• Selected
• Entire List

Abstract:
In this paper, we assess the economic impact on the Spanish economy resulting from European Union enlargement.

We present a detailed analysis of the process of negotiation for candidate countries and an outline of their economic situation, as well as a first qualitative balance of the effects of enlargement. The main repercussions are discussed and, to the extent that it is possible, an attempt is made to estimate their dimension. Secondly, we turn our attention to regional repercussions. These are attributed to the adjustment of structural and cohesion funds, but the discussion is also framed in the context of the Community budget and the main characteristics of the way that it has been formulated from 1989 until the end of the current planning period in 2006. In order to speak with precision of the effects of enlargement at this level, however, we must (and do) undertake an analysis of the problematic budgetary outlook for the 2007-2013 period.

We examine the repercussions of trade adjustment, which is another source of effects that merit particular attention (and are generally problematic). The Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) benefit from a competitive differential based on labour costs, and the effect of this differential is being exacerbated by large transnational companies who are pursuing an aggressive policy of setting up production facilities in these countries. Their implications for the flow of direct foreign investment toward Spain is also analysed.

We study the effects of enlargement on migratory flows from the CEEC. Immigration is a pressing issue and the subject of a great deal of concern in Spain, but we argue that is it likely that Spain will be the country most affected by migration, given its geographical location and other factors.

Finally, we attempt to transfer these effects (in regional, trade and direct investment terms) to the macroeconomic framework. This is done by using a series of hypotheses to express these alterations in terms of changes in the exogenous parameters or variables of an econometric model of the Spanish economy. We seek to quantify these effects for the main macroeconomic balances (GDP, employment, prices and salaries, etc.).

We also include an extensive strategic analysis based on the main findings of the study. Particular emphasis is placed on ways in which Spain can limit the risks that come with enlargement while making the most of the opportunities it generates.

European Economic Integration, Spain, Econometric Simulations

Abstract:
In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978-31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbour nonlinear predictors, transforming their forecasts into a technical trading rule, whose profitability has been evaluated against the traditional (linear) moving average trading rules, considering both interest rates and transaction costs. Our results suggest that in most of the cases a trading rule based on a nonlinear predictor outperforms the moving average, both in terms of returns and in terms of the ideal profit and the Sharpe ratio profitability indicators.

Nearest-neighbour prediction methods, Technical trading rules, Exchange rates

Abstract:
In this paper we assess whether some simple forms of technical analysis can predict stock price movements in the Madrid Stock Exchange. To that end, we use daily data for General Index of the Madrid Stock Exchange, covering the thirty-one-year period from January 1966-October 1997.

Our results provide strong support for profitability of these technical trading rules. By making use of bootstrap techniques, we show that returns obtained from these trading rules are not consistent with several null models frequently used in finance, such as AR(1). GARCH and GARCH-M.

Stock market, Technical trading rules

Abstract:
The evolution of financial data shows a high degree of volatility of the series, coupled with increasing difficulties of forecasting the shorter is the time horizon, when using standard (i.e., based on linear models) forecasting methods. Some alternative forecasting methods for non-linear time series, based on the literature on complex dynamic systems, have been recently developed, which can be particularly useful in the analysis of financial time series. In this paper we present a summary of some of these new techniques, and then show some applications to the analysis of several financial series (i.e., exchange rates, stock prices, and interest rates), which illustrate the usefulness of the approach. Since non-linear forecasting methods require the usage of very long time series, the availability of high-frequency data for these variables make them the best candidates among economic time series for the application of this methodology.

Nearest-neighbour prediction methods, Financial markets, Technical trading rules

Abstract:
This paper investigates the profitability of a simple and very common technical trading rule applied to the General Index of the Madrid Stock Market. The optimal trading rule parameter values are found using a genetic algorithm. The results suggest that, for reasonable trading costs, the technical trading rule is always superior to a risk-adjusted buy-and-hold strategy.

