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Abstract:
Large-scale environmental programs generally commit substantial societal resources, making the evaluation of their actual effects on the relevant outcomes imperative. As the example of the subsidization of energy-saving appliances illustrates, much of the applied environmental economics literature has yet to confront the problem of proper attribution of effects to underlying causes on a convincing methodological basis. This paper argues that recent results in the econometrics and statistics literature on program evaluation could be utilized to advance considerably in this context. In particular, the construction of a credible counterfactual situation is at the heart of the formal statistical evaluation problem. Even when controlled experiments are not a viable option, appropriate approaches might succeed where traditional empirical strategies fail to uncover the effects of environmental interventions.

Environmental policy, energy-conservation programs, experiments, observational studies, counterfactual

Abstract:
Large-scale environmental programs generally commit substantial societal resources, making the evaluation of their actual effects on the relevant outcomes imperative. As the example of the subsidization of energy-saving appliances illustrates, much of the applied environmental economics literature has yet to confront the problem of proper attribution of effects to underlying causes on a convincing methodological basis. This paper argues that recent results in the econometrics and statistics literature on program evaluation could be utilized to advance considerably in this context. In particular, the construction of a credible counterfactual situation is at the heart of the formal statistical evaluation problem. Even when controlled experiments are not a viable option, appropriate approaches might succeed where traditional empirical strategies fail to uncover the effects of environmental interventions.

Environmental Policy, Energy-Conservation Programs, Experiments, Observational Studies, Counterfactual

Abstract:
While both fundamental types of abatement measures mitigate the adverse environmental impacts of production, cleaner production technologies are frequently more advantageous than end-of-pipe technologies for environmental and economic reasons. This paper analyzes a variety of factors that might enhance firms' propensity to implement cleaner products and production technologies instead of end-of-pipe technologies. On the basis of a unique facility-level data set derived from a recent OECD survey, we find a clear dominance of cleaner production in seven OECD countries: Surprisingly, 76.8% of the facilities report that they invest predominantly in cleaner production technologies. With regard to environmental product innovations, the large majority of facilities reports that the measures they have undertaken to reduce environmental impacts were geared at production processes and not so much at products. Our estimation results are based on multinomial logit models which indicate that regulatory measures and the stringency of environmental policies are positively correlated with end-of-pipe technologies, while cost savings, general management systems, and specific environmental management tools tend to favor clean production. We conclude that improvements towards cleaner products and production may be reached by the continuous development and wider diffusion of these management tools. Improvements may also be stimulated by widening the cost gap between the two types of technologies, for instance, by additionally charging for waste and energy use.

Cleaner production, end-of-pipe-technologies, technological innovation, technological change, government policy, discrete choice models

Abstract:
It is frequently hypothesized that environmental management systems (EMSs) may improve a firm's environmental performance. Whether or not this hypothesis is true is as important from the perspective of environmental policy as questions relating to the relevant incentives for (1) a firm's voluntary adoption of an EMS and (2) its environmental innovation behavior. Based on ample empirical evidence for German manufacturing, this paper addresses these issues on the basis of a recursive bivariate probit model that explicitly takes into account that a facility's decision on innovation activities is correlated with the decision on EMS certification. Our empirical results indicate that environmental innovation activities are not associated with EMS certification nor any other single policy instrument. Rather, innovation behavior seems to be correlated to the stringency of environmental policy.

Environmental Technological Change, Environmental Management

Abstract:
Guaranteeing tax reductions and exemptions, the European governments intend to increase the share of biofuels in total EU fuel consumption to 5.75% by 2010. The financial support of this EU objective is frequently justified by expected positive environmental impacts, most notably the mitigation of climate change, and by favorable employment effects in the agricultural sector. This paper investigates the environmental and economic implications of the support of rapeseed-based biodiesel as a substitute for fossil diesel.Based on a survey of recent empirical studies, we find that the energy and greenhouse gas balances of this environmental strategy are clearly positive.Yet, its overall environmental balance is currently far from being unequivocally positive. Most importantly, biodiesel is not a cost-efficient emission abatement strategy. Thus, for the abatement of greenhouse gases,we recommend more efficient alternatives based on both renewable and conventional technologies.

Renewable Energy, Environmental Policy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Abstract:
The EU-wide Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), established in 2005, is a key pillar of Europe's strategy to attain compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. Under this scheme, CO2 allowances have thus far been allocated largely free of charge. This paper demonstrates that such cost-free allocation, commonly called grandfathering, implies an increase in electricity prices even when strong competition prevails on electricity markets. As our estimations for Germany's power sector show, these price increases result in substantial windfall profits, giving rise to public skepticism and calls for an auctioning of certificates in the future. While empirical evidence on the ETS' impacts is scant, the findings reviewed here indicate that even in the absence of certificate auctioning, energy-intensive industry sectors, such as primary aluminum production, may suffer heavily from the ETS-induced electricity price increases. We therefore argue that an abrupt transition to a complete auctioning system may endanger the competitive position of energy-intensive industries in Europe, unless all other major industrial and transition countries are integrated into a global emissions trading system.

