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Abstract:
In this paper we use a model of vertical product differentiation to cast doubt on the general validity of the import demand function as specified in macroeconomic models. The empirical importance of our theoretical concerns is then established. According to our first hypothesis, the share of a good's imports in total imports is non-increasing in domestic wages if the country has comparative advantage in high-quality varieties of this good. The second hypothesis states that the share of a good's imports is increasing in non-wage domestic income if the country has comparative advantage in high-quality varieties of this good.

Abstract:
In this paper we use a model of vertical product differentiation to cast doubt on the general validity of the import demand function as specified in macroeconomic models. The empirical importance of our theoretical concerns is then examined with the aid of two hypotheses. According to the first hypothesis, an increase in domestic wages is expected to reduce the share in total imports for goods in which the domestic comparative advantage is in high quality varieties of these goods. The second hypothesis states that an increase in non-wage income will increase the share of a good's imports if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good. We find considerable empirical support for both hypotheses in the data for Germany, Japan and the United States.

Abstract:
Following Turkey's application for EU membership in 1987, a Customs Union (CU) between Turkey and the EU, mainly covering trade in manufacturing goods and processed agricultural products, came into effect in 1995. In addition to a large agricultural sector, Turkey also specializes in the production and exportation of relatively low-price, low-quality varieties of manufactured products. We use a theoretical framework in order to demonstrate that these features of the Turkish economy imply asymmetric changes in the trade volumes of the incumbent countries of the EU as a result of the EU-Turkey CU. By examining disaggregated trade data we find that the technologically sophisticated EU countries (e.g., mainly the Northern European countries) are also least similar to Turkey in terms of their export structure, whereas the degree of export similarity between the less technologically sophisticated EU members and Turkey is high. Our econometric results indicate that, in contrast to the "Northern" group's exports to other EU15 countries (which have remained intact), the Southern countries's exports to the other EU15 countries have declined as a result of the EU-Turkey CU. Moreover, the extra penetration of the Turkish market by EU countries has not been more favourable to the Southern group. These findings also imply that technologically sophisticated countries may see no significant further benefits from Turkey's full accession to the EU (whereas the migration and political influence related costs for these countries may be large).

European Union, Turkey, customs union, exports, gravity, differentiated products

Abstract:
In this paper we argue that strong political economy forces explain the rush of the EU to expand eastwards. We use a model of vertical product differentiation in order to claim that technologically-advanced EU firms (residing in high-income member countries) prefer a mutual market-opening with less technologically sophisticated countries than multilateral liberalization, which would necessarily involve the reciprocal opening of markets with other technologically-advanced countries. By the same token, less technologically sophisticated firms residing in low-income member countries would prefer an enlargement that is directed towards high-income countries. The evidence presented in the paper supports our hypothesis.

EU Enlargement, Vertically Differentiated Products, Political Economy, Customs Unions

Abstract:
This paper evaluates two approaches to work-sharing by examining both within the same macro model. The standard approach involves imposing a quantity constraint on labour market participants (a maximum number of standard hours for each worker). This approach is compared to a revenue-neutral employment subsidy financed by a tax on overtime hours - an initiative intended to harness market incentives. The paper shows that the second approach brings much preferred results - it involves lower unemployment, higher investment, and no reduction in the wage earnings of those already employed. The analysis suggests that policymakers should not reject work-sharing just because they are (justifiably) skeptical of mandated reductions in hours. The model involves the following features: (i) it is optimization-based (so there is a well-defined reason for labour market failure); (ii) it facilitates the investigation of trade-offs (so it can be determined whether improvements in unemployment must be accompanied by reductions in productivity, investment, average hours or wage rates); (iii) it involves a small open economy (so concerns about the limits to independent policy in this setting are respected); and (iv) it can be readily calibrated (so empirically relevant quantitative results are derived).

