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Abstract:
In a recent work, Ivanov and Webster (2007) present a methodology for measuring the contribution of tourism to economic growth and apply this methodology to the cases of Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The method uses the growth of real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth and disaggregates it into economic growth generated by tourism and economic growth generated by other industries. Our paper selects a group of Latin-Americans countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Mexico. This allows us to establish a first comparison based on geographical parameters (European countries vs. Latin American countries). Whilst Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay present a profile where tourism industry has a smaller weight on GDP (2,5%; 1,5%; 1,6%, respectively) in Mexico the tourism contribution to GDP is about 4,8%.

tourism impacts, economic growth, GDP

Abstract:
In this paper we describe the evolution of the cruise tourism industry and we analyze different impacts on tourism destinations of this segment of the travel industry. The study includes the discussion of economic, social, environmental, cultural and political effects. We present data to analyze and compare the performance of the main cruise destinations and cruise lines. Analysis and data are based mainly on a selection of information taken from different official worldwide reports (OMT, CTO), press releases and previous studies. The economic impact is estimated from tourist expenditure and local information. Environmental impacts are compiled from historical and current data. We also describe different activities related to the cruise ship industry to identify costs and benefits to different actors of the local economies. From the analysis, we discuss some stylized facts about the cruise ship industry and we show that some optimist evaluations of local decision makers are not completely true.

Cruise Ship Tourism, Socio-Economic Impact, Environmental Impact

Abstract:
In this paper we investigate the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Colombia. We first use the growth of real GDP per capita disaggregating it into economic growth generated by tourism and by other industries. This measure gives information of past performance of tourism in Colombia indicating the fraction of the growth of real GDP that corresponds to tourism activities. Secondly, we analyse the effects of tourism expenditure in Colombia by using quarterly data and the Johansen cointegration test. We show empirical evidence suggesting the existence of one cointegrated vector among real per capita GDP, Colombian tourism expenditure and real exchange rate, where the latter two variables are weakly exogenous to the model. The Granger causality test suggests causality that positively generates in one way from tourism expenditure to real GDP per capita.

tourism impacts, economic growth, GDP, cointegration test, causality test

Abstract:
This paper explores a recent method for measuring the tourism contribution to an economy's performance and compares it with others methodologies. The method uses the rate of growth of real per capita GDP and disaggregates it into a growth component that can be imputed to tourism and growth generated by other industries. It is applied to two groups of countries, one including economies with established destinations like Spain, France, Italy, UK and USA, and a group of Latin American with emerging tourism destinations. The comparison between those groups shows that the tourism contribution to GDP is higher for the first group but it is not associated necessarily with a greater contribution to the economy's growth. Keywords: tourism economic impacts; growth performance.

tourism impacts, growth performance, rate of growth

Abstract:
Cruise tourism generates an estimated $18 billion a year in passenger expenditure and has been the fastest growing sector of the travel industry for the past twenty years with an average annual growth rate of passengers of 7.4%. It has increased at almost twice the rate of growth of tourism overall and this growth is expected to continue in the future. The North American cruise industry is the dominant in this market with 12 million of passengers embarked in the US ports. The Caribbean region, continue being the most preferred cruise destination; according to FCCA statistics, accounting for 41.02% of all itineraries. The cruise passenger arrivals in the Caribbean region increased from 3 million in 1980 to more than 25 million in 2007. Cruise tourism can provide economic benefits to a local economy but the impacts of this activity are not well understood and have been neglected in the literature. In this paper the social, cultural, political economic and environmental impacts of cruise tourism are estimated. We describe the evolution of the cruise tourism industry and we review the experiences of different tourism cruise destinations. We present data to analyze and compare the performance of the main cruise destinations and cruise lines. We also describe different activities associated to the cruise ship industry to identify costs and benefits for the actors of the local economies. A case study is used to illustrate cost and benefits and the different impacts of cruises. This study aims to provide a critical viewpoint of how tourism destinations are transformed by the arrival of an increasing number of cruises.

cruise industry, economic impact, environmental impact

Abstract:
In a recent work, Ivanov and Webster (2007) present a methodology for measuring the contribution of tourism to economic growth and apply this methodology to the cases of Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The method uses the growth of real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth and disaggregates it into economic growth generated by tourism and economic growth generated by other industries. Our paper selects the group of countries with larger numbers of visitors, including Spain, France, Italy, UK and USA. This allows us to establish a first comparison based on geographical parameters since in Brida et al (2007) the same methodology was applied to different Latin American countries.

tourism impacts, economic growth, GDP

Abstract:
Argentine is the principal source of tourism in the Uruguayan case. Its effects in the economic growth is analyzed in the present paper by using quarterly data from 1987.I to 2006.IV. Co-integration analysis shows the existence of one cointegrated vector among real per capita GDP, Argentinean tourism expenditure, and real exchange rate between Uruguay and Argentine. Granger-causality test suggests that causality positively goes in one way from expenditure to real per capita GDP.

economic growth, tourism earnings, Johansen cointegration, test, Granger causality

Abstract:
In this paper I describe and apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) to an experimental framework. The idea behind Symbolic Time Series Analysis is simple: the values of a given time series data are transformed into a finite set of symbols obtaining a finite string. Then, we can process the symbolic sequence using tools from information theory and symbolic dynamics. I discuss data symbolization as a tool for identifying temporal patterns in experimental data and use symbol sequence statistics in a model strategy. In this application the data symbolization is based on economic criteria using the notion of economic regime.

Qualitative Data, Symbolic Time Series, Symbolic Dynamics, Economic Regime

Abstract:
This paper reformulates the neoclassical Solow model of economic growth in discrete time by introducing a generic population growth law that verifies the following properties: 1) population is strictly increasing and bounded; 2) the rate of growth of population is decreasing to zero as time tends to infinity. We show that in the long run the capital per worker of the model converges to the non-trivial steady state of the Solow-Swan model with zero labor growth rate. In addition we prove that the solutions of the model are asymptotically stable.