Technical trading rules, Genetic algorithms, Security markets

Abstract:
In this paper we investigate the profitability of non-linear trading rules based on nearest neighbor predictors. Applying this investment strategy to the New York Stock Exchange, our results suggest that, taking into account transaction costs, the non-linear trading rule is superior to a risk-adjusted buy-and-hold strategy (both in terms of returns and of Sharpe ratios) for the 1998 and 1999 periods of upward trend. In contrast, for the relatively "stable" market period of 2000, we found that both strategies generate equal returns, although the risk-adjusted buy-and-hold strategy yields a higher Sharpe ratio.

Technical trading rules, Nearest neighbor predictors, Security markets

Abstract:
In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978-31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbour nonlinear predictors, transforming their forecasts into a technical trading rule, whose profitability has been evaluated against the traditional moving average trading rules, considering both interest rates and transaction costs. Our results suggest that in most cases, a trading rule based on a nonlinear predictor outperforms the moving average, both in terms of returns and in terms of the ideal profit and the Sharpe ratio profitability indicators.

Nearest-neighbour prediction methods, Technical trading rules, Exchange rates

Abstract:
In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978-31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbor nonlinear predictors, transforming their forecasts into a technical trading rule, whose profitability has been evaluated against the traditional moving average trading rules, considering both interest rates and transaction costs. Our results suggest that in most cases, a trading rule based on a nonlinear predictor outperforms the moving average, both in terms of returns and in terms of the ideal profit and the Sharpe ratio profitability indicators.

Nearest-neighbor prediction methods, Technical trading rules, Exchange rates

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the relevance of non-linear predictors of high-frequency data in foreign exchange markets. To that end, we apply nearest-neighbour (NN) predictors, inspired by the literature on forecasting in non-linear dynamical systems, to exchange-rate series. The forecasting performance of univariate and multivariate versions of such NN predictors is first evaluated from the statistical point of view, using a battery of statistical tests. Secondly, we assess if NN predictors are capable of producing valuable economic signals in foreign exchange markets. The results show the potential usefulness of NN predictors not only as a helpful tool when forecast daily exchange data but also as a technical trading rules.

Nearest-neighbour prediction methods, Exchange rates, Technical trading rules

Abstract:
We use a machine learning algorithm called Adaboost to find direction-of-change patterns for the S&P 500 index using daily prices from 1962 to 2004. The patterns are able to identify periods to take long and short positions in the index. This result, however, can largely be explained by first-order serial correlation in stock index returns.

Direction-of-change predictability, Machine learning algorithms, Adaboost

Abstract:
In this paper we assess the empirical relevance of an expectations version of purchasing power parity in forecasting the Dollar/Euro exchange rate. This version is based on the differential of inflation expectations derived from inflation-indexed bonds for the Euro area and the USA.

Using the longest daily data a for both the Dollar/Euro exchange rate and for the inflation expectations, our results suggest that, with few exceptions, our predictors behave significantly better than a random walk in forecasts up to five days, both in terms of prediction errors and in directional forecast.

Forecasting, Purchasing Power Parity, Exchange rates

Abstract:
This paper presents a selective survey on some recent empirical attempts to test the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) to explain exchange-rate movements in the main currencies, as well as the econometric methodology used in such tests. Finally, we offer some encouraging results regarding the forecastability of exchange rate using PPP.

Exchange rates, Purchasing Power parity, Cointegration

Abstract:
We examine the relation between monthly stock returns and lagged publicly available information. Our primary objective is to determine whether the variables proposed in the literature to predict the equity premium contain incremental information to an investor. We find that certain variables do provide incremental information and may have some practical value. Although this not necessarily imply that return-forecasting models may be used to predict future stock returns, some model specifications may be used to predict future stock movements.