Abstract:
In this paper we construct a political economy model in which minimum wages are determined according to the wishes of the median voter. Using the minimum wage scheme as the status quo, we show that the replacement of minimum wages by wage subsidies guaranteeing the same (pre-tax) level of income (achieved by the government supplementing the wage income of workers by a subsidy equal to the difference between the competitive wage rate and the minimum wage rate), is not likely to receive political support unless it is supplemented by increased taxation of profits (after-tax profits are also likely to increase). Moreover, we show that the likelihood of implementation of wage subsidies is undermined by the existence of a heterogeneous labour force.

minimum wages, wage subsidies, median voter, political economy

Abstract:
Two macro models - one for a closed economy and the other for a small open economy - are used to examine the scope for income redistribution and employment creation. In particular, the introduction of both a guaranteed annual income (basic income) and an employment subsidy are examined, and these policies are compared to a straightforward tax cut for (unskilled) labour. All initiatives are financed by a tax on capital. In the open-economy setting, capital is perfectly mobile, so there is a trade-off between the direct benefits of each policy, and the costs that follow from the out-migration of capital. The model is used to assess the relative importance of these competing effects.

Guaranteed Annual Income, Subsidies, Capital Taxes, Redistribution

Abstract:
The relationship between inequality and redistribution is usually studied under the assumption that the government collects different amounts of taxes from each citizen (voter) but gives back the same amount (in cash or in kind) to everyone. In this paper we consider what happens if the government can redistribute through both sides of its budget (revenue and expenditure). We show that inequality may have no discernible effect on the size of redistributive programs.

redistribution, inequality, public goods, median voter.

Abstract:
The relationship between inequality and redistribution is usually studied under the assumption that the government collects different amounts of taxes from each citizen (voter) but gives back the same amount (in cash or in kind) to everyone. In this paper we consider what happens if the government can redistribute through both sides of its budget (revenue and expenditure). We study the effects of inequality on the size (and structure) of redistributive programs in both perfectly competitive and monopolistic settings. We find that the presence of monopoly results in a higher tax rate than in the competitive case and that in the latter case an increase in inequality can be associated with a fall in the tax rate. We find also that although the median voter may not vote for a positive tax rate in the presence of public sector inefficiency under perfect competition, she may prefer - ceteris paribus - a positive tax rate in the presence of monopoly.

monopoly, redistribution, inequality, public goods, median voter

Abstract:
In this paper we reexamine the Feldstein-Horioka finding of limited international capital mobility by using a broader view (i.e., including human capital) of investment and saving. We find that the Feldstein-Horioka result is impervious to this change.

human capital, current account, investment-saving correlation, capital mobility

Abstract:
In contrast to much recent work regarding the causes of European unemployment, in this paper, we emphasise the importance of capital accumulation. But unlike the few previous studies which have examined the relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment, we argue that what matters for the evolution of employment [and the unemployment rate] is not the absolute growth rate of a country's capital stock, but its evolution relative to other countries' capital stock. The empirical validity of the above statement is demonstrated for almost all OECD countries using quarterly time-series data from 1961-1995. More detailed evidence is also presented for Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.

Abstract:
We analyze some macroeconomic implications that follow from the fact that people tend to consume higher-quality goods as their incomes rise. The model involves two sectors: one producing a homogeneous good and the other producing a product with variable levels of quality. Both sectors use skilled and unskilled labour, but higher quality varieties of the differentiated good are more skilled-labour intensive. The skilled-to-unskilled wage ratio is fixed at a level sufficiently low that some unskilled workers remain unemployed. We show that uniform (across sectors), Hicks-neutral technological progress must increase the unemployment rate. We then discuss a number of policy responses (tax cuts, direct government employment of the unskilled, employment subsidies to firms for hiring the unskilled, increased generosity of unemployment insurance) under different scenarios concerning how the government finances these initiatives. Political economy consequences are emphasized, as we assess each policy's chance of receiving political support from skilled workers. We conclude that a subsidy for the employment of unskilled workers, financed by a rise in the employer payroll tax rate associated with skilled workers, is a viable policy option.