Solow model, discrete time, population model

Abstract:
In this short paper we analyze the impact of tourist demand in hotel rooms on the investment of hotels on environmental quality. In particular we show that when income of the tourists increases, then in order to maintain the demand for rooms, the hotels must increase the investment on the environmental quality of the region where there is an increment of the tourist activity. In the particular case where we have three different hotel chain located in three different tourist regions, we show that the incentive of hotel chains to invest in environmental quality depends on the demand in days of rest on the part of tourists and on the level of aggregate income. We also show that if total income increase then the incentive to invest in environmental quality increases in the region where the price of room is lower.

Environmental investment, Hotelling competition, service quality, sustainable tourism

Abstract:
Tourism is one of the most important factors in the productivity of the Mexican economy with significant multiplier effects on economic activity. This paper investigates possible causal relationships between tourism expenditure, real exchange rate and economic growth by using quarterly data. Johansen co-integration analysis shows the existence of one cointegrated vector among real GDP, tourism expenditure, and real exchange rate where the corresponding elasticities are positive. The tourism-led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing. Expenditure is weakly exogenous to real GDP producing a more than proportional effect in growth (it means real GDP increases 60% more when expenditure in tourism is increased). Short-run Granger causality shows that causality goes from expenditure to GDP, and there is a bidirectional short-run causality between real exchange rate and real GDP. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock in expenditure produce a continuous positive effect on growth while a shock in real exchange rate produces first a negative effect and then a positive one.

economic growth, earnings by tourism, Johansen cointegration, Granger causality

Abstract:
In this short paper we present a simple model of three tourist regions to study the incentives of hotels to invest in environmental quality. In particular, we show that the price of a hotel room depends positively on the level of investment to preserve the natural characteristics of the region and negatively on the relative investments of the other regions. In this sense, we show that to maintain the tourist demand for rooms the hotels must invest continuously in environmental quality. Regions with low investment in preserving environmental quality have a high probability of disappearing as a tourist destination. We also show that the incentive to invest in environmental quality is a decreasing function of the number of hotels located in a particular region and that the incentive of hotel chains to invest in environmental quality is dependent on whether they are local or international.

Environmental investment, tourism demand, circular city

Abstract:
International tourism is an important foreign exchange earner and an export for many low income countries as well as for developed ones. Nowadays many developing countries pay attention to economic policies for promoting international tourism as a potential strategic factor to development and economic growth. The tourism-led economic growth hypothesis (TLGH) postulates that tourism expansion leads to economic growth. It derives directly from the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) which states that the economic growth of countries can be generated not only by increasing the amount of labour and capital within the economy, but also expanding exports. Actually, exports generally contribute positively to economic growth through different ways: facilitating the exploitation of economies of scale, relieving the foreign exchange constraint, raising efficiency through increased competition and promoting the diffusion of technical knowledge.
In this paper we examine the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Chile. The objective is to investigate possible causal relationships among tourism expenditure, real exchange rate and economic growth using quarterly data from 1986 to 2007. We try to find a plausible answer to the question: "Does the tourism sector cause economic growth and/or can it be a key factor for the Chilean economy?". The hypothesis is tested empirically by using the Johansen cointegration test. In addition, a modified version of the Granger Causality test is performed in order to reveal the direction of causality between economic growth and tourism expansion. The results indicate that, during the last decades, economic growth in Chile has been sensible to the expansion of international tourism. The increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time. Recognition of the existence of a causal relationship between international tourism and economic growth has important implications for the development of different tourism marketing and policy decisions. In order to improve its economic growth performance, Chile, as empirical results support a tourism-led economic growth, should allocate more resources to tourism and travel industries prior to other segments.

economic growth; tourism development; Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality

Abstract:
One of the key elements in any standard economic growth theory is that population growth exponentially at a constant rate n > 0. This simple model can provide an adequate approximation to such growth only for the initial period because, growing exponentially, population approaches infinity when t goes to infinity, which is clearly unrealistic. The exponential model does not accommodate growth reductions due to competition for environmental resources such as food and habitat. In this paper we reformulate the neoclassical Solow model of economic growth by assuming that the law describing population growth verifies two stilized facts: 1) population is strictly increasing and bounded and 2) the rate of growth of population is strictly decreasing to zero. The main result of the paper is the proof of the convergence of capital per worker to a constant value independently of the initial condition. This constant value coincides with the steady state of the original Solow model with zero population growth rate.

Solow model, population models

Abstract:
In standard economic growth theory it is assumed that labour force follows exponential growth, a not realistic assumption. As described in, for example, Maynard Smith, Ref. 1, the growth of natural populations is more accurately depicted by a logistic growth law. This paper analyzes how neoclassic Solow-Swan model, see Ref. 2 and Ref. 3, is affected by logistic growth of population, comparing it with classic malthusian model. We show that with the logistic law, the intrinsic rate of population growth plays no role in determining long run equilibrium per worker level of capital. In addition, we tackle the stability of the model setting off its long run equilibrium against the steady state of the traditional one.

Solow-Swan model, logistic growth law

Abstract:
In this paper we empirically analyze the phenomena of indebtedness of the main companies belonging to the Spanish hotel industry. In particular, we introduce a method to analyze the structure and dynamics of the largest companies in this sector. The method combines the Pearson correlation coefficient with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm (Mantegna, 1999). Pearson correlation coefficient allows to obtain a metric distance between two different multidimensional time series that is used to construct a Minimal Spanning Tree. From this tree we can compute an ultrametric distance that is used to derive the Hierarchical Tree. From the analysis of time series data of companies included in the SABI Iberian Balance Sheet Analysis System, we derive a hierarchical organization of the Spanish hotels. In particular, we detect different dynamic clusters of companies which correspond with their common production and indebtedness strategies. The obtained classification of companies can also be used to study deep relationships among this branch of tourisms activities.