Stock return predictability, stock movement predictability

Abstract:
Previous empirical studies have shown that predictive regressions in which model uncertainty is assessed and propagated generate desirable properties when predicting out-of-sample. However, it is still not clear (a) what the important conditioning variables for predicting stock returns out-of-sample are, and (b) how composite weighted ensembles outperform model selection criteria. By comparing the unconditional accuracy of prediction regressions to the conditional accuracy (conditioned on specific explanatory variables masked), we find that cross-sectional premium and term spread are robust predictors of future stock returns. Additionally, using the bias-variance decomposition for the 0/1 loss function, the analysis shows that lower bias, and not lower variance, is the fundamental difference between composite weighted ensembles and model selection criteria. This difference, nevertheless, does not necessarily imply that model averaging techniques improve our ability to describe monthly up-and-down movements' behavior in stock markets.

Stock return predictability, Model averaging, Bias-variance decomposition

Abstract:
In this paper we present new evidence on the positive correlation between returns from technical trading rules and periods of central bank intervention. To that end, we evaluate the profitability of a trading strategy based on nearest-neighbour (nonlinear) predictors, which may be viewed as a generalisation of graphical methods widely used in financial markets. We use daily data on the US Dollar/Deutsche mark and US Dollar/Japanese Yen covering the 1 February 1982-31 December 1996 period. Our results suggest that the exclusion of days of US intervention implies a substantial reduction in all profitability indicators (net returns, ideal profit measure, Sharpe ratio and directional forecast), being the reduction grater in the US Dollar-Deustchmark case than in the US Dollar-Japanese yen case.

Central bank intervention, Technical trading rules, Exchange rates

Abstract:
In this paper we present new evidence on the positive correlation between returns from technical trading rules and periods of central bank intervention. To that end, we evaluate the profitability of a trading strategy based on nearest-neighbour (nonlinear) predictors, which may be viewed as a generalisation of graphical methods widely used in financial markets. We use daily data on the US Dollar/Deutsche mark and US Dollar/Japanese Yen covering the 1 February 1982 - 31 December 1996 period. Our results suggest that the exclusion of days of US intervention implies a substantial reduction in all profitability indicators (net returns, ideal profit measure, Sharpe ratio and directional forecast), being the reduction grater in the US Dollar-Deustchmark case than in the US Dollar-Japanese yen case.

Central bank intervention, Technical trading rules, Exchange rates

Abstract:
This paper presents an empirical evaluation of the economic effects of the Structural Funds received by the Spain's Objective 1 regions through the Community Support Framework (CSF). The empirical results suggest that the funds have significantly contributed to economic growth, as well as to wealth and employment creation. Compared to a scenario without CSFs, the successive investment programmes from 1989 to 2006 would represent an average increase of 0.56 percentage points in the growth rates of the Spanish recipient regions. This increase would translate to an average increase in per capita income of 425 euros at 1999 prices. In terms of the labour market, the CSF has maintained or generated an increase of 1.46 per cent in employment compared to an alternative scenario without CSF. This in turn would represent an average reduction of 0.74 percentage points in the unemployment rate during the aforementioned period.

European Union, Structural Funds, Regional Convergence, Spain

Abstract:
In this paper, we propose a new test, based on the stability of the largest Lyapunov exponent from different sample sizes, to detect chaotic dynamics in time series. We apply this new test to the simulated data used in the single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and chaos generated by Barnett et al. (1997), as well as to several chaotic series, both for small and large samples. The results suggest that the new test has a high power against different stochastic alternatives (both linear and nonlinear), and also performs well in small samples.

Chaos, Nonlinear Dynamics, Lyapunov exponents, Bootstrapping

Abstract:
This paper examines the linkages between US and Latin American the stock markets during the 1995-2002 period using recently-developed cointegration techniques that allow for structural shifts in the long-run relationship. Our results suggest that, if we apply conventional cointegration tests, we only find a long-run relationship in the cases of Brazil and Mexico for the Dow Jones (DJ) index and in the case of Brazil for the Standard and Poor's 500 (SP500) index. In contrast, if we introduce the possibility of structural breaks, we find strong evidence in favour of such relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Venezuelan indices and the DJ index after the 1998 financial turmoil, and between the Brazilian and Mexican indices and the DJ index before such turbulence, while some marginal cointegration is detected between the Mexican and DJ indices from February 1998. Additionally, we find evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Mexican indices and the SP500 index from August 1998, April 1999 and October 1999, respectively, and between the Brazilian and the SP500 indices before November 1997, as well as some marginal cointegration between the Mexican and SP500 indices before October 1999. The results suggest that the gains from international diversification for investors with long holding periods is limited.