Technical Change, Vertical Product Differentiation, Unemployment Income Distribution

Abstract:
For the last fifty years, countries in Asia and elsewhere have witnessed a surge in aggregate savings per capita. Some empirical studies attribute this trend to the increases in life longevity of the populations of these countries. It has been argued that the rise in savings is short-run, eventually to be dissipated by the dissaving of the elderly, whose proportion in the population rises along with longevity. This paper examines whether these conclusions are supported by economic theory. A model of life-cycle decisions with uncertain survival is used to derive individuals' consumption and chosen retirement age response to changes in longevity from which changes in individual savings are derived. Conditions on the age-profile of improvements in survival probabilities are shown to be necessary in order to predict the direction of this response. Population theory (e.g. Coale, 1952) is used to derive the steady-state population age density function, enabling the aggregation of individual response functions and a comparative steady-state analysis. Under certain conditions, increased longevity is shown to increase aggregate savings per capita. These conclusions pertain to an economy with a competitive annuity market. The absence of such market compels individuals to leave unintended bequests, whose size depends on the (random) age of death. While an increase in longevity raises individual savings for given endowments, it is shown that the effect on expected steady-state aggregate savings, taking into account the endogenous ergodic distribution of endowments, cannot be determined a-priori.

inequality, US import demand, vertically differentiated products, cointegration

Abstract:
We construct a two sector general equilibrium model in which one sector produces a homogeneous good and the other sector produces a vertically differentiated good. We demonstrate that uniform (across sectors) and (Hicks) neutral technological change can cause an increase in the skill premium.

Technological change, skill premium, differentiated products

Abstract:
In this paper we build a model of trade in vertically differentiated products and find that income inequality can affect the demand for imports even in the presence of homothetic preferences. The empirical importance of changes in inequality on the demand for imports is then assessed by examining panel data for 36 developing and developed countries for the 1980-1997 period. We find significant evidence supporting our prediction that inequality has a large influence on the demand for imports. Moreover we find that, in line with the predictions of our theoretical model, this influence is positive for high-income countries (countries that produce the high quality variety of the vertically differentiated product) and negative for low-income countries (countries that produce the low quality variety of the vertically differentiated product).

inequality, import demand, vertically differentiated products, panel data

Abstract:
In this paper we construct a Ricardian model of trade in vertically-differentiated products between a developing country and the (developed) rest of the world. Despite labour being the only factor of production in this model, tariffs (in addition to income taxes) have distributional consequences because the high-quality imported varieties are consumed only by high-income households. The model predicts a U-shaped relationship between income inequality and the median-voter's preferred reliance on tariffs versus income taxes in order to effect the desired redistribution. Using data from 44 countries we test for the existence of this U-shaped relationship by estimating a cross-sectional regression relating the ratio of the tariff rate over the tax rate to inequality and a set of control variables such as GDP per capita, openness, the degree of democracy and area dummies. We find that the model's predictions are supported by the data.

inequality, tariffs, median-voter, trade, vertical differentiation

Abstract:
This paper uses a model of trade in vertically differentiated products to examine the effects of "excessive wage" increases (i.e. above productivity) on the volume of commodity imports. The model predicts that for commodities, in which the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties, an increase in "excessive wages" may result in a decrease in the volume of imports. The empirical validity of the model's predictions is demonstrated with the use of disaggregated Japanese import data for the period 1967-95. We also find that the aggregate volume of Japanese imports is not responsive to "excessive wage" changes.

Abstract:
The effects of technological change on wage inequality are usually studied under the assumption of exogenous supplies of skilled and unskilled workers. Moreover, in these studies there is no distinction between the stock (number of workers) and the flow (hours of work) dimension of labour services. In the present paper, we construct a model in which hours of work and technological change affect both the (relative) demand and supply of unskilled workers. The labour supply of unskilled workers (numbers of persons) is derived from a model of household labour supply in which households differ regarding the disutility suffered when both household members work. Combining together the (relative) supply and demand parts of the model we are able to establish technological change (either biased or neutral) as a plausible explanation of recent trends in wage inequality.

