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Abstract:
We examine multinationals' optimal entry modes into foreign markets as a function of market size, FDI fixed costs, tariffs and transport costs. Our results highlight why large countries are more likely to attract acquisition investment, while intermediate-sized countries may be served predominantly through trade, even in the presence of high tariffs. Small countries are most likely to experience either FDI or no entry. We also show how these results vary with the competition intensity in the host country.

FDI fixed costs, tariffs and transport costs are crucial not only in determining whether to engage in FDI or trade, but they are also shown to influence the acquisition choice as trade and FDI threats influence the acquisition price. Finally we explore the welfare implications of tariff reductions for both the local firm and the multinational and investigate political motives to impose endogenous tariffs that influence not only the welfare of a local firm, but also the entry mode of the multinational.

Abstract:
To examine how human capital accumulation influences both economic growth and income inequality, we carefully endogenize the demand and supply of skills. We explicitly introduce the costs and externalities in education, and examine how both relate to learning-by-doing and R&D intensity.1 In addition, we endogenize the determinants of the skill-bias of labor demand: the complementarity between technology and skilled and unskilled labor. Our results identify parameters that are central to the evolution of inequality during the development process. We characterise development thresholds when countries switch endogenously from pure learning to directed R&D, and we show that technical change can generate multiple steady states that are consistent with the cross-country data on inequality and skill-premia.

Human Capital, Wage Inequality, Biased Technical Change, Threshold Externalities

Abstract:
In this paper we examine the empirical relevance of three prominent endogenous protection models. Is protection for sale, or do altruistic policy makers worry about political support? We find strong evidence that protection is indeed "for sale." The important new result is, however, that not only the existence of lobbies matters, but also the relative size of the sectoral pro and anti protection contributions. All variables of both the Influence Driven (Grossman and Helpman, 1994) and the Tariff Function (Findlay and Wellisz, 1982) models are significant at the one percent level. Novel is our application of a single, unified theoretical framework to take strict interpretations of the three theoretical models to the data. We thus extend the previous tests of the Influence Driven approach by comparing its performance to well specified alternatives. Using J tests to compare the power of the models directly, we find significant misspecification in the Political Support Function approach. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of correct specification of the Influence Driven model and find evidence of some misspecification in the Tariff Function model.

Abstract:
Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker - except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy.

Working Paper

Abstract:
In this paper we present a new database that allows deep industry-level growth accounting from 1991-2003. The database allows for the first complete analysis of the German industry performance drivers based on the contributions of 12 asset types in 52 different industries. The industry sources of productivity and output growth are crucial to the understanding of the transformation of the German economy from manufacturing to information technology and service industries. The database enables researchers to develop an adequate picture of the sources of growth using standard growth accounting techniques. We formally document the new data series and its origins, with special focus on the capital stock and capital service data.

growth accounting, industry productivity analysis

Abstract:
While the US experienced two successive labor productivity surges in 1995 and 2000, Germany's productivity declined dramatically during the same period. We examine the sources of Germany's productivity demise using the ifo industry growth accounting database that provides detailed industry-level investment information. While much attention has focused on the reduction in German labor hours, our data show that Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) investment in Germany was deeply lacking in the mid 1990's as compared to the US. The transition to the new economy mitigated the German productivity slowdown, but did not reverse it. After 2000, we find that a recovery in Non-ICT investment was offset by a widespread collapse in German total factor productivity. Over half of German industries (accounting for almost 50 percent of German output) experienced negative TFP growth. This second major difference between the US and German industry performance explains Germany's secular departure from the technological frontier.

growth accounting, industry productivity analysis, information and communication technology

Abstract:
The literature measuring the impact of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) and WTO membership on trade flows has produced remarkably diverse results. Rose's (2004) seminal paper reports a range of specifications that show no WTO effects, but Subramanian and Wei (2007) contend that he does not fully control for multilateral resistance (which could bias WTO estimates). Subramanian and Wei (2007) address multilateral resistance comprehensively to report strong WTO trade effects for industrialized countries but do not account for unobserved bilateral heterogeneity (which could inflate WTO estimates). We unify these two approaches by accounting for both multilateral resistance and unobserved bilateral heterogeneity, while also allowing for individual trade effects of PTAs. WTO effects vanish and remain insignificant throughout once multilateral resistance, unobserved bilateral heterogeneity, and individual PTA effects are introduced. The result is robust to the use of alternative definitions and coding conventions for WTO membership that have been employed by Rose (2004), Tomz et al. (2007), or by Subramanian and Wei's (2007).