Grandfathering, auctioning, competition

Abstract:
This article demonstrates that the large feed-in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in Germany constitute a subsidization regime that, if extended to 2020, threatens to reach a level comparable to that of German hard coal production, a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention. Yet, as a consequence of the coexistence of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ETS alone. Similarly disappointing is the net employment balance, which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic support. Along the lines of the International Energy Agency (IEA 2007:77), we therefore recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed-in tariffs granted for solar-based electricity. Ultimately, producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options.

Energy policy, energy security, learning effects

Abstract:
In Germany, hard coal has been subsidized for almost half a century. Despite the declining significance of hard coal production for the domestic labor market, the magnitude of subsidies increased until the middle of the last decade. In 1996, they peaked at 6.7 billion Euros. While German hard coal subsidies have been shrinking to 2.7 billion Euros. In 2005, it is very likely that they will be extended well into the next decade and even beyond. This article discusses the feeble arguments raised by the proponents of hard coal subsidization in Germany and other EU countries. Most importantly, in addition to the drain imposed on public budgets, these subsidies imply a substantial opportunity cost, leading funds away from alternative, more beneficial public investments. From a social welfare perspective, we therefore recommend the rapid abolition of these subsidies not only in Germany, where in nominal terms the accumulated amount of subsidies has now by far exceeded 130 billion Euros, but all across Europe.

Energy policy, energy security, coal mining

Abstract:
Any serious empirical study of factor substitutability has to allow the data to display complementarity as well as substitutability. The standard approach reflecting this idea is a translog specification - this is also the approach used by numerous studies analyzing the relative capital-skill complementarity hypothesis formulated by GRILICHES (1969). According to this hypothesis, the degree of substitutability between skilled labor and capital is lower than that for unskilled labor and capital. Yet, the results of empirical studies investigating this hypothesis are controversial. This paper offers a straightforward explanation: Using a translog approach reduces the issue of factor substitutability or complementarity to a question of cost shares. Our review of translog studies mentioned in HAMERMESH's (1993) summary on the demand for heterogeneous labor demonstrates that this argument is empirically relevant - all these studies can be reconciled with each other on the basis of the cost-share argument.

Substitutability, Translog Cost Function

Abstract:
Any serious empirical study of factor substitutability has to allow the data to display complementarity as well as substitutability. The standard approach reflecting this idea is a translog specification - this is also the approach used by numerous studies analyzing the relative capital-skill complementarity hypothesis formulated by GRILICHES (1969). According to this hypothesis, the degree of substitutability between skilled labor and capital is lower than that for unskilled labor and capital. Yet, the results of empirical studies investigating this hypothesis are controversial. This paper offers a straightforward explanation: Using a translog approach reduces the issue of factor substitutability or complementarity to a question of cost shares. Our review of translog studies mentioned in HAMERMESH's (1993) summary on the demand for heterogeneous labor demonstrates that this argument is empirically relevant - all these studies can be reconciled with each other on the basis of the cost-share argument.

Abstract:
Along with the oil price, concerns about the security of energy supply have soared once again in recent years. Yet, more than 30 years after the OPEC oil embargo in 1973, energy security still remains a diffuse concept. This paper conceives a statistical indicator that aims at characterizing the energy supply risk of nations that are heavily dependent on energy imports. Our indicator condenses the bulk of empirical information on the imports of fossil fuels originating from a multitude of export countries as well as data on the indigenous contribution to the domestic energy supply into a single parameter. Applying the proposed concept to empirical energy data on Germany and the U.S. (1980-2004), we find that there is an inter-temporally increasing gap in the energy supply risk between both countries, with Germany suffering much more from a tensed energy supply situation today than the U.S.

Herfindahl index, energy supply risk indicator

Abstract:
This paper compares technologies across space and time on the basis of factual and counterfactual substitution elasticities and argues that differences in estimated substitution elasticities should be decomposed into two counterfactual components. While the first component is designed to indicate how the ease of substitution is altered by varied economic circumstances, the second addresses the question of how technologies would compare under genuinely comparable situations. This argument is illustrated by the example of energy-price elasticities of capital before and after the oil crisis of the early 1970s.

Counterfactuals, Substitutability, Translog Cost Function

Abstract:
Using a panel of household travel diary data collected in Germany between 1997 and 2005, this study assesses the effectiveness of fuel efficiency improvements by econometrically estimating the rebound effect, which measures the extent to which higher efficiency causes additional travel. Following a theoretical discussion outlining three alternative definitions of the rebound effect, the econometric analysis generates corresponding estimates using panel methods to control for the effects of unobservables that could otherwise produce spurious results. Our results, which range between 57% and 67%, indicate a rebound that is substantially larger than obtained in other studies, calling into question the efficacy of policies targeted at reducing energy consumption via technological efficiency.