Stock market, Cointegration, Structural change

Abstract:
We use cointegration tests that determine endogenously the regime shift to test for bilateral inflation rate convergence in the European Countries in the 1961-1997 period. When applying cointegration tests that do not allow for structural breaks, only for seven of the fourteen countries examined we find evidence of a long run relationship between their inflation rates and the German inflation rate. In contrast, our innovative approach provides strong evidence in favour of such relationship for all countries, except for Greece and Portugal.

Inflation, Cointegration, Structural change

Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between market integration and price convergence in international markets. Using a panel data set of consumer price indices (general and by groups and classes), we examine how European market integration has affected cross-country dispersion in the European Union.

Price dispersion, Market integration, European Union

Abstract:
An enlarged EU requires a reformulation of the basic structure that has so far characterized the EU's institutions, finances and common policies. This analysis focuses on the proposal that the EU Commission was made to reform the cohesion policy. There are significant economic implications for Spain and the economic agents must properly understand the key issues and terms of the Commission's proposal and also of the process that enlargement has set in motion in terms of community cohesion - a process that occurs simultaneously as average income increases in Spain as a whole and in each of the country's regions in relation to the average income in the Union, both before and after enlargement.

EU regional policy, EU cohesion, Spain

Abstract:
We propose a new test to detect chaotic dynamics, based on the stability of the largest Lyapunov exponent from different sample sizes. This test is applied to the data used in the single-blind controlled competition tests for nonlinearity and chaos that were generated by Barnett et al. (1997), as well as to several chaotic series. The results suggest that the new test is particularly effective when compared to other stochastic alternatives (both linear and nonlinear). The test size is one for large samples, although for small sample sizes it diminishes below the nominal size for two out of the three chaotic processes considered, what is not a surprise given some well-known properties of such processes.

Chaos, Nonlinear Dynamics, Lyapunov exponents, Bootstrapping

Abstract:
This paper examines price convergence in the European Union Car market over the period 1995-2005. The results indicate that there is a clear evidence of price convergence among the EU15 countries, but not before 1999. Moreover, countries of the Economic and Monetary Union started convergence previously to the EU15 as a whole. Finally, exchange rate changes has significantly contributed to price dispersion over time across countries.

Market integration, Automobiles, European Union, Euro, Exchange rates

Abstract:
This paper examines the regime changes in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS), applying the duration model approach to weekly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete EMS history. When using the non-parametric (univariate) analysis, we found that for those regimens with long durations, the ERM would have been relatively stable, while for the (more common) regimes associated with short durations would have been more unstable. The probability of maintaining a certain regime is estimated to be 0.685. When applying a parametric (multivariate) analysis to investigate the role of other variables in the probability of a regime change, we conclude that the interest rate differential with Germany and the magnitude of the realignment would have negatively affected the duration of a given regime, while credibility would have positively influenced such duration. Finally, when distinguishing between groups of currencies, we observe that those in the core are more stable than those in the periphery, obtaining evidence against equality of survival functions among these groups of currencies.