Working Papers

Abstract:
We investigate country heterogeneity in cross-country growth regressions. In contrast to the previous literature that focuses on low-income countries, this study also highlights growth determinants in high-income (OECD) countries. We introduce Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) to address not only potential parameter heterogeneity, but also the model uncertainty inherent in growth regressions. IBMA is essential to our estimation because the simultaneous consideration of model uncertainty and parameter heterogeneity in standard growth regressions increases the number of candidate regressors beyond the processing capacity of ordinary BMA algorithms. Our analysis generates three results that strongly support different dimensions of parameter heterogeneity. First, while a large number of regressors can be identified as growth determinants in Non-OECD countries, the same regressors are irrelevant for OECD countries. Second, Non-OECD countries and the global sample feature only a handful of common growth determinants. Third, and most devastatingly, the long list of variables included in popular cross-country datasets does not contain regressors that begin to satisfactorily characterize the basic growth determinants in OECD countries.

growth regressions, growth determinants of OECD countries, parameter heterogeneity, model uncertainty, Iterative Bayesian Model Avering

Abstract:
The introduction of the euro generated substantial interest in measuring the impact of currency unions (CUs) on trade flows. Rose's (2000) initial estimates suggested a tripling of trade and created a literature in search of more reasonable CU effects. A recent meta-analysis of this literature shows that subsequent papers quantify CU trade impacts at 30-90 percent. However, most recent studies use shorter time series and fewer countries than Rose in his original work. We revisit Rose's original benchmark, extend the dataset, and address Baldwin's (2006) critiques regarding the proper specification of gravity models in large panels by simultaneously accounting for multilateral resistance and unobserved bilateral heterogeneity. This produces a robust average CU trade effect of 45 percent. Yet, the trade impacts of individual CUs vary substantially and are generally lower than those of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Our revised benchmark can be used as a yardstick for future studies to delineate how estimates differ due to new data or differences in econometric specifications.

Bilateral trade, Economic models, Markets, Monetary systems, Monetary unions, Trade integration, Trade relations

Abstract:
Investments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are the source of the global growth resurgence that commenced in the mid-1990s. Most studies focus on broad ICT measures, or on computer hardware; here we examine the contributions of software-intensive industries to productivity growth. The price of prepackaged software has been falling exponentially since the 1960s, which has led to substitutions towards software investments, and to reductions in the total cost of ICT hardware investments. We use novel German ICT investment data to show that software-intensive industries have been the crucial determinant of German productivity growth since 1995. Not only did these industries contribute strongly to productivity growth, but they offset declining investments and productivities in other industries. Post 1995, other industries’ investments in new equipment per worker collapsed, while software-intensive industries’ capital investments rose steadily to generate over half of Germany's productivity growth by 2000–04. We document sharply diverging productivity paths for software-intensive and other (non-software-intensive) industries. Post 1991, total factor productivity (TFP) declined secularly in other industries to generate a −0.39 percent drag on German labor productivity by 2000–04, while TFP in software-intensive industries rose steadily to contribute 35 percent to German labor productivity growth by the same period. Overall, the results combine to paint a stark picture of rising capital per worker and TFP growth in software-intensive sectors, contrasting with falling capital per worker and increasingly negative TFP growth in other sectors. About two-thirds of the impact from software-intensive industries is generated by investments in prepackaged and purchased custom software. (JEL codes: O03, O04)

Software-intensive industries and productivity growth, industry productivity analysis, growth accounting

Abstract:
This paper explores the relationship between aggregate and relative congestion, returns to scale and economic growth. Aggregate congestion reduces the effective productivity of capital; relative congestion reduces the effective productivity of labour. Both forms of congestion adversely affect the equilibrium growth rate, although their relative effects dependupon aggregate returns to scale. The two forms of congestion have contrasting effects on the transitional dynamics. Relative congestion retards the rate of adjustment; aggregate congestion accelerates it. The externalities generated by congestion and non-optimal expenditure can be fully corrected, both during the transition and in steady state, by a time-invariant income tax.