Minimal Spanning Tree, Cluster Analysis, Financing decisions, Indebtedness, Hotel industry

Abstract:
In this paper, we review the basic notions and definitions of economic regime and regime switching. The purpose of this review is to describe how these notions appear implicitly or explicitly in different areas of the economic literature. We will not claim to offer a complete survey. The goal is to identify the basic themes that are common across the many sub-fields of the literature in which the concept is applied, and to develop a common terminology.

Economic Regimes, Regime Dynamics.

Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to show that the incentive of hotel chains to invest in environmental quality depends on the demand in days of rest on the part of tourists and on the level of aggregate income. The framework is based on the theoretical model of horizontal differentiation a la Hotelling introduced in [5]. We modify this model by introducing a demand function for tourism commodities. We show that an increase on total income incentives hotel chains in the regions whit higher demand to invest in environmental quality.

Environmental investment, hotel chain, Hotelling competition, sustainable tourism

Abstract:
We consider an extensive form game to analyze the interdependence between environmental protection of resources, the activities related with the tourism and the behavior of a local population. We answer two questions: 1) Suppose that the central planner invest in tourist activities, has he incentives to do an aggressive propagandistic campaign to convince the tourist to come for the country? 2) How good is from the environmental point of view that the local inhabitants prefer to work in tourist activities? So we analyze the situation when it's possible to obtain a sustainable tourism in a country such that the tourism is the main economic activity.

imperfect information, mixed strategies, repeated game, sustainable tourism

Abstract:
International tourism, on which we focus in this paper, is recognized to contribute to long-run growth through a whole list of diverse channels. This belief that tourism can promote, if not, plainly, cause long-run growth is known in the literature as the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH). Our case study of Brazil can also be taken as a particular test for such hypothesis. In our twofold empirical exercise, two different econometric methodologies are applied to two distinct data sets showing, among other things, that results are independent of either data or methodology. On the one hand, annual data from 1965 to 2007 for Brazil as a whole are used for a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The relationship among the variables that we find, can be considered as weakly exogenous, but the test does not support Granger-causality. On the other hand, high quality data for the 27 Brazilian states though for a shorter period, from 1990-2005, allows for the use of the dynamic panel data model proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991). We show that the long-run elasticities between real per capita GDP with respect to tourism receipts and the real rate of exchange are 0.13 and 0.30, respectively. Finally, we compare our results with similar studies also investigating the TLGH showing a relationship between the value of the elasticity of per capita GDP with respect to tourism and the levels of development of tourism in each particular country.

tourism development, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality

Abstract:
The present paper argues that, in line with Nelson-Phelps (1966), there exist important complementarities among educational attainment, R&D activities (and their derived innovations) and economic growth, although subject to a "skill-loss effect" (δ-effect), due to the presence of workers who have to perform jobs that require other capacities than the ones they have. Taking Redding's (1996) formal framework, the main result of our model suggests that the more distorted the labour market is, the stronger must be the investment in R&D necessary to attain a positive economic growth rate.

endogenous growth, human capital, education

Abstract:
In standard economic growth theory it is assumed that labor force follows exponential growth, a not realistic assumption. As described in [4] the growth of natural populations is more accurately depicted by a logistic growth law. In this paper we analyze how the Ramsey growth model is affected by logistic growth of population, comparing it with the classic Ramsey model. We show that there is a unique nontrivial steady state of the model and that the parameters of the logistic equation play no role in determining long run equilibrium per worker level of consumption and capital. In addition, we study the stability of the model showing that its nontrivial equilibrium is is a saddle point.

Ramsey model, population growth, logistic equation

Abstract:
Tourism demand in Mexico is around 80 percent represented by USA visitors. The goal of this paper is to explain the long-term effects of Tourism Demand in Mexico with respect to US visitors. To reach our goal the methodology of this paper follows the Johansen cointegration analysis and using annual time-series data, a single equation is estimated. With the empirical analyze, we study the tourism demand elasticities considering public investment, relative prices of tourist products, and US income per capita. Further analysis shows only one direction of a strongly positive Granger-causality going from number of tourists to the relative prices. We show that US income positively affects the Mexican tourism demand.

tourism demand modeling, public investment on tourism, economics of tourism, Johansen cointegration test

Abstract:
The growth of the tourism sector in the last years, and in particular of the accommodation industry, has increased the importance of investment on the quality of tourism services. In this respect, the environmental quality of destination, has become a tool that hotels have to hold the tourism demand. In this paper we are going to present a model of vertical differentiation in the accommodation industry, where differentiation is associated with quality. Additionally, we assume the existence of a lump sum tax in the accommodation industry. Two are the main results which will be proved in this article; first, if the tourist's willingness to pay for quality increases then both the demand and the price for tourism services increase as a result. However, the increment of the demand for best environmental quality gets higher, and therefore, the environmental quality level of tourism services, that the destination offers, decreases. Second, an increase in the value of the tourism tax leads to an increase in the total environmental quality of the destination. Thus, taxation is a policy instrument which maintains the environmental quality of a tourism destination, but its efficiency depends, according to this model, on the value of the tourist's willingness to pay for environmental quality, or similar, on their incomes.

duopoly, tourism demand, hotel service quality, environment

Abstract:
In this paper we combine the Symbolic Time Series methods (Daw et. al., 2003) with the nearest neighbour single linkage clustering algorithm (Mantegna, 1999) to describe dynamics and structure of a set of stocks. We start with a partition of the time series state space; we label each piece of the partition by a symbol and convert the original time series into a symbolic sequence. Then we introduce a metric distance between two symbolic time series that is used to construct a Minimal Spanning Tree permitting to compute an ultrametric distance. By analyzing the data, we derive a hierarchical organization. From this analysis we can detect different clusters of companies according to their proximity which correspond with their common behaviour. The obtained classification can be used to analyze deep relationships among different branch of economic activities and can be a tool in portfolio construction.