Duration models, exchange rates, European Monetary System

Abstract:
This paper offers an empirical evaluation of the economic effects of the European Structural and Cohesion aids (or Community Support Frameworks, CSF) received since 1989, or yet to be received until 2006, by Spain, amounting to a total of almost 100 billion euros at 1999 prices. To that end, we use the HERMIN-Spain model. Our results suggest that these CSF packages have contributed significantly to Spanish economic growth and to increase the levels of income and employment. The successive aid programmes received between 1989 and 2006 imply an average increase of almost 0.4 percentage points in the real annual growth rate of the Spanish economy with respect to the situation that would have ensued without the European grants. This translates into an average increase in per-capita income of 638 euros (at 1999 prices) over the entire period, and of 1027 euros per-capita if we refer to the period 2000 through 2006. Without the structural aids, in 2006, the Spanish per-capita income index relative to the average for EU-15 would be, ceteris paribus, almost six percentage points lower. As for the labour market, we estimate that the structural and cohesion funds have, in average terms over the period 1989-2006, generated and/or maintained 2.07 per cent more employment than what would have been the case without them, or some 300 thousand jobs, which implies an average reduction in the rate of unemployment of 0.2 percentage points over the same period. The paper ends with a simulation of the likely consequences to be expected from a reduction in structural and cohesion grants suffered by many Spanish regions that will cease to belong to the Objective 1 club after 2007 as a result of their natural or statistical convergence.

European Union, Structural Funds, Cohesion Fund, Community Support Frameworks, Macroeconomic Evaluation

Abstract:
This paper analyzes whether volatility changes in the real exchange rates (RERs) of the OECD industrial countries are associated with a specific nominal exchange rate regime. To that end, we examine RER behavior during the period 1960-2003, thereby covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalized floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on Hansen's (1997) approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (1993) and Andrews and Ploberger (1994). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. For most countries in our sample, there is evidence in favor of the non-neutrality of the nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility.

Exchange rate regimes, real exchange rate, volatility

Abstract:
This paper examines the degree and recent evolution (1988-2001) of export-price dispersion among European Union countries. It also explores the effect of exchange rates on export-price dispersion by reviewing the experience of some European countries that participated in the exchange rate stability zone. The results indicate that export-price dispersion across European Union countries was usually lower than across OECD countries. Moreover, although there is little evidence of convergence, this is stronger across European Union countries. Finally, even though price dispersion was often lower across European Union countries where exchange rates have been relatively stable than across countries with relatively volatile exchange rates, exchange-rate stability has not significantly contributed to export-price convergence across participating countries over the sample period.

export market integration, European Union, exchange rates

Abstract:
This paper examines the degree of export-price dispersion among European Union countries and its evolution in the recent past (1988-1999). The paper also analyses the likely impact of the European Monetary Union on export-price convergence by looking at the past experience of European countries that participated in the exchange rate stability zone. The results indicate that export-price dispersion across European Union countries was usually lower than across OECD countries. Moreover, although there is little evidence of convergence, it is stronger across European Union countries. Finally, the results cast doubts on the hypothesis that the monetary union by itself will increase price convergence.

Export market integration, European Union, Single currency

Abstract:
This paper examines the degree of convergence in social protection registered in the European Union during the 1970-99 period. To that end, we use Eurostat data and study the long-run properties of the data set using time series analysis. Our results indicate that there is no evidence of long-run convergence in Social Protection expenditure to GDP ratios. However, we do find evidence of catching-up with respect both to Germany and the EU average for all countries belonging to EU12, except for Greece.

Social Protection Expenditure, Convergence, European Union

Abstract:
This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, we have considered both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering the complete EMS history (1979-1998). Our results suggest that the level of international reserves, the real interest rate and right-wing governments would have positively affected the credibility of a given central parity, while the unemployment rate and the inflation rate would have negative influenced such credibility.

