constraint, overlapping generations

Abstract:
Work ethics affect labour supply. This idea is modelled assuming that work is habit forming. We introduce working habits in a neoclassical growth model and compare its outcomes with a model without habit formation. In addition, we analyse the impact of different forms of technical progress. The findings are that (i) labour supply in the habit formation case is higher than in the neoclassical case; (ii) unlike in the neoclassical case, labour supply in the presence of habit formation depends on the kind of technical progress; and (iii) the kind of technical progress will hence affect the steady-state levels of consumption, capital stock and output.

Abstract:
In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear 'Hysteresis' as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria, that is, if it remains locked into a new level whenever some structural change or sufficiently large shock occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit-root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business-cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.

Abstract:
In this paper we address the following question: would a fully integrated world economy eliminate the widely reported decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities? We address the question by looking at the terms of trade within the US (a highly integrated economy). Our findings show two results. First, US internal real commodities' terms of trade over the 1947-1998 period experienced slowly declining but significant trends. Second, once we control for the effect of US prices on international terms of trade, we find a long-run relationship between the US and international relative prices. These findings support the view that the decline of commodities' terms of trade bears no relationship with the process of globalisation. This seems to indicate that, if world terms of trade behaved as the US terms of trade, neither increased integration nor protectionist measures would eliminate this trend.

Economic integration, Globalisation, Prebisch-Singer