Symbolic Time Series Analysis, Financial Asset Returns, hierarchical tree

Abstract:
In this paper a new approach to the analysis of the dynamics of economies is presented; applications to time series will also be suggested. In such applications, computational experiments may play a central role to provide a different heuristics and to explore data information. The approach is based upon ideas emerging in the literature on complex and chaotic dynamics, which imply that one can no longer rely on the fine description of classical dynamical systems: the state space structure breaks down, and instead of simple orbits, we should be satisfied with a description based upon symbolic trajectories, each symbol being associated with a partition of the original state space. Such partition can be induced by the introduction of the qualitative notion of regimes and of regime dynamics as a dynamics allowing for regime shifts. It can otherwise be suggested by preliminary data screening. Starting from a pre-set model, a regime is a set of dynamical paths generated by the same ?canonical model? with parameters. By identifying bifurcation values in the parameter space, one can classify a finite collection of realizations of such canonical model. A symbolic dynamical model reproduces dynamics across such sets of realisations, and can be tested against available empirical data. A preliminary exploration of some simple models yielding a finite (low-)number of regimes with a complex cross-regimes dynamics is presented, to motivate the move towards a discrete space dynamics and as a step towards the building of a general approach to multidimensional dynamical models.

Economic Regime, Regime Dynamics, Coded Dynamics, Symbolic Dynamics

Abstract:
Enormous quantity of information affects stock returns every day producing their almost random behavior. Nonetheless some information can be recovered by using symbolic methods and constructing Minimal Spanning Trees (MST) and Hierarchical Trees (HT). The introduced method is applied to the main German Companies which appear in the DAX30 index. A structural topology is constructed for this stock market in normal and extreme situations. In addition we detect that German companies tend to integrate in the market.

Symbolic Time Series Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Financial Asset Returns

Abstract:
Financial Markets can be modeled as complex systems. The Hugh quantity and different information affecting these markets is a remarked characteristic. However some of this information can be recover by constructing a topology of the market. We develop a symbolic method in order to study relationships in the financial markets by constructing Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) and Hierarchical Tree (HT). Method is successfully applied to the Italian Financial market detecting clusters with economic sense. This classification is helpful in portfolio construction and studying industrial networks.

Symbolic Time Series Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Financial Asset Returns

Abstract:
In this paper we introduce a new method to describe dynamical patterns of the real exchange rate movements time series and to analyze contagion in currency crisis. The method combines the tools of Symbolic Time Series Analysis with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm. Data symbolization allows to obtain a metric distance between two different time series that is used to construct an ultrametric distance. By analyzing the data of various countries, we derive a hierarchical organization, constructing minimal-spanning and hierarchical trees. From these trees we detect different clusters of countries according to their proximity. We show that the derived clusters corresponds with the geographical location of the countries. The obtained classification of countries can be used to study the contagion phenomena in currency crisis.

Symbolic Time Series Analysis, real exchange rate, hierarchical tree

Abstract:
This short paper investigates the causal relations between tourism growth, relative prices and economic expansion for the Trentino-Alto Adige/Sidtirol, a region of northeast Italy bordering on Switzerland and Austria. Johansen cointegration analysis shows the existence of one cointegrated vector among real GDP, tourism and relative prices where the corresponding elasticities are positive. Tourism and relative prices are weakly exogenous to real GDP. A variation of the Granger Causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto is performed to reveal the uni-directional causality from tourism to real GDP. Therefore the tourism-led growth hypothesis is supported empirically in this case. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock in tourism expenditure produces a fast positive effect on growth.

economic growth, tourism earning, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality

Abstract:
In this paper we analyze the rationality that sustains the public investments on white elephants applied to the construction of tourist facilities in Mexico. The main result of this paper is that there exist two kinds of rationalities in the construction of white elephants. One is a similar rationality to that existent in the prisoner's dilemma, there is also a political rationality that involves politicians and social groups of individuals interested in exploiting tourist activities. If the winner of an electoral process is the same party that proposed the white elephant, then the construction is completed. Otherwise it is abandoned. This means that in the construction of white elephants, the political rationality prevails over economic rationality.

Economic behavior, rationality of investment, white elephant, sustainable tourism

Abstract:
This study investigates the relation between tourism and economic growth for the South Tyrolean economy by using the Johansen cointegration analysis to obtain a cointegrated vector among the relevant variables and the Granger Causality to investigate causality. We use annual data from 1980 to 2006 of the GDP of South Tyrol, the number of foreign tourist in South Tyrol and the relative prices (RP) between South Tyrol and Germany (more than 60% percent of the tourist origin). We show that the estimated long-run elasticity of the real GDP with respect to tourism demand is 0.29 and the Granger Causality test shows that causality goes unidirectionally from tourists and RP to real GDP. Therefore the tourism-led growth hypothesis is supported empirically in the case of South Tyrol. In other words, in South Tyrol, tourism reinforces long-run economic growth but economic growth does not reinforce tourism. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock in the number of tourists and relative prices produce a continuous and sustained positive effect.

economic growth, tourism development, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality

Abstract:
In this paper we describe a method to analyze the structure and dynamics of the 30 largest North American companies. The method combines the tools of Symbolic Time Series Analysis with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm. Data symbolization allows to obtain a metric distance between two different time series that is used to construct a Minimal Spanning Tree allowing to compute an ultrametric distance. From the analysis of time series data of companies included in Dow Jones Industrial Average, we derive a hierarchical organization of these companies. In particular, we detect different clusters of companies which correspond with their common production activities or their strong interrelationship. The obtained classification of companies can be used to study deep relationships among different branch of economic activities and to construct financial portfolios.

