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Abstract:
We present a model of asset valuation in which short-selling is achieved by searching for security lenders and by bargaining over the terms of the lending fee. If lendable securities are difficult to locate, then the price of the security is initially elevated, and expected to decline over time. This price decline is to be anticipated, for example, after an initial public offering (IPO), among other cases, and is increasing in the degree of heterogeneity of beliefs of investors about the likely future value of the security. The prospect of lending fees may push the initial price of a security above even the most optimistic buyer's valuation of the security's future dividends. A higher price can thus be obtained with some shorting than if shorting is disallowed.

Abstract:
We present a model of asset valuation in which short-selling is achieved by searching for security lenders and by bargaining over the terms of the lending fee. If lendable securities are difficult to locate, then the price of the security is initially elevated, and expected to decline over time. This price decline is to be anticipated, for example, after an initial public offering (IPO), among other cases, and is increasing in the degree of heterogeneity of beliefs of investors about the likely future value of the security. The prospect of lending fees may push the initial price of a security above even the most optimistic buyer's valuation of the security's future dividends. A higher price can thus be obtained with some shorting than if shorting is disallowed.

Abstract:
We analyze the design and renegotiation of covenants in debt contracts as a particular example of the contractual assignment of property rights under asymmetric information. In particular, we consider a setting where future firm investments are efficient in some states, but also involve a transfer from the lender(s) to shareholders. While there is symmetric information regarding investment efficiency, managers are better informed about any potential transfer than the lender. The lender can learn this information, but at a cost. In this setting, we show that the simple adverse selection problem leads to the allocation of greater ex-ante decision rights to the uninformed party than would follow under symmetric (in particular, full) information. Consequently, ex-post renegotiation is in turn biased towards the uninformed party giving up these excessive rights. In many settings, this result yields the opposite implication from standard Property Rights results regarding contracting under incomplete contracts and ex-ante investments, whereby rights should be allocated to minimize inefficiencies due to distortions in ex-ante investments. Indeed, for debt contracts as well as other settings, the uninformed party, who receives strong decision rights in our setting, is likely to have few significant ex-ante investments to undertake relative to the informed party.

Abstract:
We model the demand-pressure effect on prices when options cannot be perfectly hedged. The model shows that demand pressure in one option contract increases its price by an amount proportional to the variance of the unhedgeable part of the option. Similarly, the demand pressure increases the price of any other option by an amount proportional to the covariance of their unhedgeable parts. Empirically, we identify aggregate positions of dealers and end users using a unique dataset, and show that demand-pressure effects contribute to well-known option-pricing puzzles. Indeed, time-series tests show that demand helps explain the overall expensiveness and skew patterns of both index options and single-stock options.

Option, demand, valuation, intermediation, market makers, implied volatility, hedging, price pressure, risk, dealers

Abstract:
We model the demand-pressure effect on prices when options cannot be perfectly hedged. The model shows that demand pressure in one option contract increases its price by an amount proportional to the variance of the unhedgeable part of the option. Similarly, the demand pressure increases the price of any other option by an amount proportional to the covariance of their unhedgeable parts. Empirically, we identify aggregate positions of dealers and end users using a unique dataset, and show that demand-pressure effects help explain well-known option-pricing puzzles. First, end users are net long index options, especially out-of-money puts, which helps explain their apparent expensiveness and the smirk. Second, demand patterns help explain the cross section of prices and skews of single-stock options.

Options, demand pressure, price pressure, frictions, liquidity

Abstract:
This paper derives in closed form the optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean-reversion speeds. The optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio, the optimal portfolio absent trading costs, and the optimal portfolio based on future expected returns and transaction costs. Predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight since they lead to a favorable positioning both now and in the future. We implement the optimal policy for commodity futures and show that the resulting portfolio has superior returns net of trading costs relative to more naive benchmarks. Finally, we derive natural equilibrium implications, including that demand shocks with faster mean reversion command a higher return premium.

