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Abstract:
Ideology, as proxied by a country's dominant religion, seems to be related to inequality. In Judeo-Christian societies increased democratization appears to lead to lower inequality; in Muslim and Confucian societies it has an insignificant effect. One reason for this difference may be that Muslim and Confucian societies rely on informal transfers to reach the desired level of inequality, while Judeo-Christian societies, where family ties are weaker, use political action.

Standard political economy theories suggest that democratization has a moderating effect on income inequality. But the empirical literature has failed to uncover any such robust relationship. Gradstein, Milanovic, and Ying take another look at the issue.

The authors argue that prevailing ideology may be an important determinant of inequality and that the democratization effect "works through" ideology. In societies that value equality highly there is less distributional conflict among income groups, so democratization may have only a negligible effect on inequality. But in societies that value equality less, democratization reduces inequality through redistribution as the poor outvote the rich.

The authors' cross-country empirical analysis, covering 126 countries in 1960-98, confirms the hypothesis: ideology, as proxied by a country's dominant religion, seems to be related to inequality. In addition, while in Judeo-Christian societies increased democratization appears to lead to lower inequality, in Muslim and Confucian societies it has an insignificant effect. The authors hypothesize that Muslim and Confucian societies rely on informal transfers to reach the desired level of inequality, while Judeo-Christian societies, where family ties are weaker, use political action.

This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study inequality and income redistribution. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research projects "Democracy, Redistribution, and Inequality" (RPO 683-01) and "Deriving World Income Distribution in 1988 and 1993" (RPO 683-68). The authors may be contacted at bgumail.bgu.ac.il, bmilanovic@worldbank.org, or yvonne_ying@hotmail.com.

Abstract:
In Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland, the higher the relative household income is, the higher the savings rate is. But, surprisingly, savings rates appear to be unaffected by either sector of employment (public or private) or form of employment. Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their own homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables.

During the transition from central planning to market economies now under way in Eastern Europe, output levels first collapsed by 40 to 50 percent in most countries, then staged a modest recovery in the last two years. Longer-term revival of growth requires a resumption of investment and thus, realistically, of domestic savings.

To explore the determinants of household savings rates in transition economies, Denizer, Wolf, and Ying studied matching household surveys for three Central European economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland.

They find that savings rates strongly increase with relative income, suggesting that increasing income inequality may play a role in determining savings rates.

Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables.

The influence of demographic factors broadly matches earlier findings for developing countries.

Perhaps surprisingly, variables associated with the household's position in the transition process - including either sector of employment (public or private) or form of employment - do not play a significant role in determining savings rates.

This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to understand determinants of savings, at both the household and the aggregate level.

Abstract:
We explore household savings decision in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland during the transition from plan to market, finding four main results. First, except for the age profile, the effects of standard determinants on savings are comparable for transition and market economies. Second, we do not find support for a precautionary savings motive. Third, the evidence on consumption smoothing is mixed. Education of the head of the household, but not employment characteristics, are linked robustly to savings. Fourth, ownership of durables is negatively correlated with savings, consistent with the presence of anticipatory savings.