Symbolic Time Series Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Financial Asset Returns

Abstract:
This study investigates the main determinants of the German demand for tourism in South Tyrol. The important share of Germans in the South Tyrolean market with more than 80% of the total of international tourism arrivals in the region is the reason for studying this market. We introduce the dynamic data panel model proposed by Arellano and Bond and apply it to a panel data set collected from 116 tourism destinations of South Tyrol. We use annual data from 1987 to 2007 of the per capita GDP of Germany (measuring income), the number of German tourists in each destination (measuring the volume of tourism), the relative prices between Italy and Germany (measuring tourism price) and price of crude oil (as a proxy of travel costs). The main results of this study are: 1) the demand for tourism in the previous period has a positive and relevant effect on actual demand, reflecting loyalty of the German tourists; 2) the cost of travel and the relative prices have a negative and significant impact on the demand.

data panel model, tourism demand, South Tyrol

Abstract:
This short paper analyses the effects in the long-run of tourism on the economic growth of Uruguay. Using quarterly data from 1987.I to 2006.IV, the study uses cointegration analysis and shows the existence of a cointegrated vector among Uruguayan real per capita GDP, Argentinean tourism expenditure (the principal source of tourism in Uruguay), and real exchange rate between Uruguay and Argentina. We also show that the causality relationship goes positively in one way from Argentinean tourism expenditure to real per capita GDP of Uruguay. Finally, we compare our study with similar papers also investigating the TLGH.

economic growth, tourism earnings, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality

Abstract:
In this paper we present a formal definition of the notions of economic regime and regime dynamics. Starting from these definitions, we discuss a multiple regime dynamic model generating an endogenous unemployment-price adjustment mechanism. Two different employment regimes are introduced and the regime dynamics properties of the model are analyzed. Specifically, we assume that the equations governing employment and prices dynamics undergo a discontinuous change in regime when a critical value of unemployment rate is reached. Depending on parameter values, we show that this model is capable of producing a rich variety of dynamic behavior, including complex irregular fluctuations. The main result of this paper is the representation of the regime dynamics via symbolic dynamics. In particular, we show that the regime dynamics of the model can be represented by a shift of finite type that depends on parameter values. In some particular cases, we can also have a representation via directed vertex graphs. An important consequence of this is the possibility of measuring the complexity of the model by using the topological entropy measure. A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the "1st. Latin American Conference on Economic Theory", Bahia Blanca (Argentina), 11-12 June 1999.

Economic Regime, Regime Dynamics, Symbolic Dynamics.

Abstract:
In this paper from the Negishi approach we analyze the concepts of structurally stable and structurally unstable economies on Banach's spaces. With this object we formalize the intuitive concept of similar economies. We show that in certain cases similar (or neighboring) economies can show no similar behaviors when small modifications of their tastes (defined by utility functions) or their endowments are considered. These happens in the cases of structurally unstable economies. The structural stable and unstable concepts in economics are strongly related with the corresponding mathematical concepts, but they are no the same. We introduce a more adequate definition to economics. The Negishi approach allow us to work in an unified way in the cases of finite or infinite dimensional economies.

Singular economies, Banach' s spaces, Negishi approach

Abstract:
This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence.

The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. The empirical application for the case of Antigua confirms the theoretical findings.

tourism demand, growth, economic dynamics, VEC model, Antigua and Barbuda

Abstract:
In this paper we present an economic model to analyze the impact produced by changes of tourist's income on the demand for tourist services and on the investments of hotels on environmental quality. The ingredients of the model are an oligopoly tourist market with a vertical product differentiation and a continuum of consumers characterized by their location. We show that the level of environmental quality selected by the hotels depends on the income level of the tourists and that the demand for hotel services depends positively on the level of their own investments to preserve the natural characteristics of the tourist region where they are located.

environmental quality, sustainable tourism

Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) to series of inflation from a group of Latin-American economies. Starting with a partition of two inflation regimes, we use data symbolization for identifying temporal patterns. Afterwards the statistical information obtained from the patterns is used to estimate the parameters of a non-linear model proposed by Brida (2000). We compare the performance of the model against a naive benchmark predictor to verify its power to anticipate thequalitative behavior of the inflation time series. When the use of STSA is made through pure optimization criteria the performance of the model is poor. However, when the partition of the space of states is made according to economics intuition, the performance of the model increases considerably.

Qualitative Data Analysis, Symbolic Time Series, Symbolic Dynamics, Economic Regimes, Regime Dynamics

Abstract:
Modern theories of economic growth recognize human capital as the main factor of growth. Strong investments of countries in education and research are justified by this fact. However, there are few studies analyzing the interaction between the development of human capital and the economic growth of countries. In particular, it is difficult to find in the modern literature papers that model growth economics with learning strategies and generally this works take human capital as exogenous to the model. In this paper we introduce in the very well known model of Romer (1990) (see also version in Romer (1996)) a modification to obtain a model of economic growth with learning strategies (see Bustillos and Oliveira (2004), Mingfeng et al. (2006) and Penna (1995), Huang and Stauffer (2001), Maksymowicz et al. (2008), Mingfeng et al. (2006), Oliveira (1998), Pan et al. (2005), Penna (1995), Stauffer (2007) ). In particular, we applied a version of the Bustillos and Oliveira model to a model of economic growth depending on knowledge. We explain that economic growth is determined by two ways of learning: 1)"individual learning": individual cumulates knowledge by interacting with its natural environment, in a process of trial-and error; 2) "social learning": individuals spending time near another ("teacher") can learn and cumulate knowledge. We analyze the model conducting simulations, obtaining implication of economic policy.

Economic Growth, Learning Strategies, Human Capital

Abstract:
In this paper we describe and apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis to an experimental framework. We discuss data symbolization as a tool for identifying temporal patterns in experimental data and use symbol sequence statistics in a model strategy. In particular, we introduce a static partition in a time series of inflation rates. This partition is based on economic criteria using the notion of economic regime. Consequently, the time series is converted into a symbolic sequence. The probability of occurrence of different symbol strings constitute the symbol sequence statistics. Then a method is discussed for reconstructing a model of inflation fluctuations from measured time series data, where the symbol sequence statistics are used as the target for reconstruction. That is, we will show how the observed symbolic sequence statistics can be used as a target for measuring the goodness of fit of the proposed model.

