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Abstract:
We construct a unique data set to analyze whether or not a large temporary shock had an impact on German city growth and city size distribution. Following recent work by Davis and Weinstein (2001) on Japan, we take the strategic bombing of German cities during WWII as our example of such a shock. The goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of this shock on German city growth and the resulting city size distribution. If city growth follows a random walk this would imply that the war shock had a permanent impact on German city growth. If, however, as a second group of theories predicts, the random walk hypothesis is not confirmed, this would mean that the war shock had at most a temporary effect on the city growth process. Our main finding is that city growth in western Germany did not follow a random walk, while in eastern Germany it did. Different post-war economic systems are most likely responsible for this outcome.

Abstract:
In this paper we want to shed some light on the empirical relevance of the new economic geography. Using one of the central features of the core new economic geography models, namely that wages have the tendency to fall the further one moves away from centres of economic activity, we investigate the existence of a spatial wage structure for post-unification Germany. We find support for a spatial wage structure for German city-district wages, and hence indirectly for the relevance of a new economic geography model for Germany. We also find that demand linkages in Germany are strongly localised and that the "old" border still matters to the extent that economic interactions between western and eastern Germany are still limited compared to the situation within these two parts of Germany.

New Economic Geography, Spatial Wage Structure, Germany

Abstract:
The evolution of city growth is usually studied for relatively short time periods. The rise and decline of cities is, however, typically a process that takes many decades or even centuries. In this paper we study the evolution of Italian cities over the period 1300-1861. The first contribution of our paper is that we use various descriptive statistics on individual city sizes and the city-size distribution as a whole to highlight the main characteristics of Italy's urban system such as the differences between northern and southern Italy. Our second, and main, contribution is that our data allow for panel estimation where city-size is regressed on various geographical, political and other determinants of city size for the period 1300-1861. We show that, although large shocks such as the plague epidemics are clearly visible in the data, the main determinants of Italy's city growth invariably are physical geography and political predominance. Also the North-South difference turns out to be important.

Abstract:
For reasons of analytical tractability, new economic geography (NEG) models treat geography in a very simple way: attention is either confined to a simple 2-region or to an equidistant multi-region world. As a result, the main predictions regarding the impact of e.g. diminishing trade costs are based on these simple models. When doing empirical or policy work these simplifying assumptions become problematic and it may very well be that the conclusions from the simple models do not carry over to the heterogeneous geographical setting faced by the empirical researcher or policy maker. This paper tries to fill this gap by adding more realistic geography structures to the Puga (1999) model that encompasses several benchmark NEG models. By using extensive simulations we show that many, although not all, conclusions from the simple models do carry over to our multi-region setting with more realistic geography structures. Given these results, we then simulate the impact of increased EU integration on the spatial distribution of regional economic activity for a sample of 194-NUTSII regions and find that further integration will most likely be accompanied by higher levels of agglomeration.

Abstract:
Based on a new economic geography (NEG) model by Puga (1999), we use the equilibrium wage equation to estimate two key structural model parameters for the NUTS II EU regions. These estimations enable us to come up with an empirically grounded free-ness of trade parameter. In line with NEG theory, the estimation results show that a spatial wage structure exists for the EU regions. By going back to the theoretical model we then analyze the implications of the free-ness of trade parameter for the degree of agglomeration. Our main findings suggest that agglomeration forces still have only a limited spatial reach in the EU. Agglomeration forces appear to be rather localized. At the same time, confronting our empirical results with the underlying new economic geography model also brings out the limitations of empirical research in new economic geography.

Abstract:
The empirical literature on city size distributions has mainly focused on the USA. The first major contribution of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the evolution and structure of the West-German city size distribution. Using a unique annual data set that covers most of the 20th century for 62 of West-Germany's largest cities, we look at the evolution of both the city size distribution as a whole and each city separately. The West-German case is of particular interest as it has undergone major shocks, most notably WWII. Our data set allows us to identify these shocks and provide evidence on the effects of these 'quasi-natural experiments' on the city size distribution. The second major contribution of this paper is that we perform unit-root tests on individual German city sizes using a substantial number of observations to analyze the evolution of the individual cities that make up the German city size distribution. Our main findings are twofold. First, WWII has had a major and lasting impact on the city size distribution. Second, the overall city size distribution does not adhere to Zipf's Law. This second finding is largely based on the results of unit root tests for individual cities to test for Gibrat's Law, the latter being a requirement for Zipf's Law to hold for the overall city-size distribution. Together these two findings are consistent with theories emphasizing increasing returns to scale in city growth.

Abstract:
Many modern trade and growth models are characterized by multiple equilibria. In theory the analysis of multiple equilibria is possible, but in practice it is difficult to test for the presence of multiple equilibria. Based on the methodology developed by Davis and Weinstein (2004) for the case of Japanese cities and WWII, we look for multiple equilibria in a model of German city growth. The strategic bombing of Germany during WWII enables us to assess the empirical relevance of multiple equilibria in a model of city-growth. In doing so, and in addition to the Davis and Weinstein framework, we look at the spatial inter-dependencies between cities. The main findings are twofold. First, multiple equilibria seem to be present in German city growth. Our evidence supports a model with 2 stable equilibria. Second, the explicit inclusion of geography matters. Evidence for multiple equilibria is weaker when spatial interdependencies are not taken into account.

Abstract:
Recent studies of border effects have focused on the intra-country and inter-country comparison of trade flows. It is found that borders have a negative impact on the size of cross-border trade. In order to estimate border effects on a regional level one needs not only data on inter-country but also on intra-country trade. For many countries (regional) data on intra-country trade are simply lacking, which makes an analysis of border effects and border regions cumbersome. In this paper we take a different approach to measure the impact of borders. We estimate a market potential function for German regional wages and by analysing whether German border regions can be distinguished from the other regions in terms of their wages. We use a market potential function because its basic idea (regional wages fall the further one moves away from economic centers) can be grounded on different trade theories and also because the resulting wage equation is related to border effect studies based on trade flows. We use a data set for 441 German districts for the years 1992 and 1995. In general, we find some evidence that is consistent with the existence of border effects but this evidence is probably better looked upon as an indication of a strong localisation of demand spillovers on regional wages in general. Even though border effects can not be ruled out, the overriding outcome is that of a strong localization of demand spill-overs for all German regions.

economic geography, empirical estimation, Germany

Abstract:
Using German district data we estimate the structural parameters of a new economic geography model as developed by Helpman (1998) and Hanson (1998, 2001a). The advantage of the Helpman-Hanson model is that it incorporates the fact that agglomeration of economic activity increases the prices of local (nontradable) services, like housing. This model thereby provides an intuitively appealing spreading force that allows for less extreme agglomeration patterns than predicted by the bulk of new economic geography models. Generalizing the Helpman-Hanson model, we also analyze the implications for the spatial distribution of wages once the assumption of real wage equalization is dropped. If we no longer assume real wage equalization we find support for a spatial wage structure as well as for the relevance of the structural parameters of the theoretical model.