Credibility, political variables, exchange rates, european monetary system

Abstract:
This paper examines the regime changes in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), by applying the duration model approach to quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete European Monetary System (EMS) history. We first make use of the nonparametric (univariate) analysis, finding that the probability of maintaining the current regime decreases very rapidly for the short durations to register then smoother variations as time increases. Second, we apply a parametric (multivariate) analysis to investigate the role of other variables in the probability of a regime change. In particular we consider three alternative theoretical frameworks to select potential explanatory variables: First- and second-generation models of currency crisis and an eclectic model that combines the explanatory variables suggested by both models. Our results suggest that the Weibull specification of the eclectic model would be the more appropriate to fit our data set, finding that the real exchange rate, the interest differentials and the central parity deviation would have negatively affected the duration of a given regime, while credibility, the level of international reserves and the price level in the anchor country would have positively influenced such duration. Finally, we do not find evidence of observed heterogeneity associated to currencies with different behaviour in the sample, nor the existence in our sample of unobserved heterogeneity caused either by misspecification or omitted covariates.

Duration analysis, Currency crises, European Monetary System

Abstract:
This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an eclectic specification that enables us to explicitly incorporated political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The estimations are based on quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete history of the European Monetary System. Our results suggest that both economic and political factors are important determinants of the ERM currency policies. Concerning economic factors, the real exchange rate, the interest differentials and the central parity deviation would have negatively affected the duration of a given central parity, while credibility, the level of international reserves and the price level in the anchor country would have positively influenced such duration. Regarding political variables, elections, central bank independence and left-wing administrations would have increased the probability of maintaining the current regime, while unstable governments would have been associated with more frequent regime changes. Moreover, we show how the political augmented model outperforms, both in terms of explanatory power and goodness of fit, the model which just incorporates pure economic determinants.

Duration analysis, Political variables, Exchange rates, European Monetary System

Abstract:
In this paper, we propose a new methodology for the assessment of EU's regional policies, making use of the HERMIN macroeconometric model. A major feature of our approach is that it allows us to compare the actual evolution of the economy under analysis, with and without European funds, so that we should be able to assess in a more accurate way the effectiveness of the EU aid over the period of analysis. An empirical application of the methodology is also offered, using as a case study an Objective 1 Spanish region, Castilla-La Mancha, traditionally backward but showing in last years a special dynamism.

EU's regional policies, community support framework, Hermin-Spain model, Castilla-La Mancha

Abstract:
The paper presents an overview of several studies about the credibility of the European Monetary System (EMS). These studies compare different credibility indicators in terms of their ability to detect exchange rate crises in a target zone. Marginal credibility seems to be the best measure for capturing the main events. The credibility indices are also applied to the short experience of the current ERM-II. The history of the EMS suggests that, in an environment of financial deregulation and high capital flows, such an exchange rate system can only operate as a temporary regime that is moving towards a full monetary union, since it may be too fragile as a permanent monetary regime.

Credibility, Exchange Rates, Target Zones, European Monetary System

Abstract:
This paper provides some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). We differ from previous studies in the literature in three main respects. First, our main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of which have never been applied before to all of the currencies under study. This allows us to strengthen the results obtained in this paper. Second, we analyse a longer period than that of previous studies, covering the complete EMS history. Third, we have carried out a comparison of the prediction qualities of the different indicators, in order to explore their ability to capture the main ERM events (realignments, changes in the fluctuations bands and speculative pressures). Fourth, we apply the indicators to the experience of the new, modified ERM linking the currencies of non-euro area Member States to the euro, showing the relevance of this approach in the near future with the enlargement of the European Union.

Credibility, Target zones, European Monetary System

Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Spanish peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate. To this end, several statistical approaches, proposed by previous studies, are applied to the period 1965-1998. The results indicate the existence of implicit regimes other than a free-floating one.

Exchange rate regimes, implicit fluctuation bands, exchange rates

Abstract:
In this paper quantitatively explores the role of immigration in the evolution of housing prices in Spain and its autonomous regions for the period 1995-2007. We use estimations of an inverted model for housing demand with and without immigrant flows. The results we have obtained suggest that housing prices in Spain are overvaluated in relation to the value determined by its fundamental variables in a 14.75 percent if we exclude immigrant flows, and in a 7.37 percent if we take them into account. We can consequently conclude that the eventual correction in housing prices to which the Spanish economy is exposed would not be as intense as it has been suggested by some international organisations. For the different autonomous regions, the greater differences in the estimations of overvaluated housing prices are found in Murcia, Canary Islands, Valencian Community, Madrid, Catalonia, Andalusia and Balearic Islands, all of them regions particularly attractive for foreign immigrants as they offer the best employment opportunities. These regions also have a relatively high level of tourist activity and represent a favoured location by many European citizens for the acquisition of a second residence.