Qualitative Data Analysis, Symbolic Time Series, Symbolic Dynamics, Economic Regimes, Regime Dynamics

Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of a correct valuation of the opportunity costs in individual decisions and social welfare applied to a tourism problem. Starting from the partial equilibrium model in Skak (2004), we show that the valuation of social welfare depends on the definition of individual opportunity costs. In particular we show that if the labor income is introduced in the valuation of the opportunity cost of the owners, then a free market of vacation homes is the best mechanism to obtain the maximum social welfare. We conclude that the best public policy is to eliminate all restrictions to the vacation homes markets.

social welfare, vacation homes, opportunity cost, Pareto sense

Abstract:
Sustainable systems are those that can maintain a desirable regime in the presence of disturbance. Dynamic regime theory has been applied to systems in a growing number of disciplines to understand and predict system behavior, as well as manage system sustainability. A multidisciplinary analysis of dynamic regime models could benefit all disciplines, for several reasons. Given the difficulty of replication and experimentation in real-world systems, a collection of dynamic systems across disciplines and scales could serve as much-needed replicates. If endogenous variables behave similarly regardless of the source of exogenous pressures, and of the scale at which the system is defined, then general models, rules and coded behaviors can be developed. Furthermore, if the same basic theory regarding system behavior (including rapid regime change) applies across disciplines at multiple spatiotemporal scales, then models developed from these theories may help manage those systems which, at larger scales, cross traditional disciplinary lines. This result would support collaboration across disciplines to study the sustainability of dynamic systems. Here we discuss the mathematical basis for common dynamic regime models, and then describe their application to sociological, ecological, and economic systems, in a scale-explicit manner.

dynamic regimes, mathematical models, relationships, ecosystems, climate change

Abstract:
We study an endogenous growth model of technological assimilation through an adaptive learning process defining the accumulation of human capital. Heterogeneity in the level of technological knowledge among agents in different countries leads not only to temporal divergences in income and productivity levels, due to differences in capacity utilization, but also to multiple diverging growth paths for identical technological bases. We prove the existence of a sigmoid learning function defining the level of technological assimilation. Agents update a prior knowledge function based on the distance from the technological frontier, defined by the new technology, to the current state of knowledge, defined by the country's technological development level. The expected level of output, its dispersion, and the stochastic process governing the arrival rate of innovations are all defined by the state of the knowledge function. Technological cycles are only efficient if the learning process assimilating new innovations develops simultaneously. Different frequencies between both cycles lead to technology underutilization and stagnation. Convergence is only achieved if the technological process stops. That is, if innovations arrive with zero frequency. A positive steady state arrival rate gives place to diverging convergence clubs of countries whose growth rates depend on the assimilation level of their agents.

Growth, learning, convergence clubs

Abstract:
The dynamics of tourists and guests can be modeled in a varied of ways and, in most of this models tourist destinations behave as dynamic evolving complex systems. In this paper we represent an economic problem in which the affluence of tourists to a specific place depends on the "state" of the place (infrastructure, maintenance, ambiance's conditions, etc) that in turn depends on the individuals decisions on these parameters, that are influenced by the behaviour of the other agents. We introduce a model of the interactions between natural resources, residents, tourists and authorities in the self-organized kind of evolution of a tourist destination. The model, starting up from simple components can produce very complex behaviours. Because of the complexity of the model a computational analysis is required. We show that the model can reproduce several meaningful situations. Depending on the levels of the system parameters we can detect the possibility of mass tourism (and a negative crowding effect on environment) or sustainable management of the destination. We show that when preferences of tourists and/or residents induce the depredation of the natural resources and disdain for the environmental quality of the region, the authorities cannot reverse the negative behaviour of the agents by investing on preservation; they have to punish non cooperative agents. The model also shows that, when all the participants are cooperative, the environmental quality improves and tourism demand increases, inducing, in turn an increase in welfare.

tourism' demand, sustainability, economic policies, self-organized model

Abstract:
In this paper we introduce the formalism and terminology of multiregime dynamics for both theoretical modeling and data analysis. Coding is proposed as the appropriate tool for the analysis of such special type of dynamics, focussing upon switches between suitably defined dynamical regimes. Individually taken these switches often represent abrupt alterations in the qualitative features of the dynamic process. At times, however, they seem to be stringed together to show emerging (near) regularities and fluctuations. This opens new vistas upon applications to the analysis of the vector time series of socioeconomic models. In empirical applications, coding involves transformation of data into a sequence of symbols that is then analyzed with information-theoretic tools, so as to extract information about generating processes.

Dynamic regimes, coded dynamics

Abstract:
In this paper we introduce a method to describe dynamical patterns for the exchange rate movements in the main Latin American markets and to analyze the contagion phenomena in currency crisis. This method combines Symbolic Time Series Analysis (Daw et. al. 2003) with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm (Mantegna and Stanley 2000). From symbolization of data we obtain a distance between different time series that can be used to construct a Minimal Spanning Tree (MST). Besides, an ultrametric distance is obtained to construct the Hierarchical Tree (HT). These trees are used to detect clusters according to their proximity and to obtain a hierarchical organization. This classification is then used to study the contagion phenomena in Latin American currency crisis and the connections and hierarchy in regional currency markets.

Time Series Analysis, Minimal Spanning Tree, Hierarchical Tree, Currency Crisis, Real Exchange Rate

Abstract:
In this paper we show that in a pure exchange economy where social weights and total resources are fixed there is no possibility to improve the social welfare by means of efficient reallocations of the resources. However, if social weights are not fixed but can be selected from a particular set, then it is possible to improve the social welfare along an efficient path. On the other hand we show that in an intertemporal economy, the possibility of improving the social welfare by a reallocation is strongly related with the level of intertemporal discount factor. In some particular cases it is possible, to improve social welfare by an intertemporal reallocation of resources. In addition, we show that it is possible to find a social rule to choose a walrasian equilibrium from an order relation defined on the set of social weights.