dynamic trading, portfolio choice, predictability, transaction costs

Abstract:
This paper derives in closed form the optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean-reversion speeds. The optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio, the optimal portfolio absent trading costs, and the optimal portfolio based on future expected returns and transaction costs. Predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight since they lead to a favorable positioning both now and in the future. We implement the optimal policy for commodity futures and show that the resulting portfolio has superior returns net of trading costs relative to more naive benchmarks. Finally, we derive natural equilibrium implications, including that demand shocks with faster mean reversion command a higher return premium.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
This paper derives in closed form the optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean reversion speeds. The optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio, the optimal current portfolio absent trading costs, and the optimal portfolio based on future expected returns. Predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight since they lead to a favorable positioning both now and in the future. We implement the optimal policy for commodity futures and show that the resulting portfolio has superior returns net of trading costs relative to more naive benchmarks. Finally, we derive natural equilibrium implications, including that demand shocks with faster mean reversion command a higher return premium.

dynamic trading, predictability, transaction costs, portfolio choice

Abstract:
In this paper we study the implications of general-purpose technological growth for asset prices. The model features two types of shocks: ``small", frequent, and disembodied shocks to productivity and ``large" technological innovations, which are embodied into new vintages of the capital stock. While the former affect the economy on impact, the latter affect the economy with lags, since firms need to first adopt the new technologies through investment. The process of adoption leads to cycles in asset valuations and risk premia as firms convert the growth options associated with the new technologies into assets in place. This process can help provide a unified, investment-based view of some well documented phenomena such as the asset-valuation patterns around major technological innovations, the countercyclical behavior of returns, the lead-lag relationship between the stock market and output, and the increasing patterns of consumption-return correlations over longer horizons.

Production-based asset pricing, continuous-time methods, macro-finance, growth options, irreversible investment, technology adoption, vintage models

Abstract:
Many securities are traded repeatedly by asymmetrically informed investors. We study how current and future adverse selection affect the required return. We find that the bid-ask spread generated by adverse selection is not a cost, on average, for agents who trade, and hence the bid-ask spread does not directly influence the required return. Adverse selection leads to trading-decision distortions, however, implying allocation costs, which affect the required return. We derive explicitly the effect on required returns, and show that our result differs from models that consider the bid-ask spread to be an exogenous cost.

Abstract:
We present a model of asset valuation in which short-selling is achieved by searching for security lenders and by bargaining over the terms of the lending fee. If lendable securities are di cult to locate, then the price of the security is initially elevated, and expected to decline over time. This price decline is to be anticipated, for example,after an initial public o ering (IPO), among other cases, and is increasing in the degree of heterogeneity of beliefs of investors about the likely future value of the security. The initial price of a securitymay be above even the most optimistic buyer's valuation of the security's future dividends, because of the additional prospect of lendingfees for owners.

Abstract:
We provide the impact on asset prices of search-and-bargaining frictions in over-the-counter markets. Under certain conditions, illiquidity discounts are higher when counterparties are harder to find, when sellers have less bargaining power, when the fraction of qualified owners is smaller, or when risk aversion, volatility, or hedging demand are larger. Supply shocks cause prices to jump, and then 'recover' over time, with a time signature that is exaggerated by search frictions. We discuss a variety of empirical implications.

Search, bargaining, liquidity, risk, asset pricing

Abstract:
We provide the impact on asset prices of search-and-bargaining frictions in over-the-counter markets. Under certain conditions, illiquidity discounts are higher when counterparties are harder to find, when sellers have less bargaining power, when the fraction of qualified owners is smaller, or when risk aversion, volatility, or hedging demand are larger. Supply shocks cause prices to jump, and then "recover" over time, with a time signature that is exaggerated by search frictions. We discuss a variety of empirical implications.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
We study how intermediation and asset prices in over-the-counter markets are affected by illiquidity associated with search and bargaining. We compute explicitly the prices at which investors trade with each other as well as marketmakers' bid and ask prices in a dynamic model with strategic agents. Bid-ask spreads are lower if investors can more easily find other investors, or have easier access to multiple marketmakers. With a monopolistic marketmaker, bid-ask spreads are higher if investors have easier access to the marketmaker. We characterize endogenous search and welfare, and discuss empirical implications.

Abstract:
This paper provides a model of the interaction between risk-management practices and market liquidity. On one hand, tighter risk management reduces the maximum position an institution can take, thus the amount of liquidity it can offer to the market. On the other hand, risk managers can take into account that lower liquidity amplifies the effective risk of a position by lengthening the time it takes to sell it. The main result of the paper is that a feedback effect can arise: tighter risk management reduces liquidity, which in turn leads to tighter risk management, etc. This can help explain sudden drops in liquidity and, since liquidity is priced, in prices in connection with increased volatility or decreased risk-bearing capacity.