Housing prices, Spain, Autonomous regions

Abstract:
This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results would suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April-December 1980 and March-December 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such implicit bands indicates the high degree of confidence attributed by economic agents to the evolution of the the Yen/Dollar exchange rate within the detected implicit band rate, thus lending further support to the relevance of such implicit bands.

Exchange rate regimes, Implicit fluctuation bands, exchange rates

Abstract:
In this paper we present new insights in the literature on the credibility of the Irish pound in the European Monetary System (EMS), adding value to the previous research, which has focused either on the correlation between Irish interest rates and Irish Pound/Pound Sterling exchange rate (therefore examining the credibility in an indirect way) or on the traditional credibility indicators. In contrast, we try to provide some additional evidence making use of a wider set of credibility indicators, including the marginal credibility that has not been examined before for the Irish case.

At the same time, we extend the analysis by considering in our sample the more recent events in the EMS history, particularly the broadening of fluctuation bands in 1993. Our results suggest credibility gains (i) after the realignments of the Irish pound on 4 August 1986, on 12 January 1987 and on 1 February 1993; (ii) after the broadening of the fluctuation bands to ? 15% on 2 August 1993; and (iii) around the devaluation of the Spanish peseta and the Portuguese escudo on 6 March 1995. On the other hand, we detect some occasional reductions in credibility, notably before the monetary turmoil registered in September 1992 and after the Italian lira rejoined the Exchange Rate Mechanism on 25 November 1996.

Finally, it is interesting to note that our results suggest that the marginal credibility measure seems to be the best credibility indicator to capture the main events of the sample period. Therefore, the use of an econometric technique that allows the parameters to change along time is quite appropriate for the study of credibility in a target zone (i.e., stabilizing interventions by the central banks, speculative movements by private agents, and realignments modify the parameters of the process along the period studied), justifying further the contribution of our paper.

Credibility, Target zone, Irish Pound

Abstract:
This paper is devoted to the past, present, and future of the European Monetary System (EMS). After examining its background, the paper reviews the structure and operation of the EMS, as well as the theoretical framework used to explain exchange-rate movements inside official fluctuation bands. Moreover, we offer some comments and assessment on the EMS in the light of empirical papers examining the EMS from both the credibility and currency crisis approaches, with special emphasis on the survival of the central parities. Finally, drawing on the EMS experience, we make some remarks on new EMS, linking the currencies of non-euro area Member States to the euro, both current European Union Member States and future candidates.

Credibility, Currency crises, Exchange rates, European Monetary System

Abstract:
This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results would suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April-December 1980 and March-December 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such implicit bands indicates the high degree of confidence attributed by economic agents to the evolution of the Yen/Dollar exchange rate within the detected implicit band rate, thus lending further support to the relevance of such implicit bands.

Exchange rate regimes, implicit fluctuation bands, exchange rates

Abstract:
This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The estimations are based on quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete history of the European Monetary System. Our results suggest that both economic and political factors are important determinants of the ERM currency policies. Concerning economic factors, the money supply, the real exchange rate, the interest in Germany and the central parity deviation would have negatively affected the duration of a given central parity, while credibility and the price level in Germany would have positively influenced such duration. Regarding political variables, elections, central bank independence and left-wing administrations would have increased the probability of maintaining the current regime, while unstable governments would have been associated with more frequent regime changes. Moreover, we show how the political augmented model outperforms, both in terms of explanatory power and goodness of fit, the model which just incorporates pure economic determinants.

Duration analysis, Political variables, Exchange rates, European Monetary System