Pareto efficiency, Walrasian Equilibrium, social welfare

Abstract:
This study investigates aspects of host perception to be used for the formulation of possible strategic tourism policies. A community segmentation framework with cluster analysis and multinomial logit model was applied to data of Folgaria - a small mountain community in Trentino South-Tyrol, northern Italy - to reveal the heterogeneity of resident’s perception towards tourism impacts. The results of this study reflect the overall opinions of the sample population, and further identifies relatively homogeneous opinion groups. Positive and negative perceptions about tourism in the region generate a division of residents in environmental supporters, development supporters, protectionist, and ambivalent; all groups are influenced by the employment in the tourism sector. This study further identifies the effect of demographic variation on the analyzed cluster and on the residents’ attitudes towards tourism, contributing to the debate on local tourism development.

Cluster analysis, Discriminant analysis, Multinomial logit analysis, host perceptions, tourism segmentation, Folgaria

Abstract:
The paper studies the dynamics of economic growth caused by an increase in the growth rate of tourism demand.

We develop a simple dynamic model of a small open economy, which is completely specialized in the production of tourism services (island economy model), populated by a large number of intertemporally optimizing agents, deriving utility from consuming an imported good. Tourism services are produced by means of a simple AK technology by using imported capital, its accumulation associated with adjustment costs. Moreover, the economy can lend or borrow at the international financial markets at the given world interest rate. Adjustments in the relative price of tourism services ensure market clearance for tourism services.

The long-run growth rate of the economy is tied to the growth rate in tourism demand. An increase in the latter increases thus the economy’s long-run balanced growth rate. In contrast to the standard one-good small open economy endogenous growth model, where the economy is always on its balanced growth path, we show that there are transitional dynamics after an increase in the growth rate of tourism demand. In particular, the short-run growth rate of output rises gradually towards its higher long-run level, and the market price of tourism increases during transition. Thus, an increase in the growth of tourism demand, say, caused by higher economic growth abroad, leads to a boom in the small open economy and increasing terms of trade. Adjustments of the relative price of tourism services (i. e. the real exchange rate) can therefore not protect the economy from demand disturbances.

tourism demand, growth, economic dynamics

Abstract:
In this paper we search for the best SARIMA specification for forecasting arrivals in thirteen regions of Chile. We use monthly time series of arrivals from January 2004 to March 2009. The forecasting performance is assessed using data for the period October 2008 to March 2009. We use three methods for the specification of the model; the Box-Jenkins method with Akaike criterium, the method of minimizing the forecast error and the regARIMA method of the X12-ARIMA package. We compare the performance of the three methods according to their forecast results. Regions have different SARIMA specifications, resembling the underlying differences in tourism infrastructure and capacities available within each Region.

Abstract:
The paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an increase in tourism demand due to an exogenous increase in foreigner's income one the one hand and due to marketing activities in tourism of a small country that specializes completely in tourism production. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that an increase in tourism demand leads to an increase in relative price of domestically produced tourism services and rises tourism production. Because the dynamic transition is characterized by capital accumulation and a current account deficit, the economy ends up with a higher capital stock but a lower stock of net foreign assets. Higher foreign income has a welfare increasing effect, whereas an increase in marketing expenditures has ambiguous effects on residents' consumption and welfare. We also discuss the effects of a temporary demand stimulus, which is shown to have nonetheless permanent effects on the country's net foreign asset position and agents' consumption.

tourism demand, marketing expenditures, economic dynamics, temporary demand shocks

Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to study the economic dynamics of a set of countries of the American continent during the period 1951-2003. We introduce an alternative concept of growth convergence based on the notion of dynamic regimes. Regimes are defined in the state space of growth rates and real per capita GDP. By introducing a non-parametric method of clustering we detect two main convergence clubs. One of them can be identified as the group of high performance countries and shows a relatively more homogeneous structure. Countries in this group tend to exhibit similar performances. On the contrary, the second group exhibits a high dispersion in performances suggesting the existence of sub-clusters and some kind of divergence among them. We also study the mobility between the low and high performance clubs and find a higher probability of changing from low to high than suggested in the traditional literature on convergence.

Abstract:
Tourism, as a dynamic and exchange process, involves a direct and reciprocal relation between users, residents and producers of the tourism product. This interaction component can bring both positive and negative consequences and therefore should be carefully monitored in order to minimize the costs implied with the tourism process. The aim of this paper is to analyze how the impacts of tourism are perceived by local population and which factors do affect the relationship between impacts and perceptions' formation, with specific consideration of the framework in a mountain resort. For this purpose, the paper explores the existing literature on issues related to host perceptions and attitudes and involves a primary data collection in the mountain community of Folgaria in Northern Italy. The number and quality of the questionnaires collected allowed us to perform a quantitative analysis of the hosts perceptions and attitudes and a cluster analysis has demonstrated the existence of different groups within which members have common features and similar perceptions and attitudes. In general this research work has revealed a recognition by the residents of the positive economic impacts of tourism. Also the social and cultural impacts are recognized to be positive, but at a lower degree. In terms of the future tourism polices the different groups identified in the cluster analysis exert different positions.

tourism impacts, mountain tourism, residents perceptions and attitudes, tourism development, tourism policies

Abstract:
Cruise tourism generates an estimated $18 billion a year in passenger expenditure and has been the fastest growing sector of the travel industry for the past twenty years with an average annual growth rate of passengers of 7.4%. Cruises can provide economic benefits to a local economy but the impacts of this activity are not well understood and have been neglected in the literature. The purpose of this study is to provide information, based on primary investigation, to help the decision making process and the establishment of policies and strategies for cruise ship tourism. We focus on the case of Costa Rica using data collected by the Costa Rican Tourism Institute during the period 2006 - 2008.

cruise industry, economic impacts, Costa Rica

Abstract:
Using the methodology suggested by Box and Jenkins (1970) we compare two SARIMA models for the overnight stays of the tourist in South Tyrol. We applied a seasonal unit root test suggesting that there is not seasonal unit root in the series. However, the best of the two models predicting the overnight stays considers the possibility of a seasonal unit root. Using a monthly time series of the overnight stays from January 1950 to December 2005, the best model predicting the period January 2006 to December 2008 is a SARIMA(2,1,2)(0,1,1)-ARCH(1).

