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Abstract:
Most countries commonly classified as "in transition" are still recognisably different from other countries with a similar income per capita in some respects: a larger share of their work force is in industry, they use more energy, they have a more extensive infrastructure and invest more in schooling. However, in terms of the "software" necessary for a market economy, two groups emerge: the countries that are candidates for EU membership seem to have partly completed the transition. By contrast, the countries from the former Soviet Union that form the CIS and the South-eastern European (SEE) countries, are still largely lagging behind in terms of the enforcement of property rights and the development of financial markets.

Transition economies, development level

Abstract:
This paper tests directly a geography and growth model using regional data for Europe, the US, and Japan during different time periods. We set up a standard geography and growth model with a poverty trap and derive a log-linearized growth equation that corresponds directly to a threshold regression technique in econometrics. In particular, we test whether regions with high population density (centers) grow faster and have a permanently higher per capita income than regions with low population density (peripheries). We find geography driven divergence for US states and European regions after 1980. Population density is superior in explaining divergence to initial income which the most important official EU eligibility criterium for regional aid is built on. Divergence is stronger on smaller regional units (NUTS3) than on larger ones (NUTS2). Thus, the wavelength of agglomeration forces seems to be rather small in Europe. Human capital and R&D are transmission channels of divergence processes. Human capital based poverty trap models are an alternative explanation for regional poverty traps.

Threshold estimation, Economic geography, Regional income convergence, Poverty trap, Regime shifts, Bootstrap