Abstract:
This paper provides a model of the interaction between risk-management practices and market liquidity. On one hand, tighter risk management reduces the maximum position an institution can take, thus the amount of liquidity it can offer to the market. On the other hand, risk managers can take into account that lower liquidity amplifies the effective risk of a position by lengthening the time it takes to sell it. The main result of the paper is that a feedback effect can arise: tighter risk management reduces liquidity, which in turn leads to tighter risk management, etc. This can help explain sudden drops in liquidity and, since liquidity is priced, in prices in connection with increased volatility or decreased risk-bearing capacity.

liquidity, risk management, feedback effect, crises

Abstract:
We study asset-pricing implications of innovation in a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations economy. Innovation increases the competitive pressure on existing firms and workers, reducing the profits of existing firms and eroding the human capital of older workers. Due to the lack of inter-generational risk sharing, innovation creates a systematic risk factor, which we call ``displacement risk.'' This risk helps explain several empirical patterns, including the existence of the growth-value factor in returns, the value premium, and the high equity premium. We assess the magnitude of displacement risk using estimates of inter-cohort consumption differences across households and find support for the model.

Asset Pricing, Equity Premium, Value Premium, Intergenerational Risk, Innovation, Displacement Risk

Abstract:
We provide the impact on asset prices of trade by search and bargaining. Under natural conditions, prices are higher if investors can find each other more easily, if sellers have more bargaining power, or if the fraction of qualified owners is greater. If agents face risk limits, then higher volatility leads to greater difficulty locating unconstrained buyers, resulting in lower prices. Information can fail to be revealed through trading when search is difficult. We discuss a variety of financial applications and testable implications.

Abstract:
We provide the impact on asset prices of trade by search and bargaining. Under natural conditions, prices are higher if investors can find each other more easily, if sellers have more bargaining power, or if the fraction of qualified owners is greater. If agents face risk limits, then higher volatility leads to greater difficulty locating unconstrained buyers, resulting in lower prices. Information can fail to be revealed through trading when search is difficult. We discuss a variety of financial applications and testable implications.

Abstract:
We study the impact on asset prices of illiquidity associated with search and bargaining in an economy in which agents can trade only when they find each other. Marketmakers' prices are higher and bid-ask spreads are lower if investors can find each other more easily. Prices become Walrasian as investors' or marketmakers' search intensities get large. Endogenizing search intensities yields natural welfare implications. Information can fail to be revealed through trading when search is difficult.

Abstract:
We study the impact on asset prices of illiquidity associated with search and bargaining in an economy in which agents can trade only when they find each other. Marketmakers' prices are higher and bid-ask spreads are lower if investors can find each other more easily. Prices become Walrasian as investors' or marketmakers' search intensities get large. Endogenizing search intensities yields natural welfare implications. Information can fail to be revealed through trading when search is difficult.

Abstract:
We model the demand-pressure effect on prices when options cannot be perfectly hedged. The model shows that demand pressure in one option contract increases its price by an amount proportional to the variance of the unhedgeable part of the option. Similarly, the demand pressure increases the price of any other option by an amount proportional to the covariance of their unhedgeable parts. Empirically, we identify aggregate positions of dealers and end users using a unique dataset, and show that demand-pressure effects help explain well-known option-pricing puzzles. First, end users are net long index options, especially out-of-money puts, which helps explain their apparent expensiveness and the smirk. Second, demand patterns help explain the prices of single-stock options.

Abstract:
We study how intermediation and asset prices are affected by illiquidity associated with search and bargaining. We compute explicitly marketmakers&rsqou; bid and ask prices in a dynamic model with strategic agents. Bid-ask spreads are lower if investors can more easily find other investors or have more easy access to multiple marketmakers. This distinguishes our theory from the information-based intermediation , which implies higher spreads in connection with higher investor sophistication. With a monopolistic marketmaker, bid-ask spreads are higher if investors have easier access to the marketmaker. We discuss several empirical implications and study endogenous search and welfare.

Abstract:
We study asset-pricing implications of innovation in a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations economy. Innovation increases the competitive pressure on existing firms and workers, reducing the profits of existing firms and eroding the human capital of older workers. Due to the lack of inter-generational risk sharing, innovation creates a systematic risk factor, which we call "displacement risk." This risk helps explain several empirical patterns, including the existence of the growth-value factor in returns, the value premium, and the high equity premium. We assess the magnitude of displacement risk using estimates of inter-cohort consumption differences across households and find support for the model.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
In this paper we study the implications of general-purpose technological growth for asset prices. The model features two types of shocks: "small", frequent, and disembodied shocks to productivity and large technological innovations, which are embodied into new vintages of the capital stock. While the former affect the economy on impact, the latter affect the economy with lags, since firms need to first adopt the new technologies through investment. The process of adoption leads to cycles in asset valuations and risk premia as firms convert the growth options associated with the new technologies into assets in place. This process can help provide a unified, investment-based view of some well documented phenomena such as the asset-valuation patterns around major technological innovations, the countercyclical behavior of returns, the lead-lag relationship between the stock market and output, and the increasing patterns of consumption-return correlations over longer horizons.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Abstract:
An important feature of financial markets is that securities are traded repeatedly by asymmetrically informed investors. We study how current and future adverse selection affect the required return. We find that the bid-ask spread generated by adverse selection is not a cost, on average, for agents who trade, and hence the bid-ask spread does not directly in uence the required return. Adverse selection contributes to trading-decision distortions, however, implying allocation costs, which affect the required return. We explicitly derive the effect of adverse selection on required returns, and show how our result differs from models that consider the bid-ask spread to be an exogenous cost.

Abstract:
This paper studies trade in repeated auction markets. We show, for conditionally independent signals, that an owner s decision to sell, expected prices, and continuation values are the same for a large class of auction mechanisms, extending the Revenue Equivalence Theorem to a multi-period setting. Further, we derive a robust No-Trade Theorem. For conditionally affiliated signals, we give conditions under which revenue ranking implies volume and welfare ranking. In particular, we show that English auctions have larger volume and welfare than second-price auctions, which in turn have larger volume and welfare than first-price auctions.

auctions, revenue equivalence, no trade, volume, welfare

Abstract:
This paper studies portfolio choice and pricing in markets in which immediate trading may be impossible. It departs from the literature by removing restrictions on asset holdings, and finds that optimal positions depend significantly and naturally on liquidity: When expected future liquidity is high, agents take more extreme positions, given that they do not have to hold those positions for long when they become undesirable. Consequently, larger trades should be observed in markets with more frequent trading. Liquidity need not affect the price significantly, however, because liquidity has offsetting impacts on different agents’ demands. This result highlights the importance of unrestricted portfolio choice. The paper draws parallels with the transaction-cost literature and clarifies the relationship between the price level and the realized trading frequency in this literature.

illiquidity, search, portfolio choice, illiquidity discount, equilibrium, illiquidity discount

Abstract:
In this discussion of risk analysis and market valuation of collateralized debt obligations, we illustrate the effects of correlation and prioritization on valuation and discuss the "diversity score" (a measure of the risk of the CDO collateral pool that has been used for CDO risk analysis by rating agencies) in a simple jump diffusion setting for correlated default intensities.

Abstract:
We propose a study of an important source of stock market risk, the displacement risk. We focus on the fundamental inequality among firms and consumers with respect to technological innovation. New firms are the primary innovators who increase the overall productivity, but also steal business from older firms. Likewise, skills of younger households are better aligned with new technologies, while the human capital of older agents does not quite keep up with technological progress. Innovation activity increases total output while reducing the share of existing firms' profits in aggregate output. This displacement risk makes households reluctant to own stocks, particularly those of value firms, whose output is relatively exposed to the risk of increased innovation and competition by new firms, while assigning hedging value to growth firms, which profit from innovation. We propose a quantitative general-equilibrium model of displacement risk and offer an intuitive fundamental explanation of several basic empirical asset-pricing facts, including the high value premium, the high equity premium, and the low and stable risk-free rate. Our preliminary calibration results suggest that our model performs well quantitatively. Moreover, our model has unique empirical implications connecting historical returns on value and growth stocks to cross-sectional differences in consumption among households. Preliminary empirical analysis supports these implications of our theory.