Automobile travel, rebound effect, panel models

Abstract:
As part of its efforts to reach the targets of the Kyoto Protocol, the European Commission is currently considering a new directive to reduce the per-kilometer CO2 emissions of newly registered automobiles. This paper critically assesses this proposal with respect to its economic and technological underpinnings. We argue that the proposal's reliance on targets based on per-kilometer emissions not only conceals the true costs of compliance and thereby stifles informed public discourse, but is also less cost-effective than alternative measures such as emissions trading.We further examine the proposal's underlying assumptions, finding that these misrepresent the current state of automotive technology and therefore may overestimate the feasibility of achieving the suggested emissions targets. Alternative targets are consequently proposed that are argued to more accurately reflect the industry's technological evolution to date.

Technological progress, private automobiles, efficiency standards

Abstract:
Any researcher would certainly agree with Hamermesh's (1993:34) intuition about separability that the ease of substitution between any two production factors should be unaffected by a third factor that is separable from the others. This paper emphasizes that such a notion of separability needs to be more restrictive than the classical separability concept is. We thus coin the notion of strict separability that implies the classical concept. By applying both separability concepts in a translog approach to German manufacturing data (1978-1990), we focus on the empirical question of whether the omission of energy affects the conclusions about the ease of substitution among nonenergy factors. We find ample empirical evidence to doubt the assumption that energy is separable from all other production factors even in the relatively mild form of classical separability. At least under separability aspects, therefore, energy appears to be an indispensable production factor.

Substitution, Translog Cost Functions

Abstract:
Using a panel of household travel diary data collected in Germany between 1997 and 2005, this study assesses the effectiveness of fuel efficiency improvements by econometrically estimating the rebound effect, describing the extent to which higher efficiency causes additional travel.Following a theoretical discussion outlining three alternative definitions of the rebound effect, the econometric analysis generates corresponding estimates using panel methods to control for the effects of unobservables that could otherwise produce spurious results. Our results, which range between 56% and 66%, indicate a rebound that is substantially larger than obtained in other studies, calling into question the efficacy of recently implemented measures in the European Union targeted at technological innovations in the automotive sector.

Household production, rebound effect, panel models

Abstract:
Focusing on travel survey data from Germany, this paper investigates the determinants of automobile travel, with the specific aim of quantifying the effects of fuel prices and fuel economy. The analysis is predicated on the notion that car mileage is a two-stage decision process, comprising the discrete choice of whether to own a car and the continuous choice of distance traveled. To capture this process, we employ censored regression models consisting of Probit and OLS estimators, which allows us to gauge the extent to which sample selectivity may bias the results. Our elasticity estimates indicate a significant positive association between increased fuel economy and increased driving, and a significantly negative fuel-price elasticity, which ranges between -35% and -41%. Taken together, these results suggest that fuel taxes are likely to be a more effective policy measure in reducing emissions than fuel-efficiency standards.

Automobile travel, rebound effect, two-part model

Abstract:
The security of energy supply has again become a similarly hot topic as it was during the oil crises in the 1970s, not least due to the recent historical oil price peaks. In this paper, we analyze the energy security situation of the G7 countries using a statistical risk indicator and empirical energy data for the years 1978 through 2007. We find that Germany's energy supply risk has risen substantially since the oil price crises of the 1970s, whereas France has managed to reduce its risk dramatically, most notably through the deployment of nuclear power plants. As a result of the legally stipulated nuclear phase-out, Germany's supply risk can be expected to rise further and to approach the level of Italy. Due to its resource poverty, Italy has by far the highest energy supply risk among G7 countries.

Herfindahl Index, Energy Supply Risk Indicator

Abstract:
Interaction effects capture the impact of one explanatory variable x1 on the marginal effect of another explanatory variable x2. To explore interaction effects, so-called interaction terms x1x2 are typically included in estimation specifications. While in linear models the effect of a marginal change in the interaction term is equal to the interaction effect, this equality generally does not hold in non-linear specifications (AI, NORTON, 2003). This paper provides for a general derivation of marginal and interaction effects in both linear and non-linear models and calculates the formulae of the marginal and interaction eff ects resulting from Heckman’s sample selection model as well as the Two-Part Model, two commonly employed censored regression models. Drawing on a survey of automobile use from Germany, we argue that while it is important to test for the significance of interaction effects, their size conveys limited substantive content. More meaningful, and also more easy to grasp, are the conditional marginal effects pertaining to two variables that are assumed to interact.

Censored regression models, interaction terms

Abstract:
Focusing on individual motorists in car-owning households in Germany, this paper econometrically investigates the determinants of automobile travel with the specific aim of quantifying the effects of fuel prices and person-level attributes on travel conducted over a five-day week and weekend. Our analysis is predicated on the notion that car use is an individual decision, albeit one that is dependent on intra-household allocation processes, thereby building on a growing body of literature that has identified the importance of socioeconomic factors such as employment status, gender, and the presence of children in determining both access to the car and distance driven. To capture this two-stage decision process, we employ the Two-Part Model, which consists of Probit and OLS estimators, and derive elasticity estimates that incorporate both the discrete and continuous choices pertaining to car use. With fuel price elasticity estimates ranging between -0.42 and -0.48, our results suggest raising prices via fuel taxes to be a promising energy conservation and climate protection measure.

Automobile travel, Two-Part Model, interaction effects