Tourism, SARIMA model, South Tyrol, Forecasting

Abstract:
This paper attempts to explain why, in a number of touristic resorts, we observe an increase in the relative weight of second homes at the expenses of hotels, in spite of the observation that second homes increase seasonality thereby tending to the reduce the welfare of the community, with respect to the hotel alternative. We model and illustrating a simple externality mechanism that may develop under a regime of dispersed ownership of the various recreational facilities at the resort, and in the presence of land use restrictions that place a bound on the number of buildings or on their aggregate size.

The logic behind our argument is the following. Neither a potential homeowner nor a potential hotel owner, as long as they are unintegrated in all or part of the lateral businesses of the resort, consider in their decision the spillover on the local community. A potential second home owner won't consider the negative spillover stemming from its non-utilization for a large portion of the year; on the other hand, a non-integrated hotel owner won't consider the positive spillover that emerges for precisely the opposite reason. This can potentially lead to inefficiencies, and to the over-provision of second homes, and the simultaneous under-provision of hotel rooms.

Allocation, tourism resources, suboptimal equilibria, vacation homes

Abstract:
In this paper we model tourism in the framework of multi-population dynamics and analyze the time pattern of its development through the evolving interaction between two populations feeding on a common space-resource. Each population might be structured in two (or more) "clubs" of members sharing social and economic interests as to the management of the relevant resource. Such situation will be modeled by a version of the well known replicator dynamics. The strategies are characterized as environmentalist and not environmentalist behaviors of residents and tourist. We show that the properties of an environmentalist behavior as stable strategy, Nash equilibrium and dynamic replicator solution.

tourism sustainability, structured populations, replicator dynamics

Abstract:
For years second home tourism has been an issue of discussion between tourist experts, real estate agents and politicians in both Mediterranean countries and Alpine destinations, however it has not raised much concern in academic circles. The aim of this paper is to analyze the second home phenomenon in order to acquire a better understanding of the overall situation and give an insight into the aspects and needs for policy planning. For this purpose South Tyrol has been taken as a case study, and a comprehensive overview of the situation has been determined through both quantitative and qualitative investigation on opinions and attitudes of second home owners, local residents, politicians, real estate agents. The outcome of this paper is a holistic picture of the phenomenon, which examines the positive and negative impacts and shows the need for public regulation through land use planning.

second homes, policy planning, economic impacts, tourism development

Abstract:
The present short paper considers the cruising expenditure in Costa Rica as a key variable in the economic analysis of the cost and benefits associated with the cruise industry. We use cross sectional dimension for 2008 to analyze the different variables influencing expenditure levels. Conducting this kind of analysis in a rigorous way requires appropriate statistic and econometric tools. We profit of very good quality data collected by the Costa Rica Tourism Board (ICT) rarely accessible for the cruise sector to estimate a cross-sectional regression model for the cruising expenditure depending on different characteristics of the cruise passenger and their travel. We also use the data to analyse the determinants of the probability of repeat visits to Costa Rica. The results that have been obtained show the existence of different tourist profiles that are related to the expenditure levels. We show that heavy spenders are distinguishable from the other segments in terms of age, hours spent out of the ship, nationality, income levels and their spending pattern.

cruise industry, Costa Rica, tourist profile, tourist expenditure, economic impact

Abstract:
We introduce a model of tourism choice where we consider that the choice of a tourism resort by a tourist, depends not only on the characteristics of the product offered by the resort but depends also on certain characteristics - crowding types - of the other tourists that have chosen the same resort. To get insights about the effect of crowding types in the allocation of tourists across resorts we exploit a club formation approach and model the framework by means of a Nash game. We establish existence of strategic equilibrium and characterize relevant equilibria.

crowding types, Nash equilibrium, strategic choice of tourism resort

Abstract:
The main objective of this paper is to analyze the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Central American and selected Caribbean countries (The Bahamas, Dominica, Dominican Republic and Saint Lucia). Following recent methodology presented by Ivanov and Webster (2007), this paper will utilize the rate of growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita as a measure of economic growth. This will then be disaggregated into a growth component attributable to tourism and a second growth component generated by the other industries of the economy. This methodology, which has the characteristic of generating a performance measure of tourism’s past contribution to economic growth, will be applied to the period 1990-2007. We compare the results with a group of developed destinations including Spain, France, Italy, UK and USA. The comparison between the two groups shows that the tourism contribution to GDP is higher in general for the developed group but it is not associated necessarily with a greater contribution to the economy’s growth.

tourism impacts, growth performance, rate of growth

Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Colombia. First , we conduce an ex-post analysis. We quantify the contribution of the tourism sector to economic growth from the early 1990's until 2006 by disaggregating the growth of real GDP per capita into economic growth generated by tourism and by other industries. Second, we analyze if international tourism is a strategic factor for long-run economic growth for Colombia. This believes that tourism can cause long-run economic growth it is known in the literature as the tourism-led growth hypothesis. The hypotheses is tested empirically by using the cointegration test by Johansen and the Granger Causality test. We find empirical evidence for one cointegrated vector among real GDP per capita, Colombian tourism expenditures and real exchange rates, where the latter two variables are weakly exogenous to the model. The Granger causality test suggests that causality in this model goes from tourism expenditures to real GDP per capita.

tourism impacts, economic growth, GDP, cointegration test, causality test