Abstract:
Casual empiricism suggests that “unwarranted” wage changes, defined as the part of wage growth that is not explained by changes in labour productivity, are negatively associated with the return on capital. The main point of this paper is to show that “unwarranted” wage changes have no causal effect on capital return. To this end, we show that standard theoretical models, in which “unwarranted” wages changes and the return on capital are endogenously determined, do not necessarily predict a negative association between them. We then estimate aggregate net return on capital equations using panel data for 19 OECD countries for the period 1970-2000 in which we account for the endogeneity of “unwarranted” wage changes by exploiting variations in institutional and labour market characteristics. We find that “unwarranted” wage changes do not affect the return on capital. This result remains robust to alternative empirical specifications and to alternative definitions of profitability and “unwarranted” wage changes. An implication of our findings is that standard calls for reforms aiming at wage moderation following the appearance of “unwarranted” wage changes are not always justified.

capital return, profits, “unwarranted” wages, productivity, endogeneity

Abstract:
In the present study we argue that the salient features of both the EU-15 countries and Turkey are conducive to making the effects of the 1995 EU Turkey customs union asymmetric among the incumbent EU countries. In order to support our argument we rely on a model in which trade involves the exchange of vertically differentiated products. This model generates the prediction that the more contiguous an incumbent country is to the joining country in terms of technological sophistication, the larger will be the crowding out of this country's exports to the other incumbent countries as a result of the CU expansion. Using a gravity model we estimate the effects of the customs union between Turkey and the EU-15 by differentiating between exports from (a) lower-technology EU-15 countries (we term this group of countries South) to higher-technology EU-15 countries (the North), (b) North to South, (c) South to Turkey, (d) North to Turkey, and (e) Turkey to EU-15. Our econometric results indicate that, in contrast to North's exports to the other EU-15 countries (which have remained intact), the Southern countries exports to the other EU-15 countries have declined as a result of the CU. Moreover, the extra penetration of the Turkish market by the EU-15 countries has not been more favourable to the Southern group.

Abstract:
In this paper we re-examine the Feldstein-Horioka finding of limited international capital mobility by using a broader view (i.e. including human capital) of investment and saving. We find that the decline in the economic significance of the Feldstein-Horioka result, found in studies using more recent data, holds also for our broader definition of saving and investment.

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of pension funding for a small open economy in which wages are subject to bargaining. Using an overlapping-generations framework, we show that a reform away from a Pay-As-You-Go towards a funded pension system will be Pareto improving only if the reform results in a reduction in the steady-state unemployment rate. However, the reduction in the unemployment rate is by no means warranted: although for pension systems which involve a limited amount of intra-generational redistribution this is likely, for systems displaying a high degree of intra-generational redistribution the unemployment rate may well rise thus preventing the realization of welfare gains.

Abstract:
The effects of technological change on wage inequality are usually studied under the assumption of exogenous supplies of skilled and unskilled workers. Moreover, in these studies there is no distinction between the stock (number of workers) and the flow (hours of work) dimension of labour services. In the present paper we construct a model in which hours of work and technological change affect both the (relative) demand and supply of unskilled workers. The labour supply of unskilled workers (numbers of persons) is derived from a model of household labour supply in which households consist of two potential participants in the labour force. The households are assumed to differ in only one dimension regarding their preferences, i.e. the disutility suffered when the second household member works. Combining together the (relative) supply and demand parts of the model we are able to study the effects of technological change on wage and income inequality. This framework is also used in order to inquire whether work sharing is a reasonable response if one wants to fight increases in inequality resulting from fast technological change. In addition, we examine whether in a three factor model the main presumption in favour of skill biased technological change can be reconciled with the facts.

technological change, inequality, household